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Offseason Checklist 2024

Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Nashville.

It looked like Nashville was pivoting to a rebuild with the moves they made last summer but instead, it wound up being more of the same even with some core pieces gone and other new core players in place.  The Preds went on a major hot streak in the second half of the season, recording at least a point in a franchise-record 18 straight games which helped secure them a Wild Card spot.  However, they weren’t able to muster up much offense in the playoffs, resulting in a first-round elimination.  Now, assuming they’re not looking to rebuild now, GM Barry Trotz will have several objectives to try to accomplish this summer.

Replace McDonagh

Trotz made one notable move this offseason, sending Ryan McDonagh back to Tampa Bay, fulfilling a request from the blueliner.  In doing so, he took one of their more notable defenders out of their lineup.  While they offloaded his full $6.75MM cap hit and got a second-rounder, they didn’t get anything back that could help the current roster while creating a big hole to fill.

This past season, McDonagh was second on the team in ice time behind only Roman Josi.  He was also second in points by a blueliner and blocked shots while leading all Nashville players in shorthanded ice time.  Suffice it to say, they need to find an impactful replacement.

Brandon Montour is the only pending unrestricted free agent who averaged more than McDonagh’s 21:47 per game in 2023-24.  Having said that, veterans like Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce can also fill that void.  Chris Tanev would be a shorter-term addition to cover some hard defensive minutes while Matt Roy could be more of an under-the-radar fit.  Alternatively, they could look to the trade market.

With Alexandre Carrier and Tyson Barrie also set to hit the open market next month, the Preds will also have some work to do in terms of adding some depth.  But on top of that, they’re going to need to find a top-three defender if they want to hang around the playoff picture.

Decide Saros’ Future

This time a year ago, there was speculation that the Predators were open to moving Yaroslav Askarov with an eye on making a splash either at the draft or to upgrade their roster.  Clearly, that never materialized and the young netminder had a strong season with AHL Milwaukee and remains their goaltender of the future.

How close the future is remains to be seen, however.  Veteran goaltender Juuse Saros is set to enter the final year of his contract next season, one that carries a below-market $5MM AAV.  The 29-year-old’s numbers for the year weren’t spectacular but he was much better in the second half of the year and had a strong showing in the playoffs.  That has him well-positioned to earn a considerable raise on his next deal.  On the surface, he could make a case for a contract similar to the seven-year, $59.5MM pact ($8.5MM AAV) that Connor Hellebuyck signed with Winnipeg last season.

With Askarov in the picture, is it advisable for them to commit that type of deal to Saros?  If they feel they should do that, then it’s possible that Askarov could be in play once again.  On the flip side, if Trotz feels that it’s not worth paying that type of contract, then the decision becomes about trading him now or keeping him into next season and re-assessing closer to the trade deadline.

If they look to move him in the coming weeks, it might be tough to elicit top value with Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark (among others) believed to be available as well.  While that means there could be more demand for starting goalies, the higher supply could lower the offers coming Nashville’s way.  Generally speaking, teams typically get better returns if they move a goalie in the offseason but it’s certainly possible that this isn’t the case this year with the other netminders in play.

On the surface, this could be Nashville’s biggest decision of the summer.  Is it time to hand the reins to Askarov?  They’ll have to determine the answer to this question probably within the next few weeks.

Add Scoring Depth

Under Andrew Brunette, the Predators went from 27th in goals scored in 2022-23 to 10th this season, gaining 40 extra goals in the process.  However, they struggled considerably in that department in their opening-round loss to Vancouver, scoring just a dozen times in six games even with the Canucks playing most of that series without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko.

To that in, despite their improvement in the regular season, Trotz told Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s looking to add up front, particularly in their top nine so they’re not as reliant on the top line as they were at times.  Before looking at the external options, they will need to consider some internal ones, however.

Youngsters Juuso Parssinen, Philip Tomasino, and Egor Afanasyev all spent time in the minors this season (the latter almost the entire year) but are all now waiver-eligible moving forward.  Parssinen and Tomasino have had some success in Nashville at times but haven’t been the most consistent so far.  Trotz will need to identify which ones are in the plans for 2024-25 and if any aren’t, this might be the time to try to move them before running the risk of having to sneak them through waivers.  But one (or more) of them establishing themselves as regulars next season should help their offensive depth at a minimum.

As for free agent options, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take a run at re-signing Jason Zucker who fit in pretty well after being acquired at the trade deadline.  Beyond that, since their focus seems to be on improving their depth, they’re probably not going to be targeting the top end of the UFA class.  But veterans like Tyler Toffoli and Vladimir Tarasenko could appeal as multi-year veteran options while Jake DeBrusk and Teuvo Teravainen could be longer-term fits.  With $26MM in cap space per CapFriendly, they will have room to add a forward or two even after addressing their defensive situation.

Improve Penalty Kill

During the regular season, Nashville’s penalty was a trouble spot.  Their success rate dropped to just 76.9%, good for 22nd in the league.  For comparison, they were at 82.6% in 2022-23, good for a three-way tie for fourth in the NHL in that regard.  The slippage shorthanded likely played a role in their decision to let assistant coach Dan Hinote go late last month as one of his responsibilities was running the penalty kill.

For starters, they’ll need to find a replacement for Hinote behind the bench who will likely take on his old role.  That’s something they’d probably like to have in place before free agency opens up next month.

It wouldn’t be surprising if penalty killing acumen will be among the priorities that Nashville uses to round out their back end to replace Carrier (assuming he doesn’t re-sign) and Barrie.  There are plenty of depth defensemen available on the open market, several of which can handle heavy penalty killing roles while the lower-end blueliners are typically easier to get on the trade market.  They should be able to address this in the coming weeks.

Things get a little harder when it comes to their forwards.  They already have ten returning forwards, not including the three now-waiver-eligible ones mentioned earlier.  If they bring Zucker back and/or add another offensive forward, that fills one hold but probably doesn’t address the penalty killing element unless they’re bringing in a notable two-way player.  It might require shaking up the fourth line that was quietly effective or moving out someone already there to open up a roster spot to bring in more of a penalty killing specialist to help get this unit back on track.  It’s not a must-fix priority but it’s one that Trotz will likely try to address nonetheless.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Los Angeles Kings

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Los Angeles.

After swinging a big trade in the offseason to bring in Pierre-Luc Dubois, expectations were high for the Kings heading into the season.  However, they struggled out of the gate, eventually leading to a coaching change.  While they were able to make it into the playoffs, they went out quickly in the first round, failing to meet those summer hopes.  They checked one item off their to-do list when the interim tag was lifted off head coach Jim Hiller but GM Rob Blake will still have some things to accomplish this summer.

Add A Starting Goalie

The decision to add Dubois forced the Kings to not try to re-sign Joonas Korpisalo who impressed after being acquired at the 2023 deadline and instead go quite cheap at the goaltending position.  Pheonix Copley was in place as a low-cost backup while Cam Talbot came on a one-year deal where he accepted $1MM in bonuses (which will count against their books this season) and they hoped a duo with a combined cap hit of $2.5MM could get the job done.

Talbot fared pretty well in his 50 appearances so that part worked out as well as they could have reasonably hoped.  But Copley struggled before being injured with David Rittich coming up in the second half to serve as the backup.  Rittich is already back on a low-cost one-year deal but can they afford to run it back with the same tandem?  It’s not that Talbot hasn’t earned another contract but after trying to go cheap lately at that position, getting a more proven option on a longer-term agreement seems like it might be the better way to go.

However, the free agent class doesn’t have any true starters available.  There are some platoon options with some question marks (including Talbot) and then some pure backups from there.  Accordingly, if they’re going to add a true starter, it’ll have to come on the trade front.

The good news is that this looks like a year that could see some veteran netminders moved.  Los Angeles is believed to have made a real run at Linus Ullmark before the trade deadline while many expect Jacob Markstrom could be in play again.  Others like John Gibson and perhaps Tristan Jarry have been suggested as possible trade candidates as well.  Getting a capable veteran who can stabilize things for a few years between the pipes should take away a big question mark that has been around for them in recent years.

Re-Sign Byfield

It took some time but Quinton Byfield took a big step forward this season, becoming an impactful top-six producer with 20 goals and 35 assists.  The timing for the jump was certainly ideal as he was in the final year of his entry-level deal in 2023-24, meaning he’ll be a restricted free agent on July 1st.  He is by far their most prominent player to re-sign.

The challenge here will be finding the balance between risk on both sides.  It’s possible that one side will want a bridge contract to get a better sense of what’s to come.  If Blake and the Kings aren’t sold this is repeatable, they may not want to pony up on a long-term agreement right away.  On the flip side, if Byfield’s camp feels that the 21-year-old has another gear or two in him, they may prefer the short-term agreement now to potentially set him up for a more lucrative one when he has arbitration rights down the road.  In that scenario, something in the $3.75MM range might fit, potentially back-loaded to up the qualifying offer upon expiration.

Now, if both sides are open to a long-term pact that buys out some UFA years, then there’s going to be some shared risk.  For it to make sense for Byfield, a long-term agreement likely has to come in somewhere closer to double the bridge amount.  For someone who came into this season with eight goals in 93 career NHL games, the Kings would certainly be taking a leap of faith.  However, there is some potential upside as if Byfield is on that contract and becomes a legitimate top liner, that price tag would change to a team-friendly one quite quickly.

The other factor to consider here is what else Blake has planned for the summer.  If the plan is to add multiple key veterans, they’d be hard-pressed to work out a long-term agreement with Byfield.  Accordingly, if they’re big spenders early into free agency, Byfield’s path could be charted to a bridge by default.  On the flip side, if they aren’t as active, then it suggests they could be open to the long-term agreement and pivot to fill another hole if they ultimately have to settle on a bridge agreement.

RFA Depth Decisions

Quite a few teams around the league have some decisions to make on the qualifying offer front and the Kings are no exception.  They have some depth pieces up front that have filled regular roles in recent years but could be a bit too pricey for what they can afford which makes them potential non-tender candidates.

The first of those is Blake Lizotte.  In 2022-23, he had 34 points, a pretty good return on a $1.675MM cap hit.  The second and final year of that contract didn’t go so well as he dropped to seven goals and eight assists in 62 games.  While he is a serviceable bottom-six forward who can play down the middle or on the wing, he also has arbitration eligibility where his 34-point output will play a factor and likely push his price tag past $2MM.  Would they be better off seeing what depth options come available in free agency and put the difference in salary towards filling another opening?

Then there’s Carl Grundstrom.  When healthy, he’s a capable fourth liner who plays with an edge and can chip in with a few goals.  There’s a role for that type of player but is there a role for one who would earn more than his $1.3MM qualifying offer through salary arbitration?  Fourth liners can be had for less on the open market so again, are they better off going with someone cheaper (either a free agent or a younger option like Akil Thomas or Alex Turcotte, both waiver-eligible going into 2024-25) and using the savings elsewhere?

The other RFA with a question mark is Arthur Kaliyev, albeit with a different question than the other two.  For him, it shouldn’t be a question of tender or not but rather should they be moving him even though his value is probably the lowest it has been in several years?  Kaliyev has reportedly made it known he wouldn’t mind moving on while Los Angeles was believed to be open to moving him at the trade deadline but clearly, a move never materialized.  Do they give him one more shot or take what they can get for him?  Either way, whoever he’s signing his next contract with, it’s probably going to be a low-cost one-year agreement.

Add Top Six Winger

There was a piece missing from the offense for most of this season with Viktor Arvidsson being limited to just 18 games due to multiple injuries, particularly his back.  He did well when he was in the lineup, notching 15 points but it seems likely that he’s going to move on.

This season, the Kings were a team in the middle of the pack offensively and probably could have landed a few spots higher than 16th with a healthy Arvidsson or Dubois not struggling as much as he did.  They should be able to try to do something to augment the attack in the coming weeks.  While they’re expected to talk about an extension with Matt Roy soon according to The Fourth Period’s Dennis Bernstein (Twitter link), they could opt to instead fill that spot on the back end internally with Brandt Clarke.  That in turn should give them enough money to add a top-six winger while adding a goalie and keeping their options open with Byfield in terms of what type of contract they’ll want to offer him.

With the other spots they have to fill, it’s likely that they’ll be priced out of the top free agents next month.  However, there are plenty of other options.  If they’re looking for a medium-term addition, Jonathan Marchessault could be an intriguing candidate if he doesn’t work out a deal to remain in Vegas.  Matt Duchene (who would likely be moved to the wing), Vladimir Tarasenko, and former King Tyler Toffoli all could work.  Jake DeBrusk and Teuvo Teravainen will command longer-term agreements but could be in their price range as well.  Adding one of those players could push the Kings a few spots higher in next season’s goal totals which could help them avoid having to squeak into the playoffs as they did this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Jets.

The Jets entered the season on a high note, knowing that franchise cornerstones Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele would be around long-term after signing matching seven-year, $59.5MM extensions. That excitement translated to their second-best season in franchise history, ending the season on an eight-game tear to match their record 52 wins set in the 2017-18 season.

However, they were the only team with home-ice advantage in the first round to lose their series, bowing out in five games to the Avalanche. With new head coach Scott Arniel in place after Rick Bowness announced his retirement, Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has some other big-ticket items to check off his list this summer to keep the Jets in contention.

Make A Call On Ehlers

28-year-old Dane Nikolaj Ehlers is heading into the final season of his $6MM AAV contract. After his worst regular-season offensive showing in five years and going without a goal in the playoffs, his trade (and extension) value is lower than in past summers.

That leaves Cheveldayoff in a pickle about whether to trade the longtime top-six fixture or work on keeping him in Winnipeg through his prime. Murat Ates of The Athletic reported last month that Cheveldayoff would at least explore moving the winger as the 2024 NHL Draft nears.

While his 2023-24 season may not have been up to his recent standards, by no means did Ehlers have a bad year. In fact, he’s routinely given the Jets great value for his $6MM cap hit over the life of his contract, which began back in 2018-19. Despite not seeing heavy power-play usage, keeping his average ice time under 16 minutes per game for a second straight season, he still managed 25 goals, 61 points and a +27 rating while playing in all 82 games.

His even-strength possession play has long been among the best on the Jets. He’s never had a season with a negative relative shot attempt share to his teammates, consistently tilting the ice in Winnipeg’s favor.

But for a team looking to be Stanley Cup contenders after a 110-point season, his poor playoff history is a rightful cause for concern. The 2014 ninth-overall pick has just four goals and 14 points in 37 postseason contests in Winnipeg with a -9 rating. None of those four goals came during this year’s first-round elimination.

As with any future UFA entering a contract year, the Jets have three options: trade him now, work on an extension when he’s eligible to sign one starting July 1 or play the waiting game. But his trade value won’t be as high in-season if they decide to move him as a rental – an acquiring team would certainly be willing to pay more for a full season of his services plus a longer window to discuss an extension.

Winnipeg has forward help coming in the form of recent first-round picks Colby Barlow and Rutger McGroarty, but not as soon as next season. Trading Ehlers leaves a major hole in their top nine as they attempt to reshape their roster, and it’s unlikely they’d be able to find a better value proposition to replace his role on the open market.

Re-Sign Monahan

One clear hole on the Jets’ depth chart is their second-line center. It’s unlikely that the organization trusts 22-year-old Cole Perfetti, who averaged fewer than 14 minutes per game last year and was a healthy scratch for most of their brief playoff run, to take over that role come opening night.

It was an issue last year, too, but the Jets addressed it weeks before the deadline by acquiring Sean Monahan from the Canadiens. Like many others, the 29-year-old struggled to produce in the playoffs, but he did end the regular season with 13 goals in 34 games for the Jets. Injuries have troubled him in the past, but he managed to stay healthy for all 83 games he was eligible to play in thanks to the trade and scored 59 points, his most in five years.

There aren’t many options on the open market considerably better than Monahan, especially for the money. Signing him in the next few weeks to keep him from becoming a UFA would likely result in a mid-term deal in the $5MM range annually.

That’ll likely be significantly cheaper than the top option on the market, Elias Lindholm, who’s coming off a steady decline in production over the past three seasons and scored fewer points per game than Monahan this year. Bringing Monahan back allows Arniel to keep deploying captain Adam Lowry in a comfortable third-line shutdown role, too, instead of forcing him to be more of a factor offensively.

Revamp Defense

Three defenders who logged significant time on the Winnipeg blue line last season – Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon and Colin Miller – are set to become UFAs next month. They may engage in more aggressive extension discussions with DeMelo and Miller, but reports last month indicated Dillon is unlikely to be back with the Jets.

If at all possible, the Jets should be taking the DeMelo negotiations down to the wire. He grew into a top-pairing role as a serviceable partner to Josh Morrissey this season, putting up 31 points in 82 games while logging 21:44 per night. His +46 rating is almost certainly inflated due to his quality of teammates (and the quality of his goaltender), but the Jets have still controlled 51.2% of expected goals with DeMelo on the ice since his acquisition from the Senators in 2020.

That still leaves more than a couple of spots up for grabs, though, especially considering 32-year-old Nate Schmidt and his $5.95MM cap hit appears to be a strong buyout candidate as he enters the final season of his deal. One of them will likely be earmarked for 2019 first-round pick Ville Heinola, who’s primed for more extended NHL minutes next season after three years of quality top-pairing play for their AHL affiliate. Outside of Morrissey, Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg also project to be regulars, with Logan Stanley in the mix as well, although the hulking 26-year-old was a healthy scratch for most of last season.

If they can’t extend DeMelo, that leaves a hole alongside Morrissey that will need to be filled either via free agency or via an Ehlers trade. Other than Pionk, they don’t have any other NHL-ready right-shot defenders, and he’s not suited for top-pairing duties. Brandon Montour, Brett Pesce and Matt Roy are the top right-shot options on the UFA market. Expect Cheveldayoff to engage with most, if not all of them, if they still have a vacancy along Morrissey come July 1.

Back-Up Hellebuyck

The Jets don’t need to worry much about “the other guy” when Hellebuyck is consistently throwing up save percentages north of .920 while starting 60-plus games, even as the league average for both dwindles. But Winnipeg has also been able to bank a few extra points in the standings each season thanks to strong play from Hellebuyck’s backups, which have been a rotating cast of Laurent Brossoit, Eric Comrie and David Rittich over the past few seasons.

Brossoit has done so with the most consistency lately, returning to the organization in free agency last summer after a brief stop (and a Stanley Cup win) in Vegas. He was excellent in his limited action this season, posting a 15-5-2 record with a .927 SV% in 22 starts and one relief appearance. He’s unlikely to return as he searches for a chance at more starts on the open market this summer, though.

Winnipeg doesn’t have any young internal options ready for promotion yet, so that means they’ll be hunting for Hellebuyck’s backup on the UFA market for the third summer in a row. Casey DeSmith, Kevin Lankinen and Scott Wedgewood are the best/most consistent options with experience that would likely settle for 20-25 starts next year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

For most of the season, the Islanders were teetering on the edge of the postseason and eventually, GM Lou Lamoriello opted to make a change, hiring Patrick Roy to take over behind the bench.  New York got on a bit of a hot streak toward the end of the year to get into the playoffs but they were quickly eliminated by Carolina.  Now, the Isles need to try to add to their group in the hopes of grabbing a firmer hold of a playoff spot next season.  Here’s what they should be looking to accomplish in the coming months.

Create Cap Space

Let’s run the numbers first.  Per CapFriendly, New York has a little over $6MM in cap room for next season and a handful of roster spots to fill.  If they did nothing, they could ice a cap-compliant lineup but it wouldn’t necessarily be any better than the one that struggled for most of the regular season and went out quickly in the playoffs.  If they want to make an impactful addition, they need to find a way to get the money to make that happen.

Anders Lee had a tough year, seeing his output dip to 37 points which isn’t a great return on a $7MM price tag through the 2025-26 campaign.  While it would be hard to see Lamoriello move his captain, it’s worth noting his full no-trade protection drops to a 15-team one on July 1st.  Jean-Gabriel Pageau has two years left at $5MM and is more of a third liner at this point.  Meanwhile, Kyle Palmieri is entering the final year of his deal at a $5MM price tag.  That said, he’s also coming off a 30-goal campaign so while moving him would open more flexibility, it’d also create a bigger gap to try to fill offensively.

The good news for a possible Palmieri move is that his value has gone up to the point where they could move him without retaining or needing to incentivize a team to take him on.  The bad news is that this likely can’t be said for Pageau or Lee.  This is where adding the extra second-round pick in a rare May swap of draft picks with Chicago is notable.  While it’s possible that it was done to give them a chip to dangle to add someone, it’s also possible that they wind up using it as the incentive for a team to take on a player, similar to what they did to move Josh Bailey last summer.

Regardless of how they get it done though, if Lamoriello wants to add to his team, he needs to find a way to add some cap space first.

Extension Talks

Lamoriello is known to like to use the leverage when he has it which resulted in both Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov signing below-market contracts back in 2022.  They’ve benefited from that the last two seasons and will again in 2024-25 but they’ll have to pay the piper after that as both players will be restricted free agents with arbitration eligibility next summer.  With the way both have progressed, it might make sense for the Isles to look into potentially extending one or both players this summer.

Dobson’s is the more prominent case.  After narrowly missing out on the 50-point mark for the second straight year in 2022-23, the 24-year-old blew past that and then some, putting up 70 points in 79 games.  Perhaps more importantly, he grabbed hold of the number one spot on the depth chart and ran with it, logging over 24 minutes a night.  He has established himself as a legitimate top-pairing defender at a minimum and with another year or two like this one, he could become a true number one blueliner.

These are the types of players that are extremely hard to come by, particularly right-shot defenders.  Accordingly, messing around and trying to low-ball in negotiations probably won’t fly so expect New York to put their best foot forward pretty quickly.  His current salary and AAV is $4MM and it’s safe to say that his next deal will at least double that and likely more.  If they wait on doing this now and Dobson has another big year, it’s possible that he could surpass Mathew Barzal’s $9.15MM AAV to become the most expensive player on the team.

Romanov won’t be getting anywhere near that level but he has become an important part of their top four after being acquired at the 2022 draft from Montreal.  He doesn’t have the offense to command top dollar like Dobson will but as someone who logs around 20 minutes a night, kills penalties, and brings a physical edge to the table, he’ll still be well-positioned for a fair-sized raise on his current $2.5MM AAV and should be in the $4MM range on his next contract.  This is a case where there isn’t as much risk in waiting as there might be with Dobson but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lamoriello try to get this one done early as well.

Add Scoring Help

Scoring goals has been an issue for the Islanders in recent years.  The last time they were better than 20th in goals was back in 2017-18 and their roster as currently constructed doesn’t have a lot of firepower outside their top six.  (And if Palmieri ends up being the cap casualty, they’ll lose another scoring threat.)  Finding a way to add to that will be critical.

They’re hoping that Maxim Tsyplakov will help somewhat on that front after a 31-goal breakout year in the KHL that saw him get interest from at least a dozen teams before signing with New York.  But asking him to step in and play in the top six right away would be putting a lot of pressure on him.  Playing in the bottom six and ideally shoring up the offensive potential of that group would certainly help, however.

But that’s probably a small improvement at most.  A legitimate top-six option is needed to give this group enough firepower to have a chance to stay in the playoff mix next season.  If they’re confident they can extend Brock Nelson (who’s also extension-eligible this summer) which would allow them to keep Barzal on the wing, they wouldn’t necessarily have to look at options down the middle which is ideal since the depth on the wing in this free agent class is better than the center group.

But again, with barely $6MM in cap space, that can easily be spent on one impactful player on the open market without doing anything about filling out the rest of their roster.  Accordingly, they’ll have to get creative to add the scoring depth they need.

