Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract
True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.
This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.
So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.
It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.
It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.
Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress). While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.
Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.
For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.
Carolina Hurricanes Recall Eddie Lack From Conditioning Stint
The last time Eddie Lack suited up for the Carolina Hurricanes, it was still two weeks before Thanksgiving and the season was barely underway. After two games with the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL, he’s back in Raleigh and ready to help the team in their quest for the playoffs. Lack was concussed back in November and has been on injured reserve while the team had a carousel of netminders back up Cam Ward.
He’s back now, and hoping to get back to the level he showed in 2014-15 with the Vancouver Canucks. The Hurricanes gave up a third and seventh round selection for Lack two years ago, hoping that he could grow into at least a part-time starter with Ward. Instead, he regressed last season to a .901 save percentage and was off to an even worse start before going down with the concussion.
In his two starts with Charlotte, he allowed just three goals on 62 shots (an impressive .952 save percentage) and hopes to carry that momentum up to the NHL. The Hurricanes could use it, as they currently sit seven points back of a playoff spot and fading fast. Mired in a five-game losing skid, the team will need to really turn it around in the second half if they want to pose any threat to Philadelphia, Toronto and the rest of the Wild Card chasing teams. Carolina will take on those Flyers on Tuesday in a game that could really define their season’s next chapter.
2017 Prospect Update: Patrick, Liljegren, Hischier
Amazingly, the 2017 NHL entry draft is now less than five months away, and teams are starting to really dig into their draft boards to find that next superstar talent. The draft is an odd one this year, since the top two players have faced injury and inconsistency and didn’t take part in the World Juniors at all.
Nolan Patrick is still the consensus top talent and should go first overall, but has missed a huge chunk of his season due to injury. He make a triumphant comeback in early January with a four-point night, and is about to take part in the top prospects game tomorrow. The centerman from Winnipeg has 17 points in 11 games this season for the Brandon Wheat Kings, and will have front offices drooling over him come this summer.
An interesting connection is that of Kelly McCrimmon, who is now the assistant general manager in Vegas and was the GM in Brandon when Patrick made his debut. The Golden Knights have a chance in the lottery equal to that of the third-last place team, giving them a real chance to make him their franchise’s first selection. While his season hasn’t gone the way one had hoped, his stock hasn’t fallen nearly enough for him to be challenged for the top spot – yet.
That second spot is becoming a bit more contested though, with Timothy Liljegren not being the lock he once was thought as. The Swedish defenseman that some say has a ceiling as high as Erik Karlsson struggled in the first division before being loaned down to Timra. While this by no means hinders his development, with the explosion of a few other names it’s no guarantee that he goes second. Like Jesse Puljujarvi last season, if a team believes they have a bigger need a different position Liljegren may drop a spot. Anyone that gets him will be excited, as he can do everything on the ice and should be a star in the league for a long time.
With the top two prospects out of the World Junior’s, the stage was open for other names to impress scouts and perhaps vault themselves into the discussion at the tops of draft boards. Nico Hischier did just that, showing the world that he should be considered as one of the very top prospects in the world. Some draft boards likely already have him ahead of Liljegren, and his play for the Halifax Mooseheads hasn’t changed that. With 68 points in 40 games as a rookie, Hischier only turned 18 three weeks ago and is already a dominant centerman. He’ll undoubtedly set the record as the highest-drafted Swiss player ever, topping Nino Niederreiter‘s fifth-overall selection.
One more name to keep an eye on is Owen Tippett. The young forward is currently second in the OHL with 36 goals and has elite scoring senses from anywhere in the offensive zone. He is flying up draft boards and may even make it into the top five by the year’s end. Though he plays the wing, he may even jump over center ice prospects like Casey Mittlestadt and Gabriel Vilardi, both of whom are projected for the top-10.
Minor Transactions: 29/01/17
Good All-Star morning folks, even on this short mid-season break teams aren’t holding back from their roster shuffling. Here are all the minor transactions of the day.
- According to Joe Haggerty of CSNNE, late yesterday the Bruins did a flip-flop, sending Anton Khudobin back to the AHL and bringing up Zane McIntyre. That came less than 24 hours after the two made the opposite trips. After McIntyre played for the Providence Bruins on Friday night, Khudobin started last night and allowed four goals on 33 shots.
- Staying with flip-flopping goalies, the Columbus Blue Jackets have again swapped Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg, this time with Korpisalo heading to the NHL. Korpisalo also played last night, winning in a shootout when Oliver Bjorkstrand scored in the ninth-round.
- Cory Conacher (Lightning), Chris Terry (Canadiens) and Justin Bailey (Sabres) have been added to the AHL All-Star Rosters for your viewing pleasure tomorrow night. All three are having outstanding years in the lower level and will be replacing Joe Blandisi, Vojtech Mozik and John Quenneville, all from the Albany Devils.
- It didn’t take long for former NHL defenseman James Wisniewski to impress his new team. Just days after signing a 25-game tryout with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune is reporting he has now signed an AHL deal. That means Wisniewski would be eligible to come up to the NHL if needed at some point, but it’s unclear if he’s rediscovered his game enough for that level.
Trade Currency: Surplus Draft Picks
Trade time is upon us, with the NHL deadline coming just a month from now. While the players take a few days off for the All-Star break, front offices are busy setting up a plan for the next few weeks – unless you’re Joe Sakic that is, who took part in the Celebrity Shootout this afternoon and tapped in a goal.
One of the things team’s use most during this time to add depth to their teams are draft picks. Last year, 13 picks changed hands on deadline day itself, with another handful in the days prior. For teams looking to add for a playoff run, draft picks feel much easier to part with than roster players.
Going into this deadline, some teams have more picks accumulated from prior deals to work with. Here is a breakdown of a few teams that might be buyers, and have extra 2017 picks to dangle in trade talks.
Carolina Hurricanes – New York Rangers’ 2nd-round selection, New Jersey’s 3rd-round selection.
Carolina acquired the Rangers’ second-rounder when they dealt Eric Staal at the deadline last year. The Devils’ third-rounder is one that came with conditions, though they were likely met when Andrei Loktionov went back to the KHL. The Hurricanes could use some help if they’re going to catch anyone in the Metropolitan division.
Chicago Blackhawks – Carolina’s 5th-round selection, St. Louis’ 5th-round selection, New York Islanders’ 6th-round selection.
The Blackhawks will be using anything they can to add at the deadline, meaning these three extra picks could come in handy. They could also use them to beef up a farm system that has continued to develop replacements for players lost to salary cap crunches.
Edmonton Oilers – St. Louis’ 3rd-round selection, Vancouver’s 5th-round selection
Both extra picks the Oilers have are conditional, but unless Nail Yakupov has a tremendous second-half, it looks like neither will change from this season. A team that hasn’t been a buyer in a long time, they have enough young players to sacrifice some draft talent.
Montreal Canadiens – Washington’s 2nd-round selection.
The Habs got a couple of second-round picks when they moved Lars Eller this summer, meaning they’ll have some extra currency when the deadline comes around. It’ll be interesting to see if Montreal uses their draft picks instead of prospect capital to make a move at the deadline.
Philadelphia Flyers – Boston’s 3rd-round selection, Philadelphia’s 4th-round selection.
The Flyers have had a rough stretch after starting so well, but after beating the Maple Leafs on Thursday night are currently back in a playoff spot. If they decide that they can still push, they could use these extra picks in a package. Goaltending and defense is on their mind, but they’d obviously have to include more than the mid-round picks.
Toronto Maple Leafs – San Jose’s 2nd-round pick, Ottawa’s 2nd-round pick.
The Maple Leafs already owe Anaheim one of the two picks from the Frederik Andersen trade last summer, but could still use the other one to help them back into the playoffs for the first time since the shortened season. The Shanaplan says to build slow through the draft, but with the extra pick the team could add some veteran depth to a blueline that still has trouble defending.
Latest On The Colorado Avalanche
The trade deadline is just a month away, and teams are circling like vultures over the bottom feeders in the NHL. They smell blood in the waters of Colorado, with media and fan pressure to shake up the team and start again. This core, though still quite young, is apparently about to be broken up. Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are the most common names mentioned, and Adrian Dater of the Bleacher Report revealed what one source tells him it would cost to land one of them.
“At bare minimum it’ll take young, established D player and 1st round pick to get either Duchene or Landy”, Dater tweeted Saturday afternoon following it up by saying though Sakic could possibly get more, he’d likely do it for that package. This comes on the heels of an earlier report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun that said it would cost a young defenseman, first-round pick and a top prospect.
For the Avalanche, who sit in last place in the entire NHL and are on pace for an astonishingly-low season total of 50 points (the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 30th last season with 69 points) it’s clearly a frustrating time. The team has three forwards who are legitimate stars in Duchene, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon and an emerging talent in Mikko Rantanen, but haven’t been able to put together anything this season. For Landeskog especially this has been a tough year, scoring just 17 points through the first half of the season.
Any team looking to add one of the Colorado forwards has to be wary of their contracts, as both carry hefty cap-hits for the next few years (Landeskog has four years left while Duchene only has two). Both players do come with quite a history of success however, and are young enough to fit into pretty much any stage in a team’s development.
Pre-Season Projections: The Midway Point
Back in September, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada released their first projections for the 2016-17 season through over/unders on regular season point totals and Stanley Cup odds for each NHL team. When organized and combined, it painted a pretty clear picture of how Vegas saw the season and postseason playing out. So, how are they doing so far? As can be expected, it’s a pretty mixed bag. (Click pictures for larger images)
These are the original projections that Bovada made prior to the start of the season, accompanied by the resulting playoff match-ups. Any casual fan can likely spot some huge failed predictions halfway through this season. For those not up to date, here are the current standings and the playoff match-ups if they started today:
And here are the projected final standings and playoff line-up, without taking strength of schedule – competition, home and away, spacing – into account:
So, how did they do? If the playoffs started today, then Bovada would have correctly picked five Eastern Conference teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Montreal, New York Rangers, Boston), including the correct seeds for the Capitals and Rangers, and six Western Conference teams (Minnesota, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis), including the correct seeds for the Sharks and Ducks. However, looking at the projected final standings as of now, the Bruins will drop out and the Los Angeles Kings will slip in, making it four in the East and seven in the West.
Which teams did they miss on? The most egregious error, and one that nearly everyone in hockey made, was counting out the Columbus Blue Jackets. The smart money back in September would have been on Columbus, as Bovada gave them the worst odds of winning the Stanley Cup at 66/1, tied with the Carolina Hurricanes, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes (whose Cup odds have actually gotten worse since then). If the Blue Jackets hit their projection of 116 points this season, they’ll have beaten their over/under by over 31 points in the standings, and will finish with the second-best record in the conference instead of eleventh. On the other side is the Colorado Avalanche. You know you’re having a bad season when Vegas doesn’t predict that you’ll make the playoffs, but you’re still 37 points off the set pace. The Avs are trending toward having one of the worst seasons in recent memory with just 50 points, and no one at Bovada saw that kind of struggle coming. Two other big misses, as it currently stands, have been the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars. Bovada expected both to be the second-best team in their conference and gave them top-five odds to win the Stanley Cup. At this point in time, either club would be lucky to even qualify for the playoffs. Other teams that are way off the pace Vegas set for them are the Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs, who have all overachieved this season with little off-season suspicion that they would do so.
What does Bovada have right? They deserve some credit for more or less nailing the Western Conference. Although they missed the meteoric rise of the Wild and the Edmonton Oilers’ long-awaited ascent to a playoff-caliber team, they are currently set to have seven correct playoff choices. Not only that, but the Sharks, Blackhawks, and Ducks are going to finish very close to a push on their original over/unders and the Coyotes look to be every bit the lottery team that they expected. Over in the East, the success is not as profound. Bovada did a pretty good job of pegging the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils as bottom-dwellers, but completely missed on their projections for the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Senators, and even the Carolina Hurricanes, who they believed would finish last in the East and instead was in playoff position just a couple weeks ago. The postseason picture is better, other than the Lightning, as Bovada got the easy picks and projections for the Capitals, Penguins, and Canadiens and have accurately set up the Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers as fringe teams fighting for a playoff spot.
So, the expert odds-makers at Bovada have some major misses so far, but as a whole are doing a decent job with their original predictions at this point in time. How did your favorite writers at Pro Hockey Rumors do? In short: not very well.
The PHR Staff Picks are not a pretty picture at this point in time. The clean sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning as Atlantic Division champs appears to be a widespread misread. All but two of us, credit to Brett Barrett and Brian La Rose, additionally had the Bolts in the Stanley Cup final. We’re all as confused as Steve Yzerman as to what it happening in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Predators, Blues, and especially the Stars as Central Division contenders seems unlikely, as does the Kings as Pacific champs. However, making the playoffs is more than half of the battle in the NHL, as many lower seeds have gone on to have postseason success. With that, projections of the Predators, Blues, and Kings in the Western Conference final are not impossible. In reality though, there are only two reasonable Stanley Cup champion picks remaining on the board, and Brett Barrett deserves a round of applause for the only plausible Stanley Cup final at this point in time, with the Chicago Blackhawks defeating the Washington Capitals.
Will the current projections hold? Will ours and Bovada’s predictions look better or worse by year’s end? Tune in to the second half of the season to find out.
Snapshots: Olympics, Waivers, Hurricanes Sale
In what proved to be a short meeting, the NHL Board of Governors met today to discuss the 2018 Olympics and whether the league will be participating. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly reported to Frank Seravalli of TSN that the meeting lasted just ten seconds, and said there was nothing new to report.
It’s looking more and more like the league will not be headed to the Pyeong Chang games, though some players have expressed that they will go regardless of the league’s decision. It’s hard to imagine players like Alex Ovechkin leaving their team in the middle of the season, but it may come to that. For his part, Capitals owner Ted Leonsis has said he would support his superstar winger if he did decide to go against the NHL’s wishes.
- Erik Erlendsson of Lightning Insider reports that Michael Bournival and Gabriel Dumont have both cleared waivers today, though both are currently still with the NHL team. The two player transaction represents the latest in what will be a busy few weeks for GM Steve Yzerman. Starting on Thursday, what some believe may become a fire-sale kicked off with the dealing of Nikita Nesterov to the Montreal Canadiens. The team has a lot more work to do as it works to protect itself from the expansion draft.
- Tampa has also re-assigned Jake Dotchin back to the AHL according to Bryan Burns of NHL.com, oddly enough without any mention of Bournival or Dumont. Perhaps something is brewing with the recently waived forwards. Dotchin has played three games for the Lightning this year and was held scoreless.
- The Carolina Hurricanes owner Peter Karmanos told Pierre LeBrun of ESPN that he’s now willing to sell the entire franchise, not just a part of it as previously reported. Karmanos has been looking for a buyer for a while now, but has previously been quoted as saying he would guarantee it stays in North Carolina. Obviously, if he were to sell the entire thing he wouldn’t be able to make that guarantee, though he could refuse to make a deal with anyone planning on a relocation. With the Canes floundering at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and still unable to draw a decent crowd each night, perhaps relocation does fall in their future. For now, we’ll keep an eye on any potential buyers the team may be in contact with.
NHL Releases Celebrity Shootout Rosters
Today is the skills competition portion of the NHL All-Star weekend, and the league has combined the skill of the sport with the star power of Hollywood. The league released the rosters for the Celebrity Shootout, packed with former NHL stars as well.
The league will start with the Celebrity Shootout which features celebrities like Tim Robbins and Cuba Gooding Jr. Justin Bieber was name highlighted by the NHL. Both teams will wear patches honoring Alan Thicke who passed away in December. Thicke was a noted actor for his work on the 80’s television show Growing Pains, and was also a diehard hockey fan.
The Celebrity Shootout is scheduled for 4:15 pm CST. Below are the rosters for both teams.
Team Lemieux (Black)
77 Ray Bourque
21 Peter Forsberg
91 Sergei Fedorov
17 Jari Kurri
19 Larry Robinson
27 Scott Niedermayer
44 Chris Pronger
20 Luc Robitaille
26 Peter Stastny
24 David Boreanaz
37 Taylor Kitsch
91 Riker Lynch
32 Ross Lynch
7 Ron MacLean
13 Steven R. McQueen
8 Teemu Selanne
22 Vincent Piazza
4 Angela Ruggiero
2 Mr. Zhou (goalie)
Team Gretzky (White)
6 Justin Bieber
88 Patrick Kane
4 Rob Blake
11 Mike Gartner
88 Eric Lindros
5 Nicklas Lidstrom
19 Joe Sakic
18 Denis Savard
21 Borje Salming
12 Cuba Gooding Jr
19 Jerry Bruckheimer
25 Joe Nieuwendyk
44 Billy Flynn
7 Michael Rosenbaum
37 Tim Robbins
20 Carter Thicke
72 Ken Baker (goalie)
1 James Badge Dale (goalie)
NHL Names Top 100 Players Of All Time
Last night on the NBC Sports Network, the NHL released the top 100 players of all time and the debate, which has raged long before this was released, will continue on. Hosted by actor Jon Hamm, the ceremony honored players by decade, and categorized them by goalies, defensemen, and forwards.
The first thirty-three were released on New Years Day during the Centennial Classic in Toronto. The players named in the first thirty-three were active between 1917-1966. The rest, named last night, have played from 1967 to the present day.
There were a number of story lines:
- Jonas Siegel of the Canadian Press wrote that Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Wayne Gretzky agree that Gordie Howe is the greatest hockey player of all time. Gretzky added that while Sidney Crosby is the greatest in the game today, Connor McDavid is making the case to “chase him” as the next in line.
- Speaking of Crosby’s generation, the selection of the more recent players to the top 100 caused quite the debate around the hockey world. The arguments boil down into a couple ways: either include more current players by subtracting players from other decades or be more selective in the current generation. The six on the current list were Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin.
- The Score’s Sean O’Leary thinks that Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla, and Joe Thornton should have “cracked” the list. O’Leary believes that Malkin is a lock for the top 100, while Iginla, though never winning a Cup, was a dominant force in the league, scoring 617 goals in his long (and still active) career.
- Curtis Pashelka also wonders why Joe Thornton isn’t included on the list. His stats alone seem to qualify him for the top 100, but the lack of a Stanley Cup makes Pashelka think that it kept Thornton out of the illustrious club.
- Finally, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski includes his list of snubs which name the aforementioned Iginla, Malkin, and Thornton. But Wyshysnki also lists Zdeno Chara, Ed Belfour, Dale Hawerchuk, and Pierre Pilote as players deserving of inclusion.