Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders
The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Islanders.
New York has made several bold moves over the last 12 months, first moving a first-round pick to add defenseman Alexander Romanov from Montreal before moving another first-rounder along with Anthony Beauvillier and Aatu Raty to acquire center Bo Horvat from Vancouver. They wasted little time extending Horvat to a new deal with a cap hit of $8.5MM just months after extending Mathew Barzal on a max-term agreement worth $9.15MM per season. Despite the aggressiveness from GM Lou Lamoriello, the end result was a quick exit from the playoffs. While this summer shouldn’t feature much in the way of bold activity, the Isles still have some things to accomplish.
Sign A Backup Goalie
For the past four seasons, Semyon Varlamov has been an important netminder for the Islanders. He has been quite consistent as well with his save percentage in three of those seasons ranging from .911 to .914; the outlier was his career-best performance in 2020-21 (.929) which saw him crack the top five in Vezina voting. In the last two years, he has ceded playing time to Ilya Sorokin which made his $5MM AAV a bit on the high side but New York was able to play an above-average netminder in every game this season. Not too many teams could say that.
However, the 35-year-old is set to hit the open market in July and with Sorokin entrenched as the starter, it’s reasonable to think that Varlamov will look to head elsewhere in the hopes of a bigger role although regardless of where he lands, it’s quite likely that he’ll be facing a cut in pay as well. Lamoriello will need to find a replacement. It would be surprising to see that replacement coming from inside the organization as veteran Cory Schneider is also set to hit the open market while AHL starter Jakub Skarek has yet to see NHL action.
With a projection of around $5.3MM in cap space per CapFriendly with other spots to fill (more on those later) and the fact that Sorokin is one of the better starters in the NHL, it would seem that this is a spot that Lamoriello can try to shop closer to the lower end of the market and target a second-stringer closer to the $1.5MM range. Of course, there’s a risk in doing so if Sorokin gets hurt but many teams with a top goalie adopt this approach to allow them to spend more on other spots so it would be quite reasonable for New York to follow suit.
Clear Bailey’s Contract
Josh Bailey has been with the Islanders for quite a long time. Very quietly, he ranks third in franchise history in games played, just three behind Denis Potvin for second. He’s seventh in Islanders history in points and a decent showing next season could get him into the top five. The 33-year-old has been with the team for 15 seasons now after making the jump to the NHL just months after being drafted in the first round back in 2008. All things considered, he has been a pretty good ninth-overall selection.
And yet, in spite of all of this, one of the biggest keys to their offseason is the Islanders finding a way to offload the final year of Bailey’s contract, one that carries a $5MM AAV. After more than 1,000 games played, he has started to slow down and his point production (25) this season was the second-lowest of his career. The only time it was lower was the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Bailey is being paid like a top-six forward but it’s fair to wonder if he can be that type of player anymore.
Let’s look back at their cap figure from earlier, around $5.3MM in cap space. If they can find a way to move Bailey elsewhere, that comes close to doubling and all of a sudden, Lamoriello has some options to try to add to his roster. If he’s unable to move him though, then they are going to be very limited in what they can do.
Of course, moving Bailey’s contract outright is going to be a challenge. Yes, there are some teams who will be able to take on a bad deal for a season but they’re not going to do so without being properly incentivized. With several teams needing to offload salary, the price to do it is going to be steep. New York’s prospect pool has taken a hit lately and again, they don’t have a first-rounder in the upcoming draft. If it costs a first-rounder to move that contract, are they going to be willing to do it? Yes, they have all their upcoming second-round selections but two of those might not be enough if there are a high number of motivated teams that want or need to clear money.
There is another option to consider, the buyout. It would save some money this season – $2.333MM – but when you factor in that another player (making at least $775K) has to fill his spot, the net savings aren’t enough to really give them many more spending options this summer. Add that to the fact he’d carry a dead cap charge of $1.167MM in 2024-25 and it’s not a route they’re going to want to pursue.
For a decade and a half, Bailey has basically been a fixture in the lineup for the Islanders. It’s a tough way to leave but expect them to be quite active in trying to prevent him from suiting up for a 16th season with the franchise.
Re-Sign Or Replace Mayfield
One of the things that Lamoriello needs more cap space to do this summer is to re-sign defenseman Scott Mayfield. When former GM Garth Snow signed Mayfield to a five-year contract when he barely had 100 career NHL games under his belt, eyebrows were raised. However, the AAV of that agreement – $1.45MM – was low enough to mitigate the risk while giving the blueliner a guaranteed payday after spending a lot of time in the minors.
