PHR Panel: Franchise Building Blocks
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on who we would want to build a franchise around.
Q: If you had to build a team around one player drafted in the past three years, who would it be?
Brian La Rose:
It’s the age-old debate of what’s more valuable—the number one center or the number one defenseman. Two players from the 2017 draft immediately jump to mind in Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson.
In Makar, Colorado has a dynamic offensive threat from the back end and considering he has just one full season under his belt, it’s certainly reasonable to expect that he will improve considerably from where he is now.
Meanwhile, Pettersson has immediately stepped into a key role in Vancouver and this season, he proved that his rookie campaign was no fluke. He has shown that he can handle the rigors of playing down the middle without too much difficulty.
Makar is going to be an elite offensive weapon in the NHL. He basically already is. But I’m not sure his defensive game gets quite to that level. Meanwhile, Pettersson has made some strides defensively and has the potential to be that all situations type of player.
If I’m a GM building a team around one of the two, I’d take Pettersson as a result. There are no limitations with him—he should soon be a point-per-game player or better and number one centers are extremely hard to acquire outside of the draft. Makar is an electric player already with room to get even better but will his defensive play improve to where he can be that all situations player? I’m not as certain about that so I’ll take the safer play with Pettersson.
Holger Stolzenberg:
There are a number of impressive prospects who have made quite an impact early in their careers and while I could easily go with a defenseman like Makar or Quinn Hughes as the anchor to my team’s defense and quarterback of my power play, I am still of the belief that if possible, it’s always better to build around your centers, just like the New Jersey Devils have done over the past three years, picking up both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.
Looking at all the top centers drafted over the past three years, I’m inclined to pick the Canucks’ Pettersson as the player that I would build around. Pettersson spent his first season in the SHL where he broke numerous rookie records and was often compared to the great Sedin twins. He came to North America and had an impressive rookie season in 2018-19 in which he posted 28 goals and 66 points. He matched that production again this year with a 27-goal, 66-point campaign in 68 games, while avoiding a major injury.
The skilled forward has taken the Canucks to a whole new level of play this season and had them in the middle of a playoff race before the shutdown. Pettersson still has plenty of room to take his game up a level or two and in my opinion, makes the most sense to build a team around.
Zach Leach:
I am a firm believer in building a team around the literal centerpiece of your lineup: a top line center. Look back through the annals of NHL history and you will be hard-pressed to find a Stanley Cup winner that didn’t have an elite center on their first line and usually a top option on their second line as well. A top contender is built down the middle.
The problem with this premise and the past three draft classes is that too few centers have yet to establish themselves as “elite” in the NHL. The jury is still out on 2019 No. 1 pick Jack Hughes, who disappointed as a first-year pro, and New Jersey Devils teammate Nico Hischier is a solid two-way player, but to this point has shown limited star power. Carolina’s Martin Necas, Vegas’ Cody Glass, and Chicago’s Kirby Dach are among a large group who simply have too small of an NHL sample size as well.
Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson is the only player who might fit the bill. The reigning Calder Trophy winner has posted 66+ points in back-to-back seasons to begin his NHL career and has shown strong offensive instincts and a sniper’s touch. However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually continue to line up at center for the Canucks, who have used him on the wing more often than not this season. The winger role would seem to align better with his style and tendencies, but does bring down his value somewhat. Petterson is a hard player to pass up, but I’m not entirely sold that he can be a team’s best player.
So if not Pettersson, then who? If not a center, then what position? A superstar defenseman is another highly valuable asset and there are at least four who fit the mold among the past three classes: Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin, Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar. While all project to be elite, top-pair defensemen, only one to me is destined to be a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.
Makar is my choice as the best available player to build around. Between his collegiate career, taking UMass from an unknown to the National Championship game, to his NHL start, a strong playoff debut followed by what could very likely be a Calder-caliber rookie season, Makar has left few questions unanswered. A generational puck-mover who already skates and sees the ice as well as anyone, Makar is also not afraid to throw his weight around and shows good defensive awareness and the speed to make up for any mistakes. Perhaps most importantly, Makar has already shown some prize intangibles in college and the pros, including leadership ability and the ability to excel under pressure. Even on a loaded Avalanche roster, it is not hard to see a day when Makar could be the team’s very best player, as he could for most NHL clubs.
