PHR Mailbag

With the trade deadline now just over a month away, this edition of the PHR Mailbag looks at some of the potential rental players that could be on the move as well as a look at the Blues and several Metropolitan teams.

acarneglia: Do you see the New York Rangers as buyers or sellers at the deadline? If buyers who do they bring in? If sellers who goes?

It’s a cop-out answer but right now, it’s too early to tell.  I suspect GM Jeff Gorton would like to give this core one last kick at the can but with how tight the Metropolitan Division is, we’re simply not going to know if they’re going to be in it until closer to the deadline itself.  This may be a decision that goes down to the last few days before February 26th.

If they were to buy, I don’t think they’d be looking to make the big splash.  They won’t be moving their top prospects and they don’t have a surplus of draft picks to deal from either.  As a result, it won’t be surprising to see them going bargain hunting for a rental bottom-six forward (preferably a center) and some defensive depth.  I don’t believe they’re close enough to being contenders to justify doing much more than that.

On the flip side, things could be interesting if they decide to sell.  Michael Grabner would undoubtedly draw a lot of attention as would Rick Nash (as long as New York retains money or takes a contract back).  Nick Holden isn’t having a great year but some teams should have interest in him.  I wonder about Kevin Hayes as well as someone that’s a non-rental option.  It’s out there that they may not be against doing another core shakeup but unless they go into the tank these next few weeks, that may be more of an offseason deal like they did with Derek Stepan near the draft.  Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello have one year left on their contracts after this and would be players to watch for in that scenario.

Paul Heyman: Will the Blues trade for Mike Hoffman or Max Pacioretty?

We know St. Louis is going to be looking for help on the wing and GM Doug Armstrong said late last month that they’re unlikely to pursue rental players.  (For what it’s worth, I think they should be open to adding pending free agents instead of limiting their options.)  Hoffman and Pacioretty would certainly fit in well and they are the top non-rental wingers that are known to be available.

There are a couple of factors that give me pause in thinking one of them will actually wind up in St. Louis, however.  The first is money.  Payroll room is extremely limited even with Robby Fabbri’s LTIR opening so they will have to come fairly close to matching outgoing contracts.  Carl Gunnarsson ($2.9MM) seems like a logical fit to go but that’s well below what Hoffman (just under $5.2MM) and Pacioretty ($4.5MM) make.  I also don’t get the sense that the Blues are overly open to parting with top prospects and they would likely have to deal one or two based on the current asking prices.

Instead, I think they’re going to look for someone making closer to $3MM that can play a middle-six role.  They’ll get Jaden Schwartz back soon so that should cover filling the current vacancy on the top line.  If the Rangers do wind up selling, I could see Hayes being someone that they look for to fit that bill – he’s unsigned for next season but is a restricted free agent with one more year of team control.  If I had to pick one of your two wingers in terms of who is more likely to go there, I’d say Hoffman simply because he’d cost less to acquire but I wouldn’t put the odds of either of them landing there particularly high.

rowdelicious: Could Detroit land a prospect like Kale Clague or Michael McLeod in a trade for Mike Green?

McLeod is a fairly recent first-rounder while Clague (originally a second-rounder) is probably worth one in a trade now.  So basically, is Green worth the equivalent of a first-round pick?  He’s the best rental defenseman out there but I don’t think his value is quite that high.

Green has tailed off a bit as of late offensively with just nine points in the last 24 games (spanning the last two months).  For a player whose calling card is his production and not his play in his own end, that won’t help his value.

First-round picks, even late ones (or prospects of equivalent value), don’t move as often at the deadline anymore with cost-controlled talent becoming much more important by the year.  The odd one will go for a rental but at this point, Buffalo’s Evander Kane is probably the top candidate to fetch either a first or comparable prospect in return.  Guys like Pacioretty and Hoffman will also be higher on the priority list for teams that are willing to move that level of pick or prospect and moving one for one of them would be defensible given the extra year (or two) on their contracts.

Green should be able to fetch a return comparable to what they got for Brendan Smith last year (second and third-rounders), especially if Detroit is willing to retain salary.  I could even see the third-rounder being a conditional second depending on postseason success or him re-signing.  That’s still a strong return but not quite at the first-rounder or similar prospect level.

