Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Buffalo.
It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo. Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end. Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks. The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.
Look At Adding A Veteran Starter
Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long. While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined. If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.
Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options. Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender. That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.
If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental. He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.
In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry. However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).
Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move. If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well. But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.
Extension Talks
The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st. Both players are in vastly different situations.
Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons. There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well. However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.
Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner. He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement. His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.
Then there’s Owen Power. Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season. However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal. Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now? That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career. Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.
Determine Olofsson’s Future
Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons. However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team. He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.
Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.
With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision. It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t. With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.
Is what he can do worth keeping around? If so, then they can start to work on an extension. If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters. With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.
Add An Impact Defenseman
Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end. In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.
Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well. Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.
Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba. Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years. Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.
There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06). Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Robbie Russo And Joseph Gambardella Sign With AHL Utica
Defenseman Robbie Russo and forward Joseph Gambardella were on two-way deals with the Devils this season and were slated to hit the open market this summer. However, they’ll remain with New Jersey’s farm team in Utica next season as the Comets announced that they’ve signed Gambardella to a two-year contract and Russo to a one-year pact.
Gambardella spent the last two seasons on a two-way deal with New Jersey but didn’t see any NHL action despite being relatively productive with the Comets. The 29-year-old had 35 points in 59 AHL contests this season, his second-highest AHL point total. His benchmark was 48 set with Bakersfield back in 2018-19 which is also the only campaign that Gambardella saw NHL action, picking up three assists in 15 contests with Edmonton.
As for Russo, he also is wrapping up a two-year, two-way deal with the Devils. The 30-year-old picked up 28 points in 72 games during the regular season while adding four helpers in six playoff contests but wasn’t able to earn a recall. He last saw NHL action back in 2016-17 with Detroit but is a veteran of 500 AHL appearances and should continue to be a mentor to New Jersey’s young blueline prospects.
Both players will technically remain NHL unrestricted free agents once the market opens up in July but it’s quite unlikely that they’ll receive an NHL contract. Instead, they’ll remain in the minors and hope to have their agreements converted at some point next season if injuries arise while New Jersey will have a couple of open contract slots that could be filled by someone else this summer.
Latest On Anaheim’s Coaching Search
The Ducks have had a head coaching vacancy since the start of the offseason when it was revealed that Dallas Eakins wouldn’t be back after spending four years with the team. GM Pat Verbeek is known to be casting a wide net as he looks to make his first NHL head coaching hire but there haven’t been many names connected to them thus far. However, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports (Twitter link) that Devils associate coach Andrew Brunette, Maple Leafs assistant Spencer Carbery, and Penguins assistant Mike Vellucci are under consideration for the spot.
Brunette is the only one of the three with head coach experience at the NHL level after being at the helm of the Panthers for most of the 2021-22 campaign. However, he wasn’t offered the full-time role (which instead went to Paul Maurice) and eventually landed on Lindy Ruff’s bench. It would have been understandable to think that Brunette was added with an eye on replacing Ruff but with the veteran working on an extension to stay with New Jersey, it’s possible that Brunette could be on the move. It would be a different situation for Brunette moving from a playoff team to one that’s squarely in a rebuild but the teams he has been with the last couple of years being strong ones offensively, that could be particularly appealing on a team with a lot of young talent up front.
Carbery has been viewed as a coach on the rise in recent years and after spending three years running the bench with AHL Hershey, he joined Toronto as an assistant in 2021. He has played an important role in coaching their power play, a group that has had considerable success lately, producing at a 26% clip this season, a small tick down from the 27.3% from the year before. Carbery is also known to be under consideration for the head coaching vacancy in Washington and if Toronto decides to make a change behind the bench following their exit against Florida, he’ll quite likely have a chance to get that role as well.
As for Vellucci, he has experience both behind the bench and in the front office having worked in various roles with Carolina for several years before spending a season as coach and GM with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in 2019-20 before joining Mike Sullivan’s staff as an assistant in 2020. Vellucci also has a long history at the major junior level, spending more than a decade as the coach and GM with OHL Plymouth. With the Ducks transitioning to a younger group, someone with plenty of experience coaching younger players could certainly be beneficial to Anaheim.
