Snapshots: League Calendar, Stars, Quick, Walker
Over the last couple of summers, the NHL has been forced to modify its schedule which has resulted in free agency starting late the last two years. Last summer, it was July 28th while it will be July 13th this time around. As Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reports (Twitter link), the league plans to get back to a typical league calendar for 2022-23 which would see the start of free agency next summer come on July 1st.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Stars GM Jim Nill told Saad Yousef of The Athletic (subscription link) that the team plans to address their right-defense situation this summer. John Klingberg is a pending UFA that will need to be re-signed or replaced while Jani Hakanpaa is their other right-shot option. Nill is a proponent of having three lefties and three righties on the back end so don’t be surprised if Dallas is on the lookout for another right-shot rearguard even if they’re able to keep Klingberg in the fold.
- As we get close to the annual goaltending carousel around the NHL, Eric Duhatschek of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick should be garnering some attention as a possible candidate to move. After reclaiming the starting role this season, the 36-year-old helped lead Los Angeles back to the playoffs. Quick is down to just one year left on his contract so for a team that’s looking for a short-term addition to try to stabilize the situation between the pipes, he could be a viable option.
- After recently stepping aside as an assistant coach in Vancouver, Scott Walker has found his next job as Guelph of the OHL announced that they’ve hired Walker as their new head coach. Walker was the president of hockey operations for the Storm last season and had previously been a co-owner and head coach of the team so this was a decision that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
Atlantic Notes: Senators, Sabres, Point
The Senators are among the teams that have at least suggested a potentially willingness to move their first-rounder to add a win-now player. With the seventh-overall selection, it would appear on the surface that they could get a quality veteran for that pick but some league executives told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that Ottawa will likely need to add to that selection to get the type of player they’re seeking. GM Pierre Dorion has stated that they’re willing to move some prospects as well and those executives suggest one of those would have to be added to provide enough value to convince a team to part with a key veteran. Garrioch suggests Minnesota winger Kevin Fiala and Vegas center William Karlsson as cap casualties that could be on the move this summer that might be of interest to Ottawa. Fiala is a pending restricted free agent while Karlsson has five years left on his contract with a $5.9MM AAV.
More from the Atlantic:
- While many of Buffalo’s pending unrestricted free agents are likely to move on, Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News suggests that forward Vinnie Hinostroza and defenseman Mark Pysyk are candidates to stick around with the Sabres next season. Hinostroza was a decent depth scorer in 2021-22, notching 13 goals and 12 assists in 62 games and if he’s willing to sign for around the $1.05MM he made this season, it would certainly make sense to keep him around. As for Pysyk, he shifted back to the back end after spending some time up front with Dallas and logged nearly 18 minutes a night in 68 contests. He made $900K this season and should come in with a similar price tag so if Buffalo wants some low-cost depth that’s familiar with their system, re-signing him would be a worthwhile move as well.
- Lightning head coach Jon Cooper told reporters, including ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, that center Brayden Point will officially be a game-time decision. He took the gameday skate and will later decide whether or not to take part in pregame warmups with a call on whether or not to play to come after that. Point has missed the last nine games with a lower-body injury sustained in the final game of the opening round against Toronto.
Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Canucks.
It was a season of change for Vancouver. The big move to add Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland last summer didn’t help, resulting in GM Jim Benning being shown the door with Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford coming over from Pittsburgh to lead the front office. They underachieved under Travis Green, resulting in Bruce Boudreau taking over behind the bench and while they didn’t get to the playoffs, they were much more competitive in the second half. Now, Allvin has some big files to tackle this summer as he looks to get the Canucks back into the playoff picture.
Free Up Long-Term Cap Flexibility
The Canucks have enough flexibility that they can navigate through this summer, keep the core intact, and give it another go next season. But that doesn’t make the team any better and maintaining the status quo will only make it harder to make their cap situation work a year from now. They have $48.5MM in commitments to ten players for 2023-24. On the surface, that would appear to be manageable. But J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat, and Brock Boeser aren’t in that group while Elias Pettersson will be extension-eligible at that time as well. If those players all sign for market value, that really will limit them in terms of upgrading their roster. That’s at the forefront of their offseason planning.
With that in mind, Allvin needs to find ways to create some extra space. Tanner Pearson isn’t on a terrible contract at $3.25MM for two more years but they could save some money by replacing him with a cheaper piece, perhaps Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko who they’ve been linked to. Jason Dickinson was brought in to solidify the third-line center spot, receiving a commensurate contract in the process, one that pays him $2.65MM for the next two seasons. He didn’t fit in well in his first season with the Canucks, scoring just five goals in 62 games. Finding a new home for one or both of them would give them a bit of wiggle room next summer when they’ll really feel the cap crunch.
To that end, one other route they could look to go is finding a taker for the final year of Micheal Ferland‘s LTIR contract. Yes, his $3.5MM AAV is an expiring deal next summer but if they can clear him out and stay out of using LTIR, they might be able to avoid the bonus overage penalty for 23-24 with Vasily Podkolzin and Nils Hoglander carrying sizable incentives in their contracts; Kuzmenko will likely have plenty as well if he winds up joining the Canucks. They can manage the cap situation this summer but they will need to be aggressive in freeing up some flexibility from there.
Decide Miller And Horvat’s Future
Let’s dig into some of those players that are about to get a lot more expensive. Miller is at the top of that list. He’s coming off a breakout season that saw him lead the Canucks in scoring and narrowly miss out on reaching the 100-point plateau. He also has spent a lot of time down the middle which will only increase his value. He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and impact centers rarely become available. Those that do get significant paydays and it’s safe to say Miller will be heading for one of those compared to the $5.25MM cap charge he’ll carry next season. That expected contract is what had him in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the deadline.
Rutherford (who has made the rounds in the media lately) has made it clear in recent interviews that the team expects to be able to keep Miller in the fold. Some of the recent comparable centers that have signed long-term deals (Mika Zibanejad, Tomas Hertl, and Logan Couture) all signed for $8MM or more while Sean Couturier came in just under that. All received eight-year deals. Miller’s production was higher than theirs this season but that was the only time he was over the point-per-game mark which should keep the AAV on a max-term extension somewhere in the range of those comparables.
If they go ahead and sign Miller to a deal like that, it’s going to make it harder to keep Horvat in the fold. With Miller in the $8MM range and Pettersson needing a qualifying offer of $8.82MM in the 2024 offseason, can Vancouver really afford to have another high-priced pivot in Horvat? While he won’t command the type of money their other two centers make, he’ll be in line for a raise on his $5.5MM AAV on his next deal and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he surpassed the $7MM mark.
While they may want to keep both of them in the fold, it will be very difficult for them to do so. Accordingly, they’ll need to find out who is willing to stay and what the asking prices are and then decide whether to start shopping one now or keep both into the season in the hopes of getting back to the playoffs. Some big decisions are on the horizon, to say the least.
Re-Sign Boeser
Most of Vancouver’s cap space this summer is heading for Boeser. Unlike Pettersson, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his salary from this season is his qualifying offer which puts the required tender at $7.5MM. While the team certainly hoped that the winger would be able to emerge as a legitimate front-line winger, Boeser has yet to reach the 30-goal mark or record more than 56 points in a single season. On the surface, that type of production for $7.5MM isn’t ideal.
If the Canucks tender Boeser, the winger can simply accept the offer and become UFA-eligible in 2023 or try his luck with salary arbitration and hope for a small bump up. Neither is an ideal scenario for Vancouver as it would make him expensive and a rental all at the same time. It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance they’d non-tender him but they could opt for club-elected arbitration to try to get him a little cheaper as the required offer would be 90% or $6.75MM.
Knowing that, Allvin will be wanting to try to get this one resolved sooner than later. A long-term deal at or around this rate wouldn’t yield much in the way of savings but would ensure one of their top wingers will be around for a while. If discussions on that front don’t go well, however, it’s reasonable to expect Boeser will be in trade speculation as well.
Revamp The Back End
On top of all of these decisions up front, Vancouver has some work to do on their defense as well. Quinn Hughes has become a top offensive option and Ekman-Larsson is still a top-four rearguard even if he is no longer the player he was a few years ago with Arizona. After that, however, things thin out quickly.
The Canucks don’t have much in the way of offensive options behind Hughes (Travis Dermott might help a little in this regard), nor do they have a lot of depth on the right side. Tyler Myers is miscast in a top role while Luke Schenn is a capable depth blueliner but not someone who should be higher than the third pairing in an ideal situation. That’s it for righties they can count on with Tucker Poolman’s availability being in question after missing basically half the season with recurring headaches and migraines. There’s a case to be made that Vancouver needs a couple of top-four defensemen as a result although they’ll be hard-pressed to afford even one unless they can find a way to free up some short-term money for next season and some long-term money knowing what lies ahead in the 2023 summer. Allvin certainly has his work cut out for him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Golden Knights Showing Interest In Bruce Cassidy As Next Head Coach
It has been an offseason of some surprise when it comes to the coaching carousel around the league. Vegas opted to part ways with Peter DeBoer, their second coaching change in their five seasons of existence, making them one of the more prominent teams looking for a new bench boss. Recently, there was a surprise addition to the coaching market when Boston let Bruce Cassidy go earlier this week. As Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports (video link), the Golden Knights have started to key in on Cassidy as their top candidate over the last few days.
Regular season success is something that Cassidy had plenty of in his days with the Bruins posting a 245-108-46 record with him behind the bench, good for a .652 points percentage. Vegas has been under that mark in two of the last three seasons. However, his track record of playoff success hasn’t been as good as Boston went 36-37 in the postseason under their former bench boss which is something that teams will certainly be considering as they work through evaluating him.
Vegas is certainly one of the more appealing teams looking for a head coach. They’re an organization that clearly has a win-now mindset and they have shown no hesitance towards spending to the Upper Limit (or higher, considering their cap management in recent years). Both of those have to be appealing to any coaching candidate although the quick trigger on coaching changes also stands out.
Cassidy has expressed a desire to jump right back into coaching and would be a good fit in Vegas so it will be interesting to see if they can get a deal done over the next few days. It would go a long way towards kickstarting the coaching shuffle as things have slowed to a crawl on that front with many feeling Barry Trotz’s decision on where to go next is holding things up. If Vegas goes a different direction and opts for Cassidy, perhaps that domino falling will get things going on that front soon after.
Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Jets.
After being ousted by Montreal in the playoffs a year ago, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff shored up the back end with the hopes that would help Winnipeg get to that next level. Instead, they underachieved this season, both with and without Paul Maurice behind the bench, and ultimately came up short of reaching the playoffs. Cheveldayoff once again will have some work to do to try to get the Jets back into the postseason picture.
Hire A Head Coach
With Maurice surprisingly stepping aside midseason, Cheveldayoff made the logical choice to elevate Dave Lowry to the interim head coaching role. It didn’t result in the type of improvement they were hoping for as Winnipeg’s points percentage under Lowry (.537) was basically identical to Maurice’s (.534). In other words, the coaching change didn’t move the needle.
Lowry was the logical choice at the time in that the team wouldn’t have had the opportunity to interview assistants currently employed if they made a full-time hire midseason. While a handful of assistants are still working at the moment, the team has been able to do a more comprehensive search (beyond Barry Trotz, who is basically singlehandedly holding up the market right now).