Gavin Lee:
In a year’s time you may be talking about Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko or Kirby Dach as potential options here, but there just hasn’t been enough time for any of them to prove they can be franchise-altering talents. That’s the kind of thing they’re going up against when you look back at the 2017 and 2018 drafts, which provided a huge number of potential league superstars.
It’s hard to argue with the selection of Pettersson, who looks like he’ll be a first-line center for years to come in Vancouver. Hughes, his teammate, would also be an outstanding pick and gives the Canucks a dynamic duo that will make opponents regret taking any penalties over the next decade. Either one would be a great building block for your franchise, just as players like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Miro Heiskanen or even Hischier—who is routinely overlooked when discussing up-and-coming talents—would be.
But my choice lies in Colorado, where Makar has quickly taken over as the second-best player on a team already loaded with other top talents. It’s easy to forget that just three years ago the toughest competition Makar had faced was in the AJHL, and now he’s making NHL opponents look silly on a regular basis. The 21-year old simply doesn’t have an offensive ceiling and could well be competing for the Norris Trophy instead of the Calder in a year’s time.
Los Angeles Kings Sign Tyler Madden
Good news for the Los Angeles Kings is bad news for Northeastern University, as Tyler Madden has signed his three-year entry-level contract. Madden recently completed his sophomore season with the Northeastern Huskies, but will now turn pro and join the Kings development system.
Madden, 20, was only acquired by the Kings earlier this year as part of the return from the Vancouver Canucks for Tyler Toffoli, but will already become a notable part of their prospect pool. Originally selected 68th overall in 2018, the son of former NHL forward John Madden has excelled at the collegiate level and internationally, putting him in the mix to quickly rise the professional ranks.
In just 27 games at Northeastern this season, the smooth-skating Madden had 19 goals and 37 points, easily leading his team in both categories and getting him a spot as a Hockey East First Team All-Star. That excellent campaign came after a strong freshman season that earned him a selection to the Hockey East All-Rookie Team, and also included a silver medal showing at the World Juniors with Team USA.
There is a lot to like about a bloodline that includes three Stanley Cups and a Selke Trophy, but the young Madden actually may have better offensive skills than his NHL father ever did. Those skills will be tested next season, likely in the minor leagues to start, but the Kings could quickly see some production from a deal that also included a second-round pick in this year’s draft.
Eddie Lack Announces Retirement
Though he hasn’t played in an NHL game since the 2017-18 season, Eddie Lack was still hoping to make it back at some point. Today, that chase has ended as the veteran goaltender announced his retirement. In his announcement video, he explained why he had to make that decision:
My hip issues have come to the point where I can live a normal life, but unfortunately it is not good enough to play professional hockey. I am content with the decision, as I know that I have done everything in my power to be able to come back but it just wasn’t meant to be. The last six years have been painfully frustrating for me. My mind wanted to play goalie a certain way, but my body wouldn’t allow me to play that way.
Lack, 32, broke in with the Vancouver Canucks in 2013 and was an immediate hit, posting a .912 save percentage in 41 starts to earn some Calder Trophy votes as one of the best rookies in the league. The following year he was even better while splitting time with Ryan Miller. Lack posted an 18-13-4 record with a .921 save percentage and was Vancouver’s starter heading into the playoffs.
Unfortunately, even that strong start to his career also was marred by injury and foreshadowed the eventual end. Lack first dealt with hip issues way back in 2013, getting a surgery that ended his minor league season prematurely. Those issues would only continue, leading Lack to play just 144 games over parts of five seasons in the league. During that time however he did win a gold medal with Sweden at the World Championships, playing behind Henrik Lundqvist. Lack will finish his playing career with a .909 save percentage.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Michael Chaput Re-Signs With Arizona Coyotes
Even in these uncertain times, Michael Chaput has found some certainty. The minor league forward has signed a new one-year contract with the Arizona Coyotes for the 2020-21 season, giving him a little stability in what has been a roller-coaster of a career. The contract will be a two-way deal, though financial details have not been released by the Coyotes. Chaput was scheduled for unrestricted free agency at the end of this season.
Chaput, 27, has already been part of several organizations in his professional career. Originally selected by the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2010 draft, he was traded before even making it out of junior. A member of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens before arriving in Arizona, it looks like he finally may be able to unpack his bags for a bit.
Through 47 games for the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL this season, the 6’2″ forward has 16 goals and 29 points. He also has suited up twice for the Coyotes but failed to record a single point. The two-way deal should come with a hefty guarantee considering his minor league success, though he’ll still have to clear waivers to end up back in the AHL next season.
Florida Panthers Agree To Terms With John Ludvig
The Florida Panthers have reached a deal with one of their 2019 draft picks, agreeing to terms with defenseman John Ludvig on a three-year entry-level contract. Ludvig plays for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL and just finished an incredible season as captain. Panthers GM Dale Tallon released a statement on his newest prospect:
John had an outstanding season for Portland in the Western Hockey League and was among the league’s top defensemen. He is a talented defenseman who possesses great compete, physicality and character. We are excited for John’s continued development and look forward to his future in the Panthers organization.
For a player who was picked in the third round, you can’t expect a much better post-draft season than the one Ludvig just completed. After scoring just 25 points in his first two WHL seasons combined, the 19-year old defenseman exploded offensively this year and finished third among all defensemen with 62 points. Add in the level of physicality that Ludvig showed in his own end and the leadership skills he possesses and it’s easy to see why the Winterhawks sat at a league-leading 45-11-7 record at the time of the WHL cancelation.
Ludvig actually went undrafted in his first year of eligibility, meaning he’ll turn 20 this summer and is eligible for the AHL next season. Whether he will be assigned to the minor leagues or return to the CHL isn’t clear, but you can bet that the front office will keep a close eye on him as a potential impact player for the Panthers.
Philadelphia Flyers Sign Wade Allison
The Philadelphia Flyers won’t be losing one of their draft prospects after all. Wade Allison has signed an entry-level contract with the team following his senior season at Western Michigan University. Allison could have become an unrestricted free agent had he waited until August (under normal league circumstances at least), but will instead start his professional career with the team that drafted him.
CapFriendly reports that the deal breaks down as follows:
2020-21: $925K salary (including signing bonus)
2021-22: $925K salary (including signing bonus), $425K in performance bonuses
Now 22, Allison is a tall, powerful winger that recorded 23 points in 26 games for the Broncos this season, serving as an alternate captain for the second year. His college career ended with 97 points in 106 games, but it’s his strong return from injury that should excite fans who were worried about his long-term career path.
In January of 2018, Allison tore his ACL. He had been on track to contend for the Hobey Baker as a sophomore with 15 goals and 30 points in his first 22 games, but that was likely the last thing on his mind at the time. How would he look when he came back, would his NHL future be in jeopardy?
More than two years later and Allison has finally signed that NHL contract and is on his way to joining the organization that used the 52nd overall pick on him back in 2016. Flyers’ AGM Brent Flahr described his newest prospect as “a great package of size, speed and skill” while suggesting that he can be a power forward at the NHL level.
PHR Panel: Draft Prospect Impact
We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Earlier this week we gave our thoughts on potential playoff formats the league could use coming out of the pause. Today, we’ll talk about how draft prospects are impacted by the sudden conclusion of their junior and college seasons.
Q: Which kind of draft prospect is impacted the most by the shortened scouting season—high-, mid- or late-round?
Brian La Rose:
By now, teams have a pretty good idea of the players that are going to be at or near the top of their draft lists. There could be some movement up or down but most players ranked in the first round on a list at this point are still probably going to be ranked in the first round when final lists are set.
The stretch run and playoffs can certainly help a mid-ranked player move up (or down) but it shouldn’t affect their stock in terms of being drafted. It would take a significant injury or a dreadful late performance to knock a player from being ranked mid-round midseason to the do not draft list.
That can’t be said for the late-round prospects. Oftentimes, a big showing in the playoffs or the Under-18’s can make that lasting impression that gets them onto the late flier list. Conversely, the lower-ranked player that played well at the start of the season but struggles in such an event can fall off the list entirely. The movement in the rankings is much more drastic.
