Panthers Rumors

6:04 PM: The team released an update on Barkov, noting that he sustained injuries to his ACL and MCL.  The surgery has now been performed and carries a typical recovery time between seven and nine months.  The short end of that timeline would potentially give him a chance of returning in the second round of the playoffs while the long end would mean that he would miss the entire postseason as well.

10:39 AM: Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov needs surgery to repair the right knee injury he sustained in his first practice session of training camp yesterday, George Richards of Florida Hockey Now reports. There’s no timeline for his return, and there’s fear he could miss the entire season, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

There is a clear video of yesterday’s incident. Barkov had a low-speed collision with teammate Niko Mikkola, bending as if he were attempting a hip check, which caused Mikkola’s weight to come down on top of him. He landed awkwardly on his right leg under pressure and was unable to get up without assistance (via WPLG Local 10 News).

A gargantuan hole now exists on the Cats’ first line, a position Barkov has held ever since entering the league as an 18-year-old in 2013. The back-to-back Selke Trophy winner is smack-dab in the middle of his prime at age 30 and is widely regarded as the best two-way center in the game, and for good reason. He’s now rattled off five straight seasons above a point per game, averaging a 33-62–95 scoring line per 82 games since the 2020-21 campaign. He’s also logged a cumulative +92 rating during that time and has won 56.1% of his draws. He reached new heights on the possession front last year, logging a career-high 60.8% Corsi share at even strength.

While the Panthers’ forward depth has been the hallmark of their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins, it’s already getting stretched thin. They’re now down two stars for at least the first few months of the season as Matthew Tkachuk recovers from offseason adductor surgery. Not having Barkov available down the middle also amplifies the impact of relatively minor injuries like Tomas Nosek’s. The natural pivot would have been in line to swallow up expanded bottom-six minutes normally, but he also underwent knee surgery recently and will miss multiple months.

This season’s new rules surrounding long-term injured reserve will now have a significant impact on the Panthers’ approach. If a player is not expected to miss the entire season, a team only unlocks the equivalent of last year’s league average salary – roughly $3.8MM in this case – in relief. That does not change based on the number of players on LTIR. If the Panthers were to make Barkov ineligible to play in the regular season or playoffs, though, they could unlock Barkov’s full $10MM cap hit worth of relief, assuming they optimize their capture correctly.

Florida already entered the season in a precarious position, projecting to exceed the cap by $4.5MM, per PuckPedia. While Barkov’s injury is a significant blow to their lineup, there’s now an easy out for them to achieve cap compliance by the time opening night rosters are due by ruling him ineligible to return this season, even giving them room to add a significant salary via trade to help shoulder his absence.

Until then, all eyes are on Sam Bennett and Anton Lundell to anchor Florida’s top two lines. Bennett has been a stellar second-line pivot for the Cats since his arrival in 2021, and although he’s fresh off signing an eight-year, $64MM extension, he’s never been tested in a top-line role. There’s an argument to be made that Lundell, the 12th overall pick of the 2020 draft, should see the greater increase in minutes. He’s filled in on the top line during short-term absences for Barkov in the past and has been a more effective per-minute producer than Bennett. The soon-to-be 24-year-old is also locked up long-term and had a career-high 45 points in 79 appearances last year, averaging 16:43 per game and winning 53% of his draws.

The Panthers have a few options to fill the domino effect and replace Lundell as the No. 3 center. Evan Rodrigues, frequently a top-six complementary winger, is a natural pivot and has taken over 2,500 draws in his 10-year career. He might be a better fit in the role compared to other potential flex-overs like Eetu Luostarinen, who the Cats would presumably like to keep with Lundell and sustain the chemistry they’ve built in consistent deployment together over the past few years.

There’s also now a clear opening for PTO invites, Noah Gregor and Tyler Motte to land NHL deals. Both now clearly slot in among the Panthers’ top 14 forwards with Barkov, Nosek, and Tkachuk all sidelined.

Image courtesy of Perry Nelson-Imagn Images.