PHR Mailbag

2018 is almost here and with it will be the countdown to the NHL trade deadline. With teams starting to distance themselves at either end of the playoff race, more and more rumors will surface about rental players and rebuilds. Here’s your chance to ask our very own Brian La Rose about whatever you think your team should do!

Brian will be answering the mailbag on the weekend, but be sure to submit your questions now! Leave a comment below or tweet at @prohockeyrumors using the #PHRMailbag.

Make sure to read our last mailbag, where Brian went in depth on the Kyle Turris–Matt Duchene deal—he knew right away it wasn’t the greatest trade for the Ottawa Senators.

The three-way trade between the Avalanche, Predators, and Senators made headlines across the league and was a popular topic in this edition of the mailbag, which also features questions about Vegas, St. Louis, and Arizona.

ducksfan: If the Knights make the playoffs what moves do they make at the deadline if any to make sure they don’t hurt their future?

I have to admit, I didn’t expect the Golden Knights to even be in the race at this point, especially with the calamity between the pipes.  If they can hold on to a playoff spot by the trade deadline, it’s really going to change the expected trade landscape as all of a sudden, there will be strong cases for GM George McPhee to hold on to at least some of their prominent rental players.  That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if they still did at least a bit of selling and take the long-term view.  At the very least, they should still be able to sell off some of their defensive depth for some late-round picks or prospects as teams look to shore up their depth chart in case of injury regardless of where they are in the standings.

Assuming they don’t want to move their primary rentals, they have some opportunities to improve their roster without leveraging their future.  They’re projected to have the ability to add more than $35MM in full-season cap hits at the deadline per CapFriendly which gives them the chance to take a cap dump or two while upgrading their roster at the same time.  It also allows them to retain salary to make a deal which would help facilitate a Jason Garrison trade.  I could also see them parting with a player like Brendan Leipsic or Tomas Nosek who are still somewhat young but aren’t likely key cogs over the long haul.  They could maybe dangle one of those for a rental piece to help in their playoff push as well.  It isn’t crazy to think that they could buy and sell to still give themselves some assets for the future while staying in the hunt.

@Raysworld63: How much better is the Predators with Turris? With Bonino back and Ellis returning soon will they make playoffs? #PHRMailbag

Kyle Turris really strengthens Nashville’s depth down the middle while pushing Nick Bonino into a third line spot which is where he’s at his best in more of an exploitative role like he was back in Pittsburgh.  That’s a great spot to be in, especially with Ryan Johansen as their top center (he’s not going to struggle like this all season).

Teams with high-quality center depth and great defense are often contenders for strong postseason pushes.  The Preds find themselves in a playoff spot already without having Ryan Ellis all year, with Johansen struggling to score, and without Turris for all but a few games.  They’re a pretty safe bet to get to the postseason barring a slew of Anaheim-like injuries.

Connorsoxfan: Who won the Duchene/Turris mega deal?

I really like the deal for Nashville.  I touched on them a bit with the last question so I won’t add too much here.  They added a legitimate top-six center on a good contract and while Samuel Girard is going to be a good player, their defensive depth made it so that they could move him.  With that group down the middle, they’re in good shape for a long time.

I also think Colorado made out quite well.  While quantity doesn’t always equal quality, GM Joe Sakic got a good mix of intriguing prospects (Girard already looks like a great fit) and draft picks.  It’s not as if they had any hopes of possibly re-signing Matt Duchene so it made sense to get whatever they could and they sure got a lot.  Not all of the players and picks will pan out but they should land two or three solid pieces at a minimum out of that package and that’s pretty good for a disgruntled player who had been underachieving in recent years.

I’m not as bullish about the trade for Ottawa.  They get an extra year of team control with Duchene being signed longer than Turris and it doesn’t sound like Turris signing an extension with the Sens was likely to happen.  However, to give up a player that has similar value, a first-round pick, a player just taken with a first rounder, and a third rounder for that extra year of control seems too steep to me.  Clearly, they’re banking on Duchene having a resurgence now since he’ll be happier in a new environment and that they’ll have a legitimate shot at keeping him when his contract is up.  If those two things happen, Ottawa will come out better in the trade in the end but we’re still a long way from finding out if either will occur.

cardzcrazy: Will Armstrong make a trade to shore up the Blues 3rd line or call someone up? Berglund will help but Kane would be a great fit on the 2nd line and push Sobotka to the 3rd line.

It sounds like Patrik Berglund is getting pretty close to returning and after a career season in 2016-17, they’ll probably slide him into the 3C role and see if he can pick up where he left off.  If he gets going early, it wouldn’t be surprising if he and Vladimir Sobotka eventually flipped places in an effort to give that top-six another scoring option.

Cap space isn’t something St. Louis has much in the way of right now and once Berglund comes off long-term injury reserve, they won’t have much room on that end either, just the salaries of Robby Fabbri and Zach Sanford (with the latter expected to return at some point as well).  As a result, they’re not going to have the money to really make a trade at this time unless they’re sending a similarly-priced player out.  Adding another top-six option will certainly be something that they will want to do but it may have to come closer to the trade deadline where other teams may be more willing to retain salary to facilitate a deal.

Mark Black: What impact does John Chayka’s GM tenure have on teams looking to take a non-traditional approach in the future? And what is one take back move he’d love to have?

It certainly hasn’t been pretty in Arizona lately, especially with their dreadful start to this season.  That said, I don’t think their results under Chayka would have much of an impact around the league at this point.

There’s a major qualifier when it comes to any small-market team and that’s the budget.  Arizona typically has a spending budget right at the minimum salary.  It’s hard to win with that no matter who is running the show.  Take their roster and add two or three impact veterans to it and the outlook on their season probably is a lot different already.  There is a solid core of young players on the Coyotes and Chayka has done some nice moves to leverage their payroll room into getting some other assets.

There has been a rapid shift in analytics in recent years and it’s safe to say that it’s here to stay.  Even if Arizona’s struggles continue for a few years now and Chayka gets let go, there are going to be other teams that will want to try to defy conventional wisdom and go this route.  They’ll claim that their analytics department and proprietary numbers/algorithms will be better and more advanced at that time than Arizona’s is now and considering how far this side of the game has come lately, it will probably be true.

As for which trade he’d like to take back, I’d have to think last summer’s deal with the Rangers for Derek Stepan (and Antti Raanta) for the seventh-overall pick (plus Anthony DeAngelo) would be the one.  That’s the type of trade a team makes when they’re ready to take that big step forward and move towards contention.  Clearly, their young core isn’t far enough along in their development as Chayka believed as they’re just not ready to really push for a playoff spot yet let alone be a contender.  That was a trade that was done a year or two too early.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

More than a month of the season is over, and the league is full of surprises. The Kings, Golden Knights and Sharks lead the Pacific Division, while the Wild, Oilers and Ducks struggle to even keep their heads above water in the Western Conference. With surprises usually come questions, so we’re back with another mailbag to answer anything you’ve got. You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.

Be sure to check back this weekend when our mailbag is posted. You can check out the last mailbag right here.

The season is just a few weeks old, but already we’ve had some huge injuries, big trades and a few questionable lineup decisions. With that in mind, submit your question to our mailbag and have our Brian La Rose answer it on Saturday! Is the Matt Duchene saga ever going to end? What do the Montreal Canadiens do to turn their season around? Are the Vegas Golden Knights for real? You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.

Be sure to check back on Saturday when the answers are posted. You can check out the last mailbag right here, where Brian answered questions about John Tavares, Kris Letang, and the coaching hot seat.

Over the last few days, we’ve taken your mailbag questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag and on the site via the comments feature. Here are the inquiries for this edition of the mailbag:

mcase7187: Could the Bruins put a package together of Pastrnak, Carlo and few others for Tavares?

Short of John Tavares calling a press conference and announcing that there’s no way he’s re-signing with the Islanders, he’s not going to be moved at this time.  (Even if that did happen, I could still see them waiting in the hopes that he changes his mind.)

While I wouldn’t go as far as saying Boston wouldn’t have much of a need for Tavares, they’d need him a lot less than other teams.  They have Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes (a natural center) all signed for at least the next four seasons at a little over $20MM combined.  They’re all older players but it would be a challenge on the cap to add an even bigger contract to that group without moving one of them in a deal for Tavares or some other trade.

As for the offer itself, that’s pretty good value.  David Pastrnak has emerged as a quality top line winger while Brandon Carlo has a long future ahead of him on the back end.  Having those players as part of a trade for Tavares would certainly yield a quality return for the Islanders.  I just don’t think Boston would be one of the many teams that would be highly interested in his services if Tavares were to ever be made available, at least to the extent of making the top offer to get him.

@dodgerskingsfan: Who do you think will make the Kings roster?

Right now, Los Angeles is tied for the most players attending camp on tryouts with Florida. Forwards Brandon Prust and Andrei Loktionov are there while Chris Lee will get a look on the back end.

I have a hard time envisioning Prust or Loktionov making the team.  Prust struggled to keep up a couple of years ago and isn’t exactly coming off of a great performance in the German League.  Maybe they ask to keep him around as a 13th forward but that’s about it.  Loktionov didn’t fare well in his last NHL stint either and hasn’t lit it up in the KHL since then.  I think they’d rather give players like Adrian Kempe and Jonny Brodzinski longer looks as things stand although I wouldn’t be shocked if they add a more prominent forward to their list of invitees in the next couple of weeks.

As for Lee, I think he has a good chance to make it.  He’ll be battling the likes of Christian Folin, Kevin Gravel, and Paul Ladue for the last couple of spots on the roster and none of those players have really established themselves yet as full-time NHL players.  Gravel and Ladue are waiver exempt so if Lee even plays at a comparable level in training camp, they could sign him and opt to have one of their youngsters start in the minors as depth.  Not only would it be a great story (a player finally making it to the NHL at 37) but Lee could give them an offensive boost that the others probably aren’t able to provide.  Unless they bring someone else in over the next month, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lee breaks camp with the Kings.

acarneglia: Which Eastern Conference coach would be most likely to be fired for failing to make the playoffs or not making a deep run?

Barry Trotz in Washington immediately springs to mind here.  The Capitals have underachieved in the postseason under his watch and although they’ve kept the core intact, the Metropolitan Division is still going to be a gauntlet to get through.  It’s also worth noting that he’s entering the final year of his contract this season and it certainly doesn’t sound like any extension is on the horizon.  Back in June, GM Brian MacLellan told reporters, including Matthew Paras of The Washington Times, that extension talks won’t occur until there is evidence of improvement.  Considering they’ve won the last two Presidents’ Trophies, the improvement he’s seeking is in the playoffs so if they don’t go far, I could see Trotz being let go (and getting scooped up pretty quickly after).

On the other side (missing the playoffs), Bill Peters in Carolina has failed to lead them to the postseason for three straight years so if that happens again, a change could be made.  That said, that division is going to be tough for them to crack the top three so a Wild Card berth is probably the best they can do realistically.  I could also see Jeff Blashill in Detroit at least being on the hot seat if they miss out; while on the outside it looks like they’re in need of some sort of rebuild (or at least a retooling), the fact that they haven’t done so suggests that they think they can get back into the playoffs this season.  If they miss, they’ll have failed to win a playoff round in three years with Blashill at the helm which might be enough to change things up there.

@EcFoss1214: If Kris Letang can’t stay healthy this season do the Pens finally try to find a deal for him?

This one is a bit of a double-edged sword.  While it could certainly make them more open to moving Letang, it would also make him that much less desirable to other teams considering his lengthy injury past (which includes a neck injury, a heart ailment, a groin issue, plus multiple other upper and lower body injuries over just the past three seasons).

There’s no denying that when Letang is healthy, he’s among the elite offensive defensemen in the NHL.  But if he misses a bunch of time due to injuries again in 2017-18, it will become fair to question whether he’s damaged goods at that point.  Considering he’ll still have four years with a $7.25MM cap hit left after this season, other teams won’t be offering up much value to take on that much risk even with the upside (his production when healthy) being as high as it is.  In all honesty, another season with injury issues probably solidifies his spot with Pittsburgh more than it would make him a more likely trade candidate.

AshevilleCanesFan: When calculating power play and penalty stats, are all penalties considered, or only when they are the full 2 minutes? For example, if team A gets a power play, but 20 seconds later gets called for a penalty, would they be 0 for 1 on the power play if they failed to score in those first 20 seconds of power play time? And would the 20 seconds that team B would have (after killing the initial penalty) count toward the stats?

Anything that actually results in a man advantage, whether it’s for two minutes or two seconds, counts towards calculated power play and penalty kill percentages which isn’t exactly the most accurate way to assess their real success rate.  So yes, in your scenario, both teams would be 0-for-1 on the power play despite not getting much real time to work with.

A few years ago, the odd broadcast would show a different power play stat that was more of a ratio, one goal for every x amount of time spent with the man advantage but that hasn’t picked up steam with some of the newer statistics.  I wouldn’t mind seeing that change as while the percentages may be easier to interpret, the ratio is a more accurate way of seeing what the actual success rate of a team is.  It’s also something that could be adapted to more properly assess the true numbers of a penalty kill as well.  There’s a big push out there for more accurate metrics and this is one that certainly hasn’t received a lot of attention over the years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hockey is almost here and players are already arriving to start their on-ice workouts. Arenas across the country will start to fill as thirty-one teams attempt to take home the Stanley Cup. With the season fast approaching, submit your question to our mailbag and have our Brian La Rose answer it on Monday! What’s going to happen with Matt Duchene? Who is this Danis Zaripov? What’s the chance your team makes the playoffs? You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.

Be sure to check back on Monday when our mailbag is posted. You can check out the last mailbag right here.

Over the last few days, we’ve taken your mailbag questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag and on the site via the comments feature. Here are the inquiries for this edition of the mailbag:

nvalasco: What does SJ do now that they lost Marleau? They already struggled to score last year, & now lost a 20-30 goal scorer. Unless Hertl takes that next step we’re waiting for, how big of a step back do they take?

I have to admit, I’m really surprised by San Jose’s lack of offseason activity, particularly with regards to not really replacing Patrick Marleau.  They’re banking on a healthy Tomas Hertl picking up some of the slack and a full season of Jannik Hansen will certainly help.  Mikkel Boedker is due for somewhat of a bounce back campaign as well.  Those three will help offset some of the lost production but if the goal is to try to improve, I don’t think they’ve done that.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re waiting out the UFA market for one more winger; Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr come to mind as players who could still help for a year while serving as a bridge to youngsters like Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc.  The team clearly has confidence in their youngsters but it never hurts to have a capable insurance policy in place.

Even if they don’t make further moves, I don’t think they’re in too much jeopardy of taking a major step back.  Vegas isn’t going to be a playoff contender and neither are Arizona and Vancouver.  Right off the bat, their worst case scenario is maybe just falling short of a Wild Card spot as they’re not going to be any worse than fifth in the division.  The Sharks aren’t likely to contend for a division title in 2017-18 but they should still be in the think of the playoff race, either for the last guaranteed Pacific spot or one of the Wild Cards.

Harry Goldman: If The NHLPA Opts Out Of CBA After The 2019-20 Season, Do You Think There Will Be A Lockout? If “YES” How Long?

I think you’re being generous classifying this as if and not when the NHLPA opts out as things currently stand.  Between the rapidly escalating escrow situation and the Olympic snafu, it’s going to happen.  Unfortunately, considering the last two CBA talks have resulted in lockouts, there’s a good chance there will be another one when that time comes.

As for how long it will be, a lot will depend on whether the two sides are going to be looking to change the 50/50 split (at least on paper) of hockey related revenue, or HRR.  If they agree to keep it as is, that’s one big element that will be out of the equation that was there before.  That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are discussions as to how to redefine or reclassify certain parts of HRR that could complicate things a bit even if they keep the current split intact.

In terms of other stuff that will be on the table, escrow and the Olympics will undoubtedly be areas that the NHLPA will want addressed while it wouldn’t be surprising to see the league try to put caps on no-trade or no-move clauses, term limits, and maybe even restricting the amount of signing bonuses permitted in a standard contract on the table to avoid contracts like the ones that Carey Price and Connor McDavid, among others, have signed lately.

If you’re looking for anything optimistic to hang your hat on, consider that the US television deal may be in play at this time as they’ll be within one year of the current deal with NBC expiring.  It’s not practical business sense to not have games being played when you’re trying to get a new TV deal, especially with the expectation that rights fees across the sporting landscape are likely to drop.

It doesn’t seem like much progress gets made in CBA talks until there’s a work stoppage so it’s reasonable to expect one to happen.  However, I don’t think it will be as long as the last two – maybe a couple of months but not enough to cancel an entire season like 2004-05.

Erik Jernigan: I feel that the Hurricanes still need to acquire a top line center. Do you see any other options that may be available since it doesn’t seem like a Duchene deal will ever happen?

You can make a case that many teams still need to acquire a top line center but Carolina isn’t in bad shape at all with Viktor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Jordan Staal.  If they were to keep Lindholm down the middle permanently, that’s a pretty strong trio with the first two still having some offensive upside.  There isn’t a true number one but you could make a case they have three number twos and not many teams have that type of depth.  They could use more offensive help for sure but I don’t think GM Ron Francis would need to limit his focus to the center position.

In terms of notable names besides Matt Duchene (who some teams view as a second liner and not a top liner now) being available, there really aren’t any that spring to mind.  Toronto and Tyler Bozak could be one to watch at some point if they intend to move William Nylander back to center long-term but he’s a rental.  Everyone wants John Tavares but the likelihood of the Islanders moving him now is remote and he’s also a rental.  I wonder if the Jets will be able to afford to keep Bryan Little around long-term but he too is a pending UFA and that decision could be punted until closer to the trade deadline depending on where they are in the standings.

Legitimate number one centers with team control rarely become available and Duchene is probably the most prominent pivot that could move before the season starts.  Beyond him, the opportunity for upgrading at that position may have to wait until midseason depending on which rental players may be available.

Connorsoxfan: Is Boston going to have to add a vet like Vanek/Jagr/Stafford, or are they content relying on young guys like Bjork and Jakob Forsbacka-Karlson/Carlson (I forget the spelling) to fill out the top 9?

The answer may ultimately depend on what happens with the David Pastrnak discussions.  How much money does GM Don Sweeney want to keep around for in-season moves?  If Pastrnak comes in at a deal smaller than Brad Marchand (eight years, $49MM) which is what both sides had talked about earlier, then there should be enough wiggle room to add a more proven veteran.  If it comes in higher though, they may not have enough room left in their ‘slush fund’ to sign someone of note and still have enough money left for during the season.

I think the team is content with using some of their talented prospects in their top nine if they need to.  If it was me in charge though, I’d be looking to sign one of those veterans.  Injuries always happen and young players can struggle so why not have that extra help in place beforehand rather than potentially being forced to trade from a position of weakness during the season?  With Drew Stafford’s market in particular not going anywhere, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s offered a cheap one-year deal.  He played well enough down the stretch for them that he’d be worth keeping around in some capacity.

Ray: Will Preds GM pull the trigger give up defense for offense? Finally get replacement for James Neal?

I think there will be a time where GM David Poile moves one of his top-four defenders.  However, I don’t think it happens this season.  The earlier acquisition of Alexei Emelin gives them the security blanket of being able to move him into a second pairing role if injuries arise.  If they move one of their better ones now, Emelin becomes a full-time top-four player which isn’t ideal.

Nashville has quite a few promising young blueliners including Dante Fabbro and Samuel Girard, among several others.  They could dangle one of those prospects to a rebuilding team to try and find a replacement for Neal that way.  I think that would be the better way to go as that would allow them to keep their top two pairings intact.

A few years from now when some of these youngsters are NHL ready is when I could see one of their big four defenders getting dealt.  If they have intentions of making another long playoff run in 2017-18 though, they’ll need that back end at full strength so dealing from that to fill their offensive void fixes one hole but creates another that may be even harder to fix which would be counter-productive at best.

Did you miss the weekly live chat? Well now you can submit your question to our mailbag and have our Brian La Rose answer it on Monday! While the summer drags on, there is still lots of intrigue as teams look to fine tune their roster and use their remaining cap space. You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.

Be sure to check back on Monday when our mailbag is posted. You can check out the last mailbag right here.