Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Colorado.
Colorado Avalanche
Current Cap Hit: $85,993,750 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Nikolai Kovalenko (one year, $896K)
Potential Bonuses
Kovalenko: $57.5K
Kovalenko spent most of the first season of his contract in Russia before coming to North America for a brief stint in the minors plus a couple of playoff appearances with the Avs. Projected as a middle-six winger, his waiver exemption could work against him if Colorado is looking to bank early-season space but he should still be able to hit a good chunk of his games-played bonus. Between that and his limited experience thus far, he’s a safe bet for a short-term second contract. If he produces to expectations, that deal could approach the $2MM mark.
Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level
D Erik Brannstrom ($900K, RFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($800K, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Logan O’Connor ($1.05MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($775K, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Sam Malinski ($850K, RFA)
F Mikko Rantanen ($9.25MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($775K, UFA)
Rantanen is clearly the headliner on this list. The 27-year-old has become one of the top wingers in the NHL and is coming off his second straight season of more than 100 points. League-wide, only five players have more points than him over the last three seasons; three of those are making at least $2MM more than he is. New York’s Artemi Panarin is currently the winger with the highest AAV in NHL history; it stands to reason that Rantanen will be looking to at least pass that on his next agreement. His linemate (we’ll get to him shortly) probably sits as the benchmark that Colorado won’t want to clear but a max-term agreement around the $12MM mark per season is a definite possibility.
The decision for Drouin to take a cheap one-year deal with the Avs last summer to help rebuild some value worked as he had a career-best 56 points. However, his market was still fairly limited, which resulted in another one-year deal on the opening day of free agency. Perhaps a second strong year will bolster his market next time out. O’Connor was in the middle of a breakout performance last season and had a shot at 40 points. If he produces at a similar rate this season, he could triple his current AAV. Wagner and Kiviranta will battle for spots at the end of the roster and will get them or be beaten out by others at that price point. At this point in their careers, both players will be going year-to-year, likely on two-way deals like they have now.
Kylington didn’t appear to have a strong market in free agency, resulting in a pay cut as he’ll look to do like Drouin and rebuild some value. If he can establish himself as a full-timer after missing as much time as he has, he could at least double this next time out. Brannstrom was non-tendered by Ottawa and had to settle for a low-cost deal as well. He’ll be looking to do like Kylington but Colorado will have the ability to control him for another year, albeit with arbitration rights which could scare the Avs off from a qualifying offer. Malinski has primarily played in the minors but did well in limited action last season and is now waiver-eligible which could help keep him on the NHL roster. As for de Haan, he had a limited role with Tampa Bay last season and is likely going to remain close to the minimum salary moving forward.
Georgiev is one of the more intriguing pending UFA netminders. He has led the league in wins the last two seasons and led the NHL in minutes played in 2023-24. For someone making high-end backup money, that’s a strong return on their investment. However, his numbers were particularly mediocre after a solid performance the year before. That makes his next contract tough to project; if he’s closer to last season’s numbers, he might have a hard time commanding $5MM per season. But if he goes back to his 2022-23 performance, a contract starting with a six could be doable.
Signed Through 2025-26
G Justus Annunen ($837.5K, RFA)
F Parker Kelly ($825K, UFA)
D/F Jacob MacDonald ($775K, UFA)
D Josh Manson ($4.5MM, UFA)
Despite a bounce-back season, the Senators opted to non-tender Kelly to avoid the arbitration risk, sending him to the open market early. Even if he can’t put up 18 points again, if he can add grit to the fourth line and effectively kill penalties, he’ll have a much stronger market in 2026 in a more favorable cap environment.
Manson was able to stay healthy last season which is something that had been a challenge for him in previous years. Even so, he was fifth among Colorado blueliners in ATOI; this price tag for a high-end third-pairing player is on the high side. Unless he stays healthy the next two years and can move into a top-four role, he’ll be hard-pressed to make this on his next contract. MacDonald returns for a second stint in the organization but with the extra blueliners they’ve brought in since then, his best shot to stick might be as a forward.
Annunen split last season between the NHL and AHL and will now get his first full NHL campaign. He performed quite well in limited duty with the Avs last season and if he can push to take over as the starter by the time this deal is up, he will be in line for a significant raise with arbitration eligibility.
Signed Through 2026-27
F Ross Colton ($4MM, UFA)
D Samuel Girard ($5MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Cale Makar ($9MM, UFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($5.75MM, UFA)
Mittelstadt came over at the trade deadline from Buffalo in one of the biggest swaps of the season, one that saw Bowen Byram go the other way. However, it was a bit surprising that Colorado opted for this contract, one that only bought them one more year of club control although it kept the AAV at a more manageable rate. He’ll need to take another step forward offensively and get closer to at least the 65-70-point mark to break into that next salary tier which would start around $7MM.
Lehkonen’s acquisition from Montreal has sparked another offensive level although he has battled injuries the last two seasons. If he can keep producing at a 60-point pace while playing a strong defensive game, he should be able to add a couple million to his next contract. At $4MM, Colton is a bit expensive for a third center but he is coming off a career season offensively so it’s a luxury they’ve decided they can still afford for now. If he holds around the 40-point mark, he could land similar money next time out.
Makar set new personal bests in assists and points last season while being a Norris finalist for the fourth straight year. It’s not very often that a player making $9MM could be viewed as a team-friendly bargain but that is the case here. At this point, there’s little reason to think that he won’t be setting a record-breaking agreement for a defenseman, surpassing Erik Karlsson’s $11.5MM AAV on his next contract. Girard missed time due to injury and a month in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and in between, he found his minutes dropped to the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year. That said, he’s still a legitimate top-four defender. His smaller stature will hurt him but if he can get back to the level he played at in 2021-22 and 2022-23, he could land at least a small raise.