While Lowry is expected to interview for the full-time role, a new voice from outside the organization would make the most sense. A new system from a new coach could be a significant enough change to avoid needing to necessarily make any core changes to the roster. Cheveldayoff is thought of as one of the managers who tends to be patient with his rosters so it’s quite possible that a big addition behind the bench could be their biggest move of the summer. But with free agency fast approaching (where coaches want to have their input), a new coach will need to be in place soon.
Re-Sign Dubois
When Cheveldayoff decided to shake up his core early in the 2020-21 season with the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, the 2022 offseason became a very important one for the Jets. That corresponded with the end of Dubois’ contract as the 23-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility this summer. He has already gone through one contentious negotiation, one that ended with a trade request out of Columbus, and now, Dubois is two years away from being eligible to hit the open market.
He’s coming off a strong season, one that saw him reach a career-high in goals (28) while picking up 60 points. That has him positioned to land more than the $6MM qualifying offer he’s owed but the question is how much higher should they be willing to go? If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that buys up some UFA years (and Dubois is amenable to signing that type of contract), the AAV is likely to go beyond Kyle Connor’s $7.143MM price tag. Do they want to go that high and reset the benchmark for their younger core?
On top of that, there is also a question of where Dubois best fits. He was brought in to play center but he has spent a fair amount of time on the wing as well. A long-term, big-money deal could potentially price them out of re-signing Mark Scheifele in a couple of years; does it make sense to do that for a player who may be better off as a winger than a center?
If it feels like there are a lot of questions for a pending restricted free agent, it’s because there are. The route they go with Dubois will help shape their planning for beyond the 2022-23 campaign so getting this done sooner than later would be ideal. Dubois is likely to file for an arbitration hearing if something isn’t worked out over the next six weeks so this is something that will need to be resolved by late July or early August at the latest.
Create Cap Flexibility
The Jets have around $18MM available this summer but have anywhere between seven and ten players to sign with that money. A big chunk of that will go to Dubois which won’t leave a lot to spread around the rest of the openings. Freeing up a bit of extra flexibility would certainly help Cheveldayoff to build out the rest of the roster without having to resort to signing several players for minimum-salary deals to stay cap compliant. Forward depth has been problematic the last couple of years so being able to spend a bit more on their bottom six would help.
In order to do that, they will likely need to trade away from their back end as there really aren’t any viable non-core forwards that could be traded to free up space. They have nearly $25MM tied up in their five most-expensive blueliners which is a lot. Nate Schmidt didn’t have a great trade market a year ago and that likely hasn’t changed while Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk aren’t likely to go anywhere. That whittles it down to Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM through 2023-24) and Dylan DeMelo ($3MM through 2023-24); moving one of them to make a roster spot for a prospect like Ville Heinola or Dylan Samberg would give them some cap relief and also provide a chance for one of them to get an extended look in the NHL. In a summer where many teams will be looking for some extra flexibility, any little bit helps.
Fill Backup Goalie Slot
Eric Comrie more or less got the backup goalie spot by default with the Jets due to his contract being at the league minimum. To his credit, he did quite well this season, posting a .920 SV% and 2.58 GAA in 19 appearances, giving Winnipeg solid value from that backup spot. But Comrie is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and after the year he had, he should be able to command more than $750K on the open market.
