NHL Trade Deadline Trends
With two (albeit minor) trades today, it seems as if the annual pre-NHL Trade Deadline flurry of activity is underway. NHL analytics guru Rob Vollman was ready for it yesterday, releasing some new, interesting statistics related to trade deadline trends. With the last day to make deals this season coming up on Monday, February 26th, these correlations may indicate what we can expect in the coming weeks.
Vollman’s first chart shows the distribution of deals made in the month leading up to the trade deadline. On average, there have been close to 41 trades in the month leading up to the deadline since 2005. There tends to be nearly a trade per day beginning 30 days prior to the deadline and going throughout the month, with the numbers increasing exponentially in the final three days. In 2016-17, there were five trades made in the month of January, which slowed down the early February pace somewhat. However, deals came with a more torrid pace beginning in the middle of the month, leading to a total of 41 trades made in the month – on par with the trend over the last decade plus. On average, one can expect 12 trades over the next month leading up to 29 swaps over the final two days prior and deadline day combined. On the 26th, it would be reasonable to see more than 20 trades made, as that has been the trend of late.
So who will be making those deals? Vollman’s second chart shows the frequency that each NHL team has made trades since 2005. The Anaheim Ducks stand out as having made far more deals in that time than any other team in the league, including quite a few deals prior to deadline day. Could the Ducks make a deal this deadline season? Of course, although GM Bob Murray and company may need some more clarity on the Western Conference playoff picture before deciding to be buyers or sellers. The last-place Arizona Coyotes, also common deal-makers, aren’t in that position, but with no impending free agent rentals outside of Brad Richardson, Luke Schenn, and maybe Antti Raanta, there may not be many trade options for GM John Chayka unless he makes some bigger splashes. Eastern Conference contenders Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Washington have all been known to make a few trades, so don’t expect anything different this season. On the other hand, the Red Wings, Stars, and Predators have a history of being hesitant to make moves. If Dallas does make a deal, expect it to come early, as they have far more trades made earlier in February than at the deadline. Conversely, the Avalanche often wait until the last minute, which should be no different in 2017-18 with Colorado being a team that could benefit from a clear look at the Western race.
The trading mania is about to begin, so even if John Ramage, Jeff Zatkoff, or even Anthony Duclair don’t interest you, don’t fret, more moves are on their way.
Minor Transactions: 1/21/18
After a 13-game schedule on Saturday, the NHL has five games scheduled today, including the Vegas Golden Knights against the Carolina Hurricanes this afternoon. If the expansion Golden Knights come away with a victory, they will pass the Tampa Bay Lightning in the standings as the best team in hockey. In the meantime, keep an eye out for roster moves:
- The Detroit Red Wings announced they have recalled defenseman Joe Hicketts from the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL today. The team recalled the diminutive Hicketts after defenseman Trevor Daley suffered a lower-body injury. Despite being 5-foot-8, 180 pounds, Hicketts has proven to be a one of the Griffins most physical players and many have felt deserves to be getting playing time with the struggling Red Wings. How much playing time he will get is unknown, but the 21-year-old undrafted free agent has two goals and six assists in 43 games this season.
- CapFriendly also reported that after activating forward J.T. Compher off of injured reserve Saturday, the Colorado Avalanche also placed forward Sven Andrighetto on injured reserve with a lower-body injury to make room for him. The 24-year-old Andrighetto has missed seven games and hasn’t played since Dec. 31.
- The Athletic’s Scott Powers tweets that the Chicago Blackhawks have assigned defenseman Gustav Forsling to the Rockford IceHogs of the AHL. The 21-year-old defenseman has been with the team all season, having played in 41 games. He has three goals and 10 assists, but needs to build his confidence, according to Chicago Sun-Times reporter Mark Lazerus. The move opens a spot for forward Artem Anisimov to return to Chicago’s lineup. Anisimov has missed the team’s last 10 games with an upper-body injury.
Injury Updates: Devils, Senators, Red Wings
The New Jersey Devils took some lumps during Saturday’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers. The team lost goaltender Keith Kinkaid 14 minutes into the game to a groin injury. Kinkaid, who was already filling in for the ill Cory Schneider, had already given up three goals in the first period and was likely in danger of being pulled. However, the team was saved by emergency backup Ken Appleby, who played 46 minutes of shutout hockey in his NHL debut. Kinkaid was placed on injured reserve today, along with forward Brian Gibbons, who broke his thumb after blocking a shot in the same game, according to TSN’s Amanda Stein.
