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Five Key Stories: 9/4/23 – 9/10/23

September 10, 2023 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The first full week of September is in the books and with training camps fast approaching, there was some news of note around the hockey world which is recapped in our top stories.

More Tryouts: The month of September can be colloquially thought of as PTO season as unsigned players look to catch on before camps start.  Last week, several veterans inked tryout deals and several more did so over the past seven days.  Among those with recent NHL experience, Danton Heinen will look to have a second go-round with Boston while Ryan Dzingel will try to do the same with Arizona. Noah Gregor is hoping to catch on with Toronto, Saku Maenalanen is the latest to join Colorado’s camp, while Colin White will be heading to a very crowded forward battle in Pittsburgh.  Quite a few more tryouts are expected to be coming over the next week or two.

Late Moves For Tampa Bay: The Lightning thought they had filled a spot on their fourth line early in free agency when they signed winger Josh Archibald to a two-year deal.  However, after he informed the team that he no longer intends to play this season, Tampa Bay elected to terminate his contract.  They quickly found a replacement though, inking Tyler Motte to a one-year deal worth the same $800K that they were set to pay Archibald.  It could be argued that the moves work out to a net upgrade for the Lightning with Motte being a bit younger and having a slightly better track record of production.

Eight For Sanderson: The Senators haven’t shied away from extending their core players early.  They’ve elected to do so once more, signing defenseman Jake Sanderson to an eight-year, $64.4MM extension that will begin in the 2024-25 season.  The deal buys out Sanderson’s five remaining RFA years plus three seasons of UFA eligibility.  The 21-year-old had a strong rookie year last season, collecting 32 points in 77 games while logging nearly 22 minutes a night.  This deal will make Sanderson, the fifth-overall pick in 2020, Ottawa’s highest-paid defenseman as it checks in just ahead of Thomas Chabot.  Ottawa’s young core consisting of Sanderson, Chabot, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Josh Norris, are all signed through at least the 2027-28 campaign.

Off-Ice Moves: After handing out extensions to Arizona’s coaching staff, it was GM Bill Armstrong’s turn to receive one as well as he inked an agreement that will keep him in charge of the Coyotes through the 2028-29 season.  Armstrong has been at the helm for four seasons now, embarking on a full-scale rebuild.  This deal means he’ll be the one to take them out of it down the road.  Meanwhile, Bruce Boudreau has a new job but not with an NHL team.  Instead, he has joined Niagara of the OHL as a Senior Advisor.  Boudreau ranks 21st all-time in NHL games coached and wins and it remains to be seen if he’ll one day get a chance to add to those numbers.  Lastly, after not being with a team last season, Doug Wilson is back in an NHL front office as he was hired by Pittsburgh as a Senior Advisor.  He spent over 25 years on San Jose’s management team and will now serve as a member of Kyle Dubas’ new-look front office.

Second Bridge For Frost: With Philadelphia’s cap situation, the only way they could afford to re-sign Morgan Frost was with another short-term bridge contract.  The two sides have now agreed on one as he signed a two-year, $4.2MM deal.  The 24-year-old had a career year last season, notching 19 goals and 27 assists in 81 games, providing quite a nice return on a one-year, $800K deal.  The move gives the Flyers a chance to evaluate if he’s indeed a long-term piece of the puzzle.  If he is, they’ll owe him a $2.4MM qualifying offer in 2025.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL Week In Review

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

September 10, 2023 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $75,593,365 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Evangelista (two years, $797.5K)
F Juuso Parssinen (one year, $850.8K)
F Philip Tomasino (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Evangelista: $82.5K
Parssinen: $57.5K
Tomasino: $212.5K
Total: $352.5K

After being a full-time regular in his rookie year, Tomasino spent half of last season in the minors before being brought up in February where he was quite productive with 18 points in 31 games.  If he can push through and reach 50 points, it’s possible that he’s a candidate to bypass a bridge contract but at this point, a two-year agreement just past the $2MM mark seems like a possible landing spot for him.  His bonus is an ‘A’ one and as long as he’s up for the full season and stays healthy, he should be able to reach it.

