Why Was The Summer Frenzy Such A Flop?

Many NHL fans entered this summer expecting a flurry of transactions as teams anticipated a rise in the NHL salary cap after years of it remaining flat. On the surface, that expectation made sense; aggressive NHL general managers would finally have wiggle room to make bold moves after the pent-up frustration of having to pinch pennies to stay under the threshold.

However, that frenzy never materialized, and this summer was mostly a flop. Most moves were completed by July 1, and the summer blockbusters never materialized. So, where did it all go wrong, and what happened to the supposed bold moves that were expected this summer?

Many folks had expected the additional cap space to lead to trades, as aggressive teams would aim to use that room to strengthen their rosters. However, the extra space actually had the opposite effect, since most teams finally had enough cap room and didn’t need to spend the summer offloading bad contracts. This had been a common theme in previous years, as teams often had to dump one or two poor contracts to stay under the salary cap. This year, only a few cap dump trades have occurred, with defensemen Matt Dumba and Connor Clifton being traded separately to the Penguins.

The mere mention of the Penguins brings up another factor in the summer of silence: most teams entered this summer looking to improve, with the glaring exception being the Penguins, who were the only team firmly in seller territory. Pittsburgh came into the summer with three major trade chips—Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Erik Karlsson. So far, they haven’t been able to move any of them, despite many NHL teams holding salary cap space and being eager to get better.

This restraint is unusual in NHL circles, as general managers often rush to overpay for veterans. This summer, they haven’t been knocking on the Penguins’ door to acquire their available veterans. That could be due to Penguins GM Kyle Dubas holding firm on a high asking price, but with Pittsburgh’s apparent desire to rebuild, one would think there’s a middle ground that could facilitate a trade.

Rust and Rakell are both on bargain contracts with three years remaining, so it’s hard to believe they can’t be moved for close to what’s being asked. Yet, to this point, nothing has happened on the trade front. In fact, only a handful of trades have been completed since July 1, and with training camp just a few weeks away, it will be interesting to see if the pace picks up.

The trading market was clearly tight, and it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why, but there could be a few factors at play besides high asking prices. Teams with cap space, such as San Jose, Chicago, and Utah, clearly weren’t eager to spend big on win-now players and opted to look at free agency for minor improvements or, in the case of Utah, trade for younger pieces.

Meanwhile, teams aiming to make big moves couldn’t because they lacked the assets to trade. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Colorado Avalanche, and Tampa Bay Lightning would have likely loved to get better, but they all lacked first-round picks from previous big trades and just didn’t have the assets to make moves.

Now, speaking of those teams, and you could also include the Dallas Stars here, these contending teams were already close to being “capped out” even with the salary cap increase. Dallas had to make the aforementioned Dumba trade to stay compliant after re-signing their free agents, while Colorado had to send Miles Wood and Charlie Coyle to Columbus. Those teams were eventually able to create salary cap room, but even then, they used it to re-sign their own RFAs and UFAs, as well as find depth on the free agent market, rather than making trades.

Another factor was that no one was surprised by the salary cap increase, as teams had known for a while that it was going to rise after being flat for so long following the COVID-19 pandemic. This led teams and players to assume that the salary cap would go up, which is why players like Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and eventually Leon Draisaitl managed to set new records as the NHL’s highest-paid players. Instead of having a bonus room this summer, teams like the Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers had already used the extra space to cover raises they had already given their players. Signing superstars to groundbreaking contracts is not new, but it explains why the summer frenzy never really took off.

Handing out those contracts to stars kept players with their current teams and also contributed to the thin free agent market this summer. Besides Mitch Marner and Nikolaj Ehlers, most stars who were potential UFAs stayed with their former clubs rather than testing the market. This meant that teams with cap space didn’t spend large just for the sake of spending; instead, they chose to hold onto their cap space for future moves or to be aggressive in 2026 free agency when bigger names might be available.

Finally, some teams may have learned from their mistakes during the flat salary cap era. There’s an old saying that NHL general managers tend to make more errors on July 1st than at any other time of the year, which might have prompted GMs to think more carefully about their moves to avoid repeating those mistakes.

Dubas in Pittsburgh serves as a prime example, as his decisions on July 1st, 2023, have essentially saddled the Penguins with multiple bad contracts (Tristan Jarry, Ryan Graves, and Noel Acciari) for years to come. The Ottawa Senators are under new management, but even they handed out an ill-advised two-year $8MM deal to David Perron last year that they might want to redo. It appears that at least for this summer, GMs chose to be cautious with their new cap space, and it will be interesting to see if they maintain that careful approach into the NHL Trade Deadline—especially if the race for playoff spots remains tight and many teams stay in the hunt.

To summarize, there wasn’t just one reason why this summer was a flop for fans hoping for a frenzy. A weak UFA class, cautious management, and money being spent on retaining players ultimately derailed those plans. The NHL Entry Draft was busy, as were moves around July 1st, but since then, it’s been a quiet summer. The coming weeks might not bring much more news until teams start playing, injuries happen, or players don’t meet expectations, which could put teams in a tough spot, especially if they fall short of expectations.

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