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Are The Red Wings In Hockey Limbo?

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The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin writes an interesting piece on the status of the Detroit Red Wings–a quarter of a century perennial playoff participant who seems to be at a crossroads. There hasn’t been much written about it though there are the obligatory “will the Red Wings finally miss the playoffs” prediction columns every season since Nick Lidstrom retired. And there’s good reason for that.

Since the retirement of Lidstrom, the Red Wings have been stuck in neutral. Though a “tough out” in 2013 and 2015, the Red Wings were bounced quickly in 2014 and 2016. Worse, they haven’t been viewed a legitimate contender since at best, the 2011-2012 NHL season–where they lost in five games to the Nashville Predators in the first round.

Larkin argues that the only person who can answer the question of the Wings’ Limbo status is architect and general manager Ken Holland. The Wings’ GM had a busy summer trading Pavel Datsyuk’s contract and adding several players in Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott while re-signing Darren Helm, Petr Mrazek, Luke Glendening, Danny DeKeyser, and Drew Miller. But the moves were critiqued, especially the long term deals for players who were hardly setting the world afire on the stat sheet.

Larkin writes that Holland has a point when he says the Red Wings are not scraping the bottom of the barrel. They have a number of young core players, but with Ott, Vanek, and Miller all taking up roster space, it makes the margin of error thin for those young players in Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha. Larkin also reports that Holland feels that if a few breaks went the Wings way, perhaps they beat the Blackhawks in 2013 or the Lightning in 2015.

But that misses the point. Hockey is a sport that often comes down to luck. Many would argue that the Wings received their share of fortunate bounces during the years they won the Cup.

The point, made by many fans, is that the Red Wings haven’t been in a spot to even challenge for a Cup. Further, there has been a loyalty given to players in the Wings system or past-their-prime veterans that makes Holland feel like it’s 1999 again. In many ways, it appears that the Wings are committed to a “just barely make the playoffs” mentality and then hoping for the best. Several of Holland’s quotes all but support this.

Larkin takes a bullish view,  saying that the Wings have an upside to them. But a prominent voice of Red Wings fans has made a strong point several times this summer–wondering if the financial decisions combined with the insistence on keeping veterans at the expense of younger, hungrier players will doom the team to the very long rebuild Holland loathes. Simply put: what’s the plan and even more terrifying to some fans–what will the result be?

We’ll all see soon.

Red Wings Snapshots: Vanek, Cholowski

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Though many blasted the term and money used to re-sign Darren Helm, and the idea to bring Steve Ott into the fold, there were some who appreciated the Detroit Red Wings signing of Thomas Vanek. While the Red Wings addressed a need by signing center Frans Nielsen to a six-year deal, the signing of Vanek was one that many labeled as a low risk, high reward. Vanek, who was bought out by Minnesota, inked a one-year, $2.6MM contract and is expected to boost a moribund Red Wings power play that struggled throughout the season and into the playoffs.

There is also a faction of the Wings fan base that believes Vanek prevents a young forward, namely Andreas Athanasiou or Anthony Mantha, from getting a full time spot on the roster. To answer this question and others, MLive’s Tom Mitsos quantified Vanek’s performance and possible future performance by using advanced stats. Mitsos found that as many have pointed out, Vanek appears to be on the downside of his career. Besides the obvious slide in goals, points, and being bought out by his previous team, the advanced measures of his ability don’t bode well for the 32-year-old forward.

Mitsos lists Vanek’s Corsi For percentage as the first indicator. Vanek registered a CF% of 45.45, which is considered below average in terms of puck possession metrics.  Further, Mitsos reveals a similar comparison when looking at it from a three year glance. Mitsos also points out that current forward Tomas Tatar, who has been speculated as a possible trade target, has Vanek beaten in almost every major category.

That’s not good, especially since the Red Wings are looking to move pieces to acquire a #1 defenseman, something the team has lacked for nearly five seasons. Moving a player who outpaces another who looks to be a one-year rental hardly helps the long term health of a franchise.

Mitsos concludes that should Vanek tally 20 goals this upcoming season, it would go a long way in justifying the signing. But a deeper statistical dive shows exactly what many suspected: Vanek’s better years are far behind him.

Other Red Wings news:

  • 2016 first round draft pick Dennis Cholowski has a lot to like about him writes MLive’s Brendan Savage. The Red Wings front office labeled him an “elite thinker” on the ice, and also spoke highly of his puck possession and offensive abilities. Cholowski is headed to St. Cloud State where he’s expected to develop into a top four defenseman the Red Wings can rely on to produce points. While Ken Holland cautioned fans that the Wings would take their time developing Cholowski, there’s no question their eyes are glued to the young defenseman as a future solution to their current woes on the blue line.

Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Red Wings

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Though Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski  was initially surprised by David Backes signing in Boston, further review made it understandable. Backes adds another physical, goal scoring center to a team that already includes David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. Wyshynski does warn that Backes arrives with a lot of miles and although he’s only missed 16 games since 2008, his style of play makes the five-year deal somewhat risky near the end of the contract. Regardless, the Bruins beefed up down the middle and have a more favorable look against the best teams in the division–and conference.

Other notes from the Atlantic:

  • Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman continues his mastery of signing the team’s high end talent and Tampa Times writer Joe Smith reports that Nikita Kucherov should be the next name for Yzerman to cross off his list. Smith writes that Yzerman is optimistic a deal will get done and predicts that Kucherov could expect Filip Forsberg numbers in the range of a six-year, $36MM deal. But if there’s anything to be seen with Yzerman, it’s that he’s become a master of negotiations. Between Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman taking what was considered significantly less money to stay in Tampa, it should be expected that Kucherov will possibly take less to stay with a team that Yzerman continues to build into an Eastern Conference force.
  • The Maple Leafs were very quiet with the exception of signing Matt Martin to a four-year, $10MM deal Friday. TSN’s Kristen Shilton writes that Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello felt that Martin filled a need for the rebuilding organization. The move was also precipitated by bench boss Mike Babcock wanting more toughness on the roster. The Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornsby writes that while the team didn’t come out and say it, Martin’s role will be that of a bodyguard for #1 overall pick Auston Matthews, and other Leaf youngsters. Lamoriello did admit that the signing was one to make his younger players feel “freer” on the ice.
  • While the Red Wings inked Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek and Steve Ott, their moves weren’t applauded by everyone. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa wonders if general manager Ken Holland’s magic touch is beginning to wear off, and writes that the Wings’ top man shouldn’t be finished with his offseason moves quite yet. Colleague Bob Wojnowski agrees, adding that the Wings are a team “scrambling to find their way” and along with Krupa, opines that that the fanbase is growing restless with Holland’s loyalty to players like Darren Helm, who notched a five-year, $19.5MM deal before free agency opened. Craig Hagerman goes even further, writing that the Wings were one of three teams that actually got worse following Friday’s free agent frenzy. While he lauds the Nielsen signing, he questions the re-signing of Helm (registering a 30 point season twice in his career), Ott (no goals last season), and Vanek (bought out for underachieving).

Red Wings Re-Sign Darren Helm

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The Red Wings have reportedly agreed on a five year, $19.25MM deal with C Darren Helm, reports NHL analyst Aaron Ward.

Helm has spent his entire nine year career with the Red Wings after being a 5th round pick (132nd overall) in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.  Last season, he picked up 13 goals and 13 assists in 77 games while adding a goal in five postseason contests.  The speedy forward was also a cornerstone of Detroit’s penalty kill.

For his career, Helm has played in 443 games, scoring 72 goals and adding 90 assists.  We had him ranked 28th on our Top 50 UFA list, projecting a 3 year, $9.75MM contract.

Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press was the first to report a deal was close earlier this morning.

Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Lightning, Bruins

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The Detroit Red Wings are apparently talking more with Darren Helm after many analysts figured his time in Detroit was up. This all changed after Steven Stamkos was locked up in an eight-year deal with the Lightning. Craig Custance tweets that both Helm and the Wings will talk until tomorrow when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. An afterthought after Drew Miller signed a one-year extension, Helm could fill a need at center now that Stamkos is off the market, though it will not be the type of production Stamkos would have generated. Helm, 29, has spent his entire career with the Red Wings.

Nick Cotsonika wonders where the Red Wings go from here after not even getting a chance to talk with Stamkos. Cotsonika reports that Stamkos would have been the first bona-fide superstar signing for Detroit in quite some time, and that a quarter-century of success has its drawbacks in terms of not drafting generational talent due to having lower draft picks. The Red Wings, Cotsonika writes, will have to be deft at not only acquiring the right free agent, but outbidding other teams without overpaying.

Other Central Division notes:

  • Speaking of Stamkos, Kevin McGran writes how the 25-year-old never intended to leave Tampa in the first place. Though he had the chance to be a “hometown hero,” Stamkos opted to stay with the Lightning where the opportunity to win a Cup remains very strong. McGran reports that not only did Stamkos sign for a very cap friendly $8.5MM, he did so knowing it was about $3MM less than what he could have received on the open market.
  • DJ Bean reports that the Bruins would have preferred to trade Dennis Seidenberg instead of buying out his contract. Bean writes that a source told him that general manager Don Sweeney never approached Seidenberg with a trade scenario. Seidenberg’s contract included a no trade clause until December. Bean surmises that this either meant no one was interested in taking Seidenberg’s contract or if willing to take it, they would have expected a return similar to the Blackhawks Bryan Bickell trade that included Teuvo Teravainen.

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