Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Buffalo Sabres
Current Cap Hit: $69,244,521 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Dylan Cozens (two years, $894K)
F Peyton Krebs (three years, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Krebs: $412.5K
Total: $1.2625MM
While Cozens hasn’t been lighting it up in his sophomore season, he has taken some positive strides and has played his way into a bigger role. That said, it’s not the type of performance that is going to set him up for a long-term second contract and he’ll have some work to do in the second half if he wants a shot at hitting any of his ‘A’ bonuses. A bridge deal in the $3MM range looks like a possibility if his slow but steady development continues. Krebs was a key part of the Jack Eichel trade and his first handful of NHL games haven’t been great. That said, he still figures to be a key part of their long-term plans and with such a limited sample size to judge off of, it’s way too early to be able to reasonably forecast his next contract.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Craig Anderson ($750K, UFA)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Jacob Bryson ($889K, RFA)
D Will Butcher ($2.823MM, UFA)*
F Drake Caggiula ($750K, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.6MM, UFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($3.05MM, RFA)
D/F Mark Pysyk ($900K, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($850K, UFA)
G Dustin Tokarski ($725K, UFA)
*-New Jersey is retaining another $910K of Butcher’s contract.
Following Olofsson’s somewhat surprising rookie season two years ago, they opted for a bridge contract to see if it was a sign of things to come or just him getting hit at the right time. Today, there’s still some question about what he’ll be worth. He’s doing well enough to be qualified at $3.25MM which would be a small jump on his $3.05MM AAV but at the same time, GM Kevyn Adams may not be ready to commit to a long-term deal yet. As a result, a second bridge contract makes sense but with him being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’ll have to just be a one-year deal. He’s eligible for arbitration and if they were to look at a long-term pact that bought out some UFA years, something in the $5MM range may be required.
Eakin’s contract from a year ago came as a bit of a surprise after a quiet 2019-20 season and his value certainly hasn’t improved since then. He can still kill penalties and win faceoffs but the role he has is usually valued at closer to $1MM than $2MM. Hinostroza is getting a bigger opportunity with Buffalo than he had over the last few years and it was a wise decision as he’s hovering near the half-a-point-per-game mark, his best average since 2018-19. Has he done enough to show he’s worthy of a middle-six role on a better team, however? If yes, he could come close to doubling his price tag. If not, his raise for next season may be minimal. Hayden and Caggiula are low-cost role players and are likely to stay at or close to the league minimum on their next deals.
Boychuk was traded to Buffalo just before the Eichel trade to allow the Sabres to stay above the cap floor but his playing days are done. The addition of Butcher was an interesting one as it gave him a chance to rebuild his value. That hasn’t happened as he has largely been limited to a role on the third pairing when he has played. Still, his rookie season should give him a reasonable market as some will view him as a bounce-back candidate so he could come in around half of his $3.733MM AAV on his next contract.
Hagg is one of Buffalo’s more intriguing rental trade candidates over the next couple of months as a physical, stay-at-home defender that can upgrade a third pairing. There’s still a good market for those players so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass the $2MM mark in the summer. Bryson isn’t putting up many points but the fact he’s averaging nearly 20 minutes a game will help since he’s arbitration-eligible this summer. A one-year deal should earn him somewhere around $1.5MM but a multi-year deal could be an option here around the $2MM AAV range. Pysyk has had to settle for one-year contracts the last two seasons and that will likely happen again although he, too, isn’t far off from 20 minutes a night which could push his value past the $1MM mark which would be an improvement on his last two deals.
None of Buffalo’s goaltenders are in a position to command much of a raise. Subban cleared waivers in training camp and has struggled in limited action this season which will have teams viewing him as a third-stringer over an NHL backup and will price him accordingly. Anderson settled for the minimum for this season and while he played well early, his injury situation offsets that. As for Tokarski, his AAV will go up by default since it’s below the minimum salary but he’s another goalie that’s more viewed as organizational depth than a full-fledged NHL regular. That will keep him around the minimum as well.
Two Years Remaining
F Rasmus Asplund ($825K, RFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)
Okposo is part of that ill-fated 2016 UFA class and he hasn’t lived up to that contract. That said, he’s very quietly having a pretty good season and has produced at a pace that would be close to his best year with Buffalo. It doesn’t mean he’s going to get a lot of interest two summers from now though. He’ll be looking at something closer to a quarter of his current rate unless this production sustains itself for the next season and a half. Girgensons just hasn’t been able to produce with enough consistency to justify an above-average contract for someone whose best suited to play on the fourth line. There was some hope of late-blooming upside before but he’ll be 29 at the end of this deal. If the improvement hasn’t come by then, it’s probably not coming at all.