There is a considerable gap between first-rounders and those taken after. There is a small difference between second and third-rounders relative to those who go later. But once you hit the back end of the draft, the gap is minimal and it doesn’t take much to rise or fall in those rankings. That’s why they’re the most impacted by the early ends to their respective seasons.
Holger Stolzenberg:
For the most part, high-round picks have already been established. Teams and scouts are already well aware of the top-caliber players and where they will go in the first couple of rounds. While there is always some shuffling up and down those first few rounds, most of those players have been scouted quite a bit (perhaps minus a handful of Russian prospects, but isn’t that always the case?)
It’s the later picks that are likely to be affected the most. With no playoffs coming at the junior and collegiate levels as well as overseas, many of those often-missed prospects won’t get a chance to shine at the final level and show that they should be taken earlier. Plenty of prospects establish themselves near the end of the season as they develop in their own team’s systems or get to step up and prove themselves when injuries creep up. These late-season tournaments as well as the IIHF canceling the IIHF U18 World Championships will eliminate key scouting opportunities that will have a major effect on the mid to late rounds.
Zach Leach:
Unlike the other top pro sports leagues, the NHL is unique in that all rookie contracts are more or less created equal. The entry-level system creates a narrow salary window in which each draft pick is able to negotiate his contract, while also allowing time before signing to create leverage for a greater base salary or performance bonuses within that range, as opposed to negotiating based solely on draft position.
This is all to say that the most important thing for an NHL prospect is just getting drafted, not where you are drafted. For this reason, the “late-round” prospects are absolutely the group most impacted by the Coronavirus-shortened season, as they are not locked in to be selected at all. Top prospects who can safely assume that they will be picked in the first four or five rounds have that security because there is a consensus that they are a strong NHL prospect. That consensus can only be built by multiple viewings by multiple scouts over the course of the season. A shortened season still leaves most teams with more than enough information to make a decision on those top- and middle-tier prospects. Those late-round prospects often do not have the luxury of multiple viewings by scouts. High school, prep school, Junior-A and European junior league games do not offer the same value to scouts as attending CHL, USHL, or European pro games, where there are multiple draft prospects to watch. As such, postseason play and other spring tournaments offer the best opportunities for scouts and the best chance for a late-round prospect to be seen and make an impact on a team, improving his draft odds. Many of those players will not get that opportunity this year and some lower-caliber players from bigger leagues may get the nod based on teams’ number of viewings alone.
Once a player is passed over in their first year of eligibility, earning a selection only gets tougher. So it is those fringe, late-round prospects who may have lost their chance to impress the maximum number of teams possible who will be most affected by the shortened recruiting season.
Gavin Lee:
There’s no doubt that the players at the fringe of any ranking may end up missing a chance to impress an NHL team enough to earn a selection, but I would argue that it doesn’t really change their situation all that much by going undrafted. Every year teams decide not to hand out NHL contracts to their sixth- and seventh-round picks from prior drafts, letting them become free agents or bringing them in on minor league deals instead. The situation for a seventh-round pick isn’t all that fundamentally different from one that slips by—they’re still going to have to put in a lot of hard work to prove they are worthy of an NHL contract slot.
No, I believe it is actually those first-round talents that could be affected the most, in both positive and negative manners.
Last year, just a few weeks before the draft, Peyton Krebs suffered a torn Achilles in an offseason workout. Krebs had been in line for a potential top-10 selection, ranked that high by several outlets including by TSN’s Bob McKenzie, who polls NHL scouts from around the league. Instead, after his injury, Krebs dropped to the Vegas Golden Knights at 17th. If you compare his entry-level deal to that of, say, Victor Soderstrom, who went 11th, you’ll notice that Krebs has a substantially lower number of available performance bonuses—some $750K over the three years.
For an example the other way, one can point at Mortiz Seider‘s performance for Germany at the IIHF World Championship in May of 2019 as a potential reason why he ended up being the sixth player off the board in June. NHL.com correspondent Aaron Vickers wrote exactly that last year when he spoke to players like Leon Draisaitl who was so impressed with the 18-year old’s play. Seider landed more than $2.5MM in potential performance bonuses for going so high, twice as much as Krebs and certainly more than he would have at his #16 ranking in the same TSN scouting poll.
Anaheim Ducks Sign Trevor Zegras
Even though he only just turned 19 and had an up-and-down (if at times jaw-dropping) season at Boston University, Trevor Zegras is about to turn pro. The Anaheim Ducks have announced a three-year entry-level contract for the star freshman. Ducks GM Bob Murray had this to say about his newest forward:
We are happy to get this contract done and start Trevor’s professional career. He’s got quite a bit of work ahead of him, but we know he’s got the talent and intelligence to be an impactful NHL player.
Even if his freshman season was a bit rocky at times, there’s absolutely zero doubt that Zegras has the kind of talent to be a dominant player at the NHL level. The ninth-overall pick from 2019 recorded 36 points in 33 games for the Terriers, earning him a selection to the Hockey East All-Rookie team. Perhaps even more impressive than his performance in college was the show he put on at the World Juniors, recording nine primary assists (several which rendered spectators speechless) in limited ice time.
Make no mistake, Zegras’ playmaking ability would fit in on an NHL powerplay right now. The rest of his game still needs some polish, but there is no ceiling in sight for the Ducks’ newest star prospect. Whether he steps right into the NHL or spends some time honing his skills in the minor leagues isn’t clear at this point, but getting him into their organization and development program as soon as possible allows the Anaheim front office to control his destiny.
Again, Zegras won’t turn 20 until next March, meaning his contract could potentially slide another year if he doesn’t play in ten NHL games during the 2020-21 season. He will however be eligible to play in the AHL—the 20-year old age threshold is only for players drafted out of the CHL.
Scott Perunovich Agrees To Terms With St. Louis Blues
The St. Louis Blues have convinced one of their top college prospects to turn pro, agreeing to terms with Scott Perunovich. Interestingly though, this deal comes with a twist according to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic. Perunovich has agreed to two different versions of his entry-level contract. One would start in the 2019-20 season if it resumes at some point, and the other would be starting in 2020-21. The deal is for two seasons either way, though obviously would expire at different times.
Perunovich, 21, was the 45th selection in the 2018 draft and has continued to dominate at the college level. As a junior this year for the University of Minnesota-Duluth, he recorded 40 points in 34 games—as a defenseman mind you—and was named a top-10 finalist for the Hobey Baker Award as the country’s top college player.
Should the season resume at some point, Perunovich would actually be eligible to play for the Blues right away. Just as other college prospects have in recent years like Charlie McAvoy, Brock Boeser and Cale Makar, the young defenseman could be an impact player right away at the NHL level.
The 5’10” 175-lbs defenseman has won almost countless awards during his time at UMD, including the Tim Taylor Award as the NCAA’s best rookie in 2018. Add in two national titles with the Bulldogs, a World Junior bronze medal with Team USA and a potential Hobey Baker and you have a player that’s ready for the next level.
Colorado Avalanche Sign Jacob MacDonald
The Colorado Avalanche have reached another extension with a minor league standout, inking Jacob MacDonald to a two-year contract. The deal comes after the team extended T.J. Tynan yesterday, and secures the Colorado Eagles will have their top two offensive weapons again next season. MacDonald was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer but will now remain under contract through the 2021-22 season.
While MacDonald may be listed as a defenseman on the release, he’s been much more than that for the Eagles this season. Thanks to the injuries that the Avalanche were dealing with, the Eagles were at times short on capable forwards. That’s when they turned to MacDonald, who moved up and became one of the team’s key offensive contributors. In 56 games with the Eagles this season the 27-year old has 42 points, only a few shy of Tynan’s 47. The idea that he can play both positions successfully makes him even more valuable, but there could even be more than just the AHL in his future.
Though he may have only two games at the NHL level in his career, MacDonald has been so successful in the minor leagues he may be fighting for a roster spot with the Avalanche at some point. The team does have several players headed for free agency, including Mark Barberio and Kevin Connauton who will both be unrestricted. Even Nikita Zadorov, who is still a restricted free agent, could have an uncertain future with the club thanks to his cost. The 24-year old would need a $3.2MM qualifying offer, a number that becomes a little trickier to swallow should the salary cap stay flat (or even decrease) thanks to lost revenue.
Even without an NHL opportunity, it’s obvious that MacDonald can be an asset for the Colorado organization.