@doctor_perk: With the Devils dropping six straight and a poor defensive core being exposed, do you see them making a splash for a top-line defenseman by the deadline? #PHRMailbag

Count me among those that thought Sami Vatanen would have more of an impact than he has had thus far.  I thought he was going to go a long way towards helping things out there but it hasn’t happened just yet.  New Jersey’s back end is certainly a weakness and they would be wise to address it again in the next month.

That said, I don’t see them making a splash for a top-pairing player simply because I don’t think there is a top-pairing player that is going to be moved.  Green from Detroit is the best one out there and while he can log heavy minutes, his defensive concerns aren’t really going to fit what the Devils need.  Ottawa’s Dion Phaneuf is a top-four option but that’s a contract that a lot of teams aren’t going to want to touch.

I think they need someone that can stabilize the bottom half of that back end as offensively, between Vatanen, Will Butcher, and Damon Severson (who has produced in the past), they’re not in bad shape.  Fortunately, those types of players are the ones that are going to be available.

I would not be surprised at all if San Jose’s Paul Martin is someone that the Devils will be watching closely as he works his way back into playing shape in the AHL.  He has been a strong defensive player in the past and his postseason experience would be useful on a team that doesn’t have a ton of it.  He’d also help shore up the bottom end of that back end as well as the penalty kill.  They have the cap room to take on the contract without much concern and the asking price shouldn’t be too high.  Beyond that, some of the names from the next question would serve as potential rental options for them to consider.

MrMet19: Who are the most likely targets the Islanders could swing a trade for to help out on defense or in the net?

Between the pipes, the options appear to be pretty limited.  Unlike Chicago where a lot of players could represent upgrades with Corey Crawford out, there aren’t many possible upgrades for the Isles.  Aaron Dell could be one but I don’t think the Sharks will move him which is why I didn’t include him in the options for the Blackhawks either.  Antti Raanta makes a lot of sense and has had success in this division already while he wouldn’t break the bank.  If they want to make a longer-term splash, I wonder if Robin Lehner (Buffalo) could be a fit but the asking price would certainly be higher.  Is he someone that GM Garth Snow would be comfortable giving a long-term deal to in the summer?

Green would give them a nice one-two punch offensively but I think they may prefer more of a defensive-minded player, especially with Calvin de Haan out for the year.  Jack Johnson’s name is out there and unlike New Jersey, the Isles have a young defenseman that they could move in the deal which is something that Columbus is likely seeking.  Ian Cole would fit in as well but I don’t know if Pittsburgh would move him in the division (same with Columbus and Johnson for that matter).  Erik Gudbranson in Vancouver might move and he would give them a different look on their third pairing while killing some penalties.  Martin from the Sharks would fit in on the third pairing as well but do they want to take on the extra year of that contract?

I’ll toss out one other idea as well that also ties in with the question about St. Louis earlier.  They’re likely looking to move Gunnarsson and he would be a small upgrade defensively for New York although he has another year left on his deal.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported earlier this month that center/winger Brock Nelson could be available.  Nelson’s a non-tender candidate based on the season he’s having with his required qualifying offer of $3.5MM in June.  It’s pure speculation on my end but I wonder if there’s a fit there for something involving those two players and because of the option to qualify Nelson, it wouldn’t necessarily be a pure rental situation which is what Armstrong in St. Louis wants to avoid.

Unfortunately, none of these blueliners are going to drastically change their fortunes but there just aren’t a lot of top-four options available even if that’s what they’re seeking.  That’s why I’d prioritize help between the pipes with Raanta in particular.  If he can provide good goaltending (not even great, just good), the Islanders would be in a much better position for the stretch run and that alone might be enough to get them over the top for a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

I have no doubts that Boston has the pieces to put a strong offer together for Pacioretty.  However, I’m leery that the Canadiens would trade their captain to an archrival, especially since he has another year left on his contract. 

That’s our Brian La Rose answering several questions about the availability of Max Pacioretty and his likelihood of being traded to the Boston Bruins. Our last mailbag featured more than one Bruins-centric question, but we’re looking forward to what you have to ask this week. Will Oliver-Ekman Larsson really be moved? What do the Canadiens do after all their injuries? Are the Golden Knights headed for a Stanley Cup appearance?

Brian will be answering the mailbag on Sunday, but be sure to submit your questions now! Leave a comment below or tweet at @prohockeyrumors using the #PHRMailbag.

With the trade deadline now less than two months away, this edition of the PHR Mailbag focuses primarily on some trade scenarios, including Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty.

@dodgerskingsfan: Do the Los Angeles Kings seem like a fit for Max Pacioretty?

Connorsoxfan: Would Boston be able to assemble a good offer for Pacioretty, and is there any chance a trade of that magnitude could happen with BOS-MTL? Would Montreal take Krug and picks?

There are a lot of teams that would be a fit for Pacioretty and both teams have the parts to put together an intriguing package.  I suspect they would only consider dealing him to one of those teams though.

First, let’s look at the Kings.  Their offense has been strong this season (despite Jeff Carter missing most of the year) but Pacioretty would undoubtedly give them a boost.  Adding him and Carter back to the fold around the same time would be a huge boon.  I believe LA would have to build a futures-based package to get him though and I’m not sure Montreal is willing to do that just yet.  I know it was reported earlier in the season that they might consider dealing a defenseman as the season progressed but with their offense being where it is now, the need just isn’t there.  Los Angeles has the cap space to take on his $4.5MM contract without needing to offset any money either which would certainly come in handy.

I have no doubts that Boston has the pieces to put a strong offer together for Pacioretty.  However, I’m leery that the Canadiens would trade their captain to an archrival, especially since he has another year left on his contract.  Montreal’s reported preference is to get a young scorer back so I suspect they would have more interest in building a deal around one (or more) of Boston’s younger forwards than they might in Krug.  That said, there’s no doubt Krug would fill a big void with the Canadiens.

@CarolinaSki: Does Evander Kane have any interest in re-signing before the deadline? And if he is traded what kind of return do you foresee?

I believe Kane is certainly open to the idea of sticking around with the Sabres for the long-term.  He didn’t fit in well in Winnipeg but all indications are that he’s a fit with Buffalo’s other players and that certainly counts for something.  At the same time, it’s hard to say no to seeing what might be out there on the open market.  I don’t think he’d rule out signing an extension beforehand but I’d say the odds of him doing so are fairly low.

As for what they could expect to get for him, GM Jason Botterill has set an asking price that is higher than what teams received for the top rental players over the last couple of years.  While Kane is more of an impact player than Andrew Ladd or Martin Hanzal was at the time of their deals, there will likely be a couple of things working against Buffalo here.  For one, Kane’s reputation around the league isn’t the greatest which could scare off some buyers while the availability of Pacioretty as well as Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman – players signed beyond this season – could lessen the market as well.  I think they should be able to get a first-round pick at the very least plus a second piece (a decent prospect or comparable pick) but I don’t think they’ll be able to top the return that Winnipeg received for Ladd two years ago unless Pacioretty and Hoffman’s trades wait until the offseason.

mikedickinson: Watching Carolina lately, a huge problem is a lack of a big body who will do dirty work in front of an opposing goaltender. Rarely do the Canes screen the goaltender. Who is out there that may be available on the trade market who will help this problem?

Philadelphia winger Wayne Simmonds was involved in trade speculation earlier this season and with the Flyers on the outside looking in at the playoffs, he could possibly be moved if the team doesn’t think they’ll be able to get an extension done with him next offseason.  I think he’d be the perfect fit in Carolina and the Hurricanes have some young pieces that they could part with to meet what would be a high asking price on Philly’s end.  Of course, if the Flyers go on another long winning streak, they could pull him off the block.  Someone like Kane from the Sabres could fit the bill as well as he has a good touch around the net.

In terms of players that aren’t on the radar quite as much, pending UFA winger Patrick Maroon could be one to watch from Edmonton.  If they stay out of the playoff hunt, he is likely to be on the move and would give Carolina that crease presence and a bit of snarl up front as well.  In terms of someone that’s a bit more under the radar, I’d put Panthers winger Jamie McGinn out there.  He has been a deadline pickup with some success a couple of times already and while he’s not a major goal scorer, he can be a presence around the net.  With another year left on his deal at $3.33MM, I doubt the cost to acquire him would be too prohibitive either.

mcase7187: With Adam McQuaid coming back could the B’s look to trade a guy like Torey K with Matt G playing great with Miller and being younger and more controllable?

I wouldn’t be in a rush to trade Torey Krug even though he’d garner a lot of interest around the league as puck-moving top-four blueliners with strong offensive skills don’t become available too often.  For starters, there’s nothing wrong with having depth in case of injury.  If GM Don Sweeney was to turn around and deal Krug without getting a defender back and then someone else on the back end gets hurt, they’d be facing a situation where Paul Postma could be in line for regular minutes and they’d probably have to turn around and try to trade for another depth option without much leverage to work with.

I’d also be hesitant to trade Krug knowing that Zdeno Chara’s days with Boston are nearing an end.  Even if he sticks around for another season, it may not be ideal to move Krug and then lose Chara shortly after that.  That’s a big blow to the left side and even McQuaid’s deal is up a year from now so the depth would become a concern pretty quickly.  Krug and Charlie McAvoy are a pretty good one-two punch offensively from the back end and I wouldn’t be in a rush to break that up, especially just to accommodate McQuaid’s return.

Sox34: What would be your all 22-and-under team?

Boy, this was a tough one to put together.  This is a center-heavy group up front but several of these players have also spent time on the wing at some point in their NHL career.  I didn’t move right wingers to the left side or vice versa though.  I’ve also tried to balance out left and right-hand shots up front although I wasn’t quite able to do so on the back end where there are more prominent lefties than righties.  There is a bit of projection on the roster in terms of leaving off someone perhaps a bit more established in favor of someone who could be the better player over the long-term.  Here’s the roster, including one spare forward, defenseman, and goalie:

LW – Patrik Laine (WPG), Leon Draisaitl (EDM), Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG), Dylan Larkin (DET)
C – Connor McDavid (EDM), Auston Matthews (TOR), Jack Eichel (BUF), Aleksander Barkov (FLA), Mathew Barzal (NYI)
RW – Nathan MacKinnon (COL), David Pastrnak (BOS), Brock Boeser (VAN), Mikko Rantanen (COL)
D – Zach Werenski (CBJ), Aaron Ekblad (FLA), Ivan Provorov (PHI), Charlie McAvoy (BOS), Rasmus Dahlin (2018 Draft Eligible), Mikhail Sergachev (TB), Thomas Chabot (OTT)
G – Tristan Jarry (PIT), Igor Shesterkin (NYR), Ilya Samsonov (WSH)

Just missing the cut: D Jakob Chychrun (ARI), C Bo Horvat (VAN), RW William Nylander (TOR), C Brayden Point (TB), G Juuse Saros (NSH), D Shea Theodore (VGK)

Suffice it to say, there won’t be a shortage of top-end talent in the league anytime soon.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

In this edition of the mailbag, several trade scenarios involving some prominent players are discussed as well as a look at the Flyers and their early-season streakiness.

Paul Heyman: Will the Sabres trade Evander Kane? Either that question or will the Blues trade for a top-six center with Schwartz being out?

Let’s tackle the second one first.  St. Louis has very limited cap space to work with when you consider that Jaden Schwartz will be back this season (so the short-term LTIR room isn’t a big factor).  As a result, it’s highly unlikely they’ll make a move for a top-six center in the coming weeks.  As the deadline approaches, I expect them to try to go after a top-six winger but with that limited cap room, they’ll have to get creative and will most likely wait until right before the deadline to limit the amount of money they’re taking on.

As for Kane, there doesn’t seem to be any real discussions regarding an extension at the moment so it’s hard to imagine at this point he won’t be traded.  Unless the Islanders decide to shock everyone and deal John Tavares over the risk of losing him for nothing (more on him a bit later), Kane is going to be the top rental player available and Sabres GM Jason Botterill will want to capitalize on that for sure.  The asking price is already believed to be steeper than that of the top rental players from previous years and they should be able to land that.  I wouldn’t rule out Kane playing for Buffalo next season entirely as he could come back in free agency but he should be traded before the end of February.

kyletaylor2322: How much do you read into the Flyers recent surge after the 10-game losing streak? Just because they did pull some of those games into overtime during that streak, but then last night they looked like a game of NHL2k18 and their controller batteries died.

I wouldn’t read a whole lot into it, at least from the standpoint of them potentially turning things around.  Philadelphia just seems to be a bit of a streaky team; they had the inverse of this happen last season with a 10-game winning streak followed by a five-game losing skid shortly thereafter.

While Brian Elliott is an upgrade between the pipes compared to Steve Mason, he’s still well below the top netminders that the Metropolitan Division has to offer.  They’re integrating several young players into their lineup and while that bodes well for their long-term future (and they have a lot to be excited for there), there are going to be growing pains along the way.  The fact that they’re a top-heavy team up front (their offensive production drops off dramatically after their top-four forwards) also makes them prone to streakiness – they can’t shoulder the load alone for long stretches and the supporting cast is hit-or-miss most nights.

