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Offseason Keys 2018

Offseason Keys: Colorado Avalanche

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Colorado Avalanche.

If it wasn’t for Vegas, Colorado could have easily wound up being the talk of the league.  After a horrific 2016-17 season and the early trade of Matt Duchene, virtually no one thought they’d be heard from as a competitive team let alone a playoff squad.  However, they picked up their play considerably following the trade and worked their way into the postseason to end their year on a high note.  Now, GM Joe Sakic faces the decision of whether or not to try to escalate things or keep the same approach.  Here are some of their keys for the summer regardless of which route they take.

Add A Top-Four Defenceman

The defense has been an area of need for Colorado for a while now.  They’ve been active on the waiver wire the last couple of years to try to upgrade the third pairing and the overall depth and while that has improved things a little bit, those improvements are only incremental at best.

Erik Johnson gives the Avs a legitimate top pairing player while Tyson Barrie, though he can have his struggles in his own end, is one of the more dangerous offensive threats from the blueline.  Things start to fall off after that, however.  Samuel Girard should progress into a top-four player down the road but he’s only 20 while Nikita Zadorov has shown flashes of dominance but hasn’t really become a consistent top-four option.  2017 second-rounder Conor Timmins will turn pro in 2018-19 and could become a key player down the road but he won’t immediately crack the top four.  With due respect to those players, that unit could use some help if it wants to take that next step forward.

Sakic has stated that he could see the team getting younger next season and if that is indeed the plan, that may take them out of free agency.  Colorado has several young forwards in the system and if they don’t want to get an older player on the open market, the time is right to look into trading one or two of those and getting another core defender that they can build around for the foreseeable future.

Extension Talks For Rantanen

Winger Mikko Rantanen’s first full NHL season back in 2016-17 was decent but many felt he had another level to get to.  He more than proved his supporters right this past season as he jumped from 38 points up to 84, ranking him tied for 16th overall in the league.  In doing so, he has solidified himself as a long-term fixture on the top line.

As the 21-year-old gets set to enter the final year of his contract as of July 1st, the Avalanche can begin to work on a contract extension with him.  In particular, if they believe that Rantanen will produce at a similar level, they’d be wise to try to get something done now as another 80+ point season will really drive up the price in the summer of 2019.

What will be interesting here is if Sakic tries to use Nathan MacKinnon’s contract as the benchmark that Rantanen can’t go past.  MacKinnon is viewed as Colorado’s franchise player and has a $6.3MM cap hit.  However, the Upper Limit of the salary cap will be a fair bit higher this summer than it was two years ago which is something that will come into play.  If they intend to keep a Rantanen extension at a rate under MacKinnon’s, they may not be able to go with a maximum-term deal and instead sign one that doesn’t buy out as many UFA-eligible seasons.

With there being another season left on Rantanen’s deal, this is something that doesn’t have to be resolved for another year.  Given the sizable jump in points from his rookie to sophomore campaign, an extension for him will be a little trickier to navigate.  Of the top young players that can sign early extensions starting next month, Rantanen’s case will be one of the more interesting ones to follow.

Add Goalie Depth

With the addition of Jonathan Bernier in free agency last summer, Colorado had an above average backup that could step in if Semyon Varlamov struggled or was injured.  Combined, the duo did well enough to help lead the Avs to the postseason before both went down and Andrew Hammond, who was included in the Duchene deal to help offset salary, was forced to start the final two playoff games.

Both Bernier and Hammond are set to become unrestricted free agents next month but it appears the Avalanche intend to go in another direction as they signed KHL netminder Pavel Francouz earlier this summer.  Even if they view the 28-year-old as Varlamov’s backup, they still would be wise to add some insurance.

Spencer Martin is a restricted free agent and should be part of the picture in the minors but given the uncertainty surrounding Francouz and how he’ll adapt to the NHL level, he’s not an ideal third-stringer.  Someone with more of a proven track record in the NHL would certainly be beneficial and fortunately for Colorado, there are some players like that available (including Hammond).  It certainly won’t register as an exciting move if they do indeed sign a goalie like this but it would certainly be a beneficial move.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Philadelphia Flyers

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Philadelphia Flyers.

2017-18 was an interesting year for the Flyers.  They once again had extreme highs and lows when it came to their streakiness, something that seems to be becoming a trend under Dave Hakstol.  They got a resurgent season from Claude Giroux and despite more issues between the pipes, gave the Penguins a good run in the first round before being ousted in six.  Now, GM Ron Hextall has some salary cap room to work with this summer which gives him a lot of flexibility to reshape his team.  Here are some things to watch for this offseason.

Extension Talks For Simmonds

Winger Wayne Simmonds has been a key cog for the Flyers over the past seven seasons.  He has become one of the top power forwards in the league and has surpassed the 20-goal mark in six of those years; the one he didn’t was the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.

The 29-year-old will be entering the final year of his contract and will undoubtedly be seeking a significant raise on the $3.975MM AAV he has had since 2013-14.  There is always a demand for power forwards and ones with the type of offensive consistency he has are even harder to find.

However, because of that style he plays, Simmonds is also somewhat of a risk on a long-term contract.  Players like him don’t tend to age well and there’s a good chance he’ll be battling the injury bug more frequently in years to come.  Accordingly, the last few years of a long-term deal could be a cap anchor.

There’s no denying his importance in Philly and even with those risks, Hextall will likely make a run at locking him up sooner than later.  If they can’t come to terms, however, he’ll be an interesting trade candidate at some point next season.

Buyout Decisions

Because of their salary cap situation (more on that later), Philadelphia isn’t in a situation where they’ll be forced to buy out a player or two to free up some short-term flexibility.  However, they still have a couple of forwards where they should at least consider the possibility of doing so.

The change of scenery that center Jori Lehtera received as part of the Brayden Schenn trade back at the draft did not help get him going.  In fact, his play worsened and he found himself frequently on the fourth line when he wasn’t in the press box.  With another year left on his deal at $4.7MM, he would normally be almost a no-brainer to be bought out but at least for now, it doesn’t sound like they’ll go that way.  Yes, they could replace his eight points in 62 games with a cheaper option but the $1.67MM cap hit in 2019-20 that would be there in a buyout may deter them from doing so.  A trade with retention may be something they wind up exploring.

In his first two seasons with Philly, winger Dale Weise has not produced anywhere close to the level he did with Montreal.  He was brought in to be an energetic third-line winger that could chip in with double-digit goals but that hasn’t happened.  He has also been a frequent scratch and has largely been confined to fourth line ice time.  He still has two years remaining on his deal at a $2.35MM cap charge which is pricey for someone in that role.  Again, the 2019-20 charge ($1.28MM) may act as a bit of a deterrent although the price in the other three seasons (2018-19, 2020-21, and 2021-22) would be more manageable at just over $683K.  For most teams, Weise would find himself as a prime buyout candidate this summer and the Flyers will need to decide if he is for them as well.

Spend Wisely

Lately, Philadelphia hasn’t been big spenders on the open market because they’ve had limited room with which to work with.  That’s not the case heading into this offseason as they have roughly $58MM committed to 17 players per CapFriendly without a lot of prominent players to re-sign.  Basically, they can add multiple impact players in free agency but is that the best play to make?

On top of Simmonds needing a new deal next summer, so too does defenseman Ivan Provorov.  As a number one blueliner already, he’s going to get a contract that is well beyond his $894K base salary.  Winger Travis Konecny is in a similar situation.  He’s not going to get the type of raise Provorov will get but it will still be significant.  Projecting a $10MM increase in payroll for these three a year from now isn’t unrealistic so that will have to be kept in mind when spending this summer.  Accordingly, some of their activity in free agency and trades should probably be focused on short-term contracts.

Even with that in mind, Hextall and the Flyers have more than enough room to make a splash this summer and add at least one prominent player.  Given their prospects on the back end and the dearth of impact players in free agency, it’s likely that their addition(s) will come up front.  It has been a while since they’ve been heard from on the open market but that won’t be the case a month from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: New Jersey Devils

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the New Jersey Devils.

The Devils weren’t a popular pick to make some noise in the tight Metropolitan Division but they turned some heads and worked their way into a playoff spot.  Now, they enter the offseason with a lot of payroll room to work with which gives them some chances to bolster their roster.  What should they be focusing on?

Sign A Top-Six Winger

While New Jersey got some unexpected contributions from players they had pegged to play in lesser roles, the Devils were lacking impact winger depth beyond Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri.  (Marcus Johansson was pegged to be in that role but dealt with concussion issues for most of the year.)  They added Patrick Maroon and Michael Grabner before the trade deadline which helped their depth but didn’t really solve the problem either.

Fortunately for New Jersey, the free agent market is fairly strong on the wing.  There aren’t a lot of front-line options but there are some players that can slot in on their second line.  That would allow players like Blake Coleman, Miles Wood, and Jesper Bratt to remain in the bottom six which would give their lineup a lot more balance.  There are enough options on the open market that the focus should be to sign a winger and save their trade capital to fill another hole.

Determine Zacha’s Role And Future

Three years ago, the Devils made center Pavel Zacha the sixth-overall pick in the draft hoping he was their future number one.  While he’s still just 21, that level of optimism is starting to fade after his second straight mediocre season.

In 2017-18, Zacha was frequently in the bottom six and even spent a few games as a healthy scratch.  He was quickly surpassed by Nico Hischier who now slots in as their top center of the future (and the present).  Travis Zajac has three years and a full no-trade clause left on his deal and with a $5.75MM cap hit, he stands to be a fixture in the top six for a while still.

So where does that leave Zacha?  Would a move to the wing allow him to push for more of a regular spot in the top six?   At the very least, it would give him a chance to show if his offensive game has another level to it after scoring just eight goals for the second straight year.  However, doing so also moves him off of a premium position which could negatively affect his value if he fails to produce.

Considering the situation, it’s reasonable to wonder if GM Ray Shero will at least explore the idea of trading Zacha this summer.  He’s still young enough that there will be teams that think a change of scenery will be what he needs to get going so they should be able to get quality offers for him; they wouldn’t necessarily be selling low.  If he has another year like his first two, however, that could change.

Zacha still has some upside so this isn’t an easy call.  Keeping the status quo doesn’t appear to be an ideal situation though so it seems unlikely that New Jersey will have him in the same situation heading into 2018-19 if they have him at all.

Add A Top Defender

It has been a long time since the Devils were thought of as a well-stocked team defensively.  The back end has been an area of concern for a few years now, even with a few moves made as of late in an effort to address it such as the acquisition of Sami Vatanen from Anaheim and the signings of Ben Lovejoy and Will Butcher.  Those moves have helped but more work needs to be done.

New Jersey is lacking a true blue-chip prospect so there isn’t help coming from within down the road either.  That means they’re going to have to look elsewhere.

Unfortunately for them, there is only one top-pairing defender set to hit the open market and that’s Washington’s John Carlson.  It’s clear that they will make a big run at him, just like they did with Kevin Shattenkirk last summer.  But if Carlson follows Shattenkirk’s lead and declines a bigger offer from the Devils, then they’ll be in a tough spot.  Adding depth certainly helps but not as much as a top blueliner does.

While the Devils don’t have a lot of prospect depth on the back end, they have an intriguing prospect group of forwards (and Zacha still holds some value as well).  This may be the time for Shero to dip into that and use some of those future assets to try to land a top-three defenseman.  They have the cap room to take on a larger salary without having to send money the other way to offset it and that’s not something that can be said of a lot of teams looking to make a splash this summer.  If New Jersey wants to take that next step forward, this is a hole that needs to be filled.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Minnesota Wild

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Minnesota Wild.

Following a disappointing first-round exit, Minnesota was hoping for better things in 2017-18.  They had another strong regular season as they hit the 100-point mark for the third time in four years.  They also hovered near the top-ten in both goals scored and allowed and did so despite several key injuries to some of their top players.  In the end, the final result was the same, a five-game series loss in the opening round.  One big change has already been made with Paul Fenton replacing Chuck Fletcher as GM; what will Fenton have on his plate this offseason?

Decide On An Ennis Buyout

The inclusion of Tyler Ennis in the trade that saw Marco Scandella go to Buffalo was more for salary cap purposes than Minnesota wanting him but they were certainly hopeful that a change of scenery would help him get closer to the 40+ point mark that he reached a couple of times with the Sabres.  While his offensive numbers improved slightly, he still didn’t provide much value compared to his $4.6MM cap hit.

Now, with just one year remaining on his contract, a buyout looks like a realistic possibility.  Because his deal was front-loaded though, they’d still be on the hook for a $2.17MM cap charge in 2018-19 plus $1.22MM in 2019-20.  That said, they could still find a suitable replacement for Ennis for less than the roughly $2.5MM difference between his current AAV and his buyout cap hit for next season which would allow them to allocate the savings to fill another hole.

The other idea that they may want to explore is a trade with 50% retention.  While that would bring about a slightly higher cap hit compared to a buyout for next season, it would get him off the books entirely for 2019-20.  However, they’d also likely have to take another contract back which would lessen the benefit from doing this.  It’s also a possibility that Ennis stays but given how tight they’re going to be on the salary cap, he is someone that appears to be in line to be a casualty in some form.

Re-Sign Dumba, Zucker

The Wild don’t have many restricted free agents to re-sign but they have a pair of prominent ones to lock up in defenseman Mathew Dumba and winger Jason Zucker.

Dumba is coming off of his bridge contract and had a great platform season, posting 50 points while logging just shy of 24 minutes per night.  He has emerged as a top pairing defender and has positioned himself to get a significantly higher payday than his $2.75MM qualifying offer.  Dumba is two years away from UFA eligibility so a long-term deal is a likely outcome with an AAV around double what his qualifier is.

