Latest On Boston’s Pending Unrestricted Free Agents
Veteran center David Krejci indicated after the playoffs that he’d take some time to think about his future. While he hasn’t made a final decision about retiring yet, he told Dominik Dubovci of hokej.cz that when the puck drops on the 2023-24 campaign, he will not be playing, either in Boston or back home.
The 37-year-old returned to the Bruins this past season after spending a year back home. He basically picked up where he left off, notching 16 goals and 40 assists in 70 games, providing Boston with an important secondary scoring boost which helped play a role in them taking home the Presidents’ Trophy during the regular season. That performance helped earn Krejci the 16th spot on our Top 50 free agents list, even with the expectation that it would be the Bruins or retirement for him.
Krejci admitted that Prague hosting the 2024 World Championship is particularly appealing to him so he’s not ruling out playing at some point next season. While it’s possible that it could be with the Bruins, signing with them would run the risk of not being able to play in the tournament if Boston was able to pull off a long playoff run.
If that’s the case, it’s possible that Krejci could opt to play for part of next season back home, get named to Czechia’s entry for the Worlds, and call it a career on home ice. It’s a scenario that Krejci himself didn’t think was feasible back in May when he said he’d either play in Boston or retire. But a chance to go out on home soil while representing his country certainly is an enticing scenario.
Either way, the Bruins will be entering this weekend’s free agent period with certainty now that Krejci will not be on their roster in October when 2023-24 gets underway. It remains to be seen what happens with fellow veteran middleman Patrice Bergeron and with his future also being in question, Boston will undoubtedly be looking to try to fill two center spots over the coming days.
They also will be looking to fill a key winger slot as David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period relays (Twitter link) that Tyler Bertuzzi will be heading to the open market on Saturday. When they moved Taylor Hall to Chicago on Monday to free up $6MM in cap space, there was some expectation that Boston would then turn around and try to get something done with Bertuzzi and then make another cap-clearing move. Clearly, that hasn’t happened.
The 28-year-old is coming off a quiet season, one that saw him manage just eight goals and 22 assists in 50 games. However, Bertuzzi is only a year removed from a 30-goal campaign while he also has two other 21-goal campaigns under his belt so it’s believed that this was a blip and not a sign of things to come.
Bertuzzi’s performance with Boston certainly helps to fuel that belief. After being acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline, he picked up 16 points in 21 games down the stretch before tying for the team lead in scoring in their first-round loss to Florida with five goals and five assists in seven contests. That performance landed him in the tenth spot in our rankings, fifth among wingers.
Barring any moves being made tomorrow, Boston will enter Saturday’s free agent period with a little over $11MM in cap space, per CapFriendly. However, with six forwards to sign with that money along with re-signing netminder Jeremy Swayman, a lot of their shopping is likely to come at the lower end of the market even though they have several prominent players to try to replace.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sabres Notes: Jost, Draft, Rochester
With the deadline for tendering a qualifying offer now less than 24 hours away, Sabres GM Kevyn Adams told Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald that the ball is in Tyson Jost’s court as the two sides try to plug away at a new contract. The 25-year-old was claimed on waivers back in November from Minnesota and had some success with his new team, picking up 22 points in 59 games. However, he’s owed a $2.25MM qualifying offer tomorrow, one that also grants him arbitration eligibility. That offer is a bit on the pricey side for someone who has yet to have a lot of offensive success in the NHL, not to mention the risk of the arbitrator adding to that. Adams noted that discussions have been ongoing for several weeks now so it’s clear that Buffalo would like to keep Jost in the fold but if a deal can’t be reached by 4 PM CT on Friday, there’s a decent chance that the center will be non-tendered.
More from Buffalo:
- The Sabres were among the teams that were trying to move up into the top ten last night, Adams noted (video link). However, those efforts were rebuffed but in the end, they wound up with the player that they were trying to move up to get as forward Zach Benson, a consensus top-ten selection heading into the draft, wound up slipping to Buffalo at the 13th pick.
- Buffalo’s AHL affiliate in Rochester has added a pair of youngsters for next season as the Americans announced that they’ve signed 21-year-old forward Riley Fiddler-Schultz to a two-year contract and 21-year-old defenseman Nicolas Savoie to a one-year deal. Fiddler-Schultz just finished up a five-year career with WHL Calgary and notched 31 goals and 44 assists in 64 games this past season. Savoie, meanwhile, spent his five-year junior career with Quebec of the QMJHL, picking up 48 points in 65 games in 2022-23 while helping lead the Remparts to the Memorial Cup.
Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights
The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. We wrap up our series with a look at what the Golden Knights have left to do.
When team owner Bill Foley talked about winning the Stanley Cup in six years after their expansion team started, the idea seemed far-fetched. But in the end, that’s exactly how it played out as they took out Winnipeg, Edmonton, Dallas, and Florida to take home the title. GM Kelly McCrimmon is now tasked with trying to keep as much of his Cup-winning core intact as possible. He has already made some moves that were on the original version of this checklist but here’s what’s left for them to work on.
Goalie Moves
It’s interesting that Adin Hill’s reported two-year extension that was reportedly agreed to over the weekend has yet to be registered with the league compared to someone like Ivan Barbashev, whose deal was agreed to and registered on Wednesday. Speculatively, this could be related to tagging space since LTIR players (like Robin Lehner) count against that limit. Because we’re not in the new league year yet, the tagging rate is 10% above the $82.5MM cap. In the offseason, you can go 10% above the new cap level, or $83.5MM while offseason LTIR is also an option if needed.
Not registering the deal now gives them some extra flexibility in the short term as they have $1.1MM less in spending allowance before Saturday to fit Hill’s contract into. This likely played a role in Barbashev’s deal getting announced only after they moved Reilly Smith. This isn’t anything to be concerned about if you’re a Vegas fan as this is just a bit of CBA minutia but they will have to get Hill’s contract finalized in the coming days.
Speaking of goalies, they need to make a determination about Lehner’s future. With Hill’s pending new contract, it appears that they don’t think Lehner will be able to return next season. If that happens, they can put him on LTIR as they did this past season. But it’s also possible that they want to clear that contract off the books as they did with Shea Weber’s deal at the trade deadline. Deciding if it’s worth parting with an asset to free up the contract slot will be a small item on McCrimmon’s list.
They will also need to decide if they want to carry a veteran third-stringer behind a tandem of Hill and Logan Thompson which is still relatively inexperienced all things considered. They’ve had one in place the last two years with Laurent Brossoit and Michael Hutchinson but among the three other netminders signed for next season, none have any NHL experience while pending RFA Jiri Patera has just two appearances. This is another small item on the list but with free agency almost here, it’s a decision that will need to be made quickly.
Work On Marchessault Extension
It’s safe to say that Jonathan Marchessault has worked out well as their expansion pick from Florida back in 2017. The 32-year-old is their franchise leader in goals, assists, and points and is coming off a playoff performance that saw him lead the league in goals with 13, helping him take home his first Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. That’s certainly a nice ending to his campaign and will give him some extra leverage as he becomes eligible to sign a contract extension as of Saturday.
Marchessault signed a six-year, $30MM deal just months into his tenure with Vegas and it has held up well through the first five seasons. However, it’s safe to say that it’s going to take a higher AAV for him to put pen to paper on an extension, especially this far out from his free agent summer. Yes, the Upper Limit of the cap is expected to jump but he turns 33 in December and wingers don’t typically show offensive improvement at that time.
Marchessault has reached the 30-goal and 60-point mark just once in the last five years and as he gets older, he should move more into a middle-six role. Is that a lineup spot that they should be committing a pricey long-term contract to? On the other hand, he’s one of the original ‘misfits’ and while the Golden Knights have made some moves that could be described as callous along the way, it’s possible that they could allow sentimentality to come into play with Marchessault. At this point, an AAV of around $6MM on a medium-term extension might be needed. Expect discussions on a new deal to happen at some point this summer.
Try To Create More Cap Space
At the moment, Vegas has around $7.6MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly. That amount includes them using Lehner’s full LTIR space and does not count Hill’s expected contract, one that is expected to carry an AAV of around $4.9MM. Basically, they’re going to have around $2.7MM at their disposal and that’s with a couple of forward spots to try to fill. It’s a manageable situation but is one that would leave them in a spot where they’d have limited flexibility for any in-season activity. While they’re more than used to being in that situation, it’s still one that they might want to avoid.
To do that, they’re probably going to look at dealing from their defensive depth. Veteran Alec Martinez has a $5.25MM AAV and one year remaining on his deal. The 35-year-old is still a serviceable piece but is better served as being more of a depth defender at this stage of his career. In this market, clearing the full contract would be difficult but even if they’re able to move him with some retention, it’d help to free up some wiggle room.
