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2016 Draftees Who May Play Immediately

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It’s incredibly hard for a teenager to play in the NHL, and never more than a handful of them do. That said, the 2016 entry draft has several candidates to do so this year. Here we’ll take a look at the chances that a few of the league’s top prospects make their debuts sooner, rather than later.

  • Auston Matthews – Matthews may be in the middle of a dispute with Leafs’ management over rookie bonuses, but a long-term holdout, which is rare for recently drafted players, is just about the only way he isn’t playing in the NHL next year. Matthews has the size to play in the league already, and has a year of playing with grown men in Switzerland under his belt. He also will be 19 when the season starts, rather than 18, because he was born right after the age cutoff. The last player to be selected first overall and not play in the NHL the next season was Erik Johnson, selected by the Blues in 2006. As a defenseman, Johnson was assumed to need longer to develop, and had already committed to playing college hockey.
  • Patrick Laine – Laine is expected to be one of the better goal scorers in the NHL pretty quickly, and given that, similarly to Matthews, he played in a men’s pro league last year, and succeeded at the IIHF World Championships for Finland, it would be hard to say he isn’t ready. Laine should fit in well with a strong offensive group in Winnipeg that’s getting younger and better at the same time.
  • Pierre-Luc Dubois – Dubois has a few advantages going for him. While his numbers don’t scream the type of player who hits the big leagues immediately, he’s already 6’3″ and over 200 lbs. He was also drafted by a Blue Jackets team that’s weak enough all over to provide very little competition, by a GM in Jarmo Kekalainen, who risked a lot of his reputation to select him over Jesse Puljujarvi and Matthew Tkachuk. Considering the speed with which he was signed, it’s easy to imagine him suiting up immediately.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi – Puljujarvi was one of the big three going into the draft, and the fact that he fell to the Oilers at four made some wonder if they’d just won the lottery again. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli told reporters that, if he can play, Puljujarvi gives them “more flexibility” in their search for a defenseman. Considering another winger, Taylor Hall, was traded for defenseman Adam Larsson three days later, it’s likely Chiarelli thinks he can play.
  • Olli Juolevi – Generally, defensemen are given less opportunity to play in the NHL right away, or at least significant minutes. There’s good reason for this, since we have examples of highly drafted defensemen like Luke Schenn playing immediately, and being too overwhelmed too early to learn any more as a player. Juolevi’s opportunity mostly stems from the weakness on the Canucks back end. Since they are one of a number of teams to openly pursue balance between the left and right sides though, that means he’ll have to compete with Ben Hutton, coming off a solid rookie year, 2014 draft pick Nikita Tryamkin, and Luca Sbisa, whose contract may just be too big to put in the press box.
  • Matthew Tkachuk – Another player that will be determined by circumstances. The Flames don’t have a lot of depth up front, but they also don’t have an absolutely glaring hole. They’ve got two players who are pretty much sure things, in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, and then Sam Bennett looks to be on the brink. After that, there are some plugs, and there’s some guess work. Tkachuk is big enough to play right away, but he’ll likely only get a shot if he can force himself into a top six role.
  • Mikhail Sergachev – Another defenseman whose team will certainly treat cautiously. Sergachev mostly makes the list because some have called him NHL ready, and he shares that same physical maturity with the other players list here. That said, he turned 18 the day after the draft, and he’d be fighting for the last defense spot with Mark Barberio and Greg Pateryn, meaning he won’t waltz onto the team. Sergachev had some short term misfortune being drafted highly by a team that was probably too good to be doing so, but long term, this is probably better for his development.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Carle

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In June, partially as a response to the re-signing of captain Steven Stamkos, the Tampa Bay Lightning bought out the remaining two years of defenseman Matt Carle’s six-year contract. Carle never found his footing in Tampa Bay, his possession numbers declined continuously, along with his ice time, and after putting up impressive seasons of 35, 41, and 38 points in his last three years with the Flyers, his 31 point year in 2013-14 is the only year with the Lightning where he finished with more than 22. This was all a particular disappointment, since Carle came with a hefty $5.5MM cap hit.

Carle made his name in San Jose as a puck moving defenseman, and was originally dealt to the Lightning in 2008, as part of the trade for Dan Boyle. This was a short-lived arrangement, as 12 games into his first term with the Lightning, he was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers for a package centered around forward Steve Downie.

