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Rangers Among Vladislav Gavrikov’s Preferred Destinations

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If Vladislav Gavrikov reaches the open market next week, there will be a high level of mutual interest between him and the Rangers. His preference remains to iron out an extension with the Kings, but if he’s unable to do so, New York is on a “short list of teams he is interested in joining,” writes David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period.

Gavrikov has already been tagged as one of the Rangers’ top free-agent targets as they look to reshape a blue line that’s already undergone major surgery since the beginning of 2024-25. If signed, he would presumably come at the expense of pending RFA K’Andre Miller’s signing rights being traded elsewhere. New York has received strong interest on the trade market regarding the young defender, and with Gavrikov projected to command nearly $8MM per season on a long-term deal, they’d only have around $5MM in cap space left over after signing him with RFA winger William Cuylle in need of a new deal as well.

While Gavrikov’s puck-moving ability may be a step back from Miller’s ceiling, the veteran has been far more consistent over the past few years and offers greater defensive upside. That two-way presence – this past season was his second time hitting 30 points in his NHL career – combined with spectacular impacts and a willingness to get involved in the play physically would give Adam Fox the bona fide No. 2 defenseman and potential long-term partner he’s missed over the last few years with Ryan Lindgren’s decline and subsequent trade.

The Rangers would obviously end up paying a premium for Gavrikov’s services coming off a stellar platform year, but they’re in a position of need. There’s nothing resembling even a fringe first-pairing lefty in the organization, particularly if Miller isn’t re-upped, and Gavrikov has a highly desirable track record with his combination of heavy deployment and good two-way play over his six-year NHL career. Poor possession play has plagued the Rangers throughout the past few seasons, so much so that it may make more sense for new head coach Mike Sullivan to deploy Fox, who routinely boasts above-average possession impacts regardless of who his partner is, on a separate pairing from Gavrikov if he’s brought in.

Still, a long-term agreement with Gavrikov isn’t something the Rangers should rush into. They’ve had to make some undesirable cap dumps in the past few months because of similar moves. They already have two lengthy contracts on the books for defenders – Fox’s rather desirable $9.5MM cap hit through 2029 isn’t much of an issue, but William Borgen’s $4.1MM cap hit through 2030 could be a tricky one if he can’t manage to hold onto a consistent top-four role on the right side with the younger, more dynamic Braden Schneider breathing down his neck entering a contract year.

Lightning’s Nick Perbix Will Test Free Agency

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There will be no extension keeping Lightning defenseman Nicklaus Perbix off the open market before July 1, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports. The 27-year-old will instead look to cash in as the youngest option available among a thin class of right-shot defenders.

Perbix was a sixth-round pick of the Lightning back in 2017. Tampa retained his signing rights through his post-draft season with USHL Omaha and then during a full four NCAA seasons at St. Cloud State, where he won an NCHC regular-season title as a rookie and was named a First Team conference All-Star following his standout point-per-game senior season. That was enough for the 6’4″, 205-lb rearguard to land his entry-level contract with the Bolts.

The Minnesota native has essentially been a full-time NHLer since turning pro in 2022. Aside from a brief AHL stint to make his pro debut following the end of his senior year with St. Cloud State and a pair of minor-league contests the following year, he’s been a fixture on Tampa’s roster with utility up and down the lineup.

While he’s seen deployment as high as first-pairing duties with Victor Hedman, his overall ice time has been limited because he’s played under 100 minutes on special teams units in total over his three-year career. Perbix averaged 15:45 per game with the Bolts as a result. At 5-on-5, his most common partners over the last three years were Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (919:12), Hedman (893:26), and Mikhail Sergachev (570:12), according to Natural Stat Trick. Whether due to his time spent with more skilled partners in Hedman and Sergachev or not, Perbix’s point production has been solid considering his limited even-strength minutes. He’s consistently churned out 20-25 points, avoiding major injury troubles.

Nonetheless, it makes sense that the Lightning aren’t interested in retaining Perbix. He averaged just 14:41 per game last season, making it hard to justify matching the $2.65MM per season he’s projected to receive on a two-year deal on the open market, according to AFP Analytics. He totaled a 13-50–63 scoring line with a +27 rating in 220 games as a Bolt and will likely look to land somewhere where he has more of an opportunity to play both the power play and penalty kill.

Blackhawks Buy Out T.J. Brodie

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June 22: Brodie has cleared unconditional waivers and will have the final season of his contract bought out, Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic confirms. There are no new pending buyouts today.

