Arbitration Breakdown: Dylan Samberg
Entering the arbitration season, the Winnipeg Jets had the most pending cases. They’ve already settled with Morgan Barron on a two-year, $3.7MM agreement and Gabriel Vilardi on a long-term six-year, $45MM contract. They have one outstanding case remaining with defenseman Dylan Samberg, whom Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman revealed filing details for this morning.
Filings
Team: $2.5MM
Player: $6MM
Midpoint: $4.25MM
The Numbers
Samberg is coming off the best season of his NHL career. Although he was limited to 60 games, he scored six goals and 20 points, both of which are career highs. He also averaged the highest ice time of his career (21:08), which was good for fourth on the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets.
He did finish with the highest +/- rating on the team, although it’s somewhat of an outlier. His 51.2% CorsiFor% was second on the team among defenseman behind Josh Morrissey, but his 91.7% on-ice save percentage at even strength was fourth among defensemen with 20 or more games played. This means that although Samberg was an above-average defenseman for Winnipeg this past season, some of his rating can be explained by the superb work of Connor Hellebuyck behind him.
Still, all of Samberg’s possession and defensive metrics point to him being one of the better defensive defensemen options on the Jets. The team already relies on Morrissey and Neal Pionk for point production from the blue line, giving Samberg more responsibility to shut down the opposing team’s top forward units. Winnipeg feels comfortable putting Samberg in difficult situations, as he started 58.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone last year.
2022-23 Stats: 60 GP, 6-14-20, +34 rating, 26 PIMs, 95 shots, 21:08 ATOI, 51.2 CF%
Career Stats: 216 GP, 9-42-51, +63 rating, 98 PIMs, 235 shots, 16:54 ATOI, 52.1 CF%
Potential Comparable
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contract below fits within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Samberg’s negotiation.
The best potential comparison to Samberg this summer would be Nicolas Hague, who signed a four-year, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV) contract with the Nashville Predators after being acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights. The two are separated by 70 days in age, although Hague has played in 148 more games and has a Stanley Cup ring to his name.
Hague has reached a peak of 17 points in a season, which he has accomplished twice in his career. On average, he has logged about 30 seconds more ice time than Samberg and has started most of his shifts in the defensive zone over the past two years. In contrast, Samberg holds an advantage in possession and defensive metrics.
However, Hague has not had the opportunity to play in front of a goaltender of Hellebuyck’s caliber at any point in his career. Furthermore, despite having a similar frame, Hague is much more physical than Samberg and brings valuable championship experience to the table.
Projection
Given that there are only a few days before Samberg’s arbitration case, it’s unlikely that the two sides will agree on a long-term deal. The Saginaw, MN native is only a year removed from becoming an unrestricted free agent, and there’s been no indication one way or another if he’d like to extend in Winnipeg.
Ultimately, this case will likely play out as they normally do, with the arbitrator falling closer to the middle ground, which would be $4.5MM in this instance. There could be some wiggle room, depending on each side’s arguments, but it’s unlikely to differ far from that.
Photo courtesy of Terrence Lee-Imagn Images.
Canadiens, Jayden Struble Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal
11:05 a.m.: According to PuckPedia, Struble will earn a $1.6MM salary in 2025-26, and a $1.225MM salary in 2026-27. He’ll be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights upon expiry.
8:30 a.m.: Despite having an arbitration hearing scheduled for August 3rd, defenseman Jayden Struble will no longer need it. According to a team announcement, the Montreal Canadiens have re-signed Struble to a two-year, $2.825MM contract ($1.4125MM AAV).
The new agreement is a little lower than Struble’s projected value heading into the summer. Before the start of the free agency period, AFP Analytics projected Struble to receive a two-year, $3.57MM contract in his first trip through restricted free agency. Still, it’s a fair price for a bottom-pairing/depth defenseman who can play on both sides of the blue line.
The Cumberland, RI native recently completed his second season with the Canadiens. Montreal originally selected Struble with the 46th overall pick of the 2019 NHL Draft, and he debuted with the team during the 2023-24 campaign after ending his career with the NCAA’s Northeastern University a year prior.
He’s been serviceable through his first two years, albeit not showing much growth so far. He scored three goals and 10 points in 56 games during his rookie season, averaging 16:07 of ice time per game. He showed some poise on the defensive side of the puck with a 92.1% on-ice save percentage at even strength. Still, his possession game left much to be desired with a 45.7% CorsiFor% at even strength.
Playing in an identical number of games in 2024-25, Struble barely increased his scoring, managing two goals and 13 points while averaging 14:57 of ice time. His possession game improved, averaging a 51.8% CF% at even strength, but his defensive game weakened with an 89.4% on-ice save percentage at even strength.
Although he may have been considered a decent two-way prospect for the Canadiens even a few years ago, too many defensemen have passed him on the organizational depth chart for him to hold the same value. Still, since he can play on both sides of the blue line, Struble has inherent value as a quality injury replacement should Montreal need it.
West Notes: Samberg, Ferraro, Frederic
According to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the details of Dylan Samberg‘s arbitration filing have become public. Since he can become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, Samberg can only be given a one-year deal by the arbitrator. According to Friedman, the Winnipeg Jets have filed at $2.5MM, while Samberg has filed at $6MM.
As Friedman noted in his report, these filings are strategic, as there’s little to no chance that an honest arbitrator would side outright with Samberg’s camp. Samberg and his representation are likely hoping for the arbitrator to meet somewhere in the middle, giving Samberg a substantial raise on his previous $ 1.4 million salary. Still, if Samberg has a legitimate expectation for $6MM, there’s little chance that he and the Jets will come to a compromise before his arbitration case on July 30th.
He’s coming off a quality year with the Jets, scoring six goals and 20 points in 60 games with a +34 rating, averaging 21:08 of ice time per game. Although his +/- was exceptional, much of that is due to the fantastic play of Connor Hellebuyck this past season. Samberg finished fourth on the team among defensemen (with more than 20 games played) in on-ice save percentage at even strength with a 91.7% rating.
Other notes from the Western Conference:
- In their offseason 2025 Summer Trade Watch List, The Fourth Period asserts that although he hasn’t asked for a trade, San Jose Sharks defenseman Mario Ferraro is open to a change of scenery. Ferraro has been in the rumor mill for a few years now, and there’s an argument that the Sharks could move one more defenseman before the start of the regular season. Still, it’s become difficult to trade Ferraro since he’s best positioned as a fifth defenseman on a contending team, and San Jose’s reportedly high asking price of a first-round pick for his services. Now that Ferraro only has one year left on his contract, the Sharks may be more inclined to lower their desired return.
- In a new article from David Staples of The Edmonton Journal, the General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers, Stan Bowman, defended his signing of forward Trent Frederic to an eight-year, $30.8MM contract this offseason. After highlighting his physicality and bulldog mentality, Bowman bordered on calling Frederic irreplaceable in the Oilers’ lineup, saying, “And he’s scored, you know, he scored what, 18 goals twice in a row at a fairly young, younger age. So I think he’s got the game in him. And I think when you add all that up, it comes down to he’s a very unique player. It’s not like if we passed on Frederic, we’ll just go get so-and-so, who’s maybe a little different, but the same type of player. Not a lot of guys like that out there. They just aren’t anymore.“
Sharks, Avalanche Swap Daniil Gushchin, Oskar Olausson
According to a team announcement from the San Jose Sharks, the Sharks have traded forward Daniil Gushchin to the Colorado Avalanche for forward Oskar Olausson. The former is still a restricted free agent while Olausson has one year remaining on his entry-level contract.
It’s a change-of-scenery trade for both forwards, with the beneficiaries being the two teams’ respective AHL affiliates. The only noticeable difference between the two is that Gushchin is considered more NHL-ready, but isn’t quite good enough to be an NHL regular.
The Yekaterinburg, Russia native was drafted by San Jose with the 76th overall pick of the 2020 NHL Draft. He was coming off a relatively impressive season with the USHL’s Muskegon Lumberjacks, scoring 22 goals and 47 points in 42 games with a +21 rating. After another season in Muskegon and one with the OHL’s Niagara IceDogs, Gushchin became a full-time player for the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda beginning in the 2022-23 campaign.
He has enjoyed plenty of offensive success throughout his time with the AHL’s San Jose, scoring 70 goals and 150 points in 182 games, with one goal in four postseason contests. Unfortunately, Gushchin has left much to be desired on the defensive side of the puck, owning a -48 career rating. Still, Gushchin’s ability to score will make the AHL’s Colorado Eagles that much harder to play against, given that they led the AHL in scoring last season with 250.
