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Offseason Checklist 2023

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were high for the Senators this season.  After acquiring Alex DeBrincat at the draft and signing Claude Giroux in free agency, a developing forward group got a lot more dangerous.  They added a capable veteran goalie in Cam Talbot as well.  The hope was those moves would help propel them into the playoffs.  Instead, the team struggled considerably early on while dealing with some untimely injuries to key players.  Even after making another big acquisition at the trade deadline in Jakob Chychrun, they ultimately came up short once again, extending their drought to six straight seasons.  While they’re heading in the right direction, Ottawa still has some work to do this summer.

Resolve Ownership Situation

First and foremost, this team needs to get its new owner in place.  Binding bids including a deposit were due to be submitted on Monday, bringing the process one step closer to a resolution.  From there, the winning bidder, likely following another round of negotiations, has to be approved by the Board of Governors and lock in their financing before the purchase can be finalized.

Why does this matter from an on-ice perspective?  It remains to be seen if the new ownership group will want to continue with Pierre Dorion as GM or bring someone else in.  That uncertainty then carries over to D.J. Smith and the rest of the coaching staff; would a new owner and possibly new GM want to clean house?  The sooner the new owner is in place, the better from an organizational certainty standpoint.

Deal With DeBrincat

When the Senators picked up DeBrincat a year ago, they thought they would be getting a quality top-line scorer.  While he didn’t have a poor season, he didn’t exactly live up to expectations either.  After picking up 41 goals in his final season with Chicago, that output dipped to 27 in 2022-23 although he set a career-high in assists with 39 to help him finish fourth on the team in scoring.  That’s not terrible output by any stretch but it would be fair to suggest that they were expecting more from him.

DeBrincat is set to become a restricted free agent this summer for the final time as he’s one year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  He’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility.  On top of that, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rule which is the base salary of the final year of his contract.  While his cap hit the last three years was $6.4MM, his salary this season was $9MM.  That means the Senators must tender him a $9MM qualifying offer, something that Dorion has already they will do if it comes to that point.

So, will it get to that point?  That’s the big question.  Does DeBrincat want to do a long-term deal with Ottawa?  Those are discussions that Dorion will need to have with his representation now to be ready to pivot, if necessary.  If the 25-year-old appears to be leaning toward a one-year deal to hit the open market, it’s quite possible that the Senators will turn around and look to move him.  That’s a move that’s a lot easier to make before the draft in late June while allowing the acquiring team to have time to negotiate a long-term agreement before the qualifying offer comes into play.

If DeBrincat opts to re-sign, there’s a good chance that a one-year deal would simply be him accepting the qualifying offer.  While Ottawa could opt to take him to arbitration, a move that could allow their offer to come in at 85% of the qualifier ($7.65MM), such a move would be antagonistic toward longer-term discussions so they might not want to go that route.  Similarly, if DeBrincat is qualified, there isn’t much of a chance for him to land considerably more than $9MM in an arbitration hearing, lessening the chances of him opting to go that way either.

Meanwhile, a long-term agreement is also likely to come in close to the $9MM mark.  Ottawa’s highest-paid player next season is Tim Stutzle who has an AAV of $8.35MM.  The Sens would certainly like to get DeBrincat in below that mark but it will probably take more than that to get him to agree.  Regardless of which route both sides wind up going, getting this resolved sooner than later needs to be a priority.

Sign A Goalie

When Dorion moved then-unproven prospect Filip Gustavsson to Minnesota for Talbot last offseason, they were hoping that he and Anton Forsberg would form a steady tandem between the pipes.  Instead, Talbot battled injuries throughout the year while Forsberg took a significant step back from his 2021-22 performance.  While Forsberg is still under contract for two more seasons at a $2.75MM AAV, Talbot is a pending unrestricted free agent and has already been told that he won’t be back.  That means there’s a spot to fill in the crease.

Internally, Mads Sogaard is still viewed as Ottawa’s goaltender of the future.  However, the 21-year-old has just 64 career appearances at the AHL level and still has two years of waiver exemption remaining.  While some young goalies can step in full-time in the NHL at that age, teams generally like to slow-play their netminders, allowing them to get frequent starts in the minors.  It would make sense for the Senators to take that approach with Sogaard so penciling him in as Forsberg’s tandem mate shouldn’t be the top plan.

Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dorion look to find another Talbot-like netminder, one that he can sign for a year or two at a price point similar to Forsberg’s.  That would up the floor in terms of production while allowing Sogaard the development time that he could still benefit from.  It’s not a great UFA market for goaltenders but there are several second-stringers that should be available to choose from as things stand.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them kick the tires on the trade market as well but as long as they feel that Sogaard is their guy in the next couple of years, it’s hard to imagine they’d pay a high price to trade for someone to cover between now and then.

Rebuild The Bottom Six

With Ottawa missing the playoffs despite their upgrades up front, one might think that they had a lack of production from their top players.  But they did have six forwards notch 20 goals while their top five forwards all had at least 62 points.  Not many other teams can say that.  However, they were in the bottom half of the league for goals scored.

The reason for that?  They simply didn’t get much scoring from their bottom six with the exception of Shane Pinto (who was often pressed into top-six duty) or Derick Brassard, who’s a pending UFA.  Mathieu Joseph didn’t score a single goal at even strength all season long, not the type of production they wanted from someone making nearly $3MM.  Parker Kelly was an effective penalty killer but scored one goal in 55 games.  Austin Watson and Dylan Gambrell had just 11 points apiece.  This is one area that can reasonably be improved.

The good news for Dorion is that there are some open roster spots to work with.  Joseph, Kastelic, and Kelly are signed while Pinto will be a restricted free agent.  From there, however, there are openings to fill with Watson, Gambrell, and deadline acquisition Patrick Brown all set to hit the open market while Julien Gauthier, another late-season add, is a restricted free agent but whose arbitration eligibility makes him a non-tender candidate.

Prospect Ridly Greig could fill one of those spots which would certainly give them a boost offensively although he could benefit from more time with AHL Belleville as well.  Recent signing Jiri Smejkal could be in the mix as well but might be it for internal options at this point.  That will leave at least a couple of spots for players currently outside the organization to try to make their mark.  There are often value contracts available for bottom-six forwards closer to training camp so this might be something that the Sens opt to slow-play.

Defensive Decisions

Dorion is going to be busy with his defense as well.  Jake Sanderson will be eligible for a contract extension in July and given that Ottawa has typically moved to sign their core pieces a year early where possible (Brady Tkachuk being the exception), it’s reasonable to think that they’ll do so here.  However, it could be difficult since he has just one NHL year under his belt.  It also remains to be seen if they’ll be able to afford another big-ticket deal on the books.  At a minimum, expect the team to initiate discussions on that front even if those talks don’t lead to the 20-year-old putting pen to paper on a deal.

Meanwhile, decisions need to be made regarding three other young rearguards.  Erik Brannstrom is once again a restricted free agent and this time, he’ll have arbitration eligibility.  When Vegas drafted him, the 23-year-old was regarded as a future offensive threat.  That could still happen but Brannstrom has just four goals in 190 career NHL appearances so far.  Is he still part of their future?

The answer to that question might be dependent on the answer to this next one.  Are Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson ready for full-time roster spots next season?  Both players were at least somewhat highly-touted prospects themselves but have yet to establish themselves at the NHL level.  However, they’re both eligible for waivers next season.  Are the Sens ready to pencil each of them onto the roster?  It’s unlikely they’ll make it back to Belleville so if they’re not comfortable with them being up full-time, one or both of those prospects could become trade candidates.