Gibbons has been a success story in New Jersey this year. After two partial seasons with Pittsburgh in 2013-14 and Columbus the following year, Gibbons had trouble finding an NHL job and played the past two years in the AHL, including a 16-goal season for the Albany Devils last year with no promotion. However, he made the Devils squad this year and has already played in a career-high 45 games so far with solid numbers of 12 goals and 11 assists.
As for the goaltending situation, Appleby is currently the only healthy goaltender on New Jersey’s roster. However, The Record’s Andrew Gross reports that Schneider, who has missed two of the last three games with a stomach illness, practiced today, suggesting he might be close to a return. The Devils play Monday against the Detroit Red Wings. There is no update on how much time either Kinkaid or Gibbons will miss.
- CapFriendly reported that the Ottawa Senators placed center Jean-Gabriel Pageau on injured reserve last night with an upper-body injury and is expected to miss a few games. The Senators will likely rely on youngster Filip Chlapik to replace him. Despite being considered a likely trade candidate at the upcoming trade deadline, the 25-year-old center has been struggling to produce offensively as he has just six goals and nine assists in 42 games this year. His strength is as a face-off specialist, where he has a 53.1 percent success rate (282 face-offs won out of 531).
- The Detroit Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill’s gave an update today on some injured players. Blashill said the team will be without defenseman Trevor Daley on Monday and Tuesday and is the veteran blueliner is questionable for Thursday. He suffered a lower-body injury in Saturday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes. Forward Luke Glendening, who hasn’t played in a game since Dec. 20, is out for Monday’s game against New Jersey with a hand injury, but is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers. Blashill added that wing Justin Abdelkader, who has already missed three games with a lower-body injury, is a possibility to return for Thursday’s game, while center Darren Helm (lower-body injury) will not be back before the All-Star break.
Penguins A Fitting Trade Partner For Struggling Atlantic Squads
The Pittsburgh Penguins already acquired an Atlantic player when they acquired center Riley Sheahan from the Detroit Red Wings earlier this year. Could GM Jim Rutherford double-dip into the division for yet another center? There are plenty of options available.
As everyone knew they would, the Penguins have rebounded from some serious early season struggles and are back in the playoff picture. With 53 points, the Pens have tied up the New York Rangers and the two teams currently hold wild card berths. However, the Philadelphia Flyers, New York Islanders, and Carolina Hurricanes are mere points behind and all have games in hand on Pittsburgh. In fact, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs are actually last in the Metropolitan Division in points percentage. The Penguins undoubtedly have work to do prior to the NHL Trade Deadline, but this year they need help just to make the playoffs.
The main issue for Pittsburgh continues to come back to third-line center, where nothing has worked this year. Sheahan has struggled on the third line, but has settled in nicely on the fourth line. Injured Carter Rowney is also better suited for an energy line role. Jake Guentzel is a competent pivot, but to have him center the third line is to remove him from his top-six wing spot where he has been so successful. Despite their many attempts, the Penguins still just need to replace Nick Bonino.
Enter the Atlantic Division, home to two of the best teams in hockey as well as four of the worst. The Pens have already dealt with Detroit, sending Scott Wilson and a third-round pick their way for Sheahan. However, there are three more teams willing to sell and with pieces of interest to the Pens. The Montreal Canadiens, who themselves are desperate for help at center, are seemingly ready to move on from career contributor Tomas Plekanec, an impending free agent. The 35-year-old has years of experience and is perhaps the best two-way player on the Montreal roster. A rental deal for Plekanec to go to Pittsburgh has been talked about by many and would be no surprise. A less likely deal, but one that also makes sense is Canadiens forward Paul Byron. Although he provides great value with a cap hit just over $1MM for another season, if the Habs enter 2018-19 with Byron again as even a top-nine center, then they will have not done enough this summer. The team may as well move on now and get a good return from Pittsburgh, who could really use the late bloomers services at a bargain rate through next season. Then there are the Ottawa Senators, who have made it known that they are willing to move just about anyone on their roster. The player of most interest to Pittsburgh is likely Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The 25-year-old center is signed through 2020, but has heard his name on the rumor mill and fits the third line role perfectly. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston even mentioned that the Penguins have been kicking the tires on Pageau. Zack Smith, a similarly skilled player with a similar $3MM+ cap hit, but with greater experience, could also be had. Although the Sens are likely more keen to keep Smith over Pageau, Smith was one of many players recently asked to waive his no-trade clause. Finally, perhaps the crown jewel of available Atlantic centers is Buffalo’s Sam Reinhart. The struggling Sabres have few players of value to offer – and reportedly Reinhart is not one they are willing to part with – but there is no doubt that Rutherford would love to pry the 2014 second overall pick from old friend Jason Botterill in Buffalo. Reinhart has struggled to produce on offense or play well down the middle with the Sabres, but the 22-year-old has the makings of an elite two-way center down the road. In a new city where he faces less pressure to be superstar and top scorer, Reinhart could develop into that defensive-minded top-nine forward that his skill set is best suited for.
