Afternoon Notes: Flyers, Panarin, Butcher
Even though the Philadelphia Flyers picked second overall in the 2017 draft, they weren’t that bad of a team. The Flyers actually finished the season with a 33-39-10 record, good enough for 88 points. Eleven teams finished worse in the standings than the Flyers. So, while the team wasn’t at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the team did make some changes. They got a little younger, trading away 25-goal scorer Brayden Schenn for struggling Jori Lehtera, a 2017 first-round pick and a conditional first-round pick in 2018, they let defenseman Michael Del Zotto walk and they swapped goaltenders, replacing veteran Steve Mason with Brian Elliott. They also drafted second-overall pick Nolan Patrick in the draft this year.
However, Philly.com’s Sam Donnellon writes that it will be very difficult to measure in which direction the team will go this year. Even with many of their veterans returning, there are too many unknowns, including the defense could have two or more rookie defensemen, both Patrick and top prospect Oskar Lindblom could make the team out of training camp and their goaltending still looks to be less than stellar. Some of those points could be positives as Lindblom and Patrick could have big first seasons or Elliott could have a comeback season.
The scribe writes that a lot of the teams success or lack thereof will fall on third-year coach Dave Hakstol, who must figure out how to fit all the pieces together while developing the team’s emerging youth.
- In an interview with Artemi Panarin in a Russian newspaper, SB Nation’s Dave Melton got a translated copy, in which he states he was surprised to be traded from Chicago, but is eager to move on to Columbus and hopes for an even bigger role with the Blue Jackets. The fact that multiple players have said they would like to play alongside him including Alexander Wennberg, is what Panarin says is exciting about the move. “That’s why I see this trade as a springboard and not a pitfall.”
- While likely meaningless, Denver Post’s Mike Chambers tweeted a picture of unrestricted free agent defenseman and Hobey Baker Award winner Will Butcher at Denver International Airport on Friday, carrying a bag with the Buffalo Sabres logo on it. Chambers suggests that his first visit was to Buffalo. The Sabres, Vegas Golden Knights, Columbus Blue Jackets and the New Jersey Devils have been reported to have reached out to the free agent out of the University of Denver.
Latest On Alexander Wennberg, Josh Anderson
The Edmonton Oilers got their big name restricted free agent locked up when they signed Leon Draisaitl to an eight-year, $68MM contract yesterday and perhaps it will start a run on RFA signings. According to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, the Columbus Blue Jackets have had contact with Alexander Wennberg and Josh Anderson this week to start up negotiations again. Portzline’s quick to point out that this shouldn’t be misconstrued as progress, but the two sides hadn’t spoken in weeks.
Wennberg stands as probably the most important RFA still on the market outside of David Pastrnak in Boston, as he’s coming off a 59-point season in which he proved that he can be a #1 center. His 46 assists tied for 15th in the league, and he developed into one of the most dangerous powerplay weapons in the league. His playmaking ability is unmatched on the Blue Jackets, and heading into his age-23 season should get a hefty raise.
Anderson on the other hand is a sort of lineup tweener, who likely shouldn’t be played in your top-6 but still scored 17 goals last year. His production in limited minutes was a huge part of the Blue Jackets’ success but they have to be wary of paying for a possible career-high. Those 17 tallies came on an impressive 14.3% shooting percentage and could easily regress back to 10-15 this year. While he does offer physicality and versatility, Anderson doesn’t have high-end creativity or skill. While that won’t stop him from being an integral part this season, the Blue Jackets have some young players to pay in the next few years and can’t afford to tie up too much capital in a bottom six winger.
Minor Transactions: 8/16/17
Between a long-term extension for Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton, a return to Minnesota for Matt Cullen, and a couple of contracts for first day-eligible college free agents Dominic Toninato and Connor Clifton, it’s been a relatively busy August day for NHL transactions. Yet, here is some more news from across the hockey world:
- The AHL’s Providence Bruins already made a splash today, signing the aforementioned Clifton, a standout right-handed defenseman from nearby Quinnipiac University, but another notable name has also joined the fold in Providence. The Providence Journal’s Mark Divver, who also broke the Clifton news, revealed that NHL veteran Josh Hennessy has agreed to return to Providence on a PTO to begin the season. Hennessy has been playing for the Vaxjo Lakers in Sweden for much of the past three years and bounced around the KHL prior to that, but the 32-year-old was last in North America with the Boston Bruins and their affiliate in 2011-12. A 2003 second-round pick of the San Jose Sharks who has skated in 23 NHL games with the Bruins and Ottawa Senators, Hennessy clearly did not reach the expectations of his draft slot, but does have a history of high-scoring AHL campaigns. The P-Bruins had success with the PTO route last season, winding up with reliable veterans Peter Mueller and Matt Bartkowski, and hope that the local Massachusetts native can play well enough to crack a lineup that is chock full of talented Bruins prospects.