Unlike Gushchin, the Avalanche used a first-round selection to draft Olausson, who went 28th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft. He was a top-level talent for HV71’s U20 team, scoring 14 goals and 27 points in 16 games. Olausson transitioned to North American hockey a year later, scoring 26 goals and 49 points in 55 games split between the OHL’s Barrie Colts and Oshawa Generals. Given his success in one of the top Canadian major junior leagues, the Avalanche hoped Olausson could be a key contributor in a few years.
Unfortunately, his play with AHL Colorado has zapped much of that hope. Since joining the Eagles ahead of the 2022-23 campaign, the same year Gushchin became a full-time AHL player, Olausson has scored 33 goals and 66 points in 163 contests, with one goal and eight points in 17 playoff games.
Both players have spent limited time in the NHL since making their professional debuts. Gushchin has the edge, featuring in 18 games compared to Olausson’s four. Still, neither player should be expected to drastically improve those totals in 2025-26, unless their NHL club sustains multiple injuries to their forward core.
Free Agent Profile: Luke Kunin
After a few quality years with the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators, Luke Kunin joined the San Jose Sharks in the 2022-23 NHL offseason. Although he’s seen his market value drop over the last few years, Kunin could hold some value at the bottom of a team’s forward core.
Throughout his time in the Bay Area, largely in a bottom-six role, Kunin scored 27 goals and 49 points in 171 games with a -63 rating, averaging 15:30 of ice time per game. Despite the apparent shortcomings in his defensive and possession game, Kunin remained a physical center with the Sharks, averaging 2.29 hits per game.
Unfortunately, even though he was mostly used as a winger, he had a disappointing run with the Columbus Blue Jackets after being acquired at the 2024-25 trade deadline. Going scoreless in 12 contests, Kunin earned a -4 rating with 24 hits, averaging 11:46 of ice time.
Stats
2024-25: 75 GP, 11 G, 7 A, 18 PTS, -28, 55 PIMS, 112 shots, 14:41 ATOI, 41.3 CF%
Career: 434 GP, 73 G, 69 A, 142 PTS, -97, 387 PIMS, 712 shots, 14:53 ATOI, 43.7 CF%
Potential Suitors
With a career faceoff percentage of 44.9%, it’s unlikely that many teams will see Kunin as a viable option for a bottom-six center in the future. However, his physicality may still attract interest from several clubs, especially those aiming to enhance their lineup with a player of his style.
Disregarding available cap space, the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, Utah Mammoth, Vegas Golden Knights, and Washington Capitals all finished in the bottom 22% of the league in hits last season. All seven of these teams outside of Utah should be considered legitimate Stanley Cup contenders entering next season (although the Mammoth should compete for a playoff spot), meaning increased physicality, especially toward the bottom of the lineup, would help in those efforts.
Projected Contract
Kunin is coming off a one-year contract worth $2.75 million with the Sharks, but unfortunately, he is likely to earn less in his next deal. Considering the remaining salary cap space available to teams like the Oilers, Stars, and Lightning, Kunin may end up signing a one-year contract for less than $1MM.
Unlike many of the free agents remaining on the market, his physicality may preclude him from having to settle on a one-year league-minimum offer, or even a professional tryout contract during training camp. Still, even though we are far removed from the opening of free agency, there’s plenty of time remaining in the summer for Kunin to find a new home.
Photo courtesy of Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images.
West Notes: Perry, Lardis, Potter
In a new interview with Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com, veteran winger Corey Perry spoke of his excitement to return to California to continue his playing career. After spending the last year and a half with the Edmonton Oilers, Perry signed a one-year, $2MM contract with the Los Angeles Kings this offseason.
Despite spending the first 14 years of his career with a California-based team, it’s been six years since he’s played for one. After having the final two years of his eight-year, $69MM extension with the Anaheim Ducks bought out before the 2019-20 season, Perry scored 76 goals and 159 points in 404 games between the Dallas Stars, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Chicago Blackhawks, and Oilers. He’s been more successful in the postseason, scoring 28 goals and 52 points in 119 games, including five trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
Still, Perry is far better known for his play in Orange County over the years, scoring 372 goals and 776 points in 988 games as a Duck. Outside of helping the team win their first and only Stanley Cup championship in 2007, Perry earned the Hart Memorial and Maurice Richard Trophy during the 2010-11 season. Although he’s a native of Peterborough, Ontario, Perry considers California home, saying, “Playing in California, playing in Anaheim for 14 years, you kind of call that home. It was a big part of my career, my life, and it always will be.”
Other notes from the Western Conference:
- In a new mailbag from The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus, the columnist opines that while he may not start the season on the Blackhawks’ roster, we should expect to see prospect Nick Lardis at some point during the 2025-26 season. To push back a bit, it may not be the worst idea for Chicago to give Lardis a nine-game tryout this season. The former 67th overall pick of the 2023 NHL Draft had an unbelievable year in the OHL last season, scoring 71 goals and 117 points in 65 games for the Brantford Bulldogs. If the brief tryout doesn’t go well, the Blackhawks can demote him to their AHL affiliate, the Rockford IceHogs, since he’s 20 years old.
- In a write-up on the last pick of the first round of the 2025 NHL Draft, Cullen Potter explained to Aaron Vickers of NHL.com that instead of having a role model in the NHL, Potter has modeled his game after his mother’s, U.S.A. Hockey Hall of Fame inductee, Jenny Schmidgall-Potter. The recent pick of the Calgary Flames and a sophomore at Arizona State University was quoted saying, “I haven’t watched too much tape, but just at the outdoor rinks I definitely probably mimic some of her stuff. I think some people that watched her play say I mimic her a little bit.”
Free Agent Profile: Robby Fabbri
It’s difficult to think of another active player that has had his career derailed by injuries more than Robby Fabbri. A former first-round selection of the St. Louis Blues back in the 2014 NHL Draft, Fabbri’s only season with 70 or more games played came back during his rookie campaign during the 2015-16 season.
Despite his multiple ACL surgeries, Fabbri has shown flashes of being a capable and even above-average tertiary scorer at the NHL level. Still, even though he’s only 29 years old, there’s little chance of Fabbri becoming a consistent top-six winger anymore.
Unfortunately for Fabbri’s earning power, he is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. Again hampered by injuries, Fabbri finished the 2024-25 season with eight goals and 16 points in 44 games for the Anaheim Ducks. It was his lowest output since scoring an identical amount in 2022-23 with the Detroit Red Wings, in 21 fewer games.
Stats
2024-25: 44 GP, 8 G, 8 A, 16 PTS, -6, 20 PIMS, 65 shots, 16:12 ATOI, 42.8 CF%
Career: 442 GP, 106 G, 110 A, 216 PTS, -95, 203 PIMS, 737 shots, 15:05 ATOI, 46.4 CF%
Potential Suitors
He’s not much of a defensive asset as evidenced by his -95 career rating and 90.1 on-ice save percentage. Given that, any team signing Fabbri this offseason will assuredly view him as an option to increase the team’s overall scoring on the fringes.
This means that any team with an open roster spot, is looking to add some scoring, and has a readily available insurance option, should injuries shorten his season again, could offer Fabbri a contract this summer. Teams like the San Jose Sharks, Nashville Predators, Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, and Chicago Blackhawks all make sense in some manner or another.
Projected Contract
Unfortunately, Fabbri’s most recent string of injuries has cost him most of, if not all, of his bargaining power. After earning a $4MM salary from the Red Wings and Ducks the past two seasons, Fabbri is destined for a league-minimum prove-it offer.
Given that most teams have addressed their scoring needs this off-season, or are expecting younger prospects to make bigger steps next season, Fabbri may have to wait until training camp in September for a professional tryout, or have the unfortunate reality of waiting for another player to get injured.
Photo courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images
Dominik Uher Signs With DEL’s Kölner Haie
According to a team announcement, the DEL’s Kölner Haie have signed veteran forward Dominik Uher to a contract for the 2025-26 season. It’ll be Uher’s eighth consecutive season in the DEL, and his first outside the Fischtown Pinguins organization.
It’s been a decade since Uher had any relevance in North American hockey. The Frydek-Mistek, Czechia native was drafted 144th overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins at the 2011 NHL Draft after a relatively productive career with the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs.
Uher began playing for the Penguins organization during the 2012-13 campaign, scoring four goals and seven points in 53 games for their AHL affiliate, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. He improved considerably the following year, scoring seven goals and 24 points in 68 games with a +9 rating.
Despite a relatively tepid showing with the WBS Penguins from 2015 to 2016, the Penguins called up Uher in late December of the 2014-15 season, allowing him to make his NHL debut. He went scoreless across two games, averaging 6:28 of ice time with a -1 rating.