As for the restricted free agents, Bjork wasn’t able to sustain his late-season uptick in points after being acquired from Boston. At this point, with a $1.8MM qualifying offer needed, he looks like a non-tender candidate with his UFA market value being around half of that number. Thompson, on the other hand, is on an upward trajectory. His offensive production has finally come around and his combination of size and skill make him a candidate for a long-term deal with how much teams are willing to spend in the hopes of keeping a power forward in the fold. As long as his scoring burst isn’t just a short-term thing, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he triples his $1.6MM qualifying offer. As for Asplund, he has provided a decent return on close to a league minimum salary this season. A similar showing in the second half of this season and next could put him in the $2MM range on his next deal. All three of these players are arbitration-eligible in 2023.
Three Years Remaining
D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)
Mittelstadt hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season which makes it hard to make any early forecast on this contract. If he can secure a regular top-six role by then, that should at least have him in line to push beyond his $2.6MM qualifying offer in his final year of RFA eligibility. A long-term contract that buys out some UFA time could push him past the $4MM mark, more if his production is strong over the next two seasons.
The decision to bridge Dahlin made sense as the 2018 top pick hasn’t been able to become that elite number one defender just yet but was still showing some positive development signs. If he can get to that level by the end of this deal, he’d earn well beyond his $7.2MM qualifying offer and he’ll only have one RFA season remaining in 2024. The bridge buys them some time but at some point, a long-term pact will need to be worked out. Jokiharju has turned into a capable second-pairing player in Buffalo and should be a useful secondary piece of their long-term future core. That should have him pushing for more than $4MM on his next contract if he can pick up his production as this deal goes on. Again, he’ll only have the one RFA year left at this time.
Sabres Notes: Quinn, Anderson, Third Jersey
Buffalo Sabres rookie Jack Quinn just broke into the NHL lineup but now won’t see the ice for quite some time. The team has announced that Quinn will miss the next four-to-six weeks with an undisclosed lower-body injury. Quinn just made his NHL debut last week and has two points in his first two games. The 2020 No. 8 overall pick has been one of the best players in the AHL this season with 35 points in 24 games and appears to be on his way to stardom in the NHL. However, that will be on hold for this season as Quinn will be out until March, at which time he will probably return to action in the minors before seeing another chance in the NHL. While this injury won’t chance much about Quinn’s impressive trajectory, it is disappointing for a Buffalo team with nothing to play for again this season and with numerous injuries already who were hoping to see their exciting prospect play a top role the rest of the way.
- Veteran goaltender Craig Anderson finally looks ready to return to the Buffalo crease. Sabres GM Kevyn Adams revealed on a radio spot with WGR 550 that Anderson will accompany the team on their upcoming three-game western road trip and could see game action if he continues to progress. Anderson, 40, has been out since early November with an upper-body injury. After being convinced to come out of a brief retirement by the Sabres, this isn’t what Anderson was hoping for this season. However, in his six games prior to the injury Anderson was stellar, posting a .921 save percentage and 2.50 GAA. If he can get back to playing at that level, it could all be worth it for the respected veteran to go out on a high note.
- The Sabres are bringing back a familiar face from the 90’s. No, not Dominik Hasek or Alexander Mogilny, but the literal face of the Buffalo. Chris Creamer of Sportslogos.net reports that the Sabres will bring back their 90’s primary logo, often referred to as the “Goathead” logo, to grace their third jersey in 2022-23 and beyond. Creamer even suggests that the alternate jersey could bring back the red and black scheme that the Sabres dawned for more than a decade in the mid-90’s into the 2000’s before returning to the blue and gold. It remains to be seen if that will actually be the case – the difference in appearance between the primaries and the alternate would be quite jarring – but it seems the Buffalo head logo will return regardless. A polarizing logo in its time, though far from the worst in Sabres’ history, it will be interesting to see if enough time has passed for the Buffalo fan base to embrace the return in the name of nostalgia.
Hall Of Famer Clark Gillies Passes Away At 67
The hockey community, especially those in New York, has lost one of the greats. New York Islanders legend Clark Gillies has passed away at the age of 67, the team announced late Friday night. Gillies spent a dozen seasons in New York to begin his career and wrapped up his playing days with a pair of seasons with the Buffalo Sabres. Since retiring in 1988, he has worked closely with charities on Long Island, including his own Clark Gillies Foundation, and has stayed involved with the Islanders club.
