Predators Claim Derek Grant Off Waivers
The Nashville Predators have added to their forward depth, claiming center Derek Grant off waivers from the Buffalo Sabres.
The Sabres waived Grant on Tuesday morning. Grant has just three assists in 35 NHL games this season. That marks a career-high for NHL games played, as Grant is a tremendous minor league forward but a fringe NHLer. Grant scored 27 goals and 45 points in just 36 games in the AHL last year. Overall, he has six assists in 75 NHL games.
The Predators are currently without forwards James Neal and Colin Wilson, and could use some depth up front. It’s also a good chance for Grant to make an impression, as he could find regular NHL work next season with 23 more jobs available due to the Vegas expansion.
As mentioned, Grant has just three assists this season so it’s not a big loss for the Sabres. As our Zach Leach wrote yesterday when Grant was placed on waivers, Buffalo is better served playing their own home-grown young talent rather than mediocre veterans.
Grant signed a one-year, $575K contract with the Sabres on July 2, 2016. He’ll be a UFA at the end of this season.
Most Man-Games Missed At Midway Point
While the headlines follow teams missing multiple major contributors to injury – case in point the resilient 2016-17 Montreal Canadiens, whose injury issues have been well-documented – there’s an argument to be made that losing a greater amount of depth players is in fact more detrimental to a team’s success, even if it doesn’t garner as much attention. ESPN’s Matthew Coller examined the amount of ice time, in man-game minutes, lost this season due to injury and the resulting success or failure of the most injured and most healthy teams. Despite the story line, the Canadiens only rank tenth right now in missed minutes, perhaps providing some explanation to how they have maintained their winning ways despite being banged up. Other teams have not been so lucky.
Of the five most injured teams in the first half of 2016-17, four have drastically underachieved, even though you might not suspect that they have had such bad injury struggles. At the top of the list is the Detroit Red Wings, whose historic playoff streak is in extreme jeopardy as they sit in the basement of the Atlantic Division through 40 games. Two of their season’s biggest bright spots have also been two of their largest injury concerns, as 11 games were missed by leading scorer Thomas Vanek, signed to a one-year “show me” deal this summer, and resurgent goalie Jimmy Howard is on the shelf for the second time already and expected to be out until February. Add in a long, ongoing absence of Darren Helm and off-and-on issues with defenseman Brendan Smith among other injuries, and the Red Wings lead the league with 3,122 minutes missed. Few have pointed to injuries as the main reason for Detroit’s dismal showing, but there’s evidence to express that it may be the primary influence. Backing up the claim are the struggles of the Buffalo Sabres, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets as well, all of whom have suffered noteworthy injuries, but also an excess of depth injuries as well. These four teams are all performing below what was expected of them in 2016-17, and injuries may be the prime source of blame. Only the Edmonton Oilers have bucked the trend, as they have been able to survive numerous serious injuries to their defenseman and are having their best season in recent memory with the second most man-games missed in the entire league.
Aside from the Washington Capitals (who have been impossibly healthy with just 10 games and about 170 minutes missed) and San Jose Sharks at #1 and #2, two teams who seemingly have not had issues with major injuries in recent years, a lack of man-games missed can certainly make a case as a vital ingredient to the success of overachieving teams this season. Rounding out the top five are the Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Carolina Hurricanes, all of whom have lost less than 1,000 minutes to injury and all of whom are surely big surprises thus far in 2016-17. No one could have expected the Blue Jackets to hold the NHL’s best record at this point, nobody guessed that the Senators would be contenders in the Atlantic, and many picked the Hurricanes to be the worst team in the league. Even though Ottawa has seen Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone all miss time and Carolina just got Jordan Staal and Elias Lindholm back from injury, the overall roster-wide health is what has kept these teams afloat. All three rosters could easily be exposed by a string of long-term injuries, but they have been able to make it this far without encountering such loss and it has boosted them to the positions they are currently in.
Many teams have had recent success with top-heavy lineups containing a handful of stars and relative no-names as filler (read: Chicago Blackhawks), and there’s no reason to believe that doesn’t work. However, these injury trends seem to show that missing time as a whole due to injury instead of injuries to individual top players is what can derail a team. A team built with depth in mind can combat the loss of two, three, or four starters, but a top-heavy team can struggle to replace one star, nevertheless multiple full-time contributors. The man-games missed to success correlation is an interesting concept for team builders to follow and understand. It’s a risk-reward scenario, and several teams this season are showing the extremes of success and failure as a function of injury.