Uher returned to his native Czechia following the 2015-16 AHL season, signing on with the Extraliga’s HC Sparta Praha. He scored 10 goals and 28 points with a +8 rating in 98 games before transferring to the DEL, where he’s been ever since.
Given that it’s been the longest stay he’s had with a team in his professional career, there’s no doubt why Uher has had the most success in the DEL with the Pinguins. Throughout his seven years with the club, Uher has scored 46 goals and 127 points in 300 games, adding another five goals and nine points in 39 playoff contests.
West Notes: Kaprizov, Stars, Grizzlies
On yesterday’s rendition of the Insider Notebook from Bleacher Report, Frank Seravalli provided an update on the ongoing extension negotiations between the Minnesota Wild and star forward Kirill Kaprizov. Seravalli indicated that he believes the Wild will sign Kaprizov to an eight-year, $120MM contract ($15MM AAV) when everything is said and done.
Kaprizov would narrowly beat out Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers as the sport’s highest-paid players. Still, that’s before Draisaitl’s teammate, Connor McDavid, signs his next contract. Despite carrying the highest AAV in NHL history, the rumored deal for Kaprizov would fall $4MM short of Alex Ovechkin‘s 13-year, $124MM contract signed with the Washington Capitals in 2008, which remains the largest contract in NHL history.
The Novokuznetsk, Russia native has all the leverage in his negotiation with Minnesota, scoring 185 goals and 386 points in 319 games since starting his career during the 2020-21 campaign. There’s an open and credible debate whether Kaprizov is worth more than Draisaitl. Still, the Wild’s only pathway to contention is through their star winger.
Other notes from the Western Conference:
- According to a team announcement, the Dallas Stars have elected Joe Nieuwendyk and Ralph Strangis to their organizational Hall of Fame. Nieuwendyk spent seven years as a Star, scoring 178 goals and 340 points in 442 games, helping the team to their first and only Stanley Cup championship in 1999. Meanwhile, Strangis began his broadcasting career with the Minnesota North Stars and remained with the team when they relocated to Dallas. He retired after the 2014-15 NHL season.
- As covered by Belle Fraser of The Salt Lake Tribune, the city of West Valley has approved the sale of the ECHL’s Utah Grizzlies. Since the town had a minority stake in the team, approval from the City Council was required for the sale. The team is expected to be sold to Pro Hockey Partners LLC and moved to Trenton, NJ, after the 2025-26 ECHL season.
Predators’ Jack Ivankovic Commits To University Of Michigan
5:00 p.m.: According to an announcement from the program, Ivankovic has officially committed to the University of Michigan. The expectation is that he’ll join the team as a true freshman for the 2025-26 campaign.
1:01 p.m.: The fifth-highest netminder drafted in the 2025 NHL Draft is expected to bring his talents to the Big Ten Conference for the 2025-26 season. According to Jeff Marek of the Daily Faceoff, goaltender Jack Ivankovic is expected to commit to the University of Michigan.
Ivankovic will join the Wolverines’ roster after a few successful years with the OHL’s Brampton Steelheads. In two years with the team, Ivankovic managed a 39-17-9 record in 68 games with a .907 SV% and 2.93 GAA. Despite a strong performance in the OHL, Ivankovic’s draft stock declined slightly due to concerns about his size. He was selected by the Nashville Predators with the 58th overall pick.
The Mississauga, Ontario native has additionally had a brief international career with Team Canada. Last season, largely playing for Team Canada’s U18 team for the U18 IIHF World Junior Championships, collecting a 6-0-0 record in six games with an impressive .961 SV% and 1.05 GAA. In one tournament contest with the U20 team, Ivankovic suffered an overtime loss to Team Latvia.
It’ll be an entirely new goaltending tandem for the Wolverines during the 2025-26 campaign. The team’s starting netminder from last season, Logan Stein, has graduated, while the team’s backup, Cameron Korpi, has transferred to Union College for the 2025-26 season.
Interestingly enough, the only other netminder on Michigan’s roster is Julian Molinaro, also a Mississauga native, and a recent transfer from Northern Michigan University. There’s an expectation that Ivankovic’s commitment is for the 2026-27 season. Still, head coach Brandon Naurato may already be in contact with the Predators’ front office about Ivankovic beginning his college career sooner rather than later.