Let’s just say that the contract worked out splendidly for the Isles. Mayfield has been a steady regular throughout the life of the agreement, averaging just shy of 20 minutes a night over those five seasons. Basically, he has been a top-four defenseman at a cost that is less than what a lot of teams pay their sixth option.
Now that Mayfield is set to hit the open market for the first time, he won’t be a bargain any longer. The 30-year-old has a chance to triple that AAV (or at least come close to doing so), taking him closer to the $4MM mark, a number that would take up the majority of their limited cap room. A right-shot defender, Mayfield will be one of the top options on that side of the ice in free agency.
Mayfield has made it clear that his desire is to remain with the Islanders but if his market price gets too high, New York will need to pivot elsewhere; one way or another, they’ll need to spend on a defender in the coming weeks. But if they can create some extra cap flexibility sooner than later, there’s a good chance that Mayfield will get his wish and stay with the team that drafted him in the second round back in 2011.
Add Scoring Help
While the Islanders added Horvat midseason to try to help their offense, his production dipped upon being acquired as he had just seven goals in 30 regular season games after the swap while only tallying once in six playoff games. The team finished 23rd in scoring despite Brock Nelson having a career year while Anders Lee matched his 28-goal showing from 2021-22; Zach Parise passed the 20-goal mark as well.
The problem is that those were the only players to have at least 20 goals on the season. If the threshold is lowered to 15, only Kyle Palmieri clears that plateau and only sparingly. Yes, injuries to him and Barzal didn’t help but full seasons from those two wouldn’t have moved them into being an above-average team offensively.
This is where freeing up Bailey’s salary could go a long way, assuming the space they have now is earmarked for the back end. If they could use that on a more productive forward (one that would score more than the eight goals that Bailey potted), that would give them at least a small boost. They wouldn’t be able to add a top liner for that money but any upgrade would help. Oliver Wahlstrom – who also battled injury trouble this season – is young enough to still improve and him becoming a 20-goal player would also help.
There are enough pieces here to at least get to becoming a mid-pack team offensively; doing so would likely get them a few more wins which could be enough to push for a top-three seed in the division if all goes well next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Transactions: 5/31/23
The end of May has arrived and we should soon start to see an uptick in moves around the hockey world. There were a handful of minor moves today which are noted here.
- The AHL’s Chicago Wolves announced (Twitter links) the signings of forwards Connor McClennon and Cory Conacher. McClennon received a two-year deal while the length of Conacher’s deal was not disclosed. McClennon, a former prospect of the Flyers, had his second straight 40-plus-goal season in the WHL, notching 46 goals and 46 assists in 64 games, good for eighth in league scoring. The 20-year-old will now get a couple of seasons to try to earn an entry-level deal. As for Conacher, the 33-year-old was limited to just 17 games between two AHL teams this season, collecting 10 points. He has typically been a strong producer in the minors, however, picking up 340 points in 371 games over parts of ten seasons. The Wolves will be operating as an independent AHL franchise next season as they have ended their affiliation with Carolina.
- Conner Roulette is on the move in the WHL as Spokane announced that they’ve acquired the forward from Saskatoon in exchange for a pair of draft picks. The 20-year-old was a fourth-round pick by the Stars in 2021 and picked up 63 points in 60 games for the Blades this season. This acquisition suggests that Roulette will not be signing with Dallas by tomorrow’s deadline and at that point, they will lose his rights.
Snapshots: Hjorth, Trotz, Blue Jackets
As the deadline to sign players with expiring draft rights is tomorrow, the Columbus Blue Jackets will at least lose one player in the process. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports that the Blue Jacket’s fourth-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Eric Hjorth, will not be signed by tomorrow’s deadline.
For the most part, Hjorth has spent most of his playing time since his draft year in the Swedish minor leagues. Most recently, playing in the HockeyAllsvenskan for the HC Vita Hasten, Hjorth scored three goals and six assists in 43 games played this year.
Although most teams are hoping for NHL-bound talent even into the later rounds, it does not appear that Columbus is missing out on a player that is ready for professional hockey in North America. Fortunately for the Blue Jackets, Hjorth is the only player in the organization that had expiring draft rights this season.
Other snapshots:
- In an interview with the press today, Barry Trotz partly explained the draft plan for the Nashville Predators this year. Alex Daugherty of PenaltyBoxRadio, reports that Trotz has told his scouts to “take some swings” and be aggressive in this month’s draft. Although coaching his teams to a relatively “boring” style of hockey, it appears that Trotz may employ a much different tactic as General Manager of the Predators.
