The Lightning have re-acquired defenseman Ryan McDonagh from the Predators via trade, the team announced Tuesday. Tampa is picking up the Oilers’ 2024 fourth-round pick in the deal and sending their 2025 second-round pick and 2024 seventh-round pick to Nashville in return.
It’s incredibly unusual timing for a swap, especially one of this significance. Both the Bolts’ and Preds’ seasons ended a few weeks ago in first-round playoff exits.
There was no previous indication McDonagh was on the trade block, but he’ll now finish out the last two seasons of his seven-year, $6.75MM AAV contract back in Tampa, where he signed it in 2018. The Predators are not retaining salary in the deal – an important factor for the Lightning as they attempt to keep captain Steven Stamkos, a pending unrestricted free agent, from going to market.
McDonagh, who was part of the Lightning’s three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances from 2020 to 2022, spent the last two seasons in Nashville after the Lightning couldn’t afford to keep his contract on the books. They traded him to the Preds in July 2022 for minor-league pieces Grant Mismash and Philippe Myers. Mismash never suited up for Tampa and is now playing in Norway, while Myers has logged 16 appearances for the Bolts in the last two seasons.
It’s hard to argue with the asset management here from Predators general manager Barry Trotz. McDonagh gave them two seasons of solid top-four minutes, averaging 21:40 per game over 145 contests. He isn’t the player he once was offensively, but he still put up a respectable 52 points in a Nashville uniform and a combined +31 rating, which leads Nashville skaters since 2022-23. Trotz also nets a second-round pick for his troubles.
McDonagh’s contract has a full no-trade clause, which he waived to return to Tampa. The Lightning have struggled defensively without him the past two seasons, going from a consistent top-10 team in goals against to 14th in 2022-23 and 22nd this season. They also haven’t managed to win a playoff series since trading him away, losing to the Panthers in the first round this season and the Maple Leafs last year. While trading him away did allow GM Julien BriseBois to sign the younger Erik Černák, Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev to long-term extensions, it didn’t result in a continuation of their success from the beginning of the decade.
The veteran defenseman turns 35 next month and is entering his 15th NHL season. Formerly the captain of the Rangers, the Lightning initially acquired McDonagh, along with J.T. Miller, in a blockbuster trade at the 2018 deadline. McDonagh played parts of five seasons in Tampa before ending up in Nashville, putting up 99 points and a +74 rating in 267 games in a Lightning uniform while averaging 21:51 per game.
However, re-acquiring McDonagh doesn’t mean the Lightning are in a more advantageous cap situation than when they traded him away. They’re down to just over $5MM in projected cap space next season with a roster size of 18, per CapFriendly, likely not enough to re-sign Stamkos without a corresponding move.
Evolving Hockey projects Stamkos could earn close to $8.5MM annually on a short-term deal on the open market, and while he’s likely willing to take a hometown discount to stay in Tampa, a contract worth less than half his market value would be extreme. They also have a couple of other depth forward spots to fill to ice a full roster, and none of their minor-league forwards are particularly strong candidates to crack next fall’s opening night roster.
After trading away their 2025 second-rounder in this deal, the Lightning now don’t have a pick in the first two rounds until 2026. That’s a tough sell for an aging core, considering they have a bottom-five prospect pool in the league, as analyzed by The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler.
Meanwhile, Trotz frees up some significant cap space to allow Nashville to be slightly more aggressive in free agency. The buyout penalty for Matt Duchene increases by $3MM on July 1 to a $5.55MM price tag next season, eating into their offseason flexibility. After moving McDonagh, CapFriendly now projects the Preds with $26MM in space next season with a roster size of 15. That’s more than enough to go big-game hunting for a younger, more cost-controlled replacement for McDonagh on the open market this summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
It’ll be good to see him back, but more work should’ve been done to keep him in the first place.
I think it’s fair to say if either the Lightning or Golden Knights have to trade a player for cap reasons it means there’s no loophole out there to be able to keep them.
@Black Ace57 — Imagine creating a “loophole” for that, and eliminating the cap bypass junk of “misusing” LTIR. Yep, that was a “Good one, Randy” moment. ;)
So now Trotz is going in the rebuild direction?
This team bewilders me. :/
This seems good for everyone involved. 2nd rounder is a nice consolation prize for a 35 yr old defenseman. TB needs to solidify it’s defense and McD goes where he wants.
From a neutral observer, I would be elated at this trade from a Preds perspective. McDonagh is still great but he’s also 35… go get someone younger to replace him and use the savings to build out depth elsewhere. They already had a pretty good cap situation compared to other playoff teams this year… it’s now a spectacular cap situation
Don’t forget that Duchene’s buyout takes up over 6M for the next few seasons.
You’d have to think McDonough would fetch a better return at the trade deadline than this. But even so, why not make this move last off-season?
This was my immediate thought. I still don’t love the Predators’ chances at true competitiveness – not just making the playoffs but winning a round or two or three! But McDonagh is on the decline. TBL’s second round pick next year might be in the top 50 overall. Move Saros and now you’ve really got some cap space to play with, in a state without income tax. I’ve always thought that they needed to tank in order to bring in some top-flight talent, but maybe there’s another route.
Maybe prepping for a Marner trade (rumors already out there with Saros involved). If Marner were to decide to move on, Nashville is a great spot/city to land longterm.
@Gbear — Kind of reminds you of a scene from “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles” where the guys are driving the wrong way on the highway, doesn’t it?
