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Snapshots: Hossa, Barrie, Vesey

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The Athletic’s Scott Powers writes that Blackhawks forward Marian Hossa is just fine with whatever comes his way during the 2016-17 season. The 37-year-old winger has slowed a bit since joining the Hawks in 2009-10 and had his lowest point total since the 1998-99 season. Powers reports that Hossa is cognizant of where he is in his career, and that the extra rest following a first round playoff loss to the Blues has recharged Hossa mentally and physically.

Hossa is comfortable with a more defensive-minded role, Powers adds. The gifted two-way forward’s impact on possession should remain stable even while his numbers decline. Underrated throughout the seven seasons of his Blackhawk career is the impact he has on the ice disrupting plays defensively, and then setting up scoring chances at the other end–oftentimes in the same shift.

Though he climbs in age, Hossa’s value to the Hawks is anything but diminished. If the Hawks are fortunate enough to land Jimmy Vesey, the offense that Vesey could generate would more than compensate for Hossa’s drop off. If anything, a full-out defensive minded Hossa would only ratchet up the Stanley Cup expectations in Chicago.

In other NHL news:

  • Adrian Dater argues that the purported angst between Tyson Barrie and the Colorado Avalanche  isn’t as bad as many think. He also shoots down the rumor that the Avs will deal the young d-man. Dater indicates that the Avs still own Barrie’s rights for another three seasons and wouldn’t dream of dealing him unless the trade package was significant. Dater writes that the Avs are in the “driver’s seat” when it comes to Barrie and that both sides see this negotiation as business, not personal.
  • Dater also weighs in on the Vesey-to-Blackhawks speculation and claims that the Hawks would likely use Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane as recruiting tools to bring the young forward into the fold. With every organization being bound to the same financial constraints, Dater writes that the Hawks are head and shoulders above other teams because of their prestige and standing in the league. Vesey would also be an affordable top six forward for the Hawks. In true Dater fashion, he concludes by saying “he’s been wrong before.” Regardless, Dater joins the cacophony of voices reporting the Hawks’ high chance of landing the coveted winger.

Why is Jiri Hudler Still A Free Agent?

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When PHR set out to rank the top 50 unrestricted free agents, Jiri Hudler was ranked 18th and expected to be snapped up at a reasonable price. Though some reports have him possibly talking to the Vancouver Canucks, the interest for the 32-year-old forward is tepid.

So what gives?

Hudler came up with the Detroit Red Wings, and was a strong contributor to their Stanley Cup winning season in 2007-08, and then again in 2008-09 when they fell short of a repeat championship. After a one-year hiatus in the KHL during the 2009-10 season, Hudler returned to the Red Wings until the 2011-12 season. At a glance, his numbers looked like this:

  • 2007-08: 42 points (13-29)
  • 2008-09: 57 points (23-34)
  • 2010-11:  37 points (10-27)
  • 2011-12:  50 points (25-25)

Though the Red Wings didn’t offer him another contract following the 2011-12 season, Calgary did at a tune of four years, $16MM. Hudler remained a solid contributor, hitting his career high in 2014-15 with 76 points (31-45). A season prior, he registered 54 points (17-37).

Hudler’s performance fell off in 2015-16, notching 35 points (10-25) in 53 games with Calgary before being traded to Florida. There, Hudler had 11 points (6-5) in 19 games before only adding an assist in six playoff games. He had 46 points in 72 games but it was a far cry from his previous season. Florida chose to let him walk.

So why, despite boasting better numbers than several free agents already signed, does Hudler remain unemployed?

Is it Inconsistency?

Back in 2013, several writers debated whether the Red Wings should have re-signed Hudler instead of letting him go to Calgary, where he would go on to have some steady seasons. The offer from Detroit was less than what Calgary offered by $800K per season.

With Florida, he was never even offered a chance back. Despite producing well, and apparently fitting in well with the Panthers following their acquisition, there wasn’t even a hint of an extension.

Some of the problem might be his lack of defensive responsibility. Hudler was paid to put up points, so when the scoring decreased, so did the interest. Back in June, CSN Philly’s Greg Paone wrote that Hudler would have struggled in Dave Hakstol’s system should he have signed with the Flyers. Two weeks ago, Tal Pinchevsky argued in an ESPN article that he would provide production at a discount, and his playoff struggle in Florida shouldn’t be an indictment on his overall postseason performance, pointing out that Hudler had 8 points in 11 playoff games with Calgary in 2015.

Perhaps Kevin Allen summed up what most teams debated before free agency: Would they be getting the 76 point Hudler or the 46 point Hudler?

Summarizing the theories, it appears that Hudler’s decrease in production, his defensive deficiencies, and an underwhelming playoff performance with Florida all had a hand in his current predicament.

The Czech winger should find a landing spot somewhere, especially since Sam Gagner is close to a deal with the Blue Jackets. Gagner’s deal will certainly gauge what Hudler could expect. The only certainty is that it won’t come close to what he made a season ago.

Columbus Close To Signing Sam Gagner

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are close to signing unrestricted free agent Sam Gagner, reports Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. It is rumored to be a one-year, one way deal.

Gagner last played for the Philadelphia Flyers where he scored 8G and 8A in 53 games. The Canadian center held much promise as a member of the Edmonton Oilers from 2007-2014, including netting eight points in one game, but never fulfilled the potential scouts thought he had.

PHR predicted that Gagner would take a one-year prove it deal yesterday after it was rumored that the Canucks were one of the teams interested in his services. It appears that the Canucks bowed out or that the Blue Jackets offered more money.

More to follow.

Capology 101: College Free Agents

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With the rumors surrounding Jimmy Vesey and Thomas Di Pauli this offseason taking hold, PHR takes a quick look at how the CBA treats players who choose the NCAA development route.

Generally, a team who drafts a present or future college player retains their exclusive negotiating rights for four years, but that differs with the age of a player when they are signed.

18 and 19 year olds

Teams own a player’s rights up to and including the August 15th following his graduation* if the player is or becomes a college student prior to June 1st following his selection.**  The player must remain a student through to his college class’s graduation, and the player was 18 or 19 when drafted.

If a player quits school before his last semester, his drafting team owns his rights until the later of:

  • the 4th June 1st following his draft, or
  • 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.

If a player quits school after his last semester starts, and is in his 4th year of college and either 4th year of NCAA eligibility or scheduled to graduate, then his drafting team owns his rights until the August 15th following his college termination.

20+

If a player drafted at age 20 is or becomes a college student, then the drafting team retains his rights until the later of:

  • the 2nd June 1st following his draft, or
  • 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.

Some pundits call the entire system a NCAA loophole, but the reality is much more nuanced. Teams still get four years of exclusive negotiating rights while a player seeking to enter unrestricted free agency must still sign an entry level contract wherever they sign. What that means is that a player finishing college could join the team that drafted him and burn off a year of his ELC. Going to free agency, however, removes that option, and leaves a year of free agency money on the table. It is a give and take that protects both parties.

___________

*Graduation is defined as the class with which the player is scheduled to graduate during his final semester. It is not his matriculating class.
**The same rules apply if a player receives a Bona Fide Offer and enters college prior to the 2nd June 1st following the draft.

Professional Tryouts

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As the summer wears on, many remaining unrestricted free agents begin worrying about future employment. Teams have usually filled their needs by now and are done handing out large contracts. The last hope for unsigned players becomes the professional tryout. A player is essentially invited to a team’s camp to earn a professional contract. Last year 91 players tried out for a team—and some tried out for two teams—but only 14 tryouts garnered contracts.

The criteria for teams varies. Some teams are just looking for warm bodies to play at an NHL level, while others are searching for players in a more defined role that cannot be filled by a team’s prospect pool. Most players did not impact their team, but some turned out to be pleasant surprises. Below is a list of players who signed a contract stemming from a professional try-out:

Lee Stempniak and the New Jersey Devils are the obvious beneficiary of last year’s professional tryouts. Stempniak scored 16G and 25A in 63 games for the Devils last year before being traded to the Bruins at the deadline. Four other players, however, used their salvaged year to obtain new contracts for the upcoming season as well. Gustavsson, Boulton, Rozsival, and Upshall all signed new contracts this year, one year removed from the possibility of not playing at all.

This year Maxim Lapierre is the first player to sign up for a professional tryout. The rugged forward will be on display for the New York Rangers this training camp after spending the previous season with MODO of the Swedish Elite League and HC Lugano of the Swiss National League A. Over the course of the offseason more players will do the same. Some will be looking to revitalize their career while others are looking for one last chance to prove that they have what it takes.

Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

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Each and every one of us is looking to maximize our value in life. You’re constantly on the lookout for the “best bang for your buck”, whether it be buying a new car, getting a good deal on groceries, or for hockey fans, maybe a new pair of skates or an NHL Network subscription. Such is life, and it is no different for front office executives around the league. The assets that they deal in are player contracts, and they fail or succeed by how much production they can squeeze out of each player while staying under the salary cap limit or a team-imposed budget. While you cannot really quantify the entire production of any hockey player, the best metric to analyze value is simply dollars spent per point. This shows you just how valuable a player is compared to their contract, by displaying their offensive production as a function of their contract.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. Last season, some of the league’s best players like Patrice Bergeron, Vladamir Tarasenko and Oliver Ekman-Larsson came in right around that mark. It also is a fair assessment for energy line players, aging veterans and entry-level players, whose deals are often under $1MM, leaving teams ecstatic when those players can become major point producers even though they are only expected to contribute few points. With this benchmark in mind, you’ll be astounded by some of the best value deals in the NHL in 2015-16.

Value is the reason why teams love impact rookies and All-Star caliber young players, and no entry-level deal payed off more last season than Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin. Skating alongside two of the game’s greats, Panarin put up 77 points in his first NHL season, while playing with an $812.5K cap hit. That comes out to a league-best  $10,552/point, almost ten times greater than the average rate. Even better news for Chicago: they still have one year left of that deal. The only entry-level player with more points than Panarin last season was Johnny Gaudreau, who scored 78 points at a rate of $11,859/per point (3rd best in the NHL), and the Calgary Flames are surely finding out this off-season that you pay for past value in that second contract. This is also the case for the 2nd-best value in the league, Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who scored only 66 points, but at an entry-level price tag of $712K and now finds himself in line for a big raise. In fact, the entire top ten and 37 of the top 50 cost/point leaders were on entry-level contracts last season, and many of those players, such as Vincent Trocheck (#4), Filip Forsberg (#5), Mark Scheifele (#6), and Victor Rask (#7), will all see their value decrease in the first year of expensive new extensions. Young players joining Panarin in continuing to be hockey’s “best bang for your buck” in 2016-17 are 2015 top picks Connor McDavid (#17) and Jack Eichel (#11), as well as Coyotes teammates Max Domi (#12) and Anthony Duclair (#14) and surprise rookie sensation Shayne Gostisbehere (#19).

There can still be value found in veteran players, however. Year after year, it seems that Lee Stempniak is always one of those players, as the veteran journeyman consistently outplays the modest contracts he is given. In 2015-16, Stempniak was the 13th best value in the league (#1 among standard contracts) at less than $17K/point, as he had 51 points playing on a one-year, $850K deal. He even provided additional value to the New Jersey Devils in the form of 2nd-round and 4th-round picks that they acquired from the Bruins when they traded Stempniak at the deadline. His teammate in Boston, Ryan Spooner, was second among standard-contract players, scoring 49 points in the first year of a two-year bridge deal with the Bruins that carries a cap hit of $950K. Expect Spooner to be back in the top 20 again next season. And of course who could forget Matt Cullen who, at 39, was often referred to as the best value in hockey last season, as his 32 points playing on a veteran’s contract of $800K was a big piece of the puzzle for the Pittsburgh Penguins as they marched to a Stanley Cup championship.

