Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some early-season surprises, what’s next for the Sabres, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
Schwa: What do you think the biggest surprises have been over the first week or two? Perhaps a positive and a negative.
On the positive side, it has to be Detroit. Yes, they had a rough opener at the hands of Montreal but since then, they’ve beat Toronto twice plus Florida and Tampa Bay in their division plus Edmonton today. That’s five wins against legitimate playoff teams which is particularly notable. Along the way, Cam Talbot is off to a great start in goal, providing a level of goaltending that they added John Gibson to give them. Meanwhile, they’re integrating three rookies into regular roles, including Emmett Finnie, a player taken in the seventh round two years ago. Few would have expected him to be on the team a month ago let alone the top line. There’s a lot to like so far for the Red Wings.
On the not-so-good side, I’m a bit concerned about how the Kings have started. I wasn’t down on their summer as much as some were as while there were some veteran overpayments, their depth was still pretty good. Now, they lost five of six to start and have had a hard time scoring and keeping pucks out of the net. That’s not a good combination. Now, they’re without Anze Kopitar for a while which isn’t going to help things. They look more vulnerable than I thought they’d be. Dustin Wolf’s start in Calgary isn’t particularly confidence-inspiring either. He was a big reason they were more competitive than expected last season; if he can’t perform at a similar level this year, they’re in a lot of trouble.
random comment guy: I was reading on here that the Sharks would like to obtain younger D-men. The Hawks have a fair amount of younger D-men. Do you see any type of trade in the future and who would be involved?
Chicago feels like a good fit if San Jose decides it wants to add some other young defensemen to the mix in the hopes of seeing if one or two pan out. The idea is basically to take a few dart throws and see what happens but when they’re not going to be going anywhere this season in the standings, I like the idea in principle.
As you correctly noted, the Blackhawks have a surplus of blueliners. Of the six NHL-contracted blueliners they have in the minors, three have seen action at the top level and not just a token game; they’ve all played at least 27 NHL contests. Kevin Korchinski is the most prominent of the trio but I don’t get the sense that Chicago is willing to sell low on him. Instead, they’d rather have him play big minutes in Rockford and then have him full-time on the NHL roster next season when he’s waiver-eligible. I don’t think they want to move Ethan Del Mastro just yet either.
The other one is Nolan Allan and I could see Chicago GM Kyle Davidson look to salvage something. While he played 43 NHL games last season, he struggled in a limited role and has likely slipped behind those two on the prospect depth chart, not to mention Alex Vlasic and Wyatt Kaiser being ahead of him in Chicago as well. In a best-case scenario then, he might be their eighth defender next season. That’s a terrible spot for a prospect to be in and their value typically drops quickly after that. If San Jose wants to get a look at him, it won’t be overly cheap (I could see the cost being a second-round pick or equivalent prospect value) but if they feel he has some upside and staying power, it’d be a move worth attempting.
gowings2008: Any rumors of Erik Karlsson to the Wings? Or are the summer rumors dead?
Speaking of those Red Wings… There aren’t any credible rumors linking Karlsson to Detroit at the moment or anywhere really. We’re still in the early goings of the season when teams are still trying to establish what they have, what they need, and what they could possibly get rid of. While Pittsburgh is in a spot where they know that moving Karlsson is likely the desired long-term outcome, a $10MM cap charge is still something they’re going to have to navigate.
For Detroit, they still need to evaluate their young back end. Can they rely on Axel Sandin Pellikka all season? Can they count on more from Albert Johansson? Could Jacob Bernard-Docker be a regular after bouncing in and out of the lineup in Ottawa? The answers to those questions will help determine if they want to pursue him, as will their position in the standings.
If the Red Wings find themselves in the mix in the second half, I could see them taking a run at this, assuming Karlsson is amenable to going there. Slotting him on the second pairing behind Moritz Seider could allow Sandin Pellikka to play on the third pair and get eased in a bit more, or even return to the minors if they want to maximize his playing time. Notably, they also have the cap space to take on the full freight of the contract, something that can’t be said for a lot of teams. But for now, they need to see what they have and see if this hot start can be sustained before looking into a big splash on the trade front.
Black Ace57: How many times will history be allowed to repeat itself with the Sabres with no real change? I mean more than trading the next Cozens. I know it’s early, but it feels different this year with the losing already becoming an issue.
It feels like there’s a little more urgency this season as at some point, the status quo can’t just keep happening. At this point, a decision needs to be made about GM Kevyn Adams. Considering the Dylan Cozens trade looks like a tough loss already, is he the one you’re going to trust to make the type of shakeup move(s) needed? That could entail yet another coaching change, a big core trade, or starting over (I’ll look at each of those options shortly). If Adams gets the vote of confidence, let him take the big swing or two.
But if not, they do have a ‘kick the can down the road’ card to play in Jarmo Kekalainen. The former Columbus GM is now a senior advisor and if it’s decided a change needs to be made, put him in as a caretaker, assess, make some minor moves where needed, and then determine in the spring if he’s the guy to go with moving forward or conduct a more thorough search. That’s the safe route to play. Frankly, it’s the route I think they’ll take if they decide to let Adams go. It’s probably not the best route to take but I think they’re going to be risk-averse at this point, for better or worse (and likely the latter).
Jaysen: Though I am not a Sabres fan, over the years I did enjoy watching some of their players. However, I am just baffled by how bad they are doing year after year, and it’s not like they don’t have solid, young players.
So, my question to you is: you are the owner. It’s another bad start to the season. What option would you choose, and would you proceed?
1) Let’s fire the coach and the GM, like we seem to be doing every two years.
2) Shocking trade to shake up the room and the players.
3) You decide to embark on a true, tear-down, management-to-players rebuild, a la Montreal Canadiens.
I’d be curious to know which option you would choose, of course, but also if you wouldn’t mind giving me your opinion on the other two options.
I’m going to answer this a bit of a different way than you intended but I will touch base on all three options after.
If I were the owner, I’d be making considerable efforts to invest in organizational infrastructure. While a lot of teams’ spending in these areas isn’t known, Buffalo is believed to be particularly thrifty on the scouting front and put a more restrictive budget a couple of years ago with AHL Rochester. Their front office is much leaner than most as well. Buffalo is in a division with some top-spending teams. Trying to pinch pennies is not a recipe for success and I think that’s part of the problem.
One element that they need is a dedicated President of Hockey Operations. Someone who knows what a good organizational structure and budget entails and can begin to implement that immediately upon hire. Once that hire has assessed the state of the franchise, they pick which is the best course out of those three options to take, and that’s the one I go with.
Now, since you asked me to comment on the three options, I’ll weigh in quickly on each of them independently.
1) I never like speculating about firing people but Adams’ five-year tenure as GM has not been particularly confidence-inspiring. There’s a direction in place – they’re trying to win – but they’re not very successful at it. The lack of proper coaching search before bringing Lindy Ruff back was a huge red flag for me as well. I have a hard time seeing Adams turning things around significantly at this point so my leaning would be looking into a change but again, at this point of the year, that’s moving Kekalainen (whose track record isn’t the best either) into the interim role. Let whoever takes over as GM make the decision on Ruff’s fate.
2) They may have to do that if they can’t reach an extension with Alex Tuch. They simply can’t let him walk in free agency with no return. If an extension can’t be reached, they have no choice to move him and that type of move in March will be for futures. I also think something will eventually happen on the back end, possibly with Bowen Byram if it’s believed that he won’t sign a long-term deal when he becomes extension-eligible next summer. They may not want to go that route but circumstances may force their hand anyway. They could be an interesting team to watch on the trade front this season if they’re out of contention after the Olympic break.
3) Buffalo has a 14-season playoff drought and hasn’t won a series in 18 years. Boy, another extended rebuild would be a tough sell. I’m starting to come around on it possibly being the best option although I still have more faith in most with this core group. On paper, it’s not half bad and good enough to at least be competitive. But if their hands get forced with Tuch and Byram (and perhaps others thereafter), they may get dragged in this direction willingly or otherwise.
Rollie’s Mustache: Who will be the first player to sign a contract with an AAV of $20 million?
I had this question a little over a year ago back when the projected increases to the salary cap weren’t known. I was being on the safer side with the projections but back then, I had the cap around $106.7MM in 2027-28 when it looks like it’ll be $113.5MM or so. My thought was that the Upper Limit needed to get to $120MM for a $20MM cap charge to be viable as the cap percentage would be around the 15% or so mark which is where some of the elite players land. My planning had that happening in 2029-30, ruling out some obvious options. Now, that could plausibly happen in 2028-29, opening up some options.
If Cale Makar decides he wants to test the open market in 2027, I could see him at least flirting with that number. Having said that, I expect him to re-sign with Colorado. Auston Matthews is UFA-eligible the following year and went short-term on purpose on his last deal to set him up for a big pay day. If he’s looking to maximize his earnings, I think there are teams that would go that high for a top-line, high-scoring center. That said, I think he eventually re-signs with Toronto.
If I have to pick a player, it’d be one of them. I mused a year ago about Connor Bedard possibly getting there if he didn’t sign a max-term deal coming off his entry-level contract but that’s forecasting him becoming the franchise number one center he’s supposed to be, a level he has a long way to go to reach still. If you look at the youngster class in recent years, their UFA years don’t start until the early 2030s and their extra-pricey deals wouldn’t come until closer to the end of that decade. Kirill Kaprizov really moved the needle with a $17MM per season contract but I think we’re still a long way from getting to $20MM.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.
Quinn Hughes too if he balks at staying in Vancouver and management is forced to pony up