Failing that, they can look to their depth players. Ben Hutton has an AAV that’s just $25K above the league minimum that could be appealing to a team looking for cheap depth. Meanwhile, prospect Brayden Pachal is now waiver-eligible and if the Golden Knights envision him not breaking camp with them, trying to move him now for a waiver-exempt asset would open up a bit more flexibility. Doing something like this isn’t necessarily a must but a bit more wiggle room on the cap wouldn’t hurt.
Decide Howden’s Future
Vegas has a couple of RFA forwards to re-sign, center Brett Howden and winger Pavel Dorofeyev. Dorofeyev’s contract should be somewhat straightforward as the youngster only has 20 NHL games under his belt so he’ll be signing for close to the league minimum of $775K. But Howden’s will be a little trickier to navigate.
The 25-year-old is owed a $1.5MM qualifying offer by tomorrow’s 4 PM CT deadline. However, the offer also carries salary arbitration eligibility which is something they might want to avoid. Howden’s coming off a quiet year offensively with just 13 points in 54 games but with 279 career regular season appearances under his belt, he has enough of a track record to land a raise in a hearing. Obviously, Vegas can’t afford to give him too much of one.
Do they manage to get something done in the next 24 hours that takes away the arbitration risk? If not, are they comfortable tendering the qualifier? Howden is coming off a nice playoff run and is someone they will want to keep around but there comes a point where he’s going to cost too much for the role he fills. He’s not all that far from that spot so getting something done soon would certainly be desirable.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Atlantic Notes: DeBrincat, Maple Leafs, Hornqvist
While many expected that the Senators would try to move pending RFA winger Alex DeBrincat at the draft with the hopes of getting a first-round pick, that clearly didn’t come to fruition with nary a single trade involving a first-round selection occurring. However, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Ottawa is trying to get someone that can help the team win now instead of a futures-based package. The 25-year-old had 27 goals and 66 points in his first season with the Sens in 2022-23 and was owed a qualifying offer of $9MM. However, the team got around that by filing for club-elected arbitration earlier this month, allowing them to offer just 85% of that amount ($7.65MM). DeBrincat is not believed to have asked for a trade from Ottawa but has indicated that he is not interested in signing a long-term agreement to remain with the team.
More from the Atlantic Division:
- The Maple Leafs don’t plan to execute a buyout before the window closes on Friday, GM Brad Treliving told reporters including Sportsnet’s Luke Fox. Veteran goaltender Matt Murray has long been a speculative candidate to be bought out, a move that would free up $4MM in flexibility to work this summer but they won’t go that route. At least, they won’t for now. Treliving noted that there is a second window to be made available as long as they have an arbitration filing. Toronto has three arbitration-eligible players in goalie Ilya Samsonov plus defensemen Victor Mete and Mac Hollowell with the former being the most likely to file. If that happens, Treliving and the Maple Leafs could re-assess Murray’s situation later in the summer.
- It appears that winger Patric Hornqvist has indeed played his final NHL game as Panthers GM Bill Zito told George Richards of Florida Hockey Now that the veteran has now moved his family back to Sweden. The 36-year-old was shut down in early December after taking an elbow to the head but remained with the team during their run to the Stanley Cup Final. Zito indicated that there are discussions underway about Hornqvist remaining with the team in some capacity.
Henrik Borgstrom Signs In Sweden
June 26: Finally official, Borgstrom has signed a two-year deal with HV71, meaning he’ll be an unrestricted free agent by the time any NHL team has another shot at him.
May 3: After seeing action in just one NHL game this season, it seemed like there was a good chance that Capitals center Henrik Borgstrom would be looking to go elsewhere for 2023-24. Rather than wait to see if he’d be tendered by Washington, it appears that Borgstrom has found his next team as SportExpressen’s Johan Svensson reports that the middleman is expected to play for HV71 in Sweden next season.
The 25-year-old returned to North America in 2021-22, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. However, after struggling in 52 contests with them, the Blackhawks opted to buy out the final year of that deal, making him an unrestricted free agent. Borgstrom quickly signed with the Capitals, hoping to push for a spot at the bottom of their roster.
That didn’t exactly happen. Instead, Borgstrom cleared waivers before the start of the season and spent almost the entire year with AHL Hershey. He wasn’t overly productive with them either, picking up eight goals and 13 assists in 55 games, hardly the type of impact he was hoping to have. That resulted in him getting just a single recall at the end of the season, playing in Washington’s penultimate contest where he was limited to just over eight minutes of playing time.
Borgstrom, who has 111 career NHL appearances under his belt, is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer and Washington could have his rights for two more years if they qualify him. At this point, the term of the agreement will likely dictate what the Capitals do. If it’s a multi-year pact, he’ll be an NHL free agent by the time it expires, meaning there’s little point in qualifying him. But if it’s a one-year agreement, it would make some sense to tender that offer just in case he has a breakout year that would get him back on the NHL radar.