Shore Up Defensive Depth

This was a tough year for the Islanders from an injury perspective, especially when it came to their back end.  Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Scott Mayfield (three of their top five blueliners) all missed at least 24 games due to injuries which put their defensive depth to the test.  After some early struggles, Lamoriello added veterans Robert Bortuzzo and Mike Reilly to try to stabilize things, moves that worked out relatively well considering the low acquisition price.

However, their depth is about to get thinned out.  Both Bortuzzo and Reilly are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer as are Sebastian Aho and Robin Salo (who has seen NHL action in two of the last three years).

It’s possible that Reilly returns if he’s willing to sign for around the $1MM he made this season.  Aho has earned a raise from the $825K he made for the past two years which could price his way out of what the Isles can afford to pay a seventh defender.  In the minors, Salo joins Paul LaDue as veterans on expiring deals so work needs to be done there as well.

Lamoriello might need to sign three or four blueliners in the coming weeks to ensure he has sufficient depth in case injuries strike once again.  As a result, expect to see several blueliners added early in free agency or on the trade front in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Tampa Bay.

The Lightning managed to make the postseason for a seventh year in a row, but further confirmation that their contending window is coming to a close came swiftly via their cross-state rivals. The Panthers, now just one win away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Final, dispatched them in a quick five-game series, their first win in three playoff series against the Bolts. Now, with back-to-back non-elite regular seasons and a pair of first-round eliminations, general manager Julien BriseBois needs to pull off some tricks to keep the franchise from spiraling into mediocrity after its greatest stretch of success in franchise history.

Re-Sign Stamkos

BriseBois already checked one major item off his offseason checklist, acquiring some much-needed defensive help by acquiring former Bolt Ryan McDonagh from the Predators. Unfortunately, that’s created a temporary cap crunch that makes contract extension negotiations with captain Steven Stamkos much more difficult.

It isn’t the first time the future Hall-of-Famer has gotten dangerously close to becoming a UFA. Negotiations were testy after a five-year bridge deal expired in 2016, and he waited until 48 hours before the market opened to sign an eight-year, $68MM extension. With that deal now run out, Lightning fans will hope it doesn’t take that long again. It wouldn’t be a good sign for a player who, despite expressing a strong desire to remain in the only NHL market he’s ever known, was disappointed with the lack of extension talks last summer.

He’d likely take a discount on his market value, somewhere in the $8MM range annually, to stay in Tampa. But their current projected $5MM of cap space with a minimum of one other roster spot to fill likely won’t cut it, especially since he’s not eligible for performance bonuses.

They’ll need to free up space to get it done, something the rest of this checklist examines in more detail. But even as Stamkos’ even-strength numbers begin to dip, he’s a bonafide top-six winger that they don’t have the offensive depth to shoulder the loss of. He still managed to rack up over a point per game this season, recording yet another 40-goal campaign with 81 points in 79 contests. The 34-year-old was also their goal leader in the playoffs, lighting the lamp five times in five games.

Offload Bloated Forward Contracts

The Lightning reached three straight Stanley Cup Finals largely because of their cost-effective depth scoring. BriseBois has failed to continue that trend in the past two years thanks to a pair of ill-advised acquisitions.

One was much more harmful than the other, and he’s already on the trade block. BriseBois gave up five draft picks, including a first-rounder, to pick up grinder Tanner Jeannot from Nashville in a trade last year. He’s managed just eight goals and 18 points in 75 games for the Bolts since the deal and spent a good portion of the 2023-24 campaign on the shelf. Averaging fringe third-line minutes, they can’t afford to keep him at his $2.67MM cap hit next season. There’s still optimism around the league that he can rebound to his 24-goal form with the Preds two years ago, but with a 16-team no-trade list kicking in on July 1, they’ll need to move on from him in short order.

There’s also the matter of Conor Sheary, who BriseBois inked to a three-year, $6MM deal with trade protection in free agency last summer. He managed only four goals and 15 points in 57 games this season and was a healthy scratch for most of the stretch run, including all five of their playoff games. His spot in the lineup was replaced by minor-league call-up Mitchell Chaffee, who’s already inked a cost-effective extension with an $800K cap hit. His $2MM cap hit can’t be afforded for a player who provided league-minimum value this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see BriseBois offload him in a pure cap-dump transaction. He has a full no-trade clause at the moment, although it downgrades to a 16-team no-trade list on July 1.

Combined, the moves would bring the Lightning’s cap space to nearly $10MM, enough to re-sign Stamkos and add a low-cost depth scoring forward on the free agent market to help replace Jeannot and Sheary.

Get Another LTIR Contract

Having retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract on the books for the past two seasons was beneficial to the Bolts. After confirming he wouldn’t play again due to injury, Tampa acquired the Cup-winning defenseman’s $6.875MM cap hit from Chicago, placing him on long-term injured reserve for the past three seasons to help give them in-season spending flexibility.

That contract has now run out, though, and they’re entering the summer without anybody available to help fudge their spending limit. That doesn’t mean they can’t pull off another trade to acquire a dead contract, though. As part of their purchase of the Coyotes’ hockey operations, NHL Utah is picking up the final two seasons of injured center Bryan Little’s contract, which carries a $7.86MM cap hit. With Utah GM Bill Armstrong having full permission from ownership to spend to the salary cap, unlike years past in Arizona, Little’s deal becomes an inhibition for Utah rather than a benefit to help them hit the cap floor.

If they have interest in selling the final two seasons of Little’s contract, expect the Lightning to engage. It wouldn’t mean much for their off-season spending, but placing him on LTIR once the season starts could give them some slight in-season recall and trade flexibility. The few other LTIR-bound contracts around the league are proving advantageous to their current clubs, such as the Golden Knights’ Robin Lehner, so Little might be BriseBois’ only option if he wants to go that route.

Upgrade Backup Goaltending

Tampa struggled defensively, ranking below average in goals against, but it wasn’t all on their skaters. Star netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy had a remarkably pedestrian season after recovering from preseason back surgery, allowing more goals than expected based on the shot quality he faced for the first time since 2015-16, per MoneyPuck. His .900 SV% was also right in line with the league average.

The four-time Vezina finalist could easily return to form after a healthy offseason, but relying on him to carry elite numbers through 60-65 appearances as he enters his 30s will become unrealistic. Throwing league-minimum backup Jonas Johansson to the wolves to start the season didn’t have good results, and he finished the campaign with a poor .890 SV% (that was still above his career average) in 26 appearances.

Waiving Johansson and spending even just $500K more on a more proven backup option in free agency could make a major difference in the standings for Tampa next season in an increasingly competitive Atlantic Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Washington.

The Capitals were able to pull off a late-season comeback to reach the postseason but they were quickly dispatched in a four-game sweep by the Rangers, ending their year on a low note.  Washington is a team that’s more or less stuck in the middle so GM Brian MacLellan will need to figure out how to get this team moving in a more concrete direction.  There are a couple of different paths to take obviously and their checklist will reflect both routes accordingly.

Examine Goalie Trade Options

This season was somewhat of a changing of the guard for Washington’s goaltenders.  Darcy Kuemper was signed to be the long-term starter while Charlie Lindgren was brought in during the 2022 offseason as a low-cost backup.  They flipped roles this year with Lindgren cementing himself as the starter while Kuemper struggled, landing in the second-string role as a result.

While both netminders are under contract for next season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see MacLellan try to shake things up.  However, the route they take – retool or rebuild – will indicate which netminder would be the right one to move.

If they’re looking to win now, they might want to look at the market for Kuemper to see if there’s a taker for a swap of underachieving goalies.  This could be an offseason that sees more musical chairs than usual this summer when it comes to goaltenders and there are a handful of teams with veterans who have multiple years left on their contracts with a price tag in the range of Kuemper’s $5.25MM.  Since Kuemper (who does have a 10-team no-trade list as of Saturday, down from 15) doesn’t have positive trade value on his own, perhaps taking a flyer on someone else in a swap of bad deals could help their situation between the pipes.

On the flip side, if they pivot to a rebuild, then the idea of moving Lindgren stands out.  Signing him to an extension now would carry some risks considering he’s coming off a career year but here’s a goalie who’s underpaid even by backup standards with a cap hit of just $1.1MM.  With one year left on that contract, he could have some decent trade value for a team looking for a low-cost option in goal.  With both Hunter Shepard and Clay Stevenson dominating at AHL Hershey, the Capitals could move forward with one of them splitting time with Kuemper or his replacement (they could look at the first swap idea in either route) and assess from there.

MacLellan suggested earlier this offseason that he’s planning as if both netminders will be back for next season.  He should at least be exploring what other options might be out there in the coming weeks.

Re-Sign McMichael

After taking care of Aliaksei Protas earlier in the season, the Capitals got one of their young forwards signed early.  They didn’t do that with Connor McMichael and therefore will need to get him signed over the next few months.

It has been an interesting first three years for the 2019 first-round pick.  McMichael held his own in his rookie year in a fourth-line role but then in 2022-23, he was dispatched back to the minors for most of the season where he had a chance to play the offensive role he’s more suited to, not to mention getting in a long playoff run with the Bears.  That helped propel him back to the NHL for this season and the 23-year-old was more impactful, notching 18 goals and 15 assists in 30 games while averaging just under 16 minutes a night.  That goal total was good for a tie for fourth, a pretty good outcome for someone who played all of six NHL games the year before.

Generally speaking, this is the type of player profile where it makes a lot of sense to do a bridge contract.  Here’s a player who only has a couple of years of NHL experience under his belt and likely hasn’t reached his offensive ceiling.  More often than not, a short-term second contract is a straightforward solution.  However, they gave Protas five years at $3.375MM per season with even less experience and less of a track record offensively and he would have been a logical bridge candidate as well.  That means the potential for McMichael to sign a longer-term agreement certainly is there.

If it winds up being a conventional bridge contract, it should check in somewhere around the $2MM range, perhaps slightly backloaded to guarantee a higher qualifying offer at the end.  That would also give them more money to work with if they’re looking to add to their roster this summer.  Conversely, a bridge contract that buys up some UFA time likely pushes past the $4MM mark.  If he develops as they hope, that would be a team-friendly pact before long but it would take away from their cap space this summer.  If they decide to retool though, they may look more favorably on a longer-term agreement as they won’t need as much cap space for next season so they can more comfortably pay more now to potentially save later.

Utilize LTIR

This time last year, Nicklas Backstrom had done relatively well finishing up 2022-23 after returning from hip resurfacing surgery and while his $9.2MM price tag was high for the role he could fill, he could still fill a role.  However, just eight games into the season, he shut it down, missing the rest of the season due to ongoing issues with his hip.  At this point, it seems highly unlikely that he’ll be able to return.  Accordingly, the Capitals can go into offseason LTIR and use that money either in free agency or on the trade front.

There’s also the potential for that number to go up.  T.J. Oshie has been playing through some significant back pain and mused about the potential of not trying to play through it next season given the issues it gives him in his day-to-day life.  If the determination is made that he won’t play either, that’s another $5.75MM that could be added to the LTIR pool.  Given the potential that he could return, it’s unlikely that money would be utilized this summer (it might be more of an in-season decision) but it’s something that will need to be considered.

Now, how they use LTIR will be influenced by their direction.  If they want to add win-now pieces, they can utilize it that way; we’ll get to some possible needs on that front shortly.  But if the focus is on the future, then they can try to become a broker and take on a contract along with some future assets to help in the long term.

How much they have to spend remains to be seen with Oshie’s situation.  But they will have LTIR at their disposal this summer if they want to use it.

Add Scoring Help

While this obviously is more of an issue if Washington is trying to push for another playoff spot next season, it’s an area that’s going to need to be addressed at some point.  It wasn’t that long ago that the Capitals were one of the higher-scoring teams in the NHL.  However, they only managed to finish 28th in that regard this season and with Backstrom likely not returning, Oshie’s status in jeopardy, and even long-time middleman Evgeny Kuznetsov now gone in a late-season trade, a good chunk of the previous core isn’t going to be around anymore.

This is something that Backstrom’s LTIR situation should help them with.  By the time they re-sign McMichael and their other free agents, they’re basically going to primarily have just Backstrom’s (and maybe Oshie’s) money to play with.

How should that money be spent?  They’re not in a spot where they need to be picky.  While Dylan Strome has fared rather well in his two seasons with the Caps, he’s not a true number one center in an ideal world.  McMichael still isn’t overly proven at the NHL level.  With Backstrom and Kuznetsov out of the picture, there’s a definite need to add an impact piece down the middle.  Ideally, that would be someone with some offensive creativity which could help unlock some of the sluggish scoring on the wing.

Speaking of that, the Capitals had just three wingers surpass the 15-goal mark last season.  One is Alex Ovechkin who overcame a terrible start to put up 31 tallies but age is catching up with him.  Another is Tom Wilson, a player who hasn’t reached 25 goals in a season in his career; he’s more of a secondary contributor from a points perspective.  The third was Anthony Mantha who put up 20 goals before being moved to Vegas a little before the trade deadline.  Suffice it to say, there’s a definite need for a scoring winger or two.

If MacLellan has any designs on trying to get back to the playoffs in 2024-25, he will need to find a way to add multiple impact point producers to this roster.  If the plan is to retool, they can push that down the road temporarily but it’s an area that will still need to be addressed sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

The St. Louis Blues entered a new era this season, firing Stanley Cup-winning head coach Craig Berube and replacing him with rookie head coach Drew Bannister, who the team has since signed to a two-year head coach contract. The move away from Berube has meant a move away from the rough-and-tugged, dump-and-chase style of hockey that Berube adores. That was great news for St. Louis’ skill players, with each of Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Pavel Buchnevich seeing a significant uptick in their scoring under Bannister. But the scoring didn’t trickle down the lineup, with even the most offensive defensemen like Justin Faulk and Torey Krug being held to moot point totals. The Blues were helped along by strong goaltending down the stretch, but they’ll need to bolster their offense throughout the lineup and maintain the momentum of their top names, should they want to make their return to the postseason next season.

Play The Field At Forward

The Blues are in a rare position of not needing to re-sign many NHL talents. They have just five pending free agents on their NHL roster, while many other teams deal with 10 or more. Of St. Louis’ pending names, none should command too high of a price tag – with defenseman Scott Perunovich’s looming cap hit of a few million likely their most expensive free agent. That means the Blues will be able to dedicate most of their $15MM available cap space to the free-agent market.

The Blues are noticeably lacking a second-line center after losing Ryan O’Reilly. That role was meant to be filled by Kevin Hayes, though he needed the support of Brayden Schenn after posting a career-low 29 points in his first 79 games in St. Louis. Schenn and Hayes are both fine depth centers, and each offer valuable veteran experience, but the Blues’ top-six doesn’t bring the same punch with them involved. St. Louis needs to instead target a player who can live up to the spotlight Robert Thomas brings to the Blues top-end.

St. Louis could prioritize the stout two-way play brought by O’Reilly through market options like Chandler Stephenson, who’s spent the last three seasons serving as the fundamental base from which the Vegas Golden Knights stars can spring from. Stephenson is a skilled and diligent centerman with Stanley Cup-winning precedent who could beautifully fill St. Louis’ second-line vacancy. The team could also look to prioritize scoring and take a run at free agents Jonathan Marchessault or Elias Lindholm – or even dip into the Martin Necas trade market. All three players looked more comfortable on the wing at points of this season, though St. Louis’ lineup flexibility should let them construct an impactful middle-six around any new addition.

Revamp The Defense

St. Louis will face a similar order on defense. They have just one NHL defender under 30 currently signed – depth defenseman Tyler Tucker. That’s a precarious spot to position a blue-line, especially with evidence of age catching up to Faulk, Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy. The Blues got a breath of fresh air with Scott Perunovich, who played in his first healthy professional season after making his NHL debut in 2021. He recorded 17 assists in 54 games – modest scoring but still the third-highest assists-per-game of any Blues defenders, behind Faulk and Krug.

Perunovich should be poised for a bigger role next season, helping to support the decreasing play of Leddy, but St. Louis still seems absent one defiant piece on their blue-line. The free agent market is luckily full of talented defenders, with each of Shayne Gostisbehere and Dylan DeMelo likely to offer value on the open market. St. Louis could also be a fantastic landing spot for Vancouver Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek, who posted a career-high 48 points in 81 games this season. He’s due for a hefty increase from his $4.4MM cap hit this season, potentially pricing him out of what’s bound to be an eventful summer for Vancouver. Hronek would provide invaluable depth ahead of Krug and Parayko in the lineup, while also masking St. Louis’ near neglect of right-shot defensemen in the draft under Doug Armstrong’s reign.

Bringing in Hronek, or another top-end right-defenseman, would also make Parayko much more expendable. The Blues have danced around Parayko trade rumors for much of the last few seasons, though no official offer has come to fruition. Parayko, 31, is set to begin the third season of an eight-year extension signed in 2022. The deal carries an annual cap hit of $6.5MM and a full no-trade clause through its first six seasons. The pricey cap hit, trade protection, and Parayko’s history with injuries all contribute to challenging trade negotiations. His role in St. Louis’ top-four has been just as important of a variable – something that a new signee would alleviate, though the Blues may still face an uphill battle in dealing Parayko’s contract.

Embrace The Youth

St. Louis brought in a wave of talented young players in the early 2010s – welcoming Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Jake Allen all in the same swoop. Those additions carried the Blues through the mid-2010s, and the additions of Thomas and Kyrou in 2018 refreshed the lineup well enough to carry things now into the mid-2020s. But time is getting away from the Blues lineup, and they’re in need of yet another wave of young talent.

Luckily, Armstrong has built up one of St. Louis’ best prospect pools in recent memory. The list is headlined by forward Dalibor Dvorsky, who posted 45 goals and 88 points in 52 OHL games this season – making an incredibly loud statement in his first season in North America. The 2023 10th-overall selection should get every opportunity he can to crack the NHL lineup this summer, and will be eligible to play in the AHL next season should he not be fully ready. If they can’t get Dvorsky, St. Louis can relish in Zachary Bolduc as a second choice. Bolduc played through his official rookie season this year, posting five goals and nine points in 25 NHL games. He added 25 points in 50 AHL appearances – a slow start to his professional career, but one that was filled with exciting moments where Bolduc’s skill, strength, and shot really shined through. He’ll continue working alongside Zach Dean to vie for an everyday role on the NHL lineup.

The Blues won’t have that same enthusiasm for their defense, which is significantly more thinned out behind their aging core. Matthew Kessel showed a stout defensive ability in his rookie season this year, adding seven points in 39 NHL games, though his ability to make an impact every shift seemed a bit limited. He should headline St. Louis’ defensive prospects looking for opportunity, while Leo Loof and Theo Lindstein hope to make strong impressions at training camp.

Consistent additions of talented youth has underlined St. Louis’ success throughout this century. They’re clearly in need once again, missing any sort of X-factor outside of their top line last season. The Blues have the pieces to refresh things once again, though they’ll have to hope their top prospects can live up to the opportunity.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

Amid a seven-year postseason drought, the Red Wings performed admirably during the 2023-24 NHL season, playing meaningful hockey until the last game of the regular season. Detroit is on the cusp of returning to the Stanley Cup Playoffs as early as next year but will have to make some changes to realize that goal after taking a major step forward in their rebuild. General Manager Steve Yzerman is now at a point to put the finishing touches on a playoff-caliber roster this summer after completing much of the heavy lifting already.

Re-Sign The Youngsters

One of the major themes of the 2023-24 season for Detroit was the emergence of winger Lucas Raymond as a legitimate top-line player and confirmation that defenseman Moritz Seider can lead a defensive core. The Red Wings will have the opportunity to keep both in the Motor City until the 2031-32 NHL season with both players seeing their entry-level contracts expire on July 1st.

Even though the team carried big names up front such as Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane, and Alex DeBrincat, Raymond still led the way offensively for Detroit, scoring 31 goals and 72 points over a full 82-game season. Raymond was irreplaceable down the stretch, scoring 14 goals and 21 points in his last 18 games, keeping the Red Wings afloat in the Eastern Conference wild-card race.

On defense, claiming that Seider has shouldered a heavy load through his first three seasons is an understatement. Seider has not missed a game and has averaged 22:51 of ice time over his entry-level deal since his debut in the 2021-22 season. Even though Seider passes the eye test; his advanced numbers have been more than subpar throughout his career. According to Natural Stat Trick, Seider carried a CorsiFor% of 45.64% which is not a sustainable metric for a top defenseman. However, to push back on Seider’s dismal possession numbers, at even strength, 61% of Seider’s shift starts came in the defensive zone which has made shot creation much more difficult on his part.

Seider’s numbers are reflective of the fact that he is one of the only members of Detroit’s defensive core that can be trusted in the defensive zone against other teams’ top lines and his numbers have suffered from it. If the Red Wings can procure another defenseman to take the pressure off of Seider, his game should flourish in the aftermath.

If the Red Wings are going to sign either player to a long-term deal this summer it is most likely going to be Seider as right-handed defensemen of his caliber do not necessarily grow on trees. For Raymond, a bridge deal seems advantageous for both sides as Raymond would set himself up for a bigger payday in the future and Detroit can confirm that Raymond is the player shown throughout the 2023-24 regular season before doling out serious cash.

Assuming the Red Wings follow that method, Seider’s next contract should check in just south of Owen Power’s seven-year, $58.45MM contract signed with the Buffalo Sabres last year, while Raymond’s should check in at $6MM-$6.5MM on a two- or three-year deal.

Find Another Star

For each team that narrowly missed the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs the season will be full of several “what ifs?”. For the Red Wings in particular, that question revolves solely around Larkin and how the team performs when he is and isn’t in the lineup.

In the 68 games that Larkin suited up for Detroit this season, the team held a 37-22-9 record while carrying a strong 3.54 GF/G with a 3.24 GA/G. In his absence, however, the team produced a 4-10-0 record and only a dismal 2.64 GF/G and an even worse 3.87 GA/G. This season made clear that given how the team plays without Larkin, the Red Wings must procure a player who can drive the team to wins even when Larkin cannot be in the lineup.

On the unrestricted free agent market this summer, an ideal candidate for this role would be the current captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning Steven Stamkos. For the past 16 years, Stamkos has been a foundational part of the Lightning organization as he’s won two Stanley Cup Championships in four total appearances. From 2010-2018, Yzerman formerly served as General Manager of the Lightning and signed Stamkos to two separate contracts worth a combined total of $105.5MM over the last 13 seasons. Yzerman may look to poach his former player from the Lightning to fill this void for Detroit given their previous history over much of Stamkos’ career in the NHL.

Outside of the free agent market this summer, Yzerman may even feel confident procuring this player via trade with the Red Wings stockpiling so much young talent over his tenure in the front office. As with any team coming out of a rebuild, there will still be some untouchables in the prospect pool for Detroit. Still, Yzerman may be willing to part with Jonatan Berggren, Marco Kasper, William Wallinder, or the 15th overall pick of the 2024 NHL Draft if the price is right.

Stabilize The Defensive Core

Surprisingly, even at 23 years old, Seider represents the longest-tenured member of the Red Wings on defense already. Over the last two offseasons, Detroit has brought in Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, Olli Maatta, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Jeff Petry, with Jake Walman coming a little over two years ago via trade.

With the emergence of Simon Edvinsson, and the eventual call-up of Axel Sandin-Pellikka, the Red Wings are once again in a position to thin out their defensive unit. Not only do they need to thin out the saturation but they also need to procure a solid top-four defenseman to lighten the burden on Seider.

As good as he was during the regular season, it is likely in Detroit’s best interest to let Gostisbehere walk this summer as well as scan the trade market for both Holl and Petry. By doing that the Red Wings would be able to keep the top unit of Walman and Seider together, shift Chiarot and Maatta into the bottom pairing, and sign a top-four right-handed defenseman this summer to put next to Edvinsson.

Outside of the players mentioned, young defenseman Albert Johansson is also expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp after back-to-back solid seasons for Detroit’s AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins. As a left-handed shooting defenseman, Johansson’s play at the beginning of next year could conceivably allow the Red Wings to move Chiarot to the press box on most nights.

One player not necessarily on the trade block but who could become available for Detroit this offseason at the right price is St. Louis Blues defenseman Scott Perunovich. Perunovich is a solid puck-moving defenseman who has accrued 23 assists in 73 career games for the Blues. The Red Wings could give Perunovich much more responsibility in a future role as he appears blocked from ever receiving top-four minutes in St. Louis.

Complete The Tandem In Net

Lastly, Detroit is once again in a position to iron out their goaltending tandem before top prospect Sebastian Cossa can make his debut at the NHL level. Not only does Detroit have Cossa waiting in the wings but netminder Trey Augustine of Michigan State University has become a legitimate goaltending prospect in his own right.

Over the last three offseasons, Detroit has taken flyers on the likes of Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso; neither of which have turned out too positively for the franchise. However, the team did see solid play from Alex Lyon this year which has given the organization some hope that he can be a regular part of the goaltending tandem once again.

Because of their goaltending prospects, Detroit is not in a position to go out and acquire a goalie such as Juuse Saros or Jacob Markstrom this summer but they do need to improve upon their tandem. As far as the options available on the free agent market, Detroit could look to give Laurent Brossoit a larger role than what he has been used to or take a flyer on Ilya Samsonov, hoping for a bounce-back season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Minnesota.

After making the playoffs last season, expectations were relatively high for the Wild this season.  They weren’t quite supposed to be at the top of the division but were squarely expected to be in the mix.  That didn’t happen, resulting in an early-season coaching change.  While they rebounded somewhat under John Hynes, they still came up short of making it back to the postseason.  Now, GM Bill Guerin will be looking to make some tweaks to his roster although the bigger swings may have to come a little farther down the road.  Here’s what should be on his checklist this summer.

Examine Gustavsson Trade Options

What a difference a year can make.  This time last year, Filip Gustavsson was coming off finishing second in the NHL in GAA (2.10) and SV% (.931), albeit in just 39 games.  Still, he did well enough to earn a three-year, $11.25MM contract after filing for salary arbitration and it looked like their goalie situation was relatively settled, at least for the short term.

This season, it was a different story.  The 25-year-old saw his GAA jump by nearly a full goal per game, going to 3.06 while losing 32 points off his save percentage.  He still picked up a few extra starts but simply failed to lock down the number one job as they were hoping for.  That likely played a role in their decision to give Marc-Andre Fleury a one-year, $2.5MM extension last month for his 21st and final NHL campaign.

By all accounts, it appears that they feel Jesper Wallstedt, long viewed as their goalie of the future, is ready for full-time NHL duty.  Clearly, they’re not trading Fleury (who has a no-move clause) after just signing him.  Accordingly, unless they plan to carry three goalies (or shuttle Wallstedt) back and forth between Minnesota and AHL Iowa, it appears that Gustavsson may be the odd man out.

Early indications are that this could be a summer where there is more activity than usual on the trade front when it comes to goaltenders which is good news and bad news for the Wild.  It’s good in that there will be more teams looking for options but with a larger supply of netminders potentially available, they’ll be hard-pressed to command a return of some significance, especially with Gustavsson coming off a down season.  Guerin will need to determine what the best offer will be in the coming weeks and if that’s worth making a move now or potentially carrying three goalies into next season and see what the market looks like as the year goes on.

Work On Faber Extension

Last season, Brock Faber joined Minnesota for the final two games of the regular season and then suited up in all six playoff games in their opening-round loss to Dallas.  He had a limited role in the postseason – perfectly understandable for someone just coming out of college – but showed enough to make it look like he could hold his own over a full NHL season in 2023-24.

Let’s just say he did better than that.  A lot better, in fact.  Instead of just holding his own, he became the Wild’s top defenseman pretty quickly.  Not having Jared Spurgeon for most of the year due to injury certainly expedited that ascension but Faber more than earned the extra work as well.  The end result was the 21-year-old leading all Minnesota blueliners with 47 points, 20 more than second-place Jonas Brodin.  He logged nearly 25 minutes a night which not only led all Minnesota players but he had the sixth-highest ATOI in the entire NHL.  He played big minutes on both special teams units as well.  This is not the type of workload you’d expect a rookie who is now barely a year removed from playing college to be carrying.

The fact that he did so while playing on an entry-level deal was huge for the Wild.  It’s great news for next season as well.  But after that, the price tag is going to skyrocket and justifiably so.

The final year of Faber’s contract begins on July 1st, making him eligible to sign an extension at that time.  While there is definitely some risk in handing out what would be one of the richest extensions in franchise history to a player with one full season under his belt, there’s also some risk in not signing him now and then Faber going and having an even better effort in 2024-25 in which case the price would go even higher.

Minnesota’s camp will likely try to use recent deals that Jake Sanderson ($8.05MM) and Owen Power ($8.35MM) signed as comparables but Faber has been more impactful in his early career which means his camp could push for $9MM or more, especially knowing that the deal won’t kick in until 2025-26 when the salary cap could be higher than $90MM.  A new agreement doesn’t necessarily have to get done in the coming months but it stands to reason that this will be one of the higher priorities for Guerin.

Free Up Cap Space

The Wild have been operating well below the salary cap for the past several years thanks to the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise back in 2021.  It was an outcome that Guerin knew he was getting into but he wanted to reshape the roster.  While there are still five years left on their respective buyout charges, next season is the last of the whopping charges with each player carrying a dead cap charge of $7.371MM.  (That number drops to $833K starting in 2025-26 which is much more manageable although a good chunk of the savings will be going to Faber.)

Guerin was aggressive with signing some veteran players to early extensions last season which has left Minnesota with minimal space to work with this summer assuming none of them are moved.  Per CapFriendly, they have less than $6MM left in cap room with a handful of roster spots to fill.  While it’s worth noting that of their pending free agents, none project to command a pricey contract, they also won’t have a lot of flexibility to work with to add to their roster.

Accordingly, finding a way to open up a bit more flexibility would certainly help.  If they move Gustavsson and promote Wallstedt, that would free up $2.825MM to work with.  Could they find a home for the final year and $2MM left on Marcus Johansson’s deal?  Even flipping Jonathon Merrill’s $1.2MM elsewhere and carrying a cheaper seventh defender would give them some extra room.  Every little bit is going to make a difference if they want to try to add an impact piece in the coming months.

Add Top-Six Forward

Speaking of impact pieces, they need one up front.  After being in the top five in scoring in 2021-22, the Wild haven’t cracked the top 20 in that department over the last two seasons.  While Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek gave them a solid 105 goals combined, the rest of their forwards tallied just 108 combined.  That means the secondary scoring wasn’t there consistently enough.

Minnesota will be hoping there will be some internal growth to help bridge some of that gap.  Marco Rossi had a solid rookie year and they’ll be counting on more from him.  They’ll hope that Liam Ohgren and Marat Khusnutdinov can become capable producers in their first full seasons in North America and if that happens, their offense could get back toward the middle of the pack.

That said, they could certainly benefit from a more proven addition to the lineup.  At a minimum, that player would serve as a bridge piece for some of the youngsters (a group that also includes Danila Yurov who could debut late in the 2024-25 campaign) to have some time to step up.  If some of those younger pieces are ready sooner than later, then the veteran helps create a third scoring line which could only help things.

The good news is that there are plenty of these types of players available in free agency.  Someone like David Perron would fit if they want just a short-term addition to let the youngsters get a bit more time to develop.  Same with Adam Henrique if they want to add down the middle.  If they want to aim higher, Tyler Toffoli, Teuvo Teravainen, and Vladimir Tarasenko stand out on the wing while someone like Chandler Stephenson would help at center.

The challenge, of course, is most of the players in this group will take up the majority (if not all of) Minnesota’s current cap space.  That makes it a bit more important to open up some more flexibility on that front before the calendar flips to July and free agency opens up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 4 Comments

The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

The Pittsburgh Penguins came into the 2023-24 season with playoff expectations after turning over nearly half of their roster last summer and acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. However, things didn’t go as planned as the power play and poor team defense were the Penguins’ undoing, leading them to miss the playoffs for a second straight season and just the third time since Sidney Crosby’s arrival in 2005. General manager Kyle Dubas made a lot of moves last summer after arriving from Toronto and has now had a full season to evaluate the team’s needs and how he can help get the group back into the playoff picture. The Penguins have one of the oldest rosters in the league and Dubas has expressed interest in getting younger which will make for a busy summer in Pittsburgh.

Extension Talks

The Penguins have plenty of holes to fill on their roster but all the talk over the next month will be about Crosby’s potential extension that he is eligible to sign on July 1st. It seems likely that the Penguins will be extending Crosby as both he and the team have expressed strong interest in him ending his career in Pittsburgh. Until that deal is done and sealed, the talk in Pittsburgh will be about the future of 87. Crosby had a season for the ages at 36 years old and could command any number he wanted on the open market. However, he has taken a hometown discount on each of his last two extensions and has had an $8.7MM average annual value since 2008-09. With his next deal, Crosby may finally elect to carry a cap hit north of $10MM for the first time in his career, although it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take less once again so the Penguins can add to their lineup. Much of the chatter has been about Crosby inking a short-term extension in July, one that could take him to the end of Kris Letang’s current contract.

The Penguins also have a few other players of note that will become extension-eligible on July 1st. Marcus Pettersson is the most defensively consistent player on the Penguins roster and has developed into a very effective shutdown defender for Pittsburgh. The 28-year-old posted career highs this past season tallying four goals and 26 assists while registering a plus-28 rating. He plays a quiet responsible game and has been asked to play alongside both Karlsson and Letang, leading to both players showing more effectiveness when paired with the big Swede. Karlsson struggled when he wasn’t paired with Pettersson and showed a noticeable decline when flanked by Ryan Graves. Pettersson is slated to make just $4.025MM in the final year of his five-year deal and could command upwards of $6MM on a long-term deal should he reach unrestricted free agency. The Penguins have reportedly already initiated contract talks with Pettersson, which makes sense given that they don’t have many effective defenders in their lineup. The team could explore a potential offseason trade, but it would leave a massive hole in their top four and provide another issue for Dubas to solve.

Drew O’Connor is another Penguins player who will be eligible for an extension this summer and is coming off a career year. The 25-year-old has been on the cusp of becoming an NHL regular for a number of years and finally lived up to the potential that many pundits thought he had when the Penguins signed him out of the NCAA back in March 2020. O’Connor had 16 goals and 17 assists in 79 games this season while finally using his speed and size to become a disruptive force on the Penguins forecheck. O’Connor spent the final few weeks of the regular season paired with Sidney Crosby and didn’t look out of place on the Penguins’ first line scoring six goals in the Penguins final 12 games. A contract extension with O’Connor would carry a great degree of risk, but plenty of upside as well depending on the version of O’Connor the Penguins could get long-term. He has proven himself to be a solid third-line winger on the Penguins, but if he were their answer on Crosby’s wing, it would open up an opportunity to extend him at a discount for the foreseeable future. At this stage it seems likely the Penguins will wait to see the kind of player that have in O’Connor this season before extending him long-term.

Add/Replace Depth Scoring

The Penguins don’t have many pending free agents as most of their top-end players are already signed for the 2024-25 season. However, they don’t have many impact players in the bottom of their lineup at the moment and desperately need to inject some offensively gifted players into their bottom-six forward group.

The Penguins don’t have much in the pipeline in terms of young NHL-ready forwards, but a few prospects could challenge for roles next season. Valtteri Puustinen appears ready for full-time NHL work and could see time on the Penguins’ third line, as well as recent trade acquisitions Ville Koivunen and Vasili Ponomarev, both of whom were acquired in the Jake Guentzel trade.

Last summer Dubas opted for a defensive first bottom six in hopes that the Penguins top six forwards could carry the weight offensively. While the likes of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Letang and Karlsson provided the offensive punch, the bottom six didn’t offer much help in the scoring department, particularly the fourth line that had several long stretches without a single goal. Lars Eller had a good season as the Penguins’ third-line center, but given his skill set and age he would probably be better suited as the Penguins’ fourth-line center, a move that would push current center Noel Acciari to the wing. 32-year-old Acciari struggled in his first year in Pittsburgh posting just four goals and three assists in 55 games and would benefit from an easier assignment on the wing. Acquiring a third-line center would have a positive ripple effect on the bottom two lines and could be enough to create some additional scoring throughout the Penguins lineup. Pittsburgh’s limited cap space will make an addition like that a challenge, but a few names to keep an eye on would be free agents Chandler Stephenson and Jack Roslovic.

If the Penguins are unable to add a third-line center, a speedy winger such as Anthony Duclair would be a good addition under head coach Mike Sullivan’s system.

Add Top-Six Winger

The Penguins will have roughly $13MM in cap space this summer when free agency opens and they have a need for another top-six winger, particularly if they trade Reilly Smith. The Penguins made a sound move in acquiring Smith last summer from the Vegas Golden Knights, however, the 33-year-old didn’t fit with Pittsburgh and struggled to 13 goals and 27 assists while playing primarily with Evgeni Malkin. If the Penguins are able to move Smith and his $5MM cap hit, it would open up a lot of options in free agency, or potentially the trade market.

A name that has been thrown around has been former Penguin Jake Guentzel who was Crosby’s running mate since breaking into the NHL in the 2016-17 season. Crosby and Guentzel have remarkable chemistry and in theory, the move is a no-brainer. However, the Penguins never fully engaged Guentzel on an extension when he was with the team and signing him would run against Dubas’ comments about the team getting younger.

Another potential reunion that would be available for the Penguins could be Jason Zucker who split last season between Arizona and Nashville. The 32-year-old had 14 goals and 18 assists in 69 games, a steep drop from his final season in Pittsburgh when he tallied 27 goals and 21 assists in 78 games. Zucker had good chemistry with Evgeni Malkin in his final season with the Penguins and his speed would be a good fit in Sullivan’s system.

Outside of former Penguins, one winger that Pittsburgh could target would be Jake DeBrusk of the Boston Bruins. DeBrusk is one of the younger free-agent wingers at just 27 years old and would be a great addition to Pittsburgh’s top-6 forward group. A solid two-way forward, DeBrusk had a down year this season posting just 19 goals and 21 assists in 80 games. The former first-round pick has the talent to be a 40-goal scorer in the NHL but has never topped 27 goals in a season, despite hitting the 25-goal mark on three separate occasions. DeBrusk could be a cheaper option for the Penguins to slide in alongside Sidney Crosby and could provide Crosby with a solid scoring winger during the twilight of his career.

Make The Goalie Splash

The Penguins coaching staff didn’t show much trust in starter Tristan Jarry down the stretch as backup netminder Alex Nedeljkovic started Pittsburgh’s final 13 games and nearly willed the club into the playoffs. Nedeljkovic steadied the Penguins goaltending situation at the end of the season but is a pending unrestricted free agent and likely priced himself out of Pittsburgh with his solid play down the stretch. That leaves Jarry and youngster Joel Blomqvist as the Penguins’ top two options heading into next season and could become a real issue as the Penguins look to get back to the playoffs.

Jarry was signed to a five-year deal last July in a move that was a necessity for the Penguins since there weren’t many better goaltending options available. The 29-year-old started the season well and had some solid stretches of play, but overall, his numbers were pedestrian as he finished the season 19-25-5 with a 2.91 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. Jarry remains a talented netminder and could probably generate some interest on the trade market but he has a history of playing poorly when the games matter the most and also has a long injury history as well.

Dubas has stated that the Penguins could start next season with Jarry and Blomqvist as their top two netminders but haven’t exactly shown a lot of confidence in Jarry given his lack of play in April of this past season. If the Penguins do opt to move on from Jarry it would not be easy as goaltender trades have been complicated in recent seasons as evidenced by the Flames’ inability to move netminder Jacob Markstrom. The Penguins could look to swap contracts with another club that has a struggling goaltender or attempt to go after a bigger fish such as 2023 Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark, but that would require additional resources that Dubas may not be willing to commit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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