Gillies is best remembered as a key piece of the Islanders early-1980’s dynasty that won four consecutive Stanley Cups. Gillies played an integral role in each title, recording 250 points in 302 games in those regular seasons and 47 points in 66 postseason games as well. Gillies was the fourth overall pick by the Isles in 1974 out of Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan and the WHL’s Regina Pats and jumped immediately into the NHL. It didn’t take long for him to find his groove, recording career-best seasons of 85 and 91 points in 1977-78 and 1978-79. For his career, Gillies notched 697 points in 958 games, only topped by his 1,025 career penalty minutes. The epitome of a power forward, the 6’3″ Gillies was notoriously tough to play against in all three zones. A physical net front presence, especially on the power play, and menacing checker, it was easy for Gillies’ teams to score when he was on the ice and far more difficult for the opposition, as evidenced by a whopping +245 rating for his career. The two-time First Team All-Star had his No. 9 retired by the Islanders in 1996 and was a 2002 Hockey Hall of Fame inductee.
The Islanders, in announcing the sad news of Gillies’ passing, including a statement from GM and fellow Hall of Famer Lou Lamoriello:
The entire Islanders community is devastated by the loss of Clark Gillies. He epitomized what it means to be a New York Islander. The pride he felt wearing the Islanders sweater on the ice was evident by his willingness to do anything to win. Off the ice, he was just as big of a presence, always taking the time to give back to the local community. The New York Islanders have four Stanley Cups because of the sacrifices he and the members of those dynasty teams made for the franchise. On behalf of the entire organization, we send our deepest condolences to the entire Gillies family.
Many more have released statements sharing their condolences and expressing their appreciation for the role that Gillies played in a number of hockey communities, including NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, WHL Commissioner Ron Robison, Pittsburgh Penguins great and close friend Mario Lemieux, and many former and current Islanders. It is clear that the charismatic and caring Gillies made a major impact on many lives.
We here at PHR extend our condolences to the family, friends, and many fans of Clark Gillies.
Buffalo Sabres Update Several Injuries
Every week it seems like the Buffalo Sabres announce several new long-term injuries, and this week was no different. The team gave an updated injury report which now lists Kyle Okposo as week-to-week following a hit from Erik Brannstrom on Tuesday night. Head coach Don Granato told reporters including John Vogl of The Athletic that Okposo did not suffer a concussion on the play, but is out with “bumps and bruises.”
Unfortunately, the bad news didn’t end there. Colin Miller, who was still listed as week-to-week on the update, underwent surgery and will miss six weeks. The 29-year-old defenseman played just a few days ago and had been discussed as a strong trade deadline chip for the Sabres. Miller is a pending unrestricted free agent, right-handed, and has nearly 400 games of NHL experience. That made him an attractive option, but he’ll now have to work through rehab and get back to full strength if Buffalo really wants to cash in.
Meanwhile one of their own trade acquisitions, Malcolm Subban, also had surgery and is likely out for the rest of the season. The 28-year-old netminder was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks last month for nothing more than future considerations but will end with just four appearances for the team. Given Subban is also a pending unrestricted free agent, it’s a tough blow that could see him struggling to find an NHL contract in the summer. In those four games, he posted a .871 save percentage and now holds a .898 for his 86-game NHL career.
Vinnie Hinostroza, who has been a nice story for the Sabres this season with eight goals and 17 points in 36 games, will miss about three weeks with his lower-body injury. The Sabres have recalled Jack Quinn today, who appears to be ready for an extended look at the NHL level because of how many injuries the team is currently dealing with.
Jacob Bryson To Miss Two More Games
- Sabres defenseman Jacob Bryson will miss at least the next two games due to his upper-body injury, relays Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News (Twitter link). The 24-year-old sophomore has logged close to 20 minutes a game on Buffalo’s back end this season while collecting seven assists and 34 blocks in 32 games.
Poll: Is The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture Already Complete?
It doesn’t make for much of an exciting stretch run, but it just might be the truth and The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington isn’t afraid to make the claim: less than halfway through the 2021-22 NHL season, the eight Eastern Conference playoff spots appear to be locked up. While the eight in place can certainly jockey for position, Harrington believes that those teams currently in the postseason in the East will stay in postseason position and those not, including his Buffalo Sabres, have nothing left to play for this season. Do you agree?
The conference standings do paint a pretty bleak picture for the playoff race, as the gap between the eighth and final playoff spot and the next closest competitor is sizeable. In terms of both absolute points and points percentage, the Boston Bruins sit in eighth in the East with 46 points and a .657 points percentage, holding the second wild card spot if the postseason started today. In ninth place in both categories are the Detroit Red Wings, but calling it a distant ninth is generous. Detroit has 39 points on the year, just seven back of Boston, but having played four more games than the Bruins the Red Wings are actually just a .500 team, 157 percentage points back. Every other team outside the playoff picture is under .500 and they are all chasing a Bruins team that is 8-2 in their past ten games, riding a five-game winning streak. Just ahead of Boston are the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are also 8-2 in their last ten. The only other teams in the conference that are not 200+ percentage points ahead of Detroit are the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers.
