Trade rumors have followed Toronto Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner throughout his entire career. Buzz of a bad fit started early, then developed into talks of poor relationships with his teammates, and have since turned into talks of a trade to an endless list of teams. Through it all, Marner has stood as nothing but consistent on Toronto’s top line. He’s scored above a 1.20 point-per-game pace every year since 2021, making him Toronto’s second-highest scorer on a per-game basis behind his superstar centerman Auston Matthews.
But Marner’s eight-figure contract is set to expire at the end of the season, and the most recent rumors claim he leveraged his full no-movement clause to block a move to the Carolina Hurricanes at the Trade Deadline. That movement has put Marner, and his future with the Maple Leafs, back at the focus of many NHL circles.
Marner is putting together a career year on the precipice of a brand new contract. He has 21 goals and 79 points in 62 games – an 82-game pace of 27 goals and 104 points. That would break Marner into the century scoring club for the first time in his career, topping his previous career-high of 99 points in 80 games of the 2022-23 campaign. He was narrowly close to setting the mark when he scored 85 points in 69 games last season – a full-year pace of 101 points – but injuries held Marner from reaching the top echelon of NHL scorers.
In fact, that’s been a frequent storyline throughout Marner’s career. He’s played in at least 70 games just five different times in his eight-year career – not yet including the 81 games he’s on pace for this year. Three of those full campaigns came in Marner’s first three years in the NHL. He’s a slight forward, standing at six-feet tall and 180-pounds – making him far more susceptible to the heavy hits of top NHL defenders than a player like Matthews. But while his injuries have been frequent, they haven’t yet proven too detrimental. Marner has still eclipsed 60 points in every single season of his career – a stat line that’s studded with 50 points in 57 career playoff games.
Marner certainly gets support from star company in Toronto, but his pedigree has
only grown in recent years. He’s established himself as one of the NHL’s niftiest playmakers, capable of driving downhill with tempo and making slick moves through defenders to find teammates or take advantage of an open net. Those attributes are at the top of some teams priority list as they approach the off-season looking to add a star score. Marner’s pros could be enough to entice a cap-rich team like the Buffalo Sabres or Columbus Blue Jackets to go out of their way with a high bid offer to ensure they land Marner’s services.
Any team looking to add Marner will have to keep his role on the wing at front of mind. That could pose a challenge for teams like Columbus who have players like Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson growing into superiority on their flanks. On the other hand, Marner’s s ability to support the middle lane could make a great fit for teams like Buffalo or the Calgary Flames who may have to account for their own top centers preferences to play out wide.
The free agent market has been set early by brand new Dallas Stars winger Mikko Rantanen, who signed an eight year extension with a yearly cap hit of $12MM. Marner was rumored to be offered in a swap for Rantanen at the deadline. He would reason to rival close to the dollar amount that Rantanen received. But on the open market and with Marner’s standing as a potentially catapulting piece for lineups on the fringe, he could see his yearly cap hit rise in north of $13MM after a bidding war. That number will be hard to bear for many teams around the league. But for the lucky few who could entertain it, Marner could offer a rare chance at landing a 100-point scorer on the open market.
Any speculation of Marner’s off-season availability is still just that. His refusal to move to Carolina at the deadline stands as a testament to his belonging on Toronto’s top line. While the team may need to mend relationships with their star right-winger after reportedly offering him up for trade, Marner has already assured that he’d rather play with the Leafs than go somewhere else midseason. Should that feeling change, Marner will enter the open market as the undeniable top name, now that Rantanen has signed a long-term deal.
That standing will bring with it plenty of attention, but only one team can win any Marner sweepstakes that forms. Who do you think it should be? Vote below:
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Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.
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Minnesota signs him now that those two ridiculous contracts are basically off the books next season. Plenty of cash and a definite need for Minny.
Great call.
I’m not a Marner hater but whoever signs him is going to cripple their franchise unless it’s like Chicago or San Jose who have years before others get too expensive. Carolina, Toronto, NYR etc. would need to win a cup in the next two years to have any hope at a championship if they went 7 years for 12 million plus.
12 million per year is going to cripple franchises? that’s likely going to be well under market value as the cap goes up.
Unless he soils the bed or is otherwise the fall guy for another playoff failure, no way he leaves Toronto.
Between the cap going up and Tavares’ price going down (or possibly going away) they can keep him, so they will.
But if he does, Chicago?
Sure JT hit is going down but Knies is a beautiful unicorn who is in line for a long term contract this summer between 6-8 per year
def closer to 8
Random…
I love those black and red Peca era Sabres jerseys.
Except for maybe our Gin and Juice Ranger ripoff jerseys, they might be the best in the league.
Peca/Hasek Sabres jerseys are peak, I agree.
But we’re eventually gonna get the Buffleslug retro jerseys.
I like the idea of Marner on the Sabres. That’s the sort of player they can actually build around.
Realistically, I think Columbus is the best fit. He essentially steps into Gaudreau’s boots and walks onto a team that is not only still rebuilding, but has a ton of surprise talent on the team in players like Voronkov and Marchenko.
If Columbus signs Marner and recruits a true starting goalie, watch them start reliably winning playoff rounds.
Flames
Utah Yeti making room for him
I could see that.
Hurricanes. They’d be a good fit for his game and have a ton of money. I don’t think rejected a trade here mid season because he doesn’t like Raleigh…more like he doesn’t want to leave Toronto
Feels like the Canes are gonna offer a huge contract to Marner or Ehlers.
Kings. Loved playing for DJ Smith and Jim Hiller and the Kings desperately need offensive help without sacrificing their defensive game. Marner would check those boxes. Hey, wishful thinking!
Mitch Marner is staying in Toronto when it’s all set & done. He’ll take a bit less than his market value in order to stay put if necessary. The only way Marner leaves Toronto is if they just choke badly in the playoffs (which history says is quite possible with them) & Marner plays poorly (his track record is a bit sketchy in the playoffs). If that happens, then the situation of Marner leaving becomes more prevalent this offseason.
Doubt the fit is there but a 1st line of Bratt, Hughes and Marner would be crazy. Then Hischier, Meier on the second line. Would have to buy out or trade Palat… dreams are free
I suspect he’ll stay in Toronto for a number between Nylander and Matthews.
But I think San Jose, Buffalo, Carolina, and Chicago make tons of sense.
Carolina def will take a run and Chicago might. no way he goes to San Jose. they aren’t close and he wants to compete for a cup
San Jose doesn’t make sense because Marner will be out of his prime by the time the rebuild is complete. They’d be paying a premium for the guy to spend his best years on a terrible team.
San Jose, and to an extent Chicago, is a money play. If he wants to win, it’s obviously not the best locale.
Eklund, Smith, Celebrini will all be in their mid to late 20s with a 7 year deal. It’s not like the team is full of contributing 18-year-olds.. much of their core is already on the team and in their 20’s and I think he’s absolutely perfect for that group.
I think Mitch winds up a NYR.