As for Zucker, he vastly outperformed his two-year, $4MM deal for the second straight season and posted career bests across the board offensively.  Those types of numbers (33 goals, 31 assists) will look awfully strong in an arbitration room.  While Dumba’s deal is certainly important, Zucker’s case may be even more so as he is just a year away from UFA eligibility.  If they can’t agree on a long-term deal, he can just opt for arbitration, get a significant raise, and potentially hit the open market next summer.  That’s not a scenario Fenton and the Wild will want to deal with so it wouldn’t be surprising if they push to get something done sooner than later with Zucker.

Add Defensive Insurance

Because of their cap situation, Minnesota basically rolled with four quality defenders and used youngsters and depth players to fill out the back half of their back end.  That’s a risky play when everyone is healthy, something that may not be the case to start the season with Ryan Suter’s availability being in doubt.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Fenton try to add a veteran that can be a strong fit on a third pairing when the full lineup is available that can move up and hold his own on a second pairing when there are injuries.  Ideally, a true top-four defender would be better but even with the expected increase to the salary cap, they won’t have a lot of room to work with once Zucker and Dumba are locked up.  A fourth or fifth defender is about all that they will be able to afford but that would still give them some form of insurance which is something they didn’t really have this past season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Anaheim Ducks

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Anaheim Ducks.

Following an appearance in the Western Conference Final in 2016-17, the Ducks headed into the season looking to take that next step forward.  Instead, they wound up taking several in the wrong direction and were swept in the opening round by San Jose.  While GM Bob Murray decides whether or not it’s time to shake up the core of their roster, here are some of their other keys to their summer.

Bridge Or Long-Term Deal For Montour

A strong showing last postseason for defenseman Brandon Montour set the stage for him to become a key part of Anaheim’s back end.  He did just that while working his way into a lot more ice time down the stretch; he played at least 20:58 in his final 28 games (including the playoffs).  Montour also took advantage of the extra ice time to post an impressive 32 points.

With his entry-level deal now finished, the 24-year-old heads into the offseason in a good place.  He’s eligible for arbitration and if he goes to a hearing, he’ll have a strong case.

What makes this a bit more intriguing is that 2017-18 was Montour’s only full NHL season.  He played quite well but has he shown enough over 107 career regular season games and 21 postseason contests to warrant a new long-term deal that covers the rest of his RFA years plus some UFA ones?  Or, is a short-term pact the better way to go?

While Anaheim has several other restricted free agents to re-sign (including wingers Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase), they should have enough room under the cap that their situation won’t force them to go with a bridge deal.  Montour projects to be a key cog on their back end for years to come but with such little of an NHL track record under his belt, it’s going to be an interesting call to make for Murray.

Extension Talks

Last summer, the Ducks acted early and signed defenseman Cam Fowler to an extension as soon as he was eligible.  They’ll have to decide whether or not to do so with a trio of notable players entering the final year of their respective contracts.

Goaltender John Gibson didn’t have the best of playoffs but he had a very strong regular season and was among the league leaders in games played, wins, and save percentage.  He has emerged as a legitimate starting netminder and he will be seeking a significant raise on his current $2.3MM AAV.  There isn’t anyone at the minor league level that is set to push for playing time so it’s clear that Gibson is their guy for the long haul.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team try to get an early extension done.

Center Adam Henrique made a big impact after being acquired from the Devils for defenseman Sami Vatanen and with Ryan Kesler’s availability for next year in doubt already, Henrique is going to be counted on as a key cog once again.  That should have him in line for a nice raise on his $4MM AAV (though it’s worth noting he’s set to earn $5.5MM in salary next year).  Anaheim already has $15.5MM per year tied up through 2020-21 in their top two pivots but they may want to add another big chunk to that in the form of a new deal for Henrique.

Then there’s winger Jakob Silfverberg.  The key part of the Bobby Ryan trade took a small step backwards in 2017-18, posting 40 points in 77 games after picking up 49 in 79 contests the year before.  He has basically cemented himself as someone that’s going to be around that 40-point plateau each season and while he’s more of a secondary player, that type of consistency will be rewarded on the open market if he makes it there next July.  His current cap hit is $3.75MM and it will take a pretty big raise to get him to forego free agency.  Of these three players, he’s probably the least likely to sign an early extension.

Rebuild The Fourth Line

In the final game of the postseason, Anaheim’s fourth line was Derek Grant down the middle flanked by wingers Jason Chimera and J.T. Brown with center Antoine Vermette as a reserve forward.  All four of those players are slated to become unrestricted free agents and it’s doubtful that all of them will be back.

This will give Anaheim the opportunity to really reshape their bottom trio.  They could give youngsters like Troy Terry and 2016 first-round picks Sam Steel and Max Jones a chance to play right away and add some speed and scoring touch to that unit.  Of course, doing so would limit their penalty killing options so as tempting as this may seem on paper, it’s an unlikely scenario.

The more realistic expectation is that they will try to bring back one or two of their existing group (Grant in particular), add one or two new faces in free agency, and then give the younger players a look at training camp.  The fourth line has been an area that Murray has frequently tried to tinker with the last couple of years but this will be a chance to really build the trio from scratch so that in-season moves to bolster it shouldn’t be necessary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Los Angeles Kings

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Los Angeles Kings.

From the standpoint of making the playoffs versus not making them, 2017-18 was a success for Los Angeles.  They picked up their play down the stretch and landed the top Wild Card spot in the West.  However, the success ended there as they wound up being swept by Vegas in the opening round which has sent them back to the drawing board.  With most of their team already signed, it’s shaping up to be a relatively quiet summer but here are some keys to make it a successful one.

Decision On Rieder

Prior to the trade deadline, the Kings picked up speedy winger Tobias Rieder from Arizona as part of a deal that saw netminder Darcy Kuemper sent to the desert.  They were hoping that he would bolster their bottom six and that his struggles with the Coyotes weren’t a sign of things to come.  That wasn’t exactly the case as he wound up with just six points in 24 games (regular season and playoffs).

At the time the trade was made, it seemed like there was a good chance that Rieder would get a qualifying offer in June but that’s not as much of a guarantee now.  The back-loaded nature of his contract means that he is owed a $2.45MM qualifier and while that’s not bad value for a player who put up 25 points on the year between the two teams, there is probably better value to be had on the open market.

Further complicating things is his arbitration eligibility.  While he’s not going to have a case for a big raise, his award won’t be high enough for Los Angeles to receive walkaway rights.

On the flip side, Rieder is just 25 years old, has hit double digits in goals in each of his four NHL seasons, and can play both wings.  He’s not the type of player that a team builds around but he can certainly be part of a supporting cast on a good team so he’s not someone that they should necessarily want to let go for free either.  Of the players on the bubble for qualifying offers, Rieder’s situation is one of the more intriguing ones.

Free Up Payroll

There aren’t many teams that are eagerly awaiting the announcement of the salary cap for next season than the Kings.  They already have roughly $70MM committed per CapFriendly and while their list of free agents is rather small, by the time they fill out the rest of their roster, they may not have enough left to have another impact player and still leave enough to hedge against injuries or to save for a late-season acquisition.

Considering their move to acquire defenseman Dion Phaneuf last season, it may seem a little odd to think that they may want to deal from their back end to free up some extra flexibility.  However, their top five blueliners cost just shy of $23MM and with the free agent market being relatively weak at that position, they’d be dealing from a position of strength and having rookie Daniel Brickley in the system gives them a youngster with upside to step in.

Add Top-Six Help

The other reason they may want to do something with their back end is to give them the flexibility to add to their top-six.  Youngster Alex Iafallo had a nice rookie season but is miscast in a top-line role and while Dustin Brown had a significant bounce-back campaign, it would be tough to count on a repeat of his 61 points after he failed to average half of that over his previous four seasons.  Rieder (if qualified) doesn’t really fit in a top-six spot either.

Fortunately for Los Angeles, they’re set down the middle with Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter so they can set their sights on the wing where the free agent market is much stronger.  It’s also the easier position to try to acquire in a trade.

If they can free up a little more payroll room (or the salary cap increase is higher than anticipated), the Kings should be able to go after most of the top wingers on the open market.  Adding one of them would force Iafallo to drop into a more optimal spot in the lineup while also providing a shot in the arm to a middle-of-the-pack attack.  Quietly, Los Angeles was the top defensive team in the league in 2017-18 (in terms of goals allowed) so adding one more quality scorer would go a long way towards getting them closer to contention.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Florida Panthers

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Florida Panthers.

This past season was a bit of a strange one for Florida.  After a down year that saw them fall out of a playoff spot, there was a fair bit of a shakeup on the roster and a change behind the bench.  It took some time but towards the end of the year, the Panthers hit their stride.  Unfortunately for them, it wasn’t quite enough to reach the playoffs.  Now, they head into an offseason with more stability and a few things less on their to-do list.  Here are some keys for the summer ahead.

Cut Some Payroll

Even after unloading Reilly Smith’s deal last summer (by working out a side deal with Vegas that also saw Jonathan Marchessault leave), Florida’s payroll is already relatively high, especially considering that they’re not typically a cap-spending squad.  Per CapFriendly, they already have nearly $66MM tied up for next season already.  Even more notable is that many of those contracts are long-term pacts and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them look to move one of those.

Of their ten players already signed through 2021, forward Nick Bjugstad may be the one to watch for this summer.  He wound up being shifted to the wing thanks to the presence of Aleksander Barkov and Vincent Trocheck as their top two centers and while he had a decent season, a $4.1MM cap hit for a middle-six winger could be deemed as expendable for the right price.  Considering the free agent market isn’t great in terms of quality depth down the middle, Bjugstad would undoubtedly attract some interest from teams looking for help at that spot.

From a shorter-term perspective, winger Jamie McGinn and his $3.33MM cap hit (and $3.5MM salary) is someone they could look to move to free up some money.  Considering his limited ice time, his 29 points isn’t too shabby but with some other wingers coming up quickly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Dale Tallon try to free up McGinn’s roster spot for one of them while saving some money along the way.

Determine Petrovic’s Future

2017-18 was not a year to remember for defenseman Alexander Petrovic.  After being protected in the expansion draft (which helped force Marchessault out the door), he was being viewed as a core player.  It didn’t take long for that to change.  He was a frequent healthy scratch early on and he voiced his frustration with his role back in November.  While he wasn’t on the bench too much down the stretch, he still wound up averaging just 14:39 per game, a significant drop from just a year earlier.

The 26-year-old is now entering his final year of restricted free agency after signing just a one-year pact last summer.  He’s due a qualifying offer of $1.85MM and while he struggled, he still should get that at the very least.  How much more will the Panthers want to give him, however?  A long-term deal seems unlikely given the lack of confidence that head coach Bob Boughner seems to have in him.  A one-year contract takes him to unrestricted free agency next summer and that’s not an ideal spot for Florida to be in either.

With that in mind, Tallon is going to have to make an interesting decision here.  Do they commit multiple years to keep him around?  If not, he then becomes a trade candidate and is someone that could wind up moving sooner than later.  What a difference a year can make.

Add A Top-Six Winger

Last summer, the Panthers went 50/50 on what they hoped would be top-six acquisitions on the wing.  Evgeni Dadonov’s return from the KHL went extremely well as he collected 65 points while emerging as a front-line option.  Meanwhile, things didn’t go as well for Radim Vrbata, who struggled mightily and has already announced his retirement.

Not surprisingly, there was a void in their top-six for most of this past season and it’s one that they will want to fill this summer.  Tallon has suggested in the past that while they’re open to signing a free agent in the right situation, their focus is building on the current core.

With that in mind, a trade seems like the way they’ll want to go.  Not only would that allow them to try to add someone more in line with the age of their core players (early-to-mid-20s), it would also enable them to get someone who is a little more cost-controlled which would be advantageous considering how many players are locked up long-term already.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: St. Louis Blues

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With just two teams still playing, the rest have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the St. Louis Blues.

2017-18 was full of highs and lows for the Blues.  Carter Hutton emerged as a top goaltender while offseason Brayden Schenn vastly exceeded expectations.  On the flip side, Jake Allen struggled between the pipes and they had more than their fair share of injuries.  In the end, it added up to missing the playoffs on the last day of the regular season, sending them back to the drawing board this summer.  What will they be looking to do this offseason?

Decide Hutton’s Fate

After being a decent backup for the last few years, Hutton took his play up quite a few notches this past season.  He started to steal starts away from Allen and wound up posting the best save percentage (.931) and goals-against average (2.09).  That’s quite a performance heading into unrestricted free agency.

Given the season that Allen had (2.75 GAA, .906 SV%), the Blues would undoubtedly like to have some form of insurance behind him and Hutton is the logical choice to try to keep around.  The question is, can they afford to?

Hutton will certainly be seeking a raise on the $1.125MM cap hit he played under in his two seasons in St. Louis.  With top backups reaching (and in some cases, surpassing) $2.5MM in recent free agent markets, it’s reasonable to assume that this will be the minimum benchmark he’s looking to get.

Is that too rich for the Blues?  They have some money to play with this summer but have a couple of key restricted free agents to re-sign (more on one of those shortly) and they will be on the lookout for another top-six forward, an area they were looking for help in throughout this past season and that was before they dealt Paul Stastny to Winnipeg.  If they can’t afford to bring him back, then they will need to decide whether or not to go with one of their prospects in Jordan Binnington or Ville Husso or if they’d be better served going after one of the other veterans on the open market.

Short-Term Or Long-Term For Fabbri

Two years ago, winger Robby Fabbri looked like he was on his way to becoming a key player rather quickly.  He put up 37 points in 72 games as a rookie and followed that up with a comparable sophomore campaign with 29 points in 51 contests, giving him a slightly higher point-per-game average.

However, that’s when the injuries started.  Fabbri tore his ACL in February of 2017, ending his second full NHL year prematurely.  He was expected to be ready for training camp and was going to be counted on to provide St. Louis with some secondary scoring.  Unfortunately, he wound up re-tearing the same ACL which ended his 2017-18 season before it even started.

A year and a half ago, he looked like a prime candidate for a long-term deal once his entry-level contract expired but that’s not the case now as he hits restricted free agency this summer for the first time.  Given how much time he has missed, a short-term bridge deal seems like the logical outcome.  However, this could be an intriguing buy-low opportunity for St. Louis.  Given the uncertainty that follows when a player misses a year and a half with multiple knee surgeries, there’s a chance that Fabbri may be willing to take a bit of a lesser salary to get some long-term security.  If they can find the right dollar amount on that deal, this could be an opportunity to get a top-six talent signed for a below-market value although there obviously would be some risk.  The bridge contract is still the likelier outcome but it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Doug Armstrong investigate a long-term pact as well.

Add Top Six Help

Throughout 2017-18, the Blues were looking for a top-six winger thanks to Fabbri’s injury.  Unfortunately, they didn’t have the cap space to make that type of in-season addition.  Stastny’s departure opens up another vacancy in there that needs to be filled, even with Fabbri returning.

During the season, the team tried centers Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka in that role but both are better suited for a third line position.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Armstrong look to deal one of those two players; Sobotka would be the easier to flip with him not having any no-trade protection and two years left on his contract.

With the salary cap expected to be increased for next season, St. Louis should have enough space to make a splash in free agency.  While they were looking for help on the wing during the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them look at the centers either considering that Stastny needs to be replaced.  The way things look now, there is likely to be at least one notable newcomer in their lineup come October.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Dallas Stars

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While the playoffs are ongoing, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Dallas Stars.

Things were looking up in Dallas heading into this past season.  They looked to have some stability between the pipes with Ben Bishop as their new starter while they added a top line winger via free agency in Alexander Radulov plus a top-four defender in Marc Methot, among other acquisitions.  Those moves, along with Ken Hitchcock replacing Lindy Ruff behind the bench, didn’t result in a playoff spot and GM Jim Nill has already brought in a new head coach in Jim Montgomery who takes over following Hitchcock’s retirement.  With that big off-ice move done, here are their key on-ice tasks this summer.

Find A New Backup

The era of having the most expensive goaltending tandem has come to an end as Kari Lehtonen’s contract, one that carried a cap hit of $5.9MM, officially comes off the books in July.  Given how he performed when pressed into action late in the year when Bishop went down, it seems likely that they will opt to go in a different direction this summer instead of looking to bring him back.

There are several other backups to choose from so if that’s the route they choose to go, Nill will have quite a few options to choose from.  However, is that the best way for them to look to fill the position?

Dallas doesn’t have anyone at the minor league level that is pushing for NHL time.  (Jake Oettinger, a first-round pick last June, is still in college and is several years away from being ready.)  That means they’ll be forced to turn to the free agent market a few times (or hand out a long-term contract this summer) to find Bishop’s backup.

With that in mind, they may be better off pursuing a younger understudy, one that may be blocked in their current organization or is deemed expendable with another player pushing for NHL time.  While the risk factor is higher here, there’s also the potential for a greater reward which might outweigh the benefits of signing a run-of-the-mill veteran in free agency.

Add Defensive Help

The Stars have struggled in their own end for a little while now despite their efforts to bring in capable veterans to steady the ship.  Methot battled injury issues all season long while Dan Hamhuis, their veteran addition back in 2016, is eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer.  Even if they bring him back, another impact defenseman would be a huge help.

John Klingberg has established himself as a legitimate top pairing player but the supporting cast is a work in progress.  Esa Lindell took some big strides forward in his development but he’s better served in a secondary role.  Miro Heiskanen, the third-overall pick in 2017, is expected to become a core part of their back end down the road but even if he makes the jump to the NHL in 2018-19 as expected, he will need some time to develop before he ascends to that top spot.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the UFA market isn’t ripe with top defenders and the one that is a top pairing player, Washington’s John Carlson, plays the same side as Klingberg.  As a result, Nill may be forced to resort to more patchwork by trying to shore up the depth but with Hamhuis and Greg Pateryn both unrestricted, adding a couple of defenders this summer would be a wise move.

Decision On Spezza

Saying that center Jason Spezza struggled in 2017-18 would be a pretty big understatement.  He went from being a quality top-six forward to someone who struggled considerably and wound up seeing his ice time cut to just 13 minutes a night, his lowest since his rookie year back in 2002-03.  Needless to say, he didn’t provide good value for his $7.5MM cap hit.

Things didn’t go well with Hitchcock behind the bench but will Montgomery’s new system give him a chance to rebound or do they believe Spezza’s days as a top-six forward are numbered?  If it’s the latter, then they will need to pursue a trade or examine a buyout, a move that would free up $5MM in cap room for 2018-19 (but would add $2.5MM on the books for 2019-20 when Tyler Seguin is in need of a new deal).  It’s believed that the team intends to make this call by the end of the month.  Spezza can help control his own future as well as he has a ten-team no-trade list plus a no-move clause in his contract.

What will make this a more difficult call to make is Martin Hanzal’s situation.  He battled multiple injuries in his first year with the Stars and underwent back surgery that has his availability for the start of the season in jeopardy.  Dallas was hoping Hanzal could be their second line center (and even tried moving Spezza to the wing to accommodate that) but if it appears that his recovery will be towards the longer end of the six-to-nine-month timeframe, that could force their hand towards keeping him.

Given his sizable contract, this isn’t going to be an easy decision, especially since his trade value will be a lot lower now than it would have been a year ago and they would likely have to take on a pricey contract as part of a return.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them decide to keep Spezza around in the hopes that a new system will help him rebound for 2018-19.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Calgary Flames

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While the playoffs are ongoing, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Calgary Flames.

After making the playoffs a year earlier, Calgary took a step back this past season.  A late-season injury to Mike Smith was costly as the team struggled down the stretch and wound up missing the playoffs as a result.  That led to a change behind the bench as Glen Gulutzan was let go with former Carolina bench boss Bill Peters takes over.  That and the departure of Brian Burke have been the big off-ice changes so far but the Flames have some key decisions to make on the ice as well.

Determine Their Backup

Eddie Lack was brought in to be the backup goaltender for Smith but that didn’t last too long.  He struggled mightily at the beginning of the year and wound up being dealt to New Jersey in a swap of waived-and-buried veteran players.  That resulted in a pair of youngsters getting chances and suffice it to say, the results were mixed.

David Rittich got off to a strong start, posting a .938 SV% in his first six starts.  However, he failed to come even close to maintaining that mark the rest of the way, checking in with a .889 mark in his final 14 appearances which is well below the NHL average.  Jon Gillies saw some action when Smith went down and he was consistently inconsistent and didn’t stake a claim to a full-time spot either.

Both players are set to become restricted free agents this summer and if nothing else, they should receive qualifying offers.  However, is it a prudent move to leave the number two spot open for one of them?  Or does it make more sense to add a veteran backup in a move similar to what Lack was supposed to provide this past season?  While a backup goaltender doesn’t seem like a key need most of the time, that player can make a big difference, a lesson that Calgary learned the hard way in 2017-18.

Find A Top Line RW

This one has been on their radar for a while.  Three years ago, Michael Frolik was brought in and while he has shown an offensive touch at times, he’s too inconsistent to hold down a spot alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan.  The following summer, Troy Brouwer was brought in to fill that spot.  Two years later, that $4.5MM per year contract looks like somewhat of an albatross after he scored just six times this past season.

Micheal Ferland saw some time to start the season and to his credit, he held his own relatively well despite being more of a physical energy player.  The team brought in Jaromir Jagr with the hopes that he could keep up and that simply didn’t happen; he wound up being waived and loaned back to the Czech Republic.  Ferland saw a lot of time there in the second half of the year but that’s still not his ideal spot to be.

Finding a legitimate scoring threat to play on that top unit would go a long way towards helping an offense that ranked 26th overall in the NHL in 2017-18.  Not only would it make that top line that much more dangerous but it would also allow their other wingers to play in roles that are better suited for them.

Decision On Bennett

Sam Bennett’s third full NHL season largely resembled that of his sophomore campaign which has led to plenty of questions about his long-term upside.  The fourth overall pick in 2014 has shown flashes that he can still become an impact player but at other times, he has struggled considerably.  A change of position from center to the wing didn’t do much to change his fortunes either.

Last summer, the call Calgary needed to make was whether to give him a bridge contract or take a gamble and lock him up long-term.  They went with the short-term deal, two years with a $1.95MM cap hit and that certainly looks like the right choice at this time after he put up his second straight 26 point campaign.

This offseason, the decision that needs to be made is whether or not they still believe he is part of their long-term future.  If not, the time might be right to move him, even though his value isn’t exactly at its peak.  If there’s a team that believes a change of scenery is all he needs to get on track, the Flames should still be able to leverage a quality asset in return.  If they opt to hold onto him, one more year like the one he just had will only weaken his value.  On the flip side, with Peters behind the bench and a new system in place, GM Brad Treliving has to at least consider the possibility that those changes might be enough to get Bennett going in Calgary.  It’s a bit of a risky decision to make either way but it’s a call that they will have to make sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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