When Verbeek announced that Eakins wouldn’t be returning, he wouldn’t commit to any sort of timeline for when he’d hire his replacement but indicated he hoped he’d have his new bench boss in place by the draft. Considering the draft ends just two days before free agency opens up, it would make a lot of sense to have Eakins’ replacement in place before that time so Verbeek has roughly six more weeks to find Anaheim’s next head coach.
Kings Making Progress On Vladislav Gavrikov Contract
The Kings made a pair of additions just before the trade deadline this season, picking up goaltender Joonas Korpisalo and defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov in a trade with Columbus. While both players are set to have their current contracts expire at the end of June, it appears at least one of them could stick around beyond that point. Michael Russo and Eric Duhatschek of The Athletic report (subscription link) that there’s a belief that Los Angeles is closing in on an extension with Gavrikov.
The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22, picking up a career-best 33 points in 80 games while topping the century mark in shots on goal, hits, and blocks for the first time. Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, Gavrikov wasn’t able to maintain that level of production this season, dipping to just three goals and seven helpers in 52 games prior to the trade despite averaging 22:20 per game, slightly over his average from last season.
However, Gavrikov’s performance improved considerably following the swap. He spent a lot of time on the second pairing and the slightly lesser role seemed to work well for him, at least offensively, as he collected three goals and six helpers in 20 regular season games with Los Angeles. He logged nearly 22 minutes per night for them in the playoffs in their opening-round exit to Edmonton.
Gavrikov is coming off what could fairly be termed as his bridge contract, even though it’s one that walks him straight to UFA eligibility. His cap hit over the last three seasons has been $2.8MM while his salary this year was $4.2MM. It stands to reason that his salary this season could serve as a starting point for negotiations, especially if they’re trying to convince him to forego testing the open market in July.
If the two sides are able to agree on a deal, it could be the beginning of an interesting offseason for Kings blueliners. With Brandt Clarke likely to be on the roster full-time next season after dominating with OHL Barrie following his reassignment after the World Juniors and Tobias Bjornfot now waiver-eligible, there’s likely to be a bit of a logjam. There are already five other rearguards signed for next season not including Gavrikov plus promising defenseman Jordan Spence also waiting in the wings after spending most of the year at AHL Ontario.
Cap space is going to be a bit of a premium for Los Angeles next season as they currently have nearly $76MM in commitments for 2023-24, per CapFriendly. With the Upper Limit likely to be at $83.5MM, spending more than half that money to keep Gavrikov would only tighten things further. However, if keeping him would allow them to move someone like Sean Walker or Sean Durzi, they’d be able to use the savings from that swap to help subsidize Gavrikov’s new deal.
Both Korpisalo and Gavrikov played big roles for the Kings down the stretch and it’s quite possible that they’re going to take a serious run at keeping both of them around. But it appears that Gavrikov is their priority and it might not be long now before he puts pen to paper on a new contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Sullivan, Lomberg, Hainsey, Martinsen Lilleberg
There has been some speculation recently that a possible chain reaction of hirings could eventually result in Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan being let go and moving behind the bench for the Rangers. However, the bench boss poured cold water on that idea, telling Mollie Walker of the New York Post that he is “here for the long haul” with Pittsburgh. Sullivan has four years left on his contract with Pittsburgh and is expected to have some sort of say in who the team brings in to fill out their front office after dismissing GM Ron Hextall and Brian Burke at the end of the regular season. Accordingly, it stands to reason that he’ll be behind the bench when the puck drops on the 2023-24 campaign in October.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Panthers winger Ryan Lomberg was a full participant at practice today, notes George Richards of Florida Hockey Now (Twitter link). The 28-year-old suffered an upper-body injury partway through the first round against Boston and missed the entire second round versus Toronto. Head coach Paul Maurice indicated after practice today that his full team is available for the series opener tomorrow in Carolina so it appears that Lomberg will be back after missing the last eight games.
- Ron Hainsey is moving up the ranks at the NHLPA as Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli relays (Twitter link) that the long-time NHL blueliner is now their Assistant Executive Director. Hainsey, who played 17 seasons in the league with eight different teams, played a significant role in the search new Executive Director Marty Walsh and he has been rewarded for those efforts with a promotion.
- Coyotes prospect Emil Martinsen Lilleberg is on the move as Vaxjo of the SHL announced that they’ve signed the defenseman to a two-year contract. The 22-year-old was a fourth-round pick of the Coyotes (107th overall) back in 2021 and had three goals and eight assists in 46 games with IK Oskarshamn and is currently playing in his third straight World Championship with Norway. Drafted as a 20-year-old, Arizona only has Martinsen Lilleberg’s draft rights until June 1st so it appears that they will not be signing him based on this new agreement in Sweden.
Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Ottawa.
Expectations were high for the Senators this season. After acquiring Alex DeBrincat at the draft and signing Claude Giroux in free agency, a developing forward group got a lot more dangerous. They added a capable veteran goalie in Cam Talbot as well. The hope was those moves would help propel them into the playoffs. Instead, the team struggled considerably early on while dealing with some untimely injuries to key players. Even after making another big acquisition at the trade deadline in Jakob Chychrun, they ultimately came up short once again, extending their drought to six straight seasons. While they’re heading in the right direction, Ottawa still has some work to do this summer.
Resolve Ownership Situation
First and foremost, this team needs to get its new owner in place. Binding bids including a deposit were due to be submitted on Monday, bringing the process one step closer to a resolution. From there, the winning bidder, likely following another round of negotiations, has to be approved by the Board of Governors and lock in their financing before the purchase can be finalized.
Why does this matter from an on-ice perspective? It remains to be seen if the new ownership group will want to continue with Pierre Dorion as GM or bring someone else in. That uncertainty then carries over to D.J. Smith and the rest of the coaching staff; would a new owner and possibly new GM want to clean house? The sooner the new owner is in place, the better from an organizational certainty standpoint.
Deal With DeBrincat
When the Senators picked up DeBrincat a year ago, they thought they would be getting a quality top-line scorer. While he didn’t have a poor season, he didn’t exactly live up to expectations either. After picking up 41 goals in his final season with Chicago, that output dipped to 27 in 2022-23 although he set a career-high in assists with 39 to help him finish fourth on the team in scoring. That’s not terrible output by any stretch but it would be fair to suggest that they were expecting more from him.
DeBrincat is set to become a restricted free agent this summer for the final time as he’s one year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency. He’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility. On top of that, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rule which is the base salary of the final year of his contract. While his cap hit the last three years was $6.4MM, his salary this season was $9MM. That means the Senators must tender him a $9MM qualifying offer, something that Dorion has already they will do if it comes to that point.
So, will it get to that point? That’s the big question. Does DeBrincat want to do a long-term deal with Ottawa? Those are discussions that Dorion will need to have with his representation now to be ready to pivot, if necessary. If the 25-year-old appears to be leaning toward a one-year deal to hit the open market, it’s quite possible that the Senators will turn around and look to move him. That’s a move that’s a lot easier to make before the draft in late June while allowing the acquiring team to have time to negotiate a long-term agreement before the qualifying offer comes into play.
If DeBrincat opts to re-sign, there’s a good chance that a one-year deal would simply be him accepting the qualifying offer. While Ottawa could opt to take him to arbitration, a move that could allow their offer to come in at 85% of the qualifier ($7.65MM), such a move would be antagonistic toward longer-term discussions so they might not want to go that route. Similarly, if DeBrincat is qualified, there isn’t much of a chance for him to land considerably more than $9MM in an arbitration hearing, lessening the chances of him opting to go that way either.
Meanwhile, a long-term agreement is also likely to come in close to the $9MM mark. Ottawa’s highest-paid player next season is Tim Stutzle who has an AAV of $8.35MM. The Sens would certainly like to get DeBrincat in below that mark but it will probably take more than that to get him to agree. Regardless of which route both sides wind up going, getting this resolved sooner than later needs to be a priority.
