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Evening Notes: Saros, CapFriendly, Dillon

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Star Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saros has been deeply entrenched in trade rumors for much of the season, largely thanks to the emergence of top goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov in the minor leagues. But the two sides might not be set for the departure many are expecting, with Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman sharing that, “the player wants to stay and the team wants him to say,” in the latest episode of the 32 Thoughts Podcast. Friedman added that a source close to the team has expressed optimism in Nashville’s chances of extending Saros.

Saros has one year remaining on the four-year, $20MM contract he earned following a breakout 2020-21 season. Manning the net in the last year of Pekka Rinne’s career, Saros posted 21 wins and a .927 save percentage through just 36 appearances. Saros has fully taken the reigns from Rinne on his new deal, recording at least 64 games in each of the three seasons he’s played on the deal so far. He’s posted a combined 106 wins and .915 save percentage in 195 games since 2021. Saros has remained an unquestioned starter in Nashville, even as he posted a career-worst .906 save percentage and 2.86 goals-against-average in 64 games this season.

But despite the strong stats, Nashville has shared they’re not in a rush to re-sign the former Vezina Trophy finalist. Instead, they’ll monitor how the goalie market develops under a growing cap, specifically watching for how extension talks between the New York Rangers and Igor Shesterkin play out. That patient approach should give time for trade candidates like Jacob Markstrom, John Gibson, and Linus Ullmark to be moved as well, giving the Predators a sense of what a return for Saros may look like.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The Washington Capitals have moved to purchase the website CapFriendly, per Friedman. CapFriendly has become a central repository for information on NHL player and staff contracts, fantasy hockey tools, and lineup information among many other uses. The move will give Washington full access to CapFriendly’s extensive toolkit, though it will also force the site to publicly shut down on July 5th – keeping it active through the NHL Draft and beginning of free agency. Friedman shared that other NHL teams who had access to CapFriendly’s data were recently told their contracts would be termminated, suggesting a buyout was imminent.
  • Winnipeg Jets defenseman Brenden Dillon is expected to test free agency, shares Friedman in 32 Thoughts. Dillon concluded his third year with the Jets this season, joining the team via trade in 2021 – with Winnipeg sending the Washington Capitals the draft picks used to select Seamus Casey and Carson Rehkopf, though neither player was drafted by Washington. Dillon, 33, will be looking for a new home after recording 63 points across 238 games with the Jets.

Blues Sign Mathias Laferriere To One-Year, Two-Way Extension

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The St. Louis Blues have signed depth forward Mathias Laferriere to a one-year, two-way contract extension. The deal will carry a league-minimum $775K cap hit. Laferriere was set to become a restricted free agent on July 1st, following the end of his three-year entry-level contract signed in 2019.

Laferriere took a bit of a lateral step this season, posting seven goals and 25 points in 68 games with the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds. His scoring came one point shy of his career-high posted in 18 fewer games last season. It’s been a slow start to the 23-year-old’s pro career, totaling just 60 points across his first 174 games in the AHL. Laferriere originally joined the Blues through the sixth round of the 2018 NHL Draft, amidst a QMJHL career that stretched across 238 games. He proceeded his draft selection with a career-high 28 goals and 74 points in 68 games with the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, though it’d mark his only time breaking the 50-point mark across his five seasons in the league.

Despite the measly regular season scoring, Laferriere showed an impressive ability to show up when it mattered during his juniors career – posting 19 points across the last 20 playoff games of his CHL career. The intangibles that earned him those postseason points are now earning him a serviceable role with the Springfield Thunderbirds. But on a one-year deal, his focus next season will be much more on maintaining that role than it will be rivaling the Blues lineup. Still, an NHL contract will make him eligible for a call-up should St. Louis need the depth. That will put him in competition with players like Zachary Bolduc, Zach Dean, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Juraj Pekarcik for St. Louis’ fringe lineup roles.

Latest On Jacob Markstrom

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The Calgary Flames are trying to move former Vezina Trophy runner-up Jacob Markstrom as discretely as possible, shares Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 32 Thoughts podcast. Friedman adds that the team was aware of the theatrics brought on by Markstrom’s trade rumors earlier this season. Markstrom publicly expressed his frustration with the team over his pre-Deadline speculation, amidst rumors of a pending move to the New Jersey Devils being reversed after Calgary went 9-3-0 throughout February. Markstrom posted a .928 save percentage while appearing in 10 games during the hot streak. He’d go on to post a measly .869 save percentage in 10 games following the strong stretch, floundering on a Flames lineup that went on to miss the postseason by 17 points.

The second half of season felt like an encapsulation of Markstrom’s play over the last few years – with dramatically up-and-down stretches culminating in a modest stat line. He posted 23 wins and a .905 save percentage in 48 games this year – finding the same number of wins and a stronger save percentage than he did last season, despite playing in 11 fewer games.

Markstrom has been a no-doubt starter for much of the last eight seasons, after joining the Vancouver Canucks in 2014 in the trade that sent Roberto Luongo to the Florida Panthers. Markstrom would make his first stand as a full-fledged starter in the 2017-18 season, posting 23 wins and a .912 save percentage in 60 appearances with Vancouver. He’s played in 40 or more games in every season since, totaling a .910 save percentage in 376 games. And while last season’s sub-.900 save percentage – and a tally this year that came close –  have caused some to pause, it’s hard to think Markstrom isn’t bound for the lion’s share of games with whoever he may suit up for next season.

That could be the New Jersey Devils, who have Markstrom as one of their top trade targets this summer, but Friedman notes they’re not the only teams involved. Friedman specifically named the Toronto Maple Leafs as a strong candidate for trade, largely thanks to Toronto now being manned by Brad Treliving, the general manager who signed Markstrom to the six-year, $36MM contract he’s currently on with the Flames. The price of a Markstrom trade could quickly test Toronto’s budget – especially as they approach a summer with just $18.83MM in cap space and 12 pending free agents. The Leafs are also woefully juxtaposed by a Devils team willing to move the 10th-overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft for lineup improvements. That offer could be tantalizing for a Calgary team looking for a breadth of young talent. At the very least, it’s an exciting bar in a goalie market that, per Friedman, has plenty of invested teams.

Marco Sturm “Deep In the Process” Of Becoming Sharks Head Coach

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According to a report from Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now a few days ago, the San Jose Sharks were believed to be closing in on Ryan Warsofsky as their next head coach. However, Max Miller of The Hockey News reports that Marco Sturm is also thought to be deep in the interview process, which has been delaying the eventual announcement of the new bench boss.

At the very least, despite numerous candidates being rumored for the role, Sturm and Warsofsky are separating themselves from the pack. Jeff Blashill is the only other candidate confirmed to have gotten a second interview but it is believed that his chances of becoming the next head coach in San Jose have dropped significantly.

The hiring of Sturm would represent a homecoming of sorts, as he started his professional career as a player with the Sharks organization back in 1997-98 after being signed out of the Deutsche Eishockey Liga. Sturm spent nearly eight years in San Jose before he was traded to the Boston Bruins in exchange for the eventual Hart Memorial Trophy winner of the 2005-06 season, Joe Thornton.

After his playing career ended after the 2011-12 NHL season, Sturm bounced around as a head coach at the international level for Team Germany, coaching the country’s World Junior Championship team, World Championship team, and Deutschland Cup team, among others. It wasn’t until the 2018-19 season that Sturm returned to the NHL as an assistant coach for the Los Angeles Kings. Sturm would spend four years in that role before finally becoming the head coach of the organization’s AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign, a position which he still holds.

Sturm has coached the Reign to a 76-55-8-5 record over the last two years and has coached the team as far as the Second Round of the Calder Cup playoffs. If the Sharks hire Sturm as the organization’s next head coach, it would be the highest role Sturm has achieved at the professional level as a coach.

Nevertheless, no decision has been made up to this point, and Warsofsky still has a legitimate chance of being the team’s next head coach. Having plenty of experience with the organization, Warsofsky has spent the last two years as an assistant coach for the Sharks and almost became the head coach before San Jose ultimately chose David Quinn.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Senators.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Shane Pinto – After a contract holdout over the summer and a 41-game suspension from the NHL for violating the league’s gambling policies, Pinto settled for a one-year, $775K contract with the Senators when everything was said and done. Pinto rewarded Ottawa’s loyalty, proving that his 2022-23 NHL season was not a fluke. In 41 games, Pinto scored nine goals and 27 points, finishing 11th on the team in scoring despite playing in half as many games as his peers. The Senators organization has much more financial flexibility, unlike last year. Infamously, the Senators former front office signed free agent Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5MM contract, eliminating any room to retain Pinto. As a legitimate top-six forward, Ottawa should be able to give Pinto a four- to five-year deal between $4MM-$5MM annually this summer.

D Erik Brannstrom – As the headlining prospect in the deal that landed Mark Stone with the Vegas Golden Knights, Brannstrom had high expectations attached to him in the Senators organization. At the AHL level with the Chicago Wolves and the Belleville Senators, Brannstrom showed flashes of being a top-four puck-moving defensive prospect. Unfortunately, Brannstrom has been able to sustain any offensive production at the NHL level, topping out with 20 points achieved this past year. A few days ago, it had been reported that Ottawa is undecided about issuing Brannstrom a qualifying offer this offseason, which would allow the young defenseman to sign with any team in the league.

