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Evening Notes: Rantanen, Binnington, Sundqvist

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Evan Rawal of Colorado Hockey Now writes about the impact that Leon Draisaitl’s new contract will have on Colorado Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen’s next deal. The 27-year-old Rantanen shares an agent with Draisaitl but appears unlikely to match the $14MM AAV that Draisaitl recently agreed to. David Pastrnak’s contract is probably a good comparable for Rantanen, but as Rawal points out, that deal was signed a year and a half ago and the cap has gone up since then and will likely go up again next season.

Rantanen is coming off back-to-back 100+ point seasons and has scored 97 goals in the past two seasons. Given that he plays in Colorado, the Avalanche will likely want to keep his AAV under the $12.6MM that Nathan MacKinnon signed for in September 2022.

In other evening notes:

  • Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic writes about St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington and whether he will play out the final three years of his contract in St. Louis. Rutherford believes that if Binnington plays well for the next couple of seasons and keeps the team in the playoff hunt then the team will likely keep him through the end of his deal (or close to the end of it). However, if Binnington’s play drops off, or if backup Joel Hofer is ready to play, Rutherford could foresee St. Louis turning to their young backup to anoint him the team’s starter, regardless of whether they keep or trade Binnington.
  • Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic writes that Blues forward Oskar Sundqvist began skating again after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL on March 25th. Sundqvist was supposed to be evaluated at the end of September and it is encouraging to see him skating this early. St. Louis is expected to have several young forward prospects challenge for roles this fall at training camp but given that Sundqvist was just re-signed to a two-year deal, it’s likely he will start the season in the NHL if he is healthy enough to do so. The 30-year-old signed a two-year, $3MM deal in March and posted six goals and 15 assists in 71 games before the injury.

Torey Krug’s Injury Could Be Career-Threatening

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St. Louis Blues defenseman Torey Krug spoke with reporters today for the first time about his injury situation and acknowledged that the issue with his ankle could be career-ending (as per Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic). Krug told reporters today that he first sustained the injury in 2018 while he was a member of the Boston Bruins. Krug broke his left ankle in the second round of the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning when he awkwardly slammed into the boards and was done for the playoffs.

Krug started the 2018-19 season late (missing 11 games) but managed to dress in 64 games for the Bruins before finishing his time in Boston in 2019-20. He then signed a seven-year contract with St. Louis and played several seasons after the initial injury, but started to have an issue with arthritis from the ankle surgery. He played through the pain, receiving support in the form of treatment, exercise and injections.

It wasn’t until this offseason that Krug started to have major issues during his training. He called Blues general manager Doug Armstrong to report the issue and to formulate a plan with medical personnel. The initial timeline was to rehab his ankle for six to eight weeks and then re-evaluate. Now, with the rehab period over, Krug will go in for a procedure called a subtalar fusion, which could be career-threatening for the 33-year-old as it restricts lateral movement within the foot and ankle, something that is required for an NHL defenseman to move around the ice with ease.

Dr. Rick Lehman, a medical director for the U.S. Center of Sports Medicine put Krug’s odds of playing in the NHL again at about 30%, calling the procedure a Hail Mary. He also added that while a return to the ice is possible, the surgery is very difficult to come back from and the recovery period is unpredictable.

Torey Krug To Undergo Ankle Surgery, Out For Season

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Blues defenseman Torey Krug will undergo surgery to address pre-arthritic changes in his left ankle and will miss the entire 2024-25 season, general manager Doug Armstrong announced today. The team’s press release didn’t say when Krug will have the surgery performed.

It’s not an unexpected development. The team said season-ending surgery was a possibility in July when they announced that team doctors had detected pre-arthritic conditions in his ankle.

At the time, the team said Krug would “work to rehabilitate the injury through non-surgical interventions over the course of the next six to eight weeks” before determining whether surgery would be necessary. With those interventions failing, the 33-year-old will sit out the campaign.

