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Poll: Which Teams Will Buck The Thanksgiving Playoff Trend In 2019-20?

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Just how important is playoff position in just the second month of the regular season? Very, if you look at recent results. Over the past six years, more than 70% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving have held on to their spot. While last year was slightly below the mark – 11 of 16 teams (69%) in a playoff position on November 22 qualified – the standings at the time were even more predictive than usual. The Lightning, Predators, Flames, Maple Leafs, Jets, and Sharks all finished in the same divisional seed that they occupied at Thanksgiving.

So who were the outliers in 2018-19? Obviously, the St. Louis Blues’ return from the basement of the league standings to win the Stanley Cup is a story that will stand the test of time. However, four other clubs also turned their seasons around: the Islanders, Penguins, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights. And the teams whose seasons took a turn for the worse: the Sabres, Wild, Rangers, Canadiens, and Ducks. Ironically, the Canadiens were narrowly inside the playoff window on Thanksgiving and ended up just barely outside in the spring. Meanwhile, the Ducks, Oilers, and Coyotes were all tied for the lowest playoff-qualifying record on Thanksgiving, with the Ducks getting the tiebreaker at the time, and all three failed to qualify for the postseason.

This season has gotten off to an unpredictable start, which could potentially threaten to derail the Thanksgiving trend. Several teams considered Cup contenders are currently outside the playoff picture, while multiple surprises currently occupy a spot. With Thanksgiving arriving tomorrow, this is the current status of the NHL standings (reminder – points percentage is the ideal way of viewing NHL standings):

Eastern Conference

M1 New York Islanders (.773)
A1 Boston Bruins (.771)

M2 Washington Capitals (.740)
M3 Carolina Hurricanes (.646)

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning (.619)
A3 Florida Panthers (.604)

W1 Pittsburgh Penguins (.625)
W2 Philadelphia Flyers (.604)

Outside the Playoff Picture: Montreal Canadiens (.563), New York Rangers (.545), Columbus Blue Jackets (.522), Buffalo Sabres (.521), Toronto Maple Leafs (.520), Ottawa Senators (.479), New Jersey Devils (.435), Detroit Red Wings (.327)

Western Conference

C1 St. Louis Blues (.680)
P1 Edmonton Oilers (.673)

C2 Dallas Stars (.615)
C3 Colorado Avalanche (.609)

P2 Arizona Coyotes (.620)
P3 Vancouver Canucks (.560)

W1 Winnipeg Jets (.604)
W2 Nashville Predators (.543)

Outside the Playoff Picture: San Jose Sharks (.540), Chicago Blackhawks (.521), Anaheim Ducks (.500), Vegas Golden Knights (.500), Calgary Flames (.481), Minnesota Wild (.480), Los Angeles Kings (.417)

2018-19 playoff teams jump off the page as potential candidates to disrupt the status quo. Particularly in the Pacific Division, it is hard to image none of the Golden Knights – who beat the Thanksgiving odds last year – the Sharks or the Flames will make the playoffs, especially as they look up at the Oilers, Coyotes, and Canucks.  There could also be hope in West for the Ducks and Blackhawks, who sit at .500 currently. Over in the East, the Maple Leafs stick out like a sore thumb among non-playoff teams and could be line for improvement following their coaching change. But will it be enough given their difficult start? The Canadiens will also hope for a reverse of fortunes from last year, going from first team out in the conference at Thanksgiving to in the postseason come April. The Sabres have started hot and collapsed two years in a row, but there is still time for them to turn things back around. All three Atlantic clubs see a Panthers team with plenty of problems ahead of them in the standings right now. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Blue Jackets will look to make an unlikely run to the postseason as they chase down the Flyers.

What do you think? Which of these teams will find their way into the playoff picture and which will fall victim to the Thanksgiving postseason trend? Select as many teams below as you like, but remember that for every addition, there has to be a subtraction of a current playoff team.

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Western Notes: Lehner, Crouse, Bear

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After another shootout loss suffered by the Chicago Blackhawks, it’s blatantly obvious that goaltender Robin Lehner is bad at shootouts. Including Chicago’s 2-1 shootout loss to the Dallas Stars Saturday, Lehner has accumulated 22 shootout losses, allowing 45 goals on 94 shots for a .521 save percentage. Considering the average goalie’s numbers are closer to .700 or .800 on the shootout, Lehner is way below average.