[See: Eastern Conference Standings]
Statistically, there don’t appear to be any clear underachievers outside of the playoff picture primed for a late push either. All eight teams not in a playoff spot in the East have a negative goal differential, with the top mark being the Columbus Blue Jackets at -15. In contrast, the worst differential among the playoff teams is the Rangers’ +17 and they are the only club below +20. Hardly any of the non-playoff teams hold a spot in the top half of the league in any major statistical category either. The New York Islanders are ninth in goals against per game and eleventh in penalty kill efficiency, the Blue Jackets are tied for twelfth in goals for per game, the New Jersey Devils are thirteenth on the penalty kill, and the Ottawa Senators are tied for fourteenth in power play efficiency – end of list.
Yet, can the playoff picture really be sealed up this early? The law of averages suggests that a current playoff team is likely to slump while a current non-playoff team is likely to hit their stride in the second half. In fact, this may have already begun. While the Bruins and Penguins have been surging, the Capitals are just 4-3-3 in their last ten games and struggling to find consistent goaltending and defensive play. The Capitals’ record is also buoyed by a league-leading nine overtime points and their abysmal 30th-ranked power play is a major stain on their playoff resume. If there is a pretender in the East, it could be Washington. The Rangers may also be due for some regression in the second half. New York has exceeded expectations thus far and have somehow found ways to win despite trouble scoring. Their 2.85 goals per game is tied for 18th in the league, behind the likes of Columbus and New Jersey and just .01 ahead of Ottawa. On the flip side of the playoff picture, the Islanders are one of the biggest disappointments of the season. A conference finalist last year, the Isles looked to be building a true contender. While they are still playing a good defensive game, the team has had no luck offensively this season. Yet, with a league-low 30 games played, the Islanders could have time to find their game and fight their way back into postseason consideration. At least on paper, the Philadelphia Flyers should also be better than their current record, while the rebuilding Red Wings and Blue Jackets should be happy with their performance so far this season but would be even happier to get their young rosters into a postseason battle.
It is hard to remember a conference having no battle for playoff position in recent memory, especially so early in the season. While it looks like that could be the case this year in the East, is that actual a realistic expectation? Is the current gap in the standings just too wide to overcome? Or is there enough potential for one or two teams in the playoff picture to collapse while one or two on the outside find a way back? Vote now and comment on which teams, if any, could drop out of the playoff picture and who might replace them.
Is The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture Already Complete?
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Yes 74% (647)
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No 26% (233)
Total votes: 880
Tage Thompson And Peyton Krebs Clear COVID Protocol
- Sabres winger Tage Thompson and center Peyton Krebs have both cleared COVID protocol, notes Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald. Thompson will suit up tonight in Detroit while they will take it a little slower with Krebs and re-assess his status on Sunday.
AHL Notes: Malone, Trade, Signings
Veteran minor leaguer Sean Malone is set to miss an extended period of time following recent surgery, reports Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald. Malone is a familiar name to Buffalo Sabres fans; the Harvard product has spent four of five pro seasons with the AHL’s Rochester Americans and three of those under contract with the Sabres. After leaving last season to sign with the Nashville Predators, Malone returned to Buffalo this off-season and has been enjoying the best season of his career with nine goals and 22 points in 23 games with Rochester. However, Hoppe writes that an undisclosed lower-body injury that has plagued the 26-year-old throughout much of his career finally caught up with him, forcing him to opt for surgery. The decision will keep Malone out at least six weeks, according to Americans head coach Seth Appert. Though Malone has only two NHL games to his credit, one with Buffalo and one with Nashville, the veteran is a trusted member of the Sabres’ organizational depth chart and one whose absence in the minors will be noticed. Appert states that Malone is a leader and “go-to guy” who has been instrumental in the development of top Sabres prospects like Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka. Though Malone is expected to be out until at least March, hopefully the veteran can return to action at full strength and hit the ground running at his current career scoring pace, perhaps even earning another chance in Buffalo.