Sign A Goalie
When Dorion moved then-unproven prospect Filip Gustavsson to Minnesota for Talbot last offseason, they were hoping that he and Anton Forsberg would form a steady tandem between the pipes. Instead, Talbot battled injuries throughout the year while Forsberg took a significant step back from his 2021-22 performance. While Forsberg is still under contract for two more seasons at a $2.75MM AAV, Talbot is a pending unrestricted free agent and has already been told that he won’t be back. That means there’s a spot to fill in the crease.
Internally, Mads Sogaard is still viewed as Ottawa’s goaltender of the future. However, the 21-year-old has just 64 career appearances at the AHL level and still has two years of waiver exemption remaining. While some young goalies can step in full-time in the NHL at that age, teams generally like to slow-play their netminders, allowing them to get frequent starts in the minors. It would make sense for the Senators to take that approach with Sogaard so penciling him in as Forsberg’s tandem mate shouldn’t be the top plan.
Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dorion look to find another Talbot-like netminder, one that he can sign for a year or two at a price point similar to Forsberg’s. That would up the floor in terms of production while allowing Sogaard the development time that he could still benefit from. It’s not a great UFA market for goaltenders but there are several second-stringers that should be available to choose from as things stand. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them kick the tires on the trade market as well but as long as they feel that Sogaard is their guy in the next couple of years, it’s hard to imagine they’d pay a high price to trade for someone to cover between now and then.
Rebuild The Bottom Six
With Ottawa missing the playoffs despite their upgrades up front, one might think that they had a lack of production from their top players. But they did have six forwards notch 20 goals while their top five forwards all had at least 62 points. Not many other teams can say that. However, they were in the bottom half of the league for goals scored.
The reason for that? They simply didn’t get much scoring from their bottom six with the exception of Shane Pinto (who was often pressed into top-six duty) or Derick Brassard, who’s a pending UFA. Mathieu Joseph didn’t score a single goal at even strength all season long, not the type of production they wanted from someone making nearly $3MM. Parker Kelly was an effective penalty killer but scored one goal in 55 games. Austin Watson and Dylan Gambrell had just 11 points apiece. This is one area that can reasonably be improved.
The good news for Dorion is that there are some open roster spots to work with. Joseph, Kastelic, and Kelly are signed while Pinto will be a restricted free agent. From there, however, there are openings to fill with Watson, Gambrell, and deadline acquisition Patrick Brown all set to hit the open market while Julien Gauthier, another late-season add, is a restricted free agent but whose arbitration eligibility makes him a non-tender candidate.
Prospect Ridly Greig could fill one of those spots which would certainly give them a boost offensively although he could benefit from more time with AHL Belleville as well. Recent signing Jiri Smejkal could be in the mix as well but might be it for internal options at this point. That will leave at least a couple of spots for players currently outside the organization to try to make their mark. There are often value contracts available for bottom-six forwards closer to training camp so this might be something that the Sens opt to slow-play.
Defensive Decisions
Dorion is going to be busy with his defense as well. Jake Sanderson will be eligible for a contract extension in July and given that Ottawa has typically moved to sign their core pieces a year early where possible (Brady Tkachuk being the exception), it’s reasonable to think that they’ll do so here. However, it could be difficult since he has just one NHL year under his belt. It also remains to be seen if they’ll be able to afford another big-ticket deal on the books. At a minimum, expect the team to initiate discussions on that front even if those talks don’t lead to the 20-year-old putting pen to paper on a deal.
Meanwhile, decisions need to be made regarding three other young rearguards. Erik Brannstrom is once again a restricted free agent and this time, he’ll have arbitration eligibility. When Vegas drafted him, the 23-year-old was regarded as a future offensive threat. That could still happen but Brannstrom has just four goals in 190 career NHL appearances so far. Is he still part of their future?
The answer to that question might be dependent on the answer to this next one. Are Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson ready for full-time roster spots next season? Both players were at least somewhat highly-touted prospects themselves but have yet to establish themselves at the NHL level. However, they’re both eligible for waivers next season. Are the Sens ready to pencil each of them onto the roster? It’s unlikely they’ll make it back to Belleville so if they’re not comfortable with them being up full-time, one or both of those prospects could become trade candidates.