Minor Transactions: 1/10/17
In the midst of a four-game losing streak, the Tampa Bay Lightning continue to shake up their roster. After sending Erik Condra and Adam Erne back down to the AHL yesterday, the team has recalled forward Gabriel Dumont from the Syracuse Crunch today. The 26-year-old center is in his first season with Tampa Bay, after signing a deal with the team this summer, but has yet to make his Lightning debut. It is expected that he will get the opportunity to do so when the Bolts return to action on Thursday night against the Buffalo Sabres. Dumont has not played an NHL games since February 2015, and in total has a goal and two assists in 18 NHL games with his former team, his hometown Montreal Canadiens. Dumont has ten points in 19 games for the Crunch so far in 2016-17.
Meanwhile, Tampa also made a move in net, sending down backup Adam Wilcox and replacing him with highly-touted prospect Kristers Gudlevskis. This could signal the end of Andrei Vasilevskiy ‘s long run without a rest. Since Ben Bishop went down with injury, Vasilevskiy has started ten games in a row and the Lightning have allowed six goals in three of those last four starts. Wilcox did not make an appearance in his stint with the team, but considering the diminishing returns of Vasilevskiy, it would seem likely that Gudlevskis gets the chance. The young Latvian keeper has made just one NHL appearance per year in three of the past four seasons, missing out on his annual try in 2014-15 and coming in as a late-game replacement earlier this year. Though a small sample size, Gudlevskis has a stunning .959 save percentage and 1.37 goals against average in those few appearances. Though Vasilevskiy is on a three-day break and Bishop appears close to returning (back at practice today), expect Gudlevskis to get a shot while in Tampa and have his first multi-game NHL season.
Update (4pm CT): Forget all of that about Gudlevskis getting to make an appearance on this trip to Tampa. Less than 12 hours after recalling the minor league goalie, the Lightning have returned him to the Syracuse Crunch. This means that the Bolts coaches liked what they saw out of Bishop today and expect the star keeper to be back in action sooner than predicted. Heading back to the AHL with Gudlevskis is defenseman Slater Koekkoek, the 2012 first-rounder who is still trying to carve out a role for himself with the Lightning. Koekkoek has already far surpassed his career high in games with 29 on the season, but has little to show for it with four assists and a -4 rating. He’s continually been shifted in an out of the lineup and has now been demoted to Syracuse for the eighth time this season.
In other moves:
- The Nashville Predators have promoted forward Pontus Aberg to the NHL squad, as the rookie winger has been nearly a point-per-game player for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals this season. He has already earned nine games with Nashville so far, but has just one goal and one assist to show for it. The Predators hope he can bring his minor league scoring touch to the big leagues and stick around for a longer stint this time around. The 2012 second-round pick has had a strong AHL career, but had not developed a complete enough game for the NHL level until this season, as least in the eyes of GM David Poile.
- As speculated yesterday, the Calgary Flames have recalled defenseman Brett Kulak from the Stockton Heat. In a corresponding move, Tyler Wotherspoon is headed back to the AHL. The 23-year-old Kulak has bounced back and forth this season, but has already played in a career-high 15 NHL contests. He has three assists in that span, and a goal and four assists in 11 games with Stockton. Wotherspoon has been held scoreless in four NHL games this season, and has six points in 20 AHL games so far. The 2011 second-round pick has not developed as the Flames would like and has seen his small role somehow decrease over the past few seasons.
- A day after placing veteran goalie Curtis McElhinney on waivers (and subsequently losing him) and re-calling young Anton Forsberg, the Blue Jackets were forced to promote Joonas Korpisalo today as starter Sergei Bobrovsky is sick and unable to go tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. Forsberg will start tonight’s game, with Korpisalo as the backup.
- The Buffalo Sabres have placed forward Derek Grant on waivers. The journeyman center has played in 35 games already with the Sabres, but has only three assists to show for it. A team still looking for their identity, Buffalo is better served playing their own home-grown young talent rather than mediocre veterans, likely promting Grant’s movement.
- Andrej Nestrasil has cleared waivers and will be assigned to the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers, reports Carolina Hurricanes GM Ron Francis. The Hurricanes have been busy on the waiver wire this season, including both claiming and losing Detroit’s Martin Frk and recently adding former St. Louis Blue Ty Rattie. Given Nestrasil’s age and his decent output in each of the last two seasons, as well as the fact that the only other player on waivers, McElhinney, was claimed, Carolina is lucky that this waiver transaction wasn’t yet another newsworthy one.
- As expected, the Vancouver Canucks have recalled defenseman Andrey Pedan from the Utica Comets of the AHL. With Ben Hutton joing the laundry list of out or injured Canucks blue liners, Pedan can expect an extended stay in Vancouver, which needs all the defensive depth it can get right now.
- With T.J. Oshie ready to return to the Capitals lineup, Washington has returned forwards Paul Carey and Liam O’Brien to the AHL’s Hershey Bears. While both forwards are having good seasons in the AHL with 25 and 18 points respectively in 28 games apiece, neither has managed to turn minor league success into any NHL production. The duo have combined for four points total in 42 combined games over the past four seasons.
More to come
O’Reilly Returns To Lineup For Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres will welcome center Ryan O’Reilly back to the lineup tonight with the team in Chicago to face the Blackhawks, according to Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News. O’Reilly last played on December 23rd and has missed the last four games after undergoing an emergency appendectomy on December 27th. He was expected at the time to need 10 – 14 days to recover and it appears as if O’Reilly’s return comes slightly ahead of schedule.
O’Reilly currently ranks fourth on the Sabres in scoring with 17 points and his return couldn’t have come at a better time given the recent loss of Johan Larsson for the season. Head coach Dan Bylsma can use O’Reilly against the opposition’s top lines, thus freeing Jack Eichel to match-up against lesser competition.
Buffalo acquired O’Reilly from Colorado prior to the start of the 2015-16 season in a blockbuster deal that also brought forward Jamie McGinn to the Sabres. The Avalanche received Mikhail Grigorenko and defenseman Nikita Zadorov along with prospect J.T. Compher and a 2015 second-round pick in return. O’Reilly led the team in scoring last season with 60 points and posted the second 20-goal season of his seven-year career.
The Sabres went 2 – 2 – 0 in O’Reilly’s absence, sandwiching back-to-back, home-and-home losses to Boston with road wins over Detroit and the New York Rangers. They are tied for last in the Eastern Conference with the New York Islanders and trail the Bruins by eight points for the last guaranteed playoff spot in the Atlantic.
Snapshots: Russell, Eichel, Gilmour
Oilers defenseman Kris Russell is a divisive figure in the hockey world. Stop me if you’ve heard this before.
Russell has five points (all assists) in 31 games with the Oilers, mostly playing on the team’s second pairing with Andrej Sekera. He’s been part of the best Oilers blue-line since 2008, and is considered one of the reasons that the Oilers are sitting in third in the Pacific Division and on pace for a 65-goal improvement in goal differential. The Oilers are 17-7-7 with Russell in the lineup and 2-5-0 without him.
However, hockey fans, executives, and experts are torn on Russell’s impact. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli plans on discussing an extension with Russell’s camp and is on record as being “pretty happy” with Russell. That opinion is not shared by the majority of the analytics community, including Oilers blogger Darcy McLeod. McLeod’s analytical work is respected among the blogging community and appears regularly on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. He took a closer look at the impact that Russell has on teammates, specifically the claims that Russell has a positive effect on “shooting percentage of team mates and zone exits that lead to offensive zone entries.”
Chiarelli has previously mentioned those two micro-stats as evidence for why he likes Russell. McLeod explored Russell’s effect on teammates in his two seasons with Calgary and all his games with the Oilers this season. The full article is well-worth the read. Ultimately, he concludes that the positive effect that Russell had on Flames teammates did not carry over to Edmonton, and that out of the Oilers’ four centers, only Mark Letestu scores better with Russell on the ice, writing that “if Russell excels at zone exits, these exits are not resulting in more goals for the Oilers.” Even Connor McDavid scores nearly a full point less per-60 minutes while sharing the ice with Russell.
McLeod writes that he still believes Russell is a valuable number-four or five defenseman, but doesn’t believe the Oilers should sign him long-term, with Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse, and Brandon Davidson all being left-handed defenders under contract and posting better results than Russell. A one-year, $3MM contract would be acceptable to McLeod, but signing Russell and trading any of the above-mentioned defensemen would be “a downgrade in the quality of the Left Handed Dcorps of the Edmonton Oilers.”
- The second overall pick behind McDavid, Jack Eichel, expressed his disappointment with the way the Sabres’ season has gone so far. Despite the Sabres’ struggles (they’re currently last in the East), Eichel says the team hasn’t given up yet. He told John Vogl that “everyone needs to look in the mirror and we all need to get a lot better. I think I speak for the team in saying that we’re all frustrated with where we’re at, and I don’t think I’m the only person in the locker room that’s not satisfied.” It’s clear that Eichel is also stepping up as a leader in the locker room, and seems like the most-likely candidate to replace Brian Gionta as the next captain of the Sabres.