Five Key Stories: 6/19/23 – 6/25/23
With the draft and free agency almost upon us, activity around the league has started to pick up with an expectation of plenty more to come, including resolutions to trades that are reportedly in the works. Here’s a rundown of the top stories from the past seven days.
Middlemen Off The Market: This isn’t the greatest free agent crop for centers and the crop got considerably thinner over the past week with four players coming off the market. First, Montreal re-signed Sean Monahan to a one-year contract that’s worth $2MM if he meets his games played bonus, giving the veteran a chance to prove he has recovered from his injuries this past season. Then it was Buffalo’s turn as they inked long-time Sabre Zemgus Girgensons to a one-year, $2.5MM deal to keep him as a fixture in their bottom six. Erik Haula made it known that he wanted to remain with New Jersey and he got his wish, signing a three-year contract that carries a $3.15MM AAV. Then, following reports that contract talks were stalling out, Carolina and Jordan Staal were able to reach a new four-year contract, one that carries an AAV of $2.9MM and has a full no-move clause for the first three seasons.
Coyotes Make Moves: In recent years, the Coyotes have willingly taken on unwanted contracts in exchange for future assets with those players either staying on the roster or landing on injured reserve. Now, the team is changing course as they’ve parted ways with a pair of those unwanted deals, buying out defenseman Patrik Nemeth and winger Zack Kassian. The moves result in $1.833MM in dead cap for next season and $1.983MM in 2024-25. Then, Arizona opted to trade away one of their surplus selections, sending Montreal’s 2024 second-round pick to Los Angeles to acquire defenseman Sean Durzi. The 24-year-old had 38 points in his sophomore year for the Kings and could be part of the back end for the Coyotes for several years. After that, they re-upped goaltender Connor Ingram to a new three-year deal with a cap hit of $1.95MM. In 17 appearances in 2023, the 26-year-old put up a .922 SV% and if he can stay even close to that level, it could wind up being a club-friendly deal.
Johansen To Colorado: The Avalanche decided to get a head start on their center shopping as they acquired Ryan Johansen from Nashville in exchange for the rights to pending UFA forward Alex Galchenyuk. As part of the move, the Predators are retaining half of Johansen’s $8MM for the final two seasons of his contract. The 30-year-old is coming off a down season that saw him put up just 28 points in 55 games before missing the last couple of months after undergoing emergency leg surgery. However, he’s just a year removed from a 63-point campaign so Colorado is hoping that a change of scenery could give him a spark. In a move that basically amounts to acquiring him for future considerations, it’s certainly a worthwhile chance to take for them while Nashville settles for simply clearing half of his contract off their books.
Hall Of Famers: Away from the rink, the next group of Hockey Hall of Famers was announced. A total of seven people will enter the Hall next season, including builders Ken Hitchcock and Pierre Lacroix (posthumously), goaltenders Mike Vernon, Tom Barrasso, and Henrik Lundqvist, plus forwards Pierre Turgeon and Caroline Ouellette. Of the seven inductees, only Lundqvist was named in his first year of eligibility. Meanwhile, it’s the second Hall of Fame honor of the year for Ouellette who was also named to the IIHF Hall of Fame earlier this year.
Departures In Calgary? Last week, there was a belief that defenseman Noah Hanifin would be on the way out in Calgary. He might not be the only one. First, reports emerged that center Elias Lindholm hasn’t accepted a long-term extension offer from the Flames while fellow middleman Mikael Backlund may also be leaning toward leaving the team. Then, another report suggested that Tyler Toffoli isn’t likely to re-sign either. All four players are eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer but if they’re not willing to stick around, GM Craig Conroy could be busy in the coming days and weeks by sending those players to teams that they might be willing to ink new deals with.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers
The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Florida.
What an interesting year it was for the Panthers. After winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the team moved two core pieces in Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk, a swap that many felt would see them take a small step back to take a bigger step forward a little later on. It played out that way early as they were out of the playoffs for long portions of the season. However, they got into the final Wild Card spot and beat Boston, Toronto, and Carolina to come out of the East. Now, GM Bill Zito has more cap flexibility than he had last summer to try to add to his roster but there are some question marks on how much he’ll be able to use which factors into in their checklist below.
