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2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Fourth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Here are the results of the redraft so far, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (1)
2nd Overall: Jamie Benn, Philadelphia Flyers (129)
3rd Overall: P.K. Subban, Phoenix Coyotes (43)

Even though Kane held onto his top spot this redraft is already extremely different than how it actually went down. Two players from outside the first round have jumped up with Subban moving 40 spots. The Toronto native was a dynamic defenseman for the Belleville Bulls in 2007, coming off a 56-point campaign putting him fifth in team scoring among a group that included future NHL players like Shawn Matthias and Matt Beleskey. Subban’s puck-carrying nature was divisive even then, leading to a ranking of 102nd among North American skaters according to NHL Central Scouting.

You could conclude that the Canadiens reached to pick Subban in the second round given that ranking, but his infectious personality was immediately embraced by Montreal fans—especially because he had grown up one himself, despite being from Toronto. Subban would return to the Bulls in 2007-08 but made the World Junior team as the extra defenseman. In 2008-09 he would return to the tournament in a much bigger role and give everyone a glimpse of exactly what was coming. He led the tournament in points from a defenseman, was named to the tournament All-Star team and took home his second gold medal.

An NHL career followed soon after one year in the AHL, and Subban never looked back. An immediate presence on the Montreal blueline he would win a Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman in just his third season (though it was the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign). In 434 games for the Canadiens he registered 278 points, but would find himself traded on a day that lives in hockey infamy. On June 29th 2016 in the span of what felt like just a few minutes, Subban was traded for Shea Weber, Taylor Hall was traded for Adam Larsson and Steven Stamkos decided free agency wasn’t for him and re-signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning. In a new career chapter in Nashville, Subban would once again become a Norris finalist and help the team to the Stanley Cup Final. This spring everything changed once again however, with Subban shipped off to the New Jersey Devils in a cap-saving move.

The 30-year old Subban leads all defensemen from the 2007 draft with 408 points and has been a legitimate top-pairing player for years. He comes in at No. 3.

After Phoenix came the Los Angeles Kings back in 2007 and though they too went off the board to pick a defenseman, it unfortunately wasn’t Subban. Instead the Kings picked Seattle Thunderbirds defenseman Thomas Hickey, who was coming off an impressive campaign in the WHL but was not nearly the highest-ranked blueliner on the board. Hickey was listed 26th among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting behind other names like Karl Alzner and Ryan McDonagh, though there were several defensemen ahead of him on that list that barely scraped their way into the NHL at all.

That’s not the case for Hickey, who while not living up to his draft pedigree is still an effective enough player for the New York Islanders. The Islanders actually acquired Hickey off waivers from the Kings after he failed to crack the NHL lineup and was passed over on the depth chart by young defensemen like Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Slava Voynov. He has ended up playing in 449 NHL games for New York, recording 115 points.

Those numbers aren’t exactly what you want from fourth overall, meaning Hickey clearly won’t be the choice here in our redraft. The Kings would certainly like another chance to pick someone from the rest of the group.

With the fourth pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Los Angeles Kings select? Cast your vote below!

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*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL. He has not been included in this vote.

Poll: Who Are The Best Centers In The NHL?

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NHL Network certainly knows how to throw the hockey world into a tizzy when it comes to ranking the best players in the league. Last night the network revealed their annual list of the Top-20 Centers in the NHL and once again Connor McDavid found himself edging out Sidney Crosby in the top two spots. Last season’s bronze recipient Evgeni Malkin fell all the way to #13 however, allowing Colorado Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon to jump a couple of spots up the list.

The Pittsburgh Penguins (Crosby, Malkin), Toronto Maple Leafs (John Tavares, Auston Matthews), Tampa Bay Lightning (Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point) and Washington Capitals (Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom) all have a pair of names on the list, giving the group a very Eastern Conference flavor. Despite Jonathan Toews’ resurgence in 2018-19 he was left off the list again along with potential snubs like Sean Couturier, Dylan Larkin and Mathew Barzal among many others.

Like last year, when our community actually crowned Crosby as top dog, we thought we’d do our own tally here at PHR. In the poll below we’ve listed many options and are asking you to vote for your top group by selecting 10 names. Do Stamkos and Tavares stay ahead of their younger teammates? Will Malkin get back into the top 10? Can Elias Pettersson climb even higher? Cast your votes below and make sure to leave a comment explaining your choices.

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Though Leon Draisaitl was included in the 2018 list, his absence suggests that the NHL Network considered him a winger this season. The same can be said about other part-time centers that haven’t been included in the poll above. The list is not exhaustive, and write-in votes are encouraged in the comment section.

2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Third Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Starting this week, we’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Here are the results of the redraft so far, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (1)
2nd Overall: Jamie Benn, Philadelphia Flyers (129)

Already Benn has made one of the biggest jumps in any of the three years we’ve covered in this series. The Dallas Stars captain had only played a single year of junior hockey in the BCHL when he was picked in 2007, but immediately made the Stars look like geniuses thereafter. A dominating power forward for the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL the following two seasons, Benn would step right into the NHL in 2009 and never really look back. Scoring 22 goals and 41 points as a rookie he would finish seventh in Calder Trophy voting, actually four spots ahead of James van Riemsdyk who was the real second overall pick.

Benn has scored at least 22 goals in every season of his career save for the lockout-shortened 2012-13. He reached his peak on offense a few years ago when he recorded 41 goals and 89 points in 2015-16, establishing himself as a star in the league and earning an eight-year, $76MM extension to stay with Dallas for the majority of his career. Second among all 2007 draftees in goals and points, it’s easy to see why the voters took him ahead of the other available names.

Third overall in 2007 belonged to the Phoenix Coyotes, who must have seen Benn up close at some point but decided that Kyle Turris was the BCHL star they wanted. The British Columbia native had just put up 66 goals in 53 games for the Burnaby Express, leading the league by 15 (though he actually lost the overall scoring title to undrafted Tyler Bozak). Turris looked like a lock as a future first-line center, but unfortunately things didn’t go quite that smoothly in Arizona.

After a year at the University of Wisconsin, Turris decided to sign with the Coyotes but things wouldn’t last in the desert. After a few years bouncing back and forth from the minor leagues, Turris sat out the beginning of the 2011-12 season as a restricted free agent to try and force a trade but eventually would decide playing hockey was better for his career. After just six games with the Coyotes that season however, Turris was shipped to the Ottawa Senators. He would become an excellent player when given the minutes in Ottawa, but in 2017-18 he was flipped again when the Senators got a chance at Matt Duchene.

While Turris has been a fine player, he is coming off a terrible year with the Nashville Predators and ranks 11th in scoring from the 2007 draft. Certainly not a bust if you take his whole career into account, but you can bet the Coyotes would have liked a different player if they could do it all over again.

With the third pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Philadelphia Flyers select? Cast your vote below!

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*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL. He has not been included in this vote.

2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Starting this week, we’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

On Monday we asked the PHR community to weigh in on who should have been selected first overall in 2007 and after more than 2,100 votes (and probably even before that) the decision is clear. Though he didn’t get quite the 88% that Sidney Crosby came away with for the top honor from our 2005 redraft series, Patrick Kane was still the obvious choice to retain his top spot. Kane earned more than 85% of the votes with no other player earning even 4%. That certainly makes the decision for second a mystery, one that we’ll look at today.

Back in 2007, the Philadelphia Flyers held the second overall pick and decided to take a powerhouse winger from just a couple of hours up the road. Middleton, New Jersey native James van Riemsdyk had been a top prospect for years, though he had had gone a different route than fellow American-born winger Kane. While Kane decided to take his talents to the OHL in his draft year and play for the London Knights, van Riemsdyk stayed with the USNTDP and suited up with future NHL names like Colin Wilson, Jimmy Hayes and Kevin Shattenkirk. The young forward had been committed to the University of New Hampshire for years and wouldn’t join the Flyers organization for another two seasons.

When he did, it took him no time at all to make an impression. Jumping straight to the NHL in the 2009-10 season, van Riemsdyk recorded 15 goals and 35 points in his rookie campaign but finished 11th in Calder Trophy voting—the award went to Tyler Myers, who put up 48 points as a rookie defenseman for the Buffalo Sabres, a total he has never matched. van Riemsdyk was an obvious talent and would record his first 20-goal season the following year, but after a disappointing 43-game season in 2011-12 he found himself on the way to the Toronto Maple Leafs by way of trade. The Flyers would receive 2008 fifth-overall pick Luke Schenn, who had stepped directly into the NHL and was seen as a potential star shutdown defender.

Things didn’t quite work out that way for Schenn, but van Riemsdyk quickly morphed into a top goal-scoring threat for the Maple Leafs. In six years with Toronto the winger recorded 154 goals in 413 games, topping out with 36 in 2017-18. He found his way back to Philadelphia as a free agent last summer, and put up another 27-goal effort in just 66 games. In all, van Riemsdyk ranks sixth among 2007 draftees with 228 goals in his 675-game career and looks like he still has several years of top productivity left. While he hasn’t been the superstar that Kane turned into, he certainly wasn’t a bust with the second overall pick.

That doesn’t mean he was the best available pick though.

With the second pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Philadelphia Flyers select? Cast your vote below!

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*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL. He has not been included in this vote.

2007 NHL Draft Take Two: First Overall Pick

at CDT | by 10 Comments

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

In the fall of 2016, PHR ran a series where fans were able to choose the order in which picks should have been selected during the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. While Sidney Crosby was still the obvious choice for first overall, there was huge turnover for the rest of the first round. Last summer we repeated the process for the 2006 draft, which moved Jonathan Toews up two spots to first overall and Erik Johnson all the way down to ninth among other changes.

This time around we’ll be looking at the 2007 draft which featured two American-born wingers headline an impressive offensive group. Five players from the first round never did make it to the NHL*, while four others would play fewer than 100 games. There was plenty of talent near the top of the 2007 class as well as a future captain who was passed over multiple times by the entire league. Now with the benefit of hindsight he’s surely going to be put up where he belongs.

Over the next month as we wait for training camp to begin, we’ll be going through the entire 2007 NHL Entry Draft to have the PHR community select who they would have picked knowing the result of the player’s career. We’ll include a list of players to vote for, and update the first round as it progresses. While 2006 actually had some discussion over who would be first overall, this year seems pretty cut and dry.

The Chicago Blackhawks had the first pick 12 years ago and didn’t make a mistake, choosing Patrick Kane after the undersized winger put up 176 points in 74 games for the London Knights of the OHL. Kane had some of the finest puck skills the league had ever seen, and was a lock to be an elite offensive producer at the next level. Now 30, the Blackhawks winger has been a superstar for more than a decade and will likely crack the 1,000 point mark during the 2019-20 campaign. He’s coming off a career-best 110 points and shows no sign of slowing down. The Blackhawks turned Toews and Kane into a Stanley Cup core and wouldn’t change a thing, but is he still the top choice looking back?

With the first pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Chicago Blackhawks select? Cast your vote below!

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*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL. He has not been included in this vote.

Poll: Which Teams Would Be On Your No-Trade List?

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Every year more than 100 NHL players submit no-trade lists of one kind or another. Whether it is a list of teams they would be willing to go to, or a list that they very much would not, many of the league’s best players get a chance to have some say in where they end up. Sometimes a no-trade list will include teams that would be the most likely to be interested, giving the player final say. But other times it is just a personal preference of markets or organizations that they would or wouldn’t want to be a part of.

Former Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev for instance holds a 10-team no-trade list now that he is into his unrestricted free agent seasons, and had to waive it in order to accept a trade to the Ottawa Senators earlier this offseason. Zaitsev spoke with Igor Eronko of Sport-Express, explaining that his list included the Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Detroit Red Wings and “two more.” Obviously that includes every other Canadian team, though it’s not clear if that is because of the culture or just the situations each team is in.

Moving from a non-traditional hockey market to a place like Toronto or Montreal might be jarring for many players, but those same places might be quite appealing to others. New York and Los Angeles are hot destinations in many industries, but also may not interest people not so many years removed from small town living. State tax rates might come into account for the financially savvy, while team success could be the deciding factor for others. There are countless reasons to how no-trade lists are formed.

So what teams would be on your list? We’ll run this experiment with the same 10-team no-trade list that Zaitsev has. Choose the teams you would block a move to and make sure to explain your decisions in the comments.

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Poll: Is Tyson Barrie A Significant Upgrade Over Jake Gardiner?

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While most people look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Tyson Barrie as a major plus when the team picked up the lead defenseman and Alex Kerfoot for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen on July 1, there are other analytics experts who suggest that the addition of Barrie isn’t much, if any improvements over Jake Gardiner, who the team has allowed to walk away in free agency.

Of course, Barrie looks like an impressive upgrade, especially when you look at his offensive numbers. Barrie scored 14 goals and 59 points last season and posted 57 points the previous year, giving Toronto another top-notch offensive defenseman next to Morgan Rielly. Gardiner was a second-pairing defenseman whose offense disappeared last year with 30 points, even though he posted 52 points the previous season. However, only one player, Barrie or Rielly, can get those first-line power play minutes and there is no guarantee that Barrie will be able to pry those minutes away from Rielly next season, suggesting that Barrie’s number’s could drop quite a bit. In fact, two goals and 23 assists came off the power play last season where Barrie was the team’s quarterback of the first power play unit.

However, analytics suggest that Gardiner, despite his struggles might prove to be a better blueliner, especially defensively. While Toronto is an offensive juggernaut, Gardiner still had a plus-19 rating in plus-minus, while there are some questions about how good a defender Barrie is. In Colorado, Barrie posted a minus-3 on an Avalanche squad that made the playoffs last season and a minus-19 the previous year, when they were a playoff team as well. While plus-minus might be considered to be an unreliable fact, Gardiner has been solid for Toronto despite the fact receiving Toronto fans wrath for years. He has averaged over 21:48 of ATOI over the past three years and in those three years ranks 23rd in the league in points with 125. In goals above replacement (GAR), which is an all-encompassing stat to evaluate skaters, Gardiner ranked 17th among defenseman last year and fifth in the league at even strength, according to evolving-hockey.com. Barrie ranked 50th last season and 66th at even strength.

However, Gardiner’s value seems to have dropped. Despite being considered one of the top defensive free agents on the unrestricted free agent market, Gardiner remains unsigned with rumors he’s seeking $7MM per season. While a change in scenery might have been needed for Gardiner, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Barrie will be the better player.

So, is Barrie a significant upgrade over Gardiner?

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Poll: Which UFA Contract Will Look The Worst Next Year?

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When July 1st rolls around every year, excitement around the NHL goes through the roof. Top players are available for nothing but money and fans want their favorite team to shell out the dollars and cents to improve the club. Unfortunately, the deals that are made on the unrestricted free agent market are so often flawed and doomed to fail. Teams overpay for over-the-hill veterans or lock up players already in their prime for far too long. Former NHL GM Brian Burke has long held the belief that more mistakes are made on the first day of free agency than any other.

Every year we get a reminder of just how tricky the free agent market is. In 2017 we saw players like Karl Alzner (five years, $23.1MM), Patrick Marleau (three years, $18.8MM) and Kevin Shattenkirk (four years, $26.6MM) all sign contracts that would be regretted down the road. Alzner has spent time in the minors after clearing waivers, Marleau has already been bought out of the last year of his deal and Shattenkirk could potentially face the same fate later this summer if the New York Rangers are desperate for cap space.

Just one year after the 2018 frenzy and there are already several deals that look like mistakes. Jack Johnson’s long-term deal (five years, $16.3MM) has Pittsburgh Penguins fans shaking their heads, while the Calgary Flames can’t find a spot for James Neal (five years, $28.8MM). Ilya Kovalchuk (three years, $18.8MM) looks like a shadow of what he once was.

Given the history of failure in this period, you can only assume that there will be teams deeply regretting things they did just a few days ago. Even just a year from now they might be trying to buy out some of the contracts they signed, or shipping them somewhere else to free up room. Which will be the worst? Which contract will be so unbearable a year from now that fans will be hollering for its removal? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave a comment explaining why:

Only contracts signed July 1, 2019 have been included

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Poll: Where Will Jake Gardiner Sign?

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Usually, within the first few days of free agency, the majority of the top players are off the market.  It’s rare that one of the top players at a particular position is still available but that’s the case when it comes to defenseman Jake Gardiner.

The 29-year-old was slotted sixth in our Top 50 UFA Rankings with a projection to have the highest AAV of any blueliner to actually make it to the open market.  That could certainly still happen but so far, there haven’t been many teams linked to him.

There are likely a couple of reasons for that.  For starters, the back injury that caused him to miss some time is something that teams will be leery about when considering whether or not to commit a long-term deal to him.  On top of that, he’s also coming off a quieter year offensively as he scored just three goals in 62 games while his 0.48 point per game average was his lowest in three years.

Nonetheless, he remains the only defenseman still out there that is basically a lock to play in a top-four role next season.  There are quite a few teams that still have a vacancy to fill in that slot as well but at this point, it’s reasonable to infer that his market isn’t quite as bullish as it was thought to be just a few days ago.  It has been suggested previously that he’d like to return to Toronto but given their movement so far this offseason and what’s still to come, that doesn’t appear to be a likely outcome even if his asking price comes down.

There are now two important questions when it comes to Gardiner.  How much has his stock dropped and where will he wind up signing?  Have your say on the latter of the two by choosing where you think he will sign by voting in the poll below.

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Poll: What Should The Stars Do With Valeri Nichushkin?

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Valeri Nichushkin’s time with Dallas has certainly been a bumpy road, to say the least.  After being the tenth overall pick in 2013, he made an immediate impact that season, posting 34 points in 79 games and it looked like the Stars had a top-six power forward in the making.  However, things have only gone downhill from there.

Injuries marred his sophomore season while he only had nine goals and 29 points in his third season while seeing his ice time drop.  Nichushkin’s frustration with his role ultimately led him to go back to Russia for two years with CSKA Moscow of the KHL.  He didn’t exactly light it up over there but he did play relatively well and did enough to earn a two-year, $5.9MM deal from Dallas last offseason.

While the hopes that he could be a top liner were gone, the hope was that he could provide the Stars with some much needed secondary scoring for 2018-19.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, he managed to go the entire season without scoring a single goal, recording just ten assists in 57 games.  While he had a few minor injuries over the year, he also spent a lot of time as a healthy scratch.  That’s certainly not what anyone was expecting from him and isn’t anywhere close to enough production for his $2.95MM price tag.

GM Jim Nill is now faced with a decision that a year ago would nearly seem unfathomable considering that they waited two years to get him back in Dallas.  Is it time for the Stars to part ways with Nichushkin?

As the winger is only 24, his buyout cost is considerably cheaper than the standard two-thirds cost.  The team would only be responsible for covering one-third of his deal, meaning that he’d only count against their salary cap for $700K for next season and $450K for 2020-21.  That would free up more than $2MM in cap room for 2019-20 and the Stars could certainly find someone that could be more productive than what Nichushkin brought to the table for that price tag.  u

On the other hand, there’s no denying that he still has some upside.  Sure, he’s probably not going to be a top scorer in the NHL but physicality with a bit of offensive punch still carries a lot of value around the league.  Giving up on Nichushkin so quickly (via buyout or trade) could be a decision that they come to regret down the road.

What should the Stars do with Nichushkin?  Have your say by voting in the poll below.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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