Sabres Re-Sign Linus Ullmark To A One-Year Deal
The Sabres have avoided salary arbitration for the second time today. This time, it’s goaltender Linus Ullmark who has avoided a hearing as the team announced that they’ve signed him to a one-year, $2.6MM contract. The deal comes in just above our $2.55MM projection.
The two sides exchanged figures on Saturday with Buffalo offering $1.8MM and Ullmark requesting $4.1MM. As expected, the contract checks in a bit below the midpoint of $2.95MM.
Ullmark had a decent showing last season, putting up a 2.69 GAA with a .915 SV% in 34 starts, numbers that were a lot better than his showing in 2018-19 and his platoon mate in Carter Hutton. Despite that, however, he was basically in a platoon situation all season long, a situation that could once again present itself in 2020-21.
Most notable about this contract is that it takes the 27-year-old right to unrestricted free agency next offseason. While this has been a tough free agent market for quite a few players, that hasn’t been the case for goaltenders as they went off the board early and often with many of them earning raises. Part of that is due to the expectation of a condensed schedule which necessitated the need for a better backup but as more teams shift towards tandems instead of a better starter with a weaker backup, Ullmark could be well-positioned to get a bigger deal next offseason.
It’s also worth noting that Hutton is an unrestricted free agent in 2021 as well. All of a sudden, GM Kevyn Adams will have an opportunity to significantly change things up at that position a year from now and take a chance at shoring up a position that has been a weak spot for the past several years.
Buffalo’s work this offseason isn’t done just yet, however. Even after getting a deal done with Ullmark and Sam Reinhart earlier today, the Sabres still have one more player eligible for salary arbitration in Victor Olofsson whose hearing is scheduled for November 4th. They have roughly $6MM in space to work with so they’ll have no trouble staying under the salary cap when that deal gets done and there should be enough left to try to add another player on the open market if they so desire. If not, they’ll enter 2020-21 with a fair bit of cap space to work with.
Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark
While the Sabres were able to avoid one looming arbitration hearing earlier today when they re-signed Sam Reinhart, they have one on the horizon with goaltender Linus Ullmark. If they’re unable to reach an agreement before Monday’s hearing, they’ll be forced to await the ruling of the arbitrator as mid-hearing settlements can’t be reached this time. Here’s a closer look at his case.
Filings
Team: $1.8MM
Player: $4.1MM
Midpoint: $2.95MM
The Numbers
Ullmark has only been an NHL regular for two years now and both of those were spent in basic platoon situations with veteran Carter Hutton. Hutton has made 78 starts in that span with Ullmark checking in at 68 but the latter has had the slightly better numbers. The fact that Ullmark hasn’t been able to stake his claim to a bigger share of the workload certainly doesn’t help his arbitration case as it takes away the ability to use mid-tier starters as comparable contracts. Further restricting his options is his limited NHL experience overall; while he has played in parts of five straight NHL seasons, he hasn’t yet reached 100 games played.
On the flip side, what will help his cause is that Ullmark did improve his numbers considerably last season from his performance in 2018-19. His save percentage went up by ten points, his GAA went down by 42 points, and his win percentage of 50% was also an improvement and even stands out on a team that only won 43% of his games. By no means was this a dominant platform year but Ullmark’s improvement will look favorable in the eyes of an arbitrator and helps when looking through comparable contracts.
2019-20 Stats: 34 GP (34 starts), 17-14-3 record, 2.69 GAA, .915 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 97 GP (92 starts), 41-41-10 record, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, 3 SO
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.
Alexandar Georgiev (Rangers): Let’s look at one signed in recent weeks as a starting point. While this is a post-ELC deal (Ullmark is three seasons past that point), his numbers this season are relatively comparable to Ullmark’s as are his career totals. On top of that, he subjectively appears to fall within the same category as Ullmark – a young goalie with some perceived upside but whose overall performance seems to fall just below that of a starting netminder.
Contract (2020): Two years, $2.425MM AAV, 2.98 CH%
Platform Stats: 34 GP (32 starts), 17-14-2 record, 3.04 GAA, .910 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 77 GP (71 starts), 35-31-7 record, 3.00 GAA, .913 SV%, 4 SO
Joonas Korpisalo (Blue Jackets): Korpisalo’s playoff performance skews things a bit more in his favor but the regular season numbers are much closer. His injury paved the way for Elvis Merzlikins to take a big chunk of playing time for himself and as a result, his 2019-20 numbers are quite similar to Ullmark’s and again, he’s a netminder that has yet to establish himself as a full-fledged starter and it’s worth noting as well that Korpisalo signed this deal in the same spot as Ullmark is, one year from UFA eligibility.
Contract (2020): Two years, $2.8MM AAV, 3.44 CH%
Platform Stats: 37 GP (35 starts), 19-12-5 record, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 127 GP (116 starts), 60-43-14 record, 2.80 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO
Michal Neuvirth (Capitals) – Given the narrow window to try to work with (possible future starters with mixed results and around 100 career GP), let’s go back in time a little bit. There was a time where Washington hoped that Neuvirth could be a starter of the future. His platform year for this contract came in the lockout-shortened season so some extrapolation is necessary. This likely represents the high end of what Ullmark could stand to realistically receive.
Contract (2013): Two years, $2.4MM AAV, 3.73 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $3.04MM
Platform Stats: 13 GP (12 starts), 4-5-2 record, 2.74 GAA, .910 SV%, 0 SO
Career Stats: 121 GP (105 starts), 55-35-11 record, 2.66 GAA, .909 SV%, 7 SO
David Rittich (Flames) – Let’s now look at someone who had even less of a track record than Ullmark. When Rittich signed this deal, he had basically two years under his belt, one as a backup and one as the strong-side platoon starter. His platform numbers are slightly better than Ullmark’s but Ullmark’s longer track record could help offset that. Like Korpisalo, this is another deal in the one year from UFA category.
Contract (2019): Two years, $2.75MM AAV, 3.37 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $2.75MM (since the Upper Limit remains unchanged)
Platform Stats: 45 GP (42 starts), 27-9-5 record, 2.61 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 67 GP (58 starts), 35-15-8 record, 2.70 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO
Projection
Going through the list, it starts to become clear where Ullmark’s realistic settling spot is. A one-year contract should check in a little higher than Georgiev’s but below that of Rittich’s or Korpisalo’s. (Ullmark’s camp will likely try to argue Neuvirth but the more recent deals are the better comparables.) If it goes to a hearing, the arbitrator is limited to a one-year award as Ullmark is only one year away from UFA eligibility. That one-year award should check in around $2.55MM. If they settle before the hearing and do a two-year contract to avoid having him and Hutton expire at the same time, the AAV should check in closer to $2.7MM, just below Korpisalo and Rittich. Either way, it should come in below the midpoint of their two filings.
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Atlantic Notes: Sabres, Stuetzle, Dermott
With quite a few changes having been made to the Buffalo Sabres roster this offseason, including the additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal into their top six, Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski writes that the team is done upgrading their roster, but a possibility of a trade still exists as the team is overloaded on defense.
The scribe writes that the Sabres could look to find a taker for either Colin Miller or Brandon Montour for a draft pick, which would open up a spot for 23-year-old William Borgen, a highly touted St. Cloud State player who has played just four NHL games so far after two years in the AHL.
- Ottawa Senators newly-drafted forward Tim Stuetzle might have trouble joining the Senators for the upcoming 2020-21 due to his contract with Alder Manheim in Germany. The European rule is that a player with a valid cannot sign an NHL contract after Aug. 15. While that rule doesn’t make as much sense considering the draft was on Oct. 6, the rule still applies, according to deputy commissioner Bill Daly. The Athletic’s Hailey Salvian (subscription required) writes that Mannheim’s general manager Jan-Axel Alavaara said the only way Stuetzle could play for the Senators this season is if Mannheim releases him from his contract, which would then freely allow the 18-year-old to join Ottawa when the 2020-21 season begins. That would also require the German Federation to sign off on it. Salvian notes that no decision has been made on whether Mannheim would allow Stuetzle out of his contract, but the third-overall pick is still recovering from a fractured hand that he suffered on Oct. 13 and was given a six to eight-week recovery time. Of course, neither the DEL or the NHL have started their seasons with the DEL season having been postponed twice already with a current timetable of a December return. Regardless, expect general manager Pierre Dorion to continue to negotiate with Mannheim.
- After being forced to accept a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs, defenseman Travis Dermott will have to bet on himself to benefit from a better deal next season. The blueliner will have to fight for a spot on the Maple Leafs’ blueline, according to Jonas Siegel (subscription required), who adds that Dermott will be fighting for playing time with Justin Holl, Zach Bogosian, Mikko Lehtonen and Rasmus Sandin for the final three spots on Toronto’s defense and easily could be forced to play on his off-hand in order to earn minutes.
Buffalo Sabres Re-Sign Sam Reinhart
With the filing numbers due today in the arbitration case between the Buffalo Sabres and forward Sam Reinhart, the two sides instead have come to terms on an extension. However, the new deal looks more like one that might have been rewarded by an arbitrator anyhow than the long-term agreement many expected. The Sabres have announced a one-year, $5.2MM deal with their young forward. Reinhart will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights again next summer.
Reinhart, 24, has seemingly settled for a one-year deal rather than pursue a long-term contract that almost certainly would have resulted in a higher AAV. The team likely pushed for this short-term resolution, perhaps still skeptical about Reinhart’s long-term value. There is no doubting that the 2014 second overall pick is at least a reliable top-six forward that any NHL team would be lucky to have. Reinhart has not missed a game in the past three seasons and has only missed six total since becoming a full-time player in 2015-16. In his five pro seasons, Reinhart has at least 42 points each year, including four 20+ goal seasons and a career high 65 points in 2018-19. While these are impressive numbers, Reinhart’s 82-game pace this past season would have resulted in a decline to 59 points and still would have kept him from cracking 30 goals. The Sabres may simply want to wait one more year, and risk the price tag on Reinhart going up considerably, to see if that 65-point campaign was an outlier or what’s to be expected for years to come.
Should Reinhart return to 60+ point production in 2020-21, he will be looking at a significant raise in the off-season. Now just one year away from unrestricted free agency when this contract expires, the Sabres will be buying up almost entirely UFA years when they re-sign Reinhart to a multi-year deal. What might the market value be for a soon-to-be 25-year-old with multiple 60+ point seasons on his resume who regularly scores 20+ goals and is a possession leader for his team? Easily over $7MM per year.
Another reason why the Sabres might not have wanted to jump on a long-term deal worth $6-7MM annually this off-season is their current salary cap situation. While Buffalo is not quite in cap trouble (see the Taylor Hall contract), their flexibility is starting to run out. After signing Reinhart, CapFriendly projects the Sabres to have just over $9MM in cap space with just 19 players on the current roster. While arbitration was avoided with Reinhart, the club still has a pair of major cases to be settled. Projected starting goaltender Linus Ullmark is scheduled for a hearing on Monday, with the salary range on an award set at $1.8-$4.1MM and a resolution likely to fall somewhere in that area as well. Early next month, they also have a case with Victor Olofsson on the docket. The 25-year-old forward was an older rookie this past season, but his 42 points in 54 games was impressive all the same. A player who outscored Reinhart on an 82-game pace (64 points) in his first NHL season is likely to command a sizeable salary as well. With the result of those two cases still unknown, first-round prospect Casey Mittelstadt in need of a new deal as well, an a couple of additional roster spots still needing to be filled, the Sabres don’t have as much cap space as it may seem and keeping the salary down on Reinhart may have prevented the team from having to make some difficult roster decisions to get under the cap this season.
Sabres, Linus Ullmark Exchange Arbitration Figures
With their scheduled arbitration hearing now 48 hours away, the Sabres and goaltender Linus Ullmark have exchanged their requested awards. The gap, as usual, is fairly substantial, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that Buffalo has submitted a $1.8MM figure and Ullmark’s side has come in at $4.1MM.
Of course, the standard caveat applies that the arbitrator doesn’t have to pick one of the two figures and instead, will almost certainly pick something between the two. New this year in arbitration cases is that once a hearing begins, it has to go to an award and settlement discussions are no longer permitted at that point. As Ullmark’s asking price comes in below the walkaway threshold of $4,538,938, that won’t be an option if Buffalo is unhappy with the award.
The 27-year-old is in his final year of RFA eligibility so the submissions could only be for one year. Statistically speaking, he was considerably better than veteran Carter Hutton but the two basically split the starts last season (34 for Ullmark, 30 for Hutton). Overall, Ullmark had a relatively strong platform year, posting a 2.69 GAA and a .915 SV% which was a considerable improvement on his numbers in 2018-19 (3.11, .905).
Although he has seen NHL action in five straight seasons, Ullmark doesn’t have a particularly long NHL track record as he has only made 97 career appearances. That certainly won’t help his case if it goes to a hearing and it may be what Buffalo is banking on with their offer which is on the low end for backup goaltenders.
A one-year deal would put both Ullmark and Hutton on track to reach unrestricted free agency in 2021. If new GM Kevyn Adams doesn’t want to be faced with the prospect of having no established goalies under contract a year or so from now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a last-ditch effort to get Ullmark signed for a little longer before Monday’s hearing arrives.
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Buffalo Sabres Re-Sign Casey Nelson
The Buffalo Sabres have re-signed Casey Nelson to a one-year contract worth $700K. The veteran defenseman has played his entire career in the Buffalo organization but became an unrestricted free agent earlier this month.
Nelson, 28, was an undrafted free agent signing by the Sabres in 2016 out of Minnesota State-Mankato and has been in the system ever since. He has played 93 games at the NHL level but was actually limited to AHL-only appearances in 2019-20.
Even if that’s where he will eventually end up, it’s nice for the Sabres to have a player with that much NHL experience at the ready for what will likely be a gruelling, condensed 2020-21 campaign. His familiarity with the organization and inexpensive contract will come in handy when injuries strike.
Scott Wilson Signs With Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers have added some depth to their forward group, agreeing to terms with Scott Wilson on a one-year, two-way contract. Wilson has spent the last few seasons in the Buffalo Sabres organization, playing mostly at the minor league level.
Now 28, Wilson has carved out a long professional career after being the 209th overall selection in 2011. After three seasons at UMass-Lowell, he signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2014 and has suited up in more than 200 NHL games in the years since. Between 2016-2018 he was a regular in the league, even scoring 26 points in 78 games with the Penguins before helping them win the Stanley Cup in 2017. In Buffalo, things haven’t gone as smoothly, with Wilson playing more at the AHL level over the past two seasons.
There is certainly a chance that he can find a full-time roster position in Florida, though it seems more likely that Wilson will hit the waiver wire again before the season begins and spend most of his time in the AHL. That is of course if the AHL has a season, which isn’t certain at this point.
If it doesn’t, Wilson is exactly the type of player that can be kept around in a taxi squad of sorts, ready to jump into the lineup in case of injury.
Buffalo Sabres Sign Steven Fogarty
The Buffalo Sabres have signed free agent forward Steven Fogarty to a one-year, two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level. The 27-year-old has spent the last several seasons in the New York Rangers organization, splitting time between the AHL and NHL.
Fogarty began his professional career with the Hartford Wolf Pack in 2016, signing out of Notre Dame after four successful seasons. The 2011 third-round pick would score 20 points in each of his first two minor league seasons, earning his first NHL call-up in 2018. Since then, he has put up a 52-point season in the AHL and played 18 games in the NHL but is still looking for his first point at the highest level.
For the Sabres, the 6’3″ winger will provide some additional forward depth at an inexpensive price. If he’s to earn a real opportunity to compete for NHL minutes out of camp though, he’ll have to beat out some younger, more dynamic wingers. The Sabres entered the offseason with only a handful of forwards under contract, but have added names like Taylor Hall, Eric Staal, Cody Eakin and Tobias Rieder over the last few weeks. That should give them a much more well-rounded attack, but does make the battle for those last few spots even more intense.