Add Defensive Help
When fully healthy, Florida’s defense corps wasn’t the deepest to begin with. Now, they’re set to possibly lose Radko Gudas and Marc Staal to free agency while Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, their top two blueliners, played through serious injuries in the playoffs and might not be ready to start next season. They already could have used a top-four blueliner. Now, it’s more or less a necessity.
It’s also worth noting that the blueliner with the longest contract on their current roster is Ekblad. His deal has just two years remaining. Other than Josh Mahura, a depth defender, all of their current blueliners will be UFA-eligible when their existing contracts expire. That’s a lot of potential turnover in a short period of time.
With that in mind, while some have wondered if Zito might be interested in short-term options due to the injuries, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least look to the higher end of the free agent market where the top options will get longer-term contracts. Yes, those deals tend to be too long and a little too expensive but this is a franchise that doesn’t exactly have a lot of tradeable assets right now after going all-in in 2021-22. A move like that would give them a short-term lift and ensure they’ll have at least one capable veteran in the fold for the long haul.
As things stand, Florida has roughly $10MM in cap room at their disposal, per CapFriendly. They have to sign at least two blueliners (probably three) and a couple of forwards with that money but if the depth options are closer to the minimum, there’s enough room for an impact addition. Yes, there could be LTIR money available in the short term but that money can’t really be spent externally as the Panthers would have to be cap-compliant once the injured players are ready to return. Instead, any ‘savings’ there would go toward carrying a full roster at the start of the season.
Extension Talks
July 1st is the day that players entering the final year of their respective contracts are eligible to sign contract extensions. Florida has several key regulars in that situation. On the back end, Montour and Gustav Forsling are both set to hit the final year of their very team-friendly deals. Up front, Sam Reinhart and Anthony Duclair are in the same spot.
Montour’s case is going to be a particularly fascinating one to follow. For years, he had shown promise at times but hadn’t been able to consistently produce and as a result, he remained in more of a limited role. This past season, that all changed. Montour’s production exploded, going from a decent 37 points a year ago to a whopping 73. He barely cracked the top 40 for scoring by a defenseman in 2021-22 and was fifth in 2022-23. He’s on a bargain contract at $3.5MM and if they want to extend him now, it might take twice as much if not more to lock up the 29-year-old. The shoulder injury could give Zito some pause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to get something done this summer.
As for Forsling, he has certainly been one of the best waiver claims in recent memory, going from a Carolina castaway to a 23-minute per-game defender. The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22 and put up very similar numbers this past season, showing that it wasn’t just a fluke. He is now logging heavy minutes shorthanded, making him an all-around defender. With his age and recent production, he, too, could more than double his current AAV of just under $2.7MM.
Up front, Reinhart’s second bridge contract has worked out well for both sides. He has taken his production to a new level in Florida, even after taking a bit of a step back this season. The 27-year-old has also shown that he can play down the middle which makes him much more valuable around the league with top-six centers being difficult to come by. His current AAV is $6.5MM and it would likely take at least a couple million more than that (putting him a little below Matthew Tkachuk on the salary scale) to get him to commit to an early extension.
Then there’s Duclair. The 27-year-old missed most of this past season as he worked his way back from a torn Achilles’ tendon and, unsurprisingly, he was a bit quiet when he returned before putting together a decent playoff showing with 11 points in 20 games. He’s only a year removed from a breakout 31-goal campaign which should factor into negotiations as well. Duclair intends to represent himself again in those discussions and with the long layoff, it’s reasonable to think they might agree to defer talks until later in the season to see how he fares after a full summer of recovery.
Not all of these players are going to sign extensions over the summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito get one or two of these locked up over the coming months.
Get Help For The Penalty Kill
The Panthers were one of the top teams at five-on-five this past season which is typically a good sign of how strong a team is. However, the fact that they barely picked up the final Wild Card spot is in large part due to the fact that their penalty kill struggled considerably with a success rate of just under 76%, a few points below the league average. In the playoffs, that number dipped even further to just 70.4%. That’s an area that could certainly stand to be improved.
If Florida goes and gets an impact defenseman, that should help but adding some defensive acumen to their final couple of forwards would also help. Eric Staal (a pending UFA) logged heavy minutes on the penalty kill this past season, a role he hadn’t typically played in his prime. Eetu Luostarinen isn’t a premier defensive forward either; those two led all Florida forwards in shorthanded ATOI. Filling out the depth chart with some shutdown options might take away a bit offensively but if it helps them kill enough penalties to balance out, it’ll be worth doing.
Depth Decisions
Alex Lyon more than served his purpose as a capable third-string goaltender who stepped in when Spencer Knight departed for the Player Assistance Program and even took over as the starter with Sergei Bobrovsky struggling at the time. He may have done well enough to get a shot as a backup somewhere so this is a spot that will need to be filled. A veteran depth goalie isn’t usually an important offseason add but with Bobrovsky’s inconsistency and Knight’s relative inexperience, determining and landing the top option on that market takes a higher level of importance.
Meanwhile, a decision needs to be made soon on the fate of center Colin White. The 26-year-old had an okay year in a very limited role but still provided some value on a contract that was just $100K above the league minimum after being bought out by Ottawa. Still not old enough to reach unrestricted free agency, Florida could tender him a qualifying offer to keep his rights. However, doing so would give him arbitration eligibility and bring his previous production (including a 41-point year in 2018-19) into the picture. That’s not ideal for the Panthers so they need to decide if they want to try to re-sign him before Friday’s tender deadline or if they want to cut bait and perhaps add a more defensive-oriented depth player into the mix.
These are two roles that can be filled quickly in free agency within the first couple of hours so Zito will need to have his plan in place to make sure he lands his targets (or gets White on another bargain contract).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Blackhawks, Playoffs, Bobrovsky, Goalies, Panthers, Expansion
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago and their goaltending, way-too-early predictions for new playoff teams next season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.
Unclemike1526: The Blackhawks have Mrazek and Soderblom-Stauber for this year. We’re stuck with Mrazek. So Commesso, and maybe Basse in the system. I think the Hawks should draft Hrabal, however they need to. I saw one mock draft saying the Hawks would draft Trey Augustine in the second round. What is your opinion of Hrabal and Augustine? I think the Hawks stay put at 1 and 19. Then they take their high second-round pick and package it with a player or more picks to get back into the late 1st round and take Hrabal or if he’s gone, Gauthier. I think that would be a great scenario for the Hawks. I think you can never have enough good goalies. Thoughts?
I like Michael Hrabal but it feels to me like his stock is soaring a bit too high right now. Yes, he’s big and big is good for a goalie but I’m not convinced he’s a 1A starter down the road. He’s raw and rangy and those players don’t always pan out. Size allows him to get to more shots but he still needs to be technically sound and by most accounts, that’s something that still needs a lot of work. If he’s a platoon player, he can still have a long and productive career but is a platoon goalie worth a first-rounder? I don’t think it is. I wouldn’t be shocked if someone picks him in the first round but I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea. In your scenario, I like the idea of trading up for Ethan Gauthier more than I do for Hrabal. If Hrabal is there at 35, grab him then.
As for Augustine, I think he might be the better goalie of the two but while Hrabal’s size has sent his stock soaring, Augustine’s size has lowered him in the rankings. He’s more of a technically-sound netminder and in a structured system, I think he can do quite well, at least as a platoon option. Chicago is anything but structured right now but any goalie being taken is going to be four years or more away from being NHL-ready. I’m betting that by then, the Blackhawks’ defense will be much better than it is now.
As for the philosophical idea of never having enough good goalies, I tend to agree if a team is trending toward a platoon as many are. The value in that approach is saving money relative to having a true starter and a backup but it also means that you need to have a few netminders in the system. As soon as one of those platoon pieces gets too expensive, the next in-house option needs to be ready for this to work as planned.
Generally speaking, there are only around 20 goalies that are picked in a typical draft year. With more teams going to a platoon system, that number should be higher. We’ll find out soon enough if that trend continues or if teams get more aggressive in getting netminders into their prospect pools.
random comment guy: I would like to piggyback off this, with the Hawks needing to reach the cap floor (roughly $16M or so), what teams will be calling to get high-salary players off their roster? I assume the Hawks will want 1-2 year contracts as it will fit their timeline. Also, do you feel that the return should be more draft picks or prospects/players?
There are a few groups of teams in the category of needing to move money. There are those that have a high-priced contract for an underachieving player that are just looking to get out of the deal. Think the Islanders and Josh Bailey. There are those that wouldn’t mind offloading an LTIR-bound contract such as the Maple Leafs and Jake Muzzin. Then there are teams that don’t want to move a player but whose cap situations are going to force their hand. Boston and to a lesser extent Edmonton are among those. Vancouver is sort of here as well although they don’t have to make a move, they just might prefer to.
I agree that Chicago – or any team acting as a clearinghouse – will be looking for short-term contracts. Why take on a long-term agreement that could be problematic down the road if it can be avoided? Sure, there could be more futures coming their way as compensation but there’s a limit to how much a team is going to pay to offload an unwanted contract and it probably won’t be enough to justify a long-term acquisition.
I’d put the Blackhawks in a spot where they should be targeting prospects. They’re not ready to push for a playoff spot yet, even with Connor Bedard giving them a big boost offensively. They’ve just gutted too much of the core to turn it around in a year. But getting more draft picks that are years away from playing doesn’t make sense either. The sweet spot for them should be drafted players between 19 and 22 (give or take a year) that are on the cusp of being ready. Those will be the core pieces that align with Bedard’s timeline and part of the core that eventually helps lead them back into contention. A year or two from now when it’s time to flip the switch, then go after the win-now players who will then be augmented by this prospect core.
M34: Waaaay too early predictions. Two or three teams from each conference’s playoff picture, that won’t make the playoffs next year. And who takes their spots?
The next couple of weeks could make me look silly on this but here goes nothing.
East: Even with Alex DeBrincat likely to be moved, the Senators can still do some damage next season. A full season from Josh Norris will help. I think they’re going to get a goalie. And with the cap space they free up from a DeBrincat swap, they’re likely to add a piece or two of note in free agency or by taking on a player in a trade. I also expect the Penguins to find a way to get back in. They have some cap flexibility this summer and while they have a few holes to fill with that money, I think they’ll be able to add a piece or two to help get them over the hump for a Wild Card position. It wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo get in there as well as their roster continues to improve and likely has a move or two to be made in the coming weeks.
In terms of who misses out, the Panthers come to mind. I had this same concern with Boston last summer (and boy, was I wrong there) but I figured their injuries would cause them to struggle out of the gate and even though they’d be a playoff-caliber team, they’d have too much of a hill to climb by the time the team got healthy. I could see this happening with Florida. I’ll say the Islanders also just miss out. Their desired style of play is good for keeping things close but they still lack an above-average attack and their back end could be weakened if Scott Mayfield can’t be retained. They’ll be competitive but just miss out. If Boston really has to blow things up, it wouldn’t shock me if they just missed out. It also wouldn’t shock me if Tampa Bay, bereft of even more depth next season, gets bit by the injury bug and with a weaker roster, ultimately comes up short.
West: I have one team that I have a bit of confidence in that could get in and that’s Vancouver. Thatcher Demko should be better. Their offense is already strong. I don’t think they’re going to leave their back end as is. On paper, that roster should be a playoff-caliber group. Calgary is going to be forced to sell, Nashville might be bottoming out, Arizona and Chicago should be better but not playoff-ready and Anaheim and San Jose aren’t close. I guess St. Louis is my second team by default since I have to pick at least two but let’s just say I’m not typing this with much conviction.
Winnipeg is the logical team to be replaced as it sure feels like they, too, are heading for at least some sort of step back. It’d be tough to move that much of their core and improve. And if I have to pick a team for St. Louis to knock out, I guess it’d be Seattle. There’s a fine line to navigate for teams built like they are. When it works, they can be a handful but if a couple of players take a step back offensively, that could be the difference, especially with their question marks between the pipes.
PyramidHeadcrab: So what’s the deal with Sergei Bobrovsky? Every player has ups and downs, but this guy seems to swing wildly from Vezina caliber to $10MM paperweight. Has any other goalie in NHL history been so wildly inconsistent? And what might you surmise the reasoning behind it is? Injury? Personality? Poor coaching?
There’s a 33-point gap between Bobrovsky’s best year and worst in terms of save percentage. That’s definitely on the high side. My first instinct when I saw the comparables question was Ilya Bryzgalov but as erratic as he was, the gap in the prime of his career wasn’t anywhere close. Tim Thomas also has a 33-point difference but I wouldn’t put him on the same scale of wild inconsistency. Mike Smith went from .899 one year to .930 and then within a few years, was down to .904. Objectively speaking, there’s probably someone whose year-to-year volatility is comparable to Bobrovsky but one doesn’t come to mind right away. And even so, Bobrovsky’s game-to-game and even period-to-period variances still could make him unique.
He has had enough goalie coaches over his career that it’s probably not that. I don’t think it’s injury-related either. I think it’s a confidence thing. Some players rattle easy and he might be one of them; a bad goal bugs him and eventually it nosedives into another bad one, then another, etc. On the flip side, a few big saves beget a few more big saves and then he gets on a roll. Goaltending is just a weird position and there isn’t necessarily a lot of predictability involved other than to say there shouldn’t be much in the way of predictability. This JFresh article from 2020 (Bobrovsky’s first season with Florida) better describes the volatility of the position. Bobrovsky manages to take that to a whole other level.
The Duke: Crystal Ball – Goaltenders Edition: Where do Gibson, Saros, UPL, and Hill play next season – and how successful will each be?
John Gibson – I guess the ball doesn’t get to say Anaheim anymore, does it? Let’s go with Pittsburgh with the Ducks retaining a small percentage of the deal to get the net cost closer to $5.5MM. Playing behind a better team with playoff aspirations, he adds 13 points to his save percentage of .899, giving the Penguins a net gain on their team save percentage and that’s enough of a difference to get them a few more wins in the standings.
Juuse Saros – Nashville is moving a lot of players but this is one of those cases where they’re not going to get a max return if they move him now. Not with Connor Hellebuyck out there; there are only a handful of teams that will be willing to pay up for a true starter. He might not finish the season there but he should start it there. With a weaker group in front of him, he loses a few points off the .919 SV% he put up last season. That’s still well above average but it probably won’t be enough to get a bunch of wins unless they wind up buying big after selling big.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – There’s a definite case to be made for Buffalo to add a goaltender and if they do, Luukkonen is probably going elsewhere. But the ball sees them investigating the market and then deciding to go with Luukkonen and Levi to start, believing that if they need to make an in-season move to get a stabilizer between the pipes, they’ll be able to do so. After putting up an .891 SV% this past season, Luukkonen winds up closer to the NHL average (which should be somewhere in the .905 range).
Adin Hill – Staying in Vegas seems like the most probable scenario, especially since it appears that he’s nearing an extension. With a heavier workload than he’s used to having during the regular season, Hill’s SV% dips a few points from .915 to .911.
Red Wings: Panthers should have some cap space this summer. If they add one piece, should they target Bertuzzi or Orlov?
West Notes: Hanifin, Goligoski, Dubois
While Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin hasn’t given the team a list of teams he’d be willing to sign an extension with to help facilitate a trade, he has given them one clue at least. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman notes in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that the blueliner has made it known that he would like to return to the United States. Hanifin is set to enter the final year of his contract with a $4.95MM AAV that is well below market value. As a result, there should be strong interest in the 26-year-old who, on top of logging over 20 minutes a night, has recorded 86 points over the last two seasons. With the draft getting underway on Wednesday, Hanifin’s name is likely to come up in further trade speculation over the coming days.
Elsewhere around the Western Conference:
- This past season was a tough one for Wild blueliner Alex Goligoski who wound up being a frequent healthy scratch. However, Michael Russo and Joe Smith of The Athletic report (subscription link) that the 37-year-old has decided that he wants to return next season and since he has a full no-move clause, it’s safe to say he’ll now be sticking around. Goligoski has one year left on his contract with a $2MM AAV and with him not getting moved now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see if they can create a market for Jonathon Merrill who has two years left at a $1.2MM AAV to try to create a little extra cap flexibility.
- There could be some more moves coming soon, as the Winnipeg Jets are “gaining traction” on a Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, per The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta. There isn’t a clear front-runner for his services at this point, but the Los Angeles Kings and Montreal Canadiens have seen their names mentioned the most of any in recent trade rumors. The influx of pre-draft trades has been started with Kevin Hayes, Ryan Johansen, and Sean Durzi all on the move today.
Blues Re-Sign Scott Perunovich
The Blues have taken care of one of their pending restricted free agents, announcing the re-signing of defenseman Scott Perunovich to a one-year contract. It’s a one-way deal worth $775K, the NHL minimum for next season.
The 24-year-old was expected to push for a full-time spot with St. Louis in 2022-23. However, he suffered a fractured shoulder in the preseason, causing him to miss six months. Upon his return, Perunovich was assigned to AHL Springfield where he was quite productive, notching 20 points in just 22 games. That earned him a spot with Team USA at the World Championship where he once again put up the points, collecting eight in ten contests.
Perunovich, a 2018 second-round pick, has just 19 NHL regular season games under his belt, all coming in 2021-22. That, coupled with a lengthy injury history, didn’t give him much leverage to work with in contract discussions this summer, even with arbitration eligibility. Instead, the two sides have found a reasonable compromise, one that sees Perunovich take less than his qualifying offer to keep the cap hit low while getting a fully-guaranteed salary. He will once again be a restricted free agent next summer with arbitration rights.
Perunovich is still waiver-exempt next season until he plays in 37 games. As a result, it’s possible that he remains with the Thunderbirds in 2023-24 but if St. Louis is able to move one of their veteran blueliners in the coming days or weeks, he’ll be in line to push for a full-time spot with the Blues while giving their back end a boost offensively.