Other RFAs:  F Parker Kelly, F Boris Katchouk, F Angus Crookshank, D Lassi Thomson, G Kevin Mandolese, G Mads Sogaard

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Dominik Kubalik – Included in the return package in the trade that sent Alex DeBrincat to the Detroit Red Wings, Kubalik primarily served as a middle-six scoring option for the Senators this season. Kubalik finished the 2023-24 NHL season with 11 goals and four assists in 74 games while posting some of his career-worst defensive and possession metrics. Now that Ottawa has some flexibility to improve upon Kubalik in the middle-six of their forward core, he will most likely head for a different organization this summer. Kubalik could look for an open role with any of the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, or Chicago Blackhawks organizations — as each will be scouring the market for any goal-scoring talent they can find.

Other UFAs: F Rourke Chartier, F Josh Currie, F Matthew Highmore, F Bokondji Imama, F Jiri Smejkal, D Dillon Heatherington

Projected Cap Space

Now that the upper limit of the 2024-25 NHL salary has officially been set at $88MM, we now have a clear picture of what each team will be working with this summer. The Senators organization owns just under $12.5MM in cap space this summer without any relatively pricey restricted or unrestricted free agents to worry about.

With this being the first offseason for Steve Staios at the helm of Ottawa’s front office, he should have the flexibility to bring in two to three NHL-caliber talents to round out the team’s depth. Furthermore, if Staios can move out the contracts of Jakob Chychrun or Mathieu Joseph before free agency opens up on July 1st, the Senators could acquire a top-level goaltender for the organization via trade.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Evening Notes: Bowman, Quenneville, LTIR, Levshunov

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Touching on a variety of topics before the start of the Stanley Cup Final, Commissioner Gary Bettman spoke directly about the futures of executive Stan Bowman and head coach Joel Quenneville. With both rumored to be speaking reinstatement into the NHL, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports that neither will be back in the league next season.

Around this time last season, at the same press conference, Bettman confirmed that both were seeking individual appointments to consider reinstatement. As things would turn out, neither has returned to the NHL and may never be awarded reinstatement while Bettman is Commissioner.

Both Qunneville and Bowman resigned from their previous positions in 2021 after both were found partly responsible for “inadequate internal procedures and insufficient and untimely response in the handling of matters related to former video coach Brad Aldrich’s employment” according to the league’s investigation of the sexual assault allegations made by former-player Kyle Beach during the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs. Despite rumored interest around the league over the last two years, it appears both will have to continue and wait for Bettman to consider reinstatement.

Other notes:

  •  According to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, Deputy Commissioner of the NHL, Bill Daly, has begun taking calls from numerous General Managers across the league regarding LTIR usage around the salary cap in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Unlikely to be resolved before the end of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and the NHLPA, it is most likely an issue that will be debated over the next rendition of the CBA. Over the last several years, teams such as the Chicago Blackhawks, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Vegas Golden Knights have allegedly kept players “hidden” on LTIR throughout the regular season, only to be activated for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs to avoid the need for salary cap compliance.
  • Even if the Blackhawks take Artyom Levshunov with the second-overall selection in the 2024 NHL Draft according to their reported interest, he may not be playing for them next season. In an interview between Levshunov and Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Sports Chicago, Levshunov is undecided about playing in the NHL next or returning to Michigan State University for his sophomore season. If selected by Chicago, it is more than likely that Levshunov would have direct access to top-level minutes, which could be enticing for the 18-year-old Belarusian. However, if Levshunov slips to third overall and winds up in Anaheim, a loaded defensive pipeline may make Levshunov reconsider and push his rookie campaign a year or two down the road.

How Will The Blues Manage Their No-Trade Clauses?

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Even before the 2023-24 NHL season, the St. Louis Blues held slim hopes of cracking one of the top three spots in the NHL’s Central Division. The team was only a year removed from finishing 37-38-11, falling to sixth place in the division, and trading off the likes of Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly during that year’s trade deadline season.

Aside from moving out veteran rentals, the General Manager of the organization, Doug Armstrong, became adamant about shaking up the team’s defensive core last summer. In one of the biggest trades to not happen, the Blues had a deal in place to send struggling defenseman Torey Krug and his bloated contract to the Philadelphia Flyers. As things would turn out, Krug ultimately used the no-trade protection given to him in his current deal to block his inclusion in the trade, leading to a much smaller deal of Kevin Hayes being acquired for a sixth-round draft selection.

While largely bringing back the same defensive core into the 2023-24 season, the Blues performed much better but would end up on the outside looking in. As the best team to not make it into the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs, St. Louis finished fifth in the Central Division with a 43-33-6 record. Although Jordan Binnington put together a solid year, the Blues’ downfall would again be their defensive core and lackluster play.

Heading into the summer, St. Louis will once again be looking to shake up their defensive core, which will require superb innovation from Armstrong. Krug, Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy have full no-trade clauses built into their contracts until next summer, meaning Armstrong will need their full cooperation for any trade moving them out of the organization. However, even if Armstrong could convince one of the players to waive their protection, the return value would likely be subpar at best.