When everything’s firing on all cylinders, the Flyers are a very good team.  However, taking those three factors into account, the only real consistent thing about them is that they’re consistently inconsistent.  That means they’re more prone to these alternating stretches of good play and bad play and at the end of the day, they’re not as good as they are when they’re on a winning streak and they’re not as bad as they are when they go into a tailspin.

acarneglia: Could the Islanders or Rangers pursue a trade for Karlsson?

If the Senators were to consider trading Erik Karlsson this season (and I suspect that won’t happen; they’ll probably wait until the summer to make that call), I think the Islanders are one of the few teams that can really make a realistic push for his services.  They have a surplus of draft picks to work with following the Travis Hamonic trade plus some intriguing younger players that could be of interest to Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion.  Also, what type of message would that send to John Tavares as they try to lock him down on a long-term deal?  The Isles would be a motivated buyer with the pieces to make something work although they would have to send a sizable salary back the other way to fit Karlsson under the cap.

The fit isn’t as good for the Rangers, however.  Their prospect and draft pick pools aren’t as well-stocked as their state counterparts and they have a lot of money committed to their defense for next season already.   I don’t see the Sens being willing to take one of those bigger contracts back either unless it was expiring at the same time and the only one that fits that bill is Ryan McDonagh.  Karlsson alongside Kevin Shattenkirk would certainly make for a very exciting one-two punch from the back end but it’s probably not going to happen.

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The hot start of the Vegas Golden Knights has been one of the hot topics around the league and accordingly, dominated the questions posed for this edition of the PHR Mailbag.

@J_B_Maguire: Hard to believe we are talking about @GoldenKnights having a crisis! Does their glut on D give them some trading chips for a G?

Although it’s understandable why Vegas opted to deal Calvin Pickard (to Toronto for winger Tobias Lindberg and a sixth rounder), it has left them with quite a hole with Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban both out of the lineup.  Their spare blueliners are certainly trading chips but I’m not sure GM George McPhee would want to trade one for a player that will amount to a stopgap solution for a few weeks.  Unless they can get a waiver-exempt netminder who can go back down when their top-two return, I suspect they’d prefer draft picks or prospects for their surplus defenders instead.

That said, the Golden Knights should have some options out there if they want to give themselves another option with some NHL experience under their belts.  Andrew Hammond is clearly the odd man out in Ottawa but has had a bit of NHL success in the past and is off to a decent start with AHL Belleville.  I suspect he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery if it got him an NHL look for a few weeks and the Senators, a strict budget team, would certainly like to get out of the contract.  The asking price there should be rather low and could be as simple as simply agreeing to take him off their hands via a waiver claim.

Failing that, the next targets should be other teams that have a spare veteran that they may be willing to swap for their current interim backup in Maxime Lagace to free up playing time for a youngster or save a bit of money.  Winnipeg (Michael Hutchinson), and Los Angeles (Jeff Zatkoff) come to mind as teams that might be interested in doing something like that.

None of these players are particularly exciting options but they’d represent a short-term upgrade while keeping their extra defensemen intact.  However, they probably don’t need to really aim for someone more prominent to fill in for only a few weeks, especially with how well Oscar Dansk has played so far.

Connorsoxfan: After seeing McPhee’s roster shenanigans with Shipachyov, are agents going to be wary of dealing with him in the future?

Vadim Shipachyov’s case is a very rare situation where he signed a pricey contract outside the entry-level system while still having waiver exemption.  In terms of agents dealing with McPhee, it’s going to primarily be via free agency where whoever signs won’t be waiver-exempt when it happens.  In other words, the current situation won’t be able to repeat itself so I can’t see it really being a factor.  It could hurt a bit in terms of their international recruiting but a lot of the time, those players aren’t signing big-money deals right away and are often expected to start in the minors so what has happened here shouldn’t hurt them too much in the grand scheme of things.

It’s worth noting that despite everything that has happened, the Golden Knights have been pretty good to Shipachyov through this.  They could have forced him to report to the minors at the beginning of the season when he was first sent down but they didn’t, allowing him to collect his full pay in the process (which, without escrow coming into play,  actually resulted in him getting more money).  They’ve also allowed his agent to try to find a more immediate NHL opportunity for him which they’re not required to do.  While agents (and players) around the league have certainly taken notice of the situation, they’ll also be noting these factors as well which paint McPhee in a better light.

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