The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:
Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining
As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.
Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining
The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.
Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining
Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.
Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining
For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.
Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining
When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.
Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining
I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.
Nashville Predators: None
GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.
New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining
The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.
New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining
The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.
New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining
Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.
Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining
No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk‘s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.
Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…
Gemel Smith Clears Waivers
The Dallas Stars have taken a play out of the Calgary Flames book, having placed Gemel Smith on waivers prior to his arbitration hearing on Wednesday August 1st. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that Smith actually cleared waivers today, though there had been no report yesterday of his assignment. The Flames used the same tactic earlier this month with Brett Kulak, in order to show the player’s relative value around the league. Smith is definitely an interesting player, but any acquiring team would have needed to quickly prepare for the arbitration hearing without the ability to reschedule it.
Smith, 24, played in 46 games for the Stars last season and scored 11 points, but was given very little opportunity to play consistent minutes. Averaging fewer than 10 minutes per game, the fourth-round pick was limited to being just an energy player for a team that struggled to find much secondary scoring. Dallas was extremely top heavy, playing their big three forwards—Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov—20 minutes or more each night while giving few chances to those lower in the lineup. That may change with new head coach Jim Montgomery, but it doesn’t necessarily mean a bigger opportunity for Smith.
After adding Blake Comeau and Valeri Nichushkin this summer, Smith will have to battle younger players like Jason Dickinson and Roope Hintz for a roster spot let alone regular minutes on the ice. The team is deeper on the wing this season and has to ride whichever hand is hottest in a must-win season. Dallas missed the playoffs again last season and can’t keep struggling in the middle of the Western Conference pack during the peak years of Benn, Seguin and John Klingberg. Smith should get a chance to impress at some point given his upcoming arbitration award and lack of waiver-exempt status, but he’s going to have to battle for it.
The fact that the rest of the league passed on Smith already should give Dallas renewed belief that they could sneak him through again in the season and send him to the minor leagues, but that’s not necessarily the case. Roster situations can change drastically over the next two months, and depending on the arbitration award (or settlement) teams could think he’s worth the risk.
Calgary Flames, Brett Kulak Await Arbitration Decision
Almost unbelievably, given recent history, another salary arbitration case has gone to hearing today without a contract resolution. The Calgary Flames, defenseman Brett Kulak, and their respective representatives sat down with the arbitrator this morning and Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson says that the parties emerged from the meeting a few hours ago. The two sides now have an approximate 48-hour window to reach an extension settlement on their own terms. Once the formal decision is made on Wednesday, the awarded contract will be final.
Similar to the Jacob Trouba case – the decision handed down yesterday – it seems like the Flames and Kulak are content to await the arbitrator’s judgement, though. Calgary considers Kulak to be a replacement-level, fringe NHL player. They established that when they filed at the minimum $650K for a two-way contract in their arbitration brief and then enforced it when they placed Kulak on waivers on Friday. Kulak and his reps feel that he has established himself as a regular in the league and is deserving of a one-way deal worth more than $1MM. There is a convincing case to be made on both sides and countless comparable contracts to cite, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a middle ground when even the nature of the contract is in dispute, nevertheless salary and term. It’s been all quiet on both sides in recent days and the next 48 hours seem likely to go unused.
The Flames may also be preoccupied with two more upcoming arbitration cases and willing to take what they get from the arbitrator rather than spend time continuing negotiations with Kulak’s side. Calgary faces forward Mark Jankowski on Friday and goaltender David Rittich on Saturday, two players likely to play a larger role for the Flames this season and beyond than Kulak. Such a busy arbitration schedule is far from the norm for Calgary; beat writer Darren Haynes points out that the Flames have reached the hearing stage of salary arbitration with just one player – Lance Bouma in 2015 – in the last ten years. If nothing changes, they are less than a week away from quadrupling that total.
Snapshots: Canucks, Johnsson, Zucker
With Vancouver still not having yet decided whether or not to sign top pick Quinn Hughes for next season, Postmedia’s Jason Botchford suggests there is some pressure on the Canucks to clear up their logjam on the back end to help pave a path for the youngster to play in the NHL in 2018-19. However, he points out that their trade options are limited due to no-trade clauses, players underachieving last season, or inflated contracts. Their best trade chip may be Troy Stecher but dealing him opens up a hole on the right side while Hughes is a left-shot player. Accordingly, someone like Derrick Pouliot (who is on an affordable $1.1MM deal) could be the most realistic trade option they have although the return for him likely wouldn’t be particularly substantial.
Elsewhere around the league:
- The Maple Leafs and winger Andreas Johnsson did discuss a multi-year deal before Johnsson ultimately decided to take his qualifying offer, notes James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription required). However, given the lack of comparable players for someone who has some promise but just nine regular season NHL games under his belt, they weren’t able to settle on something that made sense for both sides. Johnsson is playing under a two-way deal once again next season but considering that he’s a lock to be claimed off waivers if Toronto tried to send him down, that provision in his contract is merely just a formality.
- After getting Mathew Dumba locked up earlier today, Minnesota is now shifting their focus to their other arbitration-eligible restricted free agent in winger Jason Zucker. On a conference call, Wild GM Paul Fenton told reporters, including Sarah McLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (Twitter link) that they had several discussions with his camp this week and remain hopeful that they can get a new deal done before his hearing next weekend. Zucker is coming off of a 64-point season and is projected to receive a significant raise on the $2MM he received in each of the last two seasons.
Brett Kulak Placed On Waivers
Friday: Kulak has cleared waivers and will now await his Monday arbitration hearing.
Thursday: The Calgary Flames have placed Brett Kulak on waivers today as they prepare for an arbitration hearing on Monday with the restricted free agent. This type of transaction often occurs before an arbitration date when the team is confident they can get a player through the waiver process without claim, in order to establish his relative value around the league.
Kulak, 24, played 71 games with the Flames last season but averaged fewer than 13 minutes a night while not seeing almost any powerplay or penalty kill time. That limited his offensive contributions to just eight points, and will hurt him in the arbitration negotiations next week. Still, Kulak is coming off a one-year two-way minimum salary contract, something that he clearly deserves a raise on if only a slight one. If Calgary intends on using him again next season on a regular basis, they could ask for the arbitrator to award a two-year deal knowing that the cap hit would be reasonable. That would take Kulak to 26 and still leave him a restricted free agent at the conclusion of the deal.
If the young defenseman was placed on waivers in a few weeks, there may be several interested parties. He’s shown enough to prove that he can be relied on as NHL depth, and there have been flashes up real upside to his game over the last few years. There is a problem for any inquiring team though, and that is the arbitration hearing that is the reason for waivers in the first place. Any claiming team would not be given an extension and would have to present their case on Monday like Calgary is preparing to do. Though certainly possible, teams might not believe they can adequately argue his potential salary with just a weekend to prepare. That, and the still in-flux nature of most NHL rosters has led Calgary to believe that Kulak will pass through unclaimed, something that will be determined tomorrow.
Flames Re-Sign Goaltender Jon Gillies
Tuesday: The Flames have officially announced the contract, confirming the financial details reported by Lavoie.
Monday: The Calgary Flames may have hinted at who they feel their goalie of the future is with a contract inked this evening. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that the Flames have signed 24-year-old Jon Gillies to a two-year contract extension worth $750K against the cap in each season. The first year of contract is of a two-way nature, while the second is a one-way deal, according to Lavoie.
Gillies made a career-high 11 NHL appearances last year in his third pro season, but his .896 save percentage, 2.88 GAA, and five losses were not overly impressive. However, Gillies enjoyed a second straight strong season with the AHL’s Stockton Heat, posting a .917 save percentage and 2.53 GAA in 39 games. Yet, fellow up-and-coming keeper David Rittich outplayed Gillies in the NHL and saw more action, even though he struggled in the AHL. Based on last season alone, many would have assumed that Rittich had the upper hand heading into training camp this fall, where the two are expected to battle for the backup spot behind Mike Smith.
Yet, Gillies’ extension may prove otherwise. A one-way contract in 2019-20 could indicate that the Flames fully expect Gillies to be a full-time NHLer in two years. If he isn’t, then Calgary risks losing him on waivers at that time. Flames beat writer Ryan Pike also points out that Gillies needs 16 appearances – five more than last year – or he will otherwise become a Group 6 free agent at the end of the contract. If the Flames want to protect Gillies long-term, they need to get him into some games. Of course, this whole status quo all change with the arbitration decision in Rittich’s case, but it certainly seems as if the organization may be leaning toward Gillies as their goalie of the future.
San Jose Sharks Place Noah Rod On Unconditional Waivers
It sounds like the end of the line for Noah Rod in a San Jose Sharks uniform, as the team has placed him on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract. Rod only signed his entry-level contract in March of 2017, but will likely return to Switzerland after playing just 11 games for the Sharks’ AHL affiliate. Selected in the second round in 2014, Rod is only 22 years old.
It’s a tough end to the relationship for a young prospect and team, given that there wasn’t much of an evaluation period. Rod made it clear that he only wanted to play for the Sharks, not the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda, and returned to Switzerland quickly after failing to make the NHL. Though he wasn’t playing against the very top competition in the AHL or NLA, he did go up against some of the best in the world at the most recent World Championships where Switzerland took home a silver medal. He was held scoreless in the tournament, which isn’t very surprising given his relatively low point totals throughout his professional career.
Rod is a ball of energy on the ice, banging and crashing in all three zones. It’s that limited offensive ceiling that makes this loss easier to swallow for the Sharks, who while sinking some expensive draft capital into the player couldn’t have expected a top-six player at this point. There is a chance he catches on with another NHL team at some point, but if he remains unwilling to go to the minor leagues first there may not be a spot for him. Instead, the winger will likely continue to suit up in the NLA and for his country internationally, trying to develop his game further.
Damir Sharipzyanov Placed On Unconditional Waivers
Largely unnoticed earlier today was the placement of Damir Sharipzyanov on unconditional waivers for the purpose of a mutual contract termination. The 22-year old defenseman actually spent last season in the KHL on loan, but will now have his NHL rights relinquished by the Los Angeles Kings. Tomorrow after his contract is terminated he could technically sign with another NHL team, but it seems likely that he will return to the KHL.
Sharipzyanov, 22, signed an entry-level contract in 2015 after going undrafted for the second time and returned to the Owen Sound Attack for a final season and won a silver medal for Russia at the World Juniors. His point totals were solid if unspectacular, and he had the size to potentially find success at the professional level. After a season spent bouncing between the ECHL and AHL, he decided to go to the KHL where he would have a better opportunity. In this interview with Alessandro Seren Rosso for The Hockey Writers, Sharipzyanov did seem to indicate that he would want to come back to North America eventually.
I had a chance to get back home. To be loaned [to the KHL]. And then to get back to North America. I simply want to play. I didn’t have this option [in North America] at this moment. That’s why I and my agent decided to give the KHL a chance.
It seems unlikely that the Kings would give up his rights if he intended on playing in North America this season, meaning we’ll likely have to wait to see if there is a return down the road. If his first season in the KHL was any indication—where he recorded 16 points in 54 games while logging nearly 20 minutes a night—there could be plenty of teams after him in a few years.
Wild To Buy Out Tyler Ennis
The final day of the first buyout window has claimed a second casualty as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the Wild have placed forward Tyler Ennis on unconditional waivers to buy out the final year of his contract. He had one year remaining on his deal with a $4.6MM cap hit. That means Minnesota will instead carry a cap hit of $2.167MM in 2018-19 and $1.217MM in 2019-20.
The Wild acquired the 28-year-old last offseason from the Sabres as part of the trade that saw defenseman Marco Scandella and winger Jason Pominville head to Buffalo with winger Marcus Foligno also heading to Minnesota.
While they were certainly hoping that a change of scenery would get him going, that didn’t wind up happening. While he did improve on his numbers with Buffalo, Ennis still posted just 22 points (8-14-22) in 73 games, hardly the type of production that justifies the type of contract he had.
New GM Paul Fenton had made it clear that they were looking to get out of the final year of his contract as he had been trying to attach Ennis in trade talks regarding wingers Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker, and Nino Niederreiter. However, since they weren’t able to find a taker, they’ll now go down this path and free up nearly $2.2MM in additional cap space to work with this offseason.
Canadiens To Buy Out Steve Mason
Steve Mason‘s time with the Canadiens lasted all of a few hours. TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports (Twitter link) that the team will place the goaltender on unconditional waivers for the purposes of buying out his contract. He had one year and $4.1MM remaining on his contract. That means that Montreal will carry a cap hit of $1.367MM in each of the next two seasons.
The 30-year-old had been acquired earlier in the day as part of a salary cap dump from Winnipeg that also saw the Canadiens acquire winger Joel Armia. This isn’t a surprising outcome as Montreal already has veteran Antti Niemi under contract to be their second-string netminder while youngster Charlie Lindgren is also on a one-way deal but will likely start in the minors once again.
Mason spent 2017-18 with Winnipeg after signing a two-year, $8.2MM contract last summer. He struggled to stay healthy as he dealt with multiple concussions and he didn’t fare particularly well when he was in the lineup, posting a below average 3.24 GAA and a .906 SV% in 13 games (12 starts). Assuming he clears waivers as expected on Sunday, he will hit the open market for the second straight summer in search of a new team.