There’s a further domino effect as well that pertains to Travis Hamonic.  The pending unrestricted free agent has expressed a desire to return but what happens with the three youngsters will dictate whether that’s doable, assuming the two sides can also agree on what type of a dip in pay he’ll likely be heading for after making $3MM the last two seasons.  With free agency roughly six weeks away, they’ll need to make calls on these players fairly soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Vancouver.

After the team showed considerable improvement late in 2021-22 under Bruce Boudreau, there was hope that the Canucks could get back into the playoff picture.  Instead, things went off the rails quickly with a long-speculated coaching change dominating the headlines for an uncomfortable amount of time.  While there was improvement following the change that saw Rick Tocchet take over, they still came up short.  GM Patrik Allvin has his work cut out for him this summer if he wants to get Vancouver back into the playoff picture.

Create Cap Space

If Allvin and the Canucks are going to be able to do anything in terms of improving this franchise this summer, they need money to do so.  At the moment, they are projected to be over the cap next season, per CapFriendly, with multiple players still to re-sign.  That’s not ideal, to put it lightly.

There could be some help through LTIR.  Tanner Pearson’s playing future appears to be in serious question after recovery from his hand injury hasn’t gone anywhere near as well as planned.  If he misses all of next season, his $3.25MM would then land on LTIR.  Then there’s Tucker Poolman, who has dealt with lingering concussion trouble for the last couple of seasons and got into just three games this year.  If those symptoms persist, his $2.5MM could land on there as well.  Those two placements would at least give them enough cap space to fill out a full roster but still not make any material improvements.

Winger Brock Boeser has been in trade speculation for more than a year now and even though he has stated that his desire is to remain in Vancouver, that’s unlikely to change with a $6.65MM AAV for two more years.  Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli recently reported (video link) that the team is actively trying to move Conor Garland who carries a $4.95MM cap charge for three more seasons.  While he’s a quality forward, the remaining term on that deal will hurt his value.  Moving one of them would clear up some money plus a full-time spot for Nils Hoglander but Vancouver will be hard-pressed to get strong value in a return with how tight many teams are cap-wise.

Defensively, Tyler Myers and his $6MM price tag is one that could be on the chopping block.  Notably, the bulk of his deal is paid out in a signing bonus during training camp and it stands to reason that he’d have more value then than he would today.  Of course, that doesn’t help in terms of creating space for early-summer spending but it’s another avenue they could potentially pursue.

There are holes on this roster to be filled.  But to fill them, they need cap space.  To get that money, they’re going to have to move out a player of some significance, thereby creating another hole to fill.  That’s going to be a tough needle to thread.

Work On Pettersson Extension

While some players underachieved offensively under Boudreau, that wasn’t the case for Elias Pettersson who was off to a strong start before the coaching change, notching 19 goals and 35 assists in 44 games.  There might have been some concern that a coach that was interested in restoring some structure to Vancouver’s game might cut down Pettersson’s numbers.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, he was even more productive in the second half, tallying 20 goals and 28 helpers in 36 games, allowing him to reach the 100-point mark for the first time in his career.  He was one of just 11 players league-wide to accomplish the feat.  In short, he has become a legitimate top-line center.

In 2021, on the heels of an injury-plagued platform year, the two sides eventually agreed on a three-year bridge deal, one that carried a $7.35MM AAV while being heavily backloaded.  The salary structure is notable as the relatively new qualifying offer rule applies to it; he’s owed the lower of 120% of the AAV or $10.25MM, the 2023-24 salary.  120% of the cap charge is $8.82MM and if you’re looking for a starting point for negotiations, there it is.

Realistically, the price tag is going to come in well above that, especially based on recent center signings including Islanders pivot Mathew Barzal who checks in at $9.15MM despite only passing the 65-point mark once in his career.  It’s quite possible that a long-term agreement ultimately eclipses the $10MM mark.

There’s a case to be made that Vancouver should wait until next year to see if Pettersson’s production is repeatable.  However, the salary cap is expected to have a sharper increase in 2024 and with comparables often being based on the percentage of the cap it takes up, that could drive the asking price upward at that point along with his arbitration rights.  But, there’s value in taking care of your franchise players quickly and having early certainty about what he’ll cost moving forward can only help Allvin as he looks to reshape their cap picture.  Accordingly, expect them to take a run at extending Pettersson when he’s eligible to sign a new deal in July.

Look Into Miller Move

The seven-year, $56MM contract extension that J.T. Miller signed back in September was supposed to take his name out of the rumor mill.  However, with the Canucks struggling considerably out of the gate, that wasn’t the case as there was considerable speculation that he could be moved prior to the trade deadline.  While that didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name come up once again, especially if they fail to find a suitable cap-clearing trade for one of their other pieces.

However, it’s important to note that there is a deadline for this to happen.  Included in the extension is a full no-move clause which kicks in on July 1st.  Vancouver could have allowed that NMC to roll over in his set-to-expire deal but opted not to.  While it’s not impossible to move a player with trade protection, the options are certainly more plentiful when the player doesn’t have any form of trade restrictions.

While Miller wasn’t able to equal his 99-point output from a year ago, the 30-year-old still had a productive campaign, notching 32 goals while picking up 82 points in 81 games.  Add that to a career-best 55% success rate at the faceoff dot and you have a player that is producing at a level worthy of the $8MM AAV.  As a result, expect to see his name surface in trade speculation leading up to the draft as there should be some interest in him, especially with a free agent market that’s lacking in quality middlemen.

Defensive Decisions

Vancouver has a couple of decisions to make with their pending restricted free agent blueliners.  Both Ethan Bear and Travis Dermott are arbitration-eligible this summer with arbitration eligibility.  Both of them have shown flashes at times but neither of them is a guarantee to be tendered.

Let’s start with Bear, a player who has seemingly been on tenuous footing in recent years in Edmonton, Carolina, and now Vancouver.  The Canucks picked him up in an early-season trade and he helped to stabilize an injury-riddled back end.  However, the 25-year-old is best utilized in a limited role and a $2.2MM qualifying offer is on the pricey side for someone in that role, not to mention the granting of arbitration rights that the offer entails.  Given their cap situation, can they afford that offer and the risk of a hearing?  Bear has expressed confidence that he will get something done but it will be interesting to see if he winds up with a deal before the qualifying offer deadline to take the threat of a hearing off the table.

As for Dermott, he showed some upside in the past with Toronto but that hasn’t carried over to his time with Vancouver.  Lingering concussion symptoms resulted in multiple IR stints and he played in just 11 games this season.  Dermott was the first player Allvin acquired after being named GM so it’s clear he thinks Dermott can help this team.  But with a $1.75MM qualifier and arbitration rights, that seems too pricey for them.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Canucks try to work out a one-year deal worth less than that amount, allowing them to give the 26-year-old one more chance.

Vancouver also has a decision to make on pending UFA blueliner Kyle Burroughs.  The 27-year-old played in a career-best 48 games this season, picking up five points and 165 hits on the third pairing.  He fits in a depth role but it’s possible that his fate is tied to Bear or Dermott’s as they might not be able to keep all of them around.  As a result, Burroughs might have to wait a while to see if he’ll be staying with his hometown team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

It would be fair to say that the 2022-23 season didn’t go as planned for St. Louis.  A veteran-laden squad, there was an expectation that they’d be squarely in the playoff mix.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, St. Louis was one of the bigger sellers leading up to the trade deadline before going and doing some of their summer shopping early with the acquisitions of Jakub Vrana and Kasperi Kapanen.  While those pickups suggest they aren’t intending to bottom out next season, they’ll have some work to do this offseason to try to move back up in the standings.

