Trade Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

With the All-Star break in the rearview, the trade deadline looms large and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The more things change, the more they stay the same for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite parting ways with Kyle Dubas and Jason Spezza this summer, bringing in multiple new faces including Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg, and receiving modest efforts from multiple goalies – the Leafs once again find themselves in a familiar spot, poised to add at the Trade Deadline to try and bring an oomph behind their star power. But unlike previous years, Toronto is getting hot at the right time, winning 13 of their last 16 games and outscoring opponents 66-to-43. Every piece of the lineup seems to be clicking, with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner paving history, Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll one-upping each other in net, and depth options like Calle Jarnkrok making big impacts coming off injured reserve. The Leafs could have enough chemistry to forgo any Deadline action, but they’ll be a favorite for top names if they do get involved.

Record

35-17-8, 3rd in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Buyers on a budget

Deadline Cap Space

$144,166 of cap space on deadline day, 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2024: TOR 1st, NYI 3rd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, CGY 5th, VAN 5th, TOR 7th, OTT 7th
2025: TOR 5th, CHI 5th, TOR 6th, TOR 7th

Trade Chips

The Leafs are undeniably positioned as buyers ahead of the Deadline, and their trade chips match that. Leading the list is young winger Nicholas Robertson, who Toronto recently sent to the AHL to make room for Jarnkrok’s return. This season has marked Robertson’s first year in a full-time NHL role but he doesn’t have too much to show for it – managing a modest eight goals and 19 points in 41 games. Much of his ice time has come on the team’s third line, playing alongside either Jarnkrok or John Tavares at center. Robertson has yet to find his groove, despite strong linemates, but Toronto will need him to carry value – as the team has very little draft capital to work with. He joins a long list of promising, but so far unsuccessful, 22-year-olds on the trade market – including Philip Broberg, Arthur Kaliyev, and Kaapo Kakko – and like them, Robertson likely doesn’t yield a major return outright. But he’ll be a focal piece of any package the Leafs put together – with the team hoping his remaining potential is enough to swing a big trade.

If Robertson isn’t enough, it’s likely that Toronto turns towards their strong AHL pipeline before they sell off more draft capital. The Toronto Marlies are having a slow season overall – with a 23-18-11 record ranking them fifth in the AHL’s North Division – but they boast a long list of young talents that could draw interest from around the league. Headlining the list is 6’7” goaltender Dennis Hildeby, who’s managed 13 wins and a .912 save percentage in 28 games this season. It’s Hildeby’s first season in North American pros, though he played his first full pro season last year, when he recorded 11 wins and a .918 in 21 games with the SHL’s Färjestad BK. Hildeby has been a routine call-up this season, but has yet to make his NHL debut. He has loads of untapped potential and, with Woll returning strong from injury and Matt Murray progressing after double hip surgery, teams may be able to convince Toronto to, “sell high”, on the 22-year-old netminder.

The Marlies also boasts swiss-army-knife Alex Steeves, hard-nosed centerman Nicholas Abruzzese, or former seventh-round pick Ryan Tverberg. Steeves leads the bunch in scoring, with 43 points in 46 games, though Tverberg is the youngest of the trio at 22, while Steeves and Abruzzese are 24. The Leafs could even sell off top defensive prospect Topi Niemelä, who leads all Marlies defenders in scoring but hasn’t yet made his NHL debut.

While it’s never ideal to sell off talents before they get a shot at the NHL, it could be all Toronto can part with – with their NHL lineup looking fairly consistent. Backup goaltenders Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones may end up expendable for the right price, though the Leafs would need to make sure they’ve found a confident starter before dealing away any goalies, including Hildeby. They similarly can’t spare much depth at forward, though the recent hot flashes of Bobby McMann or Pontus Holmberg could entice teams that need a little more certainty headed into the postseason.

Team Needs

1) An Answer On Defense – The Maple Leafs’ questions on defense are just getting tougher as time goes on, with veteran T.J. Brodie beginning to slow down and injuries catching the likes of Ilya Lyubushkin, Jake McCabe, and Timothy Liljegren at one point or another. While the Leafs have managed well through the challenges, they’ve had to rely on the likes of Maxime Lajoie and Marshall Rifai to get there. It’s clear that they’re missing key pieces on the blue line, and rumors have confirmed that they’re looking into the market’s top defenders. This includes top Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin, who seems near certain to move this Deadline. Hanifin has scored 11 goals – a career-high – and 35 points through 60 games this season. He’s on pace to narrowly fall short of his career-high in points as well, currently scoring at a 47-point pace through 82 games. Toronto is one of many teams involved in Hanifin trade talks – alongside the Arizona Coyotes, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers. But the Leafs may be in the best position to acquire the pending free agent, boasting a first-round pick unlike Florida, and a better short-term outlook than Arizona and Tampa. If the Leafs miss out on Hanifin, their best alternatives will likely be Philadelphia’s Sean Walker or Ottawa’s Jakob Chychrun. Chychrun was notably in trade talks at last year’s Deadline, moving from the Arizona Coyotes to the Ottawa Senators. He’s since managed 11 goals and 38 points in 71 games with the Senators, though their current situation makes him expendable to playoff teams looking for a defensive boost. Chychrun brings strong puck-moving skills, but may not have the defensive punch Toronto could use. That could be the factor that shifts them towards Walker, who’s offered a much more well-rounded skillset this season, while still scoring 22 points in 62 games.

2) Depth For The Playoffs – The Leafs have kicked off their Deadline early, sending a third-and-sixth-round draft pick away in exchange for Ilya Lyubushkin. While that acquisition has been debated, it leans into exactly what Toronto needs – more depth for the playoffs. They’ve boasted a strong minor-league system for many years but continue to fall flat in the postseason, thanks to an overreliance on star names or poorly timed injuries. While acquiring a big-name goaltender like Juuse Saros or Jacob Markstrom – or reeling in a star forward like Pavel Buchnevich or Jake Guentzel – would be certainly exciting, it’d undercut the fantastic talents that already lead Toronto’s lineup. They’d be better off focusing on less discussed Deadline names, like Jordan Eberle or Jack Roslovic – two players that could still manage big impacts in quaint roles. Nick Seeler and Andrew Peeke offer similar value on defense. These options would come at a significantly cheaper price, while still helping the Leafs build a lineup that can reliably drive them deep into the postseason. Toronto is having plenty of success with their current lineup, but any additions should be focused on patching the defense or solidifying their supporting cast – acquisitions that their limited assets will likely limit them to.