Parssinen also started in the minors last season although he was recalled to stay much earlier back in November.  The 45 games he played in 2022-23 were his first at the NHL level which, coupled with however many he plays this year, probably won’t be enough for a long-term agreement.  Evangelista was up and down for most of last season but was quite productive in a limited role in Nashville with 15 points in just 24 games which should earn him a full-time look this year.  How he fares will go a long way toward determining if he’s a candidate for a long-term second deal or not.  Both he and Parssinen’s bonuses are games played-based.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Alexandre Carrier ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dante Fabbro ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Denis Gurianov ($850K, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($775K, UFA)
G Kevin Lankinen ($2MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($775K, UFA)
F Thomas Novak ($800K, UFA)
F Kiefer Sherwood ($775K, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($775K, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($1.7MM, UFA)

Trenin wasn’t quite able to get back to the 17-goal mark following a breakout 2021-22 campaign but he was able to reach 24 points again for the second straight year.  However, as a physical winger, he’s still well-positioned to land a raise past the $2MM AAV should he make it to the open market next summer.  Gurianov comes over after being non-tendered by Montreal following a rough year that saw him score just seven goals in 66 games.  If he wants to get some stability and security on a contract, he’ll need to get back to pushing toward the 20-goal mark, not the 20-point plateau.

Novak is one of the more intriguing pending UFAs in this group.  This time a year ago, he was a fringe NHL player and he even spent 25 games in the minors a year ago.  However, he was extremely productive with Nashville, recording 17 goals and 26 assists in just 51 games.  Considering his past and the fact he was up and down through the first half of last year, Novak opted to take a guaranteed one-way offer, a move that likely left money on the table considering how he finished the year.  Even if he winds up with 43 points over a full season instead of 60% of one, he’s well-positioned to earn a sizable raise when he puts pen to paper on his next deal.  There’s a good chance the starting salary on it will beat his career earnings.

Smith was a full-time NHLer for the first time last season after a productive campaign with AHL Milwaukee the year before.  With nearly 200 hits in 69 games, he’s the type of energetic forward that teams often like on the fourth line.  If he can lock down a regular role again this year, he could push for a seven-figure deal next summer.  Jankowski, Sherwood, and McCarron will all be in the mix in training camp but even if they can secure a regular role, their respective histories suggest that they’re likely to continue to hover around the minimum salary moving forward.

Barrie had one of the best statistical seasons of his career last year with 55 points in 85 (yes, 85) games between Edmonton and Nashville.  However, his defensive struggles have hampered him in his previous times through free agency and it seems likely that will happen again.  A deal around this one is certainly possible but getting much more will be difficult.  After a breakout year in 2021-22, Carrier struggled last season both in terms of performance and injury-wise.  He was a top-four piece in 2021-22 but more of a third-pairing one last year.  If he’s the former in 2023-24, he’ll be in line for at least a small raise.  If he’s the latter, he should expect a drop closer to the $1MM range.  Fabbro’s future in Nashville has been subject to speculation in recent years as he has stagnated from a development perspective.  His ATOI went to a four-year low last season while his offensive production was cut in half.  This deal feels like it could be a last-chance opportunity and if he doesn’t rebound under new head coach Andrew Brunette, he’s quite likely going to be in trade speculation once again.

Lankinen didn’t see a lot of action last season, making just 18 starts.  However, his save percentage of .916 was well above the league average which earned him a small raise to stick around.  Lankinen still only has 88 career NHL appearances under his belt which limits his earnings upside but another season like 2022-23 could put him in a spot where another small raise should be achievable.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Cody Glass ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($3.185MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM, UFA)

Last season saw Nyquist deal with a shoulder injury that ended his regular season early while he wasn’t able to produce at the level he was accustomed to before then.  He did put forth a strong playoff showing with Minnesota but the market wasn’t kind to many wingers this summer.  This price point is certainly reasonable for a middle-six winger and if he rebounds offensively, it will become a team-friendly deal.  After struggling the previous few seasons, Glass made some big strides last season, setting career highs across the board while establishing himself as an every-game regular.  He’s not at the level his original draft slot might suggest but now he looks like at least a capable part of Nashville’s secondary core moving forward.  This deal amounts to a second bridge contract, giving both sides more time to assess things; he’ll have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025.