Krug’s left ankle injury is a “cumulative result of a bone fracture suffered earlier in his playing career,” the Blues said earlier this summer. They didn’t state specifics, but it’s most likely the left ankle fracture he sustained in the second round of the 2018 playoffs while with the Bruins. It cost him the final game of their series loss against the Lightning, and he also missed the first 11 games of the 2018-19 season while recovering from the fracture.

The defender is now over halfway through the seven-year, $45.5MM contract he signed in St. Louis as an unrestricted free agent in 2020. He has three seasons remaining on the deal, which carries a $6.5MM cap hit.

While not a stark overpayment, especially as the salary cap begins to rise, Krug hasn’t met expectations with the Blues. Injuries are nothing new for the defender, who’s never played a full 82 games in a season, and he’s missed at least five games in all of his four seasons in St. Louis thus far. Last year’s 77 appearances were his most in seven years.

Krug was signed mainly to fill the void left on the St. Louis blue line by former captain Alex Pietrangelo, who left for the Golden Knights in free agency in 2020 just one year after leading the Blues to their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. At no point in his career has Krug been the all-around defender that Pietrangelo was, though, and that’s been reflected in his subpar possession numbers since heading west to Missouri.

In 255 games as a Blue, Krug has 22 goals, 124 assists and 146 points with a -23 rating while averaging 20:54 per game, slightly more usage than he saw during his nine years in Boston. With him on the ice at even strength, the Blues have controlled 49.0% of shot attempts and 47.7% of expected goals, per Hockey Reference.

Krug was only the Blues’ third most-used defenseman last season. His 21:58 average time on ice checked in behind Colton Parayko (23:52) and Nick Leddy (22:22).

Fresh offer-sheet acquisition Philip Broberg will likely get the first chance to replace the majority of Krug’s minutes. The 2019 eighth-overall pick by the Oilers, who the Blues signed to a two-year, $9.16MM contract last month that Edmonton declined to match, had 38 points in 49 games with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors last season.

The skilled puck-mover has only seen limited NHL minutes in Edmonton, and thrusting him into top-four minutes out of the gate is a significant gamble for a Blues team with playoff aspirations. But doing so would make his pricey $4.58MM cap hit much more palatable.

They also have a solid backup option for Broberg in 26-year-old Scott Perunovich, whose development has been delayed by a series of significant injuries. Nonetheless, he’s still got a fair bit of offensive upside and had 17 assists in 54 contests for the Blues last year while averaging just 15:16 per game.

Cap-wise, the Blues will have ample flexibility this season with the option to place Krug on long-term injured reserve at any time. They have over $2MM in projected cap space with an open roster spot though, per PuckPedia, so that won’t be necessary to begin the season. They’ll keep him on standard injured reserve for as long as possible to accumulate cap space throughout the season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blues In Rare Position To Promote Multiple Prospects

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The St. Louis Blues are in a bit of a funk. They’ve missed each of the last two postseasons – only the fourth time in the team’s 57-year history that they’ve missed consecutive playoffs – but are still being elevated by the next-level talent of players like Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Jordan Binnington. That’s kept the team from falling completely into the NHL’s basement, but their core is still aging rapidly. It seems the clock is ticking in St. Louis – as the Blues find themselves in urgent need of a surge in young talent to keep the lineup from falling into a rebuild.

Unfortunately, promoting young players hasn’t been much of a hallmark of recent Blues hockey. Only two teenagers – Thomas and Robby Fabbri – have played meaningful minutes in St. Louis since 2010, and still, both players faced third-line roles and plenty of scrutiny over their ice time. But they each found ways to produce, scoring 33 and 37 points in their rookie seasons respectively, and both eventually working onto St. Louis’ top line. That was short-lived for Fabbri, but the duo’s success nonetheless showed the payoff of giving top prospects NHL minutes.

The Blues have more recently seen those same patterns with 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who worked up to an impressive 27 goals and 38 points in 77 games this season. It was Neighbours’ first full year in the NHL – though he entered with 52 games of prior experience – and he walked out the tail end of it with a firm grasp on a second-line role. Joel Hofer, 24, made a similar climb to prominence this year, appearing in 30 games and matching the .913 of starter Binnington – having graduated from two proud seasons as the AHL starter.

