John Gibson, Trevor Zegras Still Drawing Trade Interest
Ducks starter John Gibson and developing center Trevor Zegras are still the subject of trade inquiries, Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek told The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun during the ongoing scouting combine.
Both players have been the subjects of trade rumors in the past, especially Gibson, who seems to be on the block nearly every summer since his eight-year, $51.2MM extension began in 2019. Zegras also found his name in trade speculation last year after a lengthy contract battle that saw the restricted free agent miss most of training camp and preseason, finally putting pen to paper on a three-year, $17.25MM deal on Oct. 2.
Gibson, who will be 31 next month, has likely never had a lower trade value. In 2023-24, he posted career-worst numbers with a .888 SV% in 46 appearances while conceding 9.6 goals above expected, per MoneyPuck.
He’s long been given the benefit of the doubt due to the paper-thin defense in front of him for most of the Ducks’ recent rebuild, but he was significantly outplayed by the younger Lukáš Dostál this season. There’s a strong argument that Gibson wouldn’t even be Anaheim’s opening-night starter in October.
To be fair, Gibson’s numbers were tanked by a horrid end to the season that saw him fail to put up an SV% above .900 in any of his final eight showings. The beginning of the season was some of the best hockey we’d seen from him in quite some time, logging a .904 SV% in 24 games before New Year’s Day.
While Gibson was once considered one of the best young goaltenders in the league, he hasn’t had an above-average season since his extension kicked in, even considering Anaheim’s porous defense. His last season saving more goals than expected was 2018-19, the first season of the Ducks’ current playoff drought, when he logged a .917 SV% in 58 games for 13.3 GSAx.
With three seasons left at a $6.4MM cap hit and a 10-team no-trade clause in place, it’s fair to wonder if the Ducks would even net a first-round pick in return for his services. Especially in a summer when the trade market is dominated by names with much better recent history, such as Jacob Markström, Juuse Saros and Linus Ullmark.
They also wouldn’t be dealing from a position of strength with Zegras. He was plagued by injuries this season and mustered just six goals and 15 points in 31 contests.
There’s obviously less of a long-term fit for Zegras as their prospect pool continues to bolster itself, especially after they acquired 2022 fifth-overall pick Cutter Gauthier from the Flyers this season and signed him to his entry-level contract. But there’s still a solid chance for rebound potential in Anaheim next season, and given he’s a restricted free agent at the end of his current deal, there’s no lost trade value by holding onto him for another year. Even if they decide to pull the trigger on a Zegras deal, they’re much better off waiting for a better platform season preceding the deal.
Of course, receiving trade interest in players and actively shopping them are two completely different beasts. If Verbeek’s being transparent, only the former is at play here. With no rush to recoup value for either, as their signing rights are controlled for at least a few more seasons, this summer doesn’t seem to be the right opportunity for a move.
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Kraken Begin Extension Discussions With Matthew Beniers
The Kraken have begun preliminary contract discussions with top pending restricted free agent Matthew Beniers, per David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. Their first draft pick in franchise history just completed the final season of his entry-level contract and is in need of a new deal this summer.
Beniers, still 22, turned pro to end the 2021-22 campaign after returning for his sophomore season with the University of Michigan. After ending the season on a tear with nine points in his first 10 NHL games, he took over first-line center duties entering 2022-23. His 24 goals were second on the team, his 57 points ranked fourth, and his +14 rating and 17:09 average time on ice helped him win the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.
This year, Beniers endured a bit of a sophomore slump. Most of his underlying metrics remained the same, as he actually had more individual shot attempts than last year and maintained a CF% in the 51% range, but his production dropped to 15 goals and 37 points in 77 games. He was one of many affected by a major team-wide swing in shooting percentage, finishing at just a 9.1% rate this season compared to 11.6% in 2022-23.
It’s still unclear if he has the offensive upside to carry a team to a championship as their first-line center, but those concerns have persisted since his draft day. His floor as a high-end, defensively responsible pivot has already been realized, and he’s projected to again hold down first-line minutes next season with the team stating its preference to keep top goal-scorer Jared McCann on the wing.