Sabres Sign Taylor Hall
There is a surprise winner of the Taylor Hall sweepstakes as the Sabres have announced that they’ve signed the winger to a one-year, $8MM contract. PuckPedia notes (Twitter link) that Hall will receive a $1MM signing bonus and full no-trade and no-move clauses.
This is certainly a surprise location for the 28-year-old as of the teams that had been rumored to be in on him, Buffalo hadn’t come up. Hall is coming off of a fairly quiet season by his standards but he still put up 16 goals and 36 assists in 65 games between New Jersey and Arizona while chipping in with six points (two goals, four assists) in Arizona’s nine postseason games.
While still productive, those numbers are still well below his Hart-winning numbers from two years ago when he had 39 goals and 54 assists with the Devils. His play since then has led to some questions of whether he has started to tail off or if it’s just a short-term dip which has made his UFA case an interesting one. Between that and the pandemic, his chances for a big-money, long-term deal were basically non-existent so he had floated the idea of being willing to accept a short-term pact in the right situation.
It appears that the right situation is with Buffalo where he’ll join a familiar head coach in Ralph Krueger. The two were together back in Edmonton for the first three years of Hall’s career from 2010-11 through 2012-13 with the winger putting up 50 points in 45 games, the third-best single-season point per game average of his career.
Hall, our number two rated UFA in our Top-50 list, should be an interesting option to play alongside Jack Eichel on Buffalo’s top line. The center surpassed the point per game mark for the second straight season and would give Hall an opportunity to have a strong year offensively and try to position himself to be in a better situation for a more lucrative deal next season. That would seemingly push Jeff Skinner down to the second line with RFA pivot Sam Reinhart, giving the Sabres two potentially strong scoring lines.
This is a deal with minimal risk for Buffalo. If it doesn’t work out, there are no long-term repercussions on the cap and as an expiring contract, he’d carry some trade value closer to the trade deadline. If Hall helps propel them to playoff contention (they’ve missed for nine straight years), it would seemingly give them a leg up on working out a new deal for 2021-22 and beyond.
Buffalo now has roughly $13.4MM in remaining cap space, per CapFriendly, the majority of which will be earmarked for their restricted free agents, highlighted by Reinhart, winger Victor Olofsson, and goalie Linus Ullmark. Kevyn Adams has made some smaller moves to begin his tenure as Buffalo’s general manager but he has now made his first big splash.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was first to report that the two sides were nearing a deal while TSN’s Darren Dreger was first with the $8MM price tag.
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Buffalo Sabres Sign Brandon Montour
The arbitration deadline came and went today without Brandon Montour‘s name on the list, raising some eyebrows around the league. Not to worry, Montour agreed to a new contract with the Buffalo Sabres prior to the deadline. The new one-year contract will carry a salary of $3.85MM.
A new contract likely won’t stop Montour’s name from being constantly thrown around in trade speculation, especially since a one-year deal takes him directly to unrestricted free agency next offseason. The 26-year-old was acquired in 2019 from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Brendan Guhle and a first-round pick, but hasn’t been quite what the Sabres expected over his 74 games in Buffalo.
Once seen as a sure-fire future top-four option, Montour’s game has stagnated in Buffalo to a degree as he recorded just 18 points in 54 games this season. Despite his puck-moving pedigree, he saw less time on the powerplay than Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller, instead logging almost all of his 19 minutes a night at even-strength.
As Kevyn Adams takes over as GM in Buffalo and reviews his roster, it will be interesting to see how he views Montour. Is he a core piece that can be part of the solution, or should he be sold off for more futures at this season’s deadline? The Sabres have only two defensemen signed through 2021-22 (Ristolainen and Miller) and could quickly revamp the entire group behind Dahlin and fellow youngster Henri Jokiharju.
If Montour stays the whole year, he’ll certainly have a reason to perform. When he hits unrestricted free agency he’ll be one of the youngest defensemen on the market and could generate a ton of interest, especially if players like Dougie Hamilton come off the list with extensions.
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