June 21: The Blackhawks have placed Brodie on unconditional waivers for buyout purposes, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.  In doing so, they’ll be able to buy out the final year of his contract on Sunday, assuming he’s not claimed.

June 18: The Blackhawks will likely buy out defenseman T.J. Brodie when the first window opens later this week, reports Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times. The vast majority of his $3.225MM total compensation for next season was via a $2.45MM signing bonus, which is unaffected by a buyout.

He’ll only see a reduction in his base salary from $775K to $517K, which will be paid out over two years, and he will become an unrestricted free agent. Brodie will still count $3.23MM against the cap for Chicago in 2025-26, savings of $517K on his original $3.75MM cap hit, but will only incur a $258K penalty in 2026-27 before coming off the Hawks’ books.

Brodie, 35, signed a two-year, $7.5MM contract with Chicago in free agency last summer. The $3.75MM cap hit was an understandable expense given his long track record of success as an excellent two-way option in the top four for the Flames and Maple Leafs, but a multi-year commitment raised some eyebrows. Brodie was aging, coming off an underwhelming performance in Toronto in 2023-24 that meant the team had no trouble letting him hit the market, and there were questions about how his declining speed would hold up on a much thinner Blackhawks blue line.

The fears of the deal were realized as Brodie’s 2024-25 season was his worst as an NHLer. He only posted a 2-8–10 scoring line in 54 games, and his defensive impacts declined further following a sharp dropoff with the Leafs the year prior.

While Chicago initially signed him as a support piece for their emerging young defensemen, he was entirely removed from the lineup in March. He didn’t log a single appearance for the club after the trade deadline, serving as a healthy scratch for the final 22 games of the season. That was even after the club traded top righty Seth Jones to the Panthers, and the left-shot Brodie had spent most of the year in a familiar spot on his offside, where he’s spent most of his career.

As it stands, the Blackhawks enter the offseason with established NHLers Alex Vlasic and Connor Murphy set to be joined by a complement of high-end prospects to round out their top six on defense, including Nolan Allan, Kevin Korchinski, Artyom Levshunov, and Sam Rinzel. Levshunov, Murphy, and Rinzel are all righties, giving the Hawks an even three/three split on handedness.

That also doesn’t include potential roster players Louis Crevier and Wyatt Kaiser, both of whom are pending RFAs needing new deals. There simply isn’t a spot for Brodie on next year’s roster, at least not one that involves significant playing time. Instead, they’ll allow him to pursue other opportunities on a new, cheaper deal instead of being saddled with the burden of an overpriced contract and likely ending up in the minors.

Flyers, Oilers, Sharks Linked To Jake Allen

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The Flyers, Oilers, and Sharks are among the most likely destinations for pending UFA netminder Jake Allen if he reaches the open market next week, according to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period.

Allen reaching UFA status on July 1 seems likely at this stage. The 34-year-old is coming off a strong season as the No. 2 to Jacob Markström in New Jersey. He’s due to command a larger chunk of cash than he usually would otherwise because of a UFA class devoid of starting options. It’s not a guarantee, though. Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald said earlier this month he’d make an effort to have Allen back in the fold next season and that there was some mutual interest in an extension.

Things have been quiet since then. Allen projects to land a two-year deal worth $3.5MM per season on the open market, according to AFP Analytics. With Markström likely to still receive the lion’s share of the starts as he enters the final year of his contract and the club looking to leverage its cap space to add to its forward group and get a long-term deal done for RFA defenseman Luke Hughes, that’s likely more than they’re willing to pay to keep him. They might be able to bring him back at a lower cap impact if they extend him a longer contract offer. Still, given his age and the fact that they have internal options like Nico Daws set to play next season on a one-way deal, it’s unclear if they’d be willing to offer him a three or four-year contract to bring the cap hit back down to the $2MM range.

That means Allen could be looking elsewhere for teams in a position to compensate him more up front and give him more than the 29 starts he received in New Jersey this past season. He doesn’t have a particularly lengthy resume as a starting or even 1A option, and he’s only hit the 40-game mark in a season once since 2019. Nonetheless, he played quite well in a 30-game slate last year behind much shoddier defense compared to how the Devils played in front of Markström. His .906 SV% and 2.66 GAA are above-average in their own right but translated to a far more raucous 18.4 goals saved above expected, according to MoneyPuck. That ranked ninth in the league and was more than names with more starts like Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Joseph Woll.

He’s a good option to challenge an unestablished younger tandem option for the lion’s share of starts as a result, especially on the short-term commitment he’s expected to command. That makes all of Philadelphia, Edmonton, and San Jose logical fits. The Flyers arguably have the largest need for him. While they have Samuel Ersson and Ivan Fedotov under contract through next season, they were both fringe NHL options at best in 2024-25. Ersson was arguably the worst starter in the league, logging a .883 SV% behind a relatively competent Flyers defense that kept his GAA down to 3.14. While he’s recorded back-to-back 20-win seasons and may still have upside as a backup or 1B option, it’s hard to imagine the Flyers making any reasonable progress in their rebuild if he starts 40-plus games again in 2025-26 based on his underwhelming two years as a starter. Fedotov, while expensive at over $3MM against the cap, could be a candidate for waivers or a loan back to Russia after struggling to the tune of a .880 SV% and -13.6 GSAx in only 26 showings this year.

The Oilers’ need for a goaltending upgrade after Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard combined for a .888 SV% in the playoffs and a .897 mark in the regular season has become painfully apparent. If they’re unwilling or unable to leverage Skinner’s value how they see fit in a trade for a bona fide starting option – a highly unlikely outcome – they’ll likely look to land a modest return for the cost-effective Pickard while acquiring an option with a more recent consistent track record to take pressure off Skinner to be the clear-cut No. 1. They could find that in Allen. At his projected cap hit, they’d still be devoting just $6.1MM to their goaltending tandem, and seeing if Skinner can produce better numbers in a more limited workload will be valuable in helping them determine how aggressively to pursue extension talks for the 2026 UFA.

With Alexandar Georgiev out of the picture, one of the Sharks’ top offseason needs is a veteran goaltender to pair with top prospect Yaroslav Askarov as he graduates to a full-time NHL role for 2025-26. Allen would be the best available stopgap option as Askarov shifts from what will likely be a 40-game workload out of the gate to a 60-game one in a few years’ time. Swapping Allen’s play for Georgiev’s subpar .875 SV% and 3.88 GAA last season is likely enough on its own to vault the Sharks’ record back toward the 70-point range after averaging 53 standings points over the last three seasons amid the darkest years of their rebuild.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

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The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  Next up is a look at Toronto.

The Maple Leafs’ consistent run of strong regular-season play continued in 2024-25 with an 108-point season and their first division title in an 82-game season since 2000. While they did advance further in the postseason than in 22 years, they blew a 2-0 series lead in the second round against the eventual champion Panthers and failed to make their first Eastern Conference Final of the Auston Matthews era. General manager Brad Treliving now faces the most pivotal offseason in Toronto in years with multiple high-profile pending free agents and significant spending flexibility.

Identify Marner Replacements

Mitch Marner was the team’s third-highest-paid player at a $10.9MM cap hit as he completed the seven-year deal he signed as an RFA in 2019. He was easily set to become Toronto’s second-most or even highest-paid player ahead of Matthews this summer – that is, if he stayed with the Leafs instead of testing the open market. That won’t be the case, and the Leafs must now change from devoting resources to a Marner extension to identifying who can most effectively replace his production and add depth to the forward lineup.

Treliving is not finding a direct replacement for Marner’s 100-plus points; that much is certain. The trade-off for losing one of the league’s premier playmaking wingers will be the freedom of cap space re-allocation to improve the club’s depth lines while putting more trust in Matthews to anchor the top one. There will be at least two wingers acquired in Marner’s stead, either via trade or free agency. They already struck out on one – they were pretty interested in Mason Marchment before the Stars traded him to the Kraken last week.

They haven’t been heavily linked to the consensus No. 2 and No. 3 wingers on the market behind Marner this summer in Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser. There has, however, been heavy speculation about a fit between them and veteran Brad Marchand. Coming off a second-place finish in Conn Smythe Trophy voting after rattling off 20 points in 23 games in Florida’s Stanley Cup win, the Leafs are in a better position to give him a lucrative mid-term deal compared to most other contenders and would give him the opportunity to play at home in Canada for the first timem in his 13-year career. Even at his highest feasible price point, they’d still have another $2.5MM to $3MM to spend on a middle-six winger to complement names like William Nylander and Max Domi while presumably slotting Marchand in Marner’s slot alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies (more on him later).

After striking out on a player with upward top-nine mobility at a cheap price point in Marchment, that appears to be a path Treliving is heavily considering. Former 35-goal man Andrew Mangiapane is heading to the market after a tough season with the Capitals and should be available around that aforementioned price point. Toronto is among the teams reportedly showing a keen interest in signing him when free agency opens on July 1.

Ramp Up Knies, Tavares Talks

The more cost certainty they have, the more active the Maple Leafs can be in achieving checklist item No. 1 in nine days. Right now, they have very little. Their top RFA, Knies, and their top UFA with a chance of extending/returning, center John Tavares, remain without new deals. It’s not the best omen. The tone around the Leafs and Knies’ negotiations has been overwhelmingly positive from the outset, with reporting last month indicating neither side was worried about an offer-sheet threat and that there was a mutual understanding of what the final deal would end up looking like. There seemingly hasn’t been any notable progress in talks since that point, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period said Friday.

There’s similarly no extension imminent with Tavares, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic relayed in the last couple of days. That’s the more concerning bit of news. An offer sheet is always a possibility for Knies, but he at least remains under team control past July 1, and he has to actually sign the offer sheet for it to be of any significance. Tavares hitting the open market and leaving without a quick succession plan in place could result in disaster down the middle without a ton of suitable 2C replacements on the open market, particularly after Matt Duchene recently extended with the Stars on a quite team-friendly pact.

The act of re-signing Tavares frees up cap space, not limits it. His next deal won’t come anywhere close to his expiring $11MM cap hit, cementing both a discount at the center position for Toronto behind Matthews and added cost certainty to firm up the roster around the edges behind whatever the largest open-market splash they’re able to make ends up being.

There’s also the stipulation that while losing Marner’s point production without being able to get close to reconstructing it by committee would be tough to swallow, losing Tavares’ output in the same manner would be disastrous. While the 34-year-old may not have been fully worth the cap space he was taking up at the end of his deal, he was still an incredibly high-end producer last season. His 38 goals in 75 games were 12th in the league and marked his second-best goal-scoring season as a Leaf. He was also top-40 in the league in points per game at 0.99. Aside from veteran stopgap Mikael Granlund, there’s no UFA center with that kind of output as his ceiling. Among trade options, young Wild pivot Marco Rossi would be the only one fitting that bill, but Toronto wouldn’t be willing to part with the NHL-ready assets Minnesota wants in return, considering their existing issues navigating roster turnover this summer.

Explore Cap-Clearing Trade

Despite the lack of easily attainable potential replacements for their pending free agents, the Leafs at least have nearly $26MM in spending flexibility at the start of free agency to remove that as an immediately limiting factor. They could still open up their window of options even wider and prevent an August/September cap crunch by shedding a low-value contract now. They don’t have many, but there are a few among their depth forwards. Veteran winger Calle Järnkrok is entering the final year of his contract at a $2.1MM cap hit and has minimal trade protection with a 10-team no-trade list. He could be well-positioned to land them a legitimate return at that price point, but he could also be a cost-effective rebound candidate for them, too. Injuries limited him to just 19 regular-season games last year and he was underwhelming in the playoffs, but he’s averaged 38 points per 82 games since signing in Toronto three years ago.

A more desirable deal to move if possible would be David Kämpf, making $2.4MM against the cap through 2026-27 with a 10-team no-trade list that lapses in the summer of 2026. That’s notable as a team acquiring Kämpf now could flip him again next season without any contractual obstacle. He was an increasingly frequent healthy scratch last year, had 13 points and a minus-one rating in 59 games, and saw his ice time dip to a career-low 12:24 per game when dressed. He’s a true redundancy with a cheaper, higher-ceiling offensive option in the mix next year in Scott Laughton after being acquired from the Flyers at the trade deadline.

There’s also the matter of veteran enforcer Ryan Reaves, who remains under contract at a $1.35MM cap hit. They can reduce that to just $200K by waiving him and burying him in the minors like they did for the home stretch last year. They’ll presumably do that again if he’s still on the books, but if they can make the deal someone else’s problem for a low-round draft pick, they’ll presumably explore that to open up as much spending flexibility as possible.

Upgrade Scoring Depth

Any cap savings created by Toronto’s turnover this summer outside of direct replacements or new deals for pending UFAs should be staying with the forward group. There are a few reasons for this. For one, there’s little to no maneuverability (or motivation) to alter the personnel anywhere else on the roster. The Leafs have one of the league’s most cost-effective goaltending tandems, and their veteran defense corps shone bright under head coach Craig Berube last season. Even if they wanted to make a change, they already have nine defenders signed to one-way deals for next season, most with significant trade protection.

The secondary roster construction goal for Treliving this summer needs to be helping the club rediscover its offensive ceiling. Their 3.26 goals per game was still top 10 in the league in 2024-25, but their lowest output since the 2016-17 campaign nonetheless. While they had six 20-goal scorers last year, the dropoff after them was steep, and only eight players hit the 30-point mark.

In the past couple of years, these types of pickups have needed to wait until closer to training camp, as was the case with Steven Lorentz and Max Pacioretty in 2024. This offseason, Treliving has the spending flexibility up front to get cheap depth pickups out of the way early, but he might be better served to wait a couple of weeks for prices to come down.

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.

Flyers Hire Todd Reirden, Dylan Crawford As Assistant Coach

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6/20: Philadelphia has made Reirden’s appointment official. They also announced they’ll be hiring Dylan Crawford to an assistant role as well. Crawford spent the last seven years in various video coaching positions across the NHL – first spending three years as an assistant video coach in Chicago, then getting promoted to head video coach for one year, and most recently continuing to serve the last three years as head video coach for the Vancouver Canucks. The 35-year-old Crawford’s move to assistant coach will mark the next big step in his young coaching career.

6/19: The Flyers have “made progress” toward hiring former Capitals head coach Todd Reirden to complete Rick Tocchet’s staff of assistants, reports Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff.

Reirden, 54 later this month, is the third and final assistant hire for the Flyers this offseason, concluding what’s been a complete staff turnover aside from goaltending coach Kim Dillabaugh. He’s likely geared as a replacement for former associate coach Brad Shaw, who took over as interim head coach in the final days of the season after John Tortorella’s firing but finished as the runner-up to Tocchet in their head coaching search several weeks ago. He’ll presumably manage the club’s defense group while new assistants Jaroslav Svejkovský and Jay Varady, whose hirings were announced earlier this month, will handle other duties.

Reirden, a former NHL defenseman himself, has spent his entire coaching career in the Metropolitan Division, mostly with the Penguins. He landed his first professional job there as an AHL assistant for the 2008-09 season but was promptly promoted to head coach when the Pens brought Dan Bylsma up from the minors to coach the NHL club en route to the 2009 Stanley Cup. Reirden spent one full season as head coach in WBS before being promoted again to an assistant role on the NHL bench in 2010. He spent four years in the role before being fired alongside Bylsma in the 2014 offseason.

The Illinois native was quickly scooped up by the Capitals to serve as an assistant on Barry Trotz’s staff, and he was named their head coach four years later when Trotz departed the organization following their Stanley Cup victory in 2018. Reirden compiled an 89-46-16 (.642) record in two seasons behind the Washington bench before being fired following the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Reirden then returned to Pittsburgh, where he again served as an associate coach under Mike Sullivan from 2020-21 until the former’s dismissal last year. While both he and Tocchet share a former employer with the Pens, their tenures didn’t overlap there. Nonetheless, he’ll get his next NHL job after not coaching at all during the 2024-25 season.

Sabres Listening To Trade Offers On JJ Peterka

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June 19th: Furthering Friedman’s report from Sunday, Frank Seravalli announced on the DFO Rundown podcast that the Chicago Blackhawks, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Vancouver Canucks all have confirmed interest in acquiring Peterka. Additionally, Sammi Silber of the DC Backcheck reported that the Sabres are asking for a right-handed defenseman to replace Bowen Byram on the roster, plus additional NHL-ready assets.

June 15th: The Sabres are listening to trade offers on winger JJ Peterka, reports Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. While they’ve been reluctant to consider moving Peterka as his name popped up in trade speculation over the last few months, “their answer has changed” to teams inquiring about his availability, Friedman said on Sunday’s 32 Thoughts podcast.

“It’s believed he would like to go somewhere else, and I just think that reality is sinking in a bit,” Friedman said. “I think the Sabres realize they have to at least look into it, and I think in the last little bit it’s gone from ’we don’t want to do it and we’re not doing it’ to ’we don’t want to do it but we at least have to look into it.’”

Peterka, a pending restricted free agent, is also viewed as a legitimate offer-sheet target if he becomes an RFA without a new contract on July 1. An offer sheet AAV in the fifth tier of compensation between $7.02MM and $9.36MM, in line with Peterka’s projected cap hit on a long-term extension, per PuckPedia, would net the Sabres a team’s 2026 first, second, and third-round picks. If a trade crosses the finish line, the return would presumably come above that value, considering the Sabres are a virtual lock to recoup those assets in a worst-case scenario.

The Sabres’ top-nine forward group has been in constant flux over the past couple of years. They’ve acquired Ryan McLeod and Joshua Norris down the middle, graduated prospect Zach Benson to NHL duties out of the gate, and shipped out Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, and 2022 top-10 pick Matthew Savoie in corresponding deals.

They find themselves in more unfamiliar territory with Peterka. Under general manager Kevyn Adams, the Sabres haven’t let negotiations with an RFA-to-be get to this point. They’ve either parted ways with hopeful core pieces after already signing them to long-term deals that weren’t panning out early on (Cozens) or traded them in-season in the final year of their contract with an advance understanding that they were far apart in talks (Mittelstadt). With Peterka, though, it doesn’t seem to be a case of the Sabres’ willingness to pay or commit to him – it’s the players’ uncertainty about signing long-term with the Sabres preventing a contract from getting done.

Buffalo has $23.2MM in cap space to spend this offseason with seven roster spots to fill, per PuckPedia. They have a pair of truly high-priced RFAs to contend with in Peterka and defenseman Bowen Byram, and it looked early on that they may only be able to sign one of them. They’ve been more active in soliciting/listening to trade interest in Byram but could understandably be more incentivized to keep him if they get the sense the situation with Peterka won’t result in him staying in Buffalo.

A trade is far preferable to an offer sheet in terms of compensation for the Sabres, who need at least a top-nine winger in return for Peterka to help them shoulder his loss and keep their postseason hopes alive in 2025-26, in addition to potential UFA signings, as they aim to end their playoff drought at 14 seasons. Peterka, a 2020 second-round pick, scored a career-high 41 assists and 68 points last season to tie for second on the club in scoring. That’s not easily replaceable production, and they’ll need to perform significant roster surgery to compensate if they do end up moving him.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for everyone with the Stanley Cup Final in the rearview.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

Expectations were mixed heading into the season for the Jets, who didn’t do a lot to reshape their roster after a 110-point season in 2023-24 while losing some key free agents as well. They managed to beat that record on the backs of continued dominance from their veterans, progress from young forwards, and an MVP-winning season from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Despite the best regular season in franchise history, though, they were dispatched by the Stars in the second round and have now won only two playoff series in the last seven years. General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff now needs to get them over the hump with the high-end core he’s already established.

Re-Sign RFAs

At first glance, the Jets are well-positioned to be major players in free agency this summer with $26.43MM in cap space, per PuckPedia. That’s because multiple key pieces are on expiring contracts, though. Two of them, top-line winger Gabriel Vilardi and top-four defenseman Dylan Samberg, are under team control and need new deals sooner rather than later so the Jets know how much of that cap space they can devote to free-agent pickups.

Vilardi is 25 years old and only has one season of team control remaining. That makes a bridge deal improbable and a long-term contract, even a max-term one, all the more appealing for a player who scored a career-high 27 goals and 61 points in 71 games this season. However, Vilardi’s lengthy injury history likely rules that out. Those 71 games played were also a career-high for the 2017 No. 11 overall pick, coming off his sixth NHL season. He’s missed 20-plus games in a year twice and has only cracked the 60-game mark twice as well. As such, the Jets are likely looking at a four-year commitment for Vilardi around $6.8MM per season, according to AFP Analytics. If he’s amenable to that price, they’d do well to get an agreement around there quickly to remove the threat of arbitration or an offer sheet.

Samberg, 26, is in a better position to command a longer-term deal. He’s just beginning his prime as a high-end second-pairing option with good defensive acumen, posting 20 points and a +34 rating in 60 games last season while averaging north of 21 minutes per game alongside Neal Pionk as Winnipeg’s No. 2 left-shot option behind Josh Morrissey. He’s shown linear development over his first few NHL seasons, and Winnipeg should be comfortable keeping him in his current role for the rest of the decade without much fuss. AFP Analytics projects a five-year deal with a cap hit in the $5.25MM range for him. Those projections still leave Winnipeg somewhere in the $14MM-$15MM range to spend on five roster spots this summer.

Backup Plan For Ehlers

The door isn’t closed on pending UFA winger Nikolaj Ehlers staying in Winnipeg, but it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to entice him with an eighth year on an extension. He’ll test the open market to see what’s out there for him, and the Jets will have to wait in line like everyone else.

That means Winnipeg might have to offer Ehlers a seven-year deal north of $8.5MM, potentially even in the $9MM range, per season to avoid him leaving for an environment with more opportunity for him in a first-line role or somewhere more financially advantageous for the 29-year-old Dane. He’s well-positioned to cash in on the heels of a 63-point season in 69 games, the former standing as one short of a career-high. If the Jets aren’t willing to push into that range to keep his services – a likely bet considering he continues to inexplicably average south of 16 minutes per game – they need to quickly identify targets in free agency who can either replace his output directly or help do so by committee.

Their cap flexibility means they should be able to do that relatively easily, but the Winnipeg market is routinely a hard sell to players who have multiple comparable options on the table. They’ll have to pick and choose their desired players and be quite aggressive with them. They don’t have prospects ready to step directly into Ehlers’ shoes, but perhaps someone like 2022 first-rounder Brad Lambert could at least step into a top-nine role and produce a 30-to-35-point rookie season (third-line fixture Mason Appleton is a pending UFA as well).

They could also opt to be aggressive in pursuit of a second-line center and keep Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti, usually Ehlers’ center/winger combo in some capacity last year, as wingmen for a new middleman. There aren’t a ton of options out there, though, particularly after today’s Matt Duchene extension with the Stars. They’ll be trying to land some names in the next tier of UFA forwards like Brock Boeser, Jonathan Drouin, Mikael Granlund, and Pius Suter as a result, without much worry about what forward position they play.

Add Center Depth

Winnipeg’s relative weakness down the middle behind Mark Scheifele will be exacerbated to begin the season. Captain Adam Lowry will spend the first couple of months of the season on the shelf after offseason hip surgery, and frequent fourth-line center option Rasmus Kupari is off to spend the next two seasons in Switzerland.

The prospects of a big move are unlikely unless they’re willing to be aggressive on the trade front for someone like Wild center Marco Rossi, but they haven’t been mentioned in connection with his availability, and it’s exceedingly unlikely Minnesota would consider trading him to a divisional rival anyway. That leaves them with pursuing stopgap solutions like the aforementioned Granlund and Suter, who have top-six mobility, but they need another name or two for added bottom-six depth as well.

One of those could very well be Jonathan Toews. The former Blackhawks captain has spent the last couple of years out of the league as he deals with Chronic Immune Response Syndrome, but has been connected to Winnipeg ever since he publicized his desire for an NHL return last year. The interest is mutual, Cheveldayoff said in January, and it appears the Jets are on the Winnipeg native’s small list of finalists as he nears a decision in the coming days. At worst, he’s a fine fourth-line swap for Kupari.

They’d still like to add another name, presumably a sub-$1.5MM player like Sean Kuraly or Nico Sturm are expected to be, to help shoulder the load in the early going and take pressure off young players to take on center roles out of the gate. Even with a potential high-priced Ehlers contract, all of this should be doable under Winnipeg’s cap structure if they’re responsible with their RFA deals.

Connor Extension Talks

If the Jets aren’t careful, they’ll have back-to-back summers where big-name wingers could depart Winnipeg. Kyle Connor is entering the final year of his seven-year contract, which carries a team-friendly $7.14MM cap hit, and becomes eligible to sign an extension on July 1.

The 2024-25 First Team All-Star at left wing enters his contract year coming off a 41-goal showing, his second time hitting the 40-snipe mark. They have a strong appetite to get something done this summer and avoid the situation they find themselves at present with Ehlers. Considering the more bountiful success Connor has enjoyed in top-line minutes in Winnipeg, it’s likely he’d be more amenable to a long-term commitment.

Finding what the “right” number should be won’t be particularly tricky. He’s a slam-dunk 35-goal man with an extended run of success and even finished top 20 in Hart Trophy voting this season. There’s no question he’ll become Winnipeg’s new highest-paid player on an extension, one that AFP Analytics projects to be eight years at $12MM per season. Amid the rising cap and names like Mitch Marner expected to sniff $14MM on the open market this summer, the Jets shouldn’t have too many qualms about dealing out that big of a raise.

Image courtesy of Connor Hamilton-Imagn Images.

Capitals Grant Ethan Bear Permission To Speak With Interested Clubs

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The Capitals will not be re-signing pending unrestricted free agent defenseman Ethan Bear and have given him permission to discuss a contract with other clubs before the opening of free agency on July 1, Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV reports.

This was the expected outcome for Bear, whom Washington signed to a two-year, $4.13MM contract in December 2023 after offseason shoulder surgery. The signing was a puzzling one at the time. Washington already had six surefire NHL defensemen under contract, and although they dealt with injuries on the blue line throughout that season, the multi-year term raised eyebrows.

By the time Bear signed with the Capitals, he’d established himself as a legitimate everyday NHLer. The 5’11” righty was coming off one of the better seasons of his career with the Canucks, although they opted to non-tender him amid a roster crunch and an unwillingness to pay his $2.2MM qualfying offer. He averaged 18:32 per game while posting 16 points in 61 appearances, also logging a plus-six rating with good possession impacts (51.0 CF%, 51.6 xGF% at even strength).

Bear settled in as Washington’s seventh defenseman after signing, only playing 24 games over three months before entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program in March 2024 and missing the remainder of the season. He averaged a career-low 14:54 per game over that stretch, recording four points and a minus-five rating with some of the worst possession numbers of his career.

As a result, Bear was on the outside of the Caps’ regular lineup when he returned to the club for training camp last fall. He cleared waivers at the beginning of the season and headed to AHL Hershey, where he spent the entirety of the season until being recalled as a healthy extra for Washington’s playoff run amid Martin Fehérváry’s injury.

Bear, 28 next week, was expectedly among the AHL’s best defensemen in 2024-25. He was a second-team All-Star after recording 46 points in 62 games. His two-way impact was arguably the best in the minors – his +33 rating was more than twice that of any other skater on Hershey. As such, there’s strong optimism around the league that he can return to being an above-average option as a third-pairing right-shot defender if deployed somewhere with more upward mobility. That place obviously won’t be Washington, where the Caps already have seven defensemen signed to one-way contracts for next season, not including pending RFA Alexander Alexeyev.

The 2015 fifth-round pick even had fine results in top-four deployment earlier in his career. While a rookie with the Oilers in the 2019-20 season, he averaged nearly 22 minutes per game while skating almost exclusively with Darnell Nurse on Edmonton’s second pairing. He had a career-high 21 points – 19 of which came at even strength – and helped the Oilers control 2.5% more shot attempts compared to when he wasn’t on the ice.

Amid a thin free agent market behind the top few players, particularly among right-shot defenseman, Bear aims to make a return to full-time NHL minutes at the right time for his market value. He likely won’t command a multi-year deal, but his past track record and strong AHL showing this past season will likely be enough to secure him a one-way pact and a legitimate shot at everyday minutes out of the gate.

Stars Sign Matt Duchene To Four-Year Extension

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The Stars have signed center Matt Duchene to a four-year extension, per a team announcement. It’s worth $4.5MM per season for a total value of $18MM. His deal carries a no-movement clause through 2026-27 before decreasing to a five-team approved trade list for the 2027-28 and 2028-29 seasons, per PuckPedia. The yearly breakdown is as follows:

2025-26: $3MM base salary, $3MM signing bonus
2026-27: $1.8MM base salary, $3MM signing bonus
2027-28: $3.6MM base salary
2028-29: $3.6MM base salary

Duchene could have tested the market as one of the top unrestricted free agent centers available, but he’ll instead opt to stay in a Dallas market where he’s excelled as a key top-six contributor over the past two years. In doing so, he takes a significant discount on his market value, at least on a per-year basis. A four-year offer at a much higher price may not have been out there for the 34-year-old, but AFP Analytics projected a three-year deal for Duchene to fall in the $7MM range per season if he hit the open market.

The 2009 No. 3 overall pick is coming off a spectacular 2024-25 campaign. While the Stars scored the third-most goals in the league, their offense was largely generated by committee. Duchene was the only Dallas player who played at least 25 games that hit the point-per-game mark, leading them in scoring with a 30-52–82 line while playing in all 82 games. Averaging over 17 minutes per game, it was the second time Duchene had hit 80 points in his 16-year NHL career and the fourth time he had hit 30 goals.

Duchene initially arrived in Texas on a one-year, $3MM contract for 2023-24 following a surprise buyout by the Predators with three years left on his contract. He posted 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games last year before taking a repeat of that deal to stay with the Stars last summer. It was a significant discount then, and he takes another significant discount now, locking in some highly-desired security through the rest of his mid-30s as well.

The Stars need any help they can get to ice a cap-compliant roster for 2025-26. Duchene’s steep discount certainly helps, but they still find themselves in a position to clear multiple salaries in order to even ice a full roster, let alone re-sign any other pending UFAs. Dallas now has just $455K in cap space with a roster of only 17 players, per PuckPedia. They need to open at least $1.9MM cap space at an absolute minimum via trades to be able to sign three league-minimum players for a bare-bones 20-man roster. In reality, they’ll move at least two of Mason Marchment ($4.5MM), Mathew Dumba ($3.75MM), and Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25MM) to open up far more than that to give them some in-season flexibility while not taking a catastrophic hit to their forward depth. Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, and Mikael Granlund remain as pending UFAs up front.

For Duchene, he’ll still be getting compensated more than his contract with Dallas indicates. The expiry of his new deal following the 2028-29 season lines up with when his buyout paychecks from the Predators will end. He’s still set to receive $6.56MM from Nashville in 2025-26 and then $1.56MM annually through 2028-29.

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images.

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