- Earlier this week, it was reported that the Blue Jackets were on the edge of hiring the next head coach of the team. Unfortunately, Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch reports that the expectation is the team will not name a new head coach tonight, or at any point tomorrow. The Blue Jackets are still close to making a decision, but it appears that the front office has not yet come to a fully unanimous agreement.
Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings
Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Detroit Red Wings.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Joe Veleno – As one of the higher touted prospects entering the 2018 NHL Draft, Veleno fell to Detroit at 30th overall, using the Vegas Golden Knights selection acquired in the Tomas Tatar trade. In his final season in the QMJHL, Veleno scored 104 points in 59 games, giving Red Wings’ fans a lot of optimism about his future.
Unfortunately, the relationship has been tepid up to this point, as Veleno reached a career-high in points this season, only scoring 20 points in 81 games. Although his offensive numbers have translated poorly from juniors, his play on the defensive side of the puck has actually improved considerably in his career.
Severely lacking in the faceoff dot, Veleno did have 30 takeaways compared to 17 giveaways this season. Throwing 152 hits as well for Detroit this season, Veleno carried a Defensive Point Share of 0.9, one of the highest on the team compared to the number of minutes played. If Detroit plans to cultivate Veleno into a defensive forward, they may need to move him out of the faceoff dot, but they will have ample space to continue his time wearing the Winged Wheel.
Other RFAs: F Matt Luff, D Gustav Lindstrom, F Pontus Andreasson, F Jasper Weatherby, D Seth Barton, D Jared McIsaac, D Wyatt Newpower, G John Lethemon
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Pius Suter – After not receiving a qualifying offer from the Chicago Blackhawks after the 2020-21 season, Suter became an under-the-radar signing for the Red Wings in the 2021-22 offseason. In his first season in Detroit, Suter scored 15 goals and 21 assists, improving on his numbers from the previous year.
Although scoring some big goals for the Red Wings this season, Suter took a dip in several departments this year. Although playing relatively the same amount of games this season, Suter had a 12-point drop in scoring, a 2.5% drop in faceoff percentage, and a 4.9% drop in Corsi For %. 
F Adam Erne – Becoming one of the better depth scorers in Detroit during the 2021-22 season, Erne seemed to be an odd man out for the Red Wings this year. On February 4th, 2023, Detroit placed Erne on waivers, and he would go on to clear one day later. With prospects making the jump to the NHL for the Red Wings, Erne has appeared to become a casualty of the youth movement.
G Alex Nedeljkovic – Acquired in a low-risk trade with the Carolina Hurricanes, Nedeljkovic had a subpar showing in his first season in Detroit. This year, Nedeljkovic had an even worse performance. Clearing waivers on January 16th, Nedeljkovic played in nine games prior, producing a 2-4-2 record, carrying a .880 SV% and a 3.88 GAA. Getting a second chance in March, Nedelkovic improved, posting a 2-2-0 record, and a .920 SV% with a 2.33 GAA.
Other UFAs: F Alex Chiasson, D Robert Hagg, D Jordan Oesterle, G Magnus Hellberg, D Mark Pysyk, F Dylan McLaughlin, F Danny O’Regan, F Chase Pearson, G Victor Brattstrom
Projected Cap Space
Hoping to be on the back end of a rebuilding effort, the Red Wings will have $30.66MM available to them this summer. With 16 players projected on the roster next season, Detroit has ample availability to get creative.
Expectedly, many of the available roster spots will be taken up by some of the team’s many prospects, but the Red Wings will have the ability to shop at the high end of the free-agent market this offseason.
Whether Steve Yzerman weaponizes his cap space by acquiring contracts and draft capital, or by making an acquisition to significantly improve the team, the financials included in any transaction will not be a factor for the Red Wings this summer.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
East Notes: Rangers, Holl, Maple Leafs
Already a day after his removal as the head coach of the Nashville Predators, John Hynes has plenty of interest from teams around the NHL. Per Mollie Walker of the New York Post, it appears that the New York Rangers have been given permission to interview Hynes for their head coaching vacancy.
The Rangers have already been heavily linked to Peter Laviolette, but with another veteran head coach now on the open market, it is only natural that the Rangers continue to do their due diligence. Having been a head coach in the NHL for the last nine seasons, Hynes fits the mold of an established coach that the Rangers appear to be after in their search.
In his first five years behind the bench of an NHL team, Hynes took the New Jersey Devils to a 150-159-45 record, appearing in the playoffs once during the 2017-18 season, losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. After his ouster in New Jersey, Hynes was hired by the Predators prior to the 2019-20 season.
In his four seasons in Nashville, Hynes coached the Predators to the playoffs three times, losing in the first round each year. After all was said and done in Nashville, Hynes held a 134-95-18 record with the Predators.
Other notes:
- In a report today from the Toronto Star, Kevin McGran reports that Justin Holl would like to return to the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. However, Holl’s agent, Brian Bartlett, recognizes that significant turnover is likely coming to the Maple Leafs’ roster this summer, and Holl could very well be an odd man out. Although providing good physical energy to Toronto’s bottom-four defensemen highlighted by his 139 blocks and 151 hits, Holl lacked mightily in the possession game with 28 takeaways compared to 56 giveaways.
- Confirming last week that the General Manager of the St.Louis Blues, Doug Armstrong, did not have an out clause in his contract to join the Maple Leafs as General Manager, Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest reports that Toronto never asked the Blues for permission to speak with Armstrong. Today, the Maple Leafs found their head of the front office by hiring Brad Treliving.
Seattle Kraken Extend Ron Francis
The Seattle Kraken, fresh off an exciting playoff run in just their second season, have rewarded general manager Ron Francis with a contract extension. The deal will keep him locked up through 2026-27.
Kraken co-owner Samantha Holloway released a statement:
Ron has done remarkable work over the last four years and deserves this recognition. He has built a tremendous team, putting Seattle hockey on the map. He is building for long term success and is dedicated to our city, our fans, and our community.
Francis was brought on well before the Kraken hit the ice in 2021, and has helped shape the entire Kraken organization. His guidance led the expansion draft process, hired Dave Hakstol, and created the group that was a game away from the Western Conference Finals this year.
While there have been criticisms of how he went about certain aspects of expansion, the Kraken far exceeded many expectations, and Seattle already appears to be a critical market for the NHL.
Recent acquisitions of players like Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, and Eeli Tolvanen have taken the team’s offensive performance to a new level, and young players like Matty Beniers appear to be headed for long-term success.
It’s hard to argue with that progress, and obviously, the ownership group felt the same. Francis will be in place for several years, trying to take the Kraken even further.
Vancouver Canucks Agree To Terms With Jett Woo
The Vancouver Canucks have completed some offseason business, agreeing to terms with Jett Woo on a new one-year, two-way contract. The team did not reveal any financial details, but Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV reports that it is worth $775K at the NHL level and $100K in the AHL.
Woo, 22, was picked 37th overall by the Canucks in 2018 but, to this point, has yet to play in an NHL game. The young defenseman suited up for 68 regular season games with the Abbotsford Canucks this season, scoring seven goals and 21 points while racking up 96 penalty minutes.
While defensemen often take longer to develop, several other second-round picks from his draft class have significantly impacted their respective organizations. Players like Alexander Romanov, Sean Durzi, Martin Fehervary, and Calen Addison were all picked after Woo in 2018.
Still, there’s plenty of time for him to reach that next level. A one-year deal doesn’t afford much security, but Woo will be a restricted free agent again next summer, still under Vancouver control.
Toronto Maple Leafs Hire Brad Treliving
The rather short courting period is over, and Brad Treliving is now officially the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The move was announced today with a statement from team president Brendan Shanahan:
I’m very pleased to welcome Brad into the Maple Leafs organization. Brad brings a wealth of knowledge from his years of experience as a general manager and hockey executive in Calgary, Arizona and beyond. He has earned tremendous respect amongst his peers throughout his years in the NHL and has built excellent relationships at all levels within the game. We are confident that Brad’s leadership and strategic vision will elevate the Maple Leafs in our continued pursuit of a championship.
Treliving replaces the outgoing Kyle Dubas, fired by the Maple Leafs just before his contract expired this summer. The former Calgary GM released his own statement on the new role:
I am very excited and honored to join the Toronto Maple Leafs as general manager. I would like to thank Brendan, MLSE and its Board for their support throughout this process. I’m thrilled to join an Original Six team and recognize how much the Maple Leafs mean to this community. This is a very exciting day for my family and I.
The team will introduce Treliving to the media tomorrow morning, but he immediately takes over as the 18th GM in club history, and has a huge list of important items to get to this summer. Auston Matthews and William Nylander are both eligible to sign extensions on July 1, as they enter their last seasons under contract before unrestricted free agency. Ten other roster regulars are pending UFAs, including names like Ryan O’Reilly and Michael Bunting who should have plenty of interest on the open market.
There’s also the issue of coaching, as he inherits Sheldon Keefe after another disappointing playoff exit, but without upstart assistant Spencer Carbery who took a position with the Washington Capitals. Reports have emerged today that Keefe may not actually be on the chopping block, though that has been said many times just before a dismissal is made.
Looming over all of that is a growing sentiment (at least among fans) that the core group of Maple Leafs is not built for playoff success. Matthews, Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares cost the team nearly $40MM against the cap every year but have won just a single second-round game in their time with the Maple Leafs. A no-movement clause kicks in for Marner this offseason, and even more money would have to be shelled out to retain Matthews and Nylander.
It could be a dramatic few weeks in Toronto, though Treliving should be used to that. He’s the GM that had to watch two 100-point players walk out the door last offseason, when Johnny Gaudreau left for Columbus, and Matthew Tkachuk essentially forced a trade to Florida. Many praised the manager for making the best of a bad situation by landing Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar, but Calgary took a noticeable step back while Tkachuk has just led the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final.
If another massive trade is on the horizon for Treliving, Maple Leafs fans will have to hope he’s on the right side of it this time.
Edmonton Oilers Acquire; Sign Jayden Grubbe
3:07 PM: Shortly thereafter, the Oilers announced that Grubbe has signed a three-year entry-level contract with the organization. The deal will run until the end of the 2025-26 NHL season. The contract will also carry an AAV of $925K in the NHL, and an AAV of $80K in the AHL.
12:04 PM: With tomorrow’s deadline approaching for many expiring draft rights, a few last-minute dealings may be made. The Edmonton Oilers have done just that, acquiring Jayden Grubbe from the New York Rangers in exchange for a 2023 fifth-round pick. If not signed by tomorrow evening, Grubbe’s rights would no longer belong to the Oilers.
The fact that they made this trade suggests that an entry-level contract will soon follow, though it has not yet been announced. Grubbe, 20, was a third-round pick of the Rangers in 2021 but still hasn’t taken the jump to elite production in the junior level, despite his NHL size.
In 2021-22 he had just 14 goals and 35 points in 68 games, and while this year was better—18 goals and 67 points in 64 games—it may still not have been enough to make the Rangers interested in offering him a deal.
That, or perhaps the Alberta native didn’t see a future for himself in the Rangers organization. He’ll now get a chance to sign closer to home, and start his professional career with the Oilers minor league system.
Standing 6’3″, Grubbe has shown some flashes, but has a long way to go before making an impact at the NHL level. The fact that the Rangers landed a fifth-round pick for him is rather impressive, given how close they were to losing him for nothing.
From the Oilers perspective, this may have been their best chance at landing the young forward. Should Grubbe’s rights expire, he could re-enter the draft. If they were willing to spend a fifth (or higher) on him anyway, it makes sense to do the deal ahead of tomorrow’s deadline.
Carolina Hurricanes To Explore Trade Market “Pretty Heavily”
The Carolina Hurricanes had a great year, ruined by “one bad week,” as head coach Rod Brind’Amour put it today. The club won 52 games, cruised through the first two rounds against the New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils, dropping just three games, and seemed poised to compete for the Stanley Cup. Four straight losses to the Florida Panthers turned the good vibes into a concerning tone, and will force them to reconsider what comes next.
Today, speaking with Brind’Amour at the season-ending press conference, general manager Don Waddell explained that the Hurricanes will explore the trade market “pretty heavily” before free agency opens a month from now.
That’s nothing new for the veteran GM.
Since taking over the day-to-day operations in 2018, the list of players Waddell has acquired through trade is extensive—and impressive. Dougie Hamilton, Jordan Martinook, Nino Niederreiter, Erik Haula, James Reimer, Joel Edmundson, Vincent Trocheck, Sami Vatanen, Brady Skjei, Max Domi, Brent Burns, Max Pacioretty, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Shayne Gostisbehere have all been brought in.
They even took a shot at trying to sign Adam Fox, though he would eventually spurn them as well, waiting to get to his preferred New York destination.
While not every member of that group has been successful in Carolina, it’s a testament to the creativity and courage that Waddell has when discussing trades. It also reflects how well their scouting and development system has worked over the years, churning out assets to swap while continuing to produce NHL-quality talent for the roster.
Pacioretty, for instance, was a home run cut that whiffed this year. He was acquired for nothing, as the Vegas Golden Knights needed to clear cap space, and had the potential to be a high-end goal scorer for the club. But two Achilles injuries would limit him to just five games (and three goals).
Waddell admitted today that there is interest in re-signing the pending UFA, but the team has to “make sure [they] don’t get caught counting on something that isn’t there.” It’s unclear when Pacioretty will be ready to play hockey and what kind of impact he can make if he returns.
With significant cap space to use but considerable gaps in the current roster, it should be a wildly entertaining offseason from the Hurricanes. Given the team still carries nine picks in this year’s draft, including their first-rounder, there could be fireworks on the horizon.