It wasn’t that long ago that there were questions about Saros’ ability to hold up as a starter.  It’s safe to say those have long been dealt with as he was once again one of the top goalies league-wide last season while playing the most minutes for the second year in a row.  Being undersized will scare some teams off if he makes it to the open market in 2025 but if he has two more years like this before getting there, Saros should find himself closer to the upper end of the salary scale for netminders.  Probably not right at the top but an extra couple million per season (if not a bit more) should be achievable.  That would put him in the top handful of goaltenders across the league which, based on his recent play, is exactly where he should be.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM, UFA)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Colton Sissons ($2.875MM, UFA)

Sissons’ deal has always been a strange one as the Preds inked him to a seven-year deal back in 2019 hoping his offense would come around.  It didn’t for a while but has been a bit better the last couple of seasons, hovering around the 30-point mark.  That, coupled with his two-way game, has given Nashville a decent return the last couple of years.

McDonagh came over as a salary dump from Tampa Bay but is still capable of playing top-four minutes for now.  Unfortunately for the Predators, his offensive output has fallen off the last few years which makes this a negative-value contract.  They’re able to absorb it without too much issue right now, however.  Schenn had a good showing with Vancouver and Toronto last season, making him one of the more sought-after blueliners this summer.  He’s best used on the third pairing which makes this an overpay relative to his role but with their current cap space, they can afford it.  Lauzon’s deal was an odd one as his play to that point wasn’t worth the cap hit.  Poile was hoping the 26-year-old had another gear to get to.  If he can over the next few years, this will hold up nicely but if he remains a third-pairing depth option, it’s another overpayment.

Read more

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Filip Forsberg ($8.5MM through 2029-30)
D Roman Josi ($9.059MM through 2027-28)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($4.5MM through 2026-27)

Some regression was expected from Forsberg after his career year in 2021-22 and while that happened, he was still producing at a pretty good rate (42 points in 50 games) before his season ended two months early due to an upper-body injury.  This deal feels like one that is always going to be at least a little above-market but former GM David Poile still gave it to him to ensure a key winger would be in the fold for the long haul.  It’s a small overpayment they can afford.  O’Reilly’s addition was an odd one after it looked like they were selling when they moved on from their former top two middlemen.  The term is a bit long but even if he settles into a second-line role by the time it expires, it should hold up relatively well.

Josi signed this contract as an extension in 2019 and then went on to win the Norris Trophy that same season.  In the three years he has played on this deal, the 33-year-old has provided a solid return so far, averaging nearly a point per game while averaging over 25 minutes a night.  He’s unlikely to maintain that by the end of the contract so the last couple of years could be problematic but for now, they’re paying him like a high-end elite defenseman and he’s playing like one.

Buyouts

F Matt Duchene ($2.556MM in 2023-24, $5.556MM in 2024-25, $6.556MM in 2025-26, $1.556MM from 2026-27 through 2028-29)
F Kyle Turris ($2MM through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Mattias Ekholm ($250K through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($4MM through 2024-25)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Novak
Worst Value: McDonagh

Looking Ahead

As a result of Nashville’s significant churning of its old veteran core, GM Barry Trotz now finds himself with a pretty clean slate to work with (even with all the dead cap they have).  They have ample cap room to add this season, either to add some pieces if they’re in the mix at the trade deadline or to act as a facilitator by taking on an unwanted contract along with some additional pieces for the future.

