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PHR Mailbag: Avalanche, Devils, Marner, Canadiens, Flyers, Offseason

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an assessment of the Avalanche, several questions about the Canadiens, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more coming from our most recent call for questions.

Pearlo: Do we have a Colorado team spiraling towards a rebuild? No draft picks in first three rounds of the next draft, a very poor prospect pool, a very inconsistent Necas and a questionably effective Landeskog with no second line capable center in their top six as well as a fair top off after Girard with their defense with only $8MM in cap space to fill holes. Seems to me they are skating on pretty thin ice. What say you?

It’s safe to say you’re not in the glass-full camp.  There will come a time when the Avs need to flip the switch and think about the future.  I don’t think they’re there yet.  After all, they weren’t that far off getting through Dallas in the opening round in a matchup that wouldn’t have happened had it not been for a playoff format that is starting to lose its luster, no matter what the league wants to say.

This is a team that still has one of the top forwards in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  They have one of the top blueliners in Cale Makar.  Those are two premier building blocks signed for at least the next two years; Makar will need a new contract in 2027 (and, barring injury, that will undoubtedly be setting a new NHL record for defensemen at that time).  When you have those pieces in place, it’s hard to say it’s time to take a step back even though your correct assessment of their pick and prospect cupboard suggests it’s an option that should be considered.

I expect Martin Necas will be better next season.  He’s going to have a lot to play for and a full training camp should help after being brought in midseason.  He won’t produce at the same level as Mikko Rantanen but I think he can produce like a top-liner.  On defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Chris MacFarland looks into moving one of Samuel Girard or Josh Manson which could allow the back end to be reshaped a bit and add some cap space potentially.

A lot is going to hinge on if they can address the second center spot.  Whether that’s re-signing Brock Nelson, finding someone externally, or even giving Necas an extended look there, filling that position would really solidify them having two strong scoring lines.  Even with all the question marks (and I’d put goaltending in there as well), that should be more than enough for them to safely be a playoff team.  There will come a time to rebuild.  I don’t think that’s coming for a while yet though.

SpeakofTheDevils: What does a Devils dream offseason look like? Trades? Free Agency? Etc.

First, getting Luke Hughes signed to a long-term deal.  I know the bridge pact would make things a lot easier for GM Tom Fitzgerald in terms of utilizing cap space but if the team feels he’s the high-end defender it looks like he can be, that’s someone you sign now before it gets a whole lot more expensive after a bridge deal.

I wrestled with putting this in their Offseason Checklist earlier this week but finding a way to offload at least most of Ondrej Palat’s contract would go a long way toward giving them some cap space.  I think they’re at a spot where trading with 50% retention is preferable to a buyout but the latter shouldn’t be ruled out.  Palat’s a serviceable player but that’s one spot they can upgrade.

They need to improve on their third center after a tough year from Erik Haula.  They were believed to be looking for that leading into the trade deadline but they might be able to get that in free agency.  They also could use a fourth-line pivot.

Adding a top-six winger would also be a big help.  For them to barely crack the top 20 in goals scored with the roster they have is a problem.  They’re better than that and a key addition should put them back in the top half.  In an ideal world, they land one of the better wingers available.

On defense, I don’t want to say they have an embarrassment of riches but they have a lot of depth and two promising youngsters in the pipeline in Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey.  Can one of those – maybe Jonas Siegenthaler – be packaged with someone like Haula to add a $6MM or so piece to further add on the wing?

And while we’re at it, a veteran goalie that’s a bit more reliable than Nico Daws would be nice too.

I’m sure you were hoping for some names but with how long that list is and their cap situation (barely $12MM in space per PuckPedia), they’re not going to get to all of those without some other moves being made first and I’d simply be guessing on those which doesn’t add much value to the discussion.  Realistically, if they got half or more of these done, it would be a solid offseason.  The dream one might have to wait at least one more year.

Unclemike1526: Since my other question basically was answered, would you please tell me if you’ve ever read anywhere that Mitch Marner won’t play for a rebuilding club?

If it makes you feel any better, the only assistant coach in Chicago I’d have predicted correctly was Anders Sorensen.  Keeping him around would be a good reward for coming up and struggling through the rest of this season so I felt confident about that.  I’d have been hypothesizing Jeff Blashill going after some assistants he had with Detroit had that situation not largely been finalized by last weekend.

As for Marner, I’ve not seen anything credible that says he wouldn’t play for a rebuilding club.  At this point, it feels like his intention is going to be that he’s going to go to the open market and see what’s out there.  If you’re taking that approach, you’re probably not going to rule out a bunch of options off the bat by saying he won’t go to a rebuilding club.

What is Marner’s priority?  Is it to go to a contender?  Not a lot of those have the type of money that he’ll be commanding.  Beyond re-signing with Toronto, Carolina would and, well, that’s about it.  Vegas is being suggested as a speculative link but that would require a lot of money being moved out first although their penchant for big swings means it can’t be ruled out.

But if his priority is top dollar, it might come from a non-contender.  Chicago should be aiming higher this summer.  Utah has an owner willing to spend, a team on the rise, and a lot of cap space.  Anaheim has a promising young core and the purse strings have been loosened a bit.  Columbus nearly made the playoffs with their group and might want to swing big as well.  There’s a compelling case to be made for any of those teams.

In a perfect world, Marner, or any other top free agent really, would get his cake and eat it too by finding a legitimate contender that has a lot of cap space.  He’ll have to figure out what level of importance to place on either of those options.  He has another month to do so before anything probably truly gets ruled out.

frozenaquatic: The NHL has about 10 Kershaws through history. Marner, Matthews, Panarin, Hellebuyck now. Historically, Yashin, Rick Nash, Todd Bertuzzi, Joe Thornton — even Marcel Dionne — were known to disappear come May. Stammer was accused of being a regular-season merchant for a while, but busted the reputation during the Covid Cup Dynasty. What do you think it takes to coach a guy to play with more intensity, take hits, block shots, not make east-west passes, go to the net, and find shooting lanes — to do the things necessary to play good playoff hockey? Who would even want Marner at $12 – 14 million if he has this reputation?

I don’t think there’s a coach out there who’s going to drastically change Marner’s style of play.  Over 700 games into his career (regular season and playoffs), he is who he is at this point.  If there wasn’t a material change under a coach with a tougher reputation in Craig Berube, I don’t think there’s necessarily a coach out there who is going to make him change the way he plays to do the things you listed on a full-time basis.

But what Marner is at this stage of his career is still a really good player.  He’s a premier playmaker, is pretty consistent offensively year-to-year, and his defensive game often goes under the radar.  There’s a reason he’s being projected to sign a record-breaking contract and that’s because of all of the positives he brings to the table.  The playoff performance doesn’t help his cause but it doesn’t materially cripple his value either.

As for who would want him?  The list of who wouldn’t is probably longer than the list of who would.  I expect any team that has that much money to at least kick the tires with probably six to eight teams making him their top target.  Players of his skill level are rarely available ‘for free’ on the open market.  His playoff reputation won’t be scaring many teams off.  Those teams’ coaches will be saying that they can make it work with Marner being exactly who he is.

Jaysen: Let’s say every player is available. What are your top 3 targets for 2C position if you are Kent Hughes? And what do you think is the value of Logan Mailloux in a trade? Not really overly impressed with him but I do know that defensemen take longer to develop.

Finally, Fowler seems like the real deal. I expect Dobes to back up Montembeault this year but next year? If Fowler develops the way he is supposed to, what do you do? Trade Dobes? Or do you go for the big decision and trade Montembeault do let Dobes and Fowler tend the twine??

The qualifier that everyone is available makes this a little unrealistic but I’ll play along and give you a couple more than three.  Anaheim’s Mason McTavish fits the age of Montreal’s core group and feels like someone they’d acquire and then sign long-term.  I don’t see the Ducks moving him though.  I’d throw Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles) and Matty Beniers (Seattle) in there as well but again, I don’t see them being available.  Maybe Barrett Hayton in Utah if they wound up taking a big swing at adding a center in free agency but that’s from a guarantee.  If Florida re-signs Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad and makes Anton Lundell available, he’d be on the list too but that’s three ifs.  The key elements are they’re young, have upside, and several years of team control or contract remaining.  But there’s a reason they’re so hard to come by.

Mailloux is a hard player to evaluate.  He’s still very raw and underdeveloped after his OHL career consisted of just 75 games or barely a single season so he’s behind on the development curve, so to speak.  Offensively, he can probably play at the NHL level now.  Defensively, he has shown flashes of being NHL-level there but at other times, he has struggled.  That’s not uncommon for young blueliners as you note but that type of inconsistency will give some teams pause.

As a young, right-shot blueliner with enough raw skills to play in the top four, there’s a lot to like.  But with how things have gone to this point, there will be some who shy away or come in low with offers knowing there’s some risk in acquiring him.  Other teams will probably feel that their coaches can get those fundamentals in place more frequently, making him a top-four option.  His trade value revolves around how he’s perceived.  If it’s a team that is hesitant, they’re probably going no higher than a second-round pick.  If it’s the latter category, a first-round value isn’t off the table.  I don’t think Mailloux is the centerpiece of a big trade this summer but if they find a team that believes in the upside, he could be a key component of one.

Goalie coaches have said in the past that they generally want a goalie to get at least 100 starts in the AHL.  I’ve seen some say 150.  Jacob Fowler is at all of eight at the moment.  Accordingly, I don’t think he’s even in the equation for full-time NHL duty for at least two more years at which time Sam Montembeault’s deal is up.  To be honest, I’m not even fully certain that Jakub Dobes is the full-time backup in Montreal next season as he’s only at 65 AHL games.  I could see Montreal signing a veteran third-stringer and then calling that goalie up periodically to give Dobes some games in Laval and a higher workload than he’d get as the permanent backup in Montreal.  If all goes well, they’ll have to make room for Fowler eventually but they’re probably not giving that serious thought for another 24 months or so.

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Matt Duchene Seeking Multi-Year Deal This Summer

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Matt Duchene has spent the last two seasons with the Stars on one-year contracts.  However, just because he signed a one-year pact to remain with Dallas last year doesn’t mean he will this time around.  Speaking with reporters today (video link), the center indicated that while he’d like to remain with the Stars, he’s also looking for stability beyond another one-year deal.

The 34-year-old fit in quite well with Dallas after he signed a one-year, $3MM contract following his somewhat surprising buyout from the Predators in 2023.  He put up 25 goals and 40 assists in the 2023-24 campaign before struggling in the playoffs where he had just six points in 19 games.  Still, that was more than a good enough performance to earn a second act with the Stars but once again, their cap situation necessitated another one-year, $3MM agreement.

This season was better than his first with Dallas.  Duchene potted 30 goals along with a career-high 52 assists in 82 games while logging over 17 minutes a night during the regular season.  Unfortunately for him and the Stars, his playoff struggles returned as he scored just one goal with five helpers in their 18 contests before being ousted in five games by Edmonton earlier this week.

While the second straight postseason struggle likely doesn’t help his value, Duchene is still very well positioned to land a fair-sized raise and a multi-year deal this summer if he reaches the open market.  He is a legitimate second center in a market that will feature a lot of teams looking to upgrade down the middle.  On top of that, he has been above average at the faceoff dot in every season but his first back in 2009-10 and with nearly 900 career points in over 1,100 games, he’s a proven commodity.  It’s not outlandish to think he could double his contract from these last two seasons.

But if that happens, Duchene won’t be able to get his wish to stay in Dallas, at least barring some moves to open up salary cap flexibility.  The Stars have less than $5MM in cap space this summer per PuckPedia with several roster spots to fill with that money.  It’d be one thing to try to free up a bit of room to sign Duchene around the salary he’s earned the last two years but it would take multiple moves to have a chance to pay him market value.

With that in mind, Duchene will have to decide between taking less than his value to stay on Dallas with the hopes of getting at least two years on his next deal or testing free agency where he’d undoubtedly get both big money and term.  He has the next month to deliberate just how important remaining with the Stars is to him.

Pacific Notes: Prosvetov, Mammoth, McCarthy

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Earlier this month, goaltender Ivan Prosvetov was released from his KHL contract to pursue an NHL opportunity.  It appears that opportunity might be coming with Calgary as Sport-Express’ Mikhail Zislis reports that the Flames are the main contender to sign the 26-year-old.  Prosvetov posted a 2.32 GAA and a .920 SV% in 38 games with CSKA Moscow this season.  He has 24 career NHL appearances under his belt between Arizona and Colorado plus another 146 outings at the AHL level.  With Daniel Vladar eligible for unrestricted free agency, Prosvetov, if he ultimately signs, could have a chance to battle with Wranglers veteran Devin Cooley for the backup spot behind Dustin Wolf next season.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • The European Assignment Clauses that the Mammoth gave to Daniil But and Dmitri Simashev this week are a little different than usual. Belle Fraser of the Salt Lake Tribune relays that the two are only able to execute that clause after the first 18 months of the contract, or January 1, 2027.  That ensures that Utah will have full developmental control over the first rounders for the first year and a half in North America but if the two aren’t full-fledged NHL regulars by then, they will then have the opportunity to return home if they desire.
  • The Sharks have signed AHL head coach John McCarthy to a contract extension, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link). The 38-year-old has been a fixture with the Sharks going back to his playing days which started back in 2009 and ended in 2018 when he retired from playing to become an assistant with the Barracuda.  McCarthy has been in charge of the Barracuda for the past three seasons with the team making the playoffs for the first time in that stretch this year.

Rangers Gauging Interest Level In K’Andre Miller

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This past season was a rough one for the Rangers who went from a perceived Stanley Cup contender to missing the playoffs altogether.  Along the way, GM Chris Drury tried to shake up his roster while some of his older veterans could still be available as further shakeups are believed to be desired.

It appears that one player who could be in the mix in a shakeup deal is defenseman K’Andre Miller.  In a recent appearance on Sportsnet 590 (video link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that Miller’s name is definitely out there as Drury is trying to gauge the market for some of his players.

Two years ago, it looked like the 25-year-old had taken a big step forward toward becoming an all-situations core blueliner with a 43-point breakout year while logging more than 22 minutes a night.  While New York would have preferred to sign him to a long-term deal at that time, their cap situation forced them to pursue a bridge option instead with the sides agreeing on a two-year, $7.74MM pact.

Unfortunately for Miller and the Rangers, his play took a step back the following year and another step back this season.  Offensively, his output dropped to just 27 points in 74 games while some ill-timed defensive miscues helped contribute to the team going from being one of the stingier defensive teams in 2023-24 to one in the bottom half of the league in that category this season.

While this is generally the time that a player would sign a long-term deal coming off a bridge pact, Friedman suggests that the team isn’t ready to make that commitment at this point.  With two RFA-eligible seasons remaining, they could theoretically look to work out a one-year deal but the back-dated nature of his bridge deal puts his qualifying offer alone at $4.646MM.  Between that and Miller being eligible for salary arbitration, even a one-year deal might be costlier than they can afford.

Per PuckPedia, the Rangers enter the summer with just $8.4MM in cap space with Miller and winger Will Cuylle being their most prominent players to re-sign.  But considering the two of them alone could cost that much let alone filling out the rest of their roster or trying to add an impact player, it’s certainly understandable that Drury is at least exploring what level of interest would be out there in Miller to see if a feasible trade presents itself.  But if one does, New York will have a big hole to try to fill on their back end moving forward as well.