Round Out Coaching Staff

Following a disappointing season like this one, some had wondered if there would be big changes behind the bench.  That wasn’t the case as Craig Berube remains as head coach but he’s in need of a pair of assistants as Craig MacTavish and Mike Van Ryn were both dismissed the day after the season.  MacTavish had been brought in to replace Jim Montgomery (who became the bench boss in Boston) while van Ryn had been on the staff for the past five seasons.

MacTavish was responsible for the penalty kill early on in the season before Van Ryn, who also ran the defense, took over.  In the end, the penalty kill had a success rate of just 72.4%, good for 30th in the league.  The Blues could opt to promote from within to fill those vacancies with AHL Springfield head coach Drew Bannister and associate coach Daniel Tkaczuk being the top options to move up.  Otherwise, they’ll look outside the organization to round out their staff.  This one isn’t a very high priority but it’s something GM Doug Armstrong will have to work on in the coming weeks.

Move Scandella

The optics for Marco Scandella’s time in St. Louis haven’t been great.  The Blues acquired him from Montreal back in 2020 for a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-rounder.  On the surface, that seems fine but the Canadiens had acquired him for a fourth-rounder alone just six weeks earlier.  Yes, salary retention was a factor but it seemed like a high price to pay nonetheless.  The four-year, $13.1MM extension he signed less than two months later also seemed on the high side.  That deal has one season left heading into 2023-24 and it’s going to be a problematic one.

It isn’t that Scandella is a particularly poor defender.  He’s a bit more of an older-fashioned rearguard who doesn’t jump into the play; he’s a stay-at-home player.  Those aren’t in high demand anymore but he’s a situational player that can play on the penalty kill.  There’s still a use for that type of player, just not at $3.275MM.  With St. Louis having minimal cap space (less than $7MM per CapFriendly), that’s a premium for a sixth defender that they can no longer afford.

Of course, there aren’t many other teams that can afford that premium either.  As a result, the Blues will have to incentivize a team to trade for him, further adding to those poor optics.  Alternatively, they may have to look into buying out the final year of his contract.  Such a move would save them $2.75MM next season but add $1MM to the books in 2024-25.  In theory, they could waive Scandella and send him down in October which would free up $1.15MM in room but most of that would have to go towards a replacement body, making that scenario not a great one either.  Frankly, none of them are ideal but if Armstrong needs some extra flexibility this summer, this is their best chance to get it and a move involving Scandella will need to be made.

Add Forward Help

One of the things that St. Louis will need cap space for is to add help offensively.  The team parted with long-time veterans Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly prior to the trade deadline and while both players were potentially on their way out the door anyway as free agents, they didn’t exactly acquire impact pieces in those swaps, instead opting for futures-based returns.  They were a mid-pack scoring team this season and with those two gone (plus Ivan Barbashev), there are some holes to fill offensively.  They can hope for bounce-back years for Vrana and Kapanen but those two alone aren’t going to fill the void.

It’s not a great free agent market this summer for teams looking to add impact pieces up front but St. Louis does have three first-round picks at their disposal after acquiring top-rounders in both the Tarasenko and O’Reilly swaps.  The period leading up to the draft in June could therefore be an ideal opportunity for them to acquire a top-six piece that’s either signed or under team control for several more years that can help replace the production from the veterans that were moved out.

Additionally, the Blues could also stand to add some help down the middle.  They experimented with Pavel Buchnevich and Kapanen playing at center down the stretch to mixed results.  It’s one thing to try these things when you’re just playing out the stretch but it’s unlikely that they view those two as full-season options at the position.  Even among bottom-six options, those players would take up the bulk of the remaining cap space that currently exists.

Shop More Defense

Moving out Scandella fixes a short-term problem but St. Louis still has a particularly pricey back end.  Their top-four defenders (Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy) are all signed through at least 2025-26 at a combined cap hit of $23.5MM.  That’s a lot of money, especially when you add in a minimum of three other blueliners to round out the roster.  While those four are certainly capable players, it would be fair to suggest that they’re not exactly getting the best bang for their buck.

On top of that, the Blues do have some promising youngsters that are on the cusp.  Scott Perunovich dealt with injuries for most of the season but should be ready to be a regular next season.  Tyler Tucker didn’t look out of place in his first taste of NHL action either and could be ready to be a full-timer on the roster a year from now.  Finding room for them would be ideal, giving St. Louis another reason to explore a swap.

The easiest of the four to move is likely Leddy.  It’s unlikely that they’ll want to move Faulk, Parayko’s term remaining on his deal hurts his value, and Krug is coming off a year to forget which would make it very difficult to move him for fair value.  Leddy is the one on the shortest deal (through 2025-26) at the lowest cost ($4MM) which would make him the logical choice if Armstrong decides to try to funnel more money into his forward group to tackle the needs up front.  There might be a short-term dip while Perunovich and/or Tucker get accustomed to a full-time spot but in the end, such an approach might be better for them in the long run.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

Many NHL fans will remember the dynastic Detroit Red Wings teams that took home four Stanley Cups between 1997-2008. Unfortunately, those days are behind America’s most winningest hockey franchise, and the likes of Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper, and Niklas Kronwall, have all transitioned from the ice to the front office. With the Red Wings finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for their strenuous rebuild, we’ll look at some boxes they should check this offseason. 

Find Time For Prospects

One of the most out-of-nowhere trades from this year’s deadline was the Red Wings shipping promising defenseman Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks for the New York Islander’s first-round pick in this year’s draft. Arguably the team’s top defenseman at the time of the trade, finding time for prospects with a higher potential than Hronek is an intelligent move for Detroit to continue to make. 

To start, we’ll walk through a comparison of some of the top five forward selections from 2017-2021. In Group A, we have Tim Stutzle, Matthew Beniers, Nico Hischier, Brady Tkachuk, and Elias Pettersson. In Group B, we’ll compare Alexis Lafreniere, Barrett Hayton, Andrei Svechnikov, Kaapo Kakko, and Quinton Byfield. The averages for Group A: 273 GP, 225 P, 0.83 PPG, and 18:15 ATOI. For Group B: 215 GP, 112 P, 0.52 PPG, 15:02 ATOI. 

Although there is a major learning curve transitioning to the professional level, younger players are benefiting immensely from averaging more time on ice. With high-end prospects such as Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson, and William Wallinder right on the cusp, it is time for the Red Wings to swing more trades (much like they did with Hronek) to find adequate ice time to lead to the maximum growth for these players. 

Two players that immediately come to mind that the Red Wings should be seeking to move on from would be forwards Joe Veleno and Filip Zadina. Both players were drafted in the first round of the 2018 NHL draft, and have yet to establish much on-ice value for Detroit up to this point. With more notable prospects coming up the pipeline, and these two players likely still maintaining some value due to their young age and draft selection, the Red Wings should be looking to deal both of them this summer.

Establish Consistent Scoring

Since the 2019-20 season, Detroit has had a massive problem putting the puck in the net. The team has yet to finish outside the bottom ten in GF/G since the 2018-19 season. Luckily for Detroit, there should be players outside the organization that should help them improve in this category. 

In this year’s upcoming free agency period, the high-end scoring talent has already been thinned out, with the likes of David Pastrnak, Joe Pavelski, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Bo Horvat having already signed extensions. Of the remaining players, only Alex Killorn, Patrick Kane, Max Domi, J.T. Compher, and Vladimir Tarasenko would present real opportunities for Detroit. However, with the average age of the team only getting younger with prospect graduation, none of these players seem to fit the Red Wings’ timeline. 

Enter the trade market. Looking ahead at this offseason’s potential trade options, there are three players that seem to stand out as viable solutions to Detroit’s goal-scoring issues. Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames, Alex DeBrincat from the Ottawa Senators, and Brock Boeser from the Canucks. 

All three players fit into the Red Wings’ timeline, they have all shown an ability to score goals, and they all find themselves in precarious situations on their current teams. The Flames and Canucks are headed toward serious shakeups this offseason, and DeBrincat was very noncommittal on signing a contract extension in Ottawa. 

If any of these players become available, it would make sense for Detroit to swing a big trade to bring one of them in. 

Goaltending Upgrades

After acquiring goaltender Ville Husso from the St.Louis Blues after a brilliant 2021-22 season, the Red Wings may have thought their goaltending issues were finally shored up for the time being. Unfortunately, the move did not pan out as they may have hoped. 

This season, all of Detroit’s three goalies, Husso as well as Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg, all held a Quality Start Percentage less than 50% and produced a Goals Saved Above Average of -13.5, -4.4, and -8.2, respectively. In more topical statistics, none of their goaltenders produced a GAA of 3.00 or less, and none were able to sport a SV% of .900 or more.

After trading up in the 2021 draft to select goaltender Sebastian Cossa at 15th overall, it is evident that he will be the goaltender of the future in Detroit, and is likely sitting above another goaltending prospect, Carter Gylander, in their prospect depth chart. 

For the time being, with this year’s free agent market for goaltenders sporting the likes of Joonas Korpisalo, Antti Raanta, Semyon Varlamov, and Adin Hill, Detroit must once again be on the lookout for a better stop-gap until Cossa is ready to make the jump to professional hockey. 

Name An AHL Head Coach

As the Red Wings are prepared for an influx of talent to the minor league level, Yzerman highlighted the need for a winning culture when it comes to prospect development. In mid-April, after a last-place finish in the AHL’s Central Division, the Grand Rapids Griffins announced they would not be renewing the contract of head coach Ben Simon.

One of the top coaching candidates that comes to mind is Norm Bazin, the current head coach of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell of the Hockey East conference. Since taking over as head coach for the 2011-12 season, Bazin has accrued a 254-145-39 record, as well as one Frozen Four appearance in 2012-13, losing to the eventual champion Yale University.

With a track record of success, and a clear ability to coach younger players, Bazin would be a prime candidate to take over behind the bench for the Griffins next season. If the team is unable to convince Bazin to coach in Grand Rapids, Yzerman, and Assistant General Manager Shawn Horcoff will have plenty of work to do this summer in finding the best candidate.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Washington.

For the majority of Alex Ovechkin’s time in Washington, the Capitals have been a team that has been in the thick of the playoff hunt.  It looked like that would continue through the first half of the season before they completely bottomed out down the stretch.  It seems unlikely that Washington will engage in a rebuild while Ovechkin is around so GM Brian MacLellan will be tasked with getting his veteran core back into the thick of things in 2023-24.  Here are some items that will be on his to-do list in the coming months.

Hire A Head Coach

First things first.  After mutually parting ways with veteran bench boss Peter Laviolette, the Capitals need to find a new head coach.  Generally speaking, a veteran-laden team will often want to have an experienced coach with a track record of getting short-term success.  There are some options out there if they opt to go that route including Gerard Gallant, Claude Julien, and even former Washington coach Bruce Boudreau.  Andrew Brunette, a current New Jersey assistant, doesn’t have as long of a track record as the others but could garner some consideration.

However, there will be plenty of speculation that will link them to Toronto assistant coach Spencer Carbery.  The 41-year-old has long ties to the Capitals organization, going back to his days coaching their ECHL and AHL affiliates before leaving for the Maple Leafs two years ago.  Carbery is viewed as an up-and-coming coach and given MacLellan’s familiarity with him, it’s reasonable to infer that he’ll be a strong candidate.  Washington has also been linked to Lightning assistant Jeff Halpern so even with a veteran roster, they’ll be casting a wide net to find their next head coach.

Sort Out Kuznetsov’s Future

It’s not often that a team that’s expected to try to be in the playoff mix the following season looks into the possibility of trading its number one center but it certainly feels like MacLellan is going to have to look into doing so.  A report from Match TV in Russia back in March suggested that Evgeny Kuznetsov twice requested a trade with a move clearly not coming to fruition.  Last month, it was revealed that he changed agents, further adding fuel to that fire.

The 30-year-old had one of his best seasons in 2021-22, picking up 54 assists and 78 points in 79 regular season games while picking up five points in their first-round exit.  However, he failed to carry that over this year with his point-per-game rate dropping to 0.68, the second-lowest over his nine full NHL seasons.  Along the way, he started to lose some playing time to Dylan Strome who, with a five-year, $25MM extension in hand, is now entrenched as a big part of Washington’s core moving forward.

Of course, even if Kuznetsov wants to be moved, it’s something that’s easier said than done.  Notwithstanding his partial trade protection, he has two years remaining on his contract which carries a $7.8MM AAV.  At his level of production from 2021-22, he’s worth that money.  At this season’s production, however, it’s a considerable overpayment.  What helps to mitigate the cap hit somewhat is that it’s a shorter-term agreement than what most centers will command in free agency.  A team looking for a short-term stopgap might prefer a trade for Kuznetsov over giving someone else a cheaper but longer-term commitment.

That all said, moving Kuznetsov would also open up a significant hole down the middle, especially with Nicklas Backstrom no longer the high-end playmaker he once was and Strome not being a true top middleman.  If they decide to rebuild, it’s not as much of a concern but if they are looking to compete for a playoff spot next season, they will need to find a way to convince Kuznetsov that staying is the best idea or find a way to bring back a top-six center either as part of the trade return or in another swap.

Create Cap Flexibility

Even after selling at the trade deadline, cap space is at a premium for the Capitals this summer after handing out new, more expensive deals to wingers Sonny Milano and Nicolas Aube-Kubel plus defensemen Nick Jensen and Trevor van Riemsdyk.  The end result is an increase in spending by $4.975MM based on their cap hits next season compared to 2022-23.  Accordingly, Washington enters the summer with just over $7.3MM in cap room, per CapFriendly, assuming that the Upper Limit only goes up by $1MM as expected.

A decent chunk of that remaining money will go toward re-signing RFA blueliner Martin Fehervary and after the 23-year-old logged 20 minutes a night this season, there’s a good chance his next deal will pass the $2MM mark.  It’s also likely that they’d like to re-sign pending UFA winger Connor Brown who was limited to just four games before suffering a season-ending ACL tear.  The injury might limit Brown’s market but even so, someone’s likely to offer at least a one-year, ‘show me’ deal around the $3.6MM cap charge he had on this now-expiring deal.  Re-sign those two and there might not even be enough to round out the roster with players on minimum-salaried contracts.

Again, a Kuznetsov trade could help on that front but if they don’t go that route, they will have to find other ways to free up cap space.  Moving winger Anthony Mantha and his $5.7MM cap charge would help but after another tough season, his deal isn’t one that teams will be lining up to acquire.  T.J. Oshie has two years left at $5.75MM but at the age of 36 and partial no-trade protection, that’s not an easy move to make either.  But if the Capitals want to add anyone of consequence this summer, they’re going to need to free up some cap room to make that happen.