- Divver also made note of another move affecting Providence hockey, but the NCAA’s Providence College Friars rather than the AHL’s Bruins. The OHL’s Guelph Storm announced today that they have signed forward Cam Hillis, the team’s second-round pick in the 2016 OHL Draft. However, to join the Storm, Hillis had to break his commitment to play college hockey at PC. As Divver points out, Hillis is now the third Friars recruit this summer to instead choose the major junior route, joining Merrick Rippon (Mississagua Steelheads) and Sam Rhodes (Barrie Colts).
- Another player spurning the college game, but in Canada instead of the U.S., is former Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds forward Bobby MacIntyre. The undrafted overager registered 80 points in 63 games in his final OHL season and was one of the top targets of many Canadian universities. However, he will bypass the university path and go straight to the pros after an impressive campaign. Victor Findlay of the Canadian University Sports Network reports that MacIntyre has agreed to terms with the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters, the minor league affiliate of the Columbus Blue Jackets, on his first pro contract. MacIntyre could be an AHL rookie to watch for next season.
- Another AHL deal of note was that of Jake Marchment joining the San Antonio Rampage. The Colorado Avalanche affiliate announced the signing today, as well as an extension for Shawn St. Amant. Marchment comes over from the San Jose Sharks organization, where he was a sixth-round pick in 2014. The big two-way center saw only four games of AHL action last year with the San Jose Barracuda, instead mostly skating in the ECHL. He’ll look for a greater opportunity in San Antonio in 2017-18. Many will remember Marchment as a member of the talented 2014-15 and 2015-16 Erie Otters teams, who made it to the OHL Championship and Conference Finals respectively. Marchment was acquired from the Belleville Bulls in 2015 in part to help the team on their playoff run and also to make up for the impending loss of superstar Connor McDavid.
Snapshots: Desjardins, Iginla, Dahlstrom, Blue Jackets
Willie Desjardins won’t be in the NHL this year, but he’ll still be one of the more talked-about coached in hockey. He’ll be leading Team Canada on their journey to the Olympics, this time without the benefit of NHL-level players. Speaking with Rick Dhaliwal today of News 1130 in Vancouver, Desjardins spoke about several players including Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla.
Confirming that the pair are still looking for NHL contracts, Desjardins also said that it would be tough for them to jump into the Olympic speed if they weren’t playing anywhere come February. That might be the case for one or both of them though, as there doesn’t seem to be much interest around the league for the aging stars. Iginla had some redeeming qualities at the trade deadline and picked up his play for the Los Angeles Kings down the stretch, but both are now 40-years old and would need a team to really go out on a limb to give them an NHL deal.
- Scott Powers of The Athletic goes in depth on Chicago Blackhawks prospect John Dahlstrom, who you can no longer call Mr. Irrelevant in the NHL. The very last pick of the 2015 draft, Dahlstrom will return to Sweden instead of playing in the USHL this season, and try to earn an entry-level contract next year. The 20-year old forward recorded 30 goals and 59 points for the Medicine Hat Tigers of the WHL this year, and has legitimate prospect status despite his draft pedigree.
- Aaron Portzline made his much-anticipated debut for The Athletic’s Cleveland chapter, bringing his usual insight into the Columbus Blue Jackets and explaining all the upcoming decisions for the team over the next month. He includes an interesting quote from GM Jarmo Kekalainen, saying that he’s willing to make a trade or do whatever is needed regardless of whether the season has started or not. This was in response to some questions about Matt Duchene, a deal that Portzline still sees as a perfect fit between the two clubs.
Wennberg Hopes To Play On Line With Panarin
- While forward Columbus Blue Jackets’ Alexander Wennberg remains a restricted free agent, Fanrag’s Adam Gretz writes that Wennberg is intrigued at the possibility of being paired with newly acquired Artemi Panarin. Having been among the top productive players with the Blackhawks for the past two years, Wennberg claims that playing on the same line with Panarin would be thrilling and could take his game to a new level. “That would be incredible to play with (Panarin),” Wennberg said to NHL.com. “He’s a heck of a player. To see the plays he made with Kane, he’s one of the best players in the league. So, if I get a chance to play with him, that would be incredible.”
