The Maple Leafs Can Keep Their Contention Window Open

It’s too early for most Toronto Maple Leafs fans to speculate on what to do this summer to get this team to the next level. Fans are understandably emotional right now due to another playoff disappointment in a long line of playoff disappointments, and many have called for a complete levelling of the personnel from management down to the players. And while very few pieces on the team have performed up to expectations, it’s unrealistic to expect a complete teardown. So, what should the Maple Leafs do this summer?

First, it’s essential to understand the current state of Maple Leafs management. President of hockey operations Brendan Shanahan has no contract for next season, and it sure doesn’t seem like he will get one with Toronto. Not after the complete collapse of this Maple Leafs team that just could never win when it mattered the most. Shanahan came into Toronto and unveiled the Shanaplan, which was objectively a failure as the Maple Leafs never made it out of the second round and lost every Game 7 they ever played in under his watch. Regardless of the results, Shanahan never wavered from his plan, even when it became apparent that he needed to pivot. Ultimately, he remained steadfast, and it likely cost him his job, or at the very least, it should have.

That should be the first significant domino to fall, and it will be another major shakeup in Toronto after they let general manager Kyle Dubas walk two years ago and sent former head coach Sheldon Keefe packing last summer. But that can’t be it, Toronto can’t just march in another president of hockey operations and call it a summer; they need real change on the ice, palpable, brutal, change that shakes the makeup of their hockey team. It cannot be tinkering around the edges like the team has done in the summers past.

Toronto needs to let Mitch Marner walk; unfortunately, he will set sail for nothing in return. Toronto will gain significant cap space, and how they use it will be imperative to their future success. During his nine years in the NHL, Marner was an incredible point producer in Toronto, producing 221 goals and 520 assists in 657 career NHL games. The 28-year-old was also solid defensively and killed penalties, averaging 92 points per 82 games. But his playoff numbers were abysmal by his standards, tallying just 13 goals and 50 assists in 70 career playoff games. Marner went quiet when it mattered most, and he was never a game breaker for Toronto when the stakes were at their highest. Toronto can no longer afford to pay top dollar for a winger who disappears at inopportune times, no matter how effective he is in the regular season. Marner will surely command a lot of money in free agency, and he may go on to eventually win a Stanley Cup, but his time in Toronto ran its course, and running it back with him would be hazardous for both him and the Maple Leafs.

Toronto must also decide how badly it wants to keep John Tavares in the fold. The 34-year-old is at the tail end of his career and remains a solid point producer, but he is not the fleetest of foot, and his underlying numbers this season were some of the worst of his career. Tavares had 38 goals and 36 assists in 75 games this year, but couldn’t replicate his offensive pace in the playoffs despite some timely scoring. Tavares could still chase significant money in free agency, but the Maple Leafs should avoid paying market value to a player who has posted just 31 points in 51 playoff games with Toronto. If Tavares wants to remain close to home in Toronto, the Maple Leafs should play hardball and try to finally have one of the members of the core four sign a contract that is significantly under market value. If Tavares isn’t interested in offering a discount, Toronto should use those savings elsewhere and try to bring in another free agent to give the forward group a fresh look.

Beyond that, the Maple Leafs should let their remaining UFAs go and lock up Matthew Knies to a long-term extension. If Toronto opts to sign Knies long term AFP Analytics projects his deal to be in the neighborhood of $7.22MM per season long term, which would leave the Maple Leafs with 17 players signed for next season and $17.6MM in available cap space (if Matt Benning and Ryan Reaves are buried in the AHL once again). That lack of wiggle room makes it impossible for Toronto to bring back Marner and Tavares, even if they wanted to (Marner is projected to receive $12.95MM annually, while Tavares is at $7.94MM annually). Still, they should consider other options unless Tavares takes about half that projection.