- The Arizona Coyotes and Carolina Hurricanes completed an AHL trade on Friday, with forward Stephen Harper moving from the Chicago Wolves to the Tucson Roadrunners in exchange for future considerations. Harper was the hero of the ECHL’s Kelly Cup Playoffs last season, earning postseason MVP honors for leading the Fort Wayne Komets to a title behind 13 points in 12 playoff games – all as a rookie no less. He has continued to excel at the “AA” level this year too, with 18 points in 15 games. However, the power forward hasn’t earned much more opportunity this year as a result of those efforts. Harper has played in just six AHL games this season in a limited role, which is likely what prompted a trade. The 26-year-old USports product is not exactly an NHL prospect, but has earned a chance to show what he can do at the next level and the Roadrunners appear willing to give him that opportunity.
- Is a Daniel Briere pipeline forming between the ECHL’s Maine Mariners and the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms? The Mariners may be affiliated with the Boston Bruins, but they share an owner with the Philadelphia Flyers in Comcast Spectacor and GM and President Briere is a former long-time Flyer himself. For the third time already this season, a Mariner has signed an AHL contract with the Flyers’ affiliate in Lehigh Valley. The Phantoms announced that they have signed forward Alex Kile to a contract for the remainder of the season. Kile was the first ever signing by the Mariners when they joined the ECHL back in 2018 and the University of Michigan product has 162 points in 201 ECHL games ever since, with some AHL loans mixed in as well. With five goals and 12 points in seven games with Maine so far this year, the Phantoms decided that the 27-year-old Kile was worthy of a more permanent AHL stay.
- The Washington Capitals have seen enough from USports forward Derek Gentile this season to put an end to his collegiate season with a pro contract. The Dalhousie University standout signed a contract with the AHL’s Hershey Bears, though he will begin his pro career in the ECHL with the South Carolina Stingrays. Gentile, the captain of the QMJHL’s Cape Breton Screaming Eagles in 2019-20, missed his first collegiate season in 2020-21 but you wouldn’t know it by his play this season. Gentile recorded 15 goals and 27 points in 18 games for Dalhousie prior to his departure. And he stayed hot in his pro debut on Friday, posting two goals and an assist in his pro debut. Gentile could be in Hersey very shortly if that keeps up.
Buffalo Sabres Sign Michael Houser; Update Injury Statuses
The Buffalo Sabres are going to have a goaltending tandem of Aaron Dell and Michael Houser for a while. The team has signed the latter to a new one-year contract worth $750K at the NHL level, after announcing that Malcolm Subban, Dustin Tokarski, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are all out at least on a week-to-week basis. Subban will be even longer than that, as he’s listed month-to-month with an upper-body injury. Craig Anderson remains out month-to-month as well.
Houser, 29, was in a similar situation last season when he signed a one-year, league-minimum deal with the Sabres on March 19 to provide some emergency cover. The organization has refused to add more NHL depth to the position and now will be stuck once again with a netminder who has spent more time in the ECHL than the AHL.
Over a long mostly minor league career, Houser has made 213 appearances in the ECHL, 88 in the AHL, and four in the NHL. His save percentages at all three are above .900, but it’s hard to believe he could really carry the load for the Sabres and have them stay competitive in the tough Atlantic Division.
Dell meanwhile has also been recalled from the AHL, while Jack Quinn and Casey Fitzgerald were sent back to Rochester. The 32-year-old veteran netminder has been brutal this season during his time in Buffalo, posting an .872 save percentage and 4.52 goals-against-average. He’s been better in the AHL, but his time in the NHL appears to be running out.
The Sabres, now 10-19-6 on the season, have lost six straight and now own a -33 goal differential.
Tage Thompson Placed In COVID Protocol; Jack Quinn Recalled
The Buffalo Sabres could have another debut on the horizon, as Jack Quinn has been recalled to the taxi squad and was on the ice at practice today. His appearance could be explained by the absence of Tage Thompson, who was moved to the COVID protocol. Quinn skated on a line with Dylan Cozens and Vinnie Hinostroza according to John Vogl of The Athletic, suggesting he could play tomorrow against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Quinn, 20, was the eighth overall pick in 2020 and has so far spent his professional career entirely in the minor leagues. The AHL has posed no issue, however, as the talented youngster has 26 points in 20 games this season for the Rochester Americans and looks poised to make an impact at the higher level.
If he does replace Thompson in the lineup tomorrow and make his debut, he’ll have some big shoes to fill. The 24-year-old Thompson has found his game this season with 12 goals and 23 points in 34 games, good enough to lead the Sabres in both categories. Despite standing 6’7″, the hulking winger actually plays more of a skill game and is on pace to more than double his previous career totals.
Unfortunately, he’s not the only Sabre in the protocol at the moment. Thompson joins Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch, and Kyle Okposo on the sideline for tomorrow’s game.