Free Agent Profile: Dennis Wideman
Recently, PHR has been shining some light on remaining free agents in a very quiet market, with players like P.A. Parenteau, Daniel Winnik, Brian Gionta, Jarome Iginla, and Drew Stafford getting some extra attention. The one thing that those players have in common is that there is not a defenseman among them. The last defenseman profiled was Johnny Oduya, who signed with the Ottawa Senators the next day and remains the last major UFA to have signed an NHL deal. Meanwhile, veteran Andrei Markov left for Russia, while big blue liner Cody Franson remains in limbo (and should consider investing in some real estate there).
Why have no other defenseman garnered attention, both from NHL teams nor the PHR team? There are simply few quality defenders left on the market. Outside of Franson, one lone defenseman remains unsigned from PHR’s list of the Top 50 2017 Free Agents: Dennis Wideman. Wideman was the last man to make the list, ranking 50th overall and 14th among defenseman. At 34 years old and coming off back-to-back seasons that could both be considered the worst of his career, Wideman wasn’t exactly a hot commodity. However, it was still projected that Wideman would find work based on a long track record of being able to play major minutes and put up points, even if just on a short-term inexpensive deal.
Luckily for Wideman, that is still a distinct possibility even in mid-August. The free agent market, for not only defenseman but for all players, is all but dead, yet opportunities remain. Signings have been few and far in between, but Wideman faces only Franson for any open blue line spots and brings a very different skill set. Wideman is an 11-year veteran with 387 points in 815 NHL games and was once considered one of the top puck-movers in the game. Wideman even drew Norris Trophy votes in 2008-09 with the Boston Bruins and turned his impressive resume into a five-year, $26.25MM contract with the Calgary Flames in 2012. Wideman is far from that player today, but still carries the pedigree of a possession defenseman capable of playing big minutes when needed and helping out on the power play.
Even if Franson signs a new contract first, Wideman’s chances of landing a deal of his own are still fair. In each of the past two years, two legitimate NHL defenseman have signed contracts late in free agency. Last year, it was Dennis Seidenberg going to the New York Islanders and Kyle Quincey signing with the New Jersey Devils. Seidenberg looked rejuvenated in Brooklyn and earned himself an extension, while Quincey proved to be a valuable veteran and trade chip for the Devils and has already signed with the Minnesota Wild this summer. In 2015, it was Franson himself, ending up with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year deal, and David Schlemko, yet another one-year value deal for the Devils.
Potential Suitors
If the pattern isn’t clear yet, a one-year “show me” deal for Wideman with the New Jersey Devils remains a very real possibility. For the third season in a row, the Devils could greatly benefit from adding a talented veteran on the cheap. Although the team has a pair of consummate pros in captain Andy Greene and veteran Ben Lovejoy, as well as some exciting young players like Damon Severson, Mirco Mueller, and John Moore, the team is lacking in depth. Bringing in Wideman, who has become accustomed to a part-time role in Calgary over the past few years, to be a spot starter, capable injury replacement, and mentor to the young offensive blue liners would be a savvy signing by GM Ray Shero.
Another team that is going to be rumored to be in on a top-four defenseman until they actually go out and get one is the Colorado Avalanche. With just three defenseman currently signed to one-way deals and a depth chart lacking in legitimate NHLers, the rebuilding Avs are desperate for help on the blue line. It would not come as surprise if Colorado ended up signing both Wideman and Franson if their “D” corps looks as bad in camp as it does on paper.
Other interested parties that may be looking for affordable veteran depth – and specifically keyed in on a right-handed shot – include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, or a return to the Washington Capitals.
Expected Contract
The original speculation for Wideman was that he would sign a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. At this point in the off-season and given Wideman’s age and the substantial wear on his tires, a one-year pact is all but certain. The $1.5MM? That isn’t out of the question. Wideman’s past two seasons with the Flames were none toof inspiring and Calgary fans were happy to see him go. However, that doesn’t mean that Wideman can’t return to form with a change of scenery and is just two years removed from a career-high 56 points. He may still be able to command a seven figure salary. The longer he goes unsigned though, the more and more likely he ends up under $1MM. Wideman seems unlikely to take the absolute minimum, $650K, and will hold out hope that he can get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $1.25MM deals that Quincey signed last year and this year. In the end, he may have to settle for only a bit more if he wants to extend his NHL playing career. One way or another, Wideman will be making much less and will have a very different role with his next contract versus his last.