With the good comes the bad, and for every great young player or surprise veteran that provides their club with great value, there are overpaid players who don’t perform or role players who never seem to find their role there to bring them down.  In 2015-16, no player epitomized a lack of value like Tuomo Ruutu. Once a consistent two-way player capable of producing 30 to 50 points per season, the wheels had completely fallen off of the wagon for Ruutu well before entering the final season of a four-year, $19MM contract. In 33 games with Devils, Ruutu had just one assist (and was a -7) for a cost/point ratio of his entire cap hit, $4.75MM. Not to be outdone, Florida’s Garrett Wilson did not record a single point in 29 contests for the Panthers, thus producing an incalculable value metric, which is hard to swallow even for a player with a $675K cap hit. Tom Gilbert and Boyd Gordon are two more who struggled mightily to provide scoring value to their teams in 2015-16.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric. For more reading, check out the complete list of players at CapFriendly.com.

Snapshots: Coyotes; Gagner; Barrie

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News and notes around the NHL:

  • With the recent signings of Connor Murphy and Michael Stone, the Arizona Coyotes now have eight defensemen signed to NHL deals—and that’s not even including top draft prospect Jake Chychrun, whom the Coyotes moved up for in the 2016 NHL Draft. As Craig Morgan of AZSports writes, the backlog of NHL-ready defensemen poses both problem and prosperity for the team. It creates a logjam of defensemen and little opportunity for prospects like Chychrun to get playing time, but it also gives them expendable pieces to upgrade other areas. The Coyotes may have to look elsewhere for offensive help if they cannot re-sign RFA Tobias Rieder before the season starts. Trading from a position of strength to obtain a forward kills two birds with one stone. Take a look at Arizona’s depth chart at Roster Resource.
  • UFA Sam Gagner is close to signing a deal with an NHL team, according to his agent. Gagner last played for the Philadelphia Flyers where he scored 8G and 8A in 53 games. The Canadian center held much promise as a member of the Edmonton Oilers from 2007-2014, including netting eight points in one game, but never fulfilled the potential scouts thought he had. Gagner will probably take a one-year “prove it” deal to try and revitalize his career.
  • RFA Tyson Barrie completed his arbitration hearing today, and the arbitrator will issue her decision within 48 hours. Because Colorado offered a $4MM contract, and Barrie offered a $6MM contract, the arbitrator’s decision will most likely meet the threshold ($3.9MM) to open up Colorado’s walk-away rights. If Colorado chooses to invoke those rights, they will be stuck with the arbitrator’s decision for one year before Barrie becomes a free agent. When a team elects a two-year term decision for any player-elected salary arbitration, using walk away rights reduces the arbitrator’s decision down to one year, and then the player becomes a UFA.

 

West Notes: Blues, Horvat, Domi

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When center David Backes left St. Louis to sign a five year, $30MM contract with Boston at the beginning of the month, he vacated the captaincy for the Blues in the process.  Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests that defenseman Alex Pietrangelo may be ready to take over the role.

Pietrangelo has been a mainstay on the back end for St. Louis for the past six seasons and has been among their leaders in ice time and points from the blueline in each year.  In 2015-16, he served as an alternate captain and played in 73 games with the Blues, picking up 37 points while averaging 26:18 of ice time per game, the sixth highest average in the league.

Blues GM Doug Armstrong had plenty of good things to say about Pietrangelo when it comes to his leadership:

“He was an assistant captain at a young age and he has leadership qualities that we’ve seen.  As he gets more and more comfortable in the leadership role he’s certainly growing into an elite player that has a presence on the ice.”

If the Blues decide to go with more of a veteran as their next captain, Alex Steen, who has spent the last nine seasons with St. Louis, is the other likely candidate for the post.