They have roughly $60MM in commitments for 2024-25 but just 10 players signed.  Beyond Barrie, most of the expiring deals aren’t big-ticket ones so it will be a matter of picking a few to bring back and then bringing in replacements for the others from there.  Trotz has already put his stamp on the team this summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar level of turnover (in quantity, not necessarily quality) next summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville Predators| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

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Snapshots: Hellebuyck, Oilers, Trade Deadline

September 10, 2023 at 6:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

When word surfaced this summer that Connor Hellebuyck was hoping for a long-term deal worth around $9.5MM per season, trade speculation cooled sharply.  To that end, Murat Ates of The Athletic speculates (subscription link) that the Jets could shift focus and look to try to extend the netminder on a short-term contract.  Since Winnipeg’s books are relatively clean for 2024-25, they could theoretically make an offer around that range in the hopes that they could entice him to stick around for at least another year or two.  That would allow Hellebuyck to get the top dollar that he’s seeking while extending Winnipeg’s current window, one that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff believes his team can contend in.  If a long-term deal at that price point can’t be done, this could be the next best option.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal breaks down the various camp battles that will be coming at training camp. The most notable one is likely the battle for the 12th (and quite possibly final) forward spot on the roster.  Veterans Sam Gagner and Brandon Sutter will be in camp on tryouts while internally, James Hamblin and Raphael Lavoie are candidates.  Lavoie’s contract – he opted to take his qualifying offer instead of signing a two-way deal that traded some NHL pay for more guaranteed money – makes him hard to fit in on their books.  Accordingly, Leavins gives Gagner the edge for now but wonders if Edmonton might be keeping an eye on the waiver wire as camp progresses to see if another option presents itself.
  • The trade deadline has tentatively been set for March 8th, relays Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link). While that seems later than usual – it’s often in late February – there are games scheduled until April 18th; the deadline typically falls 40 days before the end of the regular season.

Edmonton Oilers| Snapshots| Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck

2 comments

Josh Archibald Clears Unconditional Waivers; Contract Terminated

September 10, 2023 at 1:10 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

09/10/23: According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, Archibald has cleared unconditional waivers and has had his contract terminated.

09/09/23: After signing Josh Archibald back in July, his time with the Lightning has come to an end.  The team announced today that they have placed the winger on waivers today for the purpose of terminating his contract.  GM Julien BriseBois released the following statement:

Yesterday, I was informed by Josh’s agent, and by Josh himself in a subsequent conversation, that he was not planning on playing hockey for the time being and that he would not be reporting to training camp. Consequently, Josh was placed on unconditional waivers earlier today for the purpose of terminating his contract.

The 30-year-old spent last season with Pittsburgh, primarily playing on their fourth line.  Archibald got into 62 games with the Penguins, picking up six goals and six assists while averaging just shy of ten minutes per night.  Looking to add to their toughness, Tampa Bay signed Archibald to a two-year deal that carried a cap hit of $800K along with a 16-team no-trade clause.  To create the cap room to fit him in, they flipped Pat Maroon with partial retention to Minnesota, a move that freed up precisely $800K.

However, it appears that Archibald had a change of heart and has now decided against playing this season altogether according to Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).  Tampa Bay could have elected to suspend Archibald without pay which would have kept him on their reserve list if he had a change of heart but instead, they’re parting ways altogether, a move that opens up a contract slot, one they quickly utilized to sign Tyler Motte to a one-year, $800K deal.

Archibald’s NHL career stands at 305 games played over eight seasons with Pittsburgh (two separate stints), Arizona, and Edmonton.  He has 83 points and 855 hits in those appearances but for now, at least, those totals won’t be going any higher.

Tampa Bay Lightning| Transactions| Waivers Josh Archibald

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Prospect Notes: Sokolov, Penguins, Reichel

September 9, 2023 at 5:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The issue for Senators restricted free agent Egor Sokolov is the AHL salary portion of what’s expected to be a two-way deal, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch.  The 23-year-old spent most of last year with AHL Belleville where he impressed with 21 goals and 39 assists in 70 games.  Sokolov also got into five games with Ottawa, picking up a goal and an assist.  Sokolov is now waiver-eligible so if he wants a chance to prove his worth to 31 other teams out there, this is a deal that will need to get worked out sooner rather than later.  If he can earn an NHL spot somewhere, the AHL portion of the deal won’t matter but if Sokolov clears waivers, that will be a key part of the contract which is why it’s being haggled over.  He is one of just eight remaining unsigned RFAs league-wide.

