Arbitration Breakdown: Dylan Samberg

Entering the arbitration season, the Winnipeg Jets had the most pending cases. They’ve already settled with Morgan Barron on a two-year, $3.7MM agreement and Gabriel Vilardi on a long-term six-year, $45MM contract. They have one outstanding case remaining with defenseman Dylan Samberg, whom Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman revealed filing details for this morning.

Filings

Team: $2.5MM
Player: $6MM
Midpoint: $4.25MM

The Numbers

Samberg is coming off the best season of his NHL career. Although he was limited to 60 games, he scored six goals and 20 points, both of which are career highs. He also averaged the highest ice time of his career (21:08), which was good for fourth on the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets.

He did finish with the highest +/- rating on the team, although it’s somewhat of an outlier. His 51.2% CorsiFor% was second on the team among defenseman behind Josh Morrissey, but his 91.7% on-ice save percentage at even strength was fourth among defensemen with 20 or more games played. This means that although Samberg was an above-average defenseman for Winnipeg this past season, some of his rating can be explained by the superb work of Connor Hellebuyck behind him.

Still, all of Samberg’s possession and defensive metrics point to him being one of the better defensive defensemen options on the Jets. The team already relies on Morrissey and Neal Pionk for point production from the blue line, giving Samberg more responsibility to shut down the opposing team’s top forward units. Winnipeg feels comfortable putting Samberg in difficult situations, as he started 58.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone last year.

2022-23 Stats: 60 GP, 6-14-20, +34 rating, 26 PIMs, 95 shots, 21:08 ATOI, 51.2 CF%
Career Stats: 216 GP, 9-42-51, +63 rating, 98 PIMs, 235 shots, 16:54 ATOI, 52.1 CF%

Potential Comparable

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contract below fits within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Samberg’s negotiation. 

The best potential comparison to Samberg this summer would be Nicolas Hague, who signed a four-year, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV) contract with the Nashville Predators after being acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights. The two are separated by 70 days in age, although Hague has played in 148 more games and has a Stanley Cup ring to his name.

Hague has reached a peak of 17 points in a season, which he has accomplished twice in his career. On average, he has logged about 30 seconds more ice time than Samberg and has started most of his shifts in the defensive zone over the past two years. In contrast, Samberg holds an advantage in possession and defensive metrics.

However, Hague has not had the opportunity to play in front of a goaltender of Hellebuyck’s caliber at any point in his career. Furthermore, despite having a similar frame, Hague is much more physical than Samberg and brings valuable championship experience to the table.

Projection

Given that there are only a few days before Samberg’s arbitration case, it’s unlikely that the two sides will agree on a long-term deal. The Saginaw, MN native is only a year removed from becoming an unrestricted free agent, and there’s been no indication one way or another if he’d like to extend in Winnipeg.

Ultimately, this case will likely play out as they normally do, with the arbitrator falling closer to the middle ground, which would be $4.5MM in this instance. There could be some wiggle room, depending on each side’s arguments, but it’s unlikely to differ far from that.

Photo courtesy of Terrence Lee-Imagn Images.