So, what can Toronto do to fill out those final six roster spots? Well, the short answer is not a lot, at least not on the trade market, since they don’t have a first-round pick until 2028 and lack impact prospects outside Easton Cowan, Topi Niemela, and Ben Danford. The Maple Leafs have two choices: sign players through free agency or make hockey trades using roster players. Regarding where the changes might occur, the likeliest changes will occur upfront, where the Maple Leafs have seven forwards under contract, not including the aforementioned Knies. On the backend, Toronto’s entire defense is locked up for next year, as are both goaltenders.

The good news for the Maple Leafs is that the defense and goaltending free agent markets are weak, while the forward UFAs are stronger. This could open up the Maple Leafs to move out a defenseman for a reasonable return and to acquire salary cap room to sign a forward. Oliver Ekman-Larsson played reasonably well this season and has a 16-team no-trade clause, so he could certainly be dealt, but a move like that would put added pressure on the bottom defensive pairing, which they might not want to do.

The Maple Leafs have some contracts up front that they would no doubt love to rid themselves of. The final year of Calle Järnkrok’s contract could probably be moved with a late-round sweetener, and perhaps that is something Toronto will explore to give itself an extra $2.1MM in cap space for next year. Another option would be to try to move Max Domi and his $3.75MM cap hit, but with three years on that deal, it might be something Toronto has to hold onto. Domi wasn’t terrible last season but was miscast in the bottom six and struggled in the playoffs at times, despite having seven points in 13 games.

All the options in Toronto create many moving parts, but the Maple Leafs have to be careful not to change for the sake of change. They must be strategic about shuffling the deckchairs and targeting players who can insulate their remaining stars. So, who should Toronto target to bring into the fold?

Florida center Sam Bennett would be a top target, particularly if Tavares moves on. Bennett is a true warrior who is battle-tested and still reasonably young at 28. He gave the Maple Leafs a front row seat to see what he could do and would give Toronto an element of skill and sandpaper that had been missing during their past decade of struggle. Bennett is from Holland Landing, Ontario, which is a little less than an hour North of Toronto and may welcome a return to home, but cost could certainly become an issue as he will be one of the most sought-after free agents. AFP Analytics projects Bennett to receive a six-year deal for $6.64MM annually, which could become problematic in a few seasons given his style of play, but it would be a price worth paying if he plays at his current level for even half of the deal.

Speaking of Florida Panthers forwards, Brad Marchand should be a target simply so he can stop torching the Maple Leafs in the playoffs annually. Marchand is no longer a top-end forward, but he has proved his worth in these playoffs, particularly against Toronto. Marchand is projected to sign a two-year deal worth just north of $5MM per season, which would be a very reasonable ask given his resume and ability to get better as the games get bigger. Toronto desperately needs the intangibles that a Marchand-type player can provide, and his personality would probably thrive in a big market such as Toronto.

An off-the-board target that wouldn’t provide a massive impact but could be an under-the-radar signing is two-time Stanley Cup Champion Brandon Saad. The 32-year-old can still produce at a 40-point clip and remains a decent skater who can play off the rush. Saad still does well to get to the net, and he can cause issues for opposing goaltenders, using his hands in tight to provide offense. Toronto doesn’t have much of what Saad offers, and he isn’t likely to cost much more than $2MM on a one- or two-year deal. Saad also has considerable big-game experience, which the Maple Leafs lack, and like Marchand, could provide some veteran leadership to help Toronto’s stars in those uncertain big-game situations.

Change is necessary in Toronto this offseason, as the team can no longer tinker around the edges of the roster. Big moves need to be made, and the Maple Leafs will likely need to replace one or two of the core four by committee rather than with one player. It’s a difficult task, but not impossible, as Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane once said in the film Moneyball, “Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.” While Billy Beane is discussing replacing one of the best hitters in baseball, the Maple Leafs might be tasked with replacing one of the best offensive producers in the NHL, and given the constraints in place, they will need to do it by committee. It’s a tall task, but as Beane showed back over two decades ago, it’s not an impossible one.

Photos by Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images and Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports