At the start of the 2018-19 NHL season, there was not a more excited fanbase than that of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Not only did the Maple Leafs have young phenoms budding in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, but the organization brought marquee free agent John Tavares into the mix on a seven-year, $77MM contract.
Since the informal start of the ’Core Four’, Toronto has appeared in the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons but has only managed to get out of the First Round once. Although there has been some speculation in the past, it appears the Maple Leafs organization may be giving more serious thought to breaking up the quartet.
To preface, Marner is not uniquely worse than any other member of the group, as they all bring their separate strengths to Toronto’s lineup. However, with Tavares’ $11MM cap hit next season likely keeping him from the trade block, coupled with Matthews and Nylander recently signing big-money extensions to stay with the organization, Marner looks like the most predictable candidate to be the odd man out.
Marner is entering the last season of a six-year, $65.408MM extension signed with Toronto in 2019, with a full No-Move Clause kicking in on July 1st of last year. If the Maple Leafs are set on moving Marner this offseason, they will need his consent no matter the destination or the return package.
Assuming Toronto does not retain any salary, and they are not taking any large AAV contracts back in return, moving Marner will allow the Maple Leafs to free up nearly $11MM in cap space, as well as acquire plenty of young talent and draft capital in return. Especially if the acquiring team can sign Marner to an extension as a part of the trade package, Toronto could set themselves up nicely for the future even by trading just one of the ’Core Four’.
Although it would be nice if Toronto could have more future capital, as well as the flexibility to better re-allocate their financial resources, there is no guarantee that any player or pick acquired will turn out to be half the player that Marner is. Over eight years in Toronto, Marner has put up 639 points in 576 games; an offensive output that is rare to come across in an individual player. Since it’s hard to imagine a prospect or draft pick coming back to the Maple Leafs being even nearly as good as Marner, it complicates the argument that a move such as this would put them in a better position to win.
Now the vote is left to you, to be a more competitive team in next year’s playoffs, is Toronto better served by keeping Marner for the long haul, or should they try and move on from him this summer?