More from the Western Conference:

  • In an interview with Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province, Canucks center Bo Horvat acknowledged that the plan last season was for him to ease into a second line role. However, multiple injuries to Brandon Sutter thrusted Horvat into that role quicker than planned which played a part in his early-season struggles.  While he finished strong last year (27 of his 40 points came in the second half), Horvat may be pencilled in behind Sutter and Henrik Sedin on the depth chart to start next season.
  • Coyotes forward Max Domi is a big fan of Arizona’s additions this offseason, telling TSN.ca that their moves have been “amazing”. The Coyotes have added blueliners Alex Goligoski and Luke Schenn as well as winger Jamie McGinn in the last month.  Domi was Arizona’s top point getter amongst their forwards last season as a rookie, collecting 18 goals and 34 assists in 81 games.  The 21 year old also believes the Coyotes can take another step forward in 2016-17 and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2012.

Maple Leafs Re-Sign Martin Marincin

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The Maple Leafs announced that they have agreed to terms with on a two year contract with their last remaining restricted free agent, defenseman Martin Marincin.  The deal will pay him $1.2MM in 2016-17 and $1.3MM in 2017-18 for a cap hit of $1.25MM.  Marincin was scheduled for a salary arbitration hearing on August 2nd.

Marincin joined Toronto last offseason in a draft day trade with the Oilers.  In 2015-16, he suited up in a career high 65 games for the Leafs, picking up a goal and six assists.  He also logged 16:46 per game, a career low after averaging nearly 19 minutes a night in two partial seasons with Edmonton.  In his career, the 24 year old has played in 150 total NHL games between the Maple Leafs and Oilers, recording two goals and 16 assists while averaging 17:59 per game.

Toronto now has nine defensemen on one-way contracts for next season, including Jared Cowen whose attempted buyout is now heading for arbitration as well as Stephane Robidas who missed all of last season due to injury.

[Related: Updated Maple Leafs Depth Chart]

With all of their arbitration-bound players now signed, the Leafs will have a 48 hour buyout window that will open up on Monday.

With the signing, Toronto has just $435K in cap space according to Cap Friendly.  This amount does not factor in any potential LTIR savings, such as Nathan Horton and his $5.3MM cap hit.  GM Lou Lamoriello will now likely turn his focus to securing a veteran backup goaltender for newly-acquired Frederik Andersen.  The team was linked to Jhonas Enroth over the weekend but a deal has yet to be finalized.

The Latest On Rickard Rakell’s Contract Talks

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As we head towards August, the Anaheim Ducks still have two key restricted free agents to re-sign.  One of those is forward Rickard Rakell, who is coming off a career year.

Rakell’s agent, Peter Wallen spoke with Eric Stephens of the OC Register regarding negotiations and said that “We are talking and I think we will find common ground for a solid agreement as I feel both parties seem to want that to happen very much”.

Rakell is coming off his entry-level contract and did not have any arbitration rights this offseason.  He played in 72 games with the Ducks last season, collecting 20 goals and 23 assists, setting career highs in both categories.  He also saw a significant increase in ice time from 12:34 per game in 2014-15 to 16:04 last year.

Anaheim currently has just over $8.4MM in cap space according to Cap Friendly but also still have defenseman Hampus Lindholm to re-sign.  There may not enough space to sign both to long-term contracts so one of the two may be forced into taking a shorter-term bridge deal as a result.

If they opt for a long-term deal, Rakell is comparable to Hurricanes forward Victor Rask, who inked a six year, $24MM contract earlier this offseason.  A deal like that would buy out all of the remaining RFA years plus a pair of UFA-eligible seasons.  If they go the bridge route though, his stats the last couple of seasons are similar to San Jose’s Tomas Hertl, who signed a two year, $6MM pact late last month.  Going that route would likely allow them to be able to sign Lindholm on a long-term contract this summer but would likely result in Rakell receiving a higher AAV down the road.

The preseason is still nearly two months away so there’s no rush to get something done with Rakell or Lindholm but if GM Bob Murray wants to make any more moves this offseason, he’ll likely need to get contracts done with both players to see how much cap and budget space he has left to work with.

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