PHR Mailbag: Blues, Flyers, Karlsson, Tavares, Bruins

In this edition of the mailbag, several trade scenarios involving some prominent players are discussed as well as a look at the Flyers and their early-season streakiness.

Paul Heyman: Will the Sabres trade Evander Kane? Either that question or will the Blues trade for a top-six center with Schwartz being out?

Let’s tackle the second one first.  St. Louis has very limited cap space to work with when you consider that Jaden Schwartz will be back this season (so the short-term LTIR room isn’t a big factor).  As a result, it’s highly unlikely they’ll make a move for a top-six center in the coming weeks.  As the deadline approaches, I expect them to try to go after a top-six winger but with that limited cap room, they’ll have to get creative and will most likely wait until right before the deadline to limit the amount of money they’re taking on.

As for Kane, there doesn’t seem to be any real discussions regarding an extension at the moment so it’s hard to imagine at this point he won’t be traded.  Unless the Islanders decide to shock everyone and deal John Tavares over the risk of losing him for nothing (more on him a bit later), Kane is going to be the top rental player available and Sabres GM Jason Botterill will want to capitalize on that for sure.  The asking price is already believed to be steeper than that of the top rental players from previous years and they should be able to land that.  I wouldn’t rule out Kane playing for Buffalo next season entirely as he could come back in free agency but he should be traded before the end of February.

kyletaylor2322: How much do you read into the Flyers recent surge after the 10-game losing streak? Just because they did pull some of those games into overtime during that streak, but then last night they looked like a game of NHL2k18 and their controller batteries died.

I wouldn’t read a whole lot into it, at least from the standpoint of them potentially turning things around.  Philadelphia just seems to be a bit of a streaky team; they had the inverse of this happen last season with a 10-game winning streak followed by a five-game losing skid shortly thereafter.

While Brian Elliott is an upgrade between the pipes compared to Steve Mason, he’s still well below the top netminders that the Metropolitan Division has to offer.  They’re integrating several young players into their lineup and while that bodes well for their long-term future (and they have a lot to be excited for there), there are going to be growing pains along the way.  The fact that they’re a top-heavy team up front (their offensive production drops off dramatically after their top-four forwards) also makes them prone to streakiness – they can’t shoulder the load alone for long stretches and the supporting cast is hit-or-miss most nights.

When everything’s firing on all cylinders, the Flyers are a very good team.  However, taking those three factors into account, the only real consistent thing about them is that they’re consistently inconsistent.  That means they’re more prone to these alternating stretches of good play and bad play and at the end of the day, they’re not as good as they are when they’re on a winning streak and they’re not as bad as they are when they go into a tailspin.

acarneglia: Could the Islanders or Rangers pursue a trade for Karlsson?

If the Senators were to consider trading Erik Karlsson this season (and I suspect that won’t happen; they’ll probably wait until the summer to make that call), I think the Islanders are one of the few teams that can really make a realistic push for his services.  They have a surplus of draft picks to work with following the Travis Hamonic trade plus some intriguing younger players that could be of interest to Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion.  Also, what type of message would that send to John Tavares as they try to lock him down on a long-term deal?  The Isles would be a motivated buyer with the pieces to make something work although they would have to send a sizable salary back the other way to fit Karlsson under the cap.

The fit isn’t as good for the Rangers, however.  Their prospect and draft pick pools aren’t as well-stocked as their state counterparts and they have a lot of money committed to their defense for next season already.   I don’t see the Sens being willing to take one of those bigger contracts back either unless it was expiring at the same time and the only one that fits that bill is Ryan McDonagh.  Karlsson alongside Kevin Shattenkirk would certainly make for a very exciting one-two punch from the back end but it’s probably not going to happen.

austinroundy: Do you think it’s possible the Rangers trade for Tavares in a sign-and-trade deal? Rangers give Rick Nash and Brady Skjei and receive Tavares in a sign and trade.

As a player with an expiring contract himself, Nash won’t carry much in the way of trade value for the Islanders and as much as Skjei is a top-four blueliner, I don’t think he’d be enough in a sign-and-trade scenario.  Those types of trades aren’t that common in the NHL but when they are done, the acquiring team will pay a higher premium than they would if they were picking the player up as a rental and a top-four defender and a top-six winger on an expiring deal probably isn’t enough of a premium to secure the long-term services of a number one center.

The challenge here in this scenario (or any sign-and-trade scenario involving Tavares) is that I don’t think he’s willing to commit to another organization at this time.  The news this week that the Islanders will get their new arena at Belmont Park should at least help the Islanders’ chances of keeping him, despite what Tavares may say publicly.  If he does decide he wants to see what his other options might be, he’d have to wait until the free agent interview period in late June to really be able to do so which basically takes any sign-and-trade option off the table.  Unless Tavares tells the team he’s leaving in the summer before the end of February, it’s hard to imagine they’ll consider trading him.

Connorsoxfan: With the Bruins having such a strong prospect/young player stockpile both on the roster and in the system, do we see any major moves over the offseason? Potentially attaching some to get the Backes deal off the books, or clearing space in other ways and acquiring a star like Tavares or Karlsson via said prospects?

As much as Backes has underwhelmed since joining Boston, I don’t think his contract is that bad to the point where the Bruins would need to attach prospects or picks to move him.  If they do want to free up a bit of money to make a move for a higher-salaried player, I think they could find a way to trade him for someone in the $3MM – $4MM range which they may find preferable to losing a youngster.  If they’re open to offering an incentive to take on a contract, they may want to do that with Matt Beleskey instead if they don’t want to look at a buyout.

I don’t think Tavares is a great fit in Boston.  Patrice Bergeron is still signed for four more years after this one while David Krejci is under contract for three more years at a combined cap hit of over $14MM.  Add $10MM or so for Tavares on a free agent deal and you’re looking at too much money tied up in that position (and that’s assuming Backes is moved elsewhere).

Karlsson makes more sense as someone that can give that back end a big boost while taking a bit of pressure off the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo.  A blueline featuring Karlsson, McAvoy, Torey Krug, and potentially Zdeno Chara would put some fear into many opponents.  Would Ottawa deal him within the division though?  Some teams are still hesitant to trade star players to a division rival.

I have my doubts that Boston will have a splashy offseason.  GM Don Sweeney appears to be a very patient manager and considering they’re already starting to benefit from the influx of young talent, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s inclined to stay the course and just tinker a little bit (maybe this is the summer that Ryan Spooner moves) over trying to add a top-end player.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.