Work On Wilson Extension

This season was a bit of an up-and-down year for winger Tom Wilson who missed the first half of the year after recovering from offseason ACL surgery.  When he was in the lineup, however, he was relatively productive, notching 13 goals in just 33 games, a 32-goal pace which was well above his career rates.  While he has a checkered history with the Department of Player Safety, Wilson has also been one of the most prominent power forwards in the league in recent years with his current deal often serving as a benchmark for deals for similar players in recent years.

That contract, a six-year, $31MM agreement, has just one year remaining on it which makes him eligible to sign an extension starting in July.  Wilson’s offensive production on this deal has been decent – 93 goals and 98 assists in 289 games – but, as it was before, offense alone won’t dictate the price of this next agreement.  He’ll be 30 when his next deal kicks in, meaning that a max-term extension of eight years could very well be on the table.  While eight years for a power forward might not sound great, it stands to reason that an agreement of that length could also help to keep the AAV of the deal a little lower.

Both Wilson and MacLellan have made it clear that they want to get a new deal in place.  They’ll have plenty of time this summer to see if they find a contract that both sides are happy with and ensure that a key part of their forward group will be sticking around for the long haul.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

The Flyers were hoping that John Tortorella would come in, shake things up, and help get them back into the playoff picture.  While the new bench boss made some waves, they dealt with several key veterans missing the season and they weren’t able to really get into the mix for a spot in the postseason, coming up short for the third straight year, the first time that has happened for them in nearly three decades.  One change of note was made late in the campaign and this offseason will likely bring more of those.

Finalize Front Office

When Chuck Fletcher was fired shortly after the trade deadline, it was decided that his job would be split into two positions, a GM and a team president.  Decisions will need to be made on both fronts for who will be in those roles.

On the GM side, Daniel Briere was named to the interim post when Fletcher was let go.  He is the presumptive favorite to remain in that role and considering he hasn’t been on the job that long, there isn’t much of a body of work to go off of.  However, Briere has been considered an up-and-coming executive for a few years now and it seems like only a matter of time before the interim tag is lifted.

As for who will be the president, that’s a search that’s likely to take some time.  Assuming Briere remains as GM, Philadelphia will likely want someone with front office experience to provide a complementary skill set.  Veteran GMs Ray Shero and Doug Wilson have been suggested as possible candidates while Dave Poulin, Scott Mellanby, and Emilie Castonguay are also believed to have been under consideration.  There are likely others involved as well.  Finding the right person to work with Briere to lead this new direction will be critical.

Start The Shakeup

For me, the next step with this organization is: You don’t start adding players until you subtract them. I think there needs to be some subtraction.

This isn’t a quote from a disgruntled fan or reporter, nor is it one from Briere or his predecessor.  No, it’s a quote from Tortorella about seven weeks ago.  Of course, that came after the trade deadline so there wasn’t anything that could be done on the subtraction front at that time.  Now, some of those moves can be made beyond letting free agents like James van Riemsdyk hit free agency this summer.

At the top of the list appears to be Kevin Hayes.  The veteran center got off to a strong start this season, hovering near the point-per-game mark which helped him make it to the All-Star Game.  However, he saw his playing time slip in the second half which also featured a change in position and the end result was a final few months that were rather unproductive.  Speaking with reporters after the season, Hayes indicated that he thinks he’ll be on the move in the near future.  He would certainly fit in on many teams but with three years remaining on a contract that carries an AAV of over $7.1MM, not many of those squads will have the cap space to take him on.  Accordingly, it seems likely that Philadelphia will have to pay down some of the deal, take back some matching money, or both to help facilitate a move.

Then there’s blueliner Anthony DeAngelo.   After a strong showing in Carolina in 2021-22, he received a two-year, $10MM deal from the Flyers to be a big part of their back end.  Instead, he languished defensively and was a healthy scratch for the final five games of the season.  The 27-year-old has made it clear that he wants to remain with the Flyers but he isn’t seeing eye-to-eye with Tortorella, it doesn’t do anyone any favors for him to be a high-priced scratch at times next season.  Speaking of underachieving blueliners, Rasmus Ristolainen is a contract they’d likely like to get out of but with four years left at $5.1MM, such a move might be hard to make.

There was some hope the coaching change last summer would help put Ivan Provorov back on an upward trajectory to get him back to the form he showed early in his career.  That didn’t happen, even with his playing time being dropped a bit to the lowest it had been since his rookie campaign.  Is he part of the long-term future on the back end still?  With two years left on his deal at $6.75MM, there should be interest in him if Briere looks to make a bigger shakeup.

Decide Hart’s Future

A few years ago, Carter Hart made an immediate impact in the pros and after his first two seasons, it looked as if the Flyers had their franchise cornerstone in place between the pipes.  But things haven’t gone as well since then over the past three seasons.  Accordingly, with a shakeup believed to be on the horizon, some have wondered if the 24-year-old could be included in that, especially in a relatively weak UFA market at the position.  Alternatively, is the time right to try to lock him up long-term when his asking price would likely be lower now compared to next summer if he has a better showing in 2023-24?

Hart has one year remaining on his bridge deal, one that carries a $3.979MM AAV with a qualifying offer of $4.479MM in the 2024 offseason.  For a starting goalie, that’s a more than reasonable rate.  A long-term agreement would likely push that price tag past the $5MM mark at a minimum, likely closer to $6MM.  Is that something that the Flyers are willing to pay?  If not, the idea of a trade starts to look a little more palatable.

The challenge with moving Hart is that there isn’t a clear-cut replacement in the system.  Samuel Ersson did alright in his first taste of NHL action but it’s a 10-start sample size.  Felix Sandstrom has underwhelmed in his 25 NHL contests.  They had high hopes for Ivan Fedotov but after required military service prevented him from coming to North America this season, it’s fair to wonder if he’s ever going to cross the pond.  Without a top-end prospect in place, moving Hart would carry some risk unless they’re getting another young goaltender in return.

With Hart being signed for another year, Briere (assuming he remains as GM) can kick the can down the road and defer this decision to next season.  But if it’s determined that Hart is going to remain Philadelphia’s goalie of the present and future, extension discussions should pick up soon; he’s eligible to sign one as of July 1st.  On the flip side, if they’re going to shop him, Hart with two years of control probably has more value than Hart with one year of control a year from now.  With that in mind, determining Hart’s future with the franchise becomes an important part of their summer.

Re-Sign Frost

A year ago, Morgan Frost was still looking to establish himself as a capable and consistent NHL forward.  That resulted in him taking a one-year, $800K bridge deal.  It’s safe to say that Philadelphia got good bang for their buck on that agreement as the 23-year-old finished fourth on the Flyers in scoring with 19 goals and 27 assists in 81 games.

Frost is now a restricted free agent once again but still does not have salary arbitration eligibility.  Since he played just two games in the 2020-21 campaign, that year doesn’t count toward the four years required to gain that eligibility.  That gives Philadelphia a little more leverage here.

Are they ready to give Frost a long-term deal?  That doesn’t seem likely at this point.  Instead, another bridge agreement makes sense here that buys both sides a longer look to see if he can become a consistent top-six fixture.  This time around, that deal should check in around three times his one from last year, even without arbitration rights.  Frost is three years away from UFA eligibility so they could opt for a two-year pact here as well which would push the cap hit a bit higher while giving both sides some certainty.  It’s not as pressing of an issue as some of the more prominent RFAs around the league but Frost is the most prominent player that the Flyers will want to re-sign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

It was an interesting year for the Coyotes.  A team that looked like it was built to bottom out, Arizona actually had a winning record on home ice and even a late-season struggle didn’t drop them into the bottom five of the standings.  While there is still a long way to go in their rebuild, there is cause for optimism moving forward.  That is, assuming one major item gets checked off their checklist later this month.