- Monday marks the 25th anniversary of one of the most infamous trades in NHL history. On January 2, 1992, the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Doug Gilmour in a 10-player trade with the Calgary Flames. The Leafs sent Gary Leeman, Craig Berube, Alexander Godynyuk, Michel Petit, and Jeff Reese to Calgary for Gilmour, Jamie Macoun, Kent Manderville, Ric Nattress, and Rick Wamsley. As with most controversial trades, it was immediately labelled as robbery by the Maple Leafs. In this case, that turned out to be quantifiably true. Sean McIndoe broke down the trade over at Sportsnet, and pointed out that if you remove Gilmour, the trade is just barely a wash for the Flames. But the trade did include Gilmour, who was recently named the 13th-best Maple Leaf of all time. He scored 452 points in 392 games during his first stint with the team, returning for just five shifts before suffering a career-ending injury in 2003.
Johan Larsson Out For Season
In a new report from John Vogl of the Buffalo News, Johan Larsson admits that his season is over. The Buffalo forward dislocated his elbow and wrist on Saturday and had originally just been reported as out for a few weeks. He underwent surgery while in a Boston hospital, and will miss the remainder of the regular season.
The 24-year old Larsson has been a solid contributor for the Sabres the past couple of years, adding some secondary scoring and a strong defensive game. Playing over 16 minutes a night this season, he ranks second among Buffalo forwards in blocked shots and has taken the second most faceoffs on the team.
Larsson was picked in the second round by the Minnesota Wild in 2010 before being included in the trade that brought Jason Pominville west. Pominville would go on to post a 30-goal season for the Wild the following season, while the other player involved in the deal Matt Hackett struggles in the Anaheim minor league system.
Developing Larsson into a solid NHL player is key to scraping any value out of that trade, and it looked like he was well on his way with six goals and eleven points in 36 games this year. That’s only slightly behind Pominville, who only has 14 points this season and has seen his ice-time drastically reduced. There will be no more development this season though, as he’ll rehab his arm and get ready for next season.
Atlantic Notes: Erne, Farnham, Mantha
The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes yesterday, putting them just two points behind the Boston Bruins for the final divisional playoff spot with one game at hand. As they welcome in the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night, they’ll have a new face in the lineup. Adam Erne has been recalled by the team, and likely will make his NHL debut against the Jets. The 2nd round pick (33rd overall) has earned his stripes in the AHL this season and last with 47 points in 90 games. After scoring 86 in his final year of junior, the American-born Erne will look to make an impact at the NHL level.
The callup is likely to replace Bryan Boyle, who left last night’s game with a lower-body injury and did not return.
- The Montreal Canadiens have also made a roster move, bringing up tough-guy Bobby Farnham from the AHL for the second half of their current 7-game road trip. Farnham has played in 64 NHL games and has just ten points and 121 penalty minutes.
- Anthony Mantha is finally showing why he was picked 20th overall in 2013. The big winger has extended his current point streak to six games with a goal in the Centennial Classic in Toronto. That makes it seven points over that stretch, and 14 for the season in 22 games. If he can turn into the dominant power-forward he was projected to be for the Red Wings, perhaps it won’t be too long at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
- After Johan Larsson suffered a dislocated wrist in Thursday’s game against the Boston Bruins, he has remained in a local hospital nursing the injury. Jourdon LaBarber reports that it’s also an elbow injury for Larsson, who will be out “long term” for the Sabres. He’ll travel back to Buffalo with the team on Monday for further evaluation.
Johan Larsson, Josh Gorges Injured
Lost in the shuffle since it occurred in the same period as David Backes‘ more noticeable head injury on Thursday, Johan Larsson also suffered a serious injury when the Buffalo Sabres faced the Boston Bruins two nights ago. Following the Sabres 3-1 loss to the Bruins today, Sabres coach Dan Bylsma revealed that Larsson will be out “weeks” with a dislocated wrist. Larsson took a hard hit from Adam McQuaid in the first period and did not return, due to the injury.
The 24-year-old Larsson has worked his way up through the Sabres’ system and has taken on the greatest role of his young career this season in Buffalo. Larsson was on pace to shatter his career highs, and is still likely to do so. The young forward has six goals and five assists for 11 points in 35 games so far this season. In his first full NHL season in 2015-16, Larsson had just 17 points in 74 games. Even if he misses a few weeks, Larsson will still likely beat 17 points this season if he returns to his top six role upon his return.
Bylsma also added that early indications following the game are that Josh Gorges, who left the game, suffered a hip pointer injury. There has been no official word on the extent of Gorges injury, but the veteran blue liner has already missed time this season with injury. Buffalo continue to struggle to string together wins, and that task will only prove to be more difficult with Larsson and potentially Gorges out of the lineup long term.
David Backes Leaves Game With Head Injury
Boston Bruins forward David Backes was the victim of boarding in tonight’s game against the Buffalo Sabres, as William Carrier hit the veteran with a hard, high shot up against the boards in front of the Bruins bench. The team announced shortly afterward that Backes would not return to the game with an “upper body injury”. Carrier will likely face a suspension or fine for the dirty hit.
Backes has been somewhat of an iron man in his NHL career, playing in 72 games or more in all nine of his seasons as a starter with the St. Louis Blues. However, Backes has also had his fair share of concussions as well, with at least two reported in his NHL tenure. Neither kept Backes out of the St. Louis lineup for very long, but now in Boston and on the wrong side of 30, the concussion symptoms can start to pile up, and the Bruins have to worry about long-term repercussions. While it will be some time before we know the full extent of this concussion, expect the team to be cautious with it’s approach. The Bruins face the Sabres again on Saturday, and then New Jersey, Edmonton, Florida, and Carolina to begin the new year. Although no game has been easy for the underachieving team, this is as good a time as any to give Backes some time off. The return of Frank Vatrano has had an instant impact and he can help to make up for a short-term absence of Backes while he rests and recovers. The last thing that Boston wants is to rush Backes back to action only to end up losing him again later on in the season to post-concussion syndrome. With one of the league’s worst scoring offenses and already missing Matt Beleskey until February, the Bruins cannot afford another long-term absence up front.
On a separate note, Bruins defenseman Adam McQuaid tried to return the favor later in the game by jumping Carrier late in the first period. For the second time in as many games, McQuaid was restrained before he could even throw a real punch. If the NHL wants to ban fighting, they should, but instructing the refs to instead instantly break up fights is not the way to go. McQuaid expressed a similar opinion arguing with the linesman that pulled him away from Carrier. In tying up McQuaid, the refs allowed Carrier to get several punches off that were direct hits to the Bruins defenseman and to which he had no chance to respond. McQuaid required stitches as a result. To add insult to injury, McQuaid was also given an instigator penalty and a ten-minute misconduct. The entire ordeal was handled incorrectly and the NHL needs to look into alternative methods of handling fighting.
Atlantic Notes: Kadri, Alfredsson, Green, Sabres
While Toronto center Nazem Kadri isn’t known for his defensive prowess, he has made considerable strides in his two-way game this season, writes Mark Zwolinski of the Toronto Star. With the Leafs welcoming number one overall pick Auston Matthews into the fold, they wanted to shield him from checking the best players from the opposition which meant that Kadri would have to assume the role.
[Related: Toronto’s Depth Chart]
Already with the reputation of being an agitator, Kadri has quietly been effective at slowing down the opposition this year while also contributing at the offensive end, where he sits third on the team in goals with 12 and fifth in points with 20.
Needless to say, Toronto is certainly pleased with Kadri’s play this year, the first of a six year, $27MM pact signed last season. Has his defensive play been good enough to realistically be considered for the Selke Trophy, awarded to the best defensive forward in the league? That may still be a stretch at this point but if he keeps up this level of two-way play the rest of the way, he’ll certainly garner some attention for that award.
Other notes from the Atlantic:
- It will be a banner-raising night in Ottawa as the Senators will be retiring the jersey of long-time captain Daniel Alfredsson in a pre-game ceremony tonight. Alfredsson sits second in games played in franchise history (one behind Chris Phillips) while he holds the club record for goals, assists, points, and shots on goal, among others. He played for only one other organization in his career, the Red Wings, who are taking on the Sens tonight.
- Detroit defender Mike Green is hoping to return to the lineup late next week, reports MLive’s Ansar Khan. He has missed the last three games with an upper body injury and will likely miss the next three as he has January 7th in mind as a potential return date. Green is Detroit’s highest scoring blueliner this year with 18 points (7-11-18) in 32 games.
- Home ice hasn’t been particularly friendly to the Sabres, notes John Vogl of the Buffalo News. Buffalo is playing in their 38th and final home game of 2016 tonight and have posted just a .500 points percentage in those contests, going 15-15-7. In 17 games at home this year, the Sabres have scored just 35 goals, or 2.06 per night. Only Colorado (34 in 17 games) has scored less in the friendly confines of their own arena.