Carle blossomed in Philadelphia, and was a consistent offensive presence for the Flyers, helping them reach the Stanley Cup finals in 2010, before losing to the Blackhawks. In that run, Carle scored 13 points in 23 games, playing primarily with future Hall of Fame defense partner Chris Pronger. He also appeared with teammates James van Riemsdyk, Ian Laperriere, and Scott Hartnell in the 2012 comedy This Is 40. By the time the movie was released, only Hartnell was still with the Flyers, in part because in July of 2012, Carle had signed his six year contract with the Lightning, worth a total of $33MM.

Potential Suitors

When it comes to players who’ve seen their careers hit the skids, it’s not uncommon for coaches and general managers who’ve worked with them before to look to give them a second chance. Former Flyers’ GM Paul Holmgren is still the team president, and may be willing to offer him a chance, and it’s possible to envision former Flyers’ coach Peter Laviolette pushing to get him to camp in Nashville, considering how much he’s relied on him before, though the Predators have a very deep defense core, so he may be difficult to fit in. Ottawa Senators’ coach Guy Boucher also has experience with Carle, though he was fired two months into said experience.

Then there are the San Jose Sharks, with GM Doug Wilson having drafted him in 2003. Granted, Wilson was only weeks onto the job in San Jose when he did so, and traded him fairly early into his career. After those teams, the list is fairly non-specific, open to anyone who could use cheap defensive depth. His salary and term won’t be restrictive.

Expected Contract

Carle’s age and recent history make him a gamble, and considering he lacks spectacular upside, at this point, that’s a gamble a lot of teams won’t be looking to make. Should he choose to continue his career, which just about every player wants to do as long as they can, and he isn’t old enough to assume he’d happily walk away, it will likely be by trying to stick through a training camp invitation. Should he make a team out of camp, he’ll probably cost in the range of $750k to $1MM, which is roughly what room a team has left to pay a depth defenseman at the end of camp.

 

Snapshots: Tanev, Ohlund, Barrie, Kreider, Vesey

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Jason Botchford of the Province writes today asking about the future of Canucks defenseman Chris Tanev. Botchford compares the possibility of such a deal to the Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall trade, suggesting that since Tanev is also a right handed defensive defenseman, but better at it, one should wonder what the Canucks could get in exchange for him if Larsson was able to bring a player of Hall’s caliber back to the Devils.

Botchford discusses Tanev’s prowess at things measured by analytics, and his conclusion is fairly tempered. He writes that the Canucks should certainly explore the possibility, but not be looking to give him away. Given Tanev’s age, that seems like a fair assessment. The Canucks may enter a rebuild stage if they don’t succeed this year. They’ll have a head start, given their relative wealth of young players. Because Tanev is just 26, it’s not hard to imagine him still being useful by the time the Canucks are ready to compete. If they can get high end young pieces from a team more desperate to win now, it would be worth exploring long term, but Tanev has too much value and is too young to be just dumped for the sake of getting younger. Tanev also plays the right side, something that is currently scarce, and highly valued. Data suggests that defense pairings should involve one player who shoots each way.

Here are some more links to start your hockey morning:

  • Speaking of skilled defensemen to have played for the Canucks, Aftonbladet in Sweden reports that Mattias Ohlund has retired at the age of 39. Ohlund, who also spent two seasons in Tampa Bay, has been out since 2011 with a knee injury, and has been on the Lightning’s long-term injured reserve ever since. It’s a sad way to go out, but Ohlund had a really strong career, and signed one of the earlier bonus-laden offer sheets with the Toronto Maple Leafs, though it was matched by the Canucks. Ohlund had yet to play a game in the NHL.
  • Mike Halford of Pro Hockey Talk at NBC Sports writes that now that the Avalanche have re-signed Mikhail Grigorenko, their attention is squarely on the status of defenseman Tyson Barrie. Barrie, who has an arbitration hearing nine days from now, has been subject to trade rumors all summer, and while Avalanche GM Joe Sakic says he isn’t trading him, the negotiations have been drawn out, and speculation has persisted. Barrie will turn 25 on Tuesday, and is coming off a season in which he scored 13 goals, and 49 points, following up on his 2015 year that saw him score 12 goals, 52 points, both very impressive for a defenseman.
  • Larry Brooks at the New York Post reports on the difficulties in the Chris Kreider arbitration case. Kreider, 25, is eligible for unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2018, meaning that a two year arbitration decision takes him to the open market, and a one year deal leaves the Rangers exposed to the possibility of a breakout year, and deciding whether to commit a lot of money and term, or letting him go to arbitration again, and then hitting the market.
  • Mark Divver of the Providence Journal tweets that Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman was in Foxboro, Massachusetts last night, watching unsigned Sabres prospect Jimmy Vesey. Vesey, who played at Harvard last year, and whose rights were traded to the Sabres by Nashville for a third round pick in June’s entry draft, can become an unrestricted free agent on August 15th, and says he plans to.

NHL Dismisses Arbitrator James Oldham

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Liz Mullen from the Sports Business Journal tweets today that the NHL has dismissed Neutral Discipline Arbitrator James Oldham.

Oldham, who also does work with Major League Baseball and the NFL, and teaches as Georgetown Law School, was responsible for the reduction in Flames defenseman Dennis Wideman’s suspension from 20 games to 10.  While there could be any number of reasons for the dismissal, the NHL was dealt a serious blow when Wideman, who had served most of his suspension by the time the ruling came in, was granted relative leniency for hitting an on-ice official, and there will certainly be speculation regarding the league’s motives.

Potential Undrafted And Non-NHL Free Agents In 2017

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Every year there’s a crop of players across European leagues, the NCAA, and Canadian major junior who, having gone undrafted multiple times, are eligible to sign with any team. This year, for example, the Panthers signed Moose Jaw Warriors left wing Dryden Hunt, and the Maple Leafs signed CSKA Moscow defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. In the past, undrafted free agents to garner attention included Artemi Panarin, Tyler Bozak, Ben Bishop, Jonas Gustavsson, Jiri Sekac, and Danny DeKeyser. While they garnered less attention at the time, Dan Boyle, Martin St. Louis, and Tim Thomas all had successful NHL careers after signing out of college or Europe, though Thomas was drafted and merely unwanted for a decade before he hit the NHL.

So, what players would be eligible to sign contracts next year, and could intrigue teams? Many will be heavily based on a strong season in 2016-17, but here are a few to start keeping your eye on. Spelling of names may be off due to varied sources in translating from different alphabets.

Vadim Shipachev (Center, St. Petersburg SKA, KHL) – This may be cheating a little, since he’s already garnered so much attention, and has been heavily linked to the Montreal Canadiens. Still, he has one year left on his KHL deal, and may, similarly to Zaitsev this past season, play out his contract and sign in Montreal next year. He’ll be thirty next year, but he’s coming off consecutive seasons of over a point per game, and has topped that mark three of the last five seasons.

Jan Kovar (Forward, Magnitogorsk Metallburg, KHL) – Kovar play on a line with two elite KHL scorers in Sergei Mozyakin and Denis Zarapov, both off this list mostly due to their age, both having turned 35 in March. Still, Kovar has finished third, first, and second on Magnitigorsk in scoring since joining them, and being much younger, at 26, it’s worth taking a chance that he’s the one driving the bus. He has 188 points in 172 KHL games, and was very successful earlier in his career, playing in the Czech Republic.

Igor Averin (Left Wing, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, KHL) – Averin, 26, has steadily improved as a goal scorer his entire career, with a variety of different linemates, finishing in the top ten in KHL goals this year with 21 in 49 games. His problem, should he seek a contract in the NHL, is that he’s 5’10”, and doesn’t project to be an elite scorer. Many teams prefer size and defense among their depth players, rather than having additional skill players.

Daniil Apalikov (Forward, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, KHL) – Another steadily improving player, albeit younger at 24, Apalikov had a breakout year for Lokomotiv, scoring 43 points in 59 games, including 16 goals. That’s not world beating at first glance, but KHL players put up more similar points per game ratios when joining the NHL than many think, and he played for a lower scoring team. He’s put up similar numbers to former teammate Sergei Plotnikov, who became a useful player for the Penguins and Coyotes this year, after signing in Pittsburgh in 2015,  though almost entirely in a defensive sense.

Nicholas Schilkey (Forward, Ohio State University, NCAA) – Schilkey is going into his senior year for the Buckeyes, and put up an impressive 41 points in 36 games last year. It was his first big season in college, meaning he’s going to have to prove himself this year, but his numbers this year were better than a comparatively aged Tyler Bozak put up in college in 2008.

Justin Kloos (Center, University of Minnesota, NCAA) – Kloos put up a strong 2016 season, at 22, he scored 43 points in 37 games, albeit with two teammates, Sabres’ prospect Hudson Faschinghttp://www.hockey-reference.com/players/f/faschhu01.html and the also undrafted Leon Birstedt, tied for third in Big Ten goals with 20.. Still, Kloos put up 16 goals himself, and led the team in points. He’s another smaller player, but given the history of undrafted free agents, like Martin St. Louis, it’s worth taking a chance on a smaller player who you can develop in the AHL for a year.

Snapshots: Arbitration Filings, Devils, Rangers, Girgensons

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Tim Wharsnby of CBC tweets that Mikhail Grigorenko will be asking for $1.65MM in arbitration, while the Avalanche will be offering $950K. Given Grigorenko just turned 22, and is coming off a 27 point season with little ice time, his ask is probably on the lower end of what players with similar values make.

Sticking with arbitration, former NHL defenseman turned TSN analyst Aaron Ward tweets that Rangers’ forward Chris Kreider is asking for $4.75MM in arbitration, while the Rangers have offered $3.2MM. This looks close enough that it might just settle in between. Kreider, 25, is coming off back to back 20 goal seasons, and is generally seen to be a part of the Rangers’ long term core.

Here are some more links from around the league:

  • NHL.com’s Mike Morreale writes today about New Jersey Devils prospects Pavel Zacha and Steven Santini, and their odds of becoming NHL regulars next year. Zacha, a 19 year old center taken 6th overall in the 2015 entry draft, played most of last year with the OHL’s Sarnia Sting. Santini, 21, played defense for Boston College last year, and was taken in the second round, 42nd overall, in the 2013 draft. Both played one game for the Devils this year, together against the Maple Leafs. Zacha had two assists, and Santini was a +2 on the night.
  • Robert Nasso at Today’s Slapshot writes that the Rangers may be turning a corner, praising the smaller adjustments they’ve made, and the their trade of Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad. He also speculates on the rumors surrounding Rangers forward Rick Nash, and their potential interest in Kevin Shattenkirk. While not mentioned in the article, it’s fair to wonder if Nash, who has extensive experience with Blues’ head coach Ken Hitchock, playing for him in Columbus and with Hockey Canada, would be of interest in return for Shattenkirk. It was reported in June that the Blues asked for another left wing, Taylor Hall, then of the Oilers, now of the Devils, in exchange for Shattenkirk at the entry draft.
  • The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington reports that while Zemgus Girgensons would like a two or three year deal, the Sabres may be hesitant to commit to him, given his offensive decline this year. Girgensons, 22, has always been seen as having potential, having been taken 14th in the 2012 entry draft, but put up just seven goals and 11 assists last year, in 71 games. The Sabres are also fairly loaded down the middle, and as Harrington writes, that could push Girgensons to the fourth line.
  • The NHL tweeted today that Devils forward Kyle Palmieri has been added to the American team for the World Cup of Hockey, replacing the injured Lightning forward Ryan Callahan. Palmieri, 25, is coming off a breakout year for the Devils, in which he scored 30 goals, and added 27 assists, playing in all 82 games.

Free Agent Profile: Dan Boyle

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Free agent defenseman Dan Boyle, who spent last year with the New York Rangers, is still searching for a contract. Boyle, 40, was ranked #42 on our list of the top 50 NHL unrestricted free agents this year. It seems unlikely he’ll return to the New York Rangers next year, despite the cap space they’ve cleared, given that they already have eight defensemen under contract, and four of them are right hand shots.

Still, Boyle has been a useful contributor his entire career, and remains so, despite going undrafted. Last year he put up 10 goal, and added 14 assists. His possession numbers were strong relative to a brutal possession team. Boyle won an Olympic gold medal playing for Canada in 2o10, and a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004. He’s on the smaller side, especially for defensemen, at 5’11”, but he’s always moved the puck well.

Potential Suitors

The Edmonton Oilers have been searching for help on the right side of their defense all summer, with just Mark Fayne and Adam Larsson there currently. The Toronto Maple Leafs bid for his services when he was last a free agent in 2014, and also look to need depth on defense, but the return of Roman Polak on the right side probably rules then out. His hometown Ottawa Senators could use right-side depth after Erik Karlsson, but it’s worth noting that they’ll likely give Cody Ceci every opportunity to fill the second pairing role. None of these teams seem especially appealing to Boyle, given their recent struggles. At his age, he’s likely to want to play for a serious contender.

That said, the Dallas Stars, winners of the Central division title, only have John Klingberg among right handed defensemen with significant NHL experience, though Stephen Johns, with 14 games played in the NHL, is under contract. The Philadelphia Flyers, who’ve been carrying many puck moving defensemen of late, may have a use for him. They have seven defensemen under contract, with Brandon Manning still to sign, but none outside of Radko Gudas play right handed, and several don’t appear to be locks for playing time.

Projected Contract

Boyle should be looking at a one-year contract at around $2MM, given that he’s still productive, but comes with a certain amount of risk as a 40 year-old defenseman. Still, he’s got enough rare qualities, his ability to carry the puck, his ability from the right hand side, that teams looking to balance their defense should seriously consider picking him up a a stop-gap option.

Capitals Sign Marcus Johansson To Three-Year Deal

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston tweets that the Washington Capitals have re-signed left winger Marcus Johansson to a three-year deal with an average annual value of $4.583MM.

Johansson, who will turn 26 in October, scored 17 goals last year, adding 29 assists, totaling 46 points last year. Johansson set career highs with 20 goals and 47 points in 2015. His highest asssist total was 36 in 2014. He will be eligible for unrestricted free agency when his contract ends in 2019.

The Capitals still have a bit of wiggle room, according to General Fanager, and with both goalies, thirteen forwards, and six defensemen signed, should have no trouble re-signing restricted free agent defenseman Dmitry Orlov after this move. The Capitals also have a significant amount of money coming off the books at the end of this season.

CapFriendly tweets that Johansson will get a modified no-trade clause in the second and third years of the deal, allowing him to block trades to five different teams.

Sabres Re-Sign Marcus Foligno

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The Buffalo Sabres announced today that they’ve re-signed forward Marcus Foligno to a one-year, $2.25MM contract.

Foligno, who turns 25 in August, scored 10 goals and added 13 assists last year, setting a career high in goals and points, and matching his career high in assists. Foligno was a fourth round pick of the Sabres in 2009, having played in junior for the Sudbury Wolves, who were coached by his father, former Sabre and current New Jersey Devils’ assistant coach Mike Foligno. He is the younger brother of Columbus Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno.

The Sabres have nearly $10MM in cap space, and their only restricted free agents currently unsigned are Rasmus Ristolainen and Zemgus Girgensons. They currently have six defensemen signed, and Foligno is their sixteenth forward under contract.

News And Notes: Kings, Flyers, Scrivens, Penguins

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The Los Angeles Kings announced today that they’ve signed 24-year-old center undrafted Patrick Bjorstrand to a one year contract. Bjorkstrand, the son of the Danish league’s Herning Blue Fox’s head coach Todd Bjorstraand, and brother of Columbus Blue Jackets’ prospect Oliver Bjorkstrand, scored nine goals, and 13 assists for the KHL’s Medveščak Zagreb last year.

Further links from around the NHL:

  • The Philadelphia Flyers announced via their website that forward Nick Cousins has accepted his qualifying offer. Cousins will earn $937k on a one year contract.
  • Former Maple Leafs, Oilers, and Canadiens goalie Ben Scrivens has signed with the KHL’s Dinamo Minsk, according to The Hockey Writers’ Alvis Kalnins. Scrivens played 15 games with the Canadiens this year, posting a .906 save percentage, and split the rest of the season with the Bakersfield Condors and the St. John’s Ice Caps.
  • The Pittsburgh Tribune’s Bill West speculates on Twitter that after re-signing Justin Schultz, the Penguins may be loading up on skating defensemen hoping that at least one becomes a significant contributor, and that if several pan out, they may be able to deal one later on.

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