Crank Up The Marketing

Generally speaking, a team’s promotion of something wouldn’t be classified as newsworthy.  But later this month, Tempe voters will vote on the proposed Tempe Entertainment District.  Voters have to vote on three propositions, one to amend the general plan for the property which is currently a landfill, one to approve the rezoning for the project, and one to enter into a contract with the development company.  If any one of those three propositions is defeated, the project will fall through and Arizona’s arena search will be dealt a serious blow.

The full project is expected to cost roughly $2.1BB and covers the construction of a new arena, along with high-end retail, upscale restaurants, boutique hotels, and more than 1,900 luxury residential units in the city.  While city council is on board with the project, there has been some vocal opposition to it as well, making it far from a foregone conclusion that it’s approved.

Accordingly, the Coyotes are likely to pick up the push to generate some positive momentum for voting which closes on May 16th.  A yes vote on all three propositions could help secure their future in the desert, a boon for a franchise that has basically been chasing its financial tail for more than a decade now.  Meanwhile, a no vote would call their long-term future into question as there is no financially viable way for them to stay in a college arena, even if it’s one that they’ve enjoyed some early success at.

Shop Schmaltz

Over the past few years, there has been a significant exodus of players from the Coyotes but one player who has lasted so far is Nick Schmaltz.  The way his contract is structured has seen Arizona realize considerable savings in his salary relative to his cap hit, $6.9MM over the first four years of the deal.  The pendulum is set to swing the other way as he’s owed over $24MM in salary in the remaining three seasons.  For a budget-conscious team like Arizona, this is particularly noteworthy.

Their financial situation aside, there’s a hockey-related reason to look into moving the 27-year-old.  GM Bill Armstrong admitted back in March that he feels Arizona is nearing the halfway point of its rebuild.  (For context, they’ve missed the playoffs three straight years after qualifying for them in the bubble.)  With 47 draft picks over the next four years, it stands to reason that they’re still several more seasons away from truly contending.  With that in mind, does it make sense to hold onto a player who isn’t likely to be part of their core once they get to the point of trying to contend?

Schmaltz has strung together two straight strong, albeit injury-riddled campaigns.  After picking up 23 goals and 36 assists in 63 games in 2021-22, he followed that up with 22 tallies and 36 helpers in 36 contests this season.  At a minimum, that’s strong second-line production and a $5.85MM AAV for a capable second middleman is more than reasonable.  Of course, his salary could very well deter some other budget-conscious franchises but that shouldn’t stop the Coyotes from generating a strong market for Schmaltz, especially with three years left at that cap hit.

No, Arizona doesn’t have to move Schmaltz now.  They could easily hold onto him and revisit things closer to the trade deadline.  But if they’re looking to keep payroll costs down as much as possible to offset a lack of ticket revenue (which has played a role in them trading for multiple LTIR players to capitalize on only paying the uninsured portions of their salaries), moving Schmaltz before the puck drops on the 2023-24 campaign would certainly help on that front.

Goaltending Decisions

From the moment that Karel Vejmelka established himself as a viable NHL netminder, there have been questions about his long-term future with the Coyotes.  Even after he signed an extension a little more than a year ago, that didn’t do much to quash trade speculation.  With two years remaining at a team-friendly $2.75MM AAV, there would be considerable interest in the 26-year-old and this deal would be expiring before Armstrong’s stated intended emergence from the rebuild.

By that logic, it could be inferred that Vejmelka is a strong candidate to be moved this summer.  But for all the prospects that Arizona has (and they have a lot of them before even considering the 17 picks in the first two rounds in the next four years), they don’t have a goalie of the future.  Accordingly, they might be better off holding onto him and trying to extend him next summer.  Armstrong will need to decide what the plan is for his top puck-stopper.

Meanwhile, a decision has to be made on Connor Ingram as well.  His first full NHL campaign was a decent one as he posted a .907 SV% in 27 games this season behind a team that wasn’t exactly strong in its own end.  He’s a restricted free agent in July and considering his qualifying offer is barely above the minimum salary, he’d seemingly be a no-brainer to be tendered.  However, the 26-year-old is arbitration-eligible and with the going rate for a capable backup goalie going up considerably in recent years, it’s possible that the award, should it get to a hearing, might be higher than Arizona is comfortable paying.  As a result, Armstrong will likely look into trying to move Ingram’s rights this summer if Ingram’s ask in contract discussions is too high for his liking.

One possible pressure point to factor into these decisions is Ivan Prosvetov’s waiver eligibility next season.  While the 24-year-old has been inconsistent in his brief NHL tenure, they feel he could be a legitimate NHL netminder.  Will they want to open up a spot for him next season over either carrying three goalies or running the risk of losing him on waivers?  If so, that will play a hand in one of Vejmelka or Ingram being moved.

Re-Sign Maccelli

While winger Matias Maccelli didn’t qualify as one of the three Calder Trophy finalists, it doesn’t take away from what was a strong (and surprising) rookie year.  A season after recording just a goal and five assists in 23 games, the 22-year-old became an important part of Arizona’s attack, finishing third on the team in scoring with 49 points in 64 contests while leading all NHL freshmen in assists with 38.

Maccelli is set to become a restricted free agent this summer as his entry-level contract comes to an end.  He doesn’t have arbitration eligibility and is owed a qualifying offer of just over $874K.  It’s safe to say he’ll land a fair bit more than that on his second deal.

In the past, the Coyotes haven’t shied away from signing their core young players to long-term agreements.  If they feel Maccelli is going to play at this level or better moving forward, they’d be wise to try to lock him up now.  However, with barely one full season’s worth of NHL games under his belt, the safer play would certainly be a bridge agreement.  Chances are that’s the path Armstrong will take with Maccelli in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

After finishing last in the league a year ago, expectations were rather low for the Canadiens heading into the season.  While they played better in the second half of 2021-22 under Martin St. Louis, how would the team fare in his first full campaign?  The end result was not much better although Montreal had significant injuries throughout the year once again.  They’re not at a point where they’re likely to push for a playoff spot but they will still have a few things to get through this offseason.

Decision On Gurianov

When the Canadiens opted to pick up winger Denis Gurianov at the trade deadline instead of a draft pick for Evgenii Dadonov, it looked like Montreal was hoping that they could get him going and that he’d be a multi-season asset for the team.  Of course, with a $2.9MM qualifying offer due in June, they’d need to see some steady play to deem him worthy of that offer.

What they wound up getting, however, was a mixed bag.  The 25-year-old had five goals and three assists in 23 games with his new team, a better performance than how he started the year in Dallas.  Extrapolated over a full season, Gurianov’s numbers with the Canadiens would have been 18 goals and 11 assists; a player that gets close to 20 goals is probably worth that qualifying offer.

However, his game-to-game performance varied significantly to the point where it might be risky to tender him at that rate.  If they feel that way, chances are that other teams will too which probably takes a trade off the table.  At that point, the options are to try to negotiate a cheaper one-year agreement or just outright non-tender him.

Gurianov’s track record suggests there should be some interest in him if he makes it to free agency, just at a price tag below $2.9MM.  He had three straight double-digit goal seasons before this one plus a strong playoff performance in the bubble in 2020.  With that in mind, if the Canadiens go to him with an offer below his qualifier, would he be better off testing the open market anyway?  They have just under a couple of months to figure out what will happen with Gurianov.

Re-Sign Caufield

Cole Caufield had a long-term stay on Montreal’s injured list this season as he missed nearly the final three months of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.  Despite that, he still finished tied for the team lead in goals with 26 in just 46 games.  Even missing basically half the season, he still had a strong platform year heading into restricted free agency for the first time in his career.

Despite needing a new deal, Caufield doesn’t exactly have a lot of NHL experience under his belt, just 123 regular season contests, basically the equivalent of a year and a half worth of games.  That makes it a little harder to find a range of comparables on a long-term contract although the seven-year, $49MM deal that Minnesota gave Matt Boldy earlier this season should provide a general floor of what such a move might cost.  Having said that, it stands to reason that if that deal or something close to it was an option for Montreal, an agreement would be in place already.  It also remains to be seen if they will want to use Nick Suzuki’s $7.85MM AAV as an internal cap in discussions.

At a time when many teams are considerably more aggressive than they used to be in terms of bypassing bridge contracts in favor of long-term pacts, it’s possible that the pendulum swings back the other way this summer.  With the expectation that the increases to the salary cap should be more significant starting in 2024-25, Caufield might prefer to take a bridge deal and try to work out a long-term agreement in a couple of years when the cap will be higher.

One thing to note here is that Caufield still has five years of RFA eligibility remaining instead of four as he didn’t accrue a season towards free agency when he came out of college and finished up the 2020-21 campaign.  That sets up a scenario where a bridge agreement could be as long as four years.  In that situation, his camp might push for the type of deal that Dallas winger Jason Robertson received, a four-year contract with a $7.75MM AAV.  Something that is also worth noting is that the two players share the same agent, Pat Brisson.  Without salary arbitration rights, this negotiation could take a while.

Utilize Cap Space

The Canadiens have been capped out the last couple of years but have some pricey contracts coming off the books in Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM) and Sean Monahan ($6.375MM) while Paul Byron and his $3.4MM will also be cleared after the winger was on LTIR all season long.  While Caufield will take up a big chunk of those savings, he’s the only RFA of note that Montreal has.

That at least gives them the option to look to add a player or two in a trade or on the open market; it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to bring Monahan back on a one-year deal as he had fit in rather well before injuries ended his year prematurely.  Alternatively, they’re in a position to potentially look to do what they did with Monahan and take on a contract while being compensated with a draft pick or prospect for doing so.  Assuming they’re willing to go deep into LTIR again with Carey Price’s $10.5MM deal, they might have a couple of opportunities to do so.

Clear Some Clutter

One thing that rebuilding teams typically like to do is create some opportunities for younger players but the Canadiens have quite a few veterans that it could be suggested are taking up some spots.  Wingers Mike Hoffman (one year, $4.5MM) and Joel Armia (two years, $3.4MM) have underachieved while veteran blueliner Joel Edmundson (one year, $3.5MM) is coming off a down year and plays on the left side of the back end, a side that Montreal has a lot of depth at already.

Moving one or two of these players out would open up some roster spots, either for a prospect like Rafael Harvey-Pinard to push for a full-time spot or, if they do take on an unwanted contract, a spot will be needed for that player.  There’s definitely some risk in moving out some depth on a team that has dealt with plenty of injuries the last two seasons but it’s still an avenue they’d be wise to look into.

Back at the trade deadline, GM Kent Hughes acknowledged that he purposely opted to keep one salary retention slot open to give them some more trade options at the draft.  (Salary retention slots used on players on expiring contracts don’t clear until July 1st.)  It stands to reason that this retention slot could be used to try to move out one of these veterans before free agency opens up in July.  Accordingly, the Canadiens could be a team to keep an eye on when it comes to the trade market in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

Expectations were rather low for the Sharks this season as GM Mike Grier signaled that a rebuild was on the way, highlighted by the move that saw Brent Burns go to Carolina.  The team muddled their way through this season and while there were some strong individual performances, San Jose was still near the bottom of the Western Conference.  With them still in teardown mode, their checklist this summer largely revolves around moving out more veterans.

Create Cap Flexibility

Typically, a lot of teams at the bottom of the standings often have cap space at their disposal.  This comes as a result of jettisoning some veterans in favor of using younger players.  That is quite likely the goal for San Jose as well but they’re nowhere near that point yet.

At the moment, assuming the salary cap goes up by $1MM to $83.5MM, the Sharks have about $15MM to work with, per CapFriendly.  They also have upwards of seven spots to fill with that money which doesn’t give them much room to try to go after an impact free agent if they want to expedite things or get involved on the trade front to take on a contract or two while being compensated with draft picks or prospects for doing so.

Grier should also want to keep an eye on 2024-25 this summer as well.  San Jose’s commitments drop to a little under $47MM for that season but that’s with only eight players signed.  Spending less than that amount to sign upwards of 60% of his roster will be difficult, especially if the Upper Limit of the cap jumps that summer, sending salaries upward quicker.  Creating more flexibility for that season is something that will need to be considered as well.

Buyout Decisions

Keeping 2024-25 (and beyond) in mind is likely to impact what San Jose does on the buyout front.  They have several players whose performance could legitimately have them under consideration in defensemen Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Radim Simek plus winger Kevin Labanc.  But doing so adds a lot of dead money to San Jose’s cap when they already have Martin Jones’ buyout on the books through 2027.

Vlasic’s contract has been a bust so far.  He still has three years left on a deal that carries a $7MM AAV which is top-pairing money.  However, the 36-year-old has been more of a third-pairing player in recent years.  A buyout would free up over $5.5MM next season but the structure of the contract means the cap savings would only be $2.8MM in 2024-25 while overall, nearly $16MM in dead cap charges would hit San Jose’s books over six seasons.  That’s a high price to pay someone not to play for you anymore and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Grier wait at least one more year to make the charges a little less drastic.

As for Simek and Labanc, both are entering the final year of their deals so there is no long-term cap consideration at play here.  Simek’s buyout would save $1.3MM on the cap next season while adding $650K in 2024-25.  Meanwhile, Labanc’s would free up nearly $4MM next season but add almost $2MM on the books for 2024-25.  Both were scratched at times this year and could see their spots filled by someone younger and cheaper.

Individually, there’s a case to be made for all three players to be bought out but adding more dead money to the books for 2024-25 when they’re going to have so many spots to fill will have to be considered as well.  Will that wind up being too much of a deterrent?  They have a couple of months to figure that out.

Decide Karlsson’s Future

It’s not often that a 32-year-old player has a career year.  But that’s what happened to defenseman Erik Karlsson this season.  A year after managing 35 points in 50 games, his numbers took off as the veteran tallied 25 goals and 76 assists to lead all NHL blueliners in scoring while making him a contender for his third career Norris Trophy.  In doing so, Karlsson’s name came up in trade speculation although no deal materialized.

Of course, there’s a very good reason for that.  Karlsson has four years remaining on his deal which carries an AAV of $11.5MM, the highest given to a defenseman in NHL history.  In a salary cap world, that’s a hard deal to move at any time but especially in-season.  But now it’s the offseason when deals are a little easier to make.  That will bring Karlsson’s future back to the forefront.

On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine Karlsson’s value getting any higher than it might be now.  On the other hand, with that contract, his trade value might not be all that high.  It’s a contract that Grier will have to pay down to some extent; doing so would encumber two of their three retained salary slots through the 2025-26 campaign, not to mention costing millions in actual salary dollars for a player not to play for them.

A year ago, it looked like Karlsson would have been in the mix for the most untradeable contract in the league.  Now, it looks like they’ll have an opportunity to get some value for him, although if the deal winds up being like the Burns one, a good chunk of the return might wind up simply being cap space.

Goaltending Upgrade

While it might seem counter-intuitive for a rebuilding team to look for a goaltending upgrade, getting a starting netminder has been on San Jose’s to-do list for a while since Jones failed to live up to his old deal.  Former GM Doug Wilson hoped he addressed the vacancy when he picked up Kaapo Kahkonen last year but the 26-year-old has played to a 3.64 GAA and a .890 SV% since being acquired.  He’s under contract for next season at $2.75MM so he’ll be in the mix but as a pending UFA in 2024, Kahkonen isn’t really a long-term fixture at this point.

James Reimer has been a serviceable veteran backup but he’s set to hit the open market this summer and doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate to return.  Meanwhile, veteran Aaron Dell is a serviceable third-stringer but isn’t a long-term solution at the NHL level either.  He’s also a pending UFA.

In terms of their prospects, Eetu Makiniemi showed some promise with the Barracuda this season but isn’t believed to be a starter in the making.  Strauss Mann held his own in his first taste of the minors but isn’t close to being NHL-ready.  San Jose is hoping Magnus Chrona could be part of the solution eventually but he is only starting his pro career next season and also isn’t close to being in the mix.

If there’s an opportunity to acquire a young netminder with some upside in a trade (perhaps as part of a Karlsson swap), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Grier try to do that.  Failing that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them hand out a multi-year contract to a veteran in July to make sure they have a bit of stability at that position while continuing the search for a longer-term solution.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated quickly.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The fact that the Blackhawks struggled this season should have come as no surprise.  They unloaded several key players last summer and continued that at the trade deadline before announcing they won’t be trying to re-sign Jonathan Toews for next year and beyond.  GM Kyle Davidson has largely a blank canvas to work with but with the team still firmly committed to the rebuild, the to-do list isn’t the biggest beyond adding more future assets.  Even so, there are some decisions that will need to be made in the coming months.

Decide Athanasiou’s Fate

When Chicago signed Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou to one-year, $3MM deals mere minutes into free agency back in July, they both seemed like strong candidates to be moved elsewhere at the deadline.  While that was the case with Domi, that didn’t happen with Athanasiou.  Instead, he stayed with them and did well down the stretch while sometimes playing alongside one of their top prospects in Lukas Reichel.

Accordingly, would it be worth it for the Blackhawks to look into extending the 28-year-old on a short-term deal?  They’re not going to be able to ice a lineup of strictly youngsters as there is a cap floor to be met (more on that later) and if Athanasiou is comfortable with the situation in Chicago, perhaps he’s someone worth keeping around.

However, with 20 goals and 20 assists, Athanasiou has likely built up enough value to command at least a two-year deal somewhere this time around.  With that in mind, giving Athanasiou another contract might take him off the table for being traded, at least in the short term, especially if they have to give him a bit above market value to convince him to avoid going to a team that is more interested in short-term success.

Assess Murphy’s Market

The list of proven veterans that the Blackhawks have moved out over the last year is quite impressive to the point where it’s fair to wonder if they have anyone left that could realistically be traded.  Seth Jones and his $9.5MM contract likely won’t be in play due to his contract.  However, another veteran blueliner could realistically find himself in trade talks, Connor Murphy.

The 30-year-old signed his current contract just over a year and a half ago with the hopes that Chicago would be looking to push for short-term success.  Clearly, that’s not the plan now.  Murphy has three years left on that deal with a $4.4MM cap hit, a reasonable price for someone that typically logs around 20 minutes a game, kills penalties, and plays a steady, defensive role.  Frankly, there’s a role for him on the Blackhawks to work with some of their younger blueliners but in a defensive market that isn’t the deepest in terms of free agent or trade options, Chicago should be looking into what they can get for him, especially with right-shot players being in high demand.

Back at the trade deadline, Chicago picked up a first-round pick for Jake McCabe, a blueliner who carries a similar cap hit as Murphy with term left on his deal.  It took them eating half the contract but considering they don’t have many tradable assets with high price tags at the moment, it could be defensible for them to consider doing so here as well, especially if it helps them land another quality draft pick.  One option available to Chicago now that might not be during the season is the ability to take back a pricey contract which could also help defray the cost of Murphy’s deal if the Blackhawks don’t want to retain any money.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that they have to move Murphy this summer, assuming they can overcome his 10-team no-trade protection.  Perhaps the smarter play is to wait until the trade deadline and try to do a McCabe-like deal again.  At a minimum, Davidson needs to see what trade options are out there for the veteran defender over the next couple of months.

Goaltending Decisions

On the surface, it seems like Chicago’s goaltending situation is sorted out.  Petr Mrazek, by virtue of his contract, will be one of the netminders with one of Arvid Soderblom or Jaxson Stauber serving as the backup.  But with how much Mrazek struggled this season, not to mention how things went for him in Toronto, should he really be guaranteed a roster spot for 2023-24?

Alex Stalock was one of the feel-good stories around the NHL this season, recovering from myocarditis that limited him severely the last two seasons to post a .908 SV%, an above-average rate on a team that wasn’t exactly a model of defensive play.  He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer and with the need to get at least one of their youngsters some NHL action, it’s understandable to think he won’t be back.  But if Mrazek isn’t in the picture anymore, would that change things?

Chicago knows they can easily bury Mrazek’s deal in the minors as his struggles will deter any team from picking him up off waivers.  But with the other of Soderblom and Stauber in the picture plus prospect Drew Commesso, would they want Mrazek with Rockford taking away playing time?  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them consider buying him out, a move that would free up about $3MM in cap space next season while adding just under $1.5MM in 2024-25, a price tag that should be of no concern to them given their cap situation.

Are they better off parting ways with Mrazek this summer to try to keep Stalock around or to sign a different veteran netminder that can handle some starts altogether?  It’s a choice they’ll want to make by the late-June buyout deadline.

Spend, Spend, Spend

At the moment, the Blackhawks have over $40MM in cap space for next season, per CapFriendly, assuming that the cap goes up by $1MM as planned.  And that space would only go up with a Mrazek buyout.  Now, you might be thinking to yourself that Chicago won’t be a cap team and you’re probably right.  But there is a Lower Limit to the cap that everyone has to get to.  They are presently around $20MM below what that mark is likely to be next season.

Yes, they have a few roster spots to fill with that money and if they re-sign Athanasiou, that will take up a chunk of it.  But even with that, they have a long way to go and filling those spots with low-cost prospects isn’t going to get them close to the minimum spending.  While they’re clearly a team that isn’t gearing up for a playoff run anytime soon, they’re effectively going to be buyers to an extent.

Davidson has two possible avenues to work with here.  He can do like he did with Domi and Athanasiou last summer, signing them to ‘sign and flip’ deals that will see them moved at or around the trade deadline for futures.  Alternatively, with so many teams expected to be tight to the Upper Limit, Chicago is well-positioned to take on an unwanted contract or two (or more) while adding draft picks and prospects for doing so.  While we know they’ll be sellers next February, expect the Blackhawks to be adding some veterans to their roster in the coming months to help get them cap-compliant while setting themselves up to add future assets as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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