Snapshots: Wennberg, Pastrnak, Army, Butler
Alexander Wennberg isn’t worried. Despite being one of the final 19 restricted free agents left to sign this summer, the Columbus centerman knows the two sides will get a deal done before long. That’s what he told Tom Gulitti of NHL.com, who profiled Wennberg’s summer goals to get bigger and stronger for next season. Wennberg is a key part of the Columbus offense, recording 59 points last season and growing into the top line center spot that was vacated when the Blue Jackets traded away Ryan Johansen.
Wennberg was part of the reason that trade was possible, as Columbus knew they had something special ready to break out. The 22-year old now has 99 points over his past two seasons and could see even more offensive opportunity with Artemi Panarin now in the fold, and Cam Atkinson established as a top goal scorer. An absolutely deadly playmaker on the powerplay, the next step is getting Wennberg to shoot more at even strength and create his own opportunities. If he does, a long-term deal could look especially valuable in a year or two.
- Similarly, David Pastrnak doesn’t seem fazed by the fact that he remains unsigned now into August. He told Tim Campbell of NHL.com that contract negotiations are entirely in agent J.P. Barry’s hands, and that he’s just focused on taking another step forward next season. It’s hard to believe more improvement is coming for Pastrnak, who scored 34 goals and 70 points as a 20-year old last season. Climbing any higher would put him among the absolute best in the league, if he’s not there already. For Boston fans worried about a potential deal, he had this to say: “The guys are great. The city is great. The fans are great. I like the arena. The city is full of good restaurants and young people.” Sure doesn’t sound like a player that wants to leave anytime soon.
- The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins have hired Tim Army as an assistant coach for next season, after he was fired by the Colorado Avalanche earlier this offseason. The long-time NHL coach will work alongside head coach Clark Donatelli in a reversal of roles for the pair, after working together at Providence College in the past.
- Bobby Butler is coming back to North America after a few years abroad, as he signed a one-year AHL contract with the Milwuakee Admirals. Butler was signed by the Ottawa Senators out of the University of New Hampshire back in 2010, and played 130 NHL games before finding himself stuck in the minors for 2014-15. Success was hard to come by in the SHL and KHL, so he’s back to try and show off his AHL All-Star talent once again. This contract will maintain his eligibility for the USA Olympic team, but at this point in his career he’d be a long-shot over some of the young college players.
Third-Year Breakout Candidates
In the NFL, there is a prevailing theory that it takes wide receivers a few years to really establish themselves as forces in the league. Their third year is pointed at as a potential “breakout” period, when they can take a substantial step forward after learning how to better control their bodies and become accustomed to the league. While every year there are impact rookies in the NHL, there are still those that follow this same path. Despite getting plenty of playing time, they just don’t seem to put it together until that third season.
In 2016-17 we had plenty of examples of a player taking a huge step forward in his third NHL season. Many follow a normal development path like Leon Draisaitl, jumping from nine points in limited action, to 51 in his sophomore year and 77 in his third and best season so far. David Pastrnak—who remains unsigned by the Boston Bruins—on the other hand may be the best example of a third-year breakout. He registered 27 and 26 points in his first two seasons before finding another level last year to score 70 points. His jump of 54 points was one of the biggest in the league, and it came in just 75 games.
Jonathan Drouin came back from his troubled 2014-15 season to post a career-high 53 points last year in his third go-round, finally coming through on his drool-worthy offensive potential with some real production. Viktor Arvidsson was finally given a full-time opportunity in his third season and jumped from 22 career points to 61 in a single season (though it’s hard to even call his first year a real season since he only got into six games).
This year there are plenty of candidates for a breakout. Players who though performing admirably haven’t quite reached their potential during the first two seasons of their NHL careers, and could take a considerable step forward this season.
Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues
Normally a defenseman who has started his career with 68 points in 160 games would be seen as a glowing success and not a breakout candidate, but that’s just how high the ceiling is for Parayko. With Kevin Shattenkirk moved on to greener pastures, Parayko should have even more opportunity to prove himself as one of the league’s young superstars. There is ample room to improve on his career-high of 35 points, and it’s not out of the question that he will receive Norris trophy votes as soon as this season.
Remember Parayko was drafted back in 2012, and ended up going to the University of Alaska for three seasons before entering professional hockey. He’s now 24, armed with a huge contract extension and ready to make it clear that he should be considered among the top tier of defensemen.
