NHL

Every NHL season has its fair share of surprises, whether it’s the underdog team that makes it to the playoffs against all odds or the player bouncing back from a down season who turns back the clock and rediscovers his game. Even proven NHL players can stumble through a season or two and eventually return to their usual level of play, contributing as they are accustomed to. Sometimes injuries cause a player to lose their edge; for others, it could be bad luck, switching teams, or a system that doesn’t suit their skill set. In many cases, talented players find a way to recapture their form, while for others, a prolonged slump can spell the end of their NHL careers. As the 2025–26 season approaches, these players might be ready for a redemption tour.

We’ll start with a couple of goaltenders, the first being Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jarry has struggled over the past two seasons since signing a five-year contract with the Penguins on July 1, 2023. That deal firmly established Jarry as Pittsburgh’s starter for years to come, but he has lost the net in each of the last two seasons. So why is he on the list then? Well, quite frankly, it’s nearly impossible to have a worse season than being demoted to the AHL twice and passing through waivers unclaimed. However, there’s another reason why the 30-year-old is on the list. Jarry returned to the NHL for the final weeks of the season and played well, finishing the year with an 8-4-2 record and two shutouts.

Some folks might point out that Jarry had no expectations when he returned to the Penguins at the end of last season, which is why he played well. However, that is the same situation he will face this season. In fact, there are low to no expectations on the entire team, meaning Jarry shouldn’t feel much pressure coming into the year, which could actually work to his advantage. Anyone who has watched the Penguins closely understands the challenge that is the Tristan Jarry Experience—he has plenty of talent, but tends to melt down whenever the game gets tough. Jarry may do what he did as a rookie and find his form at a time when his career is on the line.

Our next goaltender, St. Louis Blues netminder Jordan Binnington, struggled at the start of last season, posting a .891 SV% in the first month and a half before a coaching change brought in Jim Montgomery. Binnington then turned his season around with a .905 SV% the rest of the year. He will have added motivation to prove he deserves to be the starting goaltender for Team Canada at the upcoming Olympics. Binnington performed extremely well in the 4 Nations Face-Off earlier this year. Still, after Canada general manager Doug Armstrong stated last week that the battle for the goaltending spots will be an open competition, Binnington may have the inside track, but he still needs to prove he belongs. He should also have a strong start to the season.

Moving up to the blueline, only one defenseman makes the list: Rasmus Andersson of the Calgary Flames. Andersson had a challenging 2024-25 season, posting his lowest point total in four years and finishing with a negative shot attempt differential for the first time since the shortened 2020-21 season, with an even-strength CF% of just 49.1. However, Andersson has a history of bouncing back after tough seasons, as he was excellent in the 2021-22 season following the pandemic-shortened year.

There is cause for optimism with Andersson, as he played part of the season with a broken fibula, which likely affected his performance; however, he should be healthy to start the season. He will also be highly motivated this year, as it is his last contract year and unrestricted free agency is approaching. If he can return to his previous level of play, he will secure a lucrative long-term deal. If not, he might face less money or a prove-it contract.

Moving to the forwards, Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews experienced a down year last season, with his goal-scoring production dropping by a significant 36 goals. The 27-year-old still tallied a solid 33 goals and 45 assists in 67 games, but he shot over three percent below his career average and is unlikely to replicate that number in the upcoming season. Matthews wasn’t nearly as dangerous last year as in previous seasons and admitted after the season that he played the entire year through an injury. If he is back to 100% this season, it isn’t unreasonable to expect the three-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner to return to form and compete for the league’s goal-scoring title once again.

Another star who experienced a significant drop in production last season was Vancouver Canucks centre Elias Pettersson. The 26-year-old saw his offensive output nearly halve, dropping from 89 points in 2023-24 to just 45 points last season (15 goals and 30 assists in 64 games). Pettersson had a well-documented rift with his former teammate, J.T. Miller, which likely impacted his performance on the ice considerably. It’s unlikely that Pettersson will match his career highs set in 2022-23 (39 goals and 63 assists in 80 games), but it’s not hard to envisage a scenario where his numbers revert to his career average. The Canucks really need the old Pettersson to re-emerge, as they are committed to another seven seasons at $11.6MM annually.

Sticking with centers, we have Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Malkin isn’t likely to rediscover his game next year at the age of 39; however, he was relatively productive last season, given the cast of characters he played with. Malkin had very little help on the Penguins’ second line last season, playing with Philip Tomasino, Anthony Beauvillier, Cody Glass, and Michael Bunting. Now, he did get a good chunk of time on Sidney Crosby’s wing (and was quite productive), but when tasked with running a line on his own, he wasn’t given much in the way of help. Much of Malkin’s production next season will hinge on who he is set up with; if he gets solid linemates, he will produce. If he is given the likes of Danton Heinen, Connor Dewar, or Kevin Hayes again, it will be a long season.

Malkin is entering what could be his final NHL season, and he will be motivated to prove he still belongs in the league. It’s hard to imagine the Penguins not giving Malkin more support this season, especially since they currently have an improved forward core.

Next, we head to the wing and go west to Los Angeles, where Kings forward Andrei Kuzmenko might be back to his best form. Kuzmenko will likely never shoot 27.3% again, as he did as a rookie in 2022-23, but he played well after being traded to the Kings and should be able to improve on that with a full season in Los Angeles. The 29-year-old finished the year with five goals and 12 assists in 22 regular-season games and then added six points in six playoff games. Kuzmenko isn’t a great skater and won’t provide much defensively, but if he can get pucks to the right spots and regain some of his scoring touch, he could put up solid numbers in Los Angeles next season.

The bounce-back season is generally difficult to predict, but there are usually warning signs that a player’s drop in production is a temporary dip rather than a trend. With Matthews and Pettersson, there are obvious factors at play, but they are young enough to rebound and return to their best. With a veteran like Malkin, regression is always possible, which should make for an interesting season.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Many NHL fans entered this summer expecting a flurry of transactions as teams anticipated a rise in the NHL salary cap after years of it remaining flat. On the surface, that expectation made sense; aggressive NHL general managers would finally have wiggle room to make bold moves after the pent-up frustration of having to pinch pennies to stay under the threshold.

However, that frenzy never materialized, and this summer was mostly a flop. Most moves were completed by July 1, and the summer blockbusters never materialized. So, where did it all go wrong, and what happened to the supposed bold moves that were expected this summer?

Many folks had expected the additional cap space to lead to trades, as aggressive teams would aim to use that room to strengthen their rosters. However, the extra space actually had the opposite effect, since most teams finally had enough cap room and didn’t need to spend the summer offloading bad contracts. This had been a common theme in previous years, as teams often had to dump one or two poor contracts to stay under the salary cap. This year, only a few cap dump trades have occurred, with defensemen Matt Dumba and Connor Clifton being traded separately to the Penguins.

The mere mention of the Penguins brings up another factor in the summer of silence: most teams entered this summer looking to improve, with the glaring exception being the Penguins, who were the only team firmly in seller territory. Pittsburgh came into the summer with three major trade chips—Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Erik Karlsson. So far, they haven’t been able to move any of them, despite many NHL teams holding salary cap space and being eager to get better.

This restraint is unusual in NHL circles, as general managers often rush to overpay for veterans. This summer, they haven’t been knocking on the Penguins’ door to acquire their available veterans. That could be due to Penguins GM Kyle Dubas holding firm on a high asking price, but with Pittsburgh’s apparent desire to rebuild, one would think there’s a middle ground that could facilitate a trade.

Rust and Rakell are both on bargain contracts with three years remaining, so it’s hard to believe they can’t be moved for close to what’s being asked. Yet, to this point, nothing has happened on the trade front. In fact, only a handful of trades have been completed since July 1, and with training camp just a few weeks away, it will be interesting to see if the pace picks up.

The trading market was clearly tight, and it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why, but there could be a few factors at play besides high asking prices. Teams with cap space, such as San Jose, Chicago, and Utah, clearly weren’t eager to spend big on win-now players and opted to look at free agency for minor improvements or, in the case of Utah, trade for younger pieces.

Meanwhile, teams aiming to make big moves couldn’t because they lacked the assets to trade. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Colorado Avalanche, and Tampa Bay Lightning would have likely loved to get better, but they all lacked first-round picks from previous big trades and just didn’t have the assets to make moves.

Now, speaking of those teams, and you could also include the Dallas Stars here, these contending teams were already close to being “capped out” even with the salary cap increase. Dallas had to make the aforementioned Dumba trade to stay compliant after re-signing their free agents, while Colorado had to send Miles Wood and Charlie Coyle to Columbus. Those teams were eventually able to create salary cap room, but even then, they used it to re-sign their own RFAs and UFAs, as well as find depth on the free agent market, rather than making trades.

Another factor was that no one was surprised by the salary cap increase, as teams had known for a while that it was going to rise after being flat for so long following the COVID-19 pandemic. This led teams and players to assume that the salary cap would go up, which is why players like Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and eventually Leon Draisaitl managed to set new records as the NHL’s highest-paid players. Instead of having a bonus room this summer, teams like the Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers had already used the extra space to cover raises they had already given their players. Signing superstars to groundbreaking contracts is not new, but it explains why the summer frenzy never really took off.

Handing out those contracts to stars kept players with their current teams and also contributed to the thin free agent market this summer. Besides Mitch Marner and Nikolaj Ehlers, most stars who were potential UFAs stayed with their former clubs rather than testing the market. This meant that teams with cap space didn’t spend large just for the sake of spending; instead, they chose to hold onto their cap space for future moves or to be aggressive in 2026 free agency when bigger names might be available.

Finally, some teams may have learned from their mistakes during the flat salary cap era. There’s an old saying that NHL general managers tend to make more errors on July 1st than at any other time of the year, which might have prompted GMs to think more carefully about their moves to avoid repeating those mistakes.

Dubas in Pittsburgh serves as a prime example, as his decisions on July 1st, 2023, have essentially saddled the Penguins with multiple bad contracts (Tristan Jarry, Ryan Graves, and Noel Acciari) for years to come. The Ottawa Senators are under new management, but even they handed out an ill-advised two-year $8MM deal to David Perron last year that they might want to redo. It appears that at least for this summer, GMs chose to be cautious with their new cap space, and it will be interesting to see if they maintain that careful approach into the NHL Trade Deadline—especially if the race for playoff spots remains tight and many teams stay in the hunt.

To summarize, there wasn’t just one reason why this summer was a flop for fans hoping for a frenzy. A weak UFA class, cautious management, and money being spent on retaining players ultimately derailed those plans. The NHL Entry Draft was busy, as were moves around July 1st, but since then, it’s been a quiet summer. The coming weeks might not bring much more news until teams start playing, injuries happen, or players don’t meet expectations, which could put teams in a tough spot, especially if they fall short of expectations.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports