PHR Mailbag: Yzerman, Bourque, Robertson, Larkin, Jets, Korczak, Carlsson

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the newest GM vacancy in Detroit, the Jason Robertson situation in Dallas, and much more.  With all of the questions submitted, we’re going to do four columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, keep an eye on upcoming mailbags.

Johnny Z: Who is Y’s successor. A successor should be more successful than he! Please skip past Kris Draper……

Let’s jump right in to the big news of the week, Steve Yzerman stepping away from Detroit’s General Manager position to become a senior advisor.  It’s worth noting that until a successor is named, Yzerman is still the GM.

You may not want to hear Draper but I’m sure he’ll get consideration, especially if Yzerman has any influence in the selection process.  He has been with the organization in some sort of front office role since 2011 so it’s quite reasonable to think he’ll be interviewed at least.  Shawn Horcoff (who has held various roles since 2016) should get an interview as well.  Both are currently assistant GMs.

I’m going to suggest a few other names as well.  Ryan Martin has some ties to Detroit and is currently an assistant GM with the Rangers.  He has interviewed for several GM roles and it feels like only a matter of time before he gets one.  Outgoing Bruins assistant GM Evan Gold went pretty deep into interviews for a couple of teams this year by the sounds of it so he probably gets consideration as well.  Tom Fitzgerald is still out there and given Carolina’s success, it wouldn’t shock me if AGM Darren Yorke at least gets an interview.

But I think Detroit will basically repeat the past with the hiring of Yzerman’s replacement by hiring Brendan Shanahan.  He has years of experience running the show in Toronto (more on that shortly) and of course has plenty of ties to the organization and community.  Installing him as Executive VP (the other title Yzerman has) with a less-experienced GM working underneath him (any of Martin, Gold, or Yorke qualify, if not one of their internal AGMs) seems like the safe way to change things up.  I think taking the safe route is what they’ll ultimately prioritize.

FearTheWilson: Which was the bigger fail: the Yzer-plan or the Shana-plan?

This is an especially fitting question given how I just answered the last one.  The good news (I suppose) is that I’d have Yzerman’s tenure as the bigger negative between the two.

With Shanahan, there was at least a general baseline of some success.  The Maple Leafs were a consistently strong regular season team that regularly made the playoffs.  Did they underachieve?  Sure.  But there was a rebuild with talent accumulation (a pretty good group of talent, to be fair) and a sustained period of something better than mediocrity.

Compare that to Yzerman’s tenure.  Detroit didn’t make the playoffs once, didn’t rebuild, and with how some of their recent draft picks are developing, even the asset accumulation section has taken a bit of a beating lately.  Even if you don’t factor in his captain wanting to be traded and just compared the team’s success rate, something going somewhat right (Toronto with Shanahan) beats almost nothing going right (Detroit with Yzerman).

letsgonats: Do you think Dallas sold too low on Bourque? I do. They got a 27 2nd and 28 3rd (via Vegas). And Nashville quickly locked him up for $33M for six years.

They also threw in Lyubushkin who I think could have gotten a 3rd by himself. At over $5MM AAV in an offer sheet would have netted DAL a 1st and a 3rd. Why did they pull the trigger so soon?

I don’t think Mavrik Bourque would have been offer-sheeted in the $5MM range, knowing the compensation it would have taken.  If a team wanted to do one, the target would have been $4.775MM, the same amount Barrett Hayton received from New Jersey.  That still would have put the screws to the Stars while only costing the signing team a single second-round pick.

In essence, they got the second rounder for him and the third rounder for Ilya Lyubushkin as you suggested.  The veteran blueliner was someone they had been trying to move for a while with no success; it was thought by some that teams wanted an incentive to take on the final year and $3.25MM left on his contract.  (Though, with some of the deals signed in free agency, that price doesn’t look quite so bad now.)

I’m sure GM Jim Nill wanted a better return but he was up against the gun to a point.  As soon as Bourque signed an offer sheet, any leverage was gone and the return would have been less than what they ultimately got (unless a team put one in at the higher price tag which seems less likely).  And they still would have had Lyubushkin’s salary to offload.

From a straight-up value standpoint, I agree, the return for Bourque seems light.  But given the circumstances (including the Jason Robertson situation and a second leaked trade that fell through along with few movable pieces to open up cap space), I don’t think they had a choice.  This way, they got the offer sheet value plus a bit more, plus get Lyubushkin’s deal off the books to help in their efforts to retain Robertson.  It’s underwhelming but I don’t think they could have realistically done much better given everything else involved.

bottlesup: What do you think the eventual outcome will be between Robertson and the Stars? Long-term deal with Dallas or someone else? Do you think a Larkin for Robertson swap makes sense? Thanks!

For Robertson, can I go with neither, at least for this year?  As of this moment, I think the likeliest scenario is that it’s a one-year deal, whether it’s through an arbitration hearing or pre-hearing settlement.  That might be the only way to afford him without drastically having to shake up the rest of their roster for the upcoming season.

In an ideal world for them, there’s also a wink-wink-nudge-nudge side agreement that says on January 1st when he’s extension-eligible, he signs a seven-year deal in the range of $15MM per season.  That’s more than the ask is now but that’s reflective of there being no RFA year in the agreement and the acknowledgement of how close to UFA eligibility he’d be.  That would only hit the books in 2027-28 when Tyler Seguin is no longer under contract and they would be able to afford it much easier.  Both sides get what they ultimately want which is a long-term contract; it just would take a little longer to get there.

I don’t dislike the idea of a Dylan Larkin for Robertson framework but unless Dallas is really worried about controlling long-term costs, it’s not something they have to do, assuming they can squeak him in using my approach above.  The Stars have solid center depth in Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, and Matt Duchene so it’s not a need-driven move although Larkin would open up some options and keep their current cap structure intact.  Meanwhile, Detroit would get a much-needed scoring winger but would be entirely bereft of quality centers and we know how hard those are to get.  I think there would have to be a second trade lined up to land another pivot and given the uncertainty now in their front office, I’d be surprised if something like this got done.

deca guard: Would a Larkin for Harley deal be one-for-one?

Well, here’s a different idea.  We know the Stars are open to moving Thomas Harley given his reported inclusion in the deal that would have sent Zach Werenski to Dallas but in that swap, they were getting a franchise defenseman in return.  Their blueline is already viewed as being a bit iffy despite the presence of Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell and further weakening it to add at a position they’re already deep in (at center) probably isn’t the best idea.  I say that while acknowledging the salary difference might be enough to get Robertson locked up long-term now which is an important consideration.

Similarly for Detroit, this leaves them without one above-average center, though a very promising back end.  As I noted in the last question, there would have to be something else in place and given their GM situation at the moment, that’s not happening.

In terms of straight-up value, if all the above concerns weren’t in place and there was a need for them on the acquiring teams, I’d say Dallas would have to add.  Larkin’s contract is arguably below-market now and he’s signed for five more years while playing the premium position.  I think that’s worth a bit more than eight years of Harley on a richer price tag.

Cla23: Do the Jets have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL?

Is Yager ready to be #2c?

The good news for Winnipeg is that Stuart Skinner should be an upgrade on Eric Comrie as the backup goalie.  But knowing that Skinner is prone to periods of wild inconsistency, I’d have a hard time elevating Winnipeg to the best goalie tandem in the league.  I’m also not entirely convinced that Connor Hellebuyck will be there when the season starts either so I’m not going to make that proclamation just yet.  If he’s there, they’re among the best but probably not the best. 

With your question about Brayden Yager, I’d say he’s ready to be the second-line center in AHL Manitoba next season.  I don’t think that’s the team you’re asking about though.  In terms of being Winnipeg’s second-line pivot in 2026-27, I’d say the answer is an unequivocal no.  He’s coming off producing 10 goals in 68 games for the Moose, hardly production worthy of top-six NHL time, or frankly any NHL time coming out of training camp barring a rash of injuries.  Add to that the extra challenges associated with being an impact center at the NHL level (the defensive responsibilities, for example) and that’s too much, too fast for Yager.

Jolly Roger: Do you see a rational explanation of the Korczak/Wotherspoon trade? On the surface of it, Dubas gave up the better player on a cheaper deal and he even retained. Considering McCrimmon was desperate to make room for extending Andersson, you would expect Dubas to get paid for gifting cap room to Vegas. Yet it was the opposite in every respect.

It appears that there is only one GM in the league to whom every other GM is only too happy to make a favor. Do you have a view on this?

I think I do have a rational explanation for this swap after admittedly going through the same initial thought process you did.  For 2026-27, yes, Pittsburgh gave up the better and cheaper player while retaining.  But what about the next three years?

Korczak is beginning a four-year, $13MM contract this coming season.  It seemed steep a few weeks ago but then we saw some crazy contracts get signed and suddenly, this one doesn’t look half bad at $3.25MM per season.

Wotherspoon, on the other hand, is an unrestricted free agent next summer and will make much more than the $1MM he’s getting this season.  AFP Analytics projects a four-year extension worth around $4.75MM per season.  Given the state of the marketplace since those projections came out a little back, that could be on the low side.

So, what’s better for Pittsburgh?  Four years at $3.25MM per for Korczak or one year of Wotherspoon at $1MM and the next three around $4.75MM to $5MM?  The Penguins have tons of cap space right now so why not use some of that to achieve some potential savings from 2027-28 through 2029-30?  I think it was that type of money thinking that was used in the deal although I agree that Vegas got off pretty light given their dire need to free up cap space.

I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing that Dubas is willing to do some moves like this.  They’re often deals of minimal consequence and there could be benefits from them down the road.  Sometimes they’re financial as outlined about, maybe there’s a return favor in the future when the tables are turned.  Considering Montreal was able to offload half of Brendan Gallagher’s contract for free, I’m not sure there was any sort of significant sweetener foregone in this trade.  I just think they’re higher on Korzcak than a lot of people are.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What are you planning to be doing in 2030 when the next lockout hits because the Carlsson deal is going to set off a storm that will break owners.

Call me an optimist (which isn’t the case very often) but I don’t think the Leo Carlsson contract is a lockout-causer down the road.  Yes, it was a whopping overpayment that will have ramifications but the overpayments were coming either way.  This contract is good news for Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard who probably get a bit more now but those ones were going to be the precedent-setters that really reflect where the league is going money-wise.

And where the league is going money-wise is why I’m not too worried about a lockout.  It’s going to be hard for either side to argue for a different share of the revenues when it’s a 50/50 split of Hockey Related Revenue (HRR).  As long as HRR keeps going up, the cap is going to go up and salaries are going to go up, leading to more eye-popping figures in the years to come.  More money in the system leads to more money on contracts.  This is the wave of the present so if a lockout is coming in 2030 (we were still active during COVID so I imagine we’d still be up and running in a lockout), it’s going to be something else that puts them there.  Think term limits, restrictions on trade protection, redefining what’s part of HRR, etc.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images.