Archives for December 2022

Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’ll be taking a regular look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Six Big Hype Prospects

Ruslan Iskhakov, C, New York Islanders (Bridgeport, AHL)
25GP 8G 12A 20pts

When the Islanders drafted Iskhakov 43rd overall at the 2018 NHL draft, they likely did so with the idea that he would be a long-term project. Iskhakov, who is perhaps generously listed as five-foot-nine, was committed to play at the University of Connecticut immediately after the draft. While Iskhakov is inarguably a player with lots of talent, he also, immediately after being selected, faced a long road to becoming a legitimate consideration for the Islanders’ NHL roster.

Iskhakov’s collegiate career started off scarily, as he was flattened by a massive hit in one of his first games as a Husky and needed to be stretchered off the ice. That scary hit led to questions about whether Iskhakov, a Moscow native who had developed prior to that point in Russia and Slovakia, would be able to weather the physicality and oftentimes suffocating lack of space on the smaller North American ice surfaces.

Those questions remained as Iskhakov left UConn to play professionally in both the Finnish Liiga, for TPS Turku, and in the German DEL for Adler Mannheim. But since Iskhakov thrived as a pro in Europe, scoring 38 points in 58 games for Turku and 22 in 25 for Mannheim, he made the decision to return to North America and sign with the Islanders organization.

This was the major test of Iskhakov’s status as a prospect, as whether he could handle the grind that is an AHL season would determine whether he could be considered a legitimate threat to eventually make an NHL roster. At 22 years old, the long runway Iskhakov had been afforded when he was drafted was beginning to shorten.

There were some observers who pointed to Iskhakov’s size profile and believed that Iskhakov’s success in Europe wouldn’t translate to the AHL or NHL. So far, though, Iskhakov’s play has quieted those doubters. He’s currently third on the Bridgeport Islanders in scoring with 20 points in 25 games, his production only behind two seasoned veterans in Andy Andreoff and Chris Terry.

While Iskhakov remains an undersized player, he has a level of shiftiness and stealth to his game that wasn’t present when he was younger. He’s acutely aware of his physical limitations and just how dangerous the game can be because of them, and as a result, he doesn’t make it easy for defenders to simply shut him down with physicality.

While the AHL is still a ways away from how difficult the NHL can be, Iskhakov’s play so far this year in the AHL has definitely advanced his standing in the Islanders’ relatively thin prospect system, and he has made his chances of getting into NHL games far less remote than they once could have been.

Aku Raty, RW, Arizona Coyotes (Ilves Tampere, Liiga)
26GP 9G 12A 21pts

While Raty didn’t enter his draft cycle with nearly as much fanfare as his younger brother, Islanders prospect Aatu Raty, he is making a name for himself with his strong play three seasons after he was selected. The Coyotes nabbed Raty in the fifth round of the 2019 draft, 151st overall out of Karpat’s junior team.

We are now three draft classes separated from that year and are getting to the point where it’s “put up or shut up” time for many prospects. There are entry-level contracts on the line, and these past two years have gone a long way in separating the wheat from the chaff among the players who populated the 2019 draft.

Just last season, it seemed that Raty might not have done enough to earn a deal from Arizona. The team’s exclusive rights to sign him expire on June 1st, 2023, and while Raty’s third season in Liiga was an improvement (he scored 22 points in 56 games) the Coyotes did not add him to their organization perhaps preferring to get another year to evaluate his progress overseas.

So far this year, Raty has made the prospect of letting his rights expire an uncomfortable one for Coyotes management. Raty has scored 21 points in 26 games for Ilves Tampere, helping out the second line of an offensive team that has been Liiga’s most productive by a wide margin.

He’s a player with a well-rounded skillset and a balanced offensive toolbox to go along with a high energy level. He has the potential to become an NHL winger, although he’ll probably slot in lower in his team’s lineup than he’s playing in Liiga.

The Coyotes have a pretty wide-open lineup as a result of their rebuilding efforts, meaning Raty could get NHL opportunities faster than he might in another organization. So, given the dramatic improvement in his offensive production, the decision over whether to sign Raty to an entry-level deal seems to have become a no-brainer.

William Eklund, LW, and Ozzy Wiesblatt, RW, San Jose Sharks (San Jose, AHL)
29GP 8G 13A 21pts for Eklund, 15GP 1G 3A 4pts for Wiesblatt

While Eklund and Wiesblatt were the Sharks’ first-rounders in back-to-back drafts, their development paths have progressed in wildly different directions.

Eklund, the seventh-overall pick in the 2021 draft out of Djurgarden in Sweden, has developed to expectations and maintained his status as the Sharks’ undisputed top prospect.

His first year after being drafted was a little difficult, as the young Djurgarden team he was a part of was relegated to HockeyAllsvenskan, the Swedish second division. But he did get a nine-game trial immediately out of training camp and scored four points in that span, flashing the potential that made him such a highly-touted draft pick. Additionally, his 14 points in 29 games in the SHL is a fine total for someone of his age.

Eklund’s major issue seemed to be his shooting, as he would often pass up shooting opportunities to try to find a passing play. Eklund’s biggest strength is his ability as an attacker in transition, and the lethality of his offense on the rush last year in the SHL was being compromised by his inability to score goals.

This year, Eklund decided to not play for Djurgarden in Allsvenskan and instead chose to try his luck in the AHL.

That choice has so far paid off, as Eklund has scored 21 points in 29 games, an encouraging total that ranks second on the team in scoring.

Even better than his scoring totals, though, have been Eklund’s development in terms of how he approaches creating offense.

Eklund has shown a greater eagerness to fire shots on net, and his improved shooting ability has led Barracuda head coach John McCarthy to deploy him as a one-timer threat on one of the circles on the Barracuda power play.

Helped by that role, Eklund had a recent stretch where he scored four goals in five games, a hot goal-scoring streak that seemed unthinkable just a year ago. If he can keep up his play, it’s definitely possible and maybe even likely that Eklund finds his way into a top-nine role for the Sharks in the spring.

While Eklund’s growth this season has been extremely encouraging, that’s not the case for Wiesblatt, the Sharks’ 2020 first-rounder. Wiesblatt finished his junior career last season in a relatively disappointing fashion, scoring at below a point-per-game rate in the regular season (41 points in 43 games) and notching just one point in three playoff contests.

He was battling a shoulder injury that eventually led to him being shut down for the season. While the injury he fought through is most definitely not his fault, it does not change the fact that his stock as a top prospect was on a downward trend late in his junior career.

That downward trend was emphasized by the fact that the WHL rival Wiesblatt was drafted closest to, 28th overall pick Ridly Greig, tore the WHL apart to the tune of 63 points in just 39 games. Both Wiesblatt and Greig are high-energy, physical players who attack with strength and tenacity. And yet while they play similar styles, Greig has firmly placed himself on the cusp of making the NHL while Wiesblatt looks headed in the other direction.

Wiesblatt began his professional career in earnest this fall with the Barracuda, albeit the start was delayed as he was a frequent healthy scratch. In late October, Wiesblatt get demoted to the team’s ECHL affiliate, the Wichita Thunder, in an effort to get him playing time. While Wiesblatt didn’t end up playing in the ECHL and was returned to the AHL roster, his inability to secure a regular role on a mediocre Barracuda team is troubling.

Wiesblatt has scored one goal and four points in 15 AHL games this year, operating in a limited role. The Barracuda have stressed patience with Wiesblatt, and a patient approach to his development is entirely fair. He is, after all, coming back from a campaign derailed by injury.

But even while acknowledging the need to be patient, the success of Eklund and fellow 2020 pick Thomas Bordeleau in their respective AHL careers has made feeling a little bit underwhelmed by Wiesblatt’s progress inevitable.

Jamieson Rees, C, Carolina Hurricanes (Chicago, AHL)
24GP 5G 15A 20pts

One of the most significant tests a prospect faces, one that can go a long way in determining whether that prospect truly has NHL upside, is the transition from playing against one’s peers at a junior level to playing against men in a professional setting.

Oftentimes, there are prospects who are able to thrive in a lower-intensity, less difficult junior setting, but find the habits they have built and their tried-and-true ways of playing to be ineffective at the professional level.

After last season, it seemed Rees might be headed in that sort of direction. After scoring at nearly a point-per-game rate in his draft year, Rees was selected 44th overall by Carolina. He followed that up by scoring 61 points in 39 games in his final junior season, but things got more difficult when he turned pro.

Rees turned pro with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves, a team somewhat notorious for their tendency to give premier opportunities to AHL veterans rather than their affiliated NHL club’s prospects. As an independently owned franchise, their choice to view the AHL as a league for winning rather than development is certainly respectable. And it’s worked for them too, as the Wolves are the defending Calder Cup champions.

But from Rees’ perspective, the unique difficulty prospects face in getting top-of-the-lineup opportunities in Chicago didn’t help his development, especially when combined with the injury issues he struggled with as well.

Last season, Rees’ second as a professional, he scored seven goals and 24 points on a stacked Wolves club. It seemed at that time that the 21-year-old prospect may not be able to translate his junior scoring numbers to the pro level. This year, though, the Wolves have struggled to play with the same degree of dominance they had last year, and Rees has gotten a larger opportunity than he’s had in years past.

With 20 points in 24 games, Rees has made the most of this opportunity. It’s definitely fair to wonder if Rees’ prior AHL campaigns could have been similarly successful to this one were he on a more development-oriented team, but it doesn’t appear that the Hurricanes’ management is concerned thinking about that.

Hurricanes assistant GM Darren Yorke spoke on Rees’ progress to The Athletic’s Corey Lavalette, saying: (subscription link)

Rees has battled some tough luck over the course of his amateur career and his pro career in terms of missing some time. And he’s been thrown into a high offensive role now and he’s running with it.

It’s certainly possible that this offensive jump isn’t something Rees is able to sustain and turn into a long-term NHL role. As is the case with all prospects, there remains a fair degree of uncertainty in his overall projection. But Rees’ physical, two-way style and noted ability to agitate and get under his opponents’ skin adds some depth to his profile.

That added dimension of his game sets him apart from some more traditional, straightforward high-scoring junior players, and could be what paves the way for his NHL role in the future.

Nikolai Kovalenko, RW, Colorado Avalanche (Nizhny Novgorod, KHL)
34GP 14G 16A 30pts

In the 2021-22 KHL season, there were just seven skaters with a minimum of 15 games played who managed to score at or above a point-per-game rate. Three of those players all came from the same team, SKA St. Petersburg, and another two were teammates on Dynamo Moscow.

In other words, the KHL is an extremely difficult league to stack points in. The vast majority of teams are led by scorers below the point-per-game threshold, and that difficulty in scoring points regularly is all the more present for players who are young and inexperienced.

So, when a young player comes along and manages to break through that difficulty and put up some impressive numbers, that production alone makes that player at least somewhat notable.

In the case of Kovalenko, the son of former NHLer Andrei Kovalenko, his impressive start to this season has made him one of the most intriguing prospects in a relatively thin Colorado Avalanche system.

Kovalenko spent last season with Ak Bars Kazan, and scored 14 points in 29 games as a 22-year-old KHL-er. Solid numbers, but nothing overwhelmingly impressive. This season, after a trade to Nizhny Novgorod, Kovalenko has made himself into a productive, top-of-the-lineup KHL forward.

The five-foot-ten, 185-pound winger uses his strong work rate and intelligent playmaking style to create offensive opportunities for his teammates, and he’s helped the Torpedo rank as one of the top-scoring teams in the KHL so far this year.

He’s within striking distance of that rarely-reached point-per-game plateau, and even if he doesn’t end up reaching there this season will remain an extremely impressive one. While there are still questions regarding whether Kovalenko’s game is translatable to North American ice, the most pressing issue he faces, from an NHL perspective, is availability.

The Avalanche will certainly want to add such a talented prospect to their organization, but Kovalenko could prefer to remain in the KHL until he is viewed as undoubtedly NHL-ready. It’s not uncommon KHL imports to bristle at the thought of spending major time in the minors, so one wonders if Kovalenko would rather remain in Russia than risk having to spend time with the AHL’s Colorado Eagles.

At this point, though, we don’t have any firm indication on which way Kovalenko is leaning, or when his KHL contract might expire, allowing the Avalanche to make their pitch to sign him.

What we do know, though, is that Kovalenko’s play this year has definitively raised his stock as a prospect, and that alone should be enough to keep Avalanche fans satisfied as we move deeper into the heart of the regular season.

Picture courtesy of USA Today Sports Images