The Jets will once again need to shop towards the lower end of the market unless they can free up a few extra million in cap space but while Mikhail Berdin is on a one-way deal for next season, his performance with AHL Manitoba isn’t good enough to really contend for that spot so they will almost certainly have to look outside the organization if they can’t reach a new deal with Comrie. Considering the opening day of free agency usually results in quite the game of musical chairs for netminders, this is something Cheveldayoff will need to address by July 13th.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Snapshots: King Clancy, Smith, Somppi
The NHL award being revealed on Tuesday was the King Clancy Trophy which is given annually “to the player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community”. It was announced that Devils defenseman P.K. Subban is this year’s winner. He created the P.K. Subban Foundation in 2014 while playing with Montreal and pledged $10MM over seven years to Montreal Children’s Hospital. Subban also founded Blueline Buddies in 2016 when he played for Nashville and earlier this year, he donated $1MM in support of Le Spot, a Montreal mental health clinic while also matching donations to help Ukrainian cancer patients. It’s the fourth time that Subban has been a finalist for the award with this being his first win. Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf and Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse were the other finalists.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Oilers goaltender Mike Smith met with reporters today (video link) and indicated that it’s “too early to tell” if he’s going to return next season. The 40-year-old had an up-and-down season and acknowledged that he played through injuries for most of the year but still managed to post a .915 SV% in 28 games during the regular season, a number that he came close to maintaining in the playoffs (.913). Smith is signed for next season already with a $2.2MM cap hit but he is not subject to the 35-plus rule that many veterans are. In the last CBA, a provision was put in that says the rule does not apply if the compensation in each year is uniform or if the salary increases each year. The latter applies to Smith so Edmonton wouldn’t face a cap penalty if he opted to retire.
- Pending Lightning RFA forward Otto Somppi has decided to head overseas for next season as Lukko of the Finnish Liiga announced that they’ve signed the 24-year-old to a one-year deal. Somppi has spent the last four seasons in Tampa Bay’s farm system but never received a recall to the NHL. In 50 games this season with AHL Syracuse, he had 23 points. Tampa Bay can retain Somppi’s NHL rights through 2025 by issuing him a qualifying offer next month.
Tyler Lewington Signs In Austria
After spending most of the past seven seasons in the minors, pending UFA Tyler Lewington has opted for a change of scenery as EC Salzburg of Austria’s ICE HL announced they’ve signed the defenseman to a one-year contract.
The 27-year-old signed a two-way deal worth a guaranteed $400K with Boston last summer on the opening day of free agency, giving the Bruins some veteran depth in the minors that could be called upon when injuries arose. However, Lewington only suited up in two games at the top level and instead spent the bulk of the year with AHL Providence where he had nine points and 66 penalty minutes in 55 games.
Over his career, Lewington has suited up in a dozen NHL contests between Washington, Nashville, and Boston with most of his playing time coming in the AHL where he has 341 career regular season appearances under his belt. The games he played this season qualified him for veteran status in the minors and AHL teams can only dress five of those in a game so having that designation likely would have negatively affected Lewington’s market this summer. Knowing that, he got a head start on the market with this move, one that should see him have a chance to play a bigger role next season with the Red Bulls and if all goes well, he could still return to play in North America down the road.
Five Key Stories: 5/30/22 – 6/5/22
With just four teams still playing, the majority of the biggest news of the week came away from the ice and is recapped in our key stories.
Prospects Released: June 1st is one of the dates to watch for when it comes to signing deadlines for certain prospects. That came and went with teams parting ways with a total of 28 different youngsters who, depending on their age, will either re-enter the draft next month or become unrestricted free agents. Dallas and Montreal both parted ways with players that were picked in the second round while Minnesota took the rare step of opting not to sign a first-rounder from that draft class in defenseman Filip Johansson, who went 24th overall in 2018. As a result, the Wild will receive the 24th pick of the second round this year (56th overall) as compensation; unsigned players picked outside the first round do not yield compensatory picks.
Minnesota Surgeries: It was revealed that Wild defenseman Jared Spurgeon underwent core muscle surgery after the playoffs while winger Mats Zuccarello will need the same procedure done. The recovery time for the procedure is six to eight weeks. Spurgeon played through the injury for more than half the season but still managed to put up 40 points in 65 games while averaging over 21 minutes a night. Zuccarello, meanwhile, had a career year with 79 points in 70 contests and was also playing through a leg fracture. However, that one is expected to heal with rest and he won’t need surgery for that injury.
Gardiner Cleared: Hurricanes defenseman Jake Gardiner missed all of the 2021-22 season with hip and back injuries and with how much time he has missed lately, some had wondered if his playing days were over. That won’t be the case as GM Don Waddell indicated that the veteran has now been fully cleared to return next season. Carolina went into LTIR this season with Gardiner and his $4.05MM AAV but they won’t have that avenue moving forward. He has one year left on his deal and with him being cleared, he could become a buyout candidate when the window opens up after the Stanley Cup Final. The team has roughly $19MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly, but they have several core players on expiring deals including blueliner Tony DeAngelo, center Vincent Trocheck, and winger Nino Niederreiter.
St. Louis Signs: Martin St. Louis was surprisingly named as Montreal’s interim head coach midseason when Dominique Ducharme was let go and while it didn’t result in any sort of big turnaround, the Canadiens were more competitive down the stretch. He did well enough to convince management to remove the interim tag as St. Louis signed a three-year contract to officially become their head coach. The team went 14-19-4 after he took over but it was the offensive improvement from several of their players – particularly Cole Caufield – that stood out. With Montreal expected to be rebuilding for another couple of years at least, St. Louis is an understandable choice to continue on for now with an emphasis on player development.
Kadri Out, Kane Suspended: The Avalanche suffered a big blow when Nazem Kadri was injured in the third game of the Western Conference Final on a hit from behind on Evander Kane. He has already been ruled out for the rest of the series and potentially longer according to head coach Jared Bednar. The 31-year-old has had a strong postseason thus far with 14 points in 13 games, carrying on his strong play from the regular season. As for Kane, he received a five-minute major penalty on the play and was issued a one-game suspension that will keep him out of a must-win contest on Monday as Edmonton looks to stay alive in the series.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Focus: Washington Capitals
Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Capitals.
Key Restricted Free Agents
G Ilya Samsonov – After a disappointing sophomore year, the Capitals were hoping that the 25-year-old would have a bounce-back campaign and stake his claim to the starting spot. It didn’t happen. Instead, Samsonov’s performance dipped once again with a save percentage of just .896 while his GAA jumped to 3.02. In other words, he performed like a backup goalie. Samsonov is owed a $2MM qualifying offer but is now arbitration-eligible which will help drive the price tag a little higher but it would be hard to see Washington offer a long-term deal. He still will be RFA-eligible next summer so a one-year contract that gives him one more chance makes the most sense for both sides.
G Vitek Vanecek – Washington opted to trade a second-round pick to Seattle to get Vanecek back a week after they lost him in expansion and it’s a move that worked out well for them. The 26-year-old had a near-repeat performance of his rookie year, posting an identical save percentage of .908 and improving slightly on his GAA from 2.69 to 2.67. The qualifying offer for under $800K but it’s irrelevant as he’ll get at least three times that on his next deal. Unlike Samsonov, Vanecek is a year away from UFA eligibility so they might be inclined to work on a multi-year pact with him which could push the price tag closer to the $3.5MM range.
Other RFAs: D Tobias Geisser, D Lucas Johansen, F Brett Leason, F Beck Malenstyn
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Justin Schultz – Schultz was a surprise signing in 2020 considering Washington had little cap space at the time which made it seem unlikely that they’d use a lot of it on one player. His first year with them was good and he was able to hold down a spot in their top four, averaging just over 19 minutes a game. However, things didn’t go as well this season. His production dipped to 23 points in 74 games (a bit on the low side for an offensive defenseman) while he dipped below 17 minutes in ATOI as he was more sheltered; in the playoffs, that dipped to just over 15 minutes. The Schultz of 2020-21 was close to being worth his $4MM AAV but this year’s version wasn’t near that price point. Still just 31, there will be a market for him – especially as a right-shot defender – but he will be hard-pressed to land a raise in free agency. A small dip appears likely.
F Marcus Johansson – It took a little while for Johansson to sign last summer, eventually agreeing to a one-year, $1.5MM deal with Seattle before making his way to Washington at the trade deadline for the second go-round with the team. His per-game numbers were quite similar to his 2020-21 performance so it stands to reason that he should be able to command a similar price tag this time around. Johansson’s positional versatility will help his market but at this point of his career, he’s more of a depth scorer than a top-six player like he was just a few years ago.
F Johan Larsson – Larsson has shown flashes of offensive skill in the past but it hasn’t yielded much production. He had a bigger role while he was with Arizona and there was a corresponding increase in production as he was just over a half a point per game before being moved to the Capitals at the trade deadline. Generally speaking, teams will want to go low on their fourth liners and role players to save some cap space but Larsson has a chance to be an exception as a decent checking center that can chip in a bit from the fourth line. He should have a chance to at least come close to the $1.4MM AAV he had in each of the last two years.
Other UFAs: G Pheonix Copley, F Shane Gersich, D Matt Irwin, D Michal Kempny, F Brian Pinho
Projected Cap Space
Washington enters this offseason with just under $9MM in cap space and two big question marks with the injuries to Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson. They could both be LTIR-bound to start the season but at least in Wilson’s case, he’ll be back after a couple of months. With Backstrom, everything is on the table still with GM Brian MacLellan saying continuing to play through his injury would be unsustainable. If they shut him down for a year with surgery, he could stay on LTIR throughout the year and the Capitals would have some flexibility.
Until they know one way or the other, they can’t plan for that to happen so for now, the bulk of that $9MM will need to go towards their two RFA goaltenders while they’ll also need to sign a defenseman or two with the leftover money. Unless Backstrom is ruled out for the season, MacLellan won’t have much cap flexibility to work with this summer.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Islanders.
This past season was a tough one for New York. They were forced to start with a 13-game road trip to ensure their new arena was ready to go and got hit hard with COVID-related absences soon after. That put them in too much of a hole to climb out of. Despite making the Eastern Conference Final the previous two years, GM Lou Lamoriello opted for a coaching change, dismissing Barry Trotz and elevating Lane Lambert to the top role. However, that can’t be the only thing they do this summer if they want to get back into contention; Lamoriello has a few other items on his to-do list in the coming months.
Add Scoring Help
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Scoring has been an issue for this team for a while as they haven’t averaged three goals per game since the 2017-18 season. Part of that can be attributed to Trotz’s defense-first system but there isn’t a lot of firepower on this team. Only Brock Nelson and Anders Lee cracked the 20-goal plateau this season and over the final two months of the year, Mathew Barzal was regularly playing with Zach Parise and Oliver Wahlstrom; with all due respect to those players, that’s probably not the optimal combination for their most skilled forward.
Back at the trade deadline when the Isles were very quiet, Lamoriello opted not to make any changes, stating that his focus was on ‘hockey trades’ to bring in pieces that better fit his roster.
With the team having barely $12MM in cap space and several roster spots to fill with that money, they don’t have the financial flexibility to be aggressive bidders on the free agent market. Accordingly, this is one of those situations where Lamoriello will make a hockey trade and move out an underachiever for someone that’s a better fit. Wingers Josh Bailey (two years, $5MM AAV) and Anthony Beauvillier (two years, $4.15MM) are candidates to move from their existing forward group while veteran goaltender Semyon Varlamov (one year, $5MM) could also make sense if they find a trade that’s acceptable to the 34-year-old who has a 16-team no-trade clause. Either way, whether it’s one of them moving or someone else, New York will need more offensive production to get back into the playoff picture.
Re-Sign Dobson
A good chunk of their cap space is going to be heading towards defenseman Noah Dobson who is set to become a restricted free agent this summer. After his first two NHL seasons were relatively quiet, 2021-22 was a breakout year that allowed the 22-year-old to finish third on the team in points with 51 including 13 goals. For perspective, the rest of their blueliners combined for 19. Not surprisingly, Dobson’s ATOI jumped up by more than five minutes a night from his sophomore campaign. In other words, he had quite the platform year.
While the Islanders would undoubtedly like to lock Dobson up on a long-term deal, that would go against Lamoriello’s tendencies as he has continually opted for bridge contracts for his core RFAs including Barzal and defenseman Ryan Pulock in recent years. A short-term pact would also allow them some extra cap flexibility to try to upgrade their roster. That makes the bridge deal the likeliest scenario.
The extremes between Dobson’s first two seasons and this one will make it tricky to find the right number and without arbitration eligibility, the Islanders hold more of the leverage. A two-year deal with an AAV around the $3MM range which is more than what Pulock and Adam Pelech received on their second contracts while a third season could push it closer to the $4MM range. Anything longer than that would walk Dobson to unrestricted free agency so it’s likely that three years is the maximum term that New York will want to go. It may take a while – Dobson’s only leverage is to delay signing in the hopes of getting a better offer later – but eventually, the two sides will come together on a short-term pact.
Rebuild The Defense
Over the past few years, the NHL has started to shift towards a more mobile back end. The Islanders have been one of the exceptions but now as they work to retool things under a new head coach, this is the right time to try to kickstart that change.
Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene have been successful defensemen in the league for quite a while but mobility has been an issue for both of them while their offensive games are also quite limited. Both are pending unrestricted free agents and should be replaced with younger, better fits. Sebastian Aho is more of a mobile blueliner but has struggled in his own end in limited NHL action. He’s also a pending UFA and will need to be retained or replaced. That’s three roster spots that they’ll need to try to fill within their limited cap space and in terms of in-house options, only Robin Salo might be able to push for a spot at the end of the roster.
It’s also worth noting that Scott Mayfield is a year away from UFA eligibility as well and will be eyeing a sizable raise from the $1.45MM cap hit he’s on now. Any multi-year commitments they make this summer will offset how much they can give to Mayfield a year from now so that’s something Lamoriello will have to weigh as he navigates the open market this summer.
With Pelech, Pulock, and Dobson, the Isles have a strong core back end that is either signed or under club control for at least the next four years. That’s a strong foundation to work with. Now, improvements will need to be made at the bottom end within a very tight cap situation to start moving towards a younger, more mobile defensive group.
Work On Barzal Extension
Three years ago, the Islanders and Barzal eventually worked out a three-year bridge deal, one that will be expiring next summer. That means once the calendar flips to the start of the 2022-23 league year in mid-July, the two sides will be able to work on a contract extension. After the season, Barzal stated that he wants to work out a long-term contract and is hopeful to remain with New York for his full career, a proclamation that is certainly encouraging from the team’s standpoint.
Barzal will be owed a qualifying offer of $8.4MM which is 120% of his current AAV; that’s the lower number between it and his salary for next season ($10MM). He’ll also have arbitration eligibility at that time. That qualifying number, therefore, serves as the absolute minimum starting point for negotiations as if the 25-year-old doesn’t like what the long-term offers look like, he can simply accept the qualifier in 2023 and become UFA-eligible a year later.
The potential challenge here is that Barzal hasn’t exactly produced at a level that’s worthy of offering considerably more than the qualifier. While he averaged more than a point per game in his rookie season, the most he has gotten since then is 62 points. He’s undoubtedly their most gifted offensive player but in a more defensive environment under Trotz, his numbers have suffered. If Barzal thinks things will open up under Lambert, it may make more sense for him to play out next season and see what happens from there knowing the qualifying offer will still be on the table at that time. But if Lamoriello comes in with a long-term offer in the $9MM range, it might be enough to give Barzal a chance to play for the Islanders for a long time to come.
They may not get a deal done this summer but both sides seem likely to give it a shot. It isn’t as pressing as some of the other elements that will affect their plans for next season but as the offseason goes on and things slow down, that would be an optimal time to get to work on Barzal’s file.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.