Other prospect news around the NHL:

  • A trio of Penguins prospects are dealing with injuries and aren’t expected to play at their upcoming rookie tournament, relays Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Those players are defensemen Owen Pickering, Nolan Collins, and winger Raivis Ansons.  Pickering is the most notable of the group as Pittsburgh’s first-round pick in 2022 and in theory could have an outside shot at cracking their lineup in camp.  He and Collins are ticketed to return to junior otherwise while Ansons should once again suit up in AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.  There is no word about the nature of the injuries or how long each player might be out for.
  • Jets prospect Kristian Reichel has changed agencies, joining Octagon per an announcement on Twitter from agent Allan Walsh. The 25-year-old is entering the final season of a two-year, two-way contract and will be a restricted free agent this summer.  Last season, Reichel spent most of the season in the minors, picking up 24 points in 61 games.  He did get into a pair of games with Winnipeg, however, and has 15 career appearances at the top level over the past two seasons.

Ottawa Senators| Pittsburgh Penguins| Winnipeg Jets Egor Sokolov| Kristian Reichel| Owen Pickering| Raivis Ansons

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Penguins Sign Colin White To PTO Agreement

September 9, 2023 at 4:50 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

4:50 PM: The PTO signing of White has now been officially announced by the Penguins.

2:07 PM: The training camp roster continues to grow for Pittsburgh as TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports (Twitter link) that center Colin White has agreed to a PTO agreement with the Penguins.

The 26-year-old was bought out by Ottawa last spring despite having three years and $15.75MM left on his contract.  He quickly landed with Florida, inking a one-year, $1.2MM deal on the opening day of free agency.  White wound up playing a very limited role with the Panthers last season, getting into 65 regular season games where he played pretty much exclusively on the fourth line.  He was relatively productive in that role, notching eight goals and seven assists despite logging less than 10 minutes a night.

White was a regular in Florida’s lineup for their run to the Stanley Cup Final, playing in all 21 games.  However, his playing time was even more limited at less than eight minutes a night while his production dipped to just two assists without scoring a goal.  While Florida could have retained White’s rights by issuing a $1.2MM qualifying offer in June, they opted not to do so, sending him back into the open market.

White joins winger Austin Wagner plus defensemen Mark Pysyk and Libor Hajek as those entering Pittsburgh’s training camp on tryout agreements.  Having been an NHL regular (when healthy) for the past five years would seemingly give him a leg up but GM Kyle Dubas has already added some extra depth this summer with the likes of Andreas Johnsson, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Rem Pitlick.  One thing is for certain, there is going to be quite a battle for the final few spots with the Penguins and White is the latest to become a part of it.

Pittsburgh Penguins| Transactions Colin White

4 comments

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

September 9, 2023 at 3:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $81,856,921 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brock Faber (two years, $925K)
F Marco Rossi (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Rossi: $850K

Rossi was viewed as a long-term option down the middle when they drafted him ninth overall in 2020 but it hasn’t happened just yet.  His post-draft season saw him battle through a life-threatening heart scare while his first two seasons in Minnesota’s system have been spent primarily in the minors.  He averaged close to a point per game in Iowa so the skills are certainly there.  If he can translate that to the NHL (he struggled in that regard last season), he could be a fixture in their lineup for a long time and as we’ve seen, productive centers can get paid quickly.

Faber joined the Wild late in the season and made an early mark, skating as a regular for them in the playoffs.  He should have a leg up on a roster spot for this year.  However, unless he sees a fair bit of power play time, it seems unlikely that Faber will be in a spot to command a long-term extension and bypass a bridge deal altogether.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Connor Dewar ($800K, RFA)
F Brandon Duhaime ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($800K, UFA)*
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

*-Tampa Bay is retaining an additional $200K on Maroon’s contract

Zuccarello is a rare example of a player becoming more productive the older he gets.  After seeing his output dip at the end of his tenure with the Rangers and hover near that level in his first two years with Minnesota, the 36-year-old has had his two best offensive showings over the past two seasons.  Yes, some of that is attributable to the player lining up on his opposite wing but it would be hard to walk away from entirely who produces that much in the hopes that someone cheaper could produce as much as that same winger.  Independently, a player with Zuccarello’s recent production could make a case for a raise but with his age, that could be tough.  At this point, a one-year deal worth around $5MM could work for both sides with the AAV dropping on a two-year agreement.

Foligno looked to have turned the corner in 2021-22, posting a career year offensively but came up well short of that last season.  If he stays around the 25-30-point mark, he could command a deal similar in size to this one but as teams look to make their bottom six cheaper, he could also feel the squeeze a little bit.  Hartman wasn’t quite able to put the same numbers as his breakout 2021-22 campaign either but produced at better than a 50-point pace which is still a fantastic return on his current contract.  That’s second-line production and a second-line middleman can command more than $5MM per season on the open market.

Duhaime is a capable fourth liner who plays with plenty of physicality and chips in a bit offensively but the market for those players is starting to flat-line.  A small raise isn’t impossible – especially if he can crack the double-digit mark in goals but the AAV should still start with a one.  Maroon comes over from the Lightning to help fill the void created by the departure of Ryan Reaves to Toronto.  He fits on the fourth line but his market value shouldn’t be much higher than his current deal.  As for Dewar, the 24-year-old spent plenty of time on the fourth line as well but plays center and kills penalties, giving him a bit more earnings upside.  A small bump on the 18 points he had last season could give him a shot at coming close to doubling this contract, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Goligoski’s homecoming has been up and down, to say the least.  His first season (2021-22) saw him play an important role and when he signed this deal, it looked like a team-friendly one.  However, he struggled to crack the lineup last season and didn’t play well when he was in.  Now, it’s a deal they’d almost certainly like to move if they could but with his struggles and trade protection, that will be easier said than done and another contract is far from a guarantee.

Fleury’s first full season with Minnesota was decent.  He’s no longer a top starter but his numbers were better than the NHL average and getting that performance for the cost of a good backup is fine.  He turns 39 in November so it’s possible he’s entering his final NHL campaign.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Marcus Johansson ($2MM, UFA)
D Jon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($2.45MM, UFA)

The first time Minnesota acquired Johansson, things didn’t go very well.  He battled injuries and struggled when he was in the lineup.  When GM Bill Guerin brought him back at the trade deadline, it was a different story as he averaged nearly a point per game down the stretch.  That’s unsustainable for him but at this price point, they don’t need that level of production.  If he can hover around the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

Middleton isn’t going to light up the scoresheet but he’s a capable stay-at-home defender who’s best suited for a fourth or fifth role on the depth chart.  That’s basically where he stands with the Wild and if he wants to push himself into a higher salary tier, his production will need to come around.  Otherwise, his market value in 2025 might be around the $3.5MM range.  Merrill is a capable depth piece that gives Minnesota some value when he’s a regular in the lineup but is overpaid when he’s in the reserve role.  If they need to open up some cap space, waiving and assigning him to the minors and calling up a cheaper defender would give them a few hundred thousand to work with.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Filip Gustavsson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM, UFA)

Minnesota wanted a max-term deal for Kaprizov when his entry-level deal was up back in 2021 but the winger wasn’t particularly interested in one so they settled on this one instead, an agreement that bought a little more team control but positioned him to land a significant max-term contract in 2029 if he wants one at that point.  His numbers dipped a bit last season but he still played at a 92-point pace on the heels of a 105-point showing the year before.  A continuation of that level of production coupled with a projected jump in the salary cap between now and then should give Kaprizov a serious chance at pushing for a contract that would break the current record for a winger ($11.643MM).

A year ago, the thought of Gustavsson having this contract would have been shocking.  After all, he failed to establish himself as even a regular backup in Ottawa.  However, he was second in the league in GAA and SV% last season, albeit in just 37 starts.  As a result, this deal is somewhat of a compromise by paying him at the top end for a platoon option which is reflective of the role he might still have this season.  If he becomes a true number one, however, this will be a steal quickly.

Read more

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Matt Boldy ($7MM through 2029-30)
D Jonas Brodin ($6MM through 2027-280
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25MM through 2028-29)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($2.1MM through 2027-28)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575MM through 2026-27)

There aren’t too many players making as much as Boldy that still are waiver-exempt but that’s where things are as he has played just a season and a half worth of games.  However, Guerin feels that he’s part of the long-term plans and if he can become a consistent 30-goal scorer (he had 31 last season), he’ll be a key part of their core for a long time.  Eriksson Ek has turned the corner offensively in recent seasons, going from a checker to a capable two-way threat.  He’s giving them second-line production with strong defensive play at a rate that’s below what a lot of two-way middlemen get.  Gaudreau opted against testing free agency this summer, instead agreeing to this deal back in April.  He has gone from a fringe NHL player to a key secondary piece with the Wild and if he performs anywhere close to the level he has over the past two years, this could be a bargain agreement quickly.

Spurgeon doesn’t fit the typical profile of a number one defenseman but he’s an all-around threat for Minnesota.  They’ve managed his minutes a bit over the last couple of seasons which should continue as he turns 34 in November.  As that continues and his role lessens, this could become a bit of an above-market deal but with how much of a bargain he was previously, they probably won’t be too upset when it happens.  As for Brodin, he’s a high-quality defensive defender but his offensive production hasn’t been strong too often and took a sharp dip last season.  While he’s a very useful player for his role, paying this much (in dollars and term) for a shutdown blueliner is an overpayment in this market.

Buyouts

F Zach Parise ($7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K in 2025-26 through 2028-29)
D Ryan Suter ($7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K in 2025-26 through 2028-29)

We mention the buyouts often when we talk about the Wild but it is a significant part of their roster planning.  Nearly $14.75MM in dead cap space for an entire season (not just pro-rated moves at the trade deadline) is unprecedented (the cost went up $1MM each for this season) and reduces their spending power by 17.7%.  The good news is that these buyouts are only anchors for two more seasons before it becomes much more manageable.

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Calen Addison

Addison was a regular for most of the regular season but had a limited role when he was in the lineup.  In the playoffs, he was scratched for a handful of games.  On the other hand, he had 29 points which is pretty impressive for a young blueliner.  It was reported earlier this summer that they were hoping he’d sign for his qualifying offer of $787.5K or close to that.  Clearly, he doesn’t want to do that but with what they have left for cap room, a one-year deal is their best option.

Best Value: Hartman
Worst Value: Brodin

Looking Ahead

Assuming Addison gets a one-year deal, Minnesota should be able to start the season in cap compliance without much issue.  However, they’ll have a roster that’s well below the maximum of 23 to get there.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rossi and Faber shuffled down at times to bank a bit more cap space; waiving and doing the same with Merrill could help.  Last year, they had a bunch of money banked to use at the deadline but this time, that is unlikely to happen.

Looking to 2024-25, they have $18MM in expiring contracts but with Zuccarello needing a new deal, Hartman heading for a big raise, and the Wild needing a partner in goal for Gustavsson, that money is going to be spent quickly; a core upgrade isn’t likely to happen.  But again, the buyout charges drop sharply for 2025-26 and that will be when Guerin will be in a position to try to make a splash.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minnesota Wild| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

8 comments

East Notes: Dahlin, Necas, Keane

September 9, 2023 at 2:49 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

There has been recent speculation that the Sabres and defenseman Rasmus Dahlin are nearing an agreement on a contract extension.  On the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that there is a bit of work still to be done but that all sides involved think that there is a deal to be done with a belief that it could be done by the opening of training camp.  The 23-year-old is coming off a breakout year that saw him record 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games while averaging just shy of 26 minutes a night.  He has one year left on his current deal at a $6MM cap hit and coming off the year he just had, it seems likely that Dahlin could approach the $10MM mark (if not a bit more) to lock in a max-term eight-year extension now.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:

  • Hurricanes forward Martin Necas is entering the final year of his contract this season and thus is eligible to sign a contract extension. However, he recently told NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti that there have been no discussions yet about a possible new deal.  The 24-year-old took a significant step forward last season, posting career highs across the board with 28 goals, 43 assists, 71 points, 240 shots, and an ATOI of 18:25 per night.  Signed for a $3MM AAV this season, Necas’ next deal could very well double that amount or more if he’s able to have a similar offensive showing in 2023-24.
  • Still with Carolina, prospect defenseman Joey Keane has signed a one-year deal with Spartak of the KHL, per a team announcement. The 24-year-old had a good first season in Russia, picking up 24 points in 64 games last year.  Keane has a pair of NHL games under his belt with the Hurricanes who retain his RFA rights through the 2026-27 campaign.  If he takes a step forward this year, he could play his way back into the mix for a spot in North America.

