With the Predators struggling in the standings (sixth in the Central Division) and a rapidly-growing list of injuries to key players, defenseman Mattias Ekholm has emerged as a potential trade piece. But if the 30-year-old has his way, he’ll be staying with Nashville as he told Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription link) that his preference is to remain with the team that drafted back in the fourth round (102nd overall) in 2009.
It’s quite understandable as to why he’ll be highly sought-after. Top-four blueliners are hard to come by at this time of year and Ekholm is certainly that. He has logged heavy minutes, playing more than 23 per game in each of the last four seasons and over 21 this year. Offensively, he has been quietly consistent, picking up 33 points or more in four of the last five years and with four goals and five assists in 18 games this season, he’d be above that pace if this was a full schedule. And of course, in his own end, he has been one of Nashville’s top defensive weapons, often spending time against opposing top players.
At a time where teams are having even more difficulty fitting extra money on the books, Ekholm is certainly quite affordable. Carrying just a $3.75MM AAV for this season and next, he’s on a below-market deal although in this environment, it’s worth noting that his price tag in salary dollars jumps to $5MM next season.
The obvious comparable in terms of a trade would be the Kings-Maple Leafs swap involving Jake Muzzin in 2019 with the blueliner going to Toronto for a first-round pick and a pair of prospects. Muzzin carried a similar price tag ($4MM), was the same age, and had the same amount of term remaining on the deal.
However, there are a couple of different factors at play. More teams could afford Muzzin then than can afford Ekholm now unless Nashville shows a desire to take a sizable contract back as part of the return. Of course, there is also expansion to consider. Ekholm would almost certainly be a must-protect player so the acquiring team would have to be comfortable with not only losing the elements required for any trade but also the opportunity cost of not protecting a different defender has to also be taken into consideration.
While the 2020-21 season is going up in smoke in a hurry for the Preds, this isn’t a situation where GM David Poile is going to be forced into making a move. Nashville can safely protect Ekholm from Seattle and because he has another year on his deal, Poile can wait until the summer to see what the offers look like when teams more have financial flexibility. Of course, Ekholm’s preference appears to be that no move is made at all.
The problem for Nashville in keeping Ekholm, they’ll likely have to protect 4 defensemen again in the expansion draft. That only allows them to protect 4 forwards. Of course, you can argue that the way the Preds are playing that they only have a couple of forwards that are even worth protecting
He’d look really good next to Weber
I don’t think they’d be wise to give up their top prospects for a 1.5 year rental at this point. They’re still a couple of years away from being contenders.