However, The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus (subscription required) writes that swapping out Lehner for Corey Crawford at shootouts isn’t likely to happen either, despite the fact that Crawford boasts a career save percentage of .713 on shootouts. The problem is that on days that Lehner plays, Crawford would be ice cold when the shootout comes around. Not necessarily a much better option.

“That’d be tough,” head coach Jeremey Colliton said. “Listen, Robin played really well. I don’t think it’s fair to talk about the shootout, as well as he played for the rest of the 65 minutes. He was really good.”

  • After colliding into the boards headfirst Saturday, Arizona Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet said that forward Lawson Crouse is sore today and will not be playing Sunday against Edmonton, according to AZSports’ Richard Morin. Crouse got tangled up with Los Angeles Kings defenseman Alec Martinez and slid into the boards at high speed during the third period of Saturdays’ game. Tocchet said that the injury isn’t necessarily a head injury, but he did enter concussion protocol and will continue to be monitored. Michael Grabner will take his place in the lineup.
  • Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal writes that one of the top reasons for the Edmonton Oilers success has come with the emergence of Ethan Bear, who has quickly established himself as a first-pairing defenseman who can consistently transition the puck from the defensive zone to a forward on their way out of the defensive zone. The scribe writes that Bear has already replaced Adam Larsson on that top line and four goals and 21:04 ATOI as a rookie has made quite the difference to the team as the 22-year-old came into camp in the best shape of his career and has taken advantage of every opportunity so far.

Pacific Notes: Vancouver Penalty Kill, Brodie, Nygard, Vilardi

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The Vancouver Canucks may not be leading any categories in their penalty kill, but with a 13th-ranked special teams unit that kills off penalties at 82.9 percent, the team found itself challenged against Washington Saturday as the team was without four of its top penalty killers. The team played without Jay Beagle (hip), Brandon Sutter (groin), Tyler Motte (foot) and Alexander Edler (upper body), yet still fared quite well shutting down Washington’s power play on three separate occasions to win the game in a 2-1 shootout.

The Province’s Ben Kuzma writes that the team may be without that group for several more days and the success of the team’s battered penalty kill will likely have a big impact on the remainder of their three-game road trip throughout next week.

  • The Calgary Flames could be getting back defenseman T.J. Brodie sooner than later. The blueliner, who collapsed during practice on Nov. 14, skated on his own Saturday and, according to a Sportsnet report, is expected to join practice with the Flames on Sunday. The team has done a barrage of tests, but have found no evidence that Brodie’s collapse was nothing more than him fainting. Brodie has joined the team on their road trip and may return to action as soon as Monday against Pittsburgh. The 29-year-old has eight assists in 21 games.
  • Edmonton Oilers forward Joakim Nygard was brought in from the SHL to add a speedy winger who can immediately become a top-nine presence, who could help their quick-moving centers with some secondary scoring. However, despite his impressive speed in 10 games, Nygard just has one goal to show for it as he has struggled to finish around the net. Edmonton Sun’s Jim Matheson suggests that Nygard may be more of a third-line winger as opposed to a second-liner. “There’s still another level there,” said head coach Dave Tippett. “The good thing about him? He’s really determined, he’s not here to mess around. He wants to be a good player and that’s positive to see.”
  • The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman (subscription required) writes that Los Angeles Kings prospect Gabe Vilardi fared well in Friday’s AHL debut. The 11th-overall pick in 2017 has barely played in the past year and a half with a back injury, having seen four games with the AHL Ontario Reign last season. While Vilardi didn’t register a point, he did have a breakaway opportunity and looked happy throughout the contest. “Now, to see him last night, he had a smile on his face,” Kings director of player personnel Glen Murray said. “We lost the game (4-1). But for him, it was successful. It was a passing grade, for sure. He’s come a long way. It’s been a long year. He did well. To be off a year – his game legs aren’t going to be there – but he made some nice plays, won a lot of faceoffs and he had this breakaway in the third period last night.”

Edmonton Oilers Activate Adam Larsson

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The Edmonton Oilers are playing like one of the best teams in the entire NHL, and today are getting back a huge part of their defense. Adam Larsson has been activated from injured reserve and will be back in the lineup tonight against the Los Angeles Kings. Matt Benning is in the concussion protocol and will come out.

This will be just the second game of the season for Larsson after he suffered a broken fibula in the season opener.

Though he’ll always be seen in a different light because of the trade that brought him to Edmonton, Larsson is undoubtedly one of the most important players on the roster. The 27-year old defenseman has logged more than 21 minutes a night since joining the Oilers and looked like he may get even more responsibility under new head coach Dave Tippett.

The Oilers sit in first place in the Pacific Division after 23 games with a 14-6-3 record. Though it has been the offense driving the ship so far, an improved defense could make them even more dangerous in the Western Conference playoff race.

Oilers Notes: Larsson, Puljujarvi, Bear, Bouchard

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The Edmonton Oilers look to be getting back a key player as defenseman Adam Larsson is expected to be close to a return, likely in the middle of the week. The Edmonton Sun’s Kurt Leavins reports that the team will likely make some roster moves either Wednesday or Thursday for a potential return against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday.

The scribe writes the team will have to make a corresponding move when they activate Larsson, who has been out since the first game of the season with a broken leg. The likely candidates to be sent to Bakersfield of the AHL would be either Caleb Jones or Joel Persson, with Persson being the more likely candidate. The 25-year-old, who signed out of the SHL, could use some time in the AHL to allow the game to slow down for him. He has only appeared in 10 games for the Oilers so far.

  • Edmonton Sun’s Jim Matheson relays that while the Oilers have been rumored to be considering a potential swap of Jesse Puljujarvi for the New York Rangers’ Lias Andersson, he wonders if that potential trade makes much sense. The scribe writes that the scouting book on the Swedish center is that he is a bottom-line forward who lacks pace to his game. While Puljujarvi hasn’t fared well so far in the NHL, there is still belief that he has the potential to be a top-six option still.
  • In a separate tweet, Matheson writes that there aren’t many comparables for Ethan Bear, who will be hitting restricted free agency this summer. Bear, has looked good this year in his first full season with the Oilers, posting three goals and seven points in 22 games. He writes the best comparables are Neal Pionk’s $3MM deal with Winnipeg or Ryan Pulock’s $2MM deal with the New York Islanders.
  • The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) names his top Edmonton Oilers’ prospect in his winter evaluation, naming defenseman Evan Bouchard for a second straight year. Bouchard is the first player to repeat as the team’s top prospect in more than a dozen years. The 20-year-old blueliner scored 16 goals and 43 points with the OHL’s London Knights last season and has continued to play well as a professional this year with the Bakersfield Condors in the AHL where he has three goals and nine points in 10 games.

Edmonton Oilers Recall Caleb Jones

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The Edmonton Oilers have made a pair of transactions this evening, recalling Caleb Jones and placing Brandon Manning on injured reserve. Manning lands on the disabled list with a hand injury, but it will give another opportunity to one of the exciting prospects in the Oilers organization.

Jones, 22, was selected in the fourth round of the 2015 draft but quickly became a prospect to remember. His production exploded after deciding to make the jump to the CHL, recording 55 points as a rookie for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. His continued success there landed him a spot on the Canadian World Junior team during the 2016-17 season, where he won a gold medal.

Since joining the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors, things haven’t really slowed down for Jones as he has brought his excellent puck-moving skills to the professional level. Last season saw him get 17 games with the Oilers, in which he recorded six points. With ten through his first 13 AHL games this season it was only a matter of time before he got another sniff at the NHL level.

Latest On Jesse Puljujarvi

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It appears as though the Jesse Puljujarvi saga is over, at least for the next few months. The Edmonton Oilers prospect told Sami Hoffren of Ilta-Sanomat that he would be staying in Finland for the rest of the season.

While the Oilers could still decide to trade Puljujarvi at any point, it’s hard to expect a team to offer full value if they can’t sign him for this season. That deadline is rapidly approaching regardless, as the young restricted free agent would have to sign an NHL contract before December 1st to be eligible to play at all in the 2019-20 season.

Puljujarvi, 21, is dominating Liiga this season, scoring 11 goals and 20 points in 18 games with Karpat. It’s hard to know what that really means for his future though, as he was putting up strong numbers for the same team in 2015-16 even before he was drafted.

The key in this situation is that Puljujarvi is no longer waiver-exempt, meaning any team signing him would have to keep him in the NHL. That appears to only matter for next season however, meaning Edmonton GM Ken Holland may have greater opportunities to move him in the summer.

Adam Larsson Hopes To Return In The Next Week And A Half

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The Oilers have been without blueliner Adam Larsson after he sustained a broken leg in the first game of the season (one that he played through for two periods) but it appears that he’s getting closer to returning.  He told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson that he feels he’s a bit ahead of schedule and is hoping to return in about a week and a half.  Larsson is presently on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) but as Edmonton is currently in salary cap compliance even if he was back on their books, they won’t have to make any moves to activate him when he gets the green light to return.

Snapshots: Sobotka, Archibald, Hall

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Buffalo Sabres forward Vladimir Sobotka was removed from today’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning after being hit low by Nikita Kucherov, and did not return. John Vogl of The Athletic saw Sobotka after the game in an air cast, but Sabres’ head coach Ralph Krueger wouldn’t speculate on how long he will be out.

Though he has been the whipping boy for many Sabres fans frustrated with the team’s lack of secondary scoring, Sobotka still seems to be a favorite of the coaching staff that continues to give him regular ice time. In his first season with Buffalo last year he failed to make much of an impact scoring just 13 points in 69 games, and has just three so far this season. The Sabres will likely insert Evan Rodrigues into the lineup for the other Global Series game tomorrow afternoon.

  • The Edmonton Oilers have activated Josh Archibald from injured reserve, and will also have Riley Sheahan back in the lineup when they take on the New Jersey Devils tonight. The team is looking to get back in the win column after two straight losses to Western Conference opponents, but still sit atop the Pacific Division with a 10-5-2 record.
  • Taylor Hall will be front and center in that matchup as he returns to Edmonton in the midst of plenty of contract speculation, including some suggesting that the Oilers would have some interest in bringing him back. Mark Spector of Sportsnet examines the Hall situation, explaining how the player has expressed clearly his desire to return to the playoffs before his time as a star in the league runs out. The Devils sit at 4-6-4 on the season, in last place in the Metropolitan Division.

Several Players Placed On Waivers

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Friday: All four players have cleared waivers. Lintuniemi will now see his contract terminated, while the other three can be sent to the minor leagues.

Thursday: The Toronto Maple Leafs have placed a pair of players on waivers in order to start clearing room for the nearing return of Zach Hyman. Martin Marincin and Nic Petan find themselves on waivers alongside Edmonton Oilers forward Tomas Jurco today, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Alex Lintuniemi of the Carolina Hurricanes has also been placed on unconditional waivers.

Petan actually made it through waivers already this season but needs them again after spending at least 30 days on the NHL roster. The Maple Leafs had been trying to find a landing spot for him and Marincin, but neither appear to have generated much trade interest at this time. Teams can now claim them for free, though they would then have to stay on the NHL roster. Clearing waivers could potentially increase their value, though they also may just end up with the Toronto Marlies.

Toronto needs to clear a third roster player before activating Hyman off long-term injured reserve, and though the consensus seems to be that Jason Spezza is that player, Dmytro Timashov and Nick Shore remain candidates.

In Edmonton, the Oilers have apparently made the same determination other organizations had previously come to that Jurco isn’t consistent enough to keep on the NHL roster. Given a glorious opportunity to play in the top six with some of the game’s best players, Jurco never did grab hold of the spot and has just two points in 12 games. The 26-year old would be on his sixth organization if he were claimed.

For Lintuniemi, unconditional waivers likely precedes a mutual contract termination. After being left unqualified by the Los Angeles Kings, the 24-year old defenseman signed a one-year deal with Carolina this summer but has played just four games with the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL. He would become an unrestricted free agent once again should the termination go through.

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