Penguins Rumors

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $84,055,175 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Ty Smith (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Smith: $400K

Smith came over in an offseason trade from New Jersey that saw John Marino go the other way.  It was a move that was designed to clear some cap space that was later used to add another blueliner but it also gives them a 22-year-old that has shown some promise in his first two seasons, albeit with some struggles in his own end.  This is the type of player that typically signs a bridge deal and a decent showing this season could put that contract close to the $2MM range.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Josh Archibald ($900K, UFA)
F Teddy Blueger ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Danton Heinen ($1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry (3.5MM, UFA)
F Ryan Poehling ($750K, RFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

Zucker has struggled since joining the Penguins, both in terms of production and staying healthy.  At 30, he could still turn things around but right now, it looks like he’ll be heading for a significant cut next summer, one that will almost certainly come with another organization.  Blueger has shown some offensive improvement over the last couple of years while his performance at the faceoff dot has also improved.  He’s on track to become a sought-after third-line center in free agency which should add at least another million to his current AAV.

Heinen was non-tendered by Pittsburgh this summer but eventually came back at a discounted rate relative to the 18 goals he put up last season.  On paper, he should be worth more but he has had a soft market for a couple of years now so his ceiling might not be much higher than this for now.  Archibald comes over after missing most of last season with Edmonton.  As a fourth-liner, his earnings upside isn’t going to be much higher unless he has a breakout year with his new team.  Poehling came over from Montreal this summer and will be battling for a depth role with the Penguins.  He shouldn’t cost much more than this if he plays like he did a year ago but he’ll be arbitration-eligible which could make him a non-tender risk if they believe he could push for more than they’re comfortable with in terms of paying a depth player next season.

Dumoulin has been a steady defensive defender for several seasons now but he has never been able to be much of an offensive threat.  That won’t help his market next summer as he looks to land one last long-term deal.  A small raise is achievable given his ability to play hard minutes but there could be a trade-off between maximizing his AAV and securing as long of a deal as possible that could keep the cap hit close to what it is now.

Jarry is likely Pittsburgh’s top priority in terms of trying to work out an extension sooner than later.  He’s coming off arguably his best season, one where he was able to sustain top-level performance for a full year.  At the moment, he’s tied for 30th in the league in terms of AAV, behind some second-string or platoon options.  While he’s not an elite starter, he’ll hit the open market at 28 and still in the prime of his career which should allow him to push for an AAV in the $6MM range.  A similar performance in 2022-23 to that of his play last season could move the cap hit closer to $6.5MM per year.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see something get worked out before he gets to free agency.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jeff Carter ($3.125MM, UFA)
G Casey DeSmith ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Mark Friedman ($775K, UFA)
F Jake Guentzel ($6MM, UFA)
D Pierre-Olivier Joseph ($825K, RFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($800K, UFA)

Guentzel signed his deal before he had proven himself to be a consistent top-line threat and it was a decision that worked out terrific for the Penguins who have had a sizable bargain for several years now.  He’s coming off another 40-goal season and has averaged more than a point per game for the last three.  If he stays at that pace and the jump in the cap comes in 2024, it’s possible to see him in the $9MM range on his next deal.

There was some uncertainty as to whether or not Kapanen would be tendered a qualifying offer this summer and what he ultimately received worked out to be another bridge contract.  If he can establish himself as a consistent second-line winger, he could add a million or more a year from now.  However, more of the same inconsistency will put him in third line territory and cap his earnings upside close to what he’s getting on this deal.  Carter will be 39 at the end of this contract and it’s quite possible there won’t be another one for him.  If he does stick around, a one-year deal with a lower base salary but some games played bonuses that brings the total compensation close to the $3MM mark might be doable if he can still play 15 or so minutes a night and be productive.

Joseph’s short-term future has come into question as he hasn’t locked down a spot in Pittsburgh’s defensive rotation.  Whether he’s with them or someone else though, he’ll need to become a regular on the third pairing if he wants to get much more than his $850K qualifier in 2024.  Ruhwedel has become a steadying piece on the third pairing but his track record resulted in him taking some guaranteed money over testing the market this summer.  Two more years at that level of performance would give him a much better case in free agency and could put him in a spot to come closer to $1.5MM per year.  Friedman is a cheap seventh defender and it’s unlikely Pittsburgh will be able to afford more for someone in that spot but if he’s not playing regularly, he won’t be able to command much more either.  We’ll see if he’s still in the organization after being waived earlier today.

DeSmith opted to forego testing free agency to stay in Pittsburgh on a contract that’s a fair bit cheaper than what other capable backups have received.  But again, like Ruhwedel, his track record was somewhat limited which didn’t help things.  He has posted a save percentage between .912 and .914 in each of his last three NHL seasons, better than the league average.  Two more years of that should propel him past the $3MM mark in 2024.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Jeff Petry ($6.25MM, UFA)
D Marcus Pettersson ($4.025MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($2.75MM, UFA)

Crosby continues to provide strong value on his deal.  While he’s not the leading scorer in the league anymore, he continues to produce more than a point per game, a rate he has hit in each of his 17 seasons.  There will come a time when he slows down but that will be factored into his next deal, if he chooses to sign one at what would likely be a lower rate than this.  McGinn had a decent first season with Pittsburgh filling the role he was supposed to as a defensive winger that could produce more than a typical depth piece.  However, the contract he has for that role is overpriced.  At a time when cap space is at quite a premium, they’re not getting good value on him and as a result, he’ll be tough to try to trade if GM Ron Hextall wants to move him to open up some cap flexibility.

Petry was acquired from Montreal this summer as part of the Mike Matheson deal.  He’s coming off a down year by his standards but is capable of being a number two defender that can be used in all situations.  Assuming he rebounds, this will be a fair-market deal for the Penguins.  The same can’t be said for Pettersson who has yet to rediscover the form he had when he first joined Pittsburgh in a midseason trade from Anaheim.  He’s a good third-pairing player but is making top-four money.  His is another contract that will be difficult to move out as a result.  Rutta’s deal was a bit of a surprise this summer but at the time, they didn’t have Petry and they were intent on shoring up the right side of their blueline.  He’s also someone that’s best utilized on the third pairing and this price tag for that role is on the high side.  Of course, two straight long playoff runs only helped boost his open-market value this summer.

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