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Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

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We are now less than a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning needed to look for a new challenge this season after stomping the competition in the 2020 postseason. They decided that if the league’s teams weren’t good enough to beat them, they would just take on the league itself. This season, the Lightning have stretched the NHL’s hard salary cap to it’s limit. Some might even throw the word “circumvention” out there. Tampa has managed to hold on to it’s extremely talented and fairly compensated roster due almost entirely due to the timely injury of Nikita Kucherov and the acquisitions of other injured players Marian Gaborik and Anders Nilsson. The Bolts have over $17MM in salary on Long-Term Injured Reserve – and they’ve used up all but $370,500 of it. There is zero space for the Lightning to do anything at the trade deadline beyond a minor depth addition, but they will get a major boost in the postseason with the return of Kucherov. Barring another opportunistic injury or a hockey trade that no one sees coming, the Bolts may have to settle for that this season.

Record

26-11-2, .692, 3rd in Central Division

Deadline Status

Stand Pat

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space ($371K in LTIR space), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: TBL 1st, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, NJD 7th, NSH 7th, TBL 7th
2022: TBL 1st, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, TBL 7th

Trade Chips

There is a difference between what the Lightning could offer and what they will offer, given that they are in no position to make much of a trade. It is unlikely that the team is going to move any of their roster players to open up space, so even though pieces like Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn may seem expendable, it is hard to imagine the team trading them in-season as opposed to waiting for the off-season.

As a result, Tampa has little space to work with and that means their targets will not be high-priced pieces. The most likely result for the Bolts is that they add a cheap depth piece in exchange for a late pick or low-end prospect. Those are the “chips” that will probably move, if there is any move at all.

In the event that Tampa tries to make a bigger move, using the very limit of their salary cap potential despite the risks, they will still be looking at a picks-and-prospects scenario in this buyer’s market. Without a second-round pick for the next two years, the Lightning’s first-rounders are probably off the table unless they are asking a team to give up one of the top rentals on the market and retain the maximum 50% of his salary in order to make the deal work under the cap. The likelihood of such a deal is low. Expect for them instead to dangle multiple mid-round picks and prospects like Jack Finley or Jack Thompson if they really want to make a splash.

Others to Watch For: F Taylor Raddysh ($833K, RFA), F Boris Katchouk ($833K, RFA), F Alex Barre-Boulet ($759K, RFA), F Sam Walker (Draft Rights), D Eamon Powell (Draft Rights)

Team Needs

1) Defense – If, and it’s a big if, the Lightning are able to find a way to clear enough cap space to add a player of note at the deadline, it has to be on the blue line. The forward corps is deep and talented and will only get better once the postseason arrives and Kucherov can return. The net is well-manned, with Andrei Vasilevskiy enjoying another Vezina-caliber season. Both of those units remain largely unchanged from last season’s title-winning lineup. However, the defense has taken a hit. The top four is still stout, but the bottom pair and depth options range from young and inexperienced to old and ineffective. Tampa could really use a stabilizing force on the back end, especially with Jan Rutta sidelined and Erik Cernak dealing with a nagging injury. Of course, cost will be a factor. Without making a trade to move out salary, the Bolts can only open up another $1.5MM max and still be able to ice a full lineup, demoting the likes of Luke Schenn and Ben Thomas. That leaves the Bolts with a maximum $1.9MM or so to acquire a defenseman, but adding that much salary is a risk should another injury occur. The need is there, but the means to address it are problematic. The team likely thinks small with a value addition.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Odeen Tufto

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While the rest of the hockey world focuses on some high-profile college talent signing their entry-level contracts, the Tampa Bay Lightning have announced a more under-the-radar signing. Odeen Tufto has signed a one-year entry-level contract with the Lightning for the 2021-22 season and will report to the Syracuse Crunch on an amateur tryout for the rest of this season.

Tufto, 24, was one of the top undrafted college free agents after an incredible senior season that saw him score 47 points in just 29 games. That mark was good enough to make him a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award, but it isn’t all that much different than his other three seasons for Quinnipiac University. The 5’7″ forward put up totals of 41, 42 and 38 points in his first three years, meaning he’ll leave college with 168 points in 139 appearances. His 39 assists led the nation this season and he served as captain for Quinnipiac.

While he doesn’t project the same as someone like Cole Caufield, the only NCAA player to score more points than him this season, Tufto is a sneaky depth pickup for an organization that has never been afraid of adding undersized forward talent. The Lightning have made stars out of players like Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde, neither of whom were drafted despite elite offensive numbers in junior. It’s a long shot, but perhaps the Tampa Bay development staff can coax a similar performance out of Tufto, who has scored a boatload of points at every stop so far.

Central Notes: Tortorella, Lehtonen, Barkov, McDonagh

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Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen wasn’t too happy about the two-game sweep the team endured over the weekend to the lowly Detroit Red Wings. In fact, the GM is quite frustrated with the team’s struggles.

“It’s shocking,” Kekalainen said. “Especially to think that we played some of our best hockey just before that (vs. Carolina). To go to Detroit and play like that, get beaten like that twice in a row, is not good.”

However, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) writes that despite the fact that John Tortorella is in the final year of his contract and is likely moving on at the end of the year, the team doesn’t seem intent on removing their head coach.

“It doesn’t look like a team, that’s the way I would put,” Kekalainen said. “I’m sure (Tortorella) is as frustrated as anybody right now. I’ve said it before: It can’t all fall on one guy. Players should have enough professional pride to always try to be at their best, play for the team, play for the logo and play for the organization. Right now we’re not looking like a team like that.”

  • Sticking with the Blue Jackets, defenseman Mikko Lehtonen will make his Columbus debut, according to Portzline. The blueliner was acquired from Toronto for goalie prospect Veini Vehvilainen on March 12 and has now passed through quarantine. The highly-touted offensive defenseman was a big signing by Toronto during the offseason, but couldn’t work his way into the lineup there, appearing in just nine games with three assists.
  • Florida Panthers head coach Joel Quenneville told reporters that star center Aleksander Barkov should return to the team shortly, according to NHL.com’s Jameson Olive. While Barkov was not on the ice Tuesday, Quenneville said he expects him to return at some point during the team’s four-game homestand. Barkov has missed four straight games with a lower-body injury.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh was on the ice for practice Tuesday with the team. However, the blueliner, who has missed three straight games due to a lower-body injury, wasn’t a full participant, rotating in at different times during drills, according to The Athletic’s Joe Smith. That would suggest that while McDonagh is close to returning to the lineup, he is likely still a few days away from returning to game action

Anaheim Ducks Acquire Alexander Volkov

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Late last night, the Anaheim Ducks made a move to secure some young talent. The team has acquired Alexander Volkov from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Antoine Morand and a conditional seventh-round selection in 2023. Ducks GM Bob Murray released a short statement on the move:

We are excited to have Alexander join our organization. We believe a fresh start will help him further develop as we look to continue adding youthful talent. 

Volkov, 23, has shown flashes of brilliance in his young career with the Lightning but was stuck behind a deep forward group and playing just a handful of shifts each game. In 19 appearances this season he had registered five points, averaging just under ten minutes a game. Originally selected 48th overall in 2017, the young Russian was a strong offensive force for three seasons with the Syracuse Crunch, but hasn’t yet been able to translate that to the NHL level. In Anaheim he’ll be given a fresh start with a team desperate for young scoring talent.

Importantly, Volkov is a restricted free agent this offseason and will be arbitration-eligible. The Ducks can afford to give him a raise to keep him on North American ice, but the Lightning likely couldn’t commit any more than the league minimum given their cap restraints. For Anaheim he is a worthwhile gamble given how little it cost to acquire him.

Morand, 22, was also a second-round pick in 2017, but hasn’t found any level of offensive success in the AHL so far. In 21 games this season he has just one goal and six points, a far cry from the numbers he put up in the QMJHL. Still, given Morand still has another year on his entry-level deal and will be a restricted free agent after that, perhaps the Lightning believe they can turn a corner in his development. The draft pick that comes along will be a seventh-rounder no matter what but could transfer to 2024 if the 2023 selection is unavailable due to a previous trade.

That’s not much to give up for a talent like Volkov, even if he hasn’t put it all together at this point. Getting NHL games out of Morand is not even close to a guarantee, but after going through protocols the Ducks could put Volkov in the lineup right away.

Nikita Kucherov Resumes Skating

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While he was ruled out for the year before the regular season got underway, Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov has resumed skating and is on pace to return for the start of the playoffs, notes Joe Smith of the Athletic (Twitter link).  The 27-year-old actually did some light work with Tampa Bay in practice although he’s still long way away from being ready to return.

The big question will be when he is indeed ready to play.  The Lightning can’t afford to activate him off LTIR at all this season due to their salary cap situation but if he has started light skating drills already, it may also be difficult to argue that he’ll need two full months to recover and then immediately be ready for game one of the playoffs just days later.  It’s certainly going to be something to keep an eye on although Tampa Bay is certainly thrilled that their top-scoring forward is doing well in his recovery from offseason surgery.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Daniel Walcott

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The Tampa Bay Lightning announced an extension for one of their minor league veterans last night, inking Daniel Walcott to a new two-year contract. The two-way deal will cover the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons and keep Walcott from becoming an unrestricted free agent later this summer.

Now 27, Walcott was originally selected in the fifth round of the 2014 draft as a defenseman but has played mostly forward of late during his minor league career. With the Syracuse Crunch since 2015, he now wears an “A” as an alternate captain. He never has played in the NHL and if he does, it will likely come as a fourth-line injury replacement.

Still, the Crunch have always valued the leadership that AHL veterans bring and Walcott has now been rewarded with a nice two-year contract. The financial details of the contract were not included in the press release, but his cap hit will almost assuredly stay buried anyway.

Jan Rutta Day-To-Day With A Lower-Body Injury

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  • Lightning defenseman Jan Rutta is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, the team announced (Twitter link). The veteran had played in every game for Tampa Bay until last night, notching six assists in 21 contests. The team doesn’t have enough room in LTIR to make another recall although they do still have six healthy blueliners on the roster for the time being.

Minor Transactions: 03/01/21

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As a strange season continues, with leagues around the globe at different places in their respective seasons, it does not appear as if there will ever be a shortage of noteworthy transactions. Here is the latest group of minor moves:

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have reassigned a pair of prospects back to their junior clubs in the WHL, with the league finally getting back to work. Gage Goncalves and Jack Finley, both under contract, as well as fellow Tampa draft pick Jaydon Dureau had all been playing in the AHL with the Syracuse Crunch, albeit with four total appearances between them. All three will have a greater role as leaders of their junior teams. The trio are all staying in the U.S., as Goncalves returns to the Everett Silvertips, Finley to the Spokane Chiefs, and Dureau to the Portland Winterhawks.
  • The Laval Rocket and forward Kevin Lynch have agreed to a mutual contract termination. Laval revealed that Lynch and his family simply wished to return home to the U.S., so the Michigan native may still wind up with another club this season. Lynch, 29, is a veteran of over 200 AHL games and previously played on a two-way contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2018-19.
  • New York Rangers prospect Leevi Aaltonen does not appear too eager to begin his North American career any time soon. The 2019 fifth-round pick just moved to a new Liiga team, Kookoo, for the remainder of this season, the club announced. However, the new contract also includes an additional two years, keeping him under contract in Finland through the 2022-23 season. Fortunately, the Rangers have until June 1, 2023 to sign him to an entry-level contract before they would lose his rights. Aaltonen seems comfortable maximizing his development time at home in Finland before making that decision.

Trade Rumors: Market, Virtanen-Heinen, NMCs, Red Wings

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While the NHL Trade Deadline is exactly six weeks away and trade whispers have grown louder in recent days, a number of sources warn that it may be a mistake to expect an active trade market. The factors at play are what one might expect: the flat salary cap and clubs’ financial limitations as well as the U.S.-Canada border restrictions. Speaking on Sportsnet 960 in Calgary today, Elliotte Friedman noted that the market is much quieter than recent rumor and speculation has led everyone to believe. He cites the border issue – a mandatory 14-day quarantine for any player heading north – as limiting potential trade partners, but states that finances are an even greater inhibitor. Friedman said that many clubs are not looking to add salary and stress is being placed more on actual dollars than on cap hits. The Athletic’s Craig Custance and Eric Duhatschek take it even one step further, reporting that “few teams have permission to add salary” and noting that some non-contenders have been ordered by ownership to cut salary if at all possible. There is also the issue that many of the teams who may have the financial ability to add salary lack the cap space to do so. CapFriendly currently lists 16 teams – more than half the league – with projected cap space that amounts to less than a minimum salary and only seven teams currently in a playoff spot are among those with flexibility.

Fortunately, we may not be entirely without fireworks at the deadline. Friedman notes that major investments on players whose impact on teams will last beyond just this season or next could be seen as exceptions to the rule when it comes to adding salary. These additions can be excused as a financial commitment beyond the current financial and flat cap crises. Custance and Duhatschek also point out that for those Canadian teams with the means and desire to add, the deadline may be a little late given the possibility of lengthy quarantines, meaning trades could start up well before six weeks from now. There is hope that there will still be some transactional excitement this season and possibly even sooner rather than later.

  • It sure seemed like a notable trade was about to occur this weekend. On Saturday, it was reported by a number of sources that the Anaheim Ducks and Vancouver Canucks were nearing a deal that would have swapped Jake Virtanen and Danton Heinen. However, the deal never occurred and Friedman questions whether it was really as close as it was made out to be. The two sides certainly did discuss a trade and those two players in particular, and by all accounts continue to do so, but Friedman says that things got “carried away” before a firm deal was in place. The two sides are committed to balancing out the salaries in the trade and while Virtanen and Heinen do have very similar cap hits, their salaries are not even. In the final year of his contract, Heinen carries a $2.8MM AAV and near-equal amount of actual salary. Virtanen’s contract carries a $2.55MM AAV and he is owed only $1.7MM in salary this year, but he has an additional season remaining and $3.4MM in salary. That discrepancy is significant and a major hurdle and the reason why Friedman says a one-for-one swap was never a possibility. He notes that Derek Grant was discussed as a possible addition from Anaheim’s side and he could still be part of a final deal. In the first year of a three-year contract, Grant’s $1.5MM salary next year and $1.75MM in 2022-23 could help to offset Virtanen’s cost to Anaheim next year, but it doesn’t entirely cover the the difference and it is of course discounting the fact that Grant is a valuable player in his own right and not just a salary dump. There is clearly still more work to be done by the Ducks and Canucks if this heavily-rumored deal is to actually become reality. In the meantime, Friedman stated that Virtanen’s salary next season is a turn-off for most teams and could hinder Vancouver’s ability to trade him, especially if these talks with Anaheim fall apart.
  • One other limiting factor for the current trade market is that a pair of notable rental candidates may not be willing to waive their No-Movement Clauses. While there could be interest in Arizona Coyotes defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, especially in a lacking rental market for blue liners, don’t expect the respected veteran to be on the move. Custance and Duhatschek write that Hjalmarsson has no interest in waiving his NMC and appears content to play out the final year of his contract in Arizona. Hjalmarsson does appear to have lost a step, scoring at a career-low rate and getting penalized at a career-high rate, so perhaps it’s in the best interest of all parties if he finishes out the year and rides off into the sunset. The more surprising note from Custance and Duhatschek on a player who also may not be willing to waive their NMC for a potential trade is Taylor Hall. Signed to a one-year deal this off-season, it was expected that Hall would again be the top trade deadline target if the Buffalo Sabres were not on a postseason trajectory. Well, the Sabres are certainly not playoff-bound, but Hall doesn’t seem to mind. Custance and Duhatschek cite sources who believe that Hall, ranked at just No. 24 on The Athletic’s trade board, is happy in Buffalo and would like to stay. There is a belief that an extension may be more likely than a trade at this point, even with the Sabres’ season in shambles and the team in need of the immense trade capital he would return.
  • Another year, another season in which the Detroit Red Wings will be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the team may be looking to move more than just rentals in the coming weeks (or in the off-season). A rival executive tells Custance and Duhatschek that GM Steve Yzerman is listening to all offers and wouldn’t be surprised if a young core forward such as Anthony Mantha or Tyler Bertuzzi were moved. Mantha, 26, is struggling this season and it remains unclear what his ceiling may be in the NHL as he has dealt with injury and inconsistency over the years. Bertuzzi, also 26, actually got off to a great start early this season, scoring at the best pace of his career albeit in nine games. He has since been sidelined by injury and without building on his hot start, there remain concerns that his development has flatlined in Detroit. If the Red Wings doubt that either player can be an effective part of the young core they are growing in the pipeline, they could be moved.

Anthony Cirelli Expected To Play Tonight Against Dallas

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Tampa Bay will have one of their top forwards back in the lineup tonight as Anthony Cirelli is expected to play against Dallas, relays Joe Smith of The Athletic (Twitter link).  The 23-year-old has missed the last six games due to an upper-body injury and was off to a big start before it occurred, notching four goals and six assists in his first dozen games.  With the Lightning carrying a minimum-sized roster, they won’t have to make a corresponding roster move to get him activated.

Meanwhile, despite leaving Thursday’s victory over Carolina early with his lower-body injury, the Lightning will also have defenseman Erik Cernak in their lineup.  He’s logging more than 18 minutes per game on their back end so far this season and his availability means that they can hold Luke Schenn down on their taxi squad, extending his waiver exemption in the process.

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