If one is not moved this offseason, the quartet will account for just under 27% of the Blues’ total cap space next season. Armstrong could look to move one in a classic hockey trade to address other organizational needs, or strictly go the route of a cost-saving technique. Leddy should represent the most likely to move out of the four given that his contract will end after the 2025-26 NHL season with a manageable $4MM AAV for the remaining years.

Approaching his 15th season in the NHL, Leddy just turned 33 years old and has continued to be a reliable puck-mover from the back end. Throughout the regular season, Leddy played in all 82 games for St. Louis and scored three goals while putting up 25 assists, 23 of which were at even strength. If Armstrong can convince the Eden Prairie, MN native to waive his no-trade protection this offseason, moving out Leddy would allow the Blues to save valuable cap space and open a spot for Scott Perunovich in the top four of the defensive core.

Boston, Montreal To Host 2025 4 Nations Face-Off

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The NHL has announced that the inaugural 2025 4 Nations Face-Off – a best-on-best tournament featuring Canada, America, Sweden, and Finland – will be hosted in Boston’s TD Garden and Montreal’s Bell Centre (Twitter link). The festivities will include a rivalry day on Saturday, February 15 – with Team Finland and Team Sweden squaring off in the afternoon and Team USA set to face Team Canada that evening. The tournament will kick off in Montreal on February 12th, while Boston will host the tournament’s championship game on February 20th.

The 2025 4 Nations Face-Off was announced at the 2024 NHL All-Star Game and is intended to serve as a preparatory tournament to the 2026 Winter Olympics and will take place in place of an All-Star Weekend. The tournament will take place on NHL-sized rinks and follow NHL rules. The league also shared its intention to host the 2028 and 2032 World Cups of Hockey – a pre-season tournament that hasn’t been hosted since 2016, when it famously featured Team North America – a team comprised solely of U23 players from the USA and Canada.

While the addition of more international best-on-best tournaments is something fans have clamored for, the increase isn’t coming without controversy. Team Czechia is a notable exclusion from the 4 Nations lineup, after winning the 2024 World Championship. The four countries featured are four of the five most-represented nations in the NHL, joined by Russia, which is excluded from all IIHF competitions.

The early pieces of the 4 Nations tournament are coming into view, with Team USA already naming Mike Sullivan for 4 Nations and the 2026 Olympics. His appointment was made by Team USA general manager Bill Guerin, who is presiding over both events. Guerin is supported by other NHL GMs Chris Drury, Tom Fitzgerald, and Bill Zito as his assistants, and Chris Kelleher as ’Director of Player Personnel’. Team Canada has also named its management staff, announcing that Don Sweeney will serve as GM, with Jim Nill as his associate GM. Fans can expect to see rosters come together soon as well, per TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie, who shares that the first six players of all four rosters will be announced during the NHL Draft’s first round on June 28 (Twitter link).

NHL Announces Salary Cap For 2024-25 Season

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The NHL and NHLPA have announced the Team Payroll Range for the 2024-25 season. The salary cap upper limit has been set at $88MM, with a midpoint of $76.5MM and a lower limit of $65.0MM. This marks a $4.5MM increase in the upper limit for the 2023-24 season – tied for the highest single-season increase of all time – and a $6.5MM increase from the cap in 2019 and 2020. The upper limit also exceeds CapFriendly’s projected upper limit of $87.7MM – a projection mentioned at October’s NHL Board of Governors meeting. CapFriendly continues to project a $92MM salary cap next season – a mark that continues through the 2020s. The minimum salary is expected to remain at $775K, after growing from $750K ahead of this season.

The NHL incurred $1.5B in escrow debt after pausing the 2019-20 season due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The league has been paying off that debt ever since, with NHL commissioner Gary Bettman sharing it was down to $50M at the start of the season. This big step forward in salary cap suggests the league has fully paid off that debt, something Bettman hinted towards in the pre-season Board of Governors meeting. Bettman added in that meeting, “The game is in great shape. Our franchises have never been better owned or stronger, and we’re excited to have the start of another season upon us.” 

The NHL is showing that a healthy league leads to innovation, set to welcome a team in Utah for the first time next season. Utah will boast the most cap space in the league, with a hardy $43.5MM to spend. They’re succeeded by the San Jose Sharks ($37.5MM in cap space) and Chicago Blackhawks ($34.1MM in cap space), per CapFriendly.

2024 NHL Draft Combine Results

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The NHL Draft combine is back in full swing after a two-year break due to Covid-19 in 2020 and 2021. A full 100 players were invited to the event this year, six fewer than in 2023 but 15 more than in 2022. The festivities include team interviews earlier in the week and physical testing on Saturday. Here are the results of a select few tests, thanks to NHL Central Scouting.

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