Noah Hanifin – Carolina Hurricanes
Hanifin has done everything the Hurricanes have asked of him, but still hasn’t come close to the rock solid top-pairing player that he flashed as a freshman in Boston College. Hanifin took over games in the college ranks, but has settled into a good-but-not-great role in Carolina. Sitting behind Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk on the depth chart, Hanifin could experience a similar breakout to Jacob Trouba if an injury forces him into a bigger role.
It’s interesting that fans have speculated on Hanifin being the odd man out in Carolina in trade scenarios for an upgrade at forward, even though his draft pedigree and early results should make him almost untouchable. He won’t turn 21 until January of next year and could easily find himself in the conversation as the Hurricanes’ best defenseman should he reach his immense ceiling.
Robby Fabbri – St. Louis Blues
Fabbri was well on his way to having a breakout season in his second year, playing at a near-50 point pace through 51 games. His season would be cut short in February when he suffered a knee injury, making 2017-18 one to watch for the young forward. In what should be an exceptional St. Louis offense, Fabbri is still sort of a wild card. Right now it looks like he may get to play with newcomer Brayden Schenn on the team’s second line, and in that spot he’ll hardly ever face the opponent’s best defensive group (they’ll be reserved for Vladimir Tarasenko and company).
Fabbri could easily find himself with a 60-point season this year, as long as the knee is back to 100% by the start of the year. Playing with offensive players like Schenn and Alex Steen will only help him work his magic in the attacking zone.
Nick Ritchie – Anaheim Ducks
Power forwards often take a little more time to develop, and the Ducks are still waiting on Ritchie to take the next step. In 77 games last year he put up 28 points, which while respectable isn’t the top-end goal scoring numbers they’d hoped for when they drafted him 10th overall. That production though came in limited minutes, and if he’s given the opportunity the numbers are sure to follow.
Ritchie played just under 13 minutes a night last season, but saw that number drop even further after Anaheim acquired Patrick Eaves at the deadline. Eaves is back, but he’s also now 33-years old and could take a big step back next season. If powerplay time becomes available, Ritchie could have a breakout season on his hands.
Oliver Bjorkstrand – Columbus Blue Jackets
Like Arvidsson, you can barely call Bjorkstrand’s first two years with Columbus seasons. He’s played in 38 games over the past two years, spending most of the time in the AHL instead. Still, he has provided tantalizing results in the minor leagues and has 21 points in his limited NHL sample. Even if that rate continued it would be a 45 point season for the third-round pick, good enough to constitute a breakout in his third season. But with Bjorkstrand there is even more upside.
In the WHL, the Danish forward dominated the competition scoring 144 goals in 193 games and has elite hockey sense with the puck. His nose for the net and ability to slide into undefended areas would allow him to be a consistent NHL scoring threat if given the chance. There are a ton of weapons in the Blue Jackets forward group, but if he were to find some early camp chemistry with one of the stars Bjorkstrand could easily slide into a top-six option without much resistance.
(*There are many other players who could experience a third-year breakout, and some will be discussed in future articles. This is not meant to be a ranking of any kind.)
Morning Notes: Ovechkin, Hlinka, Werenski
Alex Ovechkin still won’t give up his dream of playing in the 2018 Olympics, even in the face of a possible suspension. He told Sport-Express in Russia that there is “always a chance” and that he hopes the NHL will change their stance on letting him play.
When it came out yesterday that the NHL would not allow minor league players on two-way deals to attend, much speculation came along that any Olympic squad who broke this rule would be disqualified from competition. The IIHF has been clear that they will honor the NHL’s wishes for the 2018 Games, likely with hopes that the relationship can be mended for 2022.
- The Ivan Hlinka U18 tournament started yesterday, and with it FanRag’s resident prospect guru Hannah Stuart took a look at some of the most interesting names in the tournament. Joe Veleno tops the list, a name which we’ve discussed before in relation to the top pick in next year’s draft. Veleno will be at the top of any scout’s list when watching the QMJHL this year, as the 17-year old has almost no limit on his upside going forward.
- Columbus Blue Jackets’ super rookie Zach Werenski sat down with Rob Mixer of The Athletic for a one-on-one interview, discussing his decision to turn pro and the struggles he had on opening night. He ends the discussion with a mention of how easy playing with Seth Jones was for him, something that Columbus fans can look forward to for a long time. Jones is locked up long-term at a reasonable cap hit, and Werenski should earn an extension next summer to see his prime years covered in Columbus. With those two locked in as a top pair for the next half-decade, it’s hard to project anything but success for the Blue Jackets.
Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.