It’s continued evidence of young players finding success in NHL minutes – spelling tons of excitement for a Blues team preparing to host Dalibor Dvorsky, Zachary Bolduc, and Zach Dean at training camp. The latter two each received their NHL debuts last Spring, with Bolduc even formalizing his rookie season with 25 games played. But Bolduc managed just nine points, while Dean went scoreless in nine games. Their quiet scoring prevailed in the minors leagues as well, but both Bolduc and Dean took big strides in improving their ability to match pro pace. Meanwhile, Dvorsky was tearing up the OHL, recording 45 goals and 88 points in just 52 games. He looked like a pro among amateurs, likely thanks to the 38 games he played in Sweden’s HockeyAllsvenskan in 2022-23.

All three forwards are capable of a jump to the top flight, with the sturdy frames of Bolduc and Dvorsky looking especially mature. That’s great news, as St. Louis sits with, perhaps, their most uncertain bottom-six since the early-2000s. It’s a hodge-podge group, where Alexey Toropchenko stands as the only confident inclusion. Joining him will be a mix of quiet Blues veterans – like Oskar Sundqvist, Nathan Walker, and Kasperi Kapanen – and new acquisitions – like Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, and Alexandre Texier. That’s plenty of manpower to round out a bottom-six, but none of those options would stand as particularly daunting against a young prospect who impresses out of camp.

Making things more exciting is St. Louis’ win of the sweepstakes for Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. They shelled out $6.87MM in offer sheets to bring in the duo, but now add two more exciting young players into their mix of potential breakout names. Holloway is the more experienced of the two, having played in 89 games across the last two seasons. He’s only scored 18 points, split evenly, in those appearances, but looked to have a bit more momentum when he put up nine points in 25 games during the most recent postseason. Holloway has shown he’s capable of being productive with a pro role, scoring 26 points in 30 career AHL games, and should get a chance to quickly earn a prominent role on St. Louis’ lineup. Broberg’s story is largely the same – low-scoring through roughly a season’s worth of NHL appearances (13 points in 81 games) but encouraging minor-league production (65 points in 87 games) and a chance to quickly earn a major role.

That gives St. Louis the rare mix of multiple U23 prospects vying for NHL ice time, and the lineup spots to truly accommodate multiple rookies. It’s been six seasons since the Blues iced carried multiple U23 players on their everyday roster (2017-18, Robert Thomas and Vince Dunn) – but the stars are aligning, making now a better time than ever for St. Louis to fully embrace their burgeoning top prospects. If and how the quintet of Dvorsky, Bolduc, Dean, Holloway, and Broberg are able to earn out NHL roles will stand as the most prophetic question as the Blues look to finally return to the postseason.

Insight Into Pavel Buchnevich’s Extension Negotiations

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St. Louis Blues forward Pavel Buchnevich recently took part in a long-ranging interview with Daria Tuboltseva of RG.org where the two discussed topics such as his recent contract extension negotiations to the near future of the Blues organization. Buchnevich recently signed a six-year, $48MM extension with St. Louis on the second day of free agency this summer after seeing his name mired in trade rumors for much of the regular season.

The trade speculation was brought up in the interview and it doesn’t seem that anything was particularly close. Buchnevich referenced a conversation with general manager Doug Armstrong shortly after the trade deadline where he quoted Armstrong as saying, “I didn’t plan to trade you. The price for you was very high. But I couldn’t tell you that we definitely wouldn’t trade you, because if someone had agreed to that price, I couldn’t help but take advantage of it“.

Armstrong moved quickly on extending Buchnevich after other teams failed to meet a lofty asking price with the two sides agreeing on a salary near the draft according to Buchnevich. The two sides agreed relatively quickly allowing the Blues to have their core forwards including Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou locked up until the 2030-31 NHL season. The Russian forward’s only main concern was the franchise’s direction moving forward; especially after the team fired head coach Craig Berube during the regular season.

His concerns were assuaged during the negotiations as Armstrong highlighted that the organization was not interested in rebuilding. Armstrong’s credibility in the negotiations was solidified this summer as the Blues got aggressive on the trade market and with offer sheets to round out their depth. Not only did they look outside the organization for help but Buchnevich himself brought up the young talent coming up when he said, “They told me there would be no long rebuild; they want to make a strong team here and now. No one is interested in a long rebuild. They said that they would try to strengthen the team in the market. They also outlined the situation with young players: many good hockey players are coming“.

St. Louis finished six points back of a wild-card spot in the 2023-24 NHL season and life will not get any easier in a tough Central Division this year. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars still serve as some of the better teams in the Western Conference while the Nashville Predators got much better this offseason. The Blues will have to start better out of the gates this year as they look to return to the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since 2022.

Holloway Comments On Negotiations With Oilers Before Signing Offer Sheet

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  • In an appearance on the Hockey Sense Show (video link), Blues winger Dylan Holloway acknowledged that his camp knew about the offer sheet coming before any true negotiations with the Oilers were held. Even before it was signed, the 22-year-old hoped to use it as a pressure point to kickstart discussions with Edmonton but those talks never came about.  Holloway indicated that his asking price wasn’t particularly high but evidently, the Oilers weren’t interested in working on a deal at the time.  He signed a two-year deal with St. Louis that carries a cap hit just above $2.29MM with Edmonton receiving a compensatory third-round pick in return.

Looking Ahead At Early Training Camp Battles

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The 2024 offseason is nearly at its end and many teams are looking ahead toward training camp. A few teams have unfinished business to attend to but most heavy lifting is completed across the league. Training camp and preseason contests give the team a first glance at new talent and also bring along the strenuous process of trimming the team down to a 23-man roster before opening night in October. This will not be an exhaustive list by any stretch of the imagination but a few notable training camp battles have already developed after a lengthy summer.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have sustained one of the most successful stretches outside a Stanley Cup title in organizational history. The team has made the playoffs for six straight seasons and has regularly boasted one of the deeper lineups in the league over that stretch. Unfortunately, the team lost valuable talent in Jake Guentzel, Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei this summer, leading many to believe this team has taken a noticeable step backward this offseason. The team filled in their blue line adequately with Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere on low-cost deals but there is still a glaring hole on the team’s second line.

Martin Necas could slot into a center or right-wing role on the second line. The possession-heavy Hurricane offense makes him a better option on the wing due to poor faceoff percentage throughout his career. That leaves Carolina to choose from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jack Drury, Jack Roslovic, or Jordan Staal to middle the team’s second-line with another question mark at left wing. This battle will mainly come down to prospects Bradly Nadeau and Jackson Blake as many of the other wingers on the team are better-positioned in bottom-six roles. Neither have the upper hand at the outset as both showed off promising talent in the NCAA last season at the University of Maine and the University of North Dakota, respectively, and it will be an interesting battle to see play out in a few weeks.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings are headed into year six of the ’Yzerplan’ and have yet to return to the Stanley Cup playoffs. The organization came close last year as they tied with the Washington Capitals in points for the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference only to miss out due to the first tiebreaker. Poised to make headlines this summer in the hopes of icing a playoff-caliber roster in a tough Atlantic Division — the Red Wings fell flat. Their biggest moves of the summer were retaining forward Patrick Kane on a one-year deal, signing Vladimir Tarasenko to a two-year pact, and signing goaltender Cam Talbot to complete their goaltending trio.

Detroit seemingly already has a full roster heading into training camp in a few weeks. Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson, Carter Mazur, and Nate Danielson are poised to challenge for a full-time spot in the lineup which could lead the Red Wings to some difficult choices in October. The team will eventually have to begin graduating their glut of prospects to the NHL level but most of them are blocked by the numerous acquisitions general manager Steve Yzerman has made over the last few years. Don’t be surprised if Detroit becomes an active trade candidate before the season opens to make room for some of their prospects.

Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild are set to open the 2024-25 NHL season with two-and-a-half goalies on the roster to the surprise of many. After the team extended uber-popular goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to a one-year deal in mid-April the going notion was that the Wild would pursue a trade of Filip Gustavsson over the summer to open up a spot for top prospect Jesper Wallstedt. It shouldn’t be a make-or-break season for Wallstedt if the Wild keep him down in the minors for another year but he has little left to prove at the AHL level.

Gustavsson could still be a viable trade candidate throughout the season with a manageable $3.75MM cap hit for the next two years. It’s still difficult to view Minnesota not capitalizing on an active goaltending trade market this summer as anything other than a misstep. Wallstedt is a naturally good goaltending prospect already and the Wild have a unique opportunity to have him learn under one of the game’s all-time best in Fleury. It would be a surprise to see Minnesota move on from Gustavsson at this point in the offseason. Wallstedt could certainly play himself into a third-string position for Minnesota this season which could create quite the rotation between the pipes.

Montreal Canadiens

As the Canadiens look to rebound from a multi-year retooling effort the team has created quite a glut of potential on the blue line. Defensemen Mike Matheson and Kaiden Guhle already strike as long-term options on the back end but the team will need to piece together a defensive core with seven different options. It would be wise for Montreal to enter training camp with a very open mind for the defensive core outside of Matheson and Guhle.

This reasonably leaves five other spots available which will be filled out by prospects Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux, and David Reinbacher with David Savard, Arber Xhekaj, Jayden Struble, and Justin Barron left to pick from. All the options individually offer their unique skill set to the Canadiens’ blue line but they are another potentially active trade candidate heading into the season.

Pittsburgh Penguins

On the opposite side of the coin compared to the Canadiens; the Penguins will need to thin out their group of forwards heading into the regular season. Pittsburgh’s roster breakdown shows 14 forwards on the active roster with Emil Bemstrom and Jesse Puljujarvi in the minors according to PuckPedia. Rutger McGroarty and Drew O’Connor should be the main camp battle to who plays on the wing next to Sidney Crosby but the team’s bottom-six appears too saturated.

It should be a multi-tiered training camp battle as each player to pick from plays a different style of hockey. Depending on whether the Penguins want more scoring in the bottom-six or a more defensive-minded approach it will ultimately chart the trajectory of several players. Bemstrom, Puljujarvi, Lars Eller, Noel Acciari, Anthony Beauvillier, and Valtteri Puustinen all represent the notable talent who will compete for these spots once training camp begins in a few weeks.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues were originally thought to be a team looking to thin out their defensive core this offseason. The team instead brought in Ryan Suter, Philip Broberg, and Pierre-Olivier Joseph while only moving on from Marco Scandella. The team may be without defenseman Torey Krug for the entire regular season which opens up a spot on the left side of the defense but the team will ultimately have to cut the roster.

The choice will become less complicated if the team is without Krug for the regular season as the only battle of training camp will come down to Suter and Joseph as the team’s seventh defenseman. A roster spot hangs on the availability of Krug for the 2024-25 NHL season which makes for an interesting camp battle between several members of the Blues’ defensive core.

Blues Make Contracts Publicly Available

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  • Any previous user of the popular salary cap site, CapFriendly, won’t go without a similar medium for very long — if you’re a fan of the St. Louis Blues. The team announced it is coming out with its own version of the website named ’BluesFriendly’ that will track current player’s contract details, status, and pathway towards the organization. It’s not as in-depth as the information CapFriendly previously provided but it could serve a purpose for some parts of the fanbase. It’s unlikely that other teams will follow a similar route as salary transparency across the league normally only benefits a player while serving virtually no purpose to the team.

    [SOURCE LINK]

CHL Notes: Ritchie, Mrsic, Gardiner, Ekberg

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A blockbuster trade in the Western Hockey League got across the finish line today involving a pair of prospects taken in this year’s draft. The Medicine Hat Tigers have picked up Wild second-rounder Ryder Ritchie from the Prince Albert Raiders, per a team announcement, sending Blues fourth-rounder Tomas Mrsic and draft picks the other way.

Ritchie, who just turned 18 earlier this month, was a consensus late first/early second-round prospect but fell to Minnesota at No. 45. The 6’1″, 176-lb right-winger was the WHL’s Rookie of the Year in 2022-23 and continued to perform well last season without much of a supporting cast in Prince Albert. Injuries limited him to 47 games on the season, but he still showed out with 19 goals, 25 assists, 44 points, and a -1 rating. He closed out the campaign on a high note, scoring four goals and four assists in seven games while winning gold with Canada at the U18 World Juniors. In Medicine Hat, the Calgary native will likely star on a first line centered by 2024 fourth-overall pick Cayden Lindstrom and projected 2026 first-overall selection Gavin McKenna at left wing.

Mrsic isn’t an afterthought in this deal, though. The 6’0″, 170-lb sniper can play all three forward positions and went within his expected range to the Blues at No. 113. He fell just short of a point per game on a strong Tigers team last season, posting 23 goals and 39 assists for 62 points in 63 games – fourth on the team. Both players are likely due for another pair of seasons in juniors before turning pro with their respective NHL clubs in 2026-27.

Some other notable Canadian Hockey League moves today:

  • The Ontario Hockey League’s Barrie Colts continue to be a popular destination for Stars prospects this summer, today acquiring center Brad Gardiner from the Ottawa 67’s for a quartet of draft picks. Gardiner, 19, was a Dallas third-rounder in 2023 and had 49 points in 67 games with the 67’s last season. Barrie selected 2024 Stars first-round pick Emil Hemming in this year’s CHL Import Draft and got him inked to an agreement last month, bringing him over to juniors from his native Finland. A strong season with the Colts will be crucial for Gardiner, who risks becoming a free agent if the Stars don’t sign him by June 1, 2025.
  • The 67’s will replace some of Gardiner’s roles with top 2025 draft-eligible prospect Filip Ekberg, who the team confirmed today has signed a Scholarship and Development Agreement. Ekberg, 17, is a likely late first-round selection in next year’s draft after posting 29 points in 33 games last year in his native Sweden with Almtuna IS’ U20 club. The left winger stands at 5’10” and 168 lbs and won a bronze medal with Sweden at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup earlier this month.

Jordan Binnington Happy With Blues Recent Moves

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The Edmonton Oilers’ decision to let Philip Broberg go and to trade Cody Ceci has opened up a hole in their top four that Josh Wegman of The Score believes should be filled via trade before the NHL trade deadline. This week, the Oilers have been checking in on multiple veteran defensemen who remain free agents, but Wegman believes they will seek a better solution before the playoffs.

Wegman lists Marcus Pettersson, Jakob Chychrun, and Ivan Provorov as potential targets as all three men are pending unrestricted free agents. He also believes that the Oilers could look for a longer-term solution and seek a player with some years left on their contract such as  Mike Matheson, Connor Murphy, or Radko Gudas. The Oilers have been linked to former Oilers Tyson Barrie and Justin Schultz this week, as well as former Bruins defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. While all of those defensemen have had solid NHL careers, they are not great options for a Stanley Cup-contending team looking to round out their second defensive pairing.

In other Western Conference notes:

  • Jim Matheson of The Edmonton Journal doesn’t believe that defenseman Cody Ceci will remain in a San Jose Sharks uniform for very long. The recently traded defenseman has one year left on his current contract with a cap hit of $3.25MM and will likely be dealt to a contending team before next year’s NHL trade deadline. Ceci has never been an analytics darling and probably shouldn’t be a top-four defenseman on a contending team, but as a bottom-pairing defender, he could bring a lot of value to a team looking to add some experience to the backend of their lineup.
  • St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington was reportedly very happy with the recent moves made by Blues general manager Doug Armstrong (as per Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com). Binnington told Zeisberger that the successful offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg showed current Blues players that Armstrong had faith in the group, which will motivate the club as they head into training camp. Binnington added that the additions to the Blues should help make the team more competitive next season as they will be a faster group that is harder for opponents to play against.

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