There’s a further domino effect as well that pertains to Travis Hamonic. The pending unrestricted free agent has expressed a desire to return but what happens with the three youngsters will dictate whether that’s doable, assuming the two sides can also agree on what type of a dip in pay he’ll likely be heading for after making $3MM the last two seasons. With free agency roughly six weeks away, they’ll need to make calls on these players fairly soon.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Five Key Stories: 5/8/23 – 5/14/23
While the number of teams still in contention for the Stanley Cup continues to be cut down, there was plenty of notable news away from the ice which is highlighted in our key stories.
Flyers Set Front Office: The Flyers have found their replacements for former GM Chuck Fletcher. Daniel Briere has had the interim tag removed to become the full-time GM while long-time Flyer broadcaster Keith Jones takes over as President of Hockey Operations. While Briere has some front office experience as an assistant, it will be Jones’ first opportunity to work for a team. Some had wondered if Philadelphia would opt for an experienced President to offset Briere’s relative inexperience but clearly, that wasn’t the case. The two will be tasked with trying to get the Flyers out of the tough cycle they find themselves in as a team that has effectively spun its wheels in recent years and as a result, they could be heading for at least a short-term rebuild.
Suspensions: The fifth game of the Oilers-Golden Knights series was played without two key defensemen. For Edmonton, Darnell Nurse had an automatic one-game ban upheld after being assessed an instigator penalty in the final five minutes of the game before. Meanwhile, for Vegas, Alex Pietrangelo received a one-game suspension of his own for a slash on Edmonton forward Leon Draisaitl. The common sentiment was that Pietrangelo’s suspension was lighter than expected but both players returned to action on Sunday as the series continued.
Landeskog To Miss 2023-24: Throughout this season, the Avalanche were hoping that they’d get captain Gabriel Landeskog back from his knee injury, so much so that they opted not to use all of his LTIR room at the trade deadline. However, he was ruled out for the postseason before the playoffs began and now, he’s expected to miss the entire 2023-24 campaign after undergoing cartilage replacement surgery, a procedure that is a substitute for a joint replacement. That means that Colorado will be without one of their top wingers for two full seasons. Landeskog and his $7MM cap charge will once again be LTIR-eligible next season and it’s quite likely that the Avs will make full use of it this time around. The 30-year-old is signed through the 2028-29 season.
Treliving Unable To Interview: After stepping away from the Flames, some have wondered if Brad Treliving could be in the mix for any of the open front office vacancies around the league. However, that’s unlikely to happen as he is reportedly unable to interview with other teams until his contract expires on June 30th. Teams typically grant former coaches and executives permission to speak to other teams about positions while they’re technically still under contract but once in a while, that doesn’t happen. It appears this is one of those times.
Blackhawks Win Draft Lottery: The Draft Lottery resulted in a change at the top of the draft order and it was the Blackhawks who were the winners, moving up from the second spot to first, placing them in a position to draft WHL superstar center Connor Bedard next month. Bedard would immediately become Chicago’s franchise player, giving them a foundational piece as they work through their rebuild. Meanwhile, Anaheim, who went into the event with the top odds, won the draw for the second selection, positioning them to likely take Hobey Baker Award winner Adam Fantilli.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Vancouver.
After the team showed considerable improvement late in 2021-22 under Bruce Boudreau, there was hope that the Canucks could get back into the playoff picture. Instead, things went off the rails quickly with a long-speculated coaching change dominating the headlines for an uncomfortable amount of time. While there was improvement following the change that saw Rick Tocchet take over, they still came up short. GM Patrik Allvin has his work cut out for him this summer if he wants to get Vancouver back into the playoff picture.
Create Cap Space
If Allvin and the Canucks are going to be able to do anything in terms of improving this franchise this summer, they need money to do so. At the moment, they are projected to be over the cap next season, per CapFriendly, with multiple players still to re-sign. That’s not ideal, to put it lightly.
There could be some help through LTIR. Tanner Pearson’s playing future appears to be in serious question after recovery from his hand injury hasn’t gone anywhere near as well as planned. If he misses all of next season, his $3.25MM would then land on LTIR. Then there’s Tucker Poolman, who has dealt with lingering concussion trouble for the last couple of seasons and got into just three games this year. If those symptoms persist, his $2.5MM could land on there as well. Those two placements would at least give them enough cap space to fill out a full roster but still not make any material improvements.
Winger Brock Boeser has been in trade speculation for more than a year now and even though he has stated that his desire is to remain in Vancouver, that’s unlikely to change with a $6.65MM AAV for two more years. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli recently reported (video link) that the team is actively trying to move Conor Garland who carries a $4.95MM cap charge for three more seasons. While he’s a quality forward, the remaining term on that deal will hurt his value. Moving one of them would clear up some money plus a full-time spot for Nils Hoglander but Vancouver will be hard-pressed to get strong value in a return with how tight many teams are cap-wise.
Defensively, Tyler Myers and his $6MM price tag is one that could be on the chopping block. Notably, the bulk of his deal is paid out in a signing bonus during training camp and it stands to reason that he’d have more value then than he would today. Of course, that doesn’t help in terms of creating space for early-summer spending but it’s another avenue they could potentially pursue.
There are holes on this roster to be filled. But to fill them, they need cap space. To get that money, they’re going to have to move out a player of some significance, thereby creating another hole to fill. That’s going to be a tough needle to thread.
Work On Pettersson Extension
While some players underachieved offensively under Boudreau, that wasn’t the case for Elias Pettersson who was off to a strong start before the coaching change, notching 19 goals and 35 assists in 44 games. There might have been some concern that a coach that was interested in restoring some structure to Vancouver’s game might cut down Pettersson’s numbers. That didn’t happen. Instead, he was even more productive in the second half, tallying 20 goals and 28 helpers in 36 games, allowing him to reach the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. He was one of just 11 players league-wide to accomplish the feat. In short, he has become a legitimate top-line center.
In 2021, on the heels of an injury-plagued platform year, the two sides eventually agreed on a three-year bridge deal, one that carried a $7.35MM AAV while being heavily backloaded. The salary structure is notable as the relatively new qualifying offer rule applies to it; he’s owed the lower of 120% of the AAV or $10.25MM, the 2023-24 salary. 120% of the cap charge is $8.82MM and if you’re looking for a starting point for negotiations, there it is.
Realistically, the price tag is going to come in well above that, especially based on recent center signings including Islanders pivot Mathew Barzal who checks in at $9.15MM despite only passing the 65-point mark once in his career. It’s quite possible that a long-term agreement ultimately eclipses the $10MM mark.
There’s a case to be made that Vancouver should wait until next year to see if Pettersson’s production is repeatable. However, the salary cap is expected to have a sharper increase in 2024 and with comparables often being based on the percentage of the cap it takes up, that could drive the asking price upward at that point along with his arbitration rights. But, there’s value in taking care of your franchise players quickly and having early certainty about what he’ll cost moving forward can only help Allvin as he looks to reshape their cap picture. Accordingly, expect them to take a run at extending Pettersson when he’s eligible to sign a new deal in July.
Look Into Miller Move
The seven-year, $56MM contract extension that J.T. Miller signed back in September was supposed to take his name out of the rumor mill. However, with the Canucks struggling considerably out of the gate, that wasn’t the case as there was considerable speculation that he could be moved prior to the trade deadline. While that didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name come up once again, especially if they fail to find a suitable cap-clearing trade for one of their other pieces.
However, it’s important to note that there is a deadline for this to happen. Included in the extension is a full no-move clause which kicks in on July 1st. Vancouver could have allowed that NMC to roll over in his set-to-expire deal but opted not to. While it’s not impossible to move a player with trade protection, the options are certainly more plentiful when the player doesn’t have any form of trade restrictions.
While Miller wasn’t able to equal his 99-point output from a year ago, the 30-year-old still had a productive campaign, notching 32 goals while picking up 82 points in 81 games. Add that to a career-best 55% success rate at the faceoff dot and you have a player that is producing at a level worthy of the $8MM AAV. As a result, expect to see his name surface in trade speculation leading up to the draft as there should be some interest in him, especially with a free agent market that’s lacking in quality middlemen.
Defensive Decisions
Vancouver has a couple of decisions to make with their pending restricted free agent blueliners. Both Ethan Bear and Travis Dermott are arbitration-eligible this summer with arbitration eligibility. Both of them have shown flashes at times but neither of them is a guarantee to be tendered.
