Will The Red Wings Finally Return To The Playoffs?

The Red Wings haven’t made the playoffs since the 2015-16 season and are hoping to break their nine-year drought this year. They came close to snapping the streak in 2023-24, finishing fifth in the Atlantic Division with 91 points, but took a step back last season, falling to sixth in the division and 86 points. This summer, they identified goaltending as an area of concern and quickly traded for veteran netminder John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks.

Detroit also made a series of depth signings that they hope will close the gap between missing the postseason and making it. It’s hard to say whether general manager Steve Yzerman did enough to get the Red Wings over the hump, but it’s fair to say he was conservative in his approach, opting to steer clear of the heavy bidding in free agency for top-end talent. Whether that was by design or a case of circumstance is unknown, but Yzerman wasn’t able to land any big names, despite a great deal of cap space available.

Yzerman’s big move was acquiring Gibson, and he will likely team him up with fellow veteran Cam Talbot to give Detroit what they hope will be reliable goaltending. The Red Wings haven’t had a top-tier starter in quite some time, and they probably won’t rely solely on Gibson, as he’s more of a 1B option at this stage of his career. Outside of last season, he hasn’t been great since before the pandemic in 2020. Gibson’s struggles in Anaheim were well documented, and he remained with the Ducks through a significant rebuild despite their attempts to move him.

Gibson had trade protection, but his declining play over the past few seasons naturally reduced his trade value. Last season, Gibson finally posted a positive goal saved above expected at 15.3 (as per MoneyPuck). However, from 2019-24, he tallied a cumulative -60.8 goals saved above expected, which hurt his value on the trade market. If Detroit gets the 2019 to 2024 version of Gibson, it could be very problematic and might even jeopardize their season unless Talbot performs significantly better than expected. But if Gibson proves last year wasn’t a fluke and he’s recaptured his earlier form, he could be the key to helping Detroit close the gap.

From a salary cap perspective, the Red Wings facilitated the Gibson move by trading Petr Mrázek as part of the deal with Anaheim, as well as dealing Vladimir Tarasenko to the Wild in a separate agreement for future considerations. Tarasenko wasn’t a great fit in Detroit and doesn’t have good foot speed at this stage of his career. He scored just 11 goals and 22 assists last season, so his offensive output shouldn’t be too hard to replace.

Detroit hopes Mason Appleton can fill the offensive gap left by Tarasenko at a lower cost. The Red Wings signed the 29-year-old forward to a two-year, $5.8MM contract, expecting him to fit into the third line and add depth scoring. Appleton is only a year removed from a 36-point season with the Winnipeg Jets, and if he can return to that level, he will be a bargain. However, if he replicates last year’s form, at a $2.9MM cap hit, it might be hard to justify the price.

Appleton controls the puck frequently and is good at handling challenging defensive situations, but he doesn’t do a lot with the puck when he has it, so expecting him to replace Tarasenko might be a tall order. He scored 10 goals and 12 assists in 71 games last season, numbers that align more with his career averages, making those a more likely estimate of his production.

Up front, Detroit also added James van Riemsdyk and John Leonard. Leonard hasn’t played much in the NHL since a 44-game stint with San Jose during the 2020-21 season and probably won’t be a significant factor for Detroit this season. Conversely, van Riemsdyk has offered offensive value at a low cost over the past two seasons and should deliver a good return on his one-year $1MM contract. His 34 even-strength points last season are promising, and he remains a solid net-front presence despite being 36 years old. If van Riemsdyk can produce another 30-point season, he will effectively replace Tarasenko’s point production at less than 25% of the salary.

The remaining additions Detroit made this summer focused on the back end, as the Red Wings acquired a pair of former Ottawa Senators in Jacob Bernard-Docker and Travis Hamonic, along with Ian Mitchell. Bernard-Docker was a first-round pick by the Sens in 2018 but hasn’t been able to establish himself beyond a seventh defenseman. He will have every chance to do so in Detroit, as the Red Wings have a significant gap on the right side of their defense behind Moritz Seider, and Bernard-Docker could compete for one of those roles with Justin Holl, Albert Johansson, and Hamonic. Johansson, being a left-shot defenseman, could make a transition to the right side an issue, but given Detroit’s lack of depth, it might be their best option.

Speaking of Hamonic, his signing last week was somewhat unexpected, considering he isn’t particularly effective and seemed headed for a PTO this offseason. As PHR’s Josh Erickson noted at the time of the signing, “Ottawa was outscored 77-44 and out-chanced 787-635 with Hamonic on the ice at 5-on-5 in the last two years.” These figures raise concerns about whether Hamonic is to be part of Detroit’s NHL lineup, which could indicate that they have not effectively bolstered their defensive depth.

In terms of roster losses, aside from Tarasenko, the Red Wings didn’t lose much, as Alex Lyon, Jeff Petry, Craig Smith, and Tyler Motte left town. The team can easily replace these departing veterans with plenty of young talent and new faces ready to take over the roles those players held. While this summer can hardly be called a failure, it wasn’t exactly a homerun either. Detroit improved its goaltending, but Gibson isn’t a guarantee, and the defense in front of him isn’t much better than last year’s. Yzerman is counting on significant growth from young players this season, but that might not be enough to push Detroit to the next level.

Red Wings fans were probably disappointed by the lack of a high-profile signing this summer, but Detroit still has nearly $12MM in cap space (as per PuckPedia) and can make a move if it chooses to. All that to say, Yzerman not managing to lure one of the top free agents to Detroit will be seen as a failure if the team misses the playoffs again, and it might even cost him his job if necessary steps aren’t taken in the right direction.

Photo by Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports.