Examining The Penguins’ Options For Erik Karlsson

Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff speculated on a potential Pittsburgh Penguins trade for defenseman Erik Karlsson. The hypothetical trade involved the Toronto Maple Leafs. It was all speculation and fodder, but it made for an interesting conversation about a player who will likely find a new team this summer. Karlsson has two years remaining on his contract with an AAV of $10MM, and at 34 years of age, he will not be easy to move despite being a three-time Norris Trophy winner. Karlsson’s best years are behind him, but he remains a gifted skater and playmaker who struggles on the defensive side of the game. Given Karlsson’s unique skillset, it’s fair to wonder what the Penguins’ options are for him if they do indeed plan to move him.

Seravalli’s conversation led to him discussing a one-for-one trade between Toronto and Pittsburgh that would see Karlsson and Morgan Rielly swap teams. Now, a trade like that is highly unlikely to happen, given that Reilly has a no-move clause and isn’t likely to go to a team in Pittsburgh’s position. Also, from Pittsburgh’s perspective, they probably wouldn’t have an interest in Reilly despite general manager Kyle Dubas’ previous ties to Toronto.

All of that to say, is there a realistic one-for-one trade out there for the Pittsburgh Penguins to move Erik Karlsson? The answer is probably no; although it’s not impossible, it’s hard to find an option around the league in which Pittsburgh could flip Karlsson for a single piece and to be perfectly honest, the Penguins likely don’t want to do that. Any Karlsson trade that involves roster pieces will likely mean that overpaid veterans are coming back to Pittsburgh as part of the deal, along with futures, or the Penguins are swallowing a significant chunk of Karlsson’s cap hit and receiving back a good young roster player and maybe one or two extra pieces. A trade like that could look similar to the Seth Jones trade to Florida. So, what would some potential trades look like?

A good framework for the first option would be with the Detroit Red Wings. Detroit has several undesirable contracts on its books and could put together a package that mirrors the one the Penguins used to acquire Karlsson in the first place (albeit one of lesser quality). Detroit would probably love to move on from Justin Holl and perhaps Vladimir Tarasenko, and would free up roughly $8.15MM by doing so. If they were included in the swap, the Penguins would only need to eat those deals for one year and could clear Karlsson’s entire cap hit. Now, in a trade like that, the Penguins would likely need to be rewarded with additional assets, but it’s not an impossible framework for the two sides to work under.

Using the retained salary framework, Pittsburgh could keep in the range of $3MM on Karlsson’s AAV, which would get him down to $7MM in each of the final two years of his contract. That number is much more appealing and could likely yield the Penguins a couple of future assets, possibly even a young roster player. If the Penguins went closer to a 50% retention, they could cash in, but they probably don’t want to do that, given that they reportedly view the summer of 2026 as their time to make moves to contend (as per Josh Yohe of The Athletic).

So, what could the Penguins fetch with Karlsson at $7MM? Again, using Detroit as a framework, as well as the recent Seth Jones trade, Pittsburgh could likely acquire a young roster player and a draft pick that would likely be a second or third-round pick. Penguins fans might jump at the idea of obtaining a forward like Marco Kasper in the trade, but that seems lofty for Karlsson, and Detroit would likely scoff at the notion. The 15th overall pick in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, forward Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, could be an option, but he would probably be the only piece coming back to Pittsburgh in a trade like that.

The last option for the Penguins, and the one that Seravalli is hinting at, is a good old-fashioned hockey trade that isn’t a one-for-one. The complicated nature of Karlsson’s contract, mixed with his age and unique skillset, makes him hard to trade under any circumstances, particularly in a hockey trade. But nothing is impossible, and Dubas is about as creative as they come and has targeted young players who haven’t lived up to their perceived potential. Enter the Carolina Hurricanes and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Now, I won’t be the first person to float the idea of a Kotkaniemi to Pittsburgh trade for Karlsson, as Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now did so in March. The idea seemed unlikely at the time, but given the new ecosystem teams are in with the cap going up, it’s not a crazy idea. Carolina might lose Brent Burns in free agency, and has had a hard time keeping offensive players in Carolina for various reasons. Perhaps Karlsson could help ignite the offense and could play a more structured game in Carolina’s disciplined system.

On the flip side, the Penguins could roll the dice on Kotkaniemi, who is just 24 but is significantly overpaid at $4.82MM annually. Kotkaniemi has five years left on his deal and could use a fresh start in a new system. He might get one after he was a healthy scratch in the playoffs and took a disastrous penalty in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against Florida. Kotkaniemi likely has more to give and could perhaps be given more of an offensive role on a Penguins team that simply doesn’t have the same depth as the Hurricanes.

In that scenario, both teams would be taking a massive gamble, but it might make sense, given the current state of each team. Pittsburgh gets to take a chance on a younger player who has fallen below expectations, and the Hurricanes get a veteran that might be able to add to their offense as they try to get over the hump in the Eastern Conference. Weirder things have happened, but the Penguins have plenty of options for trading Karlsson and given all that has gone on in his two years in Pittsburgh, they probably should move him as they continue to embark on reshaping their roster.

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