Let’s start with Bear, a player who has seemingly been on tenuous footing in recent years in Edmonton, Carolina, and now Vancouver. The Canucks picked him up in an early-season trade and he helped to stabilize an injury-riddled back end. However, the 25-year-old is best utilized in a limited role and a $2.2MM qualifying offer is on the pricey side for someone in that role, not to mention the granting of arbitration rights that the offer entails. Given their cap situation, can they afford that offer and the risk of a hearing? Bear has expressed confidence that he will get something done but it will be interesting to see if he winds up with a deal before the qualifying offer deadline to take the threat of a hearing off the table.
As for Dermott, he showed some upside in the past with Toronto but that hasn’t carried over to his time with Vancouver. Lingering concussion symptoms resulted in multiple IR stints and he played in just 11 games this season. Dermott was the first player Allvin acquired after being named GM so it’s clear he thinks Dermott can help this team. But with a $1.75MM qualifier and arbitration rights, that seems too pricey for them. That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Canucks try to work out a one-year deal worth less than that amount, allowing them to give the 26-year-old one more chance.
Vancouver also has a decision to make on pending UFA blueliner Kyle Burroughs. The 27-year-old played in a career-best 48 games this season, picking up five points and 165 hits on the third pairing. He fits in a depth role but it’s possible that his fate is tied to Bear or Dermott’s as they might not be able to keep all of them around. As a result, Burroughs might have to wait a while to see if he’ll be staying with his hometown team.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Sharangovich, Senators, Dubas
Devils winger Yegor Sharangovich took a step backward offensively this season, notching just 13 goals and 30 points after putting up 24 and 46 respectively in 2021-22. Things weren’t any better for him in the playoffs when he became a frequent healthy scratch. The 24-year-old is a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration eligibility and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relayed in a recent appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link) that there was some speculation around the trade deadline that New Jersey was considering moving him then over concerns about his arbitration award. While his playoff performance won’t bolster his case, his numbers from 2021-22 will likely push that award well beyond his $2.05MM qualifying offer and with the team needing to re-sign both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier and deal with several other UFAs, what Sharangovich could get awarded might be more than they can afford.
Elsewhere in the East:
- With final bids being due Monday for the Senators, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Melnyk family has informed the remaining potential suitors that they would like to retain up to 10% of the franchise in the sale agreement. It’s believed that there are six groups remaining in play although Garrioch notes it’s unlikely that all of them will wind up making a binding offer. At the moment, he suggests three bids are likely and three other groups are more uncertain.
- For anyone expecting immediate front office changes in Toronto following their second-round loss to Florida, that might not be the case. Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas is scheduled to speak to the media on Monday. Generally, if a team knows that they’re firing an executive, that person wouldn’t be taking questions. It doesn’t mean changes won’t be coming but, for now at least, Dubas remains at the helm.
Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at St. Louis.
It would be fair to say that the 2022-23 season didn’t go as planned for St. Louis. A veteran-laden squad, there was an expectation that they’d be squarely in the playoff mix. That didn’t happen. Instead, St. Louis was one of the bigger sellers leading up to the trade deadline before going and doing some of their summer shopping early with the acquisitions of Jakub Vrana and Kasperi Kapanen. While those pickups suggest they aren’t intending to bottom out next season, they’ll have some work to do this offseason to try to move back up in the standings.
Round Out Coaching Staff
Following a disappointing season like this one, some had wondered if there would be big changes behind the bench. That wasn’t the case as Craig Berube remains as head coach but he’s in need of a pair of assistants as Craig MacTavish and Mike Van Ryn were both dismissed the day after the season. MacTavish had been brought in to replace Jim Montgomery (who became the bench boss in Boston) while van Ryn had been on the staff for the past five seasons.
MacTavish was responsible for the penalty kill early on in the season before Van Ryn, who also ran the defense, took over. In the end, the penalty kill had a success rate of just 72.4%, good for 30th in the league. The Blues could opt to promote from within to fill those vacancies with AHL Springfield head coach Drew Bannister and associate coach Daniel Tkaczuk being the top options to move up. Otherwise, they’ll look outside the organization to round out their staff. This one isn’t a very high priority but it’s something GM Doug Armstrong will have to work on in the coming weeks.
Move Scandella
The optics for Marco Scandella’s time in St. Louis haven’t been great. The Blues acquired him from Montreal back in 2020 for a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-rounder. On the surface, that seems fine but the Canadiens had acquired him for a fourth-rounder alone just six weeks earlier. Yes, salary retention was a factor but it seemed like a high price to pay nonetheless. The four-year, $13.1MM extension he signed less than two months later also seemed on the high side. That deal has one season left heading into 2023-24 and it’s going to be a problematic one.
It isn’t that Scandella is a particularly poor defender. He’s a bit more of an older-fashioned rearguard who doesn’t jump into the play; he’s a stay-at-home player. Those aren’t in high demand anymore but he’s a situational player that can play on the penalty kill. There’s still a use for that type of player, just not at $3.275MM. With St. Louis having minimal cap space (less than $7MM per CapFriendly), that’s a premium for a sixth defender that they can no longer afford.
Of course, there aren’t many other teams that can afford that premium either. As a result, the Blues will have to incentivize a team to trade for him, further adding to those poor optics. Alternatively, they may have to look into buying out the final year of his contract. Such a move would save them $2.75MM next season but add $1MM to the books in 2024-25. In theory, they could waive Scandella and send him down in October which would free up $1.15MM in room but most of that would have to go towards a replacement body, making that scenario not a great one either. Frankly, none of them are ideal but if Armstrong needs some extra flexibility this summer, this is their best chance to get it and a move involving Scandella will need to be made.
Add Forward Help
One of the things that St. Louis will need cap space for is to add help offensively. The team parted with long-time veterans Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly prior to the trade deadline and while both players were potentially on their way out the door anyway as free agents, they didn’t exactly acquire impact pieces in those swaps, instead opting for futures-based returns. They were a mid-pack scoring team this season and with those two gone (plus Ivan Barbashev), there are some holes to fill offensively. They can hope for bounce-back years for Vrana and Kapanen but those two alone aren’t going to fill the void.
It’s not a great free agent market this summer for teams looking to add impact pieces up front but St. Louis does have three first-round picks at their disposal after acquiring top-rounders in both the Tarasenko and O’Reilly swaps. The period leading up to the draft in June could therefore be an ideal opportunity for them to acquire a top-six piece that’s either signed or under team control for several more years that can help replace the production from the veterans that were moved out.
Additionally, the Blues could also stand to add some help down the middle. They experimented with Pavel Buchnevich and Kapanen playing at center down the stretch to mixed results. It’s one thing to try these things when you’re just playing out the stretch but it’s unlikely that they view those two as full-season options at the position. Even among bottom-six options, those players would take up the bulk of the remaining cap space that currently exists.
Shop More Defense
Moving out Scandella fixes a short-term problem but St. Louis still has a particularly pricey back end. Their top-four defenders (Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy) are all signed through at least 2025-26 at a combined cap hit of $23.5MM. That’s a lot of money, especially when you add in a minimum of three other blueliners to round out the roster. While those four are certainly capable players, it would be fair to suggest that they’re not exactly getting the best bang for their buck.
On top of that, the Blues do have some promising youngsters that are on the cusp. Scott Perunovich dealt with injuries for most of the season but should be ready to be a regular next season. Tyler Tucker didn’t look out of place in his first taste of NHL action either and could be ready to be a full-timer on the roster a year from now. Finding room for them would be ideal, giving St. Louis another reason to explore a swap.
The easiest of the four to move is likely Leddy. It’s unlikely that they’ll want to move Faulk, Parayko’s term remaining on his deal hurts his value, and Krug is coming off a year to forget which would make it very difficult to move him for fair value. Leddy is the one on the shortest deal (through 2025-26) at the lowest cost ($4MM) which would make him the logical choice if Armstrong decides to try to funnel more money into his forward group to tackle the needs up front. There might be a short-term dip while Perunovich and/or Tucker get accustomed to a full-time spot but in the end, such an approach might be better for them in the long run.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.