Archives for April 2022

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award.  Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals.  That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters.  I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season.  Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him.  It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level.  He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix.  If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference.  They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so.  For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.  That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing.  How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat?  They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either.  Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle.  I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season.  Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values.  Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away.  But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary.  Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville.  There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on.  Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher.  If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given.  There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on.  If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year.  He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers.  What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would.  He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later.  His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this.  Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total.  At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits.  That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract.  His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit.  So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM.  I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common.  Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game.  It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be.  I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now.  Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp.  It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution.  Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long.  If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense.  The question is who to move.  They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high.  If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first.  Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer.  My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look.  They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options.  A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict.  I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season.  By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready.  They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be.  That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while.  I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines.  That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked.  As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL.  To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year.  I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim.  If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind.  When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’?  Certainly not lately.  If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

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