The Winnipeg Jets were a powerhouse last year in the regular season, winning the Presidents’ Trophy thanks to a historic season from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who secured his third Vezina Trophy as well as the Hart Trophy. Unfortunately, Hellebuyck and the Jets ran out of steam in the playoffs and were ousted in the second round.
The Dallas Stars unceremoniously knocked them out in just six games after Winnipeg narrowly escaped the first round against St. Louis, scoring in the final second of Game 7 before winning in overtime. The Jets weren’t expected to finish as high as they did last season, and after the summer they’ve had, they probably face lower expectations next year.
So, the question is: has Winnipeg done enough this summer to stay competitive in the Western Conference?
On the surface, teams that lose one of their top players to free agency generally don’t come away with a better group. That is precisely where the Jets find themselves after forward Nikolaj Ehlers took his talents to the Carolina Hurricanes, signing a six-year $51MM contract.
With Ehlers out of the picture after many months of speculation that he’d move on due to a lack of ice time, the Jets quickly took action to replace the loss. Winnipeg opted to replace Ehlers’ offense by committee rather than with an individual move, which was probably not a choice, but rather a necessity given their limited options.
Winnipeg decided to dive into the free agent market and managed to put together a few promising options to compensate for the loss of Ehlers’ offense. Their first move was to re-sign 37-year-old Jonathan Toews to the NHL after a two-year hiatus due to health issues.
The Winnipeg native hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season, and it’s uncertain what kind of contribution the three-time Stanley Cup champion can deliver. The last time Toews played, he scored 15 goals and added 16 assists in 53 games, ending with a -31 rating.
Since he was dealing with health problems then, it’s unfair to judge his past performance or predict similar results going forward. Still, he hasn’t played in the NHL for two seasons and is now 37 years old. Few players ever make a triumphant return in their mid to late 30s after a long absence, with Mario Lemieux being a notable exception.
It’s a gamble for the Jets to rely on Toews returning to his best, but if he does, he could replace a significant part of the offense Winnipeg lost when Ehlers went South. However, if he doesn’t, the Jets still have the option to pivot and use some of their substantial cap space to bring in extra help during the season. Winnipeg has nearly $20MM available under the cap with four players left to sign, so they should be able to leave room for mid-season acquisitions.
On July 1, the Jets also signed veteran forward Tanner Pearson to a one-year, $1MM contract. Pearson was a durable player early in his career, but injuries over the years have derailed his play, and he is now a shadow of his former self.
He was a decent playmaker at one point, but has become a liability on the possession front in recent seasons. That said, he comes to Winnipeg cheaply and should be able to produce around 25 points in a bottom-six role.
His impact on the Jets’ offense will be minimal, but given the low cost, Winnipeg could do much worse. It’s hard to believe, but Pearson is just 32 and posted 12 goals and 15 assists last season in 78 games, so there’s still some gas left in the tank for this season with the Jets.
The Jets also handed out a matching one-year, $1MM contract to forward Cole Koepke after he established himself as a regular NHL player last season. In Boston, the 27-year-old Minnesota native scored 10 goals and seven assists in 73 games while averaging just over 11 minutes per game. He will produce very little offense, but should provide the Jets with a player on their fourth line who can skate, get physical, and play a low-event, stable game.
Finally, the Jets signed the player who could provide the most offense in Ehlers’ absence, and that is 35-year-old Gustav Nyquist. The Halmstad, Sweden native played for Nashville and Minnesota last season and saw his offensive production drop sharply, falling from 75 points in 2023-24 to just 28 points last season.
His decline is quite puzzling, as his underlying numbers were decent, but everything that could go wrong for him did go wrong. He is still a good passer and could put up better numbers with Winnipeg if given the chance to play alongside some stronger players.
Nyquist will likely finish next season with over 28 points but is unlikely to repeat his 75-point performance. If he can raise his game and reach around 50 points, that would be a big win for Winnipeg, which is paying him just $3.25MM next season on a one-year deal.
Ultimately, the Jets made a series of low-risk, short-term signings in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. These stopgaps will hold things together for the Jets as they aim to build on the success of this past season.
It’s hard to predict whether Toews, Nyquist, Pearson, and Koepke will be enough to replace the loss of Ehlers, but if they are, the Jets could be just as good as last season. If not, Winnipeg can always consider an in-season trade to boost its lineup.
Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Still don’t see how they beat the Avs or Stars in a playoff series.
Absolutely not. They added a bunch of aging bottom six guys. That’s it. That’s all they did. Losing Ehlers, Tanev, Appleton, Kupari and replacing them with Toews, Nyquist, Pearson and Koepke doesn’t make them better.
The Jets refuse to address their bad bottom pairings on the blueline, Schenn, And Stanley are atrocious, Then Miller, Fleury, Heinola. Ouch!
No, they are definitely not better than last year, but not much worse. You just can’t replace Ehlers, but still should be a Top 3 Team next year. As for the Avs and Stars, they got worse as well, probably more so than the Jets. Vegas is the team to watch out for in the West.
They still have a first rd pick and tons of cap spacer to use at the trade deadline
Vilardi is a nice point producer, but he’s slow, not physical and might be hurt at any given time.
Don’t see how that formula works in the playoffs against more complete top lines.