There are more than enough options for Rutherford and the Penguins to make a move for yet another center from the Atlantic. The Canadiens, Senators, and Sabres are all floundering and will be sellers looking to make a move. Pittsburgh hasn’t yet traded away all of their prospect and draft pick assets and Rutherford has shown a desire to make moves early and often ahead of the trade deadline. Don’t be shocked if his next newsworthy move is to bring in any of these players to give his team a shot at the postseason and perhaps even a three-peat.
Evening Snapshots: Surging Avs, Daley, Sabres
The same Colorado Avalanche who had the worst record in the NHL by a long mile last season and still couldn’t get the top pick in the draft have won nine consecutive games following a 3-1 victory over the Rangers Saturday afternoon. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers writes that in addition to the sudden turn of events, center Nathan MacKinnon is in the Hart Trophy conversation and head coach Jared Bednar is making quite the case for the Adams, an award many thought Vegas’ Gerard Gallant had already won. Chambers continues:
A year ago at this time, MacKinnon was having the worst season of his career and somewhat embarrassed to represent the Avalanche at the All-Star Game. And fans were calling for Bednar’s firing just five months after he was hired. Colorado was 13-30-2 at the time.
Along with Vegas’ performance this season, the Avalanche’s sudden surge is one of hockey’s best stories of the 2017-18 season and reveals how the league’s parity can change a team’s fortunes in such a short amount of time. The nine-game winning streak is tied for the longest in team history.
- MLive’s Ansar Khan tweets that the Detroit Red Wings’ Trevor Daley left the Red Wings-Hurricanes game with a lower body injury sustained during the first period of play. Though the Red Wings are sliding further away from a playoff spot, the news is significant since Daley was one of many Red Wings named as possible trade by the Detroit News’ John Niyo but a major injury would certainly derail any chances of a deal. Daley hasn’t exactly lit up the scoresheet for Detroit, but his presence with the back-to-back champion Pittsburgh Penguins and smooth skating make him an intriguing target for teams seeking depth and experience.
- The Buffalo News’ Bucky Gleason questions Sabres bench boss Phil Housley’s analysis following a 7-1 drubbing by the Dallas Stars. Wondering how Housley could have labeled the early part of a blowout as “pretty good hockey,” Gleason points out that the team was booed off the ice while adding that the Sabres looked “uninterested” from the opening faceoff. In what has been a challenging season for the Sabres, Gleason believes that the performance is another indicator that Housley “appears to be in over his head.” Gleason doesn’t stop there, blasting everyone from ownership to the idea that tanking would actually bring the Sabres a winner. The fans, Gleason writes, are being taken advantage of by an organization that appears no closer to the playoffs or escaping the hockey wilderness.
Morning Notes: Crawford, Trade Bait, Green
The Chicago Blackhawks are sitting at 50 points in the standings, but somehow find themselves in last place in the Central Division. Their 22-17-6 record would be good enough for fourth in the Atlantic and fifth in the Pacific, but unfortunately they find themselves playing in a division where all seven teams have positive goal differentials. Now, even as they struggle to climb the Central ladder, they could lose one of their most important players for the rest of the year.
Corey Crawford is currently on injured reserve, and Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the goaltender is suffering from vertigo-like symptoms. It’s not the first time symptoms like this have surfaced for Crawford, who dealt with them in 2016 as well. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote yesterday that coach Joel Quenneville believed last week that Crawford would return, but Lazerus claims things have complicated since then. The Blackhawks resume their schedule on Saturday, when they will take on the New York Islanders.
- TSN’s Frank Seravalli has updated his Trade Bait board, with Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Michael Grabner, Jack Johnson, Nick Holden and Aaron Dell all joining the list. The emphasis on New York Rangers’ players is clear, with Seravalli writing that they’re a “team to watch” heading into the trade deadline. The Rangers are in a playoff spot currently, but are stuck in the middle of a super-competitive Metropolitan Division and could fall out of the race with a bad week or two. If the team doesn’t believe they can really make an impact in the playoffs, the distinct lack of sellers on the market could make them consider moving some of their expiring pieces.
- Mike Green has not been asked to waive his trade protection yet by GM Ken Holland, but Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports on TSN’s Insider Trading that when he’s eventually asked, the Detroit Red Wings will be willing to eat some of his salary to get a deal done. LeBrun notes Tampa Bay as a possible fit for the powerplay specialist, though is quick to note that no discussions have been had just yet.
Minor Transactions: 1/13/18
With several teams ending their bye weeks, Saturday is once again shaping up to be a busy day in the NHL with nine games on tap. Here is where we’ll keep tabs on the minor roster moves of the day.
- Following their loss to Vancouver on Friday, the Blue Jackets announced (Twitter link) that they have sent winger Tyler Motte and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo to AHL Cleveland. Motte has spent the bulk of the season on the fourth line in Columbus but should be in line for more playing time in the minors while Korpisalo’s reassignment has been classified as a conditioning stint. He has made just two starts at the NHL level since December 2nd but has had a couple of appearances with Cleveland already this month after being sent down earlier in the month. With Columbus on their bye, both will likely be recalled next week.
- The Capitals announced that they have returned winger Travis Boyd to Hershey of the AHL. His stint with the big club was short-lived as he was only recalled yesterday and he did not play in their game against Carolina. Boyd has been productive at the minor league level this season, tallying 27 points (8-19-27) in 37 games. Washington has also returned winger Jakub Vrana and defenseman Madison Bowey to Hershey, via the AHL’s transactions page. The moves come as no surprise with the Caps on their bye as they have been shuffling the two back and forth on a regular basis recently to save a little bit of cap room.
- With the Lightning entering their bye, the team has sent goaltender Louis Domingue back to AHL Syracuse, per a team release. Domingue has made one appearance with Tampa Bay since being recalled, earning a victory over Detroit. That is his lone win this season as he struggled considerably in six appearances with Arizona earlier this season. CapFriendly notes via Twitter that Connor Ingram has been recalled to take Domingue’s spot and keep the team at the mandatory minimum goalies on the roster.
- The Stars have recalled defenseman Dillon Heatherington from Texas of the AHL, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link). The 2013 second-round pick has yet to play in an NHL game. He is in his third professional season and has picked up three goals and ten assists in 39 minor league contests so far this season.
- The Canucks announced via Twitter that they have assigned winger Nikolay Goldobin to AHL Utica. The 22-year-old has been reasonably productive this season with four points in 14 games but saw just 6:32 of ice time last night as Sven Baertschi‘s return dropped him down the depth chart. He’ll be in line for much more playing time with the Comets where he has averaged more than a point per game (19 points in 18 contests) so far this season.
- After losing both Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader to injuries during today’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, MLive’s Ansar Khan reports the Detroit Red Wings have recalled Dominic Turgeon from the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL this evening for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks. The 21-year-old center was a third-round pick in 2014 and will be making his first trip to Detroit. He has nine goals and 14 assists in 23 games for the Griffins this year.
Red Wings Notes: Howard, Larkin, Holland
MLive’s Ansar Khan reports that Detroit Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard is slated to return for Saturday’s contest against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Howard was shelved with a lower body injury but Detroit’s bye week was a fortuitous opportunity for the veteran net minder to recover. Howard told DetroitRedWings.com’s Dana Wakiji that he’ll be ready for tomorrow’s game. In his last six starts, Howard has been 4-2 with a .952 save percentage, and a main reason the Red Wings have seen their fortunes trend up. Though they’re still out of the playoff hunt (and will stay that way most likely), Howard has been excellent for a team short on defense and elite talent.
- Khan takes questions in a mailbag next, indicating that he doesn’t expect any hitches as they did when Andreas Athanasiou held out as an RFA. Khan continues, writing that the Red Wings have $10MM with Mike Green and Petr Mrazek set to be free agents. With the cap rising as well, Khan doesn’t foresee any issues getting the important younger players, namely Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Athanasiou. Martin Frk and Tyler Bertuzzi are both in their final year of a contract but will come at a lower price than the aforementioned three.
- In another question, Khan writes that Henrik Zetterberg might have one season left before a new captain will have to be named. He sees Justin Abdelkader being the next Red Wing to wear the C while Larkin a future captain as well. Larkin was an alternate captain while playing in the World Juniors last May, but it wouldn’t be crazy to think that Larkin could be the next in line. Steve Yzerman was named captain at the ripe old age of 21, which just happens to be Larkin’s current age.
- The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James has a mailbag of her own, and gives her thoughts on the future of general manager Ken Holland. She believes he will still be around, either in the GM chair or as an adviser. She also believes that Larkin will be the first of the three young building blocks (Larkin-Mantha-Athanasiou) to be re-signed by Detroit.
Red Wings Will Stand Pat Or Sell At Deadline
- The Detroit News’ Bob Wojnowski guesses that the writing is on the wall for the Red Wings. All that’s left to decipher is who the architect will be for the inevitable rebuild: Ken Holland or someone else. Wojnowski writes that the Red Wings are no longer the elite team that will make a yearly playoff visit, but at least have some hope in the futures of Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, and Anthony Mantha. Wojnowski quotes Holland as saying the Wings will either “stay pat or sell” at the deadline. Holland adds that he’s not in it for a rebuild (something he’s been consistently saying) and his job is to keep the team competitive. But he’s also not naive:
2018 All-Star Rosters
The NHL released the rosters for this year’s All-Star game in Tampa Bay, leading to an inevitable onslaught of discussion over who missed out and who didn’t deserve to go. The event will take place on January 27-28th. The full rosters can be found below:
Atlantic Division:
F Steven Stamkos – Tampa Bay Lightning (captain)
F Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
F Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs
F Aleksander Barkov – Florida Panthers
F Brad Marchand – Boston Bruins
F Jack Eichel – Buffalo Sabres
D Victor Hedman – Tampa Bay Lightning
D Erik Karlsson – Ottawa Senators
D Mike Green – Detroit Red Wings
G Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning
G Carey Price – Montreal Canadiens
Head Coach: Jon Cooper
Metropolitan Division:
F Alex Ovechkin – Washington Capitals (captain)
F Taylor Hall – New Jersey Devils
F Sidney Crosby – Pittsburgh Penguins
F Josh Bailey – New York Islanders
F John Tavares – New York Islanders
F Claude Giroux – Philadelphia Flyers
D Seth Jones – Columbus Blue Jackets
D Noah Hanifin – Carolina Hurricanes
D Kris Letang – Pittsburgh Penguins
G Henrik Lundqvist – New York Rangers
G Braden Holtby – Washington Capitals
Head Coach: Barry Trotz
Central Division:
F Patrick Kane – Chicago Blackhawks
F Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado Avalanche
F Blake Wheeler – Winnipeg Jets
F Brayden Schenn – St. Louis Blues
F Eric Staal – Minnesota Wild
F Tyler Seguin – Dallas Stars
D P.K. Subban – Nashville Predators (captain)
D Alex Pietrangelo – St. Louis Blues
D John Klingberg – Dallas Stars
G Pekka Rinne – Nashville Predators
G Connor Hellebuyck – Winnipeg Jets
Head Coach: Peter Laviolette
Pacific Division:
F Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers (captain)
F Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary Flames
F Brock Boeser – Vancouver Canucks
F James Neal – Vegas Golden Knights
F Rickard Rakell – Anaheim Ducks
F Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles Kings
D Drew Doughty – Los Angeles Kings
D Brent Burns – San Jose Sharks
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Arizona Coyotes
G Jonathan Quick – Los Angeles Kings
G Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas Golden Knights
Head Coach: Gerard Gallant