@Gbear — The somewhat good news is that Duchene’s buyout is ~$5.56MM (2024-2025), ~$6.56MM (2025-2026), then down to ~$1.56MM for 2026-2029. But, they have Turris’ $2MM for four more years, RJ’s $4MM retained salary next year, and for dessert, Eckholm’s retained $250K for two more years. That’s the cost of 2 or 3 good players. And, I wonder if NSH might have had discussions with him last off-season, but they couldn’t find the right deal at that time.
@Mac – Yeah, while the Preds do have some Cap room, they need to sign 3 Dmen and at least 3 forwards (and a goalie) with that cap space.
I think it’s more likely that more kids will be on the roster next season and not some big trade/free agent splash.
they were rumored to trade Carrier at the deadline, maybe Carrier is getting a new deal in Nashville this summer
I was thinking the same thing, maybe O’Reilly could convince him
TB only has $5M in cap space now! What big piece is on the move!?!?!?!?!
Sergachev, Cerelli, ????
Likely Cerelli?
As an outsider. What other player do you need? You have 18 of 20 players signed. 6 D under contract, 2 goalie and 10 forwards all signed. You don’t need Duclair, Motte, Watson, DeHaan, Dumba and Fleury. So the only real player left to sign is Stamkos and I’m sure he’ll take a 1 year deal for 1mil. So that leaves 4mil for 1 player :)
It won’t be neither. It will be Erik Cernak as that will relieve $5.2 million AAV in cap space. They’ll also move Conor Sheary’s $2 million AAV & potentially Nick Perbix’s $1.12 million AAV.
No not Cirelli. It will be Erik Cernak as that will relieve $5.2 million AAV in cap space. They’ll also move Conor Sheary’s $2 million AAV & potentially Nick Perbix’s $1.12 million AAV.
He has a full NTC starting soon……….June 15 or July 1????
Better hurry! But yeah, there are cheaper options to trade for……or sign a RD in FA?
Cernak’s NTC goes into effect July 1st. Plenty of time to move him. Sheary’s NTC ends June 15th.
Bringing back McDonagh was more about terms & experience. TBL according to Pierre LaBrun must have known top-end D UFAs would want more terms than they wanted to give. McDonagh has only 2 years left.
TBL will still probably look to add a RD or two in FA. Someone like CAR’s RD Jalen Chatfield for example would come in at a low price.
Stamkos definitely wont do a 1 year $1M, idk what you’re smoking
Where does that leave Stamkos??
Aging core?!? What is with the media & this “aging core” nonsense. Point, Cirelli, Hagel, Sergachev, Paul, Vasilevskiy, Raddysh & such are all well under 30. Kucherov is 30 but his style of play & such, he’ll be a top-tier elite player for several more years easily. Stamkos & Hedman are still going at a high rate & don’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. The Lightning are ranked 14th oldest in the league. They are not old really.
Also, Scott Wheeler doesn’t know crap. The Lightning are one of if not the best at developing talent & history has proven that again & again. Talents like Ethan Gauthier & Isaac Howard are top six forwards easily.
It’s an aging core. There wasn’t a player on that team under age 25 who played any sort of significant minutes. They aren’t Penguins old, but if they keep mortgaging draft picks they will get there soon enough.
Sure, some of the old folks are still elite players. But at that age, performance usually drops off a cliff, and Father Time is undefeated. We can think of any number of recent players who were fine at 30 and retired by 33. Both Stamkos and Hedman started their pro careers AFTER PK Subban did, for instance. Kucherov MAY be an elite player for several more years, but all it takes is the wrong back injury or losing a step or two of skating speed.
Emil Lilliberg is well under 25 & played significant minutes. Sorry but the whole “under 25” thing is an overrated concept in a number of ways but that’s another story. The under 30 concept has more value because they’re still young but have experience. Point (just turned 28), Cirelli (26), Hagel (25), Paul (29), Vasilevskiy (29), Sergachev (25), Cernak (26), Jeannot (26), Eyssimont (27), & etc. Yeah, they are really old (eyes roll). Also, they have guys like Ethan Gauthier (19) & Isaac Howard (20) both projected to be top-six forwards coming up. Ethan Gauthier could be on the main roster this season.
Yeah performance can drop a little here or there over time but elite players tend to last far longer than regular players do. Sidney Crosby is 36 & still elite. Hedman & Stamkos are 3 & 2 years younger respectively than Crosby. Hedman had a far better season this year than he did the year prior. You also forget, players are much wiser on their health & how to prolong their careers as medical science has players playing far longer & staying highly productive longer.
Subban isn’t in the same class as Stamkos & Hedman. Terrible comparison.
Your argument for Kucherov could be made for any player at any age. Not exactly a strong argument by any means. Also, Kucherov doesn’t need skating speed to be his elite self. Kucherov is at his most dangerous standing still & just roaming the ice as he picks his spots. Kucherov is unlike any other of the elite players in the league.
ummm who? Ethan Gauthier and Isaac Howard are both still kinda no name prospects, idk how you can say that theyre “easily” top 6 forwards
@Nha Stamkos started before Subban and Hedman the same year as PK.
On a side note, Grant Mismash is a great hockey name.
wonder if this seals the resigning of Carrier
The Ryan Ufko era has begun, lol!
Smart move by Nashville – and with McDonagh holding the hammer. I’ve been impressed with Trotz’s agility to change horses and still improve his team. Yes those cap retainers are heavy but he’s not just rearranging the deck chairs… Can’t say the same for TB, which is within a year or two of having to face reality. The window’s still open, but that cap crunch and ticking clock leaves little margin. Nashville meanwhile can still go big or medium game hunting. Canucks’ Hronek could be available (1 year before UFA) and a flip of Nyquvist & Fabbro makes sense…
How was a player trade permitted at this time in the season?