Notably, Pagnotta says Kraken general manager Ron Francis isn’t yet sure if he wants to ink Beniers to a bridge deal, allowing them to sign him once again as an RFA in a few years, or go long-term immediately in hopes of getting a discount on his market value through his mid-20s. Evolving Hockey projects an eight-year extension for Beniers to cost $7.2MM annually, which could pay dividends if he can be a consistent 60-to-70-point player. If not, though, that’s a bit pricey for a player better served as a matchup second-line center. A three-year bridge deal, however, projects to cost just $5MM annually.
Either way, Pagnotta indicates negotiations are expected to kick into high gear after the scouting combine wraps up next week. There’s no huge sense of urgency to get a deal done before July 1, but it would give Francis a higher degree of cost certainty as he looks to improve his roster in free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Jacob Markstrom, Linus Ullmark Are Devils’ Top Goalie Targets
The Devils’ pursuit of a bonafide starting goaltender has been a dominant storyline for months and remains one of the few certainties of the summer. While there are more than a handful of qualified names on the trade block, the Flames’ Jacob Markström and the Bruins’ Linus Ullmark are the two likeliest names that New Jersey general manager Tom Fitzgerald would swing a deal for, sources told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic on Tuesday.
Fitzgerald also confirmed to reporters yesterday that he would make the Devils’ 2024 first-round pick, 10th overall, available in trade talks. In what’s viewed as a deep class of high-end talent, that pick could very well be enough to pry Markström or Ullmark away from their respective teams, although a low-to-medium-value asset may also be required.
The other big fish on the goalie trade market, 2022 Vezina Trophy nominee Juuse Saros, doesn’t appear likely. He’s only been connected to the Devils sparingly in recent weeks and wasn’t mentioned at all as an option for New Jersey in LeBrun’s reporting yesterday.
Markström and Ullmark are the elder statesmen of the group, but as such, could cost less to acquire than the sub-30 Saros. Ullmark finds himself in the conversation after throwing up a .924 SV% average over three seasons with the Bruins, but he’s only started more than half his team’s games in a season once. That was Boston’s record-setting 2022-23 campaign when he won the Vezina Trophy after recording a 40-6-1 record, .938 SV% and 1.89 GAA.
Markström’s numbers have been more inconsistent over the past few seasons, but he has a much longer track record of being a true starter. The 34-year-old Swede has started more than half his team’s games in each of the last seven years and is two years removed from a league-leading nine shutouts that helped him earn his only career Vezina nomination in 2022.
He’s coming off a verifiably above-average season, too, posting a .905 SV% and stopping 13.7 goals above expected (MoneyPuck) despite a .500 record. The other advantage is his contract – he’s got two seasons left at a $6MM cap hit compared to Ullmark, who’s only signed through next season.
Markström isn’t the higher-ceiling option, but he may be the safer one. He carries a full no-move clause, but multiple reports indicated he waived it for a move to New Jersey before this season’s trade deadline that ultimately fell through. LeBrun confirmed that notion yesterday.
New Jersey Devils Willing To Trade First-Round Pick
After hiring Sheldon Keefe to take over head coaching duties for the New Jersey Devils, the General Manager, Tom Fitzgerald is now moving on to the next item on his docket for the offseason. Earlier today, Josh Gold-Smith of TheScore reported that Fitzgerald is entertaining moving on from the team’s 10th overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft to acquire a top-tier goaltender.
Speaking with Mike G. Morreale of the NHL on Monday, Fitzgerald was quoted, “If we feel it helps us now and in the foreseeable future, then, yes, I’m listening. I haven’t gotten anything yet, but the more I talk to teams, I say ‘Listen, I’m open to moving No. 10, but it’s going to have to be something (significant)“. If the Devils do end up trading the 10th overall pick it should be a high enough return to acquire the likes of Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames, Juuse Saros from the Nashville Predators, or Linus Ullmark from the Boston Bruins, assuming the Devils can sign one of the latter two to an extension this summer.
Specifically in New Jersey, there is precedent from the organization in trading a top-10 pick for an established goaltender. After making it to the 2012 Stanley Cup Final, the Devils cratered in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season, earning the ninth overall pick of the 2013 NHL Draft. To soften the blow of the eventual departure of franchise legend Martin Brodeur, New Jersey traded the ninth overall pick (which would be used to select Bo Horvat) to the Vancouver Canucks to acquire Cory Schneider.
Although the Devils only made the playoffs once during Schneider’s seven-year run in the Garden State, the team acquired a 26-year goaltender coming off a .927 save percentage over 30 games in the prior year for a top-10 selection. Factoring in trades for goaltenders over the last several years, the 10th overall pick should satisfy the desired return for all three goaltenders listed.
Joe Pavelski Expected To Retire
Speaking to members of the Dallas Stars in their end-of-season media availability, radio host of the Stars, Owen Newkirk, reports that Joe Pavelski is likely done with his career in the National Hockey League. Although Pavelski was adamant that it was not an official announcement of retiring, he mentioned that he had expected this to be his last season.
If Pavelski has ultimately played his last game, it will mark the end of a career that spanned almost two decades. Drafted in the seventh round of the ever-famous 2003 NHL Draft, Pavelski has not only beat the odds of making it to the NHL but will now be regarded as one of the most consistent American-born players in league history.
One of the major reasons Pavelski was able to procure such lasting power in the NHL is his hand-eye coordination. With most current All-Stars combining elite skill and speed, Pavelski never brought the same kind of mobility as the rest of his peers and instead became a menace in front of the opposing team’s nets.
For the first 13 years of his career, Pavelski became a staple of the San Jose Sharks organization, missing the playoffs in only one season. Pavelski played in 963 games for the Sharks, scoring 355 goals and 761 points, with 121 of those goals coming on an elite powerplay. Finishing the last four years of his tenure in San Jose as the team’s captain, Pavelski also helped the team to four division titles, four Conference Finals appearances, one President’s Trophy, and one appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals.
With the Sharks entering a rebuilding phase towards the end of Pavelski’s career with the organization, he left for greener pastures in the 2019-20 offseason. Over the summer, Pavelski signed a three-year, $21MM contract with the Stars, marking an end to his tenure in San Jose.
If anything, Pavelski almost became a more effective player in Dallas, scoring on a nearly point-per-game pace from his age 35 to age 39 season. Pavelski added another 121 goals and 307 points to his career totals while playing 369 regular season games in the Lone Star State.
During his first year with the Stars organization, Pavelski would get another crack at the Stanley Cup, this time losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Despite scoring 74 goals and 143 points in 201 combined postseason games with the Sharks and the Stars, Pavelski was unable to capture the elusive trophy throughout his career.
If this is indeed the end for Pavelski, he will have finished his 18-year career with 1,332 games played while scoring 476 goals and 1,068 points. Compared to other American-born players throughout league history, Pavelski would finish his career seventh in games played, sixth in goals, 12th in assists, and sixth in points.
Jake Guentzel Likely To Test Free Agency
Hurricanes winger Jake Guentzel, nearly universally viewed as the second-best pending unrestricted free agent available, will likely still be on the market when July 1 hits, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports.
The possibility of returning to Carolina after the market opens hasn’t been ruled out, but he’s expected to look at other offers and potential fits around the league. His camp has had extensive extension talks with the Hurricanes since their season ended in the second round last month, but their richest offer evidently isn’t enough to keep him from at least window-shopping elsewhere.
Despite missing around a month due to injury, the 29-year-old is arguably coming off the best season of his career. After yet again putting up over a point per game on Sidney Crosby‘s wing with the Penguins, Guentzel exploded after the move to Carolina, recording eight goals and 25 points in his final 17 regular-season games. He remained excellent in postseason play, tying for third on the team in scoring with nine points (four goals, five assists) in 11 games while logging the third-most ice time among forwards behind Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis.
Guentzel also positively influenced the Hurricanes’ already strong possession game. With him on the ice at even strength, the Hurricanes controlled 60.2% of shot attempts, 1.5% higher than their shot attempt share without him. The 2013 third-round pick also had a positive relative possession impact in all eight of his seasons in Pittsburgh.
He also hit the 30-goal mark for the third straight season and the fourth time in his career overall. While his market value won’t eclipse Panthers pending UFA winger Sam Reinhart, who’s coming off a career-best 57 goals, he’s undoubtedly a safer signing with a long track record of point-per-game play under his belt. His short stint thus far in Carolina certainly boosts his value, proving he can still produce elite numbers away from one of the game’s all-time greats.
Former Hurricanes GM Don Waddell managed to acquire Guentzel from the Penguins without parting with a first-round pick, but he did surrender solid complementary winger Michael Bunting and a trio of prospects with NHL ceilings. His value on the open market could very well eclipse the $9.5MM mark on a max-term deal, though.
That’s money the Hurricanes’ interim management group of AGMs Eric Tulsky, Darren Yorke, and owner Tom Dundon may not be willing to commit with Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei and Teuvo Teräväinen also headed for free agency this summer, among many others. However, as Pagnotta reports, there were no mid-season extension discussions with Teräväinen, and his camp is expected to make a call next week on pursuing a last-minute agreement in Carolina or joining Guentzel in heading to market.
Guentzel is completing a five-year, $30MM extension he signed with Pittsburgh in 2018. The Nebraska native and Nebraska-Omaha collegiate product led all players in playoff scoring with 13 goals in 25 games as a rookie in 2017, helping the Pens win their second of back-to-back championships.
Jarmo Kekalainen Linked To Hurricanes’ GM Vacancy
The Hurricanes are considering hiring former Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen to fill their vacancy, reports Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.
Speaking on the “32 Thoughts” podcast on Monday, Friedman said Kekäläinen is a “contender” for the position. Their GM vacancy was created last month after Don Waddell resigned from his post, joining Columbus to replace Kekäläinen within days.
Kekäläinen, 57, is the first external candidate firmly connected to the Carolina opening. He was fired from his post in Columbus in February after 11 years with the organization.
It’s unclear if the Hurricanes have obtained permission to interview him from the Blue Jackets yet, but it would make sense as a virtual GM-for-GM trade. Carolina’s assistant GMs under Waddell, Eric Tulsky and Darren Yorke, are also strong contenders to replace Waddell, with the former serving as interim GM in his absence.
Notably, Friedman said the candidate pool for Waddell’s replacement isn’t terribly large due to how the organization wants to structure its front office. The team has made it clear to potential candidates that, unlike with other teams, their GM won’t be their sole primary decision-maker. Instead, they’ll work in a more collaborative environment with AGMs and owner Tom Dundon, with their main duties being facilitating communication with other teams. Evidently, that hasn’t scared off Kekäläinen, but Friedman reports it has swayed a few candidates away from having an interest in the role.
It’s also the first opening Kekäläinen has been connected to in earnest since his firing. While it’s been a tough go in Columbus lately, he did oversee the longest sustained period of success in franchise history, helping construct a Jackets roster that made the playoffs four years in a row from 2017 to 2020.
With Waddell heading over to Columbus, the Canes are the only team with an active GM vacancy. The Oilers are likely to end up with one after the Stanley Cup Final ends with Ken Holland in the final year of his contract and not expected to return.
2024 Key Offseason Dates
With free agency now set to open within a month, it’s time to look at the flowchart for another extremely compact offseason. Below are some notable dates and deadlines to watch for as all but the Oilers and Panthers begin their offseason preparations in earnest.
June 3 – June 8
NHL Scouting Combine
June 8
Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final.
June 24
The last possible day of the Stanley Cup Final.
48 hours after Stanley Cup Final ends
The first buyout window (and the only buyout window for teams without any arbitration filings) opens. Teams can spread out two-thirds of their remaining base salary over twice the remaining length of their deal for players 26 and older and one-third for players 25 and younger. The players must first be placed on unconditional waivers before being bought out unless they have a no-move clause.
This also marks the deadline for the first club-elected salary arbitration window. If a team elects for arbitration with an eligible pending restricted free agent in this window, it serves as a qualifying offer.
June 27
2024 NHL Awards
June 28
Round 1 of the 2024 NHL Draft
June 29
Rounds 2-7 of the 2024 NHL Draft
June 30, 4 p.m. CT
Deadline for teams to tender qualifying offers to their pending RFAs. Those who don’t receive QOs will become unrestricted free agents the following day.
This is also the end of the first buyout window afforded to teams. Clubs dealing with arbitration filings will have a second buyout window lasting 48 hours beginning three days after the later of the settlement of the team’s final arbitration case or the receipt of the team’s last arbitration award. In this window, a buyout can only be performed on a player who was on the team’s reserve list at 2 p.m. CT on March 8 (trade deadline day) and has a cap hit of at least $4MM in the 2024 offseason.
July 1, 11 a.m. CT
The new league year begins, and players on expiring contracts officially become restricted/unrestricted free agents.
July 5, 4 p.m. CT
Deadline for eligible RFAs to file for salary arbitration.
July 5, 4:01 p.m. CT – July 6, 4 p.m. CT
The second window for clubs to file for salary arbitration with eligible RFAs.
July 15, 4 p.m. CT
Qualifying offers expire unless extended in writing by the team. Even if unsigned, teams retain qualified players’ signing rights.
July 20 – August 4
Salary arbitration hearings are held.
August 15, 4 p.m. CT
Exclusive signing rights for unsigned graduated college-drafted players expire.
Maple Leafs Open Contract Talks With Tyler Bertuzzi
Winger Tyler Bertuzzi is one of many pending unrestricted free agents for the Maple Leafs and is also one of their more prominent ones. It had been suggested previously that there was mutual interest in a contract extension and it appears those talks are now underway, according to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link). He added that it’s way too early in the process to determine if the two sides might be able to work out a new deal.
Last summer was an interesting one for the 29-year-old. Even though he was coming off a down year, Bertuzzi was one of the better unrestricted free agents in last year’s class, landing in the top ten in our annual rankings. That appeared to have him set to receive a multi-year agreement (if not a long-term one) and a raise on the $4.75MM AAV he had been playing on.
However, the market he was hoping for never materialized. Rather than accept a multi-year deal at a lower rate, he instead pivoted on the second day of free agency, inking a one-year, $5.5MM pact with Toronto. It looked like his hope was that a key role on a Maple Leafs team that had a strong offensive core could help better position himself to land a long-term agreement on the open market this time around.
Things didn’t go quite as planned, however. Bertuzzi got off to a slow start, notching just nine points in his first 27 games despite holding down a spot in the top six for most of that time. He was able to rebound in the second half, however, finishing up with 21 goals and 20 assists in 80 games before tying for the team lead in playoff points with four.
Bertuzzi is only two years removed from a 30-goal season when he had 30 tallies and 32 assists in 68 games during the 2021-22 season. He also has two other 21-goal campaigns under his belt so there is a reasonable track record of offensive success.
Having said that, the fact he wasn’t able to get back to that 30-goal mark (instead staying closer to his career averages) won’t help his chances of landing a raise and a long-term pact. If Bertuzzi wants some job security in the form of a multi-year agreement, he’s likely going to have to take at least a small discount on the salary side.
Toronto has a little more than $18MM in cap room this summer, per CapFriendly. However, they have to sign a few forwards, several defensemen, and a goalie with that money so while there is some flexibility to make a big signing if they want, they also need to spread that money around. They have next month to figure out if a new deal for Bertuzzi fits in with how they want to allocate their remaining cap room.
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Senators Undecided On Qualifying Erik Brannstrom
Back in 2019, the Senators thought they were adding a core piece of the future when they picked up defenseman Erik Brannstrom from Vegas as part of the Mark Stone trade. While he has worked his way into a regular role, he hasn’t been anywhere near as impactful as they were hoping for.
With the team looking to shake things up in Steve Staios’ first summer as GM, it appears as if Brannstrom is one of the players whose future with the team is in some question. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Sens aren’t sure if they will tender him his required qualifying offer this summer.
It’s a similar situation to the one they found themselves in a year ago, albeit with a higher price tag this time around. At that time, the qualifying offer was tendered with an agreement pretty much done in principle, finalized on July 1st with a contract that more than doubled his salary to $2MM for 2023-24. That figure is now the qualifying offer while he will have arbitration rights as well.
Brannstrom played in a career-best 76 games this season, picking up three goals and 17 assists. He was primarily limited to playing on the third pairing while interim head coach Jacques Martin elected to deploy him as a winger on the fourth line briefly as well. Those numbers alone might not look great for arbitration purposes but with 69 points in 266 career NHL contests, the longer track record would bolster his case in a hearing.
At the moment, Ottawa already has over $27MM committed to six defensemen for next season, per CapFriendly, with Jake Sanderson’s new contract kicking in this summer. Should they be allocating at least another $2MM (and likely more to avoid a hearing) to that position or would they be better off using that money elsewhere? Having said that, if they elect to move a blueliner – Jakob Chychrun has been in trade speculation dating back to the trade deadline – then it might be more justifiable to try to give Brannstrom one more chance.
As things stand, they have a little over $12MM in room for next season with a handful of roster spots to fill. Pending RFA center Shane Pinto figures to take a good chunk of that so if Staios wants to try to add an impact piece to his roster, it would be difficult to do so and keep Brannstrom on the roster without making some sort of other change first. Accordingly, this is a decision that could come down to the wire on the June 30th qualifying offer deadline.
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