Buffalo Sabres| Carolina Hurricanes| KHL Martin Necas| Rasmus Dahlin

1 comment

Lightning Sign Tyler Motte To A One-Year Deal

September 9, 2023 at 1:09 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

Just minutes after announcing that they’re parting ways with winger Josh Archibald, the Lightning have found his replacement as they announced the signing of winger Tyler Motte to a one-year, $800K contract.

The 28-year-old split last season between the Senators and Rangers and had a decent showing offensively with eight goals and 11 assists between the two teams; his assist and point totals were both career-bests.  Of course, Motte isn’t known for his production but rather for being a gritty winger who can play all three forward positions in a pinch (though his time at center has been quite limited throughout his career) and kill penalties.  Motte has played for five different teams over a seven-year NHL career, collecting 43 goals and 38 assists in 331 games so far.

This is the second summer in a row that he has had to wait until just before training camps got underway to land a new contract.  Last year, he signed with Ottawa back on September 14th but still landed himself a raise in the process, receiving a $1.35MM agreement.  Now, Motte’s price tag will be the lowest of his career although he’ll head into training camp with a guaranteed deal, something not too many unrestricted free agents have been able to land in recent weeks.  CHEK TV’s Rick Dhaliwal reports (Twitter link) that Motte’s asking price was much higher earlier this summer and that he had changed agents recently in the hopes of finding a deal to his liking; clearly, this was the fall-back option.

Motte will fill the role that Archibald was originally expected to fill following the trade of Pat Maroon to Minnesota.  That should see him taking a regular shift on Tampa Bay’s fourth line while seeing some secondary minutes on the penalty kill as well although his track record suggests he’s better suited to move up onto the third line if injuries arise.  It’s an odd turn of events with Archibald opting to step away but with Motte, GM Julien BriseBois has filled that spot rather well despite the minimal notice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tampa Bay Lightning| Transactions Tyler Motte

6 comments

Alex Edler Not Looking To Retire Yet

September 9, 2023 at 11:42 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 11 Comments

Veteran defenseman Alex Edler has had a long and successful career as a capable shutdown blueliner.  However, at 37, he’s coming off a year that saw him in a very limited role so some had wondered if his playing days were coming to an end.  While he doesn’t have a contract or tryout yet, that doesn’t appear to be Edler’s plan as Jeff Paterson of The Hockey News reports (Twitter link) that the rearguard is hoping to play in 2023-24.

Edler spent the bulk of his 17-year NHL career with Vancouver and had a 14-year stretch that saw him average a minimum of 20 minutes per night while recording at least 20 points in 13 of those.  Not too many blueliners have that type of longevity.  However, after an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign, the Canucks opted to move on.

He quickly landed with Los Angeles for the 2021-22 campaign, inking a deal worth up to $3.5MM with bonuses.  While Edler played well in limited action (he spent nearly three months on LTIR), he opted to forego testing the market last summer, instead signing for the league minimum with another $750K in potential bonuses, a deal that gave the Kings some extra flexibility to work with.

Unfortunately for Edler, last season wasn’t particularly strong.  While he stayed healthy, he found himself a frequent scratch and when he did suit up, his ice time was limited to just 14:46 per game, by far his lowest ATOI since his rookie campaign back in 2006-07.  Edler saw a bit of playoff action but his ice time was capped even lower.  Basically, his performance last year wasn’t strong enough to command a guaranteed contract through the first two-plus months of free agency.

At this point of his career, Edler is likely to be relegated to the type of role he had last season as a sixth or seventh option who isn’t an every-game player.  Those players still have their uses but it would need to be on a team-friendly contract that is at or near the minimum without bonuses.  In the meantime, not too many of those deals are handed out at this point of the summer so if Edler wants to extend his career to an 18th NHL campaign, he may have to go the PTO route to do so.

Free Agency Alex Edler

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