The Risk And Reward Of Signing Evgeny Kuznetsov

In each NHL offseason, certain players hit the free agent market, sparking debate about the risks and rewards of signing them. The potential rewards often outweigh the risks, and these players usually find opportunities in the NHL, but some do fall by the wayside. This summer, a few names fit the bill, including former Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is reportedly looking to return to an NHL lineup after playing in the KHL last year.

Kuznetsov can best be described as a reclamation project at this point in his career. The 33-year-old is highly talented and has posted strong results in the NHL throughout his career; however, he has often been inconsistent, which is precisely why he finds himself in the current position he is in a few weeks before NHL training camps are set to open. As for the risks and rewards of signing Kuznetsov, they look like this.

We’ll start with the reward side of the argument. Kuznetsov has an elite skill set; he has terrific hands (evidenced by his slow-motion shootout goals), is an excellent playmaker, and could pass with the best of them during his prime. These skills alone would make almost any player desirable, and they are the reason that Kuznetsov stayed in the NHL for as long as he did despite the warts in his game. Kuznetsov had 25 assists in 39 KHL games last season, which demonstrates that he still possesses a playmaking vision and could be a valuable part of a team’s top-nine forward group if placed in the right environment.

The next positive aspect of signing Kuznetsov is that he has been excellent in the Stanley Cup playoffs throughout his career. He was a key part of Washington’s 2018 Stanley Cup Championship, leading the playoffs in points that season. Even his most recent NHL postseason saw him perform well, with four goals and two assists in 10 games, which ultimately was his last appearance in an NHL lineup. Kuznetsov has shown in the past that he can elevate his game when the stakes are highest, which could be a factor teams consider when deciding whether to sign him.

Then there’s the cost, which will be almost nothing. In real dollar terms, the NHL league minimum of $775K is significant; however, that’s the bare minimum Kuznetsov can earn in the NHL and likely what he will get when he finally signs (if he secures a one-way NHL deal). Teams will be interested in a player they can acquire without giving up an asset (other than cap space), and even if things go south for Kuznetsov, he could easily be waived and sent to the minors with his entire cap hit buried or perhaps agree to a mutual termination if things don’t work out. Either way, it would cost almost nothing to sign him and could reward a team with a valuable player at a low cost.

Lastly, on the reward side, there is the potential that a change of scenery move could unlock. Many players in NHL history have struggled with one team, then moved to a new market and rediscovered their game. This can happen for many reasons, but ultimately, one of the main reasons these moves are successful is if the player is motivated to revive their career. For Kuznetsov, the team that signs him will likely be giving him his last NHL shot, which means the stakes are high for him, and he should have plenty of motivation to give his best effort. It also means that whatever team signs Kuznetsov, they could see a significant return on a player who is a relatively small gamble.

Let’s examine the risks now associated with signing a player like Kuznetsov. Firstly, his production has fallen sharply in recent seasons, dropping to a near career-low 24 points in 63 games during the 2023-24 season. It wasn’t just the offense that dried up; it was Kuznetsov’s overall impact in his final two NHL seasons. Kuznetsov was never considered an analytical darling, but he became one of the most negative impact play-drivers in the NHL during those last two seasons. This decline in offensive output highlighted Kuznetsov’s overall game, which was never exceptional but was mainly hidden by his scoring.

Next up on the risk side is Kuznetsov’s tendency to be streaky. Some might call it apathy or being disengaged, but the fact is that any NHL team that hopes to win a Stanley Cup doesn’t want to bring in a passenger who plays when he feels like it. That’s not to say that is what Kuznetsov will do, but that is a reputation he does have, and teams will be looking for players who buy in and display a strong work ethic.

The reality of Kuznetsov’s age also comes into play, as there’s no way to sugarcoat the truth about hockey players on the wrong side of 30. Skills tend to decline, especially conditioning and speed, which usually drop faster than a player’s ability to control the puck. The concerning part for Kuznetsov is that managing the puck was one of the few things he did well in 2023-24, but with his lack of speed, his CF% took a nosedive, dropping to just 47% in that season.

Finally, there is the locker room fit. Teams are always concerned about bringing in a personality that doesn’t align with the team’s culture, and Kuznetsov could be a potential mismatch. Creating additional off-ice distractions is never ideal for NHL teams, which is why players like Phil Kessel and Calvin de Haan often see their final runs through free agency end in disappointment. An off-ice distraction will generally be tolerated if a player is performing at a high level. Still, as soon as their results slip, off-ice issues tend to be addressed more seriously.

In the end, whichever NHL team signs Kuznetsov (if any do) will get a player on a cheap league minimum contract, who has some potential to make an offensive impact and could produce some decent point totals. Alternatively, they might get a player who is inconsistent, unmotivated, and taking up a roster spot from someone else. Either way, Kuznetsov will be an intriguing player to watch in the near future.

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