Central Notes: Marchessault, Taylor, Safonov

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While there has been some speculation that Predators winger Jonathan Marchessault might be open to a trade after an underwhelming first year with Nashville, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests it might not be quite that simple.  In the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), he relayed that the list of teams Marchessault might actually be willing to go to is rather small.  Having played exclusively in no-tax states, there’s a sense that Marchessault would prefer not to take a big hit to his bottom line in pay with a move while preferring to go to a legitimate contender, a combination that not a lot of teams can offer.  That said, Marchessault can only control things to a certain point as he only has a 15-team no-trade clause in his deal, one that has four years remaining on it at a $5.5MM cap charge.

More from the Central:

  • The Predators have signed AHL head coach Karl Taylor to a contract extension, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link). Taylor helped lead Milwaukee to the Central Division regular season title for the second straight year and a top-two finish for the fourth straight season so the extension should come as little surprise.  Taylor has been running Nashville’s farm team for the last seven seasons and has not yet had a chance to work at the NHL level.
  • Blackhawks prospect Ilya Safonov has signed a one-year contract extension with Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL, per a team release. The 24-year-old center was a sixth-round pick by Chicago back in 2021, going 172nd overall.  Safonov had a minor role with Kazan at the time but had a breakout 37-point performance in 2022-23, providing some enthusiasm that he could come to North America and push for a spot with Chicago.  However, his production has dipped over the last two years; this season, he had 22 points in 51 outings and will now remain overseas for at least one more year.

Atlantic Notes: Robertson, Hutson, Heponiemi

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While Nicholas Robertson got into a career-high 69 games with the Maple Leafs this season, his trade request from last year still stands, reports Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic (subscription link).  The 23-year-old had a career-best 15 goals this season and even chipped in with a pair of points in three postseason outings.  However, playing time remained hard to come by as he averaged just 12 minutes a night of ice time and it’s clear he’d like a shot at a bigger role elsewhere.  Robertson is a pending restricted free agent owed a qualifying offer of just under $919K.  However, he’s also arbitration-eligible which could push his price tag closer to the $1.5MM range.  If Toronto isn’t willing to pay that price, Robertson could get his wish for a change of scenery in the coming weeks.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • While Lane Hutson will be eligible for a contract extension this summer, Arpon Basu of The Athletic posits (subscription link) that this file might not get done right away. The Canadiens have tried to keep their core players signing below captain Nick Suzuki’s $7.875MM but Hutson’s rookie year, his comparable players, plus the big increases coming in the salary cap will make that difficult.  It’s possible Montreal opts for a shorter-term pact to keep the AAV lower but it could also make sense to see what happens next year and decide from there.  Hutson, a Calder Trophy finalist, had six goals and 60 assists in 82 games this season.
  • After moving on from his team in Switzerland to become a free agent, it looked like there was a chance that Aleksi Heponiemi could be returning to the Panthers. However, that’s not the case as he recently inked a two-year deal with HV71 in the SHL, per a team release.  The 26-year-old has 25 career NHL games with Florida under his belt but after being primarily in the minors in North America, he headed overseas two years ago.  This past season with EHC Biel-Bienne, Heponiemi had 18 points in 37 games.  Florida will retain his rights as a restricted free agent through next summer.

Golden Knights Receiving Interest In Nicolas Hague

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Nicolas Hague has been one of the longest-tenured Golden Knights players.  He has spent the last six seasons with the team and was one of their first-ever draft picks back in 2017.  But his time in Vegas might be coming to an end as David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports that the team has started to field calls about Hague in advance of his upcoming restricted free agency.

The 26-year-old has never been a big point producer at the NHL level as his career high in that regard is just 17, set back in 2020-21 and 2022-23.  However, Hague has been a steady physical shutdown defender throughout his NHL career, a role he should be able to fill for several more years.

This past season, Hague played in 68 games for Vegas, picking up five goals and seven assists while averaging 17 minutes a night.  He also chipped in with 74 blocked shots and 82 hits, numbers that were a fair bit below the 111 and 153, respectively, he had the year before.

Hague is entering his final year of restricted free agency and will have arbitration eligibility for the first time.  His qualifying offer also checks in above his cap hit from the last three seasons at $2.7MM and it stands to reason he could push past $3MM on a one-year deal if he makes it to a hearing.  Meanwhile, a longer-term pact could land closer to the $4MM range.

That’s an amount that the Golden Knights might not be able to afford.  They presently have $9.6MM in cap room, per PuckPedia, but have several roster spots to fill with that money.  Reilly Smith, Victor Olofsson, Brandon Saad, and Ilya Samsonov highlight the list of pending unrestricted free agents while Hague and Alexander Holtz are the notable restricted free agents.  If Vegas wants to try to add a piece or two this summer, they’re going to have to go cheap to fill the other roster spots which could push Hague out, making his case one to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.

Senators Begin Contract Talks With Claude Giroux

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May 30th: A few weeks after this initial report that informal discussions had begun, Garrioch shared today that face-to-face talks between Giroux and the Senators would start next week. The expectation is that if everything goes well, a new contract will be agreed upon then.

May 15th: Forward Claude Giroux highlights Ottawa’s list of pending unrestricted free agents but if they get their way, he won’t make it to the open market altogether.  Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the two sides have started informal discussions on a new contract for the 2025-26 season while GM Steve Staios is expected to meet with Giroux’s agent in the next few weeks to try to hammer out a deal.

Giroux joined the Senators three years ago as an unrestricted free agent, inking a three-year, $19.5MM deal on the opening day of free agency.  It’s fair to say the contract worked out quite well for Ottawa as the 37-year-old put up 71 goals and 122 assists in 245 games with the Sens while winning 59.1% of his faceoffs, one of the top rates in the NHL over that time.  This past season, he had 15 goals and 35 helpers in 81 outings while logging over 18 minutes a night of ice time.

While his age makes a raise quite unlikely, it wouldn’t be surprising if term is a key element in these negotiations.  Garrioch cites league executives who feel a one-year deal between $3MM and $4MM would be palatable for both sides while it’s worth noting that Giroux would be eligible for performance incentives in his deal if it’s a one-year pact.  However, given the anticipated demand for centers on the open market this summer, Giroux could have enough leverage to try to get a second year on the deal while also making him ineligible for those performance bonuses.

A veteran of 1,263 NHL games over parts of 18 seasons between Philadelphia, Florida, and Ottawa, Giroux has recorded 365 goals and 751 assists.  His 1,116 points put him in 66th place in NHL history in that regard.

Ottawa enters the offseason with around $17.5MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, giving Staios some flexibility to work with.  However, with that money, he has to re-sign or replace Giroux, re-sign trade deadline acquisition Fabian Zetterlund, add a second goalie (or promote Leevi Merilainen to the role), and fill out the roster with a handful of other pieces.  While that probably won’t leave them a lot of room to go shopping on the open market, they should have enough space to work with to get something done with Giroux in the coming weeks.

Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those already eliminated through the first couple of rounds.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at New Jersey.

Over the first half of the season, the Devils looked like a potential contender before injuries to several key players dropped them in the standings.  While they managed to hold onto a playoff spot, they were eliminated quickly by Carolina.  While GM Tom Fitzgerald has suggested he’d like to take some big swings this summer, this checklist is if they opt to take a more measured approach if those bigger moves don’t pan out.

Look For Center Help

This was an area that the Devils were believed to be looking into during the season but once Jack Hughes went down with his shoulder injury that required surgery right before the trade deadline, those plans were understandably shelved.  After all, when you’re missing multiple key pieces, pushing in some prominent trade chips for short-term help might not be the best way to go.

Between Hughes and Nico Hischier, New Jersey’s top two middlemen are in place for at least a couple more years until Hischier’s deal comes to an end; Hughes is signed through 2030 so he’s around for a while yet.  After that, things get a bit murkier.

The hope was that Erik Haula would be the right fit for the third line but while he started off pretty well in his tenure with the Devils three seasons ago, this was a particularly rough year for him.  His point-per-game average dropped to the lowest it has been (0.30) since his sophomore year back in 2013-14 when he spent a lot of time on Minnesota’s fourth line as he was getting acclimated to the NHL.  He has one year left on his deal at a $3.15MM price tag and is the type of player who could plausibly be added to a trade to help match money.  Alternatively, if they were to add another center and keep Haula, he’d fit in well on the left wing, a position he has plenty of experience at.

Another internal option that has run hot or cold is Dawson Mercer.  After putting up 56 points in his sophomore year, he has managed just 33 and 36 the last two seasons.  Meanwhile, he hasn’t fared particularly well when asked to play down the middle.  He has two years left on his deal at a $4MM cap charge and he’ll still be RFA-eligible at its expiration.  Not surprisingly, he could be someone that Fitzgerald is open to moving to shake up his roster.  In terms of being a solution at the 3C spot, he’s probably only a stopgap one whenever injuries arise.  If he and Haula aren’t deemed ideal for the role, they’ll have to look externally.  They may not have much to spend on it, however, as we’ll get into over the next couple of sections.

Before moving on, it’s also worth noting that Curtis Lazar, who has often anchored the fourth line when healthy in recent years, is also an unrestricted free agent.  So too is Justin Dowling who spent a lot of time with the Devils this season.  Paul Cotter has played a few games down the middle over his career but is a better fit on the wing so this is another spot they’ll need to fill this offseason.

Re-Sign The Other Hughes

While one Hughes brother is signed for several more years, the other isn’t.  Defenseman Luke Hughes will be a restricted free agent this summer after completing the first year of his entry-level contract.  While he won’t be eligible for an offer sheet (he didn’t play enough to accrue a season in the first year of his deal), he’s still going to be in line for a significant raise after putting up 91 points in 153 games over the last two seasons, especially with the big jump coming to the salary cap.

Before getting into the bridge versus long-term debate, this is a good time to mention their cap situation.  Per PuckPedia, the Devils have roughly $12MM in cap space at their disposal with a few forward spots to fill (including those center positions), a new deal for Hughes, and one other possible opening in the next section.  On top of that, they likely want to leave themselves some in-season wiggle room so not all of that may be spendable.

While there’s enough of a track record to make a long-term deal feasible, New Jersey’s cap situation might dictate they go with a short-term pact, allowing for some extra flexibility, especially if Fitzgerald is able to make a big swing or two as he’s hoping for.  Notably, Hughes has five years of club control remaining, giving them a few more options on a short-term agreement as a bridge deal could conceivably be four years long with him still being restricted at the end of it.  A two-year agreement could land around the $5MM range while a four-year pact likely could push past $6MM per season.

On the flip side, Hughes could be viewed as the top priority of the offseason which could allow the two sides to work out a longer-term pact up to the maximum of eight years.  There are recent comparables to work with in Owen Power (seven years, $8.35MM per season) and Brock Faber (eight years, $8.5MM per season) although those were obviously signed before the projection of a faster-escalating cap came into play.  But New Jersey should know that if they want to go long-term with Hughes, the price tag likely starts with an eight.

With no arbitration or offer sheet rights, this is one of those cases that could linger toward training camp.  But with the Devils needing to know what money they have available to fill their other holes on the roster, this is something that they’re going to want to get done sooner than later.

Look For Goalie Insurance

Starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom has just one year left on his contract before being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  Jake Allen is set to hit the open market this summer and profiles as one of the top netminders available in a particularly thin class.  This season, their goaltending position was one of strength but it’s already looking a little shallower.

Yes, Nico Daws is already under contract at a cap hit that’s less than $40K above the league minimum.  While that’s ideal from a cap standpoint, he’s coming off a particularly rough year with AHL Utica that saw him put up a 3.16 GAA and a .893 SV% in 34 games.  Meanwhile, while he fared much better in six NHL games, his career numbers in 54 outings aren’t the strongest.  It’s possible that the plan is to give him a shot at being the full-time backup and if that’s the case, they’re going to want some insurance, either as someone who could battle with Daws for the number two spot or come up if he struggles.

Alternatively, they could look for a more proven second option with an eye on starting Daws in the minors again, pending waiver clearance.  Markstrom’s former Calgary teammate Daniel Vladar could be an option, as could Ilya Samsonov if he leaves Vegas.  Allen realistically shouldn’t be ruled out either after a relatively solid first full season with them.  Of course, those options cost more and would cut into what they can spend for help down the middle or when working out a deal with Hughes.  Some of those players might require more than one year which would at least give them one proven option under contract beyond 2025-26 as well.

Utilize Defensive Depth

New Jersey has put together a solid defensive group with two promising youngsters behind them in Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey.  As things stand, they have more than $27MM committed to their blueliners, a cost that’s only going to go up considerably once Hughes signs.  It’s not out of the realm of possibility that their back end will be the most expensive in the league, costing more than 35% of the salary cap in the process.

Once Hughes signs, their lowest-paid defenders will be Jonas Siegenthaler ($3.4MM) along with Johnathan Kovacevic and Brenden Dillon ($4MM apiece).  Individually, these aren’t bad value contracts but with that much tied up in their top six and Nemec and Casey in the wings, there’s a case to be made that they might be better off dealing from their surplus of veterans, a move that would open up a spot for one of the youngsters and potentially some additional cap flexibility.

The challenge here revolves around handedness and it’s not necessarily the normal one.  Both youngsters are right-shot players as are veterans Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, and Kovacevic.  At a $9MM price tag for three more years, Hamilton will be difficult to move, at least without considerable retention.  Pesce just signed last summer and has a full no-trade clause while Kovacevic only signed his extension less than three months ago so he’s probably safe as well.

Speculatively, Siegenthaler would be the likeliest to move if the Devils do deal from their depth.  Being the cheapest player helps but he has primarily played top-four minutes over the last four years and with three years left on a reasonable contract, he would yield a solid return.  That would put them in a rare spot of having more right-shot options than lefties but that would help open up some options for Fitzgerald to try to make a splash this summer.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Snapshots: Islanders, Nabokov, Andersson, Hagens

at CDT | by 7 Comments

New Islanders GM Mathieu Darche met with the media today (video link) for the first time since being hired.  While he addressed the coaching situation, he was also asked about the upcoming draft.  New York now holds the number one selection following a surprising victory at the draft lottery, leading some to wonder if they might be open to moving it to help get back into the playoff picture for next season.  While he stopped short of ruling out the idea outright, he did his best to pour cold water on the idea, saying that “Someone would have to really knock my socks off to trade that pick.”  The Isles have only picked first overall twice this century, goalie Rick DiPietro (2000) and John Tavares (2009).  Barring an offer Darche can’t refuse, they’ll be adding to that count in a little under a month.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Avalanche appear to be likely to sign goalie prospect Ilya Nabokov to an entry-level contract, suggests Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette (Twitter link). The 22-year-old was a second-round pick last year after a breakout year with Metallurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL.  This season, he was nearly as dominant, posting a 2.22 GAA and a .923 SV% in 49 games.  With Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood both signed for next season already, one scenario that could come into play is Nabokov signing with a European Assignment Clause which would allow him to return to Russia for the upcoming season and then make the move to North America for 2026-27.
  • Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson played through a fractured fibula at the end of the season and at the recently completed World Championship, relays Uffe Bodin of Hockey Sverige. The injury isn’t expected to require surgery so there shouldn’t be any issues heading into training camp when he’ll be beginning a contract year.  Andersson played in 81 games with Calgary this past season, notching 11 goals and 20 assists while logging nearly 24 minutes a night of playing time.
  • Speaking with reporters earlier this week including Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald, top prospect James Hagens hasn’t decided if he’ll return to Boston College for his sophomore year. The 18-year-old is likely to go in the top five in the draft next month and will be eligible to play in the minors if the team that picks him wants to start him there if he can’t make the NHL roster.  Alternatively, if he’s not deemed ready for pro hockey, he could return to school or go to OHL London, which holds his rights at the junior level.  Hagens had a solid freshman year as one of the youngest players in